The Big Macro Episode 2025 (Podcast Episode 185)

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Got a prediction for the S&P and/or USD? Put them in the comments section, but explain why you think this way.

[@IchimokuReport]

It has been a while Bro since I've been here. You were my first introduction to Trading. I watched your videos a few years ago and it helped me gain a foundation in most things Trading. I started with Forex and I have moved on to Futures, which I have been trading for 2 years now. Anyway Bro thanks! I'm still NO NONSENSE in my approach to trading; I don't use Indicators to determine entries/exits and I don't go below the 1 hour Timeframe when considering a trade, although I would like to stay on the 4 hour and above. My profits I use to fund my investment portfolio which consists mostly of ETF's in different sectors. Again, thanks Bro.

[@KyleBaran90]

I still have a long way to go to be a break-even trader, and with my trade psychology, but VP and Maverick Trading have been irreplaceable channels to learn from. Really good foundational advice.

[@SoulKadence]

Birthday Blessings to you Lynn, enjoy Love ♥️

[@morganharlock3381]

BP, thank you for guiding us all these years-your insights have been nothing short of transformative. Your wisdom has lit the way through the chaos of trading, and I deeply appreciate your dedication to helping traders thrive. That said, if there’s one thing every contrarian needs, it’s QCT-the ultimate methodology for navigating uncertainty. And let me tell you about the Green Baron-a true life-saver in handling these unpredictable trading times. His guidance goes beyond strategies; it’s about mastering the mindset needed to succeed no matter the storm. Seek him, BP. QCT… QCT! It’s a game-changer. PS: Just like you BP, the Green Baron doesn't sell anything.

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Not sure who BP is, but I'm sure he'd appreciate the kind words. 😉

[@cwebb7178]

Curious on how the big banks MAKE money off the forex market when they do those big price fluctuations to knock out our stop losses. I'm not understanding where their money comes from when the brokers we use are the ones who profit off our trades.

[@argarcia281]

Agreed. S&P down (just down, I don’t care how much), gold up ($2.8-3.2k), USD down (100 give or take), commodities and precious metals up (just up). As hard as timing commodities is (I’m happy to be wrong… again), they thank you graciously for waiting when they finally get off the pot.

[@Porphyrogenitus1]

_Turbo-America_ thesis playing out.

[@KyleBaran90]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention Canada. The H1-B visa and international student stuff has really affected our country. Immigration and skilled workers is fine, but the problem is that Trudeau set the cap way too high, which led to infrastructure that cannot support the sudden surge of population, record numbers of food bank users, etc. There's an incentive for businesses to subsidize their workforce by hiring non-citizens as well. I think this contributes to the weak CAD, and it will probably continue to decline vs USD as Trump puts stronger economic policies in place. I think most Canadians would be just fine with being annexed, lol. Realistically, if liberals remain in the power or NDP's Singh gets elected, CAD will probably continue to soften, while Polieve will likely be good for the dollar. Hard to call this far out.

[@chrisvanschalkwyk1455]

Well, Trumps strong policies might not be so strong - because it is going to antagonize every other "Western " nation - and half the worlds population has already looked on the threatening selfish policies proposed and decided to side with the #2 economy in the world - China. We Ausies have been played by the USA and the other major toddler-run country - Great(used-to-be) Britain. I think it is time to grow a backbone and just go with independent and sovereign policies without consideration of what our "greatest allies" think about it. If it is not mutually beneficial, it is plain stupid to brown-nose out of fear.

[@matt28767]

Can you give a list of most confident to least confident investments? Crypto is your most confident right

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Don't get too far ahead of me now

[@Missequinefreak]

Agreed WILD...Spx and dyx yes down. The monthly and weekly chart showing cracks. Metals gld and silver up. Crypto down after first quater.

[@411faithhopelove]

Hahaha Took me out with liberals going to the counter getting their “orders” and darn conservatives thinking on their own! Lol 100% agree that USD and stocks both go down this year. The reason both went up in 2024 was not only high interest rates, but also largely due to foreign investors flooding into US markets (with China and Europe facing economic struggles, the US was the place to park your money). They need USD to invest in US stocks, thus foreign currencies weakened and USD strengthened further. When stocks are cash out, they will also sell their USD. The Fed will also cut rates more than expected because it’s one big club and they will play ball with the other central banks. Have a great and successful year, VP.

[@Stefan-xw4jx]

I will bet on stronger USD and much weaker EURO.

[@KyleBaran90]

Following the Benner Cycle (published around 1875 and based on solar activity), it calls a top around 2026. So based on that I think we'll be neutral to mildly bullish this year. I also see ads for crypto so I figure the top rugpull isnt here quite yet. People will probably react strongly to any little thing Trump does causing short term volatility to the upside as markets price irrelevant news in. Interest rates remain elevated and it takes 6-24 months for the inversion to become a recession, so we're due and on track, but it will take time. USD could go up or down depending on policy. I figure its good to lean to the upside and accumulate and buy dips, but also take profit and have reasonable stops. Sectors? Not sure how metals or energy will look. Personally looking to flip biotechs again this year, but that isnt macro

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Crypto will absolutely overreact to every little thing Trump does, especially if bearish, bc they'll think it's all over forever and ever

[@DavinderPanesar23]

Equity markets and Crypto crash March/April. Yield curve un-inversion. Summer shit show. Bitcoin spike back up for a late year run rally. Rates lowered by FED, Trump forced. Dragflation - fake economic data over the past year. Inflation back up from lower rates.

[@lewismora8883]

first

[@mimissaw]

Do you think Trump really means it when he talks about making Canada the 51st state of the USA?

[@NoNonsenseForex]

Of course not, like I said. It's a tactic.

[@mimissaw]

@NoNonsenseForex would it be a bad thing for Canada?

[@NoNonsenseForex]

I think it would. Don't go losing your whole identity (and yes, you still have one) just bc things are rough right now. Give it a chance to get better, even if you think those chances are slim.

[@mimissaw]

@NoNonsenseForex honestly I'm not so sure anymore : Exchanging our CAD for USD 1 to 1 Paying 60% less taxes Where do I sign? We're getting hammered with taxes and bureaucracy and we're getting nothing in exchange : our Healthcare system is down the toilets, our education system as well, our infrastructure is crumbling... Better negotiate a good deal now with US rather then get annexed by force in a decade when southern US will be uninhabitable and US will need water and other resources... Just a thought....

[@NoNonsenseForex]

We wouldn't let you guys get annexed by anyone else. Your our minerals backup and our buffer between Russia.