What a Second Biden Term Would Look Like

President Biden gave a raucous State of the Union speech last Thursday, offering his pitch for why he should be president for a second term. It’s the clearest picture we have yet of Biden’s campaign message for 2024. But while he listed off all kinds of proposals, it’s not as easy to parse what a second Biden term might actually look like. So I sat down with my editor Aaron Retica, who had a lot of questions for me about the speech itself and what Biden would be likely to accomplish if he got another four years in the job.
We discuss how my argument for Biden to step aside (www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/op...) holds up after he gave such a deft, high-energy performance; what a second Biden administration would likely do when it comes to abortion rights and foreign policy; the issues that didn’t receive much attention in the speech but would likely play a huge role in a second Biden term; the strongest 2024 campaign message that I’ve heard so far; and whether this is a Locke election or a Hobbes election - and what that means.
Book Recommendations:
Tip O'Neill and the Democratic Century (www.amazon.com/Tip-Neill-Demo...) by John A. Farrell
A Nation Without Borders (www.penguinrandomhouse.com/bo...) by Steven Hahn
The Field of Blood (us.macmillan.com/books/978037...) by Joanne B. Freeman
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [e-mail].
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast (www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-k...) . Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-... (www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-...) .
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing from Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.

[@Ryanandboys]

Inflation is not down when my maintenance on my truck now cost $1500 vrs $400 in 2020 and my mortgage is $3800 vrs $1300 a month energy cost is $1000 vrs $400 a month in winter. CPI was totally changed and doesnt relate at all to what our actual costs are. Its useful for the fed but is definitely not coming down prices are still going up almost double what the feds target is even after the take out housing and energy.

[@blacknrd05]

You fucked up with a truck. Something tells me you're not a smart person either 🤷🏾‍♂️

[@ruffey1748]

Central Banks don't include the cost of increased interest rates in the CPI, probably because that's what they use to try and bring inflation down. I think what we're seeing in this inflationary period is the legacy of the post-2008 money waterfall the Fed turned on and left running for 14 years. They printed so much money and poured it into the financial system at such low interest rates, their usual trick of increasing interest rates to deter price rises hasn't worked as quickly this time.

[@AwkwardTruths]

So, this is how it works (I think). Prices increased 9%, a $1 candy bar will cost $1.09. Then inflation drops to 3% the following month but that does not mean the $1.09 candy bar decreases in price -- it means that the candy bars next price will be $1.09 x 3% or $1.12. While true that a month-over-month decrease from 9% to 3% is good, that does not take away the damage the 9% did to the economy AND that 9% is 'baked' into the cost forever (unless we have negative inflation).

[@Conway773]

It’s quite possible you are exaggerating my friend. My mortgage came down and my car service hasn’t jumped that much. Do you comparison shop :)

[@conor2439]

We need more diversity in construction. That's definitely a top issue.

[@Ryanandboys]

😂 huh? Most people don't like to work in construction and it's looked down upon. Companies are desperate to hire anyone that can fog up a mirror.

[@neilwinnen1138]

I’ve been trying to listen to this guy for a while. I give up. He is the definition of a person that talks out of both sides of his mouth. Either you support something or someone or you don’t. What does this guy stand for? Muddy water.

[@gman-gx6gg]

It's supposed to be neutral stance podcast. It's the NY times.

[@merelymaterial]

he has a 30% chance of dying during his term (that's not counting a debilitating event like a stroke or a fall)

[@charliesimar7541]

Joe has a competent team and a VP ready to step. I am NOT worried.

[@merelymaterial]

@@charliesimar7541 you aren't but the American people are. Kamala Harris has one of the lowest approval ratings in history (even lower than Biden)

[@LoveyK]

That could be true for both Candidates.

[@merelymaterial]

@@charliesimar7541 KP has even lower approval ratings than Biden

[@neelakan678]

@@charliesimar7541 VP? Who? LOL

[@Dalshin]

looked and sounded like hysteria breaking loose

[@AwkwardTruths]

Let's see, this term: 40-year-high inflation, 40-year-high mortgages -- housing in general has seen historic rent increases. Gas is going up again. Food prices are going up again. Second term: More of what happened in the first term but with more spending (inflation) and a hard focus on green initiatives (green deals usually increase the cost of most sources of energy).

[@josephdrury5802]

I will take this point by point; "40 year high inflation" heavily caused by the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, 40-year-high mortgages heavily caused by the under-construction of housing in the past +- decade, "Gas going up" as a result of the Russian invasion. None of these were caused by Biden (nor trump)(

[@MrBruno656]

CA-HSR hi speed rail California was Feinsteins husband owning land there as part of the formula + the engineering firm wanting to build all the new bridges & trestles. Talk to the California Rail people.

[@sarahcline8488]

I have to laugh at why people say no to more taxes being taken out of the rich, because it should be. If you are like me and my family we live paycheck to paycheck. I am on SSI and only get $300.00 from the state a month. Which my husband would have to pay the rest. Our bills every month are $870.00 that is NOT including food, gas and car maintenance for that month. Last time Taxes went up was when Obama was president and he raised taxes for the rich. It's time taxes come out of the wealthy. It's why I would rather Biden win over Trump when it comes down to tax reform. He wants taxes to come out of the pockets of corporations and the rich. Good I say.. Instead of us as in lower class because Middle Class no longer exists. America was built on the backs of regular Americans not the rich and super rich. If you can afford several mansions in this country and other countries and have two or three sports cars something is wrong someplace. I agree taxes need to go up but on the rich and super rich. We are not made equal in this country if you don't bring home $100,000 or more a year. It makes me sich to struggle every month where the rich sit back and laugh at normal Americans.

[@56spider]

do you know the skill it took to design, assemble and manufacture an internal combustion engine for the past 125 years? Gone. So what are our "new guests" (unskilled) going to do exactly. Plumbing? Electricians? Replace the old plumbing of the entire nation : maybe. Replace the "telephone" poles in all 50 states? maybe. Rebuild Maui? Poetry and Literature? Tambourine players? If we were downsizing our workforce with all the "new tech" and all the "work from home" why import more workers?

[@hadiza1]

💜

[@merelymaterial]

he's got the best doctors in the world, i do wonder what secret concoction they loaded him up with before SOTU

[@presidentmando]

The Biden campaign got to Ezra Klein!

[@Edo9River]

Prescription drugs ❤❤❤❤?

[@charliesimar7541]

Let me suggest that Joe actually does know what he is doing, and he is up for the challenge. Unlike the deranged, failed Insurrectionist.

[@montyiscool11]

We need a new measure of inflation, one that reflects expenses by the average citizen. That said, climate and democracy are most important, so Biden, of course. Trump is only 4 years younger and often talks in a way that, were he my Dad or Granddad, I'd be taking away the car keys. I don't want to wake up 10 years from now and see that Trump has ended elections.

[@AwkwardTruths]

So, this is how it works (I think). Prices increased 9%, a $1 candy bar will cost $1.09. Then inflation drops to 3% the following month but that does not mean the $1.09 candy bar decreases in price -- it means that the candy bars next price will be $1.09 x 3% or $1.12. While true that a month-over-month decrease from 9% to 3% is good, that does not take away the damage the 9% did to the economy AND that 9% is 'baked' into the cost forever (unless we have negative inflation).

[@mahmoudeidksa]

It would be boring like his first term. Moreover it would be a disastrous foreign policy shamble

[@blacknrd05]

Chaos is instability is the other option

[@5kribbles]

Biden gave one good speech performance, that doesn't change the fact that he is 81 years old. This doesn't say anything about his day to day energy and competence level.

[@Ryanandboys]

As someone who has worked in construction (I own a small excavation business) I think it was absolutely hysterical to believe that Democrats could lead in increase in building anything 😂. It is extraordinarily hard to build anything in a place like Massachusetts where I'm from all the nimby's all the environmental regulations all the labor regulations but then you go to a more right-wing place like say North Carolina you can pretty well do whatever you want there about a third of the price to build the same home and you can actually get it done on time. Democrats simply cannot with their coalition lead to any large increasing construction in the real world the last time that was possible was when FDR was around before the environmental movement. Construction productivity per worker hour is down 50% since 1975 All due to the increase in regulations of all sorts.

[@jonathanklabunde6639]

The only issue with that is you skip all the longer term planning and end up with contamination all over the place (NC case in point). So you’re right that it definitely works for a single generation and then things look dumb and short-sighted in retrospect (which they are).

[@Ryanandboys]

​@@jonathanklabunde6639I don't think you need to skip long-term planning. Dem areas just simply don't want anything else changed or built, the planning boards are made up of the current homeowners in that jurisdiction that are highly motivated to limit any construction or change And then they often cite federal or state environmental regulations to justify the reason why something shouldn't be built. For example my sister owns 14 acres and a very rich suburb of Boston they have been trying to build for 9 years spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on all the applications and environmental studies and it's just one single family home but there is a seasonal trickle that they would have to build a gravel driveway near which a driver exist lol and all the people in the zoning board don't want another house so they keep bringing up all these EPA regulations saying how it's a wetland and you can't build within 150 ft which means they can't make a driveway to actually build on the land. They also brought up some endangered species act reasons and now they have to do is study on that I mean this is absolutely insane building one single family home on 14 acres is not going to kill any species or contaminate a river that's 15 mi away. It's a good thing taking way too far as a weapon they yield to block housing.

[@miyojewoltsnasonth2159]

I thought Ezra Klein was popular on the left? 6,518 views in 4 days?

[@LittleOrla]

And most comments negative.

[@scooterdogg7580]

Ignorance is bliss. Lmfao

[@lbr88x30]

The administration has already passed legislation that has directly benefitted me, but accomplishment by the administration is a nice to have. The important part is preventing project 2025 and preventing a corrupt, inept person who promises to be a dictator from taking office.

[@neelakan678]

You can't choose a young dem?

[@LittleOrla]

We can only hope that Trump or RFK - or both! - get elected.

[@stephenboyington630]

I did not watch the SOTU. Did he mock Lindsey Graham? If he did, I guarantee Lindsey's reaction was to call his Mee-Maw afterwards and say "Did you hear that, Mee Maw? They were talking about ME!!"

[@catholicconvert2119]

Nothing. His second term will be nothing

[@sheilamishra2710]

😊p😊😊oo😊😊o😊😊o😊😊o

[@MD-mm1zv]

Second term? Seriously?? Let’s see if he can crawl across the finish line of the first one, shall we? Lol…

[@miyojewoltsnasonth2159]

Second term for whom? Trump or Biden? They're _both_ kind of a joke, aren't they?

[@johnnyel]

Completely biased dialogue. Why don't you do everyone a favor and get a fair and balanced debate on issues and stop with your blue bubble dialogues. "Insurrectionist" drivel.

[@ewilson9734]

Who wants another biden term? The country cant withstand another term with that guy

[@newyorkny533]

Can anyone say YOU HAVE 0% CREDIBILITY NOW!

[@miyojewoltsnasonth2159]

To _whom?_ Ezra Klein? Joe Biden? Donald Trump? *Reply to:* _"Can anyone say YOU HAVE 0% CREDIBILITY NOW!"_

[@KDFRxpo2]

You think the SOTU address was good? Ha ha ha. It was a joke sir.

[@miyojewoltsnasonth2159]

What specifically did you dislike/disagree with? You didn't bother to mention anything specific. Anybody reading your comment is just guessing. *Reply to:* _"You think the SOTU address was good? Ha ha ha. It was a joke sir."_

[@KDFRxpo2]

@@miyojewoltsnasonth2159 The address was a campaign speech. It did not address extreme crime, energy independence or the threat to Israel from terrorists. No mention of high inflation and a plan to get it under control. I you have to ask what was wrong with the SOTU address; You’re part of the problem

[@DSTH323]

Medicated performance! What will he look like in 2- 3 years?

[@neiljeffers4746]

Gossip girls 😊

[@missshroom5512]

4 more years! Biden❤️🤍💙 If you look back 30 years it seems Republicans messed things up and Democrats then cleaned up. Unfortunately for Democrats sometimes it takes awhile to do that cleaning so it looks like there is not much change when we finish the cleaning up and headed towards progression

[@SocialismSucks]

Have you seen Haiti🇨🇳