Oct 3, 2024: Blocked Pattern thru Mid-October | High Winds Great Basin thru Northern Plains & ...

[@golawnboygo]

best long range (10-15 day and beyond) pattern views anywhere. Keep up the great work!

[@MikeJordan-n3n]

Serious rainfall deficits began here in north central Kansas in July 2021. Starting then, each year we've missed nearly 1/3 of normal precipitation (25" is average here). Even when a month has "normal" rainfall we haven't replenished subsoil moisture. Ponds are empty, wells are running dry. When we miss one rain event crops suffer or die. We're currently harvesting 15 bu/a soybeans, other fields which received one timely rain were on the low side of normal. Even now it appears the 80+ degree wheat is drying out the ground so our newly planted winter wheat won't germinate. The last time it was dry for so long was the 1950's. It's starting to feel like this will never end. Is this long term drought going on even more years?

[@thomaswozencraft6577]

excellent report. Thanks.

[@danl9334]

thanks for the update, looking forward to the long term outlook tomorrow!!!!!!

[@JamesRegis-g9j]

Dry wind again today in SE Kansas. The weather here continues to be crap. There is nothing whatsoever to look forward to, it’s incredibly depressing.

[@pamelalee5075]

What you mentioned about the sub seasonal factors interrupting a La Nina is why I wondered what they were during the 2021/22/23 La Ninas. There was exceptional drought and plenty of mild temperatures during those La Nina winters in the Canadian Prairies. Matt used a height anomalies map yesterday that displayed the Provincial borders.

[@Nutrien_AgSolutions]

Thank you for catching that! I will get those borders added to my maps. Not sure how I let that section of the code get missed! As for the La Niña's, typically only about 30% of the background state of the atmosphere can be attributed to La Niña during a 3-month time period of Dec-Feb. So the sub seasonal changes are far more impactful. For example, you could have really mild weather with little snow, and then in February get 3 or 4 systems in a row that completely fill the mountains with snow.

[@pamelalee5075]

30% is very low. And that's why you often mention not to rely solely on a La Nina or El Nino when forecasting. Thank you​@@Nutrien_AgSolutions

[@AlexMohring]

How do you interpret the big divergence between Extended GFS Ens and Extended ECMWF Ens for Brazil? It seems you are focusing on ECMWF solutions, so I assume you think it is more reliable here.

[@Nutrien_AgSolutions]

yes. Plus the Extended ECMWF has been around for a long time. The new extended GFS came out last year (if I remember correctly) and it has a very strong bias toward its initial conditions. So if it starts dry, it stays dry. The ECMWF has a similar bias, but seems to be less sensitive to it.

[@KevinW-jk2gr]

We're so dry and charred out here in the SW! Make it stop!!!!

[@kevinnoah-i4o]

Them windmills are speeding up the wind. 😂😂

[@johnmullies1807]

We need some across the conus! Storm track is active enough, just in wrong place to deliver. I can see it shifting south, but much later into Fall like Mid-Nov. Until then, indian summer is fully entrenched

[@dustinkoller6599]

Upper Midwest will have no snow this winter and there will be blow torch temperatures

[@michaelleffler4759]

does the bermuda high contribute to the lackof monsoons in brazil

[@Nutrien_AgSolutions]

yes - I think it did for most of September bu not allowing for the air along the equator to moisten significantly and then turn the trade winds so that they could easily blow towards the south west (off the equator towards the Amazon and Northeast Brazil).

[@paulpasman9341]

On the USA area ..has been wind been picking up over the last 50 years...r there maps that show this ...thanks from your viewer in northern Indiana

[@paulpasman9341]

Is the jet stream getting faster

[@JamesRegis-g9j]

52 freaking days since our last rain!!! I don’t count 15/100s when we were supposed to get over an inch two weeks ago. That’s not rain, that’s crap. 1275 days since our last +5.5” rain.

[@everardomunoz2699]

very unusual the winds for october usuall that happen on spring time march or april

[@RobertHill-cr8rt]

Strong La Nina likely. Told you that long time ago. Makes me 12-0 vs any so called weather experts