On Avian Flu, Part I: Is a Pandemic Coming?

[@kirklandlake]

Watched this in 2007 and here we are in 2020 with the current pandemic circumstances. This video came in mind last winter when trouble began to spread.

[@Urgelt]

Honestly, I did not envision a pandemic as bad as this one is proving to be - nor its source, nor how bad our leadership would be in responding to it. I recommend the Peak Prosperity KZbin channel for news and information about the pandemic. They're doing a better job than I ever could.

[@SanguineYoru]

@@Urgelt Glad to see you're still around - why have you stopped making videos?

[@ronbunn1349]

@@Urgelt But they could never read poetry like you…I recently showed my dad your recording of The Highwayman; we listened to it while working, instead of music. He was captivated. Thanks for leaving your videos up, and here’s to hoping one day you would return to posting.

[@kenrg]

Scary, but necessary information. I appreciate that you're able to share this without talking down to your audience, and that your calm voice and pacing does not turn scary information into simply another fear video - It raises an alarm, but not a panic: a subtle but important difference.

[@Ditkasdozen]

Boy was this spot on

[@Urgelt]

I'm glad you found them useful, Nuemonichero. I hope to be around for a while, but of course the future is not ours to know.

[@koolkidz588]

you are a VERY learned and well spoken individual, love your videos, great insights!..and yes please dont retire from youtube

[@Urgelt]

Grats, Kenny, glad you came by.

[@angelicharmony]

Wow, thank you for the very informative video, Terence. It's a frightening concept...but it's crucial that we learn about it. I like how you injected random questions without answering them right away - it keeps the reader interested!

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, illjustice, for your encouragement and appreciation.

[@Urgelt]

Mr. Harvey has been a fixture in the radio business for a long time now. He must have spoken hundreds of millions of words into a mic. It is a high compliment, indeed, thank you.

[@alanna4858]

Hi Urgelt, im really stoked to have a reply from you. I have listened to your other programmes and I think you have a real talent. Well Ron Burgendy is a character in a funny movie who reads the news although he is ridiculous but what i was meaning was you narrate quite like him, especially in this series, with much drama and suspense in your voice.

[@kennywrites]

You make some good points here, my friend! I'm off to see part two...

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, Jazzystijn1987, I'm glad you found something to enjoy in my videos.

[@Urgelt]

Most welcome, Jon, I'm pleased you got something out of it.

[@Urgelt]

Agreed, Sainter, thank you for your comment.

[@Bass007]

I can't believe its been 15 years and people to still do not take this seriously enough. Needed to fund more vaccine research since then. Maybe we will learn.

[@Urgelt]

Vaccines work pretty well for influenza viruses. The problem with flu threats is the time to develop, manufacture and deploy vaccines versus how quickly flu can propagate through a population. We've never successfully developed a vaccine for corona viruses. Ever. Evidence is slowly emerging that if you survive COVID-19, you may or may not develop antibodies; and if you do, they may not last for more than a few weeks or months. You *can* become reinfected. Not a good sign for vaccines under development. COVID-19 may be close to a worse-case scenario - a cold virus, basically, that we can't stop from circulating, that often delivers permanent damage to organs (particularly the heart), that you can catch repeatedly, and with a death rate at least 20 times higher than seasonal influenza. Possibly more than that; statistics are not particularly reliable due to the way deaths are counted and due to governments preferring to downplay the severity of this disease. While vaccines may prove to be a dead end, anti-virals and nutritional strategies may be able to mitigate against the worst outcomes, if they are applied early enough. They won't be much help once the virus has proliferated throughout a body. ICU is too late. Preliminary research, not yet conclusive, suggests that healthy levels of Vitamin D correlate with milder infections and higher survival rates. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be a chimera - that is, a virus which has been assembled from parts of other viruses through gain-of-function research. Its genome is a real grab-bag from different animal corona viruses. A laboratory in Wuhan, funded by Dr. Anthony Fauci and the US Dept. of Health and Human Services, lost control of it, I think. Can't prove that, but other explanations for how this virus acquired its genome naturally require beating amazingly long odds - and require the existence of a family of corona viruses in animals which we've never seen. We're basically up against a bioweapon.

[@Bass007]

@@Urgelt I agree. There are to many red flags to call this a work of nature. Its not unusual for the government to lie. I doubt it was a conspiracy, it just lacked proper control and regulation etc. Crossing my fingers for 2021. Have a good night going to watch your insomnia video soon. I hope you're not offended but you remind me of my grandfather.

[@Urgelt]

I think so, too, Steven. Educational content and straight-talk doesn't make up a large part of KZbin's video library, but there is some here. More than you can find on broadcast television, where it's an endangered species.

[@Urgelt]

Glad you like them, Ryan, and thank you for your comment.

[@generaldeejee]

Nice vid Urgel you're a wise man and you can very good explain things.

[@Urgelt]

Quite right. Thanks for your comment, K2.

[@losetogain]

Very gripping video Urgelt, you really have a gift for captivating and articulating your point. Thank you for sharing this, it is very important information that needs to be in the public consciousness. Is there anything we can do to prepare individually? Furthermore, what can over governments do to protect us that they are not currently doing? Thank you, Dustin

[@Urgelt]

Agreed. I'll have some suggestions about that in the final video, and some good information sources to share that I hope will arm you for a good talk with management.

[@Urgelt]

I'm glad you think so, Kenrg. I don't think panic would do us any good at all. Thank you for your comment.

[@Devin-ht8fq]

You were right.

[@Urgelt]

Only in a vague, general sense. We were vulnerable, but we couldn't guess back then if, when or how bad a pandemic might be if one hit us. This is a bad one. It's probably not as bad as the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, but I'm pretty sure the toll will be many, many millions of lives before we can get a handle on it. Bad enough.

[@SanguineYoru]

Glad to see you're still around - why have you stopped making videos?

[@Urgelt]

Making videos was fun, but it was also a time sink. I can no longer put in the effort. Hope you're doing well, crypto.

[@Urgelt]

You raise a good point. Even the "well-adapted to humans" influenza strains can be dangerous. I was describing a popular perception, not providing a scientific viewpoint, when I introduced the subject.

[@Urgelt]

Thanks, General, I'm glad you found it to be clear.

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, MaGyunia, I'm glad you think so.

[@Urgelt]

The question, "should I talk faster?" is the same as the question, "should I sound just like radio and television broadcasters, who so profoundly shape our expectations?" Rapid-fire explanations are the rule in advertising-dominated media. Great for sales, which is why they fast-talk. Not so hot for comprehension. If you want people to think, you have to give them time in which to do it.

[@JifT94]

Yes, that helped immensely. Thank you.

[@Urgelt]

Yes. Thanks for your comment, Stumpie2.

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, Abbey7. I will try my best not to disappoint.

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, Stefani, that means a lot to me.

[@Urgelt]

Welcome, Trena, and thank you for watching the video.

[@Urgelt]

Agreed, David. We'll make it through if a pandemic comes. The more awareness we have, I think, the less damage it can do to us.

[@Urgelt]

That's a good idea. I suppose that's what I've tried to do with this KZbin series, but of course I'm just an amateur, not a medical authority. And not many people will see these videos.

[@sainter1]

Why do I have a sudden urge to move to the antarctic? Thankyou for raising this Urgelt. Alarming it may be but the more information we have on a possible outbreak like this the better prepared we will all be. Sainter

[@ohbrettski]

Urgelt, we need you.

[@Urgelt]

It might be. We'll see. Glad you enjoyed the video, DisturbedEarth.

[@Urgelt]

Me too, Matty. I've removed the chain letter comments. Glad you enjoyed it, and thank you for your comment.

[@yellyman5483]

Interesting video.. Where you channeling covid 19 back in the 00`s?

[@Urgelt]

@@yellyman5483 Not really. Back then, we were alarmed at the prospect for a naturally-emerging pandemic. SARS-COV-19 does not look natural at all. It looks like a frankenstein monster cobbled together from different viruses and then enhanced through gain-of-function research. I regard it as an escapee from a lab in Wuhan. The US Government funded that gain-of-function research in Wuhan. A naturally-emerging pandemic could still happen. But I don't think COVID-19 is that. This is a pandemic humanity inflicted on ourselves.

[@yellyman5483]

@@Urgelt So you believe covid 19 was created in a lab, and not a result of people eating bats in China?

[@Urgelt]

@@yellyman5483 I strongly suspect it. The giveaway is the furin cleavage site DNA coding. There isn't anything like it in any natural corona virus, And it's this code that is the exact goal of gain-of-function research, When you see that, you know you're looking at a lab creation whose purpose was to make the virus more dangerous. It gets into cells much more easily.

[@yellyman5483]

@@Urgelt If that is true, China has committed crimes against humanity.. I wouldnt be surprised if they really manufactured the whole thing to destabilize the world, and the western economy.

[@Urgelt]

I think so, Kazl1m. Getting ready for it is not that big a deal, I think. And just knowing what to expect could be of some help if it hits.

[@Urgelt]

He's gone, Sean, no worries. I don't tolerate haters. It just takes a while to get to them all during a feature.

[@Urgelt]

I'm sure it won't be the last meeting. It's a big issue in health care right now. A pandemic, however low the probability of it, has to be taken seriously by health care professionals. If it happens, it would be a real kick in the teeth, particularly if health care workers are unprepared.

[@kazl1m]

Thank you, Urgelt for the reminder that this is not something to be taken lightly. We can slough off a war in another part of the world. We do need to be aware of the risks and prepared to protect ourselves and our loved ones.

[@alanna4858]

i really appreciate the fact that this man took time out of his life to tell us about Avian Flu. Its a great video. He has a lovely, interesting quite lulling voice. Does anyone think if he shaved his beard, got some contacts and cropped and dyed his hair he could be a dead wringer for RON BURGENDY just because of the way he speaks this video?!? just a thought!

[@Urgelt]

The experts agree with you, SDG. But I think it might not happen exactly as the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic happened. The potential for rapid dissemination is there... but we can also rapidly disseminate information. An awful lot of deaths happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic because people weren't informed and didn't know what to do. Thank you for your comment.

[@Urgelt]

I hope to be here for a good while yet, Koolkidz588. Thank you for your generous comment.

[@Urgelt]

Hope you get over that quickly, Schantifreund. Thanks for your comment.

[@asertydances]

Thank you Urgelt... Informative and yet leaves most of us feeling--in a sense-- helpless in the face of a pandemic. As an individual in a very large city, I automatically think about stocking up, the next thought is that if such a thing did occur... leaving for the country.

[@Urgelt]

It's an alternative browser, not a mod to Explorer. Google "Mozilla Firefox." You can locate the plug-in at the Mozilla site, too.

[@Urgelt]

Factory farming has its problems, but the emergence of animal viruses into humans tends to happen elsewhere, particularly markets and farms in the third world or among hunters and consumers of wild animals where hygiene and thorough cooking are not particularly traditional. Interaction of wild and domestic animals also accelerates the emergence of viruses into humans, and those interactions aren't as common in factory farms. Misuse of antibiotics doesn't have anything to do with viruses.

[@Urgelt]

Thanks, MG.

[@Urgelt]

The percentage varies by the question you ask and how you ask it, but speaking generally, that's about right. The US has a large number of people in it who do not base their beliefs on science. Every nation has some people who do not base their beliefs on science, you know. We've got more of them as a percentage than most nations, perhaps. But your point is better made when it is aimed, not at one nation, but at humanity.

[@Abbey7]

That was great Urgelt. No matter what the risk (in a variety of subjects) it's always better to be informed and prepared! I'm looking forward to your "vaccine speak" as it sounds like a very interesting topic. As always, take care!!

[@Urgelt]

The answer to your question is scenario-dependent, I think. Under some scenarios, no, we probably could not. Under others, we probably could. Civilization is elastic. But it has a breaking point, I'm convinced, at which point it will fail. Figuring out where the breaking point is... that's a hard nut to crack. It's not like we can experiment to find out. We would not survive the experiment.

[@Urgelt]

Heh, well. BBC can produce more than I can, and actually, BBC has done quite a lot of very good quality reporting. I don't think I can replace the pre-eminent world network with a KZbin channel that averages less than one short video per week. But I'm glad you enjoyed my videos, and thank you for your comment.

[@Urgelt]

That's what informing is intended to resolve. Learn about it, figure out your strategy to respond, and then put it away. If it happens, you're prepared for it; then don't lose sleep about it. Worrying by itself is not much use, eh?

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, r731509, but you know, I just post infrequently. I haven't really been away.

[@medinadan]

Thanks 4 the 411 !! I will give it a look-see.

[@Urgelt]

I'm reading the World Health Organization web site, and news articles, mostly.

[@Urgelt]

I may have given the wrong impression. I write my own narratives. They are essays which draw on multiple sources. I do not read text from other sources.

[@Urgelt]

This is one of those topics where if it doesn't happen, I'll be quite pleased. Note the percentages. I'm predicting it probably *won't* happen in the next several years, despite the pandemic among birds and the possibility of a human transmissible strain. But if it does - and it could - it would be nice to be informed and ready.

[@reedeema]

urgelt , you must be very rich ,dont know much people that are well educatet as you , god bless

[@Urgelt]

My plan is to have the whole series up by the end of the month. None of the "protective measures" I'll be advocating are earthshaking or startling or even particularly expensive. Just common sense stuff anyone can do.

[@Urgelt]

Me too! I think education on this topic offers a payback in reduced risk. If there weren't, I wouldn't have brought the subject up at all. I hate expending my energies on things about which I'm helpless. But you were right, too. It is scary. I feel a little conflicted. I want to explain a scary thing... but I don't want to be a sensationalist. It's a fine line to walk.

[@Urgelt]

Oh, Bird Flu is a real threat, all right. Wild strains of influenza have crossed into humans repeatedly and killed tens of millions. Scientists working for WHO, various governments, and universities who are tracking Bird Flu's progress are learning a lot about how it happens. But I agree, you can't trust information if it's only coming from Big Pharma or its advocates. They have a motive to distort, and regularly do.

[@Urgelt]

I honestly think there are much worse dangers facing us every day. But that doesn't mean a pandemic is impossible, and being prepared against disruptions of routine might be helpful in many other situations, too. When times become troubled, the advantage goes to those who have thought, and planned, and are prepared. Fear, though, is not helpful, as Franklin Roosevelt reminded us years ago.

[@Urgelt]

Yes... avian flu has been around a good long while. There are many other diseases lurking in animal reservoirs, too... any of them could develop a virulent animal strain that increases exposure to humans and thus risk of crossing over. It pays for humanity to pay attention to animal diseases.

[@Urgelt]

Videography is just a hobby, and like any hobby, sometimes it must be shoved aside to accommodate real life. I'd like to return to it at some point, but I have no idea when that might be. I haven't changed my view of A/H1N1. It's producing some deaths. But so does seasonal flu. For a virus against which many people have no resistance, it's relatively mild. But you shouldn't take chances. If you contract it, see a doctor immediately.

[@Urgelt]

15% isn't my estimate. It's a consensus of virologists polled by an epidemiologist at the World Health Organization. The chance of dying to a pandemic in the next few years is much higher than dying in an automobile accident, according to those experts. Cold comfort for those who actually get into an accident, though.

[@Urgelt]

Leaving aside the moral/ethical dimension for the moment, I would say the answer is yes. Man is still part of an ecosphere, a fragile little life-support bubble in a big hostile universe. We share that bubble with disease organisms and don't fully control them (yet). We're also vulnerable to perterbations from outside the bubble.

[@mcwolfus]

Good video, factory/intensive farming doesnt help. There is also the problem of antibiotics loosing potency, but thats another story...

[@Urgelt]

Good. I think we're all better off if we have our eyes open and our minds informed. Information is the most potent weapon we have against a pandemic.

[@mcwolfus]

Do you think that the society we live in; entitled, science ignorant, superstitious, can cope with a major event which would call for us to pull together?

[@Urgelt]

As I said in my videos, I don't think vaccines are going to be much of a factor in dealing with an Avian Flu outbreak, if one should occur. The absolute best way to avoid it is to dodge becoming infected in the first place. Being well informed is the key.

[@Lemonpop21]

that creeped me out. Now im scared to go outside...im gonna catch it....but very informative anyways,thanks

[@Urgelt]

Try the "Video Downloader" plug-in for Firefox, Tino.

[@creegirl9]

the first flu vaccine was not manufactured until 1945. The spanish flu epidemic was much earlier, 1918. People died from that epidemic mostly from secondary pneumococcal infection. there were alot of other factors contributing to the spread, like the war, new faster, transportation like airplanes and airships, close unsanitary conditions created by the war, etc etc.

[@Urgelt]

Fascinating question. I'm certainly no expert, but I have an opinion. Unfortunately, my opinion is complex - it really won't fit into a comment block. But I'll try. The short version is, no and yes. No, it's not as sweeping as "all black males." But yes, black males are often portrayed as frightening. When people are afraid, it usually goes badly, both for those in fear and the objects of it.

[@Andy17]

wow i only knew that birflu first recorded somepoint around 1896 in italy and the first dtrain of the h5 was recorded in scotland in the fifties!!!

[@Urgelt]

Actually, billions of dollars are being spent by governments on vaccine development and on isolation, containment, and RNA analysis. I'll talk more about that in the next video. Thanks for commenting, Sundaysundays123.

[@Urgelt]

I don't think we'll see any official quarantines with this bug. That might change if the death rate proves to be higher than I think it will. We might see some temporary school closings. I should also add one more piece of advice. Consuming foods rich in antioxidants may help moderate the immune response responsible for many flu deaths. Stock up on leafy green veggies, carrots, etc. Google "antioxidant food source" for suggestions.

[@amarug]

Will you still make a video again? I hope you are well!

[@messabout1]

I like you Urgelt, but I must comment on your subject. Chicken Little comes to mind. Remember the press coverage about the early AIDS epidemic? Killer bees? Mad cow disease? Nuclear power plant accidents? Global warming end time? My parents lived through the 20th century pandemic and yes it was bad, but not world ending. "If", is the big word here. We are better served to worry about our automobile rides to work every day. Yes, I'm an optomist.

[@Urgelt]

Yes, Fiends4, viruses are easily destroyed by heat. Just make sure that you're careful about utensils, and your hands, after you handle uncooked meat. Wash with detergent. Also, make sure you don't have open, unprotected cuts that viruses could enter when you handle uncooked meat, and don't wipe your nose until you've washed up! The odds are actually pretty low that the virus will be in the meat you're buying, but it doesn't hurt to be careful.

[@mcwolfus]

Absolutely agree on all points. I avoid meat in general, and especially if I dont know its origins.

[@tinotrivino]

i have internet explorer, how can i download firefox? its a whole other explorere? or jsut a mod for internet explorer

[@Urgelt]

I've been thinking about global warming a lot lately. I may just decide to do a video about it. I'm an occasional poster, though, so don't look for it to be rapid.

[@Urgelt]

Thank you, apaszta, but you know, in no sense am I a professional on the topics I have presented. My only qualification is interest. But that's enough to kick off a discussion, I think. I figure if I get it horribly wrong, someone is very likely to kindly point it out. :-)

[@Urgelt]

A worst-case pandemic would be rough, but it won't destroy humanity or the world, happily. Like the Spanish Flu, afterward the survivors will bury the dead and carry on. When it comes right down to it, humanity is pretty resilient. Always glad to hear from you, Naomi. *Hugs*

[@Urgelt]

I've been tracking the news reports carefully. It's a new strain of the H1N1 influenza virus, displaying genes from human, swine and avian influenza. It's definitely not a benign version of the flu. The Centers for Disease Control believe it is too late to contain it; it's loose in the general population and will make the rounds. I would assess the threat as about the same as the Hong Kong flu pandemic. This is not going to be "The Big One" to rival the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919.

[@Urgelt]

But please don't get the impression I'm defending factory farms or misuse of antibiotics! It's just that factory farms and misuse of antibiotics don't have much to do with animal viruses crossing over into humans. Unsanitary conditions in factory farms and misuse of antibiotics *are* responsible for the emergence of dangerous bacteria which can threaten humans. This is a different class of pathogenic threats, though.

[@alanna4858]

Hey Urgelt, thank you again for the reply. Your answer is vague but i understand about the sweeping generalisation lol, although I was simply using that as a brief example. There are many more folk devils in society (both UK & US). Another example is teenage mothers. I know because I was one myself. Would you do a video? Id love to hear your thoughts in-depth and I might tackle this computer to make a responce if i figure out how to. Alanna

[@Urgelt]

Heh, probably not this time. Though that is still uncertain. There are pathogenic threats out there, though, and it pays to keep informed and know what you will do if one hits.

[@Urgelt]

Much appreciated. :-)

[@Urgelt]

You don't have to wait. You can ride a bike. Or electrify a bike and ride that. Or install solar panels. Or invest in a wind farm. Or take a job in one of these industries. Or write articles about these things as a journalist. And plenty more options exist for cutting down our dependency on fossil fuels. All it requires is for us to decide to take an active, rather than passive, role.

[@creegirl9]

an unfounded generalization. oh... and reactions to the vaccines themselves are rare. its usually the carrier agent of the vaccine that produces a reaction if any.

[@Urgelt]

I'm glad you enjoyed the video, Alanna. I'm guessing Ron Burgundy is in some way admirable? I haven't watched television for so many years, I no longer know who is celebrated, or why. I have come to suspect that's a prerequisite for sanity.

[@Urgelt]

There won't be a long wait, all 3 videos in the series are shot, I just have to edit the other two. My purpose isn't to fear-monger. But you know, an awful lot of people died during the Spanish Flu pandemic because they didn't know what to do. Education serves a purpose.

[@Urgelt]

We can trust them to try. And I think they are trying very hard in this case.

[@Urgelt]

I tried some different lighting out... and I'm finally figuring out how to get the most out of my USB mic and sound editing software, I think. It's still just a talking head video, though.