OVERBET BLUFFING the river (GTO Applied)

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In this video we explore some practical river spots where an overbet helps us win more money.
Videos referenced:
Building Block 1: River Toy game: • GTO Basics Explained i...
Building Block 2: Overbets increase our EV: • GTO Applied: Why You S...
OtB_RedBaron vs Kanu7 with a big overbetjam on the river: • OtB_RedBaron's BIGGEST...
I discuss the topic of overbets way more in depth in the Upswing Lab.
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[@mynameiskarl]

Getting some good follow up questions, so be sure to check out the comment section 👇

[@blufferrathalaigh1413]

Literally the best comment section I have ever read. Your a top human Fried, thank you very much. Legend :)

[@Jarretman]

Fried's content is the best coaching content I've come across

[@bryanrodriguez8560]

jarretman

[@romariorogna7094]

imo your videos are amazing too.Big fan!

[@Jarretman]

@@romariorogna7094 Thank you :). I meant his coaching videos on Upswing but yea these KZbin ones are good too!

[@beniolinhox5679]

@@Jarretman when u make next play&explain?

[@felixmaierhofer5026]

Help Me Love your videos! Hope you are continuing soon with them :)

[@stevenmedge3479]

Fried is the GOAT. His lab modules are amazing

[@mynameiskarl]

🙏

[@therealhossroot]

Alright Fried, you win. I joined the upswing lab :) See you there.

[@jordlamb7312]

Hey fried I'm an upswing member and I just want to say you've probably been the biggest help in my becoming a winning 100nl player so I just want to say thanks for all of your help!

[@mynameiskarl]

Congrats on the progress 💪

[@MrBoyandy1997]

thank you

[@mamarezaaa]

Thank you so much for all the great videos, and taking the time to answer our questions. What a gentleman... Have learnt a lot watching, and reading your contents and become a better player. Wish I could be your student someday. Good Luck man...

[@Radovan38740]

It's unbelievable that this content is free :) very good video, it takes some time to implement overbets to your strategy but once you get it you are far ahead of your oponents. Super effective once you also implement some exploits using those overbets as ppl are not used to face this action. Great job now I'm afraid people gonna overbet me more often :-D but nah, majority of players is too lazy to study :-D

[@TobíasFahler]

Where have you been all this time? The cash community needs you. Thanks for sharing, great video as always

[@therealhossroot]

Fried, comeback! You're the only poker content I follow. I don't want to succumb to my weakness and watch some inferior shit :) take care man

[@ghjk5827]

we miss you! we want a new video, please! :)

[@therealhossroot]

Fried, it's been 3 years and 2020 was a dumpster fire. It's not even a meme anymore. Grace us plebs with another zoom 500 video. At least consider it :) take care man.

[@mynameiskarl]

Hey, appreciate the comment, but this won't be happening any time soon. As a coach for Upswing Poker I have to keep the value for the Upswing members in mind and can't put too much of the "good stuff" out for free on KZbin. But nice try. There seems to be more z500 content on youtube these days though... but I can't personally vouch for the quality ;)

[@infosrelevantes7146]

If we have no SD value and we have 40% fold equity on river betting pot size as breakeven is 50%, meaning its a -ev bluff but if we check we lose the whole money on pot, and If we bet woulndt we getting 40% of money on pot on long term?

[@dkoul3686]

He is back with the triple overbet bluff!

[@Yilikeitthisway]

You dont go deep enough? You were balls-deep at least. Great video. Hope to play you one day and compete!

[@andrewdixon7894]

Well explained, thanks for the advanced concepts

[@miracle9607]

You are back? WOW

[@adrianoalves20]

Do you randomize? Like do you really overbet that last hand with AK for eg? Because sometimes we might go like´´oh, what can he have here to call me`` kind of thought.

[@mynameiskarl]

Mandatory jam with AQ+. This question & the T9o comment show a misunderstanding in where our EV comes from. Your value range drives the EV and bluffs get added to force villain to call down. You don't ask yourself how big your bluffs want to bet. You ask yourself how big your value bets want to bet and then add bluffs to that range to make it balanced.

[@adrianoalves20]

@@mynameiskarl got it! Thank you!

[@Akxkkdjdk]

missed uuu buddyy wanna smash 500 nl just like you:)

[@therealhossroot]

Hey coach, I'm unsure when I should be trying to realize my equity or bet for protection. I just simplify usually and bet for protection more vs weak regs/fish and try to realize more vs good regs. Maybe its indifferent and simplifying is fine. I'm only through about 25% of your content on upswing and I'm learning more everyday :) take care.

[@tassv5909]

great example at minute 15. Really helped bring in your points! Thank you. A question: In the hand at 16:30. Does BB not have 12 combos of 78o and 9 of 9To? I understand he would fast play some but surely not all? What I clearly do like is that he has to fold many pair + missed flushdraws by the river. And for hand 3 at 18:56. Does villain not have 9 combos of J8o and 89o each combined with still 9 JTo and 9To? Seems a lot.

[@mynameiskarl]

T96: Preflop range assumptions can make us more aggressive or more passive here. Amount of 87o villain has will have an impact. Some villains will have none, some might have 100%. I mention 65 as our worst value jam, but I don't think 65 should cbet the flop for a big bet here. So realistically I'd say we jam T9 is bottom of our value range. Sometimes we run into a stronger hand (nuts that didn't fastplay), but that's poker. If villain slowplays some 87, are 7 blocker becomes pretty decent I guess. J92: Villain showing up with a lot of J8 is what likely makes J9 the bottom of our value jam range. We don't really care that he has JT/T9... those are just bluff catchers. 98 should fold vs turn overbet.

[@tassv5909]

@@mynameiskarl thank you so much for your thorough analysis. It now feels like I call too many non suited connectors in the big blind and may exasperate that mistake by calling too many turns against large bets. In the J92 hand. Although there are 12 (9) J8, it seems we could jam some overpairs, or maybe AJ (). as people overvalue the straight blocker?

[@asdzxc5216]

yo man, finally new video!

[@blufferrathalaigh1413]

Legends back

[@yourlastgg835]

17:20 Hi karl, I might make a mistake, but I don't think so. So i would like to hear your opinion: 1) Ovbet on the turn doesn't seem totally right for me the 5 is clearly more beneficial to your range given the preflop - flop action. The 5 you don't hit it at all so for you is very neutral, op hits it remotely 65sbd T5s bd, you opened 2.2 so they might have them. I would. I'm not sure but do you think you can ovb given the fact that op has still a huge part of his range that beats you? T9o 78o still in his range not 100% clearly.

[@mynameiskarl]

I don't want to go too in depth here, especially regarding turn overbets, as I'm a coach for Upswing poker and people pay for my content there. So can't put too much info for free on KZbin ;) "Optimal" play would have lots of fast playing for BB on the flop. That's why I think a turn overbet makes sense after a flop XC. Vs less aggro villains you could play it more carefully on the turn and skip the overbets

[@jambasket211]

What’s the relevance of the 7s blocker in the Q7ss hand? If the assumption is that the opponent has incentive to fast play their strongest hands, blocking the straight should become less and less relevant. However, I suppose that given your larger c bet and large turn bet, they should have some incentive to raise less often and set more traps. Perhaps the point you made later in the video applies here: the 7 will block some of the best bluffcatchers.

[@mynameiskarl]

You're right, the blocker probably doesn't matter that much. It's simply one of the hands with the least amount of showdown value at this point.

[@adrianoalves20]

Hey! Great video! About the overbet sizings, how and which to choose? I´ve seen a variety of sizes. 115, 125, 150, 180...how to choose the sizes?

[@mynameiskarl]

Depends on how big your nut advantage is/ how strong your value hands are and how big of a bet they can get away with.

[@rhoz8649]

In the KTcc hand at 17:40 villain obviously wants to call the river with hands that block the straight but this also leads to him blocking your bluffs on the turn. The Th seems like an awful card for villain to have on the turn. I guess villain will have some Jxhh and 9xhh but if he doesn't include any hands like JT he won't have any bluff catchers that block straights on the river. Does villain just need to mix with these combos and then choose his best bluff catcher depending on the river?

[@rynaldo900]

Top pair usually doesnt fold to turn bets. So Th isn’t great but having a J is too strong to fold

[@mynameiskarl]

Like Ryan commented, TP isn't folding the turn here. While bluff catching turns, I'm not thinking too much about blockers just yet. Ranges are still a bit too wide & mixed for this too really matter imo. And having a heart or not in your offsuit hand tends to not really matter either on the turn. Intuitively you'd think you don't want a heart, as that blocks villains FD bluffs. You don't want to block bluffs, seems obvious. But when you look at a spot look this in a solver, having the heart or not doesn't seem to matter. For some combos it could be that having a heart is preferred. Maybe having it is preferred on average? I actually don't know.

[@erichall6009]

@@mynameiskarl How does one differentiate from wanting to block the nuts to not wanting to block bluffs? Here for example we as V block 5 combos of "nuts" QT,T7s. Maybe we just wanna check down AT on the turn and take our sdv? If not we block 8-10 combos of bluffs AT,KT,T6s,T5s. I guess in this case it actually good to have the Th since you don't wanna bluff hands like Th6h Th5h KhTh? So assuming we don't bluff those and not AT at all, we only block 3 combos of bluff and 5 combos of nuts and thats why we rather want a T? and in this case Th is actually the best T to have? If board would have been T8xx7 with same suits and line and our hand is cointaining a 9 instead, would we now not wanna have a 9 as a bluff catcher since it blocks way more bluffs than value? Hope you understand my question. Kinda new to these things and are trying to make sense of it all in my head :) Thanks for an overall great video!

[@jambasket211]

Do you find that the basic definition of a polarized range (nuts vs air) causes players to significantly overbluff? Meaning, the value range becomes significantly restricted because they’ll include only the literal nuts within that portion of the range and end up overlooking many hands that may have a relative value nearly equal to that of the nuts, but won’t include those in the overbet value range because the absolute value of those hands isn’t high enough up on the poker hand rankings chart. The bluffs will be easily outnumber the nut hands, and leave the overall range bluff heavy. Thoughts?

[@mynameiskarl]

What I didn't mention in the video is that in most of these "overbet the river" spots, you'll still have a "regular" (70% pot?) bet size too. So playing a 2 sizings strategy. Some people people might actually end up underbluffing the overbet, as they rather risk less on their bluff and put them all in the regular bet size.

[@jambasket211]

@@mynameiskarl Definitely agree with that. Although, there is a possibility that they become accidentally close to balanced when these effects are added together. Not overbetting thinly enough + risk aversion to bluffing for a big bet. Interesting way to end up balanced!

[@Drcn011]

Hmmm... at 17:21 you do valuebet jam with weakest two pair , when opening from the cutoff and having less missed draws, but, at 22:52 you don't valuebet a bit stronger two pair, when opening from the button and having more missed draws?

[@Drcn011]

Plus, I forgot, there's a flopped straight possible in the first case

[@mynameiskarl]

We can expect BB to fast play earlier streets more often on T96: more "open" board & BB has no nut disadvantage / might even have nut advantage (2P+ as % of their overall range). On the river, 65 should run into stronger hands less often than Q6 does on KQ6 X X imo. That said, I don't think we end up with 65 very often on the river (as we bet the flop big and don't like that with 65) & the river jam is still pretty big... so normal bet might be better for 65 too.

[@hiilikeyourbeard]

hey fried, what is the thinnest you jam for value on the 72AKQ board? AJ?

[@mynameiskarl]

I'd say A2 is still a high frequency jam, K7/K2 more mixed between jam & 60-70% pot, and AJ just a 60-70% pot hand.

[@gooner4ever4life]

@@mynameiskarl what bluffs would we mix in for a 6070% bet?

[@siwanatthammachaikun7776]

Could you explain about split range or having 2 size [Not sure what people call it] on turn river. I've heard people talk about this a lot and Don't know what it is, how does it work and do we lose ev or easy to play against if we don't study that

[@mynameiskarl]

When people talk about splitting their range over 2 bet sizes, it means they will try to use 2 different bet sizes in a certain spot. Let's explain it with a river example from the video: J92 3 8. BTN has a chunk of hands strong enough to jam. Straights, sets and maybe the best 2P (J9). He also has some value hands that prefer a "regular" size (60-80% pot): QQ+, AJ, maybe KJ, J8, ... BTN would like to "split his range" here. He'll construct stronger range to go all in with consisting out of value hands strong enough to jam and some bluffs. But he'll still construct a second range for let's say 70% pot, consisting out of weaker value hands and bluffs. He'll mix in some of the strong hands into the smaller bet size to protect himself from getting exploited by villain (if ALL the strong hands are in the all in size, villain can punish your smaller bet size). ----- Same thing can happen on earlier streets. Some players like to pay a strategy with multiple bet sizes on the flop, multiple sizes on the turn... Having at least 2 bet sizes matters most on the river imo. In the video I explained when you want to overbet, but in those spots usually you still want a standard bet size too. So this means constructing 2 different betting ranges. I hope that clarifies things a bit

[@siwanatthammachaikun7776]

@@mynameiskarl Thanks you so much. Does this situation happen often in your game where you need to split your range. especially turn and river ?

[@mynameiskarl]

@@siwanatthammachaikun7776 Yeah, I very often end up playing a strategy with 2 river bet sizes. It's not the low hanging fruit though. Step 1 is to play solid poker with 1 bet size on every street.

[@tomwuustwezel]

Hallo Fried, Bedankt voor al je fantastische video's, ik volg je reeds vanaf de prehistorie (poker.be)! Ze zijn enorm leerrijk voor elke speler. Ik vroeg me af of je advies kan geven over GTO Wizard een nieuwe software met reeds berekende GTO ranges. Ik speel zelf 25NL/50NL en wil graag meer GTO studeren. Ik ben absoluut een leek in deze materie maar ik denk wel voordelen te zien in ranges die reeds berekend zijn. Op deze manier kan je meer spots reviewen. Misschien niet accuraat genoeg voor high stakes, maar voor inzicht te krijgen in de ranges lijkt het me wel een sterke tool. Alvast bedankt voor je antwoord!

[@mynameiskarl]

Hey Tom, bedankt voor de complimenten! Ik heb een maand geleden of zo GTO Wizard even bekeken. Ziet er uit als iets met potentieel. Op zich is er (imo) niets mis met hun aanpak. Wanneer ik een spot bestudeer met mijn eigen inputs (preflop ranges / game tree / bet sizes) in Simple Postflop / Piosolver, heb ik de flexibiliteit om alles te finetunen naar mijn wensen. Maar het kost me ook iets meer tijd en moeite. Als ik het goed begrepen heb, wil GTO Wizard zoveel mogelijk spots op voorhand berekenen om dan snel & makkelijk te kunnen tonen aan de gebruiker. Je geeft dus een beetje flexibiliteit op om sneller & met minder moeite een resultaat te zien dat misschien niet perfect is, maar (hopelijk) wel goed genoeg. Dus zoals ik al zei, op zich niets mis met hun aanpak. Maar het hangt er vanaf hoe goed hun input parameters zijn. Toen ik het even bekeken heb, leek op eerste zicht alles in orde. Maar ik zou er een tijdje mee moeten werken om een deftig oordeel te kunnen vellen. Ik kijk nog even de kat uit de boom. (De persoon achter Finding Equilibrium - kzbin.info/door/7aITSUnVsbnaESJe94d-tg - lijkt ook bezig met de lancering van nieuwe tool die gebaseerd is op "reeds berekende GTO solutions": gtox.io/)

[@tomwuustwezel]

@@mynameiskarl bedankt voor je antwoord, ik heb het eigenlijk ontdekt via een andere you tube channel "micro donk poker". Hij heeft enkele vergelijkingen gemaakt met PIO en de resultaten waren nagenoeg dezelfde. Zoals je aangeeft kan je inderdaad de ranges en de betsizings niet tweaken tot in detail. Maar je kan op korte tijd wel een groot aantal spots analyseren en dat heeft me toch al wel enorm geholpen en mijn winrate een enorme boost gegeven op zeer korte tijd! Als hobby speler met een full time job is je studietijd ook eerder beperkt en vandaar dat het voor mij wel een oplossing is om toch een groot aantal GTO solutions te bekijken in een beperkte tijdspanne. De complexiteit van PIO en andere tools is ook niet de onderschatten als je onervaren bent in de materie. Dus voor mij zeker een opstap naar meer. Toch enigszins gerustgesteld met je uitleg dat het geen totale onzin is!

[@mgm-kh9qm]

looks like you've got 2 spare monitors there, can i have one? just smashed mine when i got caught overbet bluffing on the river again!

[@pigdog126]

How do you pronounce your name? I saw you say it once but I'm not sure I'm hearing it correctly. It sounded like freed mulsh, but the last name doesn't seem to match the spelling very well.

[@mynameiskarl]

Freed Mulders (~ X-files Mulder)

[@pigdog126]

@@mynameiskarl Thanks. Also, your poker vids are fantastic!

[@youtupineyoupinette7663]

Bonsoir, à quand une petite vidéo en Français ? Tu as un sacré public ici, y compris des pros et des coachs ;)

[@francoisgavroy9503]

Fried est neerlandophone

[@youtupineyoupinette7663]

Je pensais qu’il parlait Français liée à un pseudo qu’il a sur unibet « maisOui »

[@mynameiskarl]

Thanks for the compliment Youtipine Youpinette. And nice detective work! As a (Flemish) Belgian I studied French in high school. Unfortunately I wasn't really good at it and it has been unused after I turned 18. So by now my French is pretty bad. Which means that unfortunately a video in French is not going to happen. Sorry!

[@youtupineyoupinette7663]

Play & explain on upswing 🧐 ! Thx for your good work, i think that you are helping a lot of player ;)

[@romariorogna7094]

Thank you for the video!Amazing like always!I have a question:Is it a mistake if we overbet turn and don't overbet river ?Or river we can/should split our range ?

[@mynameiskarl]

There will be spots where you want to overbet turn and follow up on the river with a "regular" bet. That happens when you'd overbet an overpair/strong TP on the turn and it's not strong enough to jam the river, but you still want to bet. This is likely a spot where you want to split your range and have 2 bet sizings. Overbet with the stronger part of the value range.

[@sampennell263]

@@mynameiskarl If we split our range like this how do we respond to river raises (since it seems like we are some what face up and capped)...or should villain just not really have any raises due to the board runout and our overall range advantage?

[@sampennell263]

Never mind I see that you have pretty much answered this below, but building off of that...are there any heuristics to determine which strong value hands make it into the smaller size and which bluffing combos are preferable for overbet vs small size (aside from simply solver output)?

[@mynameiskarl]

@@sampennell263 You can still bluff catch with a (semi-) capped range ;)

[@mynameiskarl]

How to split between small & big size: I don't feel like I have totally figured this out, but: - value: With a low set or rivered straight I'd focus on betting big myself: focus on getting called by worse (unblocking top pairs etc...) With top set I'll be less inclined to jam and maybe focus partially on getting a bluff XR out of villain - bluffs: If there's a rivered straight, you'll be looking for some bluffs that block the straight to jam with. But besides that, I don't think it's easy to make a good split. It also always seems highly mixed in a solver. A tip I've heard a couple of times is that you want to bluff bigger with better blockers, smaller with hands that want to bluff but don't really have anything good going on.

[@adrianoalves20]

BTW is the player TheWakko any good?

[@mynameiskarl]

Older school high stakes player. Should be pretty good. Haven't watched his KZbin content yet, but should be decent.

[@NClottery]

Hey my friend I love your video and I also would love for you to be my coach?

[@NClottery]

Boommm I love this video Booom

[@NClottery]

Lol man I love this guy!

[@14luey]

I thought JT would not be the best bluff catcher by villain? Even though he blocks your value, he is also blocking your bluffs. Wouldn't KJ, AJ or A9 be better bluff catchers ?

[@mynameiskarl]

AJ might be better. But I think JT & QJ > KJ or J6-J4 or something like that. It's likely all mixed strategies here, none of these 1 pair hands will be pure calls in a solver. But I like the heuristic of calling with JT

[@juurme]

Playing in NL50 where overbets are rare sight, I feel like when i start overbetting rivers 2-3x the pot my value hands will never get paid off

[@AudeJavel12]

then why not use it as a bluff?

[@mynameiskarl]

That can definitely be the case and it creates some very easy exploits as AudeJavel12 commented. To get a bit used to overbets yourself and observe the reactions of the player pool, you could start with just 150-200% pot on the river instead of a jam.

[@juurme]

​@@mynameiskarl I will definitely try to start overbetting some good boards on the river now by little and see how the players react.

[@adrianoalves20]

I dislike the T9o hand. I don´t think you need to overbet there to make him fold a missed flush draw and 2 pair and maybe a strong K like KT or KJ I think he woul even call an overbet. The runnout favour his range as well..

[@lobsterworldwide]

Deep Fried Meulders

[@callumross2799]

comment for the algorithm

[@ghgf23hh3]

yeah if you just record 5*60 mins of you playing 500-1k and share all of your secrets for free that would be great

[@ds54ds5sd5sd5]

or Sigh, and bluff with words "unfortunately, but yeah, just take my money"

[@mynameiskarl]

Bluff with confidence