Panic Buying in Luxury Homes

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Home Prices have peaked! The direction of the "Market" is down. I use national Indexes and I find the: Median: price represents the National Housing Market best. "Average" Sales can be distorted by more sales in the lower range or the upper range. My personal thoughts are Foreigners are purchasing expensive homes in the US as a "Safe Haven" and are distorting the indices.
Viewing the data from FRED, it is clear that prices peaked in 2022.
I still am forecasting property prices to decline.
This is just a signpost along the way confirming where we are in the Real Estate Cycle Completion. Fortunes are yet to be made.
If you would like to consult, contact West USA 602-942-4200 and ask for Michael Douville
Patience is now required. If you purchase now, you risk losing 30% or more that may take 5-10 years to recover.
However, if you are patient for the next 12-18 months, you might be able to have a Life Changing Opportunity.
I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication.
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[@billjames3030]

The old guy on TV wearing Pampers says to ignore the inflation.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. Pretty sad! When I was young, the elected officials were entrusted to take care of the people of the United Sates and to operate in their best interest. Now, it seems the concern of those elected officials is anyone BUT the citizens of the US. Their base case is to retain power and get re-elected. It has become increasingly difficult to trust some data and I find myself questioning the data set. Much of this should not be on the Radar! Michael Douville

[@23drcharles]

The new book, The Bubble That Broke The Bank, argues that the split real estate market is causing real estate confusion. This will be resolved by 2026 with the vaporization of billions of dollars in the real estate crash. The Luxury market is in a bubble that will explode through increased taxes, overpriced homes, and stock market collapse. This is the wrong time to park your money in the Luxury market because you are buying at the end of the real estate cycle.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the great comment. I can see that scenario unfolding! Already the FDIC has admitted to 66 Banks that are in trouble over their CRE loans, this spills over into many foreign banks that lent into the CRE Market for yield during the crazy negative interest rate policy of Europa. Same with Japanese banks looking for yield. The viability of the Asset changes and jeopardizes the Capital Stack. That is already underway. The Real Estate Cycle is for the ASSET Class not just Housing. The CRE is leading the way, Housing will follow. I have been advising waiting for the entry points. Michael Douville

[@mike9132]

It tells me the dollar is crashing. Not relative to other currencies, but domestic purchasing power.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Yes, that is certainly a possibility. Excellent out of the box thought. I have been following other research and more than a few have pointed out that Inflation can come in 3 waves...the 2nd wave is the worst. Inflation is also one of those data points that seem to have been manipulated to portray a much better narrative, using the original method from the '80's, Inflation would have been significantly higher. A mean, nasty, protracted RECESSION is a 100% cure for Inflation! Very good comment. Michael Douville

[@mike9132]

@michaeldouville690 take a look at venezuela currency over last 5 years. It's crashed. Now look at their stock market over 5 years. Straight up. It's a melt-up caused by money printing. US debt will hit 50T in 10 years.

[@michaeldouville690]

@@mike9132 Thank you for the great comment. Yes, Venezuela has terrible inflation; add Turkey to the list. When the currency collapses, only real things survive. Good businesses ie stocks, natural resources, farms, forests, and my FAVORITE, real estate. Hugo Stinnes is the 1920's went into massive debt and bought real assets and hard currency. When hyperinflation arrived, it wiped out the currency and Stinnes paid back loans for pennies...the hard assets rose in value and Stinnes became the richest man in Germany. Could that happen here? It would be a stretch, but certainly inflation would benefit those hedged......so, why not follow in their footsteps? Sacrifice and save the downpayment...a great buying opportunity is coming! Michael Douville