Part 12: Climate Change - 'Doubled CO2 Means Just 1,64 Degrees Of Warming... ' Or Maybe Not

Last week a paper by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies led to sensational headlines that the Earth will only warm by as much as 1.64 degrees centigrade -- in a couple of centuries. Sound too good to be true? Of course it does.
Peter put this video together faster than he normally would because the myth has already gone viral. But it's so easy to spot the flaws you have to wonder why people who call themselves "skeptics" aren't skeptical enough to check even the most basic facts.
CORRECTION:
Cbrhawk1 points out an error at around 3:15. He writes: "[Potholer] applies a subtractive 0.26C to the 4.5C estimate of the IPCC rather than properly applying the feedback to the formula." My response: The paper doesn't show how to apply the formula to other models, which is why I subtracted the 0.26 degC figure directly. However, I agree with Cbrhawk1 that it is not that simple, because higher temperatures would presumably lead to higher evapotranspiration rates. If we apply the figure pro-rata, then warming of 4.5 degrees would be reduced to 3.9 degrees. I have no argument with that at all; evapotranspiration is a negative feedback, and the paper shows that it is greater than previously estimated. The point of this video is to debunk the absurd conclusion that global temperatures are only set to rise by 1.64 degrees because of evapotranspiration. The focus of the study was not to determine global temps but to quantify the negative feedback effects of evapotranspiration. Since the model started with a low warming figure, it resulted in a low warming figure when evapotranspiration was plugged in. Had the model started with a higher warming figure, it would have resulted in a higher warming figure when evapotranspiration was plugged in.
SOURCES:
Original myth published in:
www.theregister....
"'Greener' Climate Prediction Shows Plants Slow Warming"
NASA press release
www.nasa.gov/to....
Original paper:
"Quantifying the negative feedback of vegetation to greenhouse warming: A modeling approach"
L. Bounoua et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 2010
Bio of Lewis Page:
www.guardian.co....
Mauna Loa CO2 growth data:
www.esrl.noaa.g....
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth
from economic activity, carbon intensity, and
efficiency of natural sinks
-- J. Canadell, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2007
"Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters"
-- A.P. Sokolov et al, MIT 2009
Myth from the Register repeated:
www.openyoureye....
...and again...
www.sott.net/ar....
...and again...
www.climatedepo....
...and again...
alethonews.word....
...and again...
NASA Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Low Sensitivity To CO2 Doubling: The UN's IPCC Global Warming Science Is Imploding
www.c3headlines....
...and again...
New NASA model: Doubled CO2 means just 1.64°C warming
www.climatechan....
...and again...
NASA Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Low Sensitivity To CO2 Doubling: The UN's IPCC Global Warming Science Is Imploding
www.c3headlines....
...and again...
Greenhouse Gasses Aren't Going To Be A Problem For Centuries Say Scientists From NASA
rightwingnews.c....
"Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply"
-- M. Jung et al, Nature, October 2010
This video series is made by the former science correspondent Peter Hadfield who has a genuine interest in reporting the facts, not the media hype. Peter runs the very popular KZbin channel potholer54 and it is for this channel he originally made this series.
The Flagship Movement is always working towards informing the general public about anything related to sustainability and as climate change in recent years have become a central part of any sustainability work, and the debate about it have become so infected with unscientific nonsense - we felt that we needed to try and clear things up a bit using the actual science. We felt that Peter's KZbin series are among, if not THE best regarding the issue of climate change.