Paul Krugman: Economics of Innovation, Automation, Safety Nets & UBI | Lex Fridman Podcast #67

[@lexfridman]

I really enjoyed this conversation with Paul. Here's the outline: 0:00 - Introduction 3:44 - Utopia from an economics perspective 4:51 - Competition 6:33 - Well-informed citizen 7:52 - Disagreements in economics 9:57 - Metrics of outcomes 13:00 - Safety nets 15:54 - Invisible hand of the market 21:43 - Regulation of tech sector 22:48 - Automation 25:51 - Metric of productivity 30:35 - Interaction of the economy and politics 33:48 - Universal basic income 36:40 - Divisiveness of political discourse 42:53 - Economic theories 52:25 - Starting a system on Mars from scratch 55:11 - International trade 59:08 - Writing in a time of radicalization and Twitter mobs

[@breacohan309]

please kindly interview Sir Roger Penrose or Edward witten, I would love to see them in your podcast and I'm sure a lot of your audience would love too !

[@lexfridman]

@@breacohan309 Definitely will.

[@Homerw00t]

Would you be open to trying to get Richard Dawkins on the podcast? That would be such a treat. And if possible go in-depth into evolution and stay away from religion (although it will go there). Thank you for the amazing content. My mind feels expansive every time I watch your channel

[@lexfridman]

@@Homerw00t Definitely. A few conversations about evolution are coming up.

[@vinster9165]

It’s Really disappointed that Krugman seems mystified by the inherent or potentially dangerous outcome of AI.

[@Kodopitharos]

10/10. I've never heard Krugman talk for that long in this manner and now I have a newfound respect for Thomas Sowell. Thank you Lex.

[@Lebronwski]

😂

[@robertzehm]

Sick burn 🔥

[@sn3aky_pants593]

😂

[@christianilkjr6771]

Thomas Sowell has like one published study and a very low h-index. I don't think I've ever had a professor with less than 10 times as many citations as Sowell. Fine, go ahead and be right wing, but people who use "Thomas Sowell" as an example of a serious academic economist seriously makes me cringe hard. 😂

[@jms974]

Sowell's deconstruction of John Rawls conception of justice is beautiful. For Krugman to claim there is no "objective way" to choose one view of justice over the other while blindly accepting the Rawlsian view puts Sowell above him. Sowell intricately breaks down the consequences of both views while Krugman appears to simply align with whichever one fits his worldview without regard for the consequences.

[@13thloona]

Krugman said back in the day that the internet wouldn't have a major economical impact... Now Amazon alone is closing down entire malls and businesses all over the world. Maybe we should take his observations on AI and everything technology related with a pinch of salt

[@michaellupu2080]

@@brianhinckley4623 1998

[@13thloona]

@@brianhinckley4623 exact quote: "...it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's"

[@gfsrow]

I think Krugman's observations tend to be more reflective of, or dependent upon, contemporaneous circumstances rather than prescient projections. He would be quite willing, I think, now, to recognize that the internet has indeed been responsible for shifting patterns in retail behavior and consumer spending, plus he also references the replacement of Longshoremen by large cranes and container ships. But he's still reluctant to posit that society as a whole is moving towards massive automation and significant permanent unemployment. He needs to see it to believe it. Yet he doesn't discount the possibility of eventual UBI (based on middle class income numbers - although he does caution that such a safety net would be pricey).

[@erikschafer5176]

Yes Krugman is a hack but -- he's right that the data doesn't bear out the idea that automation/ai is doing that much. Also his other point is good, that there's no fundamental harm in producing more with less effort, after all that's what the industrial revolution did. There's genuinely no sign that AI is going to be anywhere nearly as impactful as the steam engine.

[@etunimisukunimi5890]

Didn't someone just "hack" his computer to put cp in there? Or so he said. I just don't think this guy's track record is very good with bad predictions and all.

[@Travthewhite]

Thank you for who you are as a human being Lex. The world needs people like you, stay you.

[@lorenzodiloreto3708]

Loving these economics related podcasts, would love to see more of it!! Thank you Lex and Paul!!

[@agctony123]

Keynesianism is shitonomics.

[@maxbonn9306]

I have to say that this channel is quite a gem by providing viewpoints form a broad range of specialists. This channel is not about creating a common agreement on a given subject but about proposing enlightening content from people usually taken out of context.

[@gocatbert]

Have been watching Lex for a long time now and interesting to follow his development as an interviewer. He is now much engaging in his role and feels comfortable in challenging or pressing when appropriate. Seeing this interview from 2+ years ago, it was essentially an hour of Paul Krugman to air his views unchallenged and lacked the texture that Lex's current work contains. Lex, great to see your developing your craft and keep doing these interviews. One of the few content creators whose video's I always watch start to finish.

[@unocios0]

would it be possible for you to have Nicholas Nassim Taleb on your podcast? Your ability to bring interesting, thoughtful and relevant people to your show is beyond impressive, keep up the good work, amigo.

[@edehe2370]

I don't think that Nassim Taleb would come on this podcast after knowing that he invited Paul Krugman lol. Paul stands for everything Nassim despises.

[@migkillerphantom]

It would devolve into a frantic tirade about how Phoenicians are Greek and Aryan.

[@dds3524]

Would be such a great guest ! And indeed N. Taleb despises Paul

[@steven-el3sw]

Lol.. Well he did try to get him on...

[@TTZ316]

Talib stated he was invited many times and wasn’t interested (in a very Nassim Taleb way of saying things)

[@JimJamJuicy]

Thank you Lex I really enjoyed listening to Paul, I bought more Bitcoin and Gold as an immune booster immediately afterwards

[@JimJamJuicy]

@@atg1962 very therapeutic Thankyou

[@LinenAndSretchersCo]

You are going to loose big time! Your investment is non-productive and its growth depends on people like you to feed it with your own money. There is no such thing as "an immune booster" to ones equity.

[@davidsewell4999]

Enjoying the podcast so far. What about trying to get someone from a different economic viewpoint now as well? Like Thomas Sowell or someone like that.

[@lexfridman]

Definitely.

[@FranksWorldTV]

@@lexfridman 💯

[@t3hm4x]

How about Robert Murphy from the Contra Krugman podcast?

[@lexfridman]

@@t3hm4x I never heard of Contra Krugman or Robert, but just subscribed and will listen. Thank you for pointing it out to me.

[@michaels8297]

Krugman is a heavily biased economist. I’m glad youre considering bringing on others! You’re an impressive person, lex. My recommendation holds about having on Bill easterly. He has done great work and written great books on the interactions of history, politics, and economics. Daron acemogolu would also be an incredible guest in this regard.

[@anton2672]

Good talk! It would be great if you could get Nobel Prize-winning development economists Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee on the show. :)

[@josephbrennan370]

Economics for hard times?

[@2k10clarky]

Steve Keen

[@libelldrian173]

I came back to the KZbin version of the podcast with Paul Krugman after listening to it a couple of weeks ago, because I can't remember any of the stuff this dude said. It amazes me that you can win a Nobel prize in economics without saying anything while talking.

[@santzdesign]

Crazy. Everything he says lacks proper reasoning or justification.

[@michaelcarranza1569]

My thoughts as well.

[@kipling1957]

I’ve been following your channel since the get-go. It grows in status on every level. I’m always educated in fields I’m a non-expert in and inspired by your ability to be smart but never loose the “common touch, “ both as an interviewer and in talking about your area of expertise. Let’s just not mention your humility and relishing the poetic perspectives of humanity. Hope you never loose that. Before I wrote this I was just giving a thumbs up but thought it high time I justified that.

[@nonchalantd]

Has Andrew Yang been on the podcast?

[@amiracleone2803]

@@ACogloc he was not a politician until now. This guy did not have an open mind at all.

[@greatsea]

@@ACogloc yeah but Krugman is way more of a partisan schmuck than Yang.

[@pretendcampus5410]

I wasn't going to listen to this podcast until I heard the intro. Your approach and attitude is very admirable.

[@thepinkfloydsound5353]

I'm really impressed with the guests lately! Two Nobel prize winners in a row! Really enjoying these conversations.

[@redpillsatori3020]

Between Krugman and Obama, it really makes you question the validity of Nobel prizes nowadays.

[@NicoleHuskaConsulting]

best intro ever!

[@Jon-br8co]

A safe intro... but I respect it.

[@Stadtpark90]

1:34 That’s the positive part. The negative part beforehand is even more impressive^^

[@jfritz6233]

Best intro ever??? The reason for all of the dislikes is the arrogance of the intro. Well that and the twitter controversy of the guest.

[@samk6170]

Not a fan of Krugman, but good to see him here. Lex is doing a great job in building bridges. I would love to see more outliers within the spectrum of discourse as well.

[@MJ-cc4uf]

@@TheReferrer72 - You mean besides the fact that he suffers from OMB and TDS? And does calling someone a Nobel prize winner mean much after they gave one to The Great O?

[@erikschafer5176]

@@TheReferrer72 I mean a really easy bone to pick with him in this interview is how, in the segment about civil discourse, he endorses the idea that viewpoints he doesn't agree with amount to saying 'the earth is flat'. He generally dismisses challenging viewpoints and doesn't do much intellectual work in trying to understand them. He's also often very very wrong, and spends a lot of time trying to avoid admitting to it He's basically a political pundit that was once an economist.

[@erikschafer5176]

@@TheReferrer72 But if you read him and listen to him, it's clear he doesn't put any effort in to understand, think about, or internalize other viewpoints. In other words, I think it's clear he *doesn't* listen to other viewpoints and just dismisses them offhand because he's become a tribal pundit. The position he's in almost totally insulates him from needing to address criticism or disagreement and so, well, here we are.

[@Laurence2000]

M J Ah - mentioning “TDS” as if it’s an actual affliction, not a concoction purely of one side of the political aisle. And literally discounting the prestige of the Nobel Prize because one of the prizes in an entirely different category was given to a politician you didn’t like eleven years ago. When Lex was suggesting that certain closed-minded, hyperpartisan listeners unsubscribe, you probably should have taken the hint.

[@Laurence2000]

Erik Schafer I got to the portion of the interview you mentioned where you say Paul chalks up differing viewpoints to people claiming that the Earth is flat. It’s at 37:45, and he doesn’t actually say that. He was referencing a hyperbolic line he wrote during the 2000 election season criticizing the news media’s tendency to report on every dispute as if both sides had equal standing, to the point that an assertion that the Earth was flat would get the same treatment.

[@curiosguy9852]

Guest Recommendations: Robert Sapolsky, Eric Lander, Andrew Ng, Fei-Fei Li, Tim Berners-Lee, Tom Leighton

[@CaptJackAubreyOfTheRoyalNavy]

I'd add Nick Bostrom too.

[@avimohan6594]

Thumbs up for Professors Ng and Li.

[@edt6880]

One more vote for Robert Sapolsky...

[@KristoferPettersson]

@@CaptJackAubreyOfTheRoyalNavy Or Anders Sandberg whom I think is the better speaker.

[@sethbracken]

Curios Guy big yes on Andrew Ng and Tim B-L

[@josephchagan9015]

not sure i can deal with paul for an hour but im going to try because you do good work lex. hopefully you push back where appropriate. lets see how it goes...

[@lexfridman]

In this conversation on topics of highest disagreement (i.e., effect of automation or role safety nets & UBI), I let the opinion stand, because it IS an opinion and I will talk with many others who have a different opinion. In the future, I will make sure to explore deeper on these topics. I'm sorry if I don't do a good enough job of that here. I'm working hard to improve. I want to balance my natural inclination to be respectful of other people and my role as someone who has to facilitate exploration of difficult ideas.

[@josephchagan9015]

​@@lexfridman Certainly understandable. I think AI isn't usually an adversarial topic (even though opinions on some parts of it vary wildly) so I don't necessarily expect you to rake a guest over the coals. I mainly feel as though paul has ducked answering for some of his claims (being invited to debate Andrew Yang specifically) so I was hopeful for a chance to see him pressed on it. It can be difficult to facilitate a robust discussion without seeming confrontational.

[@betauser6233]

Lex Fridman your doing great lex! would like to see you press a little harder or reword the question when they trail off without a direct answer to your question

[@thinkbeyond3457]

Clear example of why we need younger and more tech savvy voices in our leadership, both in academic thought leadership and in our government.

[@veugeler72]

Or stop doing this thing called government. And put the superstition of authority behind us like all the other old dead superstitions.

[@garryyoder4769]

Thank you for Mr. Fridman for having Dr. Krugman on your show. His columns in the NYT are worth reading, and although I don't always agree with everything he has to say, he always gives you something to think about.

[@berntengdahl1519]

You, sir, are an open-minded person. Good for you.

[@robotron17]

Health insurance competition is (intentionally) limited to one or two providers in some states. This is done through regulation (like capital requirements) which effectively makes competition impossible. Also, see the "Contra Krugman" podcast, which refutes every Krugman column ever.

[@batman1776]

The goal of Obamacare is to make healthcare so expensive that we switch to single payer system

[@Jawshuah]

@@batman1776 It was already ridiculously expensive before

[@Edward-vs4hz]

Exactly! Why on earth would we want to apply capital requirements to insurance companies?! Or banks for that matter?! #AIGdidnothingwrong.

[@theword7268]

I think Krugman is underestimating the breadth and depth mass automation will have. Predicting the future based on the past doesn't apply when you have something unprecedented. A few isolated sectors aren't going to be impacted, entire industries will be. There is no historical precedent for the potential ramifications of #AI and #Automation replacing human labor in multiple industries all within the same basic time frame. He is correct that in the past, new jobs have been created but he refuses to acknowledge that the issue with automation, robots and ai is that the new jobs will be automated too.

[@maciejsloniewski3313]

I thought exactly the same. I think the pace of this change is not as fast as the other ongoing changes and it mostly takes place in China or other Asian countries, which makes it obscured to westerners. Will this change take us to a universal basic income, this is yet to be determined.

[@theword7268]

@@maciejsloniewski3313 UBI only gets you so far. PEople act as if UBI is the answer when it is more like a bandaid on a gaping wound. It helps but it doesnt address the underlying issue. That issue is that the entire economic system society is based on has become obsolete. Friend of mine has an ebook that addresses this here: cutt.ly/YrTPv8K

[@gentlemantramp7528]

Not to mention the extent to which the last industrial revolution, the shift from farm to factory, urbanization, rapid transit, economic depression, and mechanized world war (WWI) left people feeling as if life as they knew it had been turned upside down and inside out, and thereby open to the utopian promises of political extremism that led to the rise of Hitler & Stalin.

[@theword7268]

@@gentlemantramp7528 True, the rise of extremism is evident already throughout the world and one of my fears is that rather than our best and brightest moving us forward, we are taken backwards into some sort of dark age where rational discourse is conquered by irrational violence.

[@gentlemantramp7528]

@@theword7268 Exactly. It's the 1930's trying to happen all over again, and for many of the same reasons-though finding different outlets this time around (internet as opposed to radio & newsreel, etc). But where would the US have been in the 1930's & '40's without FDR's New Deal? And where, in light of society transforming info tech, tf is our New Deal? IMO, Bernie lost because he let them paint him as Castro instead of FDR, but he is very much a creature of the 20th Century (e.g., what happens to labor bargaining power when workers are no longer exploited but simply replaced?). Whereas Andrew Yang was the only candidate in the race with the vision to propose a New Deal for the 21st Century. "Unhappy the land that is in need of heroes." ~Bertolt Brecht

[@rearview2360]

Lex make them longer!

[@PSUProud81]

I would LOVE to hear a follow-up from him on these topics as they relate to today's new world!

[@juandavid018]

I agree.

[@zhouye7647]

well, you can get a economic degree. Many things he talked aboht is teached in the first year.

[@nandesu]

One of your best introductions to date. If we're going to break down our filter bubbles, we need to be willing to engage in meaningful dialog with those whom we disagree with.

[@JadeoftheGlade]

I disagree. If the last 20 years have shown us anything, it's that dialog should only be extended to those who have proven to be trustworthy. It's like saying we should inter boxing matches with opponents armed with pistols or swords, because to turn them away would be against the spirit of contest and good sportsmanship.

[@eminentbishop1325]

​@@JadeoftheGlade the words are the weapons here and if you don't use them against folk spreading disinformation then you lost the battle so no you're wrong

[@jamesclarke2789]

@@JadeoftheGlade And who's to decide who is trustworthy? And how can you determine if the person deciding whether other people are trustworthy is him/herself trustworthy?

[@conversatio-luisdiaz]

I'm here after listening to Saifedean Ammous

[@drewsimon9652]

Haha, same! Just reading comments- might come back later to actually listen to it all.

[@5280ryan]

Pretty soon Krugman and the world will find out that debt is not just “money we owe ourselves”.

[@syourke3]

Steven Keene is right.

[@koho]

That was said often around the time of FDR.

[@MrKaje72]

I like that he admits to not knowing what the word “prosaic” means. It takes someone humility on his part. There are ahandful of public figures/speakers that use words or respond to words having no idea what they mean. Good on him A+

[@JadeoftheGlade]

That's like praising the men for not walking into the room with a giant ketchup stain on his shirt. It's nothing to commend.

[@Grassisgreenism]

@@JadeoftheGlade Well, against the background that everyone else have ketchup stains on their shirts…

[@peterkearney31]

Once you get to a point in life when you realise you understand a lot, you begin to understand how little you know. In this context, saying you don't understand or know something is easy.

[@jayburd9572]

damn Lex went in on this intro

[@mandolorian9893]

I know right? As soon as he said that I went and liked.

[@sethbracken]

Poasting up the title page to the paper he referenced is a really good edit. Thanks for that it’s a convenient way for viewers to screen cap it for later look up or pause the video and write down the information. Thanks Lex.

[@neverusingthisagain2]

I appreciate the intro. But... how can he say that the dmv isn't that bad? Mind blowing.

[@BlueisNotaWarmColour]

This is a guy that identified the housing bubble and praised its existence. Mind blowing doesn't begin to cover it lol

[@scarbo2229]

He also really likes public schools..cringe

[@metagen77]

If you followed each of Krugmans advice for the last decades but did the exact opposite each time, you would rule the world by now.

[@gonzalonunez8226]

"The US needs a real estate bubble push economic growth (2005)" "The internet will not be greater than the fax machine(1999)" "Donald Trump will crash the economy(2017)" "Donald Trump will cause a hyperinflation in the US(2017)" "Inflation will be transitory"

[@sergiosjd]

Dude, just your intro is worth the video. Kudos.

[@weaviesbaby]

Tom Woods does a wonderful job giving a counter opinion on his podcast “Contra Krugman”. Whether you agree or disagree with Krugman, it’s always good to hear descent, understand, and strengthen your position!

[@ericd9827]

Yeah, listen to Woods the historian to learn why the Nobel Prize winning economist doesn’t understand economics. Brilliant plan. What could go wrong? Can’t wait for Krugman’s podcast on history!

[@ericd9827]

@@googs6274 Swing and a miss!

[@hoku9965]

I looked at Tom Woods background then realized he’s not an Economist. I was laughing hysterically

[@gercontreras]

Krugman should talk about what "competition" (subsidized by governments) does on poor countries that cannot compete, how some countries get ruined by others that make them dependent on their markets, how the production of useless products ruins the environment, how cyclic crisis characteristic of capitalism, ruin families, produce stress and affects the health of people.

[@brennangum6236]

describe useless? Like useless to you? How about me? Maybe I have a use for it. If something has demand it has "usefulness" at the very least to those who are demanding it

[@SpartakMs83]

@@brennangum6236 "If something has demand it has "usefulness" In a market economy yes, in a mixed economy less so, in a command economy not at all. We have a mixed economy, and many useless products and wasted resources because of it.

[@DaveKesler]

I love you brutha- you are working so hard to find meaning. I’m an architect philosopher professor at CCSF SAN Fran. Peace out

[@Krypto_Knite]

Good on You for making a stand Lex

[@El_Cristofaro]

Fantastic monologue. Perhaps your best.

[@squishler]

Do Greg Manikew next!!

[@squishler]

Erika Johnson Because Mr. Krugman is (and remains) a biased economic theorist. His predictions serve his perspective and ease the tensions of the wealthy and political elite he is beholden to for his platform. Or he was honestly just wrong and continues to be. Take your pick I guess. We need a UBI or we're in serious trouble. The riots are today may well pale in comparison to whats coming. 🙁

[@joshlewis5253]

Thank you for this channel, Lex. I appreciate your work

[@vf7vico]

fantastic preamble.

[@rasmusnordstrom9947]

Please get Austrian economist Bob Murphy next!

[@th3b0yg]

I had a negative impression of Paul Krugman. I'm now re-thinking that. I found his comments in this discussion to be reasonable and learned. I would like to hear more from him.

[@Guizambaldi]

Krugman has one of the most amazing academic career in economics. He has at least 4 hugely influential papers that either founded an area or delved deeper into one. He is on the same league of Milton Friedman as an economist, just with different morals.

[@handyman1016]

@@Guizambaldi different? No. He has immoral means to get what he deems a good outcome.

[@Guizambaldi]

@@handyman1016 You should notice that not everyone is a libertarian or conservative fanatic like you. Some people are more well read.

[@handyman1016]

@@Guizambaldi Well Read = Coming up with word salad to justify immoral deeds.

[@berntengdahl1519]

@@handyman1016 What you meant to say is that he has what YOU consider to be immoral means to get what he deems a good outcome.

[@Val-sl6ng]

Just wanted to say how lucky we, as the community, are that Lex Fridman is doing his podcast. I couldn't be more thankful for the ability to listen to the most advanced people alive, explaining their world-view and speculating on different topics. And all this is for 1min of listening to some ads at the beginning. Lex, you are doing such a great job! - incredible guests, thoughtful questions - thank you.

[@daveBit15]

There are definitively CLEAR ANSWERS for most of the important questions around economics. Unfortunately, it's a discipline plagued by obfuscation.

[@WS-gs6sf]

Thank you Paul for pointing out that economics is a science without experimentation at around 43 minutes.

[@tw_lb]

But there are plenty of natural experiments that can inform and test theory.

[@rahulrathnakumar785]

That introduction to the podcast. It was a much needed message. You're doing a service to humanity Lex. Thanks!

[@hollishedrich9126]

Except that if you're anybody who knows anything about how things actually work, listening to Krugman for an hour is about as much fun as having bamboo shoots stuck under your fingernails.

[@ZelenaZmija]

@@hollishedrich9126 Given your comment it seems like Lex's introduction was directed towards you.

[@hollishedrich9126]

@@ZelenaZmija Paul Krugman is an idiot and the only reason hes where he is at is because he is a propagandest for the establishment.

[@davidrojas4687]

It was ruthless

[@BVLAXER27]

Watching Lex interview someone that I detest affirms my conclusion that he is spectacular at his job. Amazing questioning.

[@kannanv9304]

Lex.....Intro was sensational.....Those were no numb words.......Were sharp and penetrative, right through every thing into the cerebral cortex.......I watch your podcasts more for absorption into the stacks of my sub-conscious mind, when I watch first time......Always choose to come back for a recap later........

[@Dwarfplanet]

Thank you for your great introduction and as always quality content!

[@datmesay]

@Lex congrats for having mister Krugman on your podcast ! Thank you for that 👍🏽

[@dogsdomain8458]

Krugman is correct on automation. It has actually been declining overal. And productivity growth has slowed significantly

[@antoniokasljevic]

Thank you Lex, impressive line-up lately.

[@authenticallysuperficial9874]

"The BMV is great, actually" - Paul Krugman, by which you can accurately judge all his other takes as well.

[@saman10000]

Best podcast out there! Thanks LEX!

[@basembarakat]

I loved this interview and I love to hear Dr. Krugman views on the current inflation issue we're facing.

[@relganz4663]

I think he's underestimating automation and his argument about productivity growth is easily countered. Productivity is low because there are less good jobs so people are forced to work in unproductive roles like gig workers, Uber drivers, etc.

[@lexfridman]

Agreed, but the near-term and long-term impact of AI is not as clear-cut (to me) as economists assert on either side of that argument.

[@bluesrockfan36]

Actually when you dig into the numbers the productivity growth is quite high considering the other technologies. Steam engine = 0.3% Early robotics = 0.4% IT = 0.6%. Automation = 0.8-1.4% It seems to me the productivity metric only accounts for first order effects at most.

[@agingchill9012]

Agreed that he's underestimating automation: "Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies have the potential to significantly disrupt labor markets. ...Rising automation is happening in a period of growing economic inequality, raising fears of mass technological unemployment and a renewed call for policy efforts to address the consequences of technological change." From Toward understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on labor www.researchgate.net/publication/332388436_Toward_understanding_the_impact_of_artificial_intelligence_on_labor "Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) find that adding one more robot for every thousand workers reduces wages by .25 - .5 percent and employment rates by .18 to .34 percent." From the paper, Digital Abundance and Scarce Genius: Implications for Wages, Interest Rates, and Growth by Seth G. Benzell∗ and Erik Brynjolfsson January 24, 2019 ide.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Digital%20Abundance%20and%20Scarce%20Genius%20for%20shortened%20abstract.pdf Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller says the nation’s jobs picture is not as bright as it seems: "But there are other narratives in the background that I think could come big and powerful notably the narrative about machines replacing jobs, artificial intelligence. That's going so strong you wonder why it hasn't scared consumers yet." www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/yale-economist-robert-shiller-jobs-picture-not-as-bright-as-it-seems.html ( video AI and Automation @ 2 minutes)

[@henrychoy2764]

Mebbe productivity is also driven by demand. Goto grocery store. Look at massive number of competitors in the same stupid niche. They're running out of ideas. Producing more is easy. Getting all of that sold would just get harder. Population growth may be too slow. Build the wall? Ha! They really want to demolish it.

[@LordSantiagor]

Increasing productivity also means increasing disposable income, both for the producer and the consumer. These savings go into satisfying new human needs through products and services that were not afforded before. This creates stable jobs with real, lasting savings backing the demand (not credit bubbles). In other words, those of us who don't get fired will be able to buy cheaper products and own more profitable companies. These extra resources allow new products and services to be in demand (and old ones to be in higher demand), allowing those of us who got fired to quickly get a better job than we used to have. The damage of automation to the economy is concrete and personal, dramatic and newsworthy (x hundred truck drivers fired!), while the benefits are diffuse and hard to pinpoint, but much greater in the medium term. Education needs to focus on lifelong learning and transferable skills. If you are watching this channel, you are probably very well prepared.

[@jessemair3684]

The intro was very well said Lex, thank you.

[@robotron17]

Krugman said the markets would crash and never recover when Trump was elected. "If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never". We are now at record highs - up a staggering 70% in less than one term.

[@notgetting1486]

god, i wish you knew half as much about economics as you pretend to. that's not how fast it moves.

[@robotron17]

​@@notgetting1486 Hmmm... well I trade stocks for a living. And my claim is SUPER easy to verify. Krugman made his claim near the bottom of the dip on election night, right around 17,300 in the DJIA. Multiply that by 1.7 (the formula for calculating a 70% gain) and we get .... 29,410. DJIA hit an all time high a few days ago at 29,414. Okay, moron?

[@berntengdahl1519]

@@robotron17 Perhaps Krugman was not refering to the DJIA?

[@missinglinq]

Krugman is a champion of the establishment. That's it.

[@hsingkao2024]

Please invite Andrew Yang.

[@ashersilbermann5552]

While I still disagree with a lot of his policies, I really appreciate you talking to great minds from all parts of the spectrum. If you disagree with someone, the most important thing you can do is hear them out. Maybe you are wrong and they can change your mind. Or maybe hearing them out will give you a “steel man” to argue against as opposed to a straw man.

[@zanthornton]

Thank you for CAPTIONing

[@jbsweeney1077]

No one who disagrees with Krugman accepts his definition of “justice”

[@hollishedrich9126]

His definition of Justice is complete bullshit.

[@hollishedrich9126]

As is pretty much everything that comes out of his mouth.

[@hollishedrich9126]

Except for the one about an alien invasion being good for the economy. He could beyond something there...

[@lordtyrus1]

Ah to be an economist. The only job where you can be consistently wrong for your entire career and still get a Nobel prize.

[@Drvirhot]

Why not bring Andrew Yang on? Krugman wrote a piece disagreeing with Andrew and didn’t even accept the invite to discuss UBI in person. Don’t you see the perverse incentives the welfare state bring about?

[@lexfridman]

I've been trying to get Andrew on. We agreed to do it. Scheduling has been tough. I'll talk to economists who support UBI (there are many) as well. I'll explore deeper and push back more in future conversations.

[@Drvirhot]

Lex Fridman awesome thank you Lex!

[@alexlwlondon]

@@lexfridman Krugman admitted that he would support UBI if robots really were taking away jobs. While Andrew argues that much of the drastic job loss is yet to come. So, what, do we have to wait 5-10 years when we are in a crisis for Krugman to call UBI a good idea? He doesn't make that much sense.

[@Rick-jj3en]

There is no need to debate the viability of UBI... Dalio put out an excellent analysis on the cost of UBI and the implications, or lack thereof, of "throwing money at the problem." Giving financially illiterate people money doesn't change anything, financial competence is what should be universal.

[@SAM-ft9jd]

@@Rick-jj3en Poverty is NOT the absence of character, it's the absence of cash. Stockton's program proves this. www.businessinsider.com/stockton-basic-income-test-success-mayor-tubbs-2019-12

[@0x44Monad]

I’ve shared the first 3 minutes of this video because of how important your messaging is at the beginning. Thank you. It is vital that we approach disagreement as an opportunity to come closer through understanding and an open mind, not withdrawing and drifting farther apart. Thank you.

[@Michael-vf2mw]

It's interesting that Krugman himself in this very podcast flat out contradicts that messaging though around 39:48 in the Divisiveness of Political Discource section

[@0x44Monad]

@@Michael-vf2mw what an opportunity !

[@Michael-vf2mw]

@@0x44Monad what's an opportunity?

[@Captain1nsaneo]

Thanks for doing this interview, helped me get a better picture of who Krugman is beyond his name used as a rubber stamp. If you're looking for more guests, Russ Roberts of EconTalk and Peter Robinson of Uncommon Knowledge would be good sources if not interviews in and of themselves. Personally, as someone with economics training, I've noticed that a lot of models assume a peaceful world filled with rational actors. As I've gotten older I've had more problems with this; rational self-interest is individually defined and the world has historically been the opposite of peaceful. The most profesitorial of my professors said that macro economics hadn't really progressed in understanding since the classics and I'm still inclined to believe him.

[@amiracleone2803]

please vote Andrew Yang in the Democratic Primary. The Freedom Dividend of $1000 a month is the first step in a long journey towards peace and prosperity for all the people everywhere in the world. Andrew Yang2020

[@Captain1nsaneo]

@@amiracleone2803 Wooden shoes going up, silken slippers going down. In short; No.

[@shawnradke]

@@amiracleone2803 lol everyone getting $1000 would mean everything goes up to match that influx of cash lol how dumb can you be?

[@Frank22164]

Lex, your approach is excellent in that you let the interviewee express themself without any undue pressure and you ask probing questions. Krugman I feel doesn't do enough rigorous analysis on some of his assertions, such as those on wealth inequality and safety nets. The common notion of wealth inequality is that it is detrimental to a healthy economy especially if the imbalances are large. This perspective as applied to a largely free economy. Where I find Krugman falling short is his one-sided characterization of immense wealth as a negative. Amazon is a perfect example. The company and it's founder are extremely wealthy because they returned a value measurable in dollars that far exceeds the companies profits or wealth of Jeff Bezos. The same applies to Walmart. To wit. The Walmart family is worth somewhere around a hundred billion dollars. The savings they pass on to consumers? Trillions. Yet that calculation is never made, the focus is mostly on the "negatives". Amazon not only saves consumers money but also vast amounts of time and their incredibly innovative delivery system puts every other company to shame, the USPS, UPS and Fedex to mention a few. One negative ascribed to Amazon, the pace of work at the warehouses, and the salaries of those who work in them. Not mentioned, many of these workers have very limited skills, addiction issues and are often irregular in their work habits. Naturally, they are the most prone to complain about their own lack of success as being the fault of some "other". Yet countless people with little education do very well if they stay positive, focus on improvements and defer gratification. How many high school students who goofed around in school suddenly grew up in their mid-twenties to early thirties, got a college education, and elevated themselves? Happens all the time, from earning $12 an hour to $50-$250 an hour.

[@santzdesign]

I was scrolling through the comments to see if there was anyone commenting something about the interview's content, finally found your comment. And I have to agree. I think this interview lacks depth. 1 hour for such controversial topics? Some of Krugman's justifications are either left unjustified or pitched as a truth, yet I think most of his assertions are very debatable or quite false (like the fact the 2008 crisis and the Government's intervention didn't bring inflation... or that safety net programs for health and/or education are better than the market taking care of those). I dunno. I try not to be biased, but I always find it so hard to agree with these sort of people. I think they usually end up defending the interests of politicians...

[@fabioq6916]

Great intro from Lex. His standing has risen in my mind.

[@tristanzaleski4583]

Listening to this talk after the rise of chatgpt adds an interesting twist the conversation on jobs getting replaced...

[@ivansandoval946]

Speaking of safety nets, some of them such as the Argentinian' one is carelessly and extremely located at the other side. Here we got some of the highest taxes and the widest variaty of them. Moreover bolivian people or every foreigner can get hospitalized for free in our hospitals. Nevertheless, nothing is for free, we should pay less taxes, improve our system, and add fees for foreigners... Another case of stupid extremes

[@dantecufino8445]

What competitiveness in healthcare? Why can I buy any medicine over the counter in Mexico but not in the states.... it is not a sign of competition to force an overpaid doctor to scribble a prescription. It is a sign of government inefficiency.

[@thealchemist6355]

This is point libertarians make that the US restricts importation of drugs for reasons best known to the FDA.

[@vinster9165]

Dante Cufino gotta spread the wealth right?

[@erikschafer5176]

and all but a few configurations of health 'insurance' are legal to sell in the US, but apparently that system not working is an indictment of markets in healthcare?

[@Nick-kq8pg]

@@deadeaded You still gonna be touting that when you're dying on chemo? The pharmaceutical industry just uses the "public sector" aka government force to monopolize health. And let me tell you a secret. They don't want you to be healthy. If we had real health care competition it would be infinitely cheaper and simpler. Probably a doctor just telling you to stop eating corn syrup, instead of prescribing those chemicals with side effects to keep you as a perpetual customer.

[@Nick-kq8pg]

@@deadeaded You're just hilarious. Have you ever been outside of the US? I've traveled to over 15 countries, and literally everywhere biggest problem for people is always government. I live in Germany. Ya health care is free, but you have to wait 2 months to get an appointment. Oh ya, and if you're a productive member of society (you make more than 50K USD per year), give us 40% of your income! Then pay 10% for healthcare! Then pay 7% on retirement! Then pay 40% sales tax! Then pay 60% on gasoline! Wake up man. Also, you just completely ignored my point on the pharmaceutical industry ruthlessly using government to monopolize health "care", which is meant to keep you perpetually sick. And this is happening all throughout the West, as far as I can tell.

[@moribundmurdoch]

Are you also going to get the ContraKrugman guys on the show? Maybe have them debate?

[@hollishedrich9126]

Krugman is not going to debate with anybody of substance because he knows he'll get his clock cleaned.

[@workingtheories]

Every few minutes Krugman almost starts talking like Jiminy Glick.

[@testusernameyoutube1]

Is Lex an assistant professor at MIT ?

[@angrd020]

It really behooves people to be open minded, attentive and engaged. There are so many things to be learned from your fellow humans and the world around us at large. Thanks for this insightful video Lex!🎥👍📽️

[@arimichael2499]

WOULDVE LIKED TO SEE HIM EXPLAIN HIS MODERN MONETARY THEORY IN DETAIL AND HOW ITS SUPERIOR TO AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS (WHICH IT ISNT) BUT STILL...

[@berntengdahl1519]

Sorry, you have to actually read a book for that.

[@davidchimes3464]

Fantastic interview, though I wish Lex had pressed him as to *why* he believes that certain industries such as many segments of healthcare work better state owned while others, he uses farming and steel production as an example, work better privately owned. There are reasons offered for that out there (ie, the natural monopoly conception, information disparity, etc) that he touches on, but not enough that seems to work it's way into public discourse and I'd like to have seen Krugman walk through this more than talk about many things outside of pure economics.

[@AntonShmerkin]

Could we get someone from 'alternative' economics, please? Michael Hudson? Richard Wolfe? Yanis Varoufakis?

[@williamerdman4888]

Richard Wolfe - really?.... NO

[@marsrocks247]

Stay positive Lex. You're a hero.

[@sheilanelson5973]

Came here after listening to interview with Saifedeen Ammous. Krugman is playing a character; it's true.

[@aligurbanli2821]

Krugman is Luka Modric of Economics Nobel Prize winners

[@vinster9165]

Loved your closing monologue

[@johnbertram1537]

You are very gracious in your introduction, and I agree we have to remain open to all ideas. I came here to steel man the status quo economic thought and Keynesiansim. However I am still left feeling a strong vein of partisanism runs though all of Krugman's ideas and in that there is a good deal of projection going on with regards to his identified political opposition. He also makes mention of consensus and evidence most often without producing any which is right out of the establishment playbook.

[@JoshuaAGomes]

I would particularly love to see you discuss automation Daron Acemoglu.

[@alexandredinkelmann595]

I stopped following Krugman when he intensely defended the economic policies of Argentina and Venezuela, which destroyed both countries

[@carloscervantes836]

My man get Yanis Varoufakis on

[@Usernamebtc]

Krugman is a great actor. Nothing more.

[@wakingdreamsroleplay]

Time to interview him again and ask about UBI in light of current AI trends.

[@haythamkenway8675]

I like Krugman a lot.

[@raymondoftoulouse3355]

Feel like shit, just want 90s Krugman back

[@sdsa007]

i wish Krugman would comment on climate change; specifically, how Keynesian economics is the best for solving scientific / technology and policy problems related to global climate change.

[@hughseaton1267]

Krugman is great, I love that you had him on.

[@berntengdahl1519]

@@Name-jw4sj Having a narrative is fine as long as it's based on facts.

[@augustocordeiro5166]

You should bring Peter Schiff to see from a different perspective.

[@huydo8605]

Thanks Lex, You are one of the men who inspire me so much, and of course many others, back to science and learn from abc..., not only the curious for myself but the most important is my realization, I know nothing about this and that which i seemed to already got them in past (my ignorance, sorry). By the way, keep moving... Happy new lunar year to you and all of your guests Lex. Learn from you so much.

[@jessicaadami3499]

I absolutely adore Paul Krugman ( and of course Lex). His Economies of scale theory of international trade is a small part of my economics module this semester I mostly agree with what he's said in this podcast but from a South African's (not rich like the situations he has been describing) point of view, basic education seems to be the last thing any citizen would want to receive from the government if you can afford otherwise. Profit incentives definitley cultivate a more efficient learning environment (of course with diminishing returns at the higher price range) I say this as a 20 year old who has a basic education built up of half gov and half private regardless though, the education system as we know it is far from optimal and is in dire need of rapid reform (maybe brought about by the 4th industrial revolution and ever growing globilization? ) I feel hopeful at the thought of a more widely accessible, customisable and encouraging education process that can aid in giving all South Africans the dignity that comes with literacy in particular and a confident mind in general but first our society would need to step away from this culture of oppression that has so deeply rooted itself within our trans-generational mindset. the well-informed citizen seems to be a world away and with it lies the respect that my fellow human beings deserve That's why its essential for me to take full advantage of the privilage I hold so that I might help pull a few people up with me

[@theloniousMac]

Of all the people,you have interviewed, Krugman is the only one I can find nothing good to say about.