New Antarctica Science: Under Ice Volcanoes; Octopus DNA; Bathymetry all show high Ice Vulnerability

[@PaulHBeckwith]

New Antarctica Science: Under Ice Volcanoes; Octopus DNA; Bathymetry all show high Ice Vulnerability Please donate at PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. Antarctica Ice Sheets are less stable than we thought. 3 new papers 1) Over 100 volcanos under WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet) means as Ice melts volcanos can erupt 2) Octopus DNA shows that WAIS was gone last interglacial 3) New Bathymetry New peer-reviewed science: Magma Chamber Response to Ice Unloading: Applications to Volcanism in the West Antarctic Rift System Abstract Volcanic activity has been shown to affect Earth's climate in a myriad of ways. One such example is that eruptions proximate to surface ice will promote ice melting. In turn, the crustal unloading associated with melting an ice sheet affects the internal dynamics of the underlying magma plumbing system. Geochronologic data from the Andes over the last two glacial cycles suggest that glaciation and volcanism may interact via a positive feedback loop. At present, accurate sea-level predictions hinge on our ability to forecast the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and thus require consideration of two-way subglacial volcano-deglaciation processes. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly vulnerable to collapse, yet its position atop an active volcanic rift is seldom considered. Ice unloading deepens the zone of melting and alters the crustal stress field, impacting conditions for dike initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, the consequences for internal magma chamber dynamics and long-term eruption behavior remain elusive. Given that unloading-triggered volcanism in West Antarctica may contribute to the uncertainty of ice loss projections, we adapt a previously published thermomechanical magma chamber model and simulate a shrinking ice load through a prescribed lithostatic pressure decrease. We investigate the impacts of varying unloading scenarios on magma volatile partitioning and eruptive trajectory. Considering the removal of km-thick ice sheets, we demonstrate that the rate of unloading influences the cumulative mass erupted and consequently the heat released into the ice. These findings provide fundamental insights into the complex volcano-ice interactions in West Antarctica and other subglacial volcanic settings. Link: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GC011743 New peer-reviewed science: Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial Abstract The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios. Link: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade0664?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D20137445169713379830398073557155892594%7CMCORGID%3D242B6472541199F70A4C98A6%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1703241323 New peer-reviewed science: Bathymetry of the Antarctic continental shelf and ice shelf cavities from circumpolar gravity anomalies and other data. Abstract Bathymetry critically influences the intrusion of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf and under ice shelf cavities in Antarctica, thereby forcing ice melting, grounding line retreat, and sea level rise. We present a novel and comprehensive bathymetry of Antarctica that includes all ice shelf cavities and previously unmeasured continental shelf areas. The new bathymetry is based on a 3D inversion of a circumpolar compilation of gravity anomalies constrained by measurements from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean, BedMachine Antarctica, and discrete seafloor measurements from seismic and ocean robotic probes. Previously unknown troughs with thicker ice shelf cavities are revealed in many parts of Antarctica, especially East Antarctica. The greater depths of troughs on the continental shelf and ice shelf cavities imply that many glaciers are more vulnerable to ocean subsurface warming than previously thought, which may increase the projections of sea level rise from Antarctica. Link: www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-81599-1 Please donate at PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

[@robertforsythe3280]

I do think that the land under out feet as well the volcanos found within the Antarctic have been active for at least 10tens of thousand of years. What we see today happened before aprox 13,000 years ago. My hypothesis is that the oldest records of the past will repeat itself. The Great flood before is very likely to come again. Will the collapse of the ice sheets come with a complete surprise to all. This is why I keep my eye on Thwaites at least one time per week. Thank you Professor Beckwith. This vid is just what I have been wondering for years.

[@johnnyc2764]

Hi Paul, im a geologist with a strong interest in climate (and sustainable permacultre). This is my favourite of your climate news+literature analyses. Thanks for doing what you do!

[@PaulHBeckwith]

Thanks! It’s my pleasure to do it.

[@wendydelisse9778]

Here, some scientific terms are important to those viewers who wish to self-educate. Ice can be described as "temperate" if within 1/4 degree Celsius of its melting point. Mechanical compressional "stress" is a complicated topic, but for ice sheet purposes, can be thought of being roughly proportional to the altitude of a portion of ice sheet. Compressional stress can translate to other forms of mechanical stress. In the past, there was a belief that an ice sheet was subject to roughly cubic-viscous flow. In other words, if the summit of Greenland's ice sheet was half of what it is now, then the ice flow out to sea would be 1/8 of its current value, and thus essentially vanish, meaning that Greenland's ice sheet could survive for many thousands of years. However, temperate ice has much higher flow than non-temperate ice, and in addition has linear-viscous flow, meaning that a halving the summit height will reduce temperate ice flow to 1/2, rather than to 1/8. Also, under modern conditions, reducing the summit altitude to half of its current altitude will result in warmer ice due to higher temperature at lower altitude, and therefore a greater proportion of temperate ice. In short, once an ice sheet starts moving out to sea at a greatly quickened pace, it will continue with a faster than before pace of viscous flow - or even liquid flow - out to sea. With regard to experimental evidence of viscous flow of temperate ice being roughly proportional to mechanical stress rather than to the cube of mechanical stress, recommended reading is: "Linear-viscous flow of temperate ice", published 9 Jan 2025 in the scientific journal "Science".

[@PaulHBeckwith]

Thanks Wendy!!

[@christinearmington]

Wendy, I always appreciate your thoughtful comments.

[@wendydelisse9778]

@PaulHBeckwith , you are welcome. Ice sheet loss projection models need to change, or else they will keep on underestimating ice sheet loss. Observational evidence says so, and now that laboratory evidence has caught up with observational evidence, the laboratory evidence says so too.

[@mark-remanHamilton]

Vocalism and earthquakes vary directly with glacier loss.

[@joehopfield]

30 years ago Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy included sudden catastrophic sea level rise triggered by Antarctic volcanoes. "Circular sea currents" is a poetic tongue twister.

[@AssadNizam]

Came here to say this, you beat me to it!

[@graemeguy341]

Thx Paul. This is getting too nuanced and analytical for me. To all intents and purposes when climate chaos has got to this point most of humanity may have already perished and those still around will have other more pressing issues to deal with. This is academic only and not worth losing sleep over compared to the nightmares that will come in advance

[@brawndo8726]

trying to imagine a volcanic eruption in the middle of an ice sheet. I would imagine the influx of melt water would rapidly cap it.

[@DuncanAtkinson]

I'm very much not a volcanologist or a geologist.. but wouldn't melting the ice reduce pressure on the magma reducing the likelihood of eruption?

[@DuncanAtkinson]

I just watched a very simple explanation video I now understand 😅

[@AssadNizam]

Kim Stanley Robinson was right yet again .

[@trinity6993]

I can just picture 1 little squishy octopus floating down one of those bright blue glacier rivers. So, why did the octopus cross the glacier? To find a date, apparently.❤

[@lawrencetaylor4101]

These studies show that Ocean Heat Content is much more important than the Aerosol theory of Hansen and Simon. Too bad Paul hasn't highlighted the work of Jim Massa.

[@Miki-fl9ez]

We've been living in the period of lowest CO² concentration ever And now with the growth of emissions from Siberia, we could reach the ~700-800 ppm required to start melting inner Anctartica and leading us to a greenhouse/hothouse In this case, is needless to say Greenland and West Anctartica would already be gone, in fact, they're a rarity in geological history and soon we will be in the average climate before the Pleistocene when they didn't exist

[@antonyjh1234]

They say there is four times the carbon in the permafrost, than humans have emitted in all of history. Saying could and setting such a low concentration is probably classed as optimism, a more pessimistic view would be 1200 and a case of when, not if.

[@Miki-fl9ez]

@antonyjh1234. oh, it will happen, it's not an if On regards to being conservative is because it's unlikely that all will end up in the atmosphere

[@christinearmington]

Average “earth climate “ is not where humans and human habitats evolved.

[@antonyjh1234]

@ Just the last week or two I have had issues with "average climate", considering ice ages and humans lived through those and currently the northern hemisphere land is 2.27 degrees c warmer than pre industrial and land heat is staying in the north, average climate is not the best metric because the physical heat isn't being spread out as an average, it's concentrated where the most emissions are affecting the artic permafrost, an average is deception.

[@Livingthewild]

Interesting, Paul. Thanks. Other than that, things are looking pretty good.

[@maricarmensandovalcapa6057]

You are doing a great job

[@antonyjh1234]

Wonder how the heat will change weather patterns, a volcano wiping out an ice sheet is going to be something to see, the water vapour will really kick off..

[@casperjohansson7499]

Paul! Did you see the new crack scare from thwaites?! Not sure if its ai crap or legit but it might be rumbling sooner than later 😮

[@GregoryJWalters]

Fascinating Studies indeed. Tnx for sharing your exposition and interpretation. Please keep us informed about Seismic activities around the planet vis-a-vis Earth Energy Imbalance.

[@larry785]

I think we humans need to prepare ourselves for a hostile environment. Building codes that reflect more extreme abuse from weather, putting highways underground, eliminating vehicle traffic in cities, and elimination of boat traffic over seas.

[@antonyjh1234]

Will you insulate, stop driving and stop buying products from overseas?

[@Aanthanur]

@@antonyjh1234 insulation is great, home is warmer in winter and cooler in summer, and this means you save a lot of money.

[@Aanthanur]

we only needa properly high CO2 tax and overseas transport companies will use alternatives and there would be a market for alternatives that do not dump CO2 into the atmospehre.

[@antonyjh1234]

@@Aanthanur That is why I suggested it but for the money to be saved it must be saved and not spent elsewhere, otherwise it is a waste of time.

[@Aanthanur]

@ even if you waste the saved money on blackjack and hookers, you still saved money on heating / cooling cost-.

[@Mole4art1]

The creatures surrounding Antarctic environment (octopi )'are critical barometers... thank you for focusing on this aspect.

[@ncammann]

Singular = Octopus, Plural = Octopodes

[@punditgi]

What would happen if Trump invaded Antarctica? Keep us posted about all developments down there. Oh, and we are doomed. 😢

[@Livingthewild]

Antarctica would be great again. You know, MAGA.

[@punditgi]

@Livingthewild 😁

[@rosshoyt2030]

We're not all doomed but there are massive issues. Or at least define doomed, lol.

[@Livingthewild]

@rosshoyt2030 Who's not doomed? I thought we all required habitat. Hmmmm.

[@Aanthanur]

@@Livingthewild soomed to me means going extinct, AGW will not make us go extinct unless science has totally underestimated the impacts of GHGs

[@Rene-uz3eb]

I think there's known lakes underneath Antarctica so there could be passages which shoots a hole into the octopus theory. Also, plain objectively, why would the ice melt interglatially makes no sense, we're already at the tail end of the interglacial, and we have ice cores spanning interglacials.

[@sim85oo]

2:55 octopussy

[@TTTzzzz]

Wouldn't Antarctic volcanos erupting cause a major cooling effect on earth?

[@Chris-fn9fh]

2nd