Ditch Stocks for Bonds: What's Behind Goldman's Forecast?

[@BaileyMxX]

Just a reminder that GS are the same that said the s+p500 would barely return 6% with dividends included this year. We are currently up nearly 30% YTD so they were miles out as they are most years.

[@chrisj8764]

Just because they were wrong this past year means nothing - they are talking about the next decade.

[@MaestroAbar]

@@chrisj8764 They were wrong just about every single year forecast hmmmmmmm......

[@BaileyMxX]

@chrisj8764 now look at how off they were for the past decades outlook 😉 they were miles off on that too.

[@MaestroAbar]

@@BaileyMxX Yep, these investment banks would never release their actual sentiment or the forecast on the market's future, they'll release what they want the rest of us to believe.

[@ryantan8666]

I'm not saying that they are/will be right but there are many reasons why your argument is flawed. 1. Because of mean reversion in equity markets, there is less variation in ten-year returns than one-year returns so it's not right to evaluate their predictive power based on their one-year predictions. One-year returns predictions is a different ball-game altogether. 2. All predictions come with a margin of error. To mount a valid case against their prediction, you would need to employ the statistical method of hypothesis testing to demonstrate that, given a level of significance, their prediction is inaccurate. 3. Even if we manage to prove beyond reasonable doubt that their previous predictions were systematically inaccurate, there is a good chance that they have updated their model for this new data and hence we don't have much data on the updated model.

[@Skaahn]

What was Goldman, Vanguard and others forecast in 2000, 2005, 2010? A comparison against actual returns would be helpful.

[@theowenssailingdiary5239]

Good idea

[@GonzoTehGreat]

Also, 2015 but maybe not 2020 because of Covid-19.

[@BaileyMxX]

Said we'd be up 6% this year with dividends included. Yet here we are nearly 30%.... Can't imagine their long-term forecasts fare much better tbh

[@mattinterweb]

GS predictions are a joke.

[@AlexisMoore-nx6wf]

Global index ‘til I die. I have no clever analysis but I think there’s something in not over thinking it and not playing around with your portfolio.

[@pingbounce2851]

What percentage of your portfolio is the global index?

[@barito7]

@@AlexisMoore-nx6wf The same can be said about Bitcoin

[@AlexisMoore-nx6wf]

It used be made up of loads of different funds but I’ve since consolidated it to VHVG and VFEG.

[@BahaAl-Shaikh]

Why don't use a cheaper and a better performing global etf like LGGG?

[@AlexisMoore-nx6wf]

No real reason whatsoever. The only thing I would say is VHVG is almost 16 times the size of LGGG, if that’s a factor worth considering. VHVG does have nearly twice the number of holdings. You do save £300 on a £100k portfolio with LGGG, a problem I would like to have one day!

[@infinityfabric]

Your perspective is very reasonable, and it's not the first or second time you've mentioned the 10-year low returns. The issue here is the current period of irrational exuberance. One wants to do the prudent thing, but the markets are erratic and unpredictable. I know I should drip feed, but I can't cope with how wrong I was when I decided to wait. Even at the 3600 pullback, I chose to wait because it didn't seem wise to invest then due to P/E ratios being higher than average. I'm so against investing now that I think it might be a sign to everyone that perhaps right now is actually a good moment to do so. Haha! Thanks for the video Ramin :)

[@kw8757]

I remember Vanguard making similar predictions in the past which turned out to be totally wrong.

[@marcsolloway3941]

Vanguard, who decided not to offer their clients the Bitcoin ETF, great decision that! 😂

[@andre.shaw91]

Not sure I trust bonds with governments carrying record levels of debt. Just need to be more selective in stocks.

[@rajTrondhjem10]

I have one fund portfolio myself.. made up of the Vanguard US Total Markets Index fund. I still have more than 3 decades left in my investment horizon, so not going to change anything based on this projection.

[@benjmorg]

The answer is always diversify. Otherwise the bubbles suck you in.

[@curtisbainbridge727]

Didnt Goldman say 2024 would be a poor year for US stocks? Never listen to them.

[@hachimaru295]

Morgan Stanley are no better than pin a tail on a donkey either

[@Raul19818]

Well, maybe they cant predict the future, who knows...

[@maguirefire3190]

Julien Bridgen shown a chart recently bonds total returns vs gold... gold outperformed yoy past decade. a decline in dollar and rotation to ex us assets would make sense... anything but bonds!

[@eile4219]

It's prediction. Nobody knows the future. They are betting on the odd of stock won't keep going up. Warren buffett and many big funds are selling stocks like crazy and sitting on tons of cash.

[@craig6351]

The year isn’t over

[@stevemarra4459]

Just got into investing 3 months ago I went with the ftse developed world accumulating, hopefully it works out

[@well-blazeredman6187]

Going 'Acc' is a smart move when starting investing.

[@Sandbar1914]

And relax if it corrects. Think of it as a ‘sale’ in the long term.

[@ciaranirvine]

If you have a long way (15+ years) to retirement then that should work out great. Just automate it to dollar-cost-average in every pay cheque for the next few decades and try to forget about it until you are like 60 - over the long run that fund should work out just fine. There will be corrections, crashes, and media hysteria along the way but on long timescales a developed world accumulation fund will suit your needs - just set it up and let it run for a few decades

[@RobCLynch]

Maybe GS want the fear factor to set in, so there's a sell-off of US stocks - meaning cheaper stocks for them to buy back. Perhaps they do the opposite of what retail investers do? Perhaps that's what we should do.

[@daisysmithfe208]

Very nice analysis. I've just cracked a million in my dividend portfolio this last week, with the help of a finance manager who trades my funds for me.

[@ClaudiaKuzounetsova]

That is nice. who's this person & how can I reach out?

[@daisysmithfe208]

Thank you. Her name is Emmennet Jaccque Barrett. You can research her.

[@PhelipCaouette]

That's fantastic, I work with Emmennet Jaccque Barrett too. Met her at a finance seminar in Connecticut. She's amazing

[@bpb5541]

I hope he is old and has traded a bear market or you might just lose more than half of that. Be careful. Hell if I had that kind of capital I would put it into CDs and T bills and just chill. The stock market is not worth the risk here at these crazy lofty levels.

[@eweng903]

Could be worse. UK's FTSE Small Cap index was getting on for 10% higher than it is today about 3 years ago.

[@quirkism]

Thanks Ramin. A really informative video as usual. Just wondering if something like VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF is a solution to dilute the US equity exposure, especially the MAG7. However, it's not available on HL. I suspect I'll remain fully invested globally but would be interesting to hear about alternative ETF's to dilute US/MAG7.

[@yongshen5664]

You did not mention the range! There are many details in the report.

[@fabxr]

Buffet seems to think like Goldman Sachs - considering he is reducing BRK's position in US Equities in favor for T-Bills.

[@donnyrosart8714]

But it's a pretty concentrated reduction, might say more about how he feels about Apple than anything else. The US election gave a risk of tax on unrealized gains on the one hand, and high tariffs on the goods Apple imports from China on the other.

[@Loundsify]

Probably thinks a big war is coming if that is the case.

[@FlyingFun.]

US is deffo over priced , always was always will be as long as the world uses the us dollar. Got nothing to do with how good the companies are but everything to do with them being able to print the worlds currency and pay workers high wages that they then invest into the sp500 for their pension. Once that changes all bets are off.

[@barito7]

@@FlyingFun. it’s not about value investing right now if you’re after the short buck in my opinion

[@BuyVWRD]

Where can we get the Goldman report?

[@bpb5541]

Don't listen to any of these WallStreet yahoos. They are all salesmen. Learn to trade price ... until you do you are getting yanked around. So you know all these firms and news outlets like CNBC Bloomberg whatever have both bearish and bullish stories all ready to go when the day starts. They pull out whichever is the flavor of the day. They don't know anything. No one knows which was the market is going to go. But there are people that know how to trade price movement. That is the real secret to all of this. The more you read from any of these people the less chance you have of making good money. Don't listen to them.

[@MatthewEng2593]

Why is simplicity important in your stock allocation?

[@EduardoMartinez-ys6fb]

Long dated Gilts can be had for 4.7% at the moment. If inflation stays below the BoE target of 2% that will give you a real return of 2.7% in the long term if the BoE does its job. In a recession stock prices go down but bond prices go up as BoE tries to reflate the economy by lowering interest rates. As we come out of a recession, you sell the bonds at a profit (which is not taxed because Gilts are excempt from CGT) and buy stocks at a lower price than they are now.

[@EduardoMartinez-ys6fb]

And by the way, the only risk is that Britain loses control of inflation which would be good for stocks and bad for long dated Gilts prices in the short term but the resulting high interest rates would kill the economy and we would get a recession. Then we are in the scenario outlined above playing out. Disclosure: I'm retired so 4.7% income from my Capital for rest of my life is more than enough for me.

[@mattinterweb]

Long duration bonds have little to no chance of outperforming stocks.

[@well-blazeredman6187]

Fascinating video. I've moved from 100% shares to 50%, with the balance into mostly bonds and some gold - largely in expectation of a stock-market crash. Warren Buffett would approve, I think.

[@ianboyd9723]

One of the best financial KZbin channels, lacks the Lambo and private jet though 😂

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you think so @ianboyd9723

[@grc7231]

well done.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @grc7231

[@dennismorris7573]

Very nice analysis. Certainly, food for thought. With my thanks.

[@Pensioncraft]

Very welcome@dennismorris7573

[@Cottoncandyh]

So what's the most effective strategy during this period of volatility with the rate cut? Most of my portfolio is in (20% Index funds, 20% CD's 30% Bonds/T-bills and other assets) I want to explore different strategies to benefit from a potential bubble.

[@Madridstrat]

With risk levels at an all-time high, it might be wise to exercise patience and revisit the market once conditions have stabilized.

[@Bunnydrille]

Agreed, utilizing a financial specialist did the trick for me in barely 5 years. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years and my salary was over 100k/yr, enough to get me fully invested. I'm semi-retired today with about $1m, and only work 7.5 hours weekly.

[@mikew5274]

These forecasts were done before the US election though, and GS and Vanguard have got forecasts badly wrong before. If you’d listened to GS and moved out of US stocks when they were predicting the S&P would do badly this year you’d have missed out on big gains. I’m about 70% exposed to the US by virtue of the global index trackers and tech fund that the vast majority of our ISAs are in, and I’m not really tempted to change anything. I could shift a bit into US small caps but to make a really noticeable difference it would have to be a large amount so no. That Ishares etf that Ramin is in is good, although I note it’s pretty small compared to its sibling the GBP denominated ISP6…liquidity could be a concern?

[@robertdewar1752]

USML (Invesco, USD) has a TER of 0.14%, where IDP6 (iShares, GBP) has a TER of 0.30%, however i would imagine the GBP-USD conversion fee wipes out the lower TER savings (I haven't run the numbers). As you say the USML fund has a very low fund size, and yes liquidity may be a concern here. Personally, i would buy the IDP6 denominated in GBP to take advantage of potentially lower spread and zero conversion fees. There's better ways to hedge currency.

[@fredatlas4396]

I thought Ramin was in Vanguard ftse dev world Acc etf

[@robertdewar1752]

@@fredatlas4396 What about it?

[@mikew5274]

@ Yes, I believe he’s in VHVG as his core fund…but in this vid he says he’s in Ishares S&P600 fund (USML) which is top of the list of US Small Co. funds he showed (unless I misunderstood him)

[@fredatlas4396]

@@mikew5274 Could be. He appears to have moved around with his investments over the yrs of doing these videos. He had some bond index funds at one point. He's changed his strategies as he goes along. I guess he's realising that a buy and hold strategy is best long term. John Bogle said don't try and time the markets, don't look for the needle just buy the whole haystack

[@will2461-j2n]

First time hearing such a low prediction for the stock market. I think it will be the opposite. The next decade will be the highest performace stock market ever due to currency debasement. The SP500 is highly correlated to m2 supply. The M2 supply will increase at ever increasing rates due to the mathematics of debt. The SP500 doesnt actually go up in value. Its the currency you are measuring it in that goes down.

[@thewholeshabang181]

Good luck with bonds. I wish you all the best.

[@mattinterweb]

They're going to need it

[@johnanddiann100]

Thanks!

[@bpb5541]

Agree... yields are going to go up not down.

[@choppergirl]

Government bonds? The US government is in trillions of debt and soon won't be able to make it's interest payments... No way you want to be buying government bonds and lending the government money... with a stroke of the pen they can pass a law to wipe out their debt obligations leaving you holding an empty bag and out of all your money.

[@jmitterii2]

They would never be able to borrow again if they default on bonds. No, what would happen is they would do what other countries had done in the past and money printer go burrrr literally print money to pay off bond holders not waiting for maturity just pay them all off and be done with the debt. Sort of like QE has done anyway with the Fed Reserve expanding its balance sheet over 7 trillion much of that are treasuries as well as junk bank loans CDO mortgage back garbage hence why banks keep pumping real-estate prices and why we've had an explosion in inflation money printing going burrr. But yes, any country could just print the money to pay bond holders. Typically this results in massive hyperinflation and complete collapse in the value of the currency. Argentina, Turkey, Zimbabwe, Germany's Weimar Republic that resulted in, well we know what they resulted in, etc.

[@bpb5541]

You would lend to them at 18%... trust me you would espeically if the stock market is anemic... flatlined or whatever. You would want yeild to at least keep up with inflation. Just like what happened during the great inflation of 1968-1982. And we are about to get that great inflation again... but it is going to be stagflation like the world has never seen... which is even worse. Best of luck.

[@choppergirl]

@bpb5541 Not lending anyone 35,951,601 Million dollars in debt... one penny. The chance of the US defaulting on Government Treasury bonds is through the roof.

[@BaileyMxX]

Defaulting to your creditors would literally be financial suicide. Considering a large weighting of US treasury and bondholders are outside the US it would destroy the dollar overnight as no one would have faith in it and pull everything to remove exposure to it. People would pull their money from dollar dominated and US companies in said scenario causing chaos in the financial markets. Much easier as reserve currency of the world to continue printing money and devaluing the dollar that way. Just telling people you aren't paying them back as the US just isn't going to happen.

[@bpb5541]

@ I hear excatly what you are saying. I think your thinking and millions of other is flawed. I don't say that with malace. I am mearly stating I disagree. Powell and therefor the govt is stuck. He knows it and is teriffied. He should be. If he cuts (to try and inflate our way out) like he just did 3 times the Bond market is going to revolt because bonds are valued in US Dollars. The US Dollar has lost 40% of its purchasing power in just the last 7 years. So say they just stay put don't raise or cut rates and Yellen wants to issue debt by selling treasuries. This is another form of QE and I think we could get bond auction failures ... which means the FED would have to come in and be the buyer of last result and that again would cause the bond market to raise the yield due to perceived inflation. Should they raise rates, the Govt can't afford the ever increasing payments on the debt and would need to raise money to that shortfall. They (congress the real villains here) usually do that by telling the treausery to sell bonds. We are back to the same spot as before. WE are in a no win situation. We can't cut because the bond market is going to revolt, we can't raise because we can't afford the interest payments on the debt. This is why Powell has been so wishy washy. If I figured this out. Him and his 400 PhDs certainly have. Now we just wait. I have been telling people for over 2 years now that we will know when the wheels are about to fall off when they try to do any type of QE and yields go up not down. We just witnessed this. The 3 month 10 year inversion ... uninverted, the reverse repo is almost out of money, CRE is in serious trouble, Inflation go to high so people are cutting way back on discretionary spending and the younger gernations are not having kids because they can't afford them. Hell many 18-32 year olds are still living at home. The highest percentage ever. Add some tax cuts, tariffs, and deportation and we have the perfect situation for stagflation like the world has never seen. Th only thing we are missing is some type of energy crisis... I went long on Nat Gas 2 weeks ago. I think that comes next and if that happens all the bubbles pop and we go into a really nasty recession (we are already in a mild one) or even a brutal depression. Now we wait. See what happnes next. And if my study of cycles has any credence .... might get really scary really fast. I think people should stop going long anything ... except maybe stacking food :0

[@josepha9313]

I need a little help understanding why, if the Fed cut 50 bps and an additional 25 bps this past week, why did UST yields go higher?

[@well-blazeredman6187]

Because the markets saw the Fed's cut as driven by politics, perhaps?

[@OnceUponATimeInJapanM8]

US candidate policies were both viewed as inflationary with little regard for fiscal moderation; trump’s even moreso. So markets are viewing a no or soft landing scenario and an un-inverted yield curve where historically long-dated UST spreads vs Fed terminal rate of ~170bps - ie. roughly where it is now. Until/unless the wheels fall off..

[@Avo7bProject]

The bond market is losing confidence that Powell knows what he is doing, and also pricing in risk as he tussles with Trump over policy. Personally, I have held my bond funds. I bought at these levels back in the spring/summer. Yeah I missed paper profits by not unloading back in August, but I figure if prices were good enough then, they're good enough now.

[@josepha9313]

@@OnceUponATimeInJapanM8 I'm not seeing where the 170bps number is coming from (?) Fed funds are 4.58 and the 30-yr is 4.60, what spread do you mean?

[@OnceUponATimeInJapanM8]

Bit unkind to the Fed who have a limited remit and tools, and are mostly reactionary to backwards-looking data and govt stimulatory policies which they have no control over. Recommend listening to a recent Odd Lots podcast (Nov 14) where they spoke to an ex-Fed official Richard Clarida for an insiders view of the current dynamic.

[@knowledgeseeker5499]

Simply it’s “Forecast” it’s like open disclaimer right on your face. After every year forecast they will say “ ooops we got it wrong this year…” same story every year 😂😂

[@xavier_lucas]

Where do market timers like me stand, I have 300k in money market funds with Fidelity and scared to invest in anything, stocks and gold are volatile alike and bonds are a no go area for me? What is the best course of action?

[@FranciszekPawal]

Wait until after all the polls are closed, do not make any moves yet. Nobody knows where this rollercoaster of markets is up next.

[@Avo7bProject]

When you are ready, take your time and average in across a year or more. Almost nobody can time a bottom precisely. One of my favorite adages is: "Prices that you never thought possible - actually ARE!" I have experienced this in my own investing. Sometimes a handful of shares at the very, very, bottom made up for many poor purchases at higher prices.

[@irontrader50]

GS is a good contrarian indicator 😅

[@erandeser5830]

In 1982 they predicted oil at 250. Still waiting...

[@mwscuba]

I’ve only got 45% in the US 🇺🇸 😂

[@marksmallwood4938]

Just stay invested. 100% equity until you die.

[@Andygb78]

I'm beginning to think like that as well. Maybe just a small amount of bonds if you want a secure monthly income in old age.

[@davidpearson243]

I’m planning to sell a few stocks before I die and spend as what’s the point

[@bpb5541]

Horrible idea !!! We are going to need to time this one. I think all markets drop by at least 75%. Please be careful.

[@hopsgegangen2575]

3% over 10 years, or 3%/year for 10 years?

[@mark.k7206]

It has taken NVIDIA 25 yrs from I.P.O to the world’s biggest valued company. These timelines are getting shorter & shorter over the decades. Within 10 yrs at least 3 companies will be as big as the 7. These vast timeline transformations can not be calculated by Goldman or even Buffet. I have no idea what % the U.S mkt will change over 20 yrs. but am extremely confident that at least 100 companies will join the s & p 500 from new & fast developing start ups. I have been sceptical of some of ARK investments, but Cathy Wood has the right idea about fundamental transformations in many industries, a 10 year horizon is now almost impossible to calculate due to these changes and I believe old models are redundant

[@robertdewar1752]

I believe this is an accurate description of what is happening.

[@GonzoTehGreat]

@@robertdewar1752 BELIEF is a dangerous thing. “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” ― Mark Twain

[@peterhar74]

How accurate were Goldman and Vanguard in their forecasts 10 years ago?

[@abc522]

These predictions are based on long term statistics in the sense that they will not be accurate if the window is just 10 years.

[@briansamaniego-howard1806]

They'll change their mind next quarter. More content for youtubers

[@tc9634]

Vanguard put 7% as the target, with an IQR from 3-11%. The actual figure was 13%. When you consider the PE went from 20 to 30, the PB went from 2.7 to 5.3, and the Shiller CAPE went from 26 to 38, they were actually bang on.

[@hachimaru295]

some of the predictions are wild on cnbc from big names

[@knowledgeseeker5499]

Simply it’s “Forecast” it’s like open disclaimer right on your face. After every year forecast they will say “ ooops we got it wrong this year…” same story every year 😂😂

[@jeffrylewinese8117]

Fantastic

[@antomakeria7881]

I agree, that's amazing

[@jeffrylewinese8117]

Yes, it is.

[@VitalyYuriyevou]

Wow!! That's amazing

[@josephblake8167]

❤‍🔥❤‍🔥

[@Bosshog-WealthHealthBetterment]

I'm very big on £ATT and £SMT and £SMGB, in part as I can't buy individual holdings (wife works in private equity, so restricted) and I'm somewhat limited on T212 to their options. Eventually I want to have £100K of my own money in each, currently at £67K, £44K and £29K, respectively. I will just trust the process, that tech is going to perform strongly over the 20 year time horizon I have, and ignore the crystal balling of the day, especially from a bank that predicted only modest upside this year, and are wrong at least as often as they are right. I will keep holding, and funnel more money into them as opportunities allow. Any dip is good news for me, long term.

[@kerrybyers257]

Concentration mirrors the personal wealth concentration, it seems.

[@johnristheanswer]

When were they last correct in their long term forecasts ?

[@payroll970]

Indices that are weighted by market capitalization are inherently momentum-based

[@elephantandcastle838]

The GS and Vanguard analyses will be music to the ears of Value Stock Geek and his Weird Portfolio then? I'm just left wondering what report would leave the investment community believing there is bad news ahead for a market weighted S&P 500 over the next 10 years...

[@TilSchweiger-i3f]

Your videos have been truly impressive! As one of your regular viewers, I've been following your content closely for a while now. I'm very interested in making an investment, but I’m still having trouble identifying the right opportunity to fully commit to. I would greatly appreciate any guidance or suggestions you might have in this area.

[@rvp589]

T212 is a Bulgarian co

[@TuckermanLane]

Do they mean 3% per year over ten years. Only 3% gain over 10 years would make stocks a non-investment.

[@davidcollier6520]

Thanks for this, it was very interesting. My knowledge of these matters isn't great but I'd have thought last week's election result would also be a big influence, e.g. it will be a pro big tech government.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you I am glad it was helpful @davidcollier6520

[@alfonsohorcajada4399]

Hard to believe this, forecasts are useless, they are right only when they get lucky!

[@simplydividends]

We are living in a world where technology advancement is accelerating. What happens in the next 10 years compared to the last 10 years is impossibly to predict. However with AI, I wouldn't be surprised if it unlocks so much more efficiencies that the market, especially the US market, will march on upwards. I have no intentions of moving away from the US or equities in any regard. Buy baby buy as Trump may say.

[@johnmknox]

That's what Jim Cramer says and he is often famously wrong.

[@bpb5541]

All this tech needs electricity. By estimation at least double. It takes years .. usually at least 10 to bring on new power plants. Everyone super crazy bullish Ai and EVs are 7 to 10 years early.

[@boombustinvest]

GS are correct. The Mag 7 have generated big sales from the rise of online after the pandemic and a delusional AI bubble which will not deliver ROI. Hence they will not sustain their sales over the next ten years.

[@russ1359]

With companies like palantier I think things will be fine.

[@theObserver-r8n]

My concern with small caps is the efficent innovative companies are gobbled up by the large cap and leave the ETF index. There's no compelling reason why the remaining small cap companies should outperform large cap esp when you consider small companies use services and infrastructure provided by companies like Amazon. Also, S&P 500 companies employ a large number of staff. CEOs will quietly cut staff and sell busines unit to keep their shares high for the medium term.

[@waterfordrs22]

The next four years could lead to deregulation which could mean more bad loans to small cap companies. Volatility is another concern.

[@cennamo66]

People are not taking into account geopolitical and environmental issues plus the immense debt we have. Furthermore they are not considering the social problems we have and the actions of politicians. In my opinion, we will have so instability and we run the risk of a sudden huge crisis which mankind will not be able to solve.

[@TeslaEVolution]

3 or6% seems INSANE comparing to LAST 100 years, 13% SPN500 AND 18.25% NASDAQ!

[@djrandizz]

10 years of being on sale?? Let’s gooopp!

[@divdep16]

Weren't Goldman the ones who got the housing 2008 crash wrong and thought they were smartasses 🤔

[@0tispunkm3y3r]

No, I think they made out like bandits, selling people the chod whilst buying default swaps against them. I think their problem was getting that swap money out of AIG when crunch time came.

[@stephtraveler7378]

All of these guys are correct. We are ALL Michael Burry in this era. We already know its coming. But, for now, make as much as you can.

[@Kin-28-8]

Despite stocks falling and bond yields rising, markets doubt the Fed's commitment to pausing interest rates until inflation is tamed. Unsure if selling my $138k in stocks is wise amid this market uncertainty.

[@bpb5541]

I think it is way more than that. If I may... we are running a 36 trillion dollar debt. Interest payment no outpace what we spend on defense. If you take govt spending out of GDP we are negative. WE are in a ponzi economy. The govt knows everything is stalling. Unemployment is way worse than is being reported (they know the true number) autos are in trouble, residential real estate is in trouble, CRE is in trouble, the banks are in trouble. The savings rate has almost gone negative. Defaults are at one of the fasts paces in history and the rate is rising. Credit card debt is at all time highs. And Everyone including the govt his way more broke then they even know. The Govt is going to try some type of QE... It comes in so many forms. The Bond market is not having any of it... which is why the FED cut twice and the yields when higher. The Bond market is not going to let the US Govt drive the US dollar to zero without a fight. And the govt does not control the bond market. I think folks are at great risk right here. Please be careful.

[@robertdewar1752]

Recently bought back into Upstart Holdings (UPST) and Microstrategy (MSTR) prior to the results to take advantage of Lower interest rates and BTC bullishness. It worked. Post election bought Dutch Bros (BROS) to take advantage of good results and bold expansion plans. We shall see. small and micro caps may do very well thanks to tarriffs and Small Cap 600 is a solid choice. I may investigate further and buy next week. Another great video Ramin, regards.

[@MrFrobbo]

MSTR all the way!

[@robertdewar1752]

@@MrFrobbo I had over 100K in there at one point and made about 60K. I now only have 15K in MSTR, always wary of BTC volatility. If i was brave i'd just put 100K in and leave it.

[@will2461-j2n]

@@robertdewar1752 Nothing wrong with taking profits. 15K in microstrategy will still make you a millionaire in the next 20 years. The only two stocks I care about are MSTR and Tesla. I buy other stuff for fun but no point in buying worse assets. Im expecting Bitcoin to hit $10,000,000 in the next 10 years. Thats a 130x. MSTR will probably double BTC so thats a 260x in 10 years. Your 15K will be worth almost $4,000,000. Say I am 75% wrong then you still earn $1,000,000 within 10 years. Then what happens if MSTR starts to get priced like a tech stock massively higher than its asset value. This could be one of the greatest investments of our lifetime.

[@MrFrobbo]

@robertdewar1752 go research YT for MSTR vids, see how Saylor is shorting the $ in the 'Infinate money glitch' and is about to buy $42b of BTC. His latest (2024) Q3 ATM video is THE one. Keep holding, buy more!

[@MrFrobbo]

@@robertdewar1752 my replies are being deleted 🤣

[@brianhoag3120]

Similar analysis by John Hussman, based on the high valuations.

[@fredatlas4396]

From about 1999 up until 2009, US treasury bonds did a lot better than the US stock market. Much better than S&P 500 index, or total US stock market index

[@theowenssailingdiary5239]

You've picked the worst ten years for stocks on record. Nobody can forsee this.

[@fredatlas4396]

@theowenssailingdiary5239 Exactly, bond prices were very low and yields high. And bond prices are low now and yields up, so returns on bonds may well be good going forward. And of course it could be good to have a bit of dry powder, keep some bonds in your portfolio just in case. I do realise nobody can reliably predict the future, not even over payed fund mangers or even Mr Buffet

[@theowenssailingdiary5239]

@@fredatlas4396fair points

[@pingbounce2851]

@@fredatlas4396but there’s more debt now, with worse debt to gdp ratios. Inflation will eat bonds, especially if there is another supply crunch, from say a China blockade of Japan.

[@joshr920]

@@theowenssailingdiary5239Think 1929-1939 was worse. Probably worse in the 1970s too. There have been many 5-10 year periods where bonds have outperformed equities in the past. It wasn’t a one off thing in 2000-2009.

[@danielb7253]

Big daddy’s say this. Red flags for me. For the timing being not now. It’s a bullish time to play in the markets.

[@jimspencer3072]

I held off the last two years waiting for the crash and that was a big mistake. However the market is sky high now

[@sarchmaster5779]

Large banks massively underwater on their bond portfolio are urging people to buy bonds? Sounds legit.

[@Daytona2]

Personally, I'm out of the market because base rates are higher than dividend yields. Simples 😊

[@edwardschneider6396]

The Buffet indicator has the stock market at 206% above fair market value.

[@jamesreed1969]

So, the message is - everything is possible 😂😂😂

[@barito7]

Be careful not to invest in bond funds that are essentially insolvent and are looking for new liquidity to get their money out.

[@1dash133]

I don't see any sense in investing in bond funds at the present time, not when T-bills are offering such favorable interest rates. I'd suggest that bank savings rates of 5% should also be considered as an investment option.

[@illegalgiant_]

Do pie investments get you hosed on the spread? it knows you are buying and selling a basket, are they making their money off you doing that)

[@thomaseast7699]

Great video. I reckon we might be OK for a while yet, with Trump election initially giving a bounce before who knows what? I think its best to wait and watch for the next few months. Great insight though and will definitely keep the small caps play front of mind.

[@nobullshoot]

recession that never comes and the market only goes up.

[@jont96686]

Isn't S&P concentration self- perpetuating now that the majority of investment is through index trackers? When you buy a tracker you automatically buy more of the Mag 7 than other stocks. Can't see this trend changing.

[@ernestmac13]

While an energy revolution has already started; it may take more than a decade for it to move the market higher, especially if it has to loft it from the bottom.

[@ulfpe]

The only forecast that will probably jevtrue is that GS will make a lot of money

[@keanuroy]

After ten years, no one will remember what Goldman said

[@BahaAl-Shaikh]

Wouldn't a global etf correct itself if US S&P performance declines?

[@tomstopper5281]

Elon will push technology development in the US with the new Trump government, and that will push ups the market.

[@bpb5541]

I disagree. I think Elon is smart but he is not smart in govt... and he is about to help wreck all of that. I mean he talked about privatizing Social security. That is all we need to know. And I think TSLA is worth no more than $60 a share. No one is going to have money to buy a car... let alone an EV here in about 6 to 9 months. Elon and TSLA are going to need a bail out but the Govt is so broke I am not sure that will come.... who know though he is trumps bestie. 😂

[@Tbc810]

Reminder that the s&p500 isn't the US equity market.

[@holisticallyme556]

I don’t get it one day you say don’t time the market then another you say divest… index fund all the way.. investing is boring by default for those who can’t afford losing it

[@RalphWu55]

This has been on my mind, thank you for covering it Ramin! Excellent video, as always.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @RalphWu55 Glad you enjoyed it!

[@ttrjw]

Regression to mean.

[@beny.5736]

Ok I'll do the opposite, thanks 😂😂😂

[@Country_Gent]

I am highly confident in my prediction that Goldman Sachs will be both right and wrong in some combination in their forecasts over the next 10 years.

[@mattinterweb]

I'm more confident they will be mostly wrong

[@bryonseverns5919]

Could be -30%, +40%, -10%, +20%

[@nickmcconnell1291]

It's too early to get into bonds. My guess is that Goldman over invested in bonds because they thought the market was going to go down this year. They may have particularly over invested in corporate bonds. They are trying to dump them now by generating demand for them. My recommendation is to wait for Trump to do something that causes investors to further get out of bonds and put their money into stocks.... which I believe will happen. Probably another round of corporate tax breaks. At that time the price of bonds will be beaten down and they will be a bargain... that's when you invest in them and ride them till the next stock crash then sell and buy stocks. Rinse and repeat. To summarize a quote from Buffet: 'When people are greedy that's when to be fearful.... when people are fearful that's when to be greedy'.

[@DaveCYFF]

Goldman’s launching new bond funds 😂

[@TeslaEVolution]

Well, OVERALL, it is harder, but AI will grow way FASTER than 7%/year/CAGR for sure, estimated at 36% for a DECADE!

[@ron5378]

These forecasts are never correct. The 'experts' cannot even agree amongst themselves. They're literally just guessing. And it means nothing. Just put your money into the S&P 500, and you'll do fine. Ignore all the clickbait/advert revenue nonsense.

[@timecone57]

Concentration shows investors value companies that are hard to “blockbuster “…most old companies look like they will die! AI will crush almost everything. Population decline will crush almost everything. Gs might be not seeing the forest through the trees

[@craccoon8764]

The problem with 212, can't transfer your investments. Caution

[@GonzoTehGreat]

The only thing of significance Goldman Sachs have contributed to the economy in the last ~25 years is the 2008 GFC. They're literally trying to predict the future, yet people take them seriously. The only thing we know for sure is that they will be wrong, but we don't by how much, because the stockmarket is unpredictable. The concentration of market capital in a relatively few (tech) companies does indeed means the S&P500 no longer reflects the wider economy and is overly leveraged in this area. As for investing in VALUE instead of GROWTH and diversifying your investments by (Geographical) region, this has been the advice for several years now, so GS aren't saying anything new.

[@AdamH7]

Do as they do, not as they say

[@mGgrese]

People forget that GS have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions 🫣

[@johnemanuele8695]

Never say never😂

[@grantboucher9342]

you show me your pie and i show you mine

[@crawfordviolin]

Yeah, it’s expensive, but AI!

[@nynelol1819]

3% ? XDDDDDDDD hahahah ... the S&P rises 3% - that's true ... but rather in 1 day, not 1 year ... SPY rose by like 70%+ now within 2 years ... goldman is just cooked in the brain or want to cockblock retail investors.

[@Cordycep1]

You only giving 2 choices of assets? Maybe for someone that are only patriots.