Where To Invest 2022

[@Pensioncraft]

If you like my videos then why not check out my weekly podcast “Many Happy Returns” many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/

[@TheUndulyNoted]

Some of the best content I've seen on KZbin - as always. Carefully researched and beautifully presented.

[@Pensioncraft]

Wow, thank you!

[@daniels897]

I got out of ARKK after watching your video with some nice profit before it tanked so thank you very much for the valuable content..

[@rhvre]

The financial part of the video is top notch as always... but I can tell you that car at 20:01 is definitely not slamming on the brakes :D

[@thejunglejag]

Exactly what I thought😀

[@AS-iu3pl]

Ramin, thank you for spoiling us with another great video. Never disappoints. Love your content, beautiful and clear charts. Well done.

[@Pensioncraft]

I appreciate that!

[@johndupont8596]

@@Pensioncraft Would love to know where you'll invest your ISA in 2022? :) Btw did you transfer your pension to Vanguard as well?

[@jroig824]

Since it's impossible to know what will happen next, all we can do is diversify our portfolio based on different reasonable scenarios, and stick to the long term.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Really nice breakdown of the financial markets. It is often very hard to predict future returns, but I put a lot of credit in Vanguard with their forecast models.

[@돈차]

I never subscribe to any stock investment talking youtuber because it influences my decision but you deserve to influence my mind in how i want to invest. Amazed by your content. Hope you succeed in 2022 ~ and so forward. I really like your approaching to the market.

[@unktzor]

I was wondering what to do and I can always come to your channel for a great voice of reason! Very underrated channel :) I just turned 29 but I love being busy with "pension craft"! Keep up the good work. Greetings from The Netherlands :)

[@Pensioncraft]

Wow, thank you!

[@robertlewis2]

The BMW is not slamming on its brakes; rather, it is drifting with the rear wheels spinning rapidly.

[@Pensioncraft]

Ha ha, I wondered if someone would point that out Robert 8-) The royalty free images available were limited I'm afraid. I guess you could say that the Fed may need to do a handbrake turn and that would definitely spook markets. Thanks, Ramin.

[@GengoSenmon]

New subscriber. Love this actual analysis and extrapolation. Plus the way you change physical video positions to explain different parts of the chart is very unique and so informative! Keep it up!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks and welcome

[@apothe6]

I think most people would be stunned to hear that CAPE Yield shows equity being "not expensive, not cheap".

[@mikehardwicke23]

I guess that's a function of interest rates and hence Shiller's modification?

[@dunk8157]

@@mikehardwicke23 Maybe inflation too. If inflation is really high then the real value of the stocks may not have gone up as much as we think they have.

[@danjuhl5134]

I like picking index ETF’s in attractively valued countries. Sometimes switch partially but no more than once a year. Currently have Singapore 50%, Norway and Russia 25% each. US stocks are ridiculously overvalued as are many countries.

[@lynn3051]

Ramon excellent video again my Hubble and I have started our portfolio this year better late than never and we really enjoy listening to your explanations and opinion, we look forward to your videos Thank You

[@Pensioncraft]

Fantastic!

[@kamrantaherkhani2066]

I cannot believe i can watch this for free ! Thanks

[@Pensioncraft]

Hope you enjoyed it!

[@daviemetalhead22]

Another amazing video Ramin, thank you!!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you Davie!

[@equestrianadvice]

Thanks for the insightfull discussion of what lies ahead. Always love Your down to earth approach. Thanks from the expensive Netherlands

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure!

[@ponzianomanning3071]

With negative -5% real yield on the 10yr the probability of equity PE's expanding to new all time highs is greater than ever, perhaps to >45 PE. Currently the Shiller PE on the SPY is ~40. However if inflation normalizes in 2022-2023, which some brilliant people argue it will, then bonds may become an attractive alternative to stocks again making equities riskier, then we may see a possible correction to prolonged lower valuations. Im remaining long because of the high tax burden of cashing out and there's no contender to stocks going into 2022.

[@epgui]

These are awesome graphs, thanks for the perspective Ramin!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you like them!

[@peixeverde6043]

One of your best videos. Concise, encompassing, speedy. I will definetly watch it a couple of times. You finish 2021 with a bang, colega!! Thanks Ramin, for the inspiring content! I wish you Merry Xmas and a happy new Year! Many treats for Teddy! Abrazo :-))

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @Peixe Verde! Merry Christmas to you too! And Teddy will have lots of treats 8-)

[@Shockjock9900]

Well thought out video. Much appreciated. My only comment is your Q3/Q4 predictions are the opposite of what a few other analyst are suggesting. They expect a very choppy 1H2022 (which is happening) and a very strong 2H2022. Interestingly though you and they both suggest Growth will out perform Value (less the overvalued hyper growth stocks) at the end, especially big tech FAANG companies. We'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[@freewind1977]

Thank you Ramin for your valuable insights as always.

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @Bassem

[@chancet6810]

Absolutely first class presentation. Thank you.

[@Pensioncraft]

You're very welcome!

[@johnster1964]

Many thanks for this. I would like to draw to your attention the sort of adverts that are played before your videos which are usually for low grade financial services. They clash with your content and values. J

[@MrMatisse22]

My projection for next year - blood in the streets.

[@barneychallen7201]

very lucid and entertaining channel Ramin. Thank you so much

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure

[@IncomeBoost42]

Great vid as always. China’s situation is particularly stressful, so much opportunity and yet political decisions can wipe away huge value, just like that.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@sanshuma0]

Great information well above financial media grade!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@sumitkar2704]

I just recently subscribed to your channel and love your detailed content. It is interesting to me that your conclusion about 2022 is relatively similar to Tom Lee ( someone whom I follow passionately) but the opposite of how we get there. He concludes that the first half of the year will be flat or declining but the second half will be a blow out

[@nicholask5078]

hi Ramin -great content as always - thanks for posting

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@ToddMatthewsFitness]

Interested to hear your thoughts on US inflation now that it's 6.8%.

[@4angayoga]

Really well done. You just got a new subscriber. Thank you.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks and welcome

[@Mouxbar]

Superb as ever, I'm personally thinking that supply side inflation will persist due to C19. Although Omnicron is hinting at much better outcomes going forward. Fingers crossed on that anyway :-)

[@MrMrVV]

I wish you did an analysis on the housing prices! Thanks for great content

[@Pensioncraft]

Great suggestion!

[@skinnymoonbob]

High historical returns for the SP 500 indeed, but what about the risk/volatility? Has that been relatively constant over the decades?

[@patrickdidier5938]

Very clear and nice as usual. Many thanks for your time

[@Pensioncraft]

You are very welcome

[@adamhopkinson7299]

Great video once again Ramin, great chart on country valuations. perhaps at the end of next year you could review your assumptions for 2022 and see if your were right on the red box at the end?

[@1309gsk]

great analyses. thx for showing this analyses on you tube

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you like them!

[@EidEIDE]

Greatly researched and educational!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks @Eid EID! Ramin

[@fretstain]

haha that is very much a car drifting, but I appreciate the visual aid

[@mackinnon182]

Can you do something on green investing? I for one am keen to divest from hydrocarbons and invest more in renewables and nuclear

[@Nerites2]

I would love to hear Ramin's opinion on that too...

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @mackinnon182 I've done a video on impact investing kzbin.info/www/bejne/nKqplKhuZ514fdU Thanks, Ramin.

[@investmenttudor1659]

Thanks for your meticulous work and calm voice (you should do voice over work). I do think CAPE is interesting, however we should look at this in the context of the return on fixed income. Such as ERP (equity risk premium). Much of the “expensive stocks” are a result of all investors conclusion, right or wrong, that there is no other alternative (TINA)

[@baycreekhistorydetectives4830]

There are few choices to beat inflation. BTI is one of my picks :)

[@juanvenegas5253]

how will realestate companies get affected by rising interest rates?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi Juan, generally it's not good for real estate if rates get _too_ high. But bear in mind that we're currently at the zero bound so even if rates increase they will still be low by historical standards. Thanks, Ramin.

[@Lengescp]

Interesting that the risk chart doesn’t show a Russia - NATO conflict or a US/China/Taiwan conflict as possible risks for ‘22

[@srenkronberg4552]

Great bit. Thanks a lot. Very informativ

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks so much

[@VenturiLife]

Brilliant explanations and charts.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

Danke!

[@garrettreynolds9145]

December 2022 the S & P 8.5% below forecast and inflation in USA 8.5%.A strange correlation?

[@NedFlanders39]

Thanks Ramin for the great info as always. Now that we see forecasts of US slowing down and other markets projecting better returns, is now the time to look away from global market cap weighted indexes? given that there's a huge overweight in US equity? Thanks :)

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Ned Flanders the other alternative which I mention in the video is to buy a global developed ex-US tracker like a tracker of the MSCI EAFE index (which is developed markets excluding the US and Canada). Thanks, Ramin.

[@NedFlanders39]

@@Pensioncraft Sorry, you're right you did. Thanks for the response :)

[@jouleSansLoi]

So we ought to get ready for a meh period? Looking forward to that.

[@Raffaella603]

Thank you Ramin for this video. Many believe that inflation is higher than official say. Which are than the best assets to invest in case of higher inflation? Thank you.

[@mikehardwicke23]

Shadow Stats showing 15% ish currently?

[@alokjoshi3016]

This is very informative. I am a big fan !

[@Pensioncraft]

Happy to hear that!

[@tylerm2676]

I'm just sitting on cash I have no idea what to do because everything is just too expensive right now... It's tough

[@ademcguinness8132]

It would be interesting to see an update on this video perhaps at the end of Feb / March, 2022, given what has happened. e.g. low probability events becoming more probable (e.g. War) and US Inflation has not Ebbed, but surged (beyond 7%- worthy note to UK inflation and cost of living crisis throughout UK and indeed the wider EU) and the Fed do appear to be way behind the curve and may well do too little, too late in order to curb inflation.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for your comments

[@silentwilly2983]

You mention gold as attractively valued and a good hedge against inflation. How do you look at gold compared to silver and other precious metals?

[@Finance-Food-and-Freetime]

It’s a bit more yellow

[@simony2801]

The question for me is where would the indexes be without 2 years of money printing / stimulus. Any takers.

[@gerrykelly-zk6lf]

Is that a reason not to drink from the punch bowl. Liquidity seems to be guaranteed by Central Banks. Why not make hay when the sun shines. I have a diversified portfolio, I'm not all in on equity, but I respect people like Ramin for there skill and knowledge. I just would not bet the farm on 100% equity/bonds, more so because I can't afford to loose to much before retirement and truthfully as I'm probably overly cautious.

[@mikeflair6800]

Yes. As the USA Fed has reversed course and has put 'inflation fighting' it's prime goal, the pump priming era 'EZ Money' is now ending, in 2022. That means to me the stock market will now 'revert to it's mean', and my expectation is now more normal, economic business generated 7 to 10% expectation, down from 10 to 15% Fed driven for many years now. However, it is still TINA, especially over the long term in the USA. A 5000 S&P at year end seems reasonable to me.

[@jabberwockytdi8901]

Wait and see what the price of Gold is next year when Basel 3 has been fully introduced.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Jabberwocky tdi do you think that Basel 3 is going to boost the price of gold? Thanks, Ramin.

[@krisnah7]

Really helpful. So much great content

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you think so!

[@KNaCl88]

I really appreciate your videos, Ramin, always very educational in a visual manner :) I was wondering if you could point me in the right direction to some sources on what would be the though process on building an economic model like the one you mentioned (Gold vs CPI + Tbill) and also if you would know any free platform to use just to experiment/validate the ideas, or you just use a tool like excel? Thank you :)

[@apothe6]

I'm investing in energy

[@mikehardwicke23]

Impact of introduction of CBDCs on markets (should it happen in 2022)?

[@mikehardwicke23]

Drifting not Braking (BMW). Hence tyre smoke being sucked into the vacuum on Lee side :-/

[@Spywon]

Could you please elaborate on the choice of the belly of the curve, especially as a hedge for equities (longer or shorter durations yields could possibly fall more)? Is it because volatility is expected to be less as a reaction to changes in inflation (upwards and/or downwards)? And obviously thank you very much for the quality of your videos. Appreciate your work

[@pamelatanner788]

Thanks very much for another very helpful video, Ramin. What is ur perspective on how all the massive debt and continued money printing by US and other governments will affect 2022? In itself, it should be causing inflation bc it lowers the value of currency. But when most people discuss causes of inflation, they don't usually mention it.

[@CaseyBurnsInvesting]

I hope inflation calms down but I doubt it will unless the deficit spending slows down.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi Casey base effects are still driving prices and they will continue to do so for several months. For example if the price of gasoline is fixed at today's prices then the year-on-year increase will remain above 20% for 7 months. But in terms of drivers a big component is energy which isn't affected directly by deficit spending. The main worry is that inflation will shift from pandemic-related activity changes to a longer term component like shelter and possibly from there into wages. So far that doesn't seem to be happening, but it's definitely something to watch. Thanks, Ramin.

[@CaseyBurnsInvesting]

@@Pensioncraft I disagree about inflation slowing down and not being linked to monetary policy such as the financing of the human infrastructure bill and will be investing as such for now. I will say though, I hope you’re right and I’ll look further into what you’ve mentioned. Thanks for the response and analysis as always.

[@stlouisix3]

Brazil is one place

[@izwaterloo]

Many thanks!

[@Pensioncraft]

You're welcome!

[@Pill-AI]

Excellent analysis

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@billbodge3879]

With China real estate being 30% of GDP and them using 50% of commodities, hard to see how inflation can be sustained in short term with the property market being crashing. Longer term, reshoring and politically instability is where is see inflation coming.

[@omantel147]

What about commodities?

[@ZenTradeGame]

As always great content! Surprised you don’t have 500k subscribers yet .

[@Pensioncraft]

Working on it!

[@Dave-cf4xq]

Hi Ramin. Just discovered your very excellent videos and really enjoy them. I just retired and have some cash to invest that I will need to use through retirement. Any videos on investing if you're already retired? Bonds are a disaster and equities are probably heading toward a significant correction which will be hard to recover from for a retiree.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi Dave thank you for supporting us on KZbin. The second half of this video about rebalancing is specifically for retirees kzbin.info/www/bejne/nJWsZmx6q5h9i8k and may be helpful. Bonds are safer than equity as usual and if equity crashes they will rally so I don't agree that they're a disaster. If you think rates are going to rise a lot just switch to bond funds with shorter duration or even use cash (zero duration). Thanks, Ramin.

[@ziggyelliott8094]

super and thanks again !!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you too!

[@nminhas8486]

I was thinking off investing in vangaurd now is it a good time and what should i invest in

[@ImmuneGEORGE]

It depends on your time scale and risk tolerance? The general consensus for long term investments (>10 years) is to invest in a global equity index fund. I'd definitely advise spending a couple of weeks doing some research first, don't invest in anything you don't understand! On another note, no one knows whether or not it is a good time to invest. I'd dollar cost average if you are worried about a sell-off.

[@obnoxiaaeristokles3872]

Thanks for the great video, Ramin. I have heard other youtubers recommend index backed large cap stocks with high operating margin as robust investments during times of increasing inflation. Do you think that it is really that simple?

[@munair]

Thanks!

[@Pensioncraft]

Welcome!

[@anv.4614]

Thanks so much.

[@Pensioncraft]

You're welcome!

[@peoriaos6627]

Thank you. I looked at Vanguards forecast from early 2019 and it was pretty much the same,vwhich means not only has it achieved the total of the full decade already, but also, it is doubtful that there is any credibility in this report... knock on wood.. after all, nobody can predict the market... Correct?

[@susangore7571]

Impressive, I realized that the secret to making a million is saving for a better investment.. I always tell myself you don’t need that new Bentley or that vacation in Hawaii just yet and that mindset helps me make more money investing. For example last year I invested precisely 84k grand in stocks and index funds (with the help of my advisor Kate Weller of course) and made 246k, but guess what? I put it back and traded with her again and now I’m rounded up the year with over a million. Hoping to get to over 2 million in my portfolio in 6 months time.

[@dunk8157]

I was thinking that with inflation it's a backwards looking indicator. So on hearing the news that inflation is 6% you can't really do much about it as it's already happened.

[@mutton_man]

Yeah markets already priced in before you have a chance to have your coffee.

[@gerry2345]

I like this vid.. Good insight..

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks @GerrysPlace

[@slovokia]

I am not sure that fixed income / cash real returns are mean reverting. There have been long periods of negative real returns in both - sometimes lasting 40 years. Governments that choose to fund themselves via debt monetization can have a very large effect on the fixed income real interest rate regime. Claims on real assets are probably safer in the long run. The problem is that real assets are very expensive right now. Odds are everyones oxes are going to get gored.

[@cnlindx1491]

Really good video - I would have also liked to see alternatives to Equities and Fixed income to mitigate an elevated Inflation level. i.e Real estate and alternatives. It seems that alternatives is growing in portfolios in general.

[@clairefrewman1456]

I believe that the inflation is already priced in the market since the end of last year. These manipulators are always 2 steps ahead of everybody because they are market makers. I hope I’m wrong and they won’t keep dumping it on retail investors as always. i feel those who hold the longest will profit the most. my two cents though, I hold good companies Apple, tesla and others. Credits to my adviser, Rita Wildrin Mora.

[@serenewhopperman2924]

currently holding too and i try to ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless

[@peterminshull6613]

Given the permitted time constraints, commendable effort at crystal ball gazing ably supported by data graphs. I’m somewhat more pessimistic than you on the outlook for inflation. As Prof. Shiller himself admits, the drawback relying on Shiller CAPE data is while it has proved dependable at forecasting likely market returns over the course of a coming decade, it’s of little-to-no use when it comes to predicting market turning points. Regards from High Wycombe, and keep up the good work. PS: I see you got a plug in this weekend’s FT as one of the contributing sources to the article “Ark’s Cathie Wood: ‘Queen of the bull market’ faces her toughest test”.

[@AaBb-fb8yz]

6:51 2010 to 2020 neither cheap nor expensive, yet insane returns! I guess these returns were not inflation adjusted.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Aa Bb in 2010 equity started the decade cheap and had huge returns in the following decade. So the Excess CAPE yield was spot on. We're still seeing the tail end (possibly!) of that rally. The decade starting from today is neither expensive or cheap according to Excess CAPE yield so it's not very informative. CAPE, however, and Vanguard's fair value CAPE both suggest that equity is very expensive in the US and consequently the returns will be very modest by historic standards, particularly for US growth stocks. The S&P 500 returns in that graph are real so they are inflation adjusted. Thanks, Ramin.

[@AnAussieinNorway]

19:44 That’s a BMW drifting. Powering down through a corner. The complete opposite of slamming on the brakes. Silly

[@greenfrog58]

Great video! 🇸🇪👍

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks for the visit

[@Finance-Food-and-Freetime]

Great video

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@cemsmz]

Thanks

[@Pensioncraft]

Welcome

[@socratesXLIX]

I think the market is going to go down very fast. I think cash is the best place to be.

[@Christian-eh8iu]

Tak!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you

[@youputallprofessorstoshame5755]

Q1: Inflation now is purely cost- push not demand driven. So if individuals and companies have less disposable net income caused by higher costs for essentials why on earth would the Fed increase rates ? It would cause more punishment and not stop excess aggregate demand ; because that’s not the problem is it ?

[@youputallprofessorstoshame5755]

To add. Have a look at the velocity of money indicators not supply. Velocity of money has cratered to the lowest level in history since 1960.

[@lsy1706]

Very informative

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you think so!

[@wizzydq1]

hmmm Japan then?

[@mineshpatel5517]

Hi Thanks for the amazing content. I cannot find an ETF that allows me to invest globally excluding USA or in developed markets excluding USA. Could you please point me in the right direction? I am in UK and searching on justETF or interactive investor. Many thanks

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi Max in the US they have several MSCI EAFE index trackers but not in the UK. Some UK brokers let you buy ETFs that trade on NASDAQ e.g. II has this ACWI ex-US tracker www.ii.co.uk/etfs/ishares-msci-acwi-ex-us-etf/NASDAQ:ACWX where ACWI is all of DM and EM but this ETF excludes the US. Alternatively you could build up ex-US exposure with the largest regional funds i.e. developed europe, japan etc. It's another example of the poor ETF choices we have in the UK. Thanks, Ramin.

[@mineshpatel5517]

@@Pensioncraft Hi Ramin, Thank you for your prompt response. Eventhough I can search on the above ETF on the interactive investor platforms, when I come to trade it, it’s not available. This is the response I got from II …..Unfortunately, we do not support trading in International ETFs. It is a business decision not to offer overseas ETFs due to the revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) which came into force across the European Union meaning we will not allow customers to purchase any investment without a valid KID. You were right on Or chances of ETF choices in the UK:( Thank you again for trying.

[@dunk8157]

@@mineshpatel5517 You could look at what percentages the regions make up and make one yourself out of different ETFs. Eg a mix of UK, Europe, Japan and Developed Asia.

[@anthonycook6050]

I would not go of the statistics any more after the pandemic cause we don’t know what is going to happen

[@easternise]

This is over my head.

[@lt8833]

That car is not slamming the brakes