Peter Lynch: Why You Should Always Ignore Economic Predictions When Investing

[@josephbrolly7232]

Lynch is an absolute scholar and a gentleman. One hell of an investor and a great teacher. Loved his books

[@InvestorCenter]

Yep. He sure is!

[@Matt90541]

4:25 - Lynch us poking fun at developing countries and overweight people. Who is his employer? We need to cancel this behavior.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

I was very, very unimpressed by this talk. He may have valuable things to offer, but if that is so it is not apparent here.

[@mikekorn6968]

@@Matt90541 This is 25 years ago. He was a Vice Chairman at Fidelity Inv. Legendary visionary investor.

[@stevenlamont4452]

Peter Lynch the 🐐

[@dumolollen7676]

Mr. Peter lynch is right as an investor as long the companies with good business are their, there is no need for looking at economic datas

[@Mrbfgray]

I think the main message is there are *always* reasons to be fearful and it's impossible to time AND it's ridiculous to fear market reactions to a nuclear holocaust.

[@inertiaforce7846]

I agree completely most economic predictions are bullshit. Economics is not a hard science. It's not physics or chemistry.

[@InvestorCenter]

Exactly!

[@MrAngryCucaracha]

I dont think there is a difference between hard or soft science, science is science. Economics has a much greater difficulty to do experiments and depends on many variables that are currently unmeasurable, so the models and predictions are much less acurate.

[@inertiaforce7846]

@@MrAngryCucaracha well there's something called "social science". Psychology is also a "science". Neither of these are nearly as trustworthy as physics or chemistry. That's why I distinguish between hard science and soft science.

[@inertiaforce7846]

@@MrAngryCucaracha I read your post again. I actually agree with what you said. Science is science but economics has a much greater difficulty to do experiments with. Agreed. This is what I mean by hard science and soft science. When the experimental evidence is not good or harder to do experiments with I consider that to be a soft science. It's just a slang term. Technically however, I believe you are correct.

[@MrAngryCucaracha]

@@inertiaforce7846 thanks! I think I dont like the term because it seems to imply a qualitative difference rather than just technical challenges. Not that I have a better term to propose though.

[@owentomos2306]

Economic predictions are based on the premise "with all things being equal". But in reality they never are. There is always some unexpected change or shock to the system.

[@InvestorCenter]

This is very true. Warren Buffett says with economics you have to ask, “and then what?” Because it’s impossible for only one thing to change

[@coinswaptrader2915]

those shocks are temporary deviations from the NORM....which over time rebound back and settle at the norm again after long enough time...

[@WasabiJohn]

Brilliant person... He was on the individual investor's side...

[@elroco4827]

I agree. It will only discourage you. You have patience and understand that it will go up and down.

[@dakotah3043]

Great video. Thanks. Always posting very timely concepts and videos

[@InvestorCenter]

Glad you found it useful!

[@smithtimothy93]

Nobody laughed at his funniest joke. "They're a bull if they take their lunch on the way to work."

[@InvestorCenter]

😂😂😂

[@luxciousupholstery]

Can you explain the joke?

[@smithtimothy93]

@@luxciousupholstery I took it as most people are so bearish on Mondays that they don't even bother to pack a lunch, implying they won't survive that long.

[@cliftt]

It went over their heads. I didn't get it until u explained. Frankly, didn't hear it. He talks so fast.

[@wilfriedvomacka1783]

I didn't catch that either. It is good one! Whenever I watch Peter Lynch's talk, I don't know if I'm watching investor's talk or stand up show.

[@cosmiccoffee8497]

"Ask if he knows if the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape of the yield curve." Always a classic.

[@Adam-ui3ot]

His sense of humour is brilliant.

[@id10t98]

Waking up with no financial worries makes one's outlook on life a lot more rosy and humorous for most people.

[@jorgegomez524]

Sign of intelligence

[@quangdluong298]

@@id10t98 then I don't think you have even read the wikipedia about him then : D

[@AlejandroRasmussen7]

Reality is uncertain, we with our minds see patterns to make sense of it, and there are patterns….the problem is when we go overboard and try to make sense of everything….forgeting about the uncertainty of life…..the stock market reflects the universe in that uncertainty is always there looking us in the face…..

[@jimmymaldonado5215]

“One up on Wall Street “ great book

[@InvestorCenter]

Definitely one of my favorite investing books

[@Duncan94]

There is ALWAYS something to worry about. That's the key here. There's always been people banging on about inflation, interest rates, national debt, war etc... there's ALWAYS something to worry about, always has been, always will be. But it doesn't take away from the fact that the stock market has been the best place to be for the last 50+ years easily. Put your money in to the S&P 500 and LEAVE IT.

[@arnesbeganovic]

exactly!!!First it was Covid, economy stopped, tourist can not travel, money does not flow and everything went down, then came disruptions with deliveries and market went down, then they said we printed to much money inflation is coming and stocks went down, and precise when we accepted that, Russia starts war with Ukraine and market goes down, and then oil prices went up, market goes down. But, heeeeeeey... what happend with Covid? Shouldn't we recover now little bit for Covid. It's gone now? So it's same old story as Peter talks in this video. Everything is in your guts. If you know the company you own, understand risks, know where money comes from and where it goes and at what rate, you can decide if it is good future for company or not. And act accordingly. Last year I had 16% ROI and this year I am already at 18% and market went down 30%. I had -30% at some point but did not sell. BOught more. Next report came and showed nice numbers, prices went up. Bang. Bingo.

[@pydzio]

5:00 Japan actually went through worst depression in 90"s. Whoever invest their money back then has basically lost great amount of it.

[@jesseflores9087]

that happened to japan in the 80s prior to this video

[@becausereasons41]

They're still in it...

[@juju10683]

Even with dividends reinvested?

[@IamGrimalkin]

@@becausereasons41 As far as the stock market is concerned at least, Japan started being okay in ~2010 (which by the way, coincided with their Shiller P/E ratio falling to ~20 compared to the bouncing to ~70 it was before and during the long collapse).

[@jimhen459]

His best book was Beating the Street. I like that he is a short position trader-- as I see myself. I think he over diversifies however. Running Magellan however he was forced to. His bright spot was revealing the restrictions fund managers imposed on him. For example he once disclosed he couldn't invest in union run companies. Many fund managers followed this abstract nonsense-- leaving underpriced deals for unrestricted management.

[@liberty9404]

It pays to zig when others zag. Last year when everybody said the oil market was done, I bought the dip and today I'm laughing all the way to the bank

[@InvestorCenter]

Good move!!!

[@awesomearun5363]

There's always something to worry about..❤️

[@InvestorCenter]

Yeah!

[@eminhawa]

Yes humans don’t know how to enjoy the moment until they are old and have all sorts of health issues.

[@scottw5315]

Oil went from four to forty and we had double digit inflation...I respect Mr. Lynch but there were real hard times out there for average Americans. My parents could barely keep the lights on in those years. Thank god for Paul Volker who reined in inflation and double digit interest rates. That's when we had government helping us instead of selling us out like the current one.

[@Mike_ICP]

Wow changed my perspective of the man. I like him

[@joeblack1490]

Noise is only created to distract you from what really matters.

[@artyzinn7725]

Couldn't agree more. Beware those who are interviewed on the news as often they are trying to manipulate sentiment to profit on an already purchased position. either bearish or bullish, depending on what the pundit is saying.

[@Jonathan2342]

Not saying he is wrong but a couple things to consider. #1). In 1997, interest rates were about 6%, now, in order to keep the market growing, and avoid recession, the government has lowered interest rates to zero. That not only has hurt bond investors but also has eliminated that tool from future crashes. #2 there has been 4 quantitative easing from the US government since then, and it’s getting to the point where inflation is actually a real concern In order to avoid any economic hiccups, western governments have taken radical and possibly irresponsible action to support markets, which has allowed poorly run companies to stay afloat on cheap debt but the fact is the government is running out of tools to keep it going. Does that mean he is wrong about the 15 years, no. But that does not mean that there are not some real problems starting to show right now, especially if you consider the amount of dollars the us exports around the world.

[@MsCoralyang]

Yup, ppl are becoming such woodies, they can’t take a down time, but this will eventually catch up with us… it’s not going to go up forever.

[@justus.justus]

10:13 "Overseas the numbers are much better", still applies today. You should look to Brazil now, it's quite low-priced

[@InvestorCenter]

Overseas companies are a lot less closely followed so there is a better chance of them being mispriced

[@IrineuEvangelista]

Brazil's risk is off the charts.

[@usazar]

Jair, Modo, Erdogan, Putin...... Won't touch these with a 10 foot pole.

[@justus.justus]

@@IrineuEvangelista Funny that Buffett put 500 million in Brazil's Nubank

[@IrineuEvangelista]

@@justus.justus everyone is talking about that... Doesn't mean at all that Brazil's risk is low! specially if you consider well known state run companies. My guess is that, if it's true, buffet sees great value in that specific business - and it indeed seems to have.

[@KelechIwuaba]

Noise all around, always a reason to spazz out

[@InvestorCenter]

That is true!

[@indiescripter4713]

Thanks boss, I have indeed liked and subscribed to your channel. Great stuff!!!

[@InvestorCenter]

Awesome, thank you!

[@paouvous]

THE man, the Legent!

[@madalomusic2097]

Good stuff. Thanks for posting.

[@InvestorCenter]

Glad you enjoyed it. Thanks for watching

[@InvestingwithKurt]

That's a good one, could not agree more!

[@breadwinner7438]

Hello Hi Invest in a secure platform and broker where you will not lose your funds. I'm new to trading, but I met Mr. Raini Titan here on KZbin where he teaches people to trade forex and stocks. which he guides me with a super platform and amazing strategy. I thought it was a scam, but finally I cashed my first $ 57,000 profit last week, he is very reliable and honest, he always tells me the actual time of buying and selling with 100 profit from his one-on-one master training.....Stay bless

[@breadwinner7438]

[e-mail])

[@red9741]

Thank you so much for this upload

[@InvestorCenter]

I’m happy you find it interesting!

[@MsCoralyang]

Wow, this video aged very well. Almost like a comedy show. But sadly, history repeat themselves.

[@Mrbfgray]

The title alone is one of the greatest revelations to sound investing, are we not constantly fed FUD about the future if only to give news peddlers something to do? How much more time could we spend evaluating companies, etc., if we ignore the daily economic predictions?

[@InvestorCenter]

Yes - that is very true. Very insightful

[@ProductionJunction1]

“But this time it’s different”

[@VivekMishra-wp5zh]

Predicting economic future is like the old weather prediction....you are very rarely correct

[@InvestorCenter]

That is a good way of putting it

[@whitelotus_zero]

Everytime I see this man in thumbnails I assume it’s a sketch on Andy Warhol 😂 👀

[@InvestorCenter]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@MoementumFinance]

Peter Lynch is a genius ininvesting. He is knowledgable, funny and remembrable. 👌😎

[@focusrelax8838]

How do you know a company is miss priced ? Over or under valued ?? What key numbers do we need to know ? Amazon always overvalued last 10 years etc , is apple under valued ?

[@austinbryan6759]

Stop worrying so much. All these questions are unknowable. Amazon could be in a bubble right now. Youre trying too hard to get rich quick. Stocks go up across 15 years so it doesnt matter so much. Research the companies and decide how much growth you think they have. No one knows these answers

[@focusrelax8838]

@@austinbryan6759 that’s what I want to know, what makes his comment that he thinks amazon is under or overvalued

[@tomlxyz]

There can't be simple key numbers to look at to judge that. If there was people wouldn't buy overvalued stocks and immediately buy undervalued ones and both would disappear

[@Michael-st9ky]

@@focusrelax8838 stocks are always overvalued 🤣🤣 i stopped listening to that lame excuse. I look at the CEO, the market cap and the competition

[@Michael-st9ky]

@@tomlxyz there are numbers, it’s usually Enterprise Value / operating income

[@colinstokes3826]

I totally understand his humor and sarcasm, everyone thinks and invests the same, even in 2021..

[@terran236]

That's why it makes me laugh when people say certain forms of technical analysis is outdated. I don't see how any system is outdated when human psychology is repetitive.

[@zyxwfish]

Even Munger didn’t try to time head winds or tail winds. I’m a fool for not investing more into coal stocks. Next time I see an opportunity I’m not messing around.

[@ziskokid1]

The end is always coming....

[@KevinDrongowskiSmart]

Just think, he said all of this before quantitative easing.

[@micheletorres4593]

QE has been happening since the crash of 2008

[@30H3Sunrise]

I'm not a history expert or a federal reserve expert, but I think the federal reserve had a huge balance sheet during WW2. I don't think this is unprecedented. I could be wrong.

[@mghoang]

I was 23 when I graduated college. I searched Amazon for stock market books. I found Peter Lynch and read his books in the following order: 1) learn to earn 2) one up on Wall Street 3) beating the street

[@InvestorCenter]

His books are great!

[@Ben-yw8be]

Brilliant.

[@bobfeller604]

The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game...perfect.

[@gibbogle]

To make an economic prediction requires predicting human behaviour. Good luck with that.

[@tom4115]

billions of individuals each with billions of neurons and their own unique thoughts, emotions, biases etc. Good luck is right.

[@SurferTy]

So. Don’t invest? Do not review historical P/E trends? Typical bull lengths. Typical bear lengths. Do not try to understand debt cycles. Just give up?

[@spencerkimble3824]

So many stocks are detached from that view

[@MegaDon000]

Economy is in negative but market doubled....its operators game....

[@luisoncpp]

Ok, I agree with that, but still I think that today there is more to worry about :P EDIT: ok, I just reached 2:14, haha, I was talking about worries related to stock market, not that kind of(bigger) worries.

[@millenialmusings8451]

peter lynch speaks so fast he literally skips words lmao

[@baritony8763]

I was looking for insight,some comfort(real or genuine,I would not know) but mostly the perception of some degree of sincerity. If he didn't seem to be seeking laughter so much I'd be better off watching a comedian.

[@MoneyMindsetM]

He's GOT!

[@ronit.pereira7172]

There's some audio issue when you spoke. I could hear louder from my left earphone

[@onlyeightpsi]

Experts are currently saying oil might go to 100 haha, and many folks a yr ago said oil wouldn't pass 50 in the foreeable future

[@InvestorCenter]

Yep, exactly right 😂

[@yoyoyoyoyoyoy9]

If he didn't cash out early 2000, then he lost a lot of money. I know people like to scare everyone. But there is times when crashes are on the way. Like now

[@catherinequinn877]

Ticker: CMKI💰

[@Kyusoath]

I can believe this guy rents kids for the weekend.

[@InvestorCenter]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@XzotecMania]

Is this the same Investor Center that hired Jordan Belfort?

[@stephennixon9780]

Great video! With regards to inflation, however. Expectations can dictate that inflation will occur, right? When people believe they will be able to make a higher wage, they will not settle for a lower paying job. When people believe something will cost more in a few months, they buy more of it now. So, buzz about inflation can be a self fulfilling prophecy can't it?

[@adrianaproudcatholic]

You do not need experts to tell you about inflation. Just go to grocery store. Pay attention to your wallet. It is the best honest economy expert you can get.

[@breadwinner7438]

Hi Invest in a secure platform and broker where you will not lose your funds. I'm new to trading, but I met Mr. Raini Titan here on KZbin where he teaches people to trade forex and stocks. which he guides me with a super platform and amazing strategy. I thought it was a scam, but finally I cashed my first $ 57,000 profit last week, he is very reliable and honest, he always tells me the actual time of buying and selling with 100 profit from his one-on-one master training.....Stay bless

[@breadwinner7438]

[e-mail])

[@harmhoeks5996]

P/E is still at 35... Economic predictions are kind of vital here...

[@InvestorCenter]

I get what you are saying. I believe with Peter that it is impossible to predict future economics and with the market at the given levels, investors should be cautious

[@harmhoeks5996]

@@InvestorCenter Why are investors scared of inflation? Does it always lead to higher interest rates?

[@JP-vi4ig]

@@harmhoeks5996 yes, that's how the fed controls inflation, by hiking rates. Of course, the fed claims it's transitory so they're not gonna raise rates for a while. They wanna keep the party going while they lie about inflation.

[@phoebeaurum7113]

But who wants to be left holding the bag?

[@breadwinner7438]

Hi Invest in a secure platform and broker where you will not lose your funds. I'm new to trading, but I met Mr. Raini Titan here on KZbin where he teaches people to trade forex and stocks. which he guides me with a super platform and amazing strategy. I thought it was a scam, but finally I cashed my first $ 57,000 profit last week, he is very reliable and honest, he always tells me the actual time of buying and selling with 100 profit from his one-on-one master training.....Stay bless

[@breadwinner7438]

[e-mail])

[@matthew4511]

And now today, people are worried about inflation, even though stocks are generally a good place to put your money during inflation.

[@InvestorCenter]

Exactly! That’s why I posted the clip

[@CaseyJMack]

Yes people don't understand that during inflation, good businesses will adjust prices swiftly and profit more. Owning a good business (stock) is a great way to profit from inflation.

[@matthew4511]

@@CaseyJMack a great hedge against inflation is a good business that will compound earnings faster than rising rates of inflation.

[@coinswaptrader2915]

I feel low cap venture stocks will do extremely well with inflations...

[@matthew4511]

@@coinswaptrader2915 any in particular?

[@yakirisraelyadai]

Can someone help me understand what he meant by predicting interest rate 5 time in a row and 10k can make you 2 bil

[@javajav3004]

No one can predict interests rates because if you did you would know exactly how the market would react

[@rksharma10911]

jai radheshyam jai sitaram

[@user-wm2tw]

???

[@id10t98]

Thank goodness we have the financial genius of people like Anthony Scaramucci, Kevin O'Leary and Mike Novogratz now to take the place of people like Peter Lynch as they age. The clown show cant offer sound financial investing advice but they can sure pump and dump crypto coins, bad stock picks and other garbage like Lynch never thought of...

[@dmonleon24]

I blame the big short movie, every1 wants to be right and predict the next crash, they won’t

[@Daniel-qj3tp]

One smart man👍

[@InvestorCenter]

Yes he is! Peter is one of my favorites!

[@lawrencefox563]

One sentence my head smoking and it's non stop comparisons for study.

[@krzysztofwlezien6043]

So, what is the message? Go and buy... if it goes down don't cry, just remember in 15-25 years it will be high again... for sure 😁. All you need to do is to make sure you live long enough. I just wonder if everything was so much ******-up then as it is today?

[@tomlxyz]

Well, yeah If you're concerned about what you have to spend in the short term you shouldn't invest in stocks. It's very unlikely that you're gonna make consistent outperformance of the market if you invest actively or day trade

[@krzysztofwlezien6043]

All I mean is that it may not be the best time to encourage people to buy stocks telling them that people had always been worried about something and it always turned out to be peanuts. There are plenty of listed companies that haven't gone under only thanks to cheap credit.

[@tom4115]

@@krzysztofwlezien6043 So don't buy those companies. Plenty of companies with zero debt, fair valuations and good future prospects.

[@krzysztofwlezien6043]

@@tom4115 if you can name a few. If we have recession and the markets will crash even good ones will go under and it will be a lottery to pick those which will survive.

[@tom4115]

@@krzysztofwlezien6043 Facebook, Google, Amazon to name a few. The least risky stocks in the world and will never go bankrupt. On the more risky side Palantir, Square and Tesla. Personally I believe it's wise to always have at the very least 10% bonds and 10% gold and 5% crypto in a porfolio, (mine in 20% gold, 25% cypto, 10% bonds, 45% stocks) then rebalance if something crashes 50+% or on a semi regular basis regardless.

[@loughful]

All that he is saying is that don’t listen to Jimmy Crammer and the CNBC folks .

[@KLim13378]

bloomberg is equally bad

[@amdistant5547]

Speeches are always easy to give especially from someone whose dealing with "other people's money". When your dealing with your own hard earned money then it matters what happens short term and the long term. Just ask the people who bought into tech shares at the height in 2000, or the ones who held banking stocks in 2007-8. It's not easy seeing 80% of your money evaporate within a week or two.

[@InvestorCenter]

I completely get what you are saying. That is why I like to listen to people like Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger who directly manage their own capital alongside investors

[@crk140]

Very well said

[@jonmccormack6107]

Especially difficult if it takes a long time to come back. Waiting a decade or more to break even, makes an impression. The biggest long term damage can be the biases and emotional baggage after that experience preventing good financial decision making in the future. Some sold at the bottom of the market and never came back.

[@rooseveltbrentwood9654]

I like Peter Lynch but getting as low as you can is great advice if there is a nuclear attack (or even a large conventional explosion). If you are too close to the explosion, yeah it’s not going to help much. However, if you are a little further out, and say in classroom with plenty of windows your main worry is going to be the innumerable shards of glass flying at you a high speed after the shockwave blows out all the windows. “Duck and Cover” people! p.s. In old timey talk great just means big or important. ya know, we had the Great War, then the Great Depression, “I am Oz, the Great and Terrible” and all that jazz.

[@tom4115]

100%. It will help you survive the shockwave and probably also stop you getting blinded by the light. If you're far enough away you may be able to escape upwind and outrun (in a vehicle) the fallout. Obviously not going to do anything if you're inside the explosion lol.

[@Karl_with_a_K]

Hello everyone, can I just say.... If you've watched the full video... don't worry your investment portfolio won't collapse if you come play golf in Ireland 🤣🤣🤣 Great story from Peter there, he certainly has the gift of the gab. He must have kissed the blarney stone while in Co Cork 🤣🤣🤣

[@thepizzza]

Can someone explain the part about interest rates? 10 grand, 5 times in a row gets you 2 billion dollars. How does that work?

[@bradleyboyer9979]

I assume he means if you could correctly guess interest rates, you could short or long bonds and be correct each time, thus making a lot of money. Regarding how he got to 2 billion, I don't know. But he is correct that if you could know interest rates with certainty, you would make an unlimited amount of money.

[@pïnnédbycarmïnerosato]

Thanks for watching and commenting, for more guidance and investments......... What- s - app >+ 1 = 3 = 8 = 5 = 4 = 3 = 7 = 1 = 1 = 5 = 8...

[@brkbtjunkie]

Except right now the conditions for runaway inflation are a perfect storm.

[@tomlxyz]

So far there's only reason to believe that hold back consumption and supply chain shortages could cause higher inflation in the short term but no real sign that it'll continue on.

[@benoutdoors]

Cathie wood doesn’t think so.

[@dontevntrip8627]

Good Luck out in the Streets!!

[@KLim13378]

oh remember 4 weeks ago it was hyper-inflation? how did that go?

[@mr.makedonija2627]

Elaborate please brother

[@blessedspear2642]

Going bad bruh

[@Bezzy3]

Michael Burry is my dad 👀

[@dacrowster]

Looks like is his watching a tennis game

[@pïnnédbycarmïnerosato]

Thanks for watching and commenting, for more guidance and investments......... What- s - app >+ 1 = 3 = 8 = 5 = 4 = 3 = 7 = 1 = 1 = 5 = 8...

[@saraf9081]

He is soo funny

[@timw4369]

Economists are like weathermen. They are rarely right but they keep trying

[@mackito539]

Very funny! 🤣🤣🤣

[@imawesome1822]

It’s all noise. And a way to get people to sellout of their shares

[@mihnic0504]

30 seconds in…. SUSCRIBE

[@qx4n9e1xp]

Calling out Minority mindset with the clickbaity INFLATIONN!! videos as of late.

[@RTSBone]

That haircut...

[@Duke_of_Prunes]

At his age, you're lucky to have ANY hair!

[@RTSBone]

@@Duke_of_Prunes The hair is fine, it’s the hairCUT 🤦‍♂️

[@thetruebluedeath]

That seems kind of sensationalist.

[@voidnebula4528]

Things tend to turn out differently than mere speculation.

[@pïnnédbycarmïnerosato]

Thanks for watching and commenting, for more guidance and investments......... What- s - app >+ 1 = 3 = 8 = 5 = 4 = 3 = 7 = 1 = 1 = 5 = 8...

[@JoaoSilva22222]

"Less than 1% owned stock in 1929" - BOOOM, Peter Lynch busts your leftist history teacher.

[@FlaschDJ]

I’ve lost all respect for Peter Lynch after listening to this BS. Somebody must have told him he was brilliant and he believed it. I think he’s a schmuck.

[@tommyharris5817]

He talks so fast you can barely understand him, plus he is not funny so don't understand why the audience is amused.

[@davidrf4413]

i'm not a native english speaker but everything he said was clear. maybe you are just dumb :\

[@mrsloth_8820]

@@davidrf4413 this is the correct answer

[@Duke_of_Prunes]

You must be from the South, too -- go to playback speed and hit 0.25x speed. 🤣

[@Nightowl7982]

Too fast?