Peter Zeihan Talks the Jones Act ... BETTER CALL SAL!

[@giffica]

Love pushback and healthy debate. This is what our society needs more of

[@dougowen9873]

Agreed, but the fact that this guy Zeihan does not even know when the great depression occurred or more importantly why the Jones Act was passed in 1920 tells me he is not speaking from a position of knowledge, end of debate at that moment.

[@giffica]

@@dougowen9873 Not to be that guy, but Zeihan isnt exactly wrong. Sal is correct, but Zeihans prolly refering to the depression of 1920 after WW1. Just playing devils advocate. Listen Zeihans not always correct but hes right sometimes. He is a generalist, so experts tend to disagree on the WHYS but his conclusions tend to be fairly accurate even if Zeihan misses some of the nuance of why. For example he ignores culture pretty insanely and sticks to the geo and politics. Culture commentarians, shipping experts, russia experts, china experts have all called him out but the GIST of his views is, in a sense correct. Whether Zeihan is correct on the Jones act is less of the issue, everyone has their own demons and boogeyman, but i think he is trying to identify something being wrong with American shipping. It might not be the jones act, but he's gotta be using some hyperbolic scapegoating when he talks about it I can't seriously believe he is that against it.

[@dougowen9873]

@@giffica Point taken, that is very possibly his take.

[@roderickcampbell2105]

I'm with SaL Loved the episode. Makes sense. The basic arithmetic and tax rates count.

[@jesdakosol1797]

I’m with Peter Z. The time change the laws should be adapted to the real time. After we try for a decade. If it doesn’t work. We can change to the old laws. Or to whatever work best. The one who can adapt will survive.

[@robertlevine2152]

Sal, I agree with your views. I do think you missed a few points. Every vessel doing business in Shreveport is already a Jones Act vessel. So, if the Jones Act were eliminated the towboats and barges could be built overseas, foreign crews could be used, foreign countries could own and operate the tugs and barges. I don't think destroying an American heritage industry would go over well. Mark Twain would be rolling over in his grave. There are two major locomotive manufacturers in the US, Electro Motive Diesel (EMD), and GE Locomotive. Siemens Locomotive, has recently started building passenger train locomotives in the US. I believe the major of the rail cars used in the US are built in the US. I earned my living working for oil companies doing maritime transportation business in the US. I believe that maritime transportation benefits from the existence of cabotage laws that require domestic fleets. I believe that the migration of vessel ownership, management & operations, and crewing from countries like the US. Great Britain, The Netherlands, Japan, Denmark, etc, weakens the core of maritime expertise. I fear that with the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) there will be a push for unmanned cargo ships to sail the season. It won't matter where the ships are built or where the owner operates from. That is until a ship catches fire, or runs aground, or is involved in a collision. And then, your friend will still blame the Jones Act. Bob

[@m1863m]

Have him on your show and debate him then, for god sake.

[@wgowshipping]

You think he would come? I would probably have to pay him.

[@RobDeHaven]

I really enjoy Better call Sal rants. If you are this passionate in the classroom as you are here, your students are getting a great education. I also learned a ton in these 21 minutes. Time well spent.

[@patriciatennery3021]

Boy , oh boy, do I ever agree with this.

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks Rob!

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks Patricia!

[@stephenrickstrew7237]

Time spent finding the truth is always time well spent..!

[@TheLawlbreaker]

I saw this and was wondering if you were going to post a rebuttal. Zeihan pumps out so much overly-generalized opinion in so many subjects, with the result being that he offers up a lot of bad takes that become debunk fodder.

[@tomegg7707]

Trucking has the same thing as the Jones act. A Canadian or Mexican truck can only deliver loads in the US or load here and take it across the boarder. Bush tried to undo that law and failed.

[@eherrmann01]

The sad part is that the majority of people there probably walked away of that talk believing him.

[@tacmason]

Good thing you have a specific overlapping focus Sal - as good a speaker as Peter is, we all need as many good points of view, and fact checking points of light as possible.

[@caaguilar82]

You just debunked Zeihan for me. I just came across him for the first time from his recent podcast with Joe Rogan. He was making some amazing claims on there about the impending demographic collapse of China and Russia that seemed a bit suspicious. From your rebuttal I gather that he can’t be trusted on any topic.

[@wgowshipping]

I dont know about any topic, but I do shipping.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

@@wgowshipping I don't know about shipping but I do know about war (and thus a very little bit about sealift, logistics, draught, tonnage) He's catastrophically wrong on military strategy. His Russian geography omits the Pripyet marshses and several north south rivers as wide as the saint lawrence though not as deep forests his knowledge of china is shallow. all in all his thesis holds true IF the premises are factually correct: but they aren't, so it collapses.

[@diontury7585]

The most important aspect of the Jones Act is NATIONAL SECURITY!!! We definitely don't need a Chinese shipping company going up and down our rivers, kils and ports...

[@chrisb4647]

If I'm not mistaken, the Jones Act also provides mariners some basic human rights in case of injury. Things we land lubbers take for granted.

[@rickpratt8789]

Chris B, I shipped out as a merchant sailor in the late sixties and early seventies and received medical care that was work oriented ( a hernia). Got it taken care of for free at a US Public Health Service hospital in Galveston by a Coast Guard doctor. They told me I was covered under "the Jones Act". Nuff said.

[@smokejaguarsix7757]

And thats the problem with this, I seriously wonder who he is speaking for with that anti-Jones Act bias. This is coming from someone who wants access to our waterways at taxpayer expense, I'm thinking its Denmark.

[@MrJcjet]

You have it already. You can go to any port from offshore. You can't move between ports. The primary issue is that the ship must be made in the USA and maintained in the USA, but the USA doesn't build ships. So the Jones Act ships are old, small, and inefficient. The largest shipping company is based out of denmark. And it's absolutely insane that it's illegal for a ship to go from Korea or Japan to Hawaii and then on to Seattle. To give a real world example: It is so expensive to move oil from Alaska by ship in a Jones Act compliant ship - it is literally cheaper by around $5/bbl to ship from Alaska to refineries in the Caribbean all the way around south america than it costs to ship to Seattle. When you start to see the real costs, it's far worse than you'd imagine. Even if we kept the requirement for American ownership and crews, but just dropped the American manufacturing requirement it would dramatically change the landscape. We don't build ships either way. Why not let shippers use foreign purchased ships?

[@alhollywood6486]

Hurr durr, foreigners

[@JEK]

Great BCS episode, Peter is out of his league on this subject matter. You never disappoint, Sal. ⚓

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks John!

[@yuglesstube]

He's limited to his Cato brief, I'd suggest.

[@stevematthews4489]

As a Zeihan fan, I did enjoy your reality check on his Jones Act schtick. I like Zeihan's big picture world view on how the world works, but I'm a little skeptical of his broad brush definitive proclamations when he starts getting into weeds. It's fun to have simple answers for everything but that's not necessarily how things actually work.

[@grizzz6884]

same here , i find is there to give us in the west hope , as we in the west , are the countrys , that ned the most imports

[@SteamCrane]

Word salad.

[@carlthor91]

Yes, Sal, also Peter insinuates it is legal for me as a non-citizen, no work visa, to interstate loads, with a truck? I don't think so, I can haul a load in, I can haul a load out, period. Peter also goes on to insinuate that foreign flagged airline can interstate freight, don't think so? I put a similar comment to this in the video, we are discussing. Sal, you are right, unfortunately Peter drank the Koolaid, that work for Americans is bad, foreign labor is good. Immigrants are good, my father was an immigrant from Sweden.

[@tomcook5813]

Zeihan is working the audience, suspenseful pauses….throwing numbers out in a way as to sound smart. He knows no one in the audience is going to remember a number he quotes and check on it.. The trash bag ponytail, the cheap suite, I bet he has sold a lot of cars to 55 year old grandmothers

[@Thomas-wn7cl]

Sal, I appreciate your pragmatic view on the Jones Act with all it's supporting history, facts, charts, and maps. Zeihan is an ideologue and will never let the facts disrupt his vision of the world.

[@veramae4098]

"... disrupt his vision ...." Nicely said.

[@alansnyder8448]

I would not call Peter Zeihan an ideologue. Instead, I think he covers a broad width of topics and cannot be an expert in everything he talks about. I consider him someone good for the 10,000-foot view on trends and then go to subject matter experts like Sal to correct what he misses. I think Peter often gets the broad trends correct but misses the details. His presentation style is intended to be engaging, which has the positive of keeping you listening for an hour, but the downside of acting certain on this we should (if being academically correct) not be certain about.

[@Thomas-wn7cl]

@@alansnyder8448 hi Alan, if he is not driven by facts and details, then he is shaped by certain ideas and concepts he has accepted that he uses to fill in the blank spaces. These are usually an ideology or a blend of ideologies, which I think is the case for Zeihan. I watched one of his long form videos before and thought his speech was very hit and miss.

[@Thomas-wn7cl]

@@veramae4098 thanks Vera

[@grizzz6884]

@@veramae4098 it is not peters vision , it is the people paying him , vision

[@QuizmasterLaw]

Being wrong on basic facts matters because they are the basis for policies. If you think the Jones Act is wrong because it was made in the great depression as some form of protectionism in reaction to a global economic crisis when in fact it was made at the height of prosperity then critiques of the Jones Act would be likely to be inapt because they would assume it was 1. protectionist 2. inappropriate in a booming economy. If one can't get the facts right then one cannot make proper policy prescriptions. If you don't get the basics right then ideas about the advanced stuff will be likely even more mistaken.

[@AllNighterHeider]

Well written, and love the name. The real pLandemic is the suppression of financial education to implement financial repression without objection.

[@LackofFaithify]

Zeihan always tailors his product to what his audience wants to hear with an emphasis towards demographics and certain business interests. And can you really trust someone that doesn't want to go to NOLA for drinks?

[@wgowshipping]

I would be in NOLA every Thursday night!

[@SteveSmith-mu2fy]

to be fair peter gets invited to speak at events and tailors his argument depending on his audience.

[@craineTV]

@@SteveSmith-mu2fy is that fair?

[@dougowen9873]

@@SteveSmith-mu2fy Hey Steve, next time Peter "tailors" his argument let hope he knows when the great depression occurred.

[@556MSL]

Thanks for making this informative and important rebuttal.

[@wgowshipping]

My pleasure!

[@squid0013]

He is 100% wrong about the red River. The reason is the Upper Baton Rouge bridge. Secondly the river is not easily navigable as the mississippi and the other rivers

[@bryanachee7133]

The bridge is the smaller obstacle. There is just no depth much above it.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

Your river is too shallow for ocean going vessels, but Peter Zeihan is even shallower.

[@gordybishop2375]

Beautiful exposure of BS. The smell was coming through my screen like a cattle boat on a breezy day.

[@SteamCrane]

Been in a few barns. Yeah.

[@andreimoutchkine5163]

Zeihan is well known for getting debunked by a mere few secs of googling.

[@bc-guy852]

Oh My - is it okay for Sal to have this much fun - and make a video at the same time?? Canadian here - commenting about a very 'USA-centric issue', the Act and both commentators here. But MY observation is that a guy named Peter, who goes off on some pretty extravagant tangents and comes up with his theories - has 'served up a fastball' after much massaging of the ball and staring down the batter. Professor Sal - at the plate - knocks dust off his spikes, plants himself - and then takes on that fat fastball served by Mr. Zeihan and crushes it out of the park. Sets a record for how far it lands in the parking lot I understand. But - - you know - just a Canadian's interpretation... You okay Professor? That looked fun - but draining!

[@wgowshipping]

It was fun...TOO MUCH FUN!

[@barneymm2204]

Peter's delivery of things as absolutes without support has always concerned me. I almost can't watch him as he sets off so many flags (like you are finding).

[@SteamCrane]

I'd omit the word "almost".

[@jamescole1786]

2/9/23; Hello from NewOrleans area. Sal, like you said, Red River is unable to accomodate blue water ships. Peter Zeaon was simply 'happy talking' on this subject. Locals in Shreveport had to be shocked at this 'no ships on (narrow, shallow) Red River comment. Great examination by you of crazy comments on speaker PZ. Carry on Sal, you are always factual.👍👍👍👏😊

[@SteamCrane]

Would have loved to see the audience reaction!

[@stephenrickstrew7237]

I’m glad I called Sal .. Peter Zeihan changes his tune frequently.. I think he does a very clever job of manipulating statistics and the truth to argue his point and he will do a 180 somewhere on down the river …and thanks for the story on the red river ..!

[@alansnyder8448]

I follow both you and Peter Zeihan. I saw the same video, and thought the same thing but didn't get hold of you. It seems to me that he specifically was talking about the "ships built in America" part of the Jones act. Sal, you have mentioned that the Jones Act does need to be reformed. I'd like to see you and Peter talk specifically about how it should be reformed. From what I've learned so far I would definitely update the need for American-built, and expand it to include ships from non-hostile nations, so (S. Korea ok, but China not). But I would keep the American crewed, and captained and flagged part.

[@rogerlafrance6355]

Interstate trade and international trade are two different things. For one thing, foreign transports, ours or others, can only enter or leave the US thru a Port of Entry and Customs.

[@JackHawkinswrites]

I find Zeihan to be very entertaining, but . . .

[@QuizmasterLaw]

he frightens me because ignorant people will listen and believe his glitzy schtick and then do stupid things with guns. I don't care when people do stupid things with money. When they do stupid things with guns 1) that's my job 2) they better be NOT on my team coz if they are I have to correct them. if his mistakes were wrecking the Russians or Chinese I would say nothing.

[@roderickcampbell2105]

@@QuizmasterLaw Hi Quiz. I agree. One can do stupid things with money. Not stupid things with guns.

[@Mondo762]

The mis-information coming from that guy is a joke. Watch out Sal, you may be arguing with a clown.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

I did the research: I don't anticipate a resurgence of piracy. You don't have to believe me but come back to this comment in a few years.

[@barbeonline351]

First, it is pronounced like ZION. And I appreciated this. Peter is prone to hyperbole. Thanks for getting more granular.

[@mattc.310]

Is the audience just being polite, or are they on board with the Jones Act being the one thing standing in their way to prosperity? He reminds me of a few presenters I've come across. They made for some very lively discussions at the bar. It's ok to have opposing opinions, but it's better to have a discussion of the merits of each.

[@b_lumenkraft]

Zeihan is an amazing storyteller. But that's all. He really is telling stories. The stuff he imagines. The problem is, he states that shit as facts. And this is bad.

[@Dbgt5551]

As a resident of Shreveport I would rank the Jones act very very low on our list of problems for the city

[@SteamCrane]

One of the biggest transportation problems the US faces is Precision Scheduled Railroading and 2+ mile long trains.

[@wgowshipping]

I agree. The whole situation with rail is an issue. Now airlines are trying to go down to one pilot, just like rail.

[@aconsideredmoment]

The real question is who is profiting off of this speaker? What is the agenda? He is in style and content using alternative facts to generate anger toward the Govt. What legislation is in play? Any ideas? Reminds me of Koch bros. funded activities. Thank you for countering his talk with facts.

[@poneill65]

It wouldn't be a fun talk for Peter because he's completely ignorant of any facts and he'd be exposed for the smooth-talkin con-artist he is. Therefore, never. gonna. happen.

[@Hayman1969]

Peter without any experience in shipping is an expert in shipping...... yes that is Peter in all things. 😂

[@QuizmasterLaw]

EXACTLY.

[@stefanratkiewicz]

Who the hell is Peter Lobbying for. Great rebuttal Sal.

[@Thomas-wn7cl]

Good question

[@davidwilson2394]

Seriously that is the worst tie I have ever seen. Sal you have better style. I would have walked out of the room when I saw the tie. Thanks for this video. 👍😃

[@markmoberg7999]

It is interesting since he constantly tells us that globalization is coming to an end and yet in shipping he is preaching the opposite here.

[@paulliebenberg3410]

Zeihan is obviously slanting his talk towards his audience; after all he wants them to feel his speaker's fee is justified. Sal; your knowledge of history blows Zeihan out of the water. Zeihan wins for having better hair though.

[@bc-guy852]

Man-bun... better?? okay...

[@anthonyroberts7987]

Sorry....I can't trust a man that wears slippers with a suit and tie. Thanks, Sal, for this. Seriously,,,,thank you for the thoughtful pushback

[@C0sm0thek1ng]

I liked Peter Zeihan and have listened to some of his books. I don't think I've ever heard him talk about the Jones Act, I only just found his KZbin Channel yesterday. I agree with you Sal, it almost seems like hes contradicting himself. In my uneducated opinion I think maybe we could tweak the Jones Act, but I think its a decent law to have, even though it doesn't really do much nowadays.

[@atsmyles]

Peter Zeihan's knowledge of shipping is about as shallow as the J Bennet Johnston Waterway. Thanks for the in-depth analysis.

[@wgowshipping]

🤣🤣🤣

[@bladewiper]

"In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king". Peter is the one eyed man talking to a group of blind people. You Sal, are fully sighted.

[@bc-guy852]

Nice one!

[@LouisHansell]

Zeihan abuses the facts and reason in order to exercise his sanctimony.

[@breft3416]

Thanks, Sal! I think the question isn't what Peter is saying, but why?

[@loucatozzi7656]

Peter Z is a perfect example of "jack of all trades and master of none". He has a very broad scope of information available to him and he can draw on it and present it in a very interesting and informative manner. He is very good at predicting broad trends in human activity but things get cloudy as he dives into subjects. If you compare his presentations against that of various subject-matter-experts he is found to be lacking in detailed understanding or appreciation of facts. That said, I love his presentations and books. I would not buy them but I'm happy to read them from the library or youtube for free. He is the epitome of "infotainment".

[@LackofFaithify]

No he's not. He was literally saying in 2010 that China would collapse within a matter of years. He was the top guy at a think tank named Stratfor for over a decade. You can quite easily go back and look at his predictions for well over a decade. Don't forget, some things start before we pay attention to them. Predicting in 2020 that Russia would go to war with Ukraine...it already had started that war in 2014, that's not a prediction.

[@loucatozzi7656]

@@LackofFaithify Im not trying to quibble but predicting China's demise and Russia's agressive expansions "in the next decade" is/was a fairly loose predictions. As things heated up in Russia and China descends into Covid and financial chaos he has tighten up his timelines accordingly. My comment about digging into details of his more sweeping predictions (electric vehicle adoption, wind/solar power production, etc) is that he is working from incomplete or inaccurate data and this is more apparant as he gets more specific about his predictions.

[@forestfan7974]

Suppose the Chinese Navy offered a good price for a half dozen US Navy aircraft carriers - would we accept that offer? Perhaps not! The Jones Act is about domestic security. You have all your domestic shipping to Hawaii and Puerto Rica or Alaska carried by foreign carriers. Then they decide for political reasons to double or triple their prices or withdraw or reduce the number of sailings. No US Jones Act, and we could be blackmailed.

[@krissywhiting916]

I learn so much when I watch this channel. Great 'fact checking'. I feel bad for the people listening to him telling untruths.

[@cmetzenberg]

Are you realizing zehan gets out of his depth very quickly but maintains his confidence throughout? Experts in many fields call him on his bs when he delves into the weeds, but it all sounds good to the average Joe

[@TheMitchyb61]

He’s doing what every politician does, they tell you a story bending the truth a little bit to paint a picture he wants the people he’s talking to see and believe! So he’s lying but not all the way so it’s ok!

[@steveamsp]

As an example of foreign ships going in to ports, Duluth Minnesota gets multiple ships coming in from/heading to Europe every year.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

because thanks to the locks Saint Lawrence is navigable to ocean going vessels. That's impossible on Mississippi. Too shallow, maybe silt and snags too

[@steveamsp]

@@QuizmasterLaw I completely understand why, but that just points out how absurd it is to complain about the Jones Act being the reason Shreveport doesn't get oceangoing shipping.

[@SteamCrane]

But these foreign ships are absolutely forbidden from moving any cargo from one US port to another. There is a large fleet of Canadian flagged lake freighters, but they also can't move cargo between 2 US ports. There is plenty of cross border trade, of stone, iron ore, coal, salt, etc, so it works out OK.

[@SteamCrane]

@@steveamsp I missed that point the first time through. Absolutely correct, and devastating to PZ.

[@SteamCrane]

Watched a couple of his videos in the past, didn't bother watching any more. Like Thomas Friedman, just random words. EDIT: I wrote the above before watching the video. Glad we're on the same page! PS - Omron makes good reasonably priced blood pressure monitors.

[@TheSubHunter1]

Happen to agree here with Sal and how other factors such as interstate rail pipeline decimating coastal shipping guess what happened in Europe too Road rail and pipelines tend to be much faster and point to point (road freight more door to door)

[@gerardjohnson2106]

Peter Zeihan sounds like a politician. He has all of the excuses with no facts or background. All he has to sell are "empty" ideas. Call Sal.

[@TheSubHunter1]

As for development of the transport in the USA there’s a lot more issues more to do with inefficiency in the sectors The USA ranks 14th most efficient in logistics when you look at the world bank LPI reports

[@andrewwoods8153]

Thanks Sal. Just unsubscribed from his channel. We have no room for lies. The future and challenges are too important for soap opera performers.

[@stevenreynolds8793]

Yes, healthy debate based on facts. Thanks Sal.

[@dauletkarakhanov742]

It will be great if all the expert debunk all Zeihan’s claims and destroy his reputation as he clearly is a shallow

[@doughamilton1756]

I've listened to Peter talk on other subjects, not I'm afraid of how smart this guy thinks he is.

[@kp6215]

This guy has an ego that has been evident for many years that I can't stand listening to him anymore. I trust Sal .

[@charlestuozzolo7283]

Gee Sal another comedy show. Loved it. Only question was is this guy from this planet or one in another universe. But great filling in of the facts by you. I listened intently.

[@captiannemo1587]

Didn’t know someone could present something so poorly.

[@ct8764]

I'm going to start a new KZbin channel called "What's Going On With 'What's Going On With Shipping"" Thanks Sal, loved the episode! Peter got me interested in finding out more about populations and geopolitics which is very interesting but I'm old enough to know to turn over some other rocks. Now I know about a quarter of what I think I know which is only a small fraction of what I need to know.

[@centurion1945]

I'm very skeptical of the foreign trains percentage he gives, maybe he's including total rolling stock (boxcar, refers, gondolas, etc) but for locomotives the Class 1 railroads are a mix of GE Lcocs (Now owned by Wabtec of Pittsburgh PA) and EMDs (Owned by Caterpillar) As for passenger trains, while foreign companies dominate this market for design, the factories are all based in the U.S. Amtrak for example buys a lot of trains from Siemens a German company, but the trains are all built in a factory in California. Kawasaki makes the NYC subway trains, but the factory is in Yonkers NY. In fact, in a vain similar to the Jones Act, the Federal Railroad Administration and AMTRAK are both bound to "Buy American" Contract clauses which require all US steel and US made end-products in order to qualify for contracts or grants.

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks for this. As I said, I knew a train person could answer this.

[@Luffchild]

Why not ask Peter to address your students followed by your rebuttal?

[@amariner5]

Excellent rebuttal. The Jones Act opponents aren't interested in facts. Short sea shipping doesn’t work for containers because of the labor costs of moving the container from mode to mode, off one water vessel to another, has to be lifted with a crane, landed on a truck, moved to the yard, lifted off the truck, lifted off the truck, then lifted on to another truck, rolled to the next vessel, loaded and lashed. As opposed to just being trucked from point to point. If you were paying to move a container from point to point, road might be best. However for bulk cargoes barges might be efficient. Skip the tie, if it's that loud.

[@SteamCrane]

From a physics standpoint, rail is by far the best mode for long distance transport. Unfortunately, this advantage is lost due to railroad management stupidity.

[@trashpanda9433]

I found your channel through the first better call Sal. Stayed for the history and current history

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks Trash!

[@williamconroy5875]

HOLD UP SAL... are you saying we can't trust guys with manbuns now?

[@wgowshipping]

I am just saying I don't have one.

[@williamconroy5875]

@@wgowshipping I actually posted that before the end of the video where you made the comment! Haha

[@Thomas-wn7cl]

Lol

[@rickpratt8789]

That's a boy bun!

[@PeoplePressHarder]

I enjoyed today’s episode 😂lol

[@FRRitter]

Interesting review; with no Jones Act would Shreveport be a viable sea port? About the same chance as Wichita has or Des Moines. Normally we enjoy both you Sal...and Peter, in this exchange Peter introduces the Jones Act as cause of all ills for Shreveport... while you wrap yourself in the 120yr old protectionist act maybe a bit too much. Any answers for America's many Shreveports?

[@MichaelRoss-omtaretutare]

3D printing is an incredibly slow, and expensive method of manufacture. It cannot compete with at scale manufacturing. It is super nice for prototyping and for customization of products. The 3D printing system manufacturers have done a great job of promotion, but if you do the numbers, the time it takes to produce parts is excruciating. I started hiring 3D printing in the mid nineties - for prototyping electro-mechanical designs; and 3DP has grown only slowly since then - because it is too slow/expensive. Certain products where traditional manufacturing is an impediment like rocket engines, yes there is a case for it. You can make sh!tty wooden furniture with automation. However, die cut, continuously extruded, stamped and formed, and molded products that are in every drawer, and on every shelf are not going to be printed. I designed a mold unloader for a Canon printer part (fits on the palm of a child's hand) that produces a finished part, stacked in trays for shipping at a rate of 1 per second 24/7 for weeks. It was harder to keep the plastic material in the hopper, and people on hand to stack the boxed parts, than to mold them at pace. That is a million parts ever 12 days, and on, and on, and on. One 3D part of the same design takes more than an hour, not counting any finish work, and the quality, fit and finish, of that part is crap compared to the molded part. I have a good friend who made a living for years automating printed, folded, and glued boxes at pace. How you going to do that with a 3D printer? 3D printing has been well marketed, and has drawn in venture capital in waves since 1995. But, it is limited in application, nothing like the Star Trek, formed in thin air fairy tale. Give this more thought, run the numbers. It is not going to displace boxing and shipping at scale, in any way. BTW, I really appreciate some push back to counter Peter Z and other geopol demographers. They are somewhat fast and loose, and are hard to fact check. Peter has done a great service by revealing global demographics to a wider audience. Thanks for taking the time to pod-criticize him.

[@viksaini]

Dates do matter because history matters. Thank you Sal!

[@donwilsonjr.5387]

You blew him out of the shallow water.

[@FATMAN_tactical]

Thanks for covering one of his lapse in knowledge, maybe if he is wise he will listen.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

it's far from the only one but as a Russia expert (US Gov sent me to UA in 2014 I speak Russian fluently was in the military for several years): his strategic evaluations of military interactions are catastrophically wrong.

[@effexon]

I have gut feeling peter is talking and trying to educate bunch of people with even less understanding of things.... so things may not be totally bad.... though this can backfire that people just want to listen to peter talking anything(showman charisma), and forget actual content

[@FATMAN_tactical]

@@QuizmasterLaw Agreed, just a military enthusiast and i can tell his evaluations of military actions are over simplified and based off assumptions from Risk and WWI WWII.

[@SteamCrane]

@@effexon Audience left the talk dumber than when they came in.

[@BodyByBenSLC]

Jones act requires that ships that travel in nations interior be operated and mostly owned by Americans which is a good thing. Do you want Chinese owned and operated ships in going up and down America's heartland? Probably not a smart idea.

[@George7Baldwin]

I'm an avid Peter listener, and I've often wondered his accuracy. Zz-iiiii- Han (obviously you have not watch his 10m youtubes) is renowned for speaking out to politics of foreign countries. And their economic futures. And listening to Go Better Call Sal, also my favorite. Seam when Peter gets inner economic with US it does not work out.

[@kp6215]

He likes to lie about many things 😜 those I watched a couple of his lectures then realized he likes to feel important. Confidence on the facts he doesn't doesn't talk about.

[@topiasr628]

Details sheemtails... Who need detailed analysis when people get their news from the headlines they see as they scroll. The problem is we haven't had a war or incident to remind people what powerlessness feels like.

[@anthonyroberts7987]

I'm glad I can call Sal!

[@wgowshipping]

Thanks Anthony!

[@jeremiah1059]

Why would you want to look like Peter? What's wrong with just being yourself?

[@kp6215]

He's ignorant Sal thus you must educate this man because we know big ships up rivers.

[@andrewrivera4029]

Always love to hear Zeihan get blasted for talking about things he knows nothing about.

[@dpg227]

I've read all Peter Zeihan's books and seen most of his presentations on KZbin. He has an interesting perspective, but I've always wondered if he was wrong about some of it. It was good to get some much needed counterpoint from an expert in shipping. In Zeihan's world, geography is destiny, and the U.S.'s destiny revolves around it having more miles of navigable waterway than the rest of the world combined, and the fact that shipping things by water costs only about one twelfth what it costs of shipping things by land. I would love to hear Sal and Peter discuss how shipping could be improved in order to fully exploit our natural advantages.

[@SteamCrane]

Water is much cheaper if you're not in a hurry, meaning that your cargo is unavailable to you for many days, otherwise rail or truck wins.

[@crazylocha2515]

Around 30 cents per mile for container to go by rail, not including the union to load/unload the container from either truck or rail car (variable union cost by regional contract). $1.25 per mile (broker fees come out of that) and up by truck. 5 days cross country by rail, and 3 days north to south, including time to put on trailer for endpoint delivery including another boat/ship elsewhere in the port. 2 days to drive across, 18hrs north to south. Pick how fast you want to get that product in the container. Aaaaand how long to ship/barge it? That's why. Which river was it going from NYC to Los Angeles again?

[@murdelabop]

Trains: The United States has one of the largest railroad rolling stock manufacturing industries in the world, with the exception of passenger rolling stock. Maritime coastal trade wasn't destroyed by the Jones Act, it was destroyed by railroads being able to move freight more quickly and less expensively than ships, especially in the interior. And your observation that in the early 20th century the American population was heavily concentrated in the Northeast Corridor is spot on.

[@murdelabop]

Oh, I suppose I should mention that among the reasons that American railroad rolling stock manufacturing is as strong as it is is because American laws covering construction and certification of locomotives and cars is different from most of the rest of the world, so corporations that want to sell rolling stock into the American market have to build it specially for the American market, and they usually have incentives for building it over here, which is why Alstom, Siemens, Hyundai, Mitsubishi, and even China Railroad Rolling-Stock Company all manufacturer equipment in the United States. I suppose you could say it's the railroad equivalent of the Jones Act, but in an indirect way. And "Conservatives" will fight you about allowing "unsafe foreign equipment" on American rails, especially when it comes to modern, lightweight passenger trains.

[@davidpriestley1650]

@@murdelabop You'd be lucky to get a modern, passenger train running on US rails as the rail companies have been increasing the length of the cargo trains to the point where they can't be completely contained within the passing loop/sidings on single track routes - so the passenger trains are at the mercy of the extra long cargo trains. Plus the track infrastructure isn't the best compared with modern European networks, so unable to run at upto 200mph

[@murdelabop]

@@davidpriestley1650 Yup. The American railroad companies are literally choking on their own success. They've refused to invest in upgrading their own infrastructure, and they've refused to invest in equipment operators, and they have invested heavily in lobbyists, so that now they're having trouble moving their own trains over inadequate infrastructure, let alone high speed passenger trains. It's maddening to watch.

[@jeffgray2954]

Send him the video

[@cdrderfyt]

Thank you for providing context to what he puts out

[@markearnest6534]

Thanks Sal, I am a PZ fan, at least of his books. His broad brush delivery on geo-political issues is entertaining, but it is equally entertaining to have someone identify, and document, were his brush went outside the lines.

[@robg9236]

The Jones act was not passed during "the height of economic prosperity". There Wass a postwar recession in 1919 and a relatively (compared to 10 years later) depression in 1920-21.

[@wgowshipping]

Yes, there was a deflationary recession/depression in 1919 and then 1920 due to post WWI policies, but the US quickly recovered from it and experienced economic growth in the 20s due to its new creditor status. Zeihan specifically stated the Great Depression.

[@shoominati23]

Put a dollar in my top pocket, I can be your legal council!

[@benjaminzabriskie5729]

Sal, you’re missing the point. If it weren’t for the jones act - the rivers would have been dredged so that ocean going ships would be pulling into Shreveport. He-he-he

[@wgowshipping]

Stupid me!!!

[@Anthrofuturism]

Gold. Thanks. Been having to push back on Zeihan regarding some of his nuclear content.

[@portalminer8813]

Thanks for another perspective. Keep it up.

[@geckoman1011]

I’ve never been impressed with PZ. I’m generally sympathetic with some of the things he has to say in a very general sense, but anything of real consequence I’ve never really agreed with him.

[@geckoman1011]

I want to add that Sal did a great job at breaking this down. Thanks for educating me on the topic.

[@kp6215]

This guy is a joke Sal please don't bust a gut.

[@Hellfr4g]

the piont is: the cheapest way to get goods from one place to another is shipping over water (if available) excluding pipelines all the goods between san francisco and LA have to go by rail and road, so beeing able to ship goods between those metropolis cities would lessen the strain on all the onshore infrastructure only because u subsidize the hell out of land transport doesn´t mean he hasn´t got a point there

[@dpg227]

Is it possible to boost the U.S. economy and reduce pollution by reforming both the Jones Act and the subsidies to land freight transport?