Pilot Blog | Update on Crash of Jeju B737 at Muan | Crew was in a Rush | Long Landing | Why no Gear?

[@sagittarius_]

No, Denys, you are NOT "just a guy with a microphone" - you and Juan on Blancolirio are now the top class analyzers of air accidents bcs you are experienced specialists of these airplanes! I am very very impressed.👏👏👏

[@JuiceyJuiceMC]

♐️♐️♐️❤

[@richardc020]

Amen, the trust and respect have been duly earned over years of our watching and learning.

[@jameso1447]

Mentor Pilot is pretty awesome, too.

[@JosephOlson-ld2td]

Juan said engine #2 supplies air to cockpit, possible filled with smoke ?

[@jameso1447]

@@JosephOlson-ld2td Air is taken in at intake not exhaust. There wasn't any smoke outside before landing.

[@loglogg]

The mainstream Korean media always floods reports with emotional coverage instead of providing rational analyses of accidents, and I'm tired of it. It's sad that, even for accidents that happen in Korea, I have to search KZbin in English to find videos that follow a proper reasoning process to uncover the exact cause.

[@markotrieste]

It's the media, man... TV is useless to get proper information on anything.

[@shadowshow701]

Our media do the same thing. Here in Australia they’re interviewing random passengers in the airport asking them if ‘all these accidents’ make them nervous of flying. WTF? Everything is so dumbed down now by the media as though we are all too stupid to expect a proper analysis like the one given here

[@TheUrantia001]

its the hive mind, ..no emotional intelligence..they rule via primal instinct.like a child would spit the dummy..

[@MrFredericandre]

Sadly it's not just Korean media, it's like this everywhere.

[@Siddhartha-x3w]

Asians

[@allanw7247]

This is the first time finding you Denys when trying to find answers for this tragedy. Your technical analysis is god tier and I instantly subscribed. Thank you for providing some disclosure.

[@retrovideoquest]

Love how Blancolirio (James Browne) and you recommend each other's channels. Both are indeed the best reference for aviation accidents in KZbin.

[@cageordie]

Juanne Brown. James Brown was a singer.

[@GoSolarPlz]

@@cageordieJuan

[@janisaksson5966]

Dont forget the Mentor Pilot who will detail this accident when the official report is published

[@LongdownConker]

Mentor pilot makes excellent videos about aviation accidents. I highly recommended checking out his channel too, especially if you like programmes like air crash investigation. However he is unlikely to release a video until official reports are out as he likes to be sure the information is as accurate as possible.

[@Quotenwagnerianer]

One typo after the other. First Juanne instead of Juan and then "Mentor Pilot" instead of "Mentour Pilot".

[@leokimvideo]

I'm pretty sure the biggest problem going on was panic in the cockpit. In such a rush we can all assume the checklists were thrown out the window

[@iitzfizz]

That's what I'm thinking. From issue to touchdown 5 minutes, that's not a lot of time to run any of those checklists so it's possible they totally forgot to lower the gear if they had a high work load and that mixed with the structure at the end of the runway was a recipe for disaster. It's hard to think why they would act this way though since these checklists are hammered into pilots and are one of the things that make flying so safe. Also, I hope you've had a funnel web free Xmas 😊

[@schrodingerscat1863]

This is why pilots are trained to follow procedures and fly the plane rather than panic, it should be automatic as everything is a split second decision.

[@MR-xc3sw]

Agreed. They panicked and forgot what to do.

[@kiraasuka9943]

I think but I’m not pretty sure. I want more data before jumping to conclusions this fast.

[@peixinho1973]

@@leokimvideo what if there was a technical issue with the plane? Again, Boeing? It would be fatal for Boeing. kzbin.infoUgkxR2fNrWrwsGoQ-EuwkVR7haLHcqrqVQBF?si=ZIMMqDE7Yda9HiOv

[@bc-guy852]

One of your best episodes ever Denys. Your personal opinions are VERY valued, to me. I see there is already a Part 2 to this series. I'll be heading there next. Excellent job.

[@Jessman5]

I literally trust your words way more than any of those "experts" on national media in germany. Thank you for your insights and explanations!

[@vaderbase]

Lü gen pres se!

[@RobertRobert-d2r]

yes, those ''experts'' are nothing like experts. I have never heard such misinformation and crazy hypothesis as the mainstream media has broadcast via these idiots.

[@blueyonder1233]

I like this "guy with a microphone". What he says makes a lot of sense.

[@PilotBlogDenys]

Many thanks!

[@daveamies5031]

Yeah he a kinda no BS kinda guy, I like him too 👍

[@tsuna111]

coz he is a pilot

[@shadowmod3]

@@PilotBlogDenys Google search "boeing-asks-suppliers-chinese-titanium-records-check-forgeries-widens" for the string of recent Boeing fatal mishaps.

[@Digitalgems9000]

@@tsuna111 /r/whooosh

[@wokedonkey]

This analysis is really excellent. My new favourite channel

[@yourbittertruth]

I like your phrase, birds are birds, we started flying after them. Thats uncontested fact. 😁

[@JimNortonsAlcoholism]

That was strangely philosophical.

[@T.E.S.S.]

lmaooo

[@yogyal292]

I mean…

[@starmaker23871]

7:56 Korean here. The aircraft made its return to incheon due to an urgent medical situation onboard. I could confirm it on a online press called aviationsourcenews. I believe that the return had nothing to do with the crash. It is very sad to see my country go through so much things at once. Thank you for giving us an objective view of the crash, which many medias are failing to do so.

[@bungfai2348]

A medical emergency does not justify an emergency squawk.

[@jmbaug1229]

Why was there a reinforced concrete wall at the end of the airport runway? The wall killed everyone inside that aircraft 😔

[@starmaker23871]

@@bungfai2348 It quite does; squawk 7700 doesn't just mean that the aircraft is falling out of the sky. General emergencies such as medical issues can be a reason of squawking 7700.

[@starmaker23871]

@@jmbaug1229 As Muan intl' airprt is located mear the sea, it is quite susceptible to typhoons that strike korea annually. Supposedly the wall was there to protect the runway form supposed storms. The footage was deeply unsettling... aircraft crashed into the concrete and just disintegrated. But even though there are dangers of typhoons, as far as I know, korean aviation law prohibits such dangerous facilities to be made in runways. (rough translation by me) '공항·비행장시설 및 이착륙장 설치기준' 국토교통부고시 제2022-350호 제1장 제25조 National rules for building airports chapter 1 rule 25 6항 '항행에 요구되는 장비나 시설을 제외한 물체로서 항공기에 위험을 줄 우려가 있는 개방구역내의 물체는 장애물로 간주하여 가능한 한 제거하여야 한다.' case 6 : Any objects other than those directly needed for flight should be removed from the open airfield 7항 '제6항에서 규정한 항행에 사용되는 장비 및 시설은 항공기에 대한 위험을 최소화할 수 있도록 부러지기 쉬운 재질로 하며 최소 중량 및 높이로 위치를 선정하여 설치하여야 한다.' case 7 : objects needed for flight should be made with the least strong material possible to reduce dager to aircraft That 5m high reinforced concrete does not exactly follow these rules. After more investigation is done, there will surely be a explanation regarding the wall, I believe.

[@mamorusawano2787]

He is talking about the possibility of this airlne lying. This incident too will be thoroughly investigated.

[@Gemmalady]

Yours was the first channel reporting on this that discussed the concrete wall that the antenna array was anchored to; the possibility that the wrong engine was shut off; and other factors. Thank you for your calm discussion on this tragic event. Happy New Year to you and yours.

[@pphysics90]

Korean-Canadian here. Thanks for the updates on the bizarre and terrible accident. The developing narratives here in Korea are: 1. The focus on the robust, dirt-covered reinforced concrete base for the localizer is now emerging in public media, only after international experts like you brought up the subject. The bulk of the blame being presented is the bird strike or the landing gear failure of B737-800, citing recent emergency landings of KL1204 and AC2259. 2. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Land & Transportation was defensive about the barrier for the localizer, citing that there are identical structures in other minor airports in Korea and that "no regulations exist" about them. I would like to see all such robust establishments replaced as soon as possible. 3. Some are blaming the pilots for landing in the reverse direction, unnecessarily risking the crash into the barrier. But I think this is absurd, since runways are supposed to enable landing in either direction...? And the pilots could not have predicted that the barrier was made of reinforced concrete, hidden beneath the dirt. Very tragic. 4. There is a political controversy surrounding the naming of the accident: "Jeju Airline disaster" or "Muan Airport disaster". The public media is mostly citing it as Jeju Airline disaster, out of fear of public stigma on the location and the infrastructure of the airport. The local population has historically supported (over 80%) the opposition party rooted in the 1980 Democratic Movement in Gwangju that managed to impeach the president and his acting president over a failed emergency martial law in early December, but the political turmoil in Korea is far from over.

[@VanillaMacaron551]

Thank you for all this info.

[@FloridaIndependent]

2 crew members getting out of the plane says a lot. The crew team panicked instead of helping the pilots. That also explains why the lowering of gear manually was not performed. Training and behavioral build up of many airline crew are misplaced. They are focused on courtesy and appearance, too little in rescue and disaster management, unlike the firemen who have been honed to have hero instincts.

[@southseasflying]

ICAO regulations govern the placement of obstacles, and the berm for the localizer antenna met the 90m (required) and almost met the 240m (recommended) placement requirements set forth by ICAO Document 9157.

[@spaulagain]

1. Ya, just because there are others in Korea doesn't make it ok. There's a reason the international standard is frangible structures.

[@willymobile]

@@FloridaIndependent Wtf are you talking about? The other crew were flight attendants, not pilots. Stop making stuff up.

[@briant7265]

I truly appreciate that you provide insight and knowledge without pretending to *know* what happened.

[@linanicolia1363]

wise man.

[@orbitaljellyfish808]

Avoiding premature conclusion is always valuable 👏👏

[@coreyworthingtonii9230]

I saw a story on one of my country’s (Australia) mainstream news networks which started with “aviation experts believe…” and as soon as I heard that, I tuned out. Mainstream media just can not compete with this sort of quality, in depth analysis from people who have actual experience with these aircraft and can do a deep dive over several minutes.

[@lizxu322]

It's definitely dumbed down for the masses

[@jradicals87]

Haha, it's almost guaranteed they drag out Geoffrey Thomas for every aviation news story for some reason.

[@hb1338]

The aviation "experts" that MSM consult are normally journalists, not trained pilots. Pilots would probably decline the opportunity to comment. There was one British "expert" on Sky News, the editor of an aviation journal, who was absolutely clueless and wasn't even familiar with standard landing procedures.

[@hb1338]

@@jradicals87 He edits a well known aviation journal - he's a mate of theirs. He is also almost completely clueless.

[@hb1338]

@@OlsenTheWonderDog The problem is that the "experts" they wheel out aren't expert.

[@htewing]

As soon as I saw blancolirio point out that the left reverser didn't deploy, my immediate thought was that they shut down the wrong engine. Especially since it seems like they rushed to get on the ground. With the information we have now I think it's the most reasonable hypothesis (Also, I just found your channel via his from the Azerbaijani crash, coincidentally!)

[@PilotBlogDenys]

Many thanks for following!

[@steveh5307]

The right TR didn't deploy either. If the TR was working, the plane wouldn't have kept skidding straight like it did. Asymmetric thrust would yaw the plane and the plane would've veered off to the right and off the runway. TR wasn't working. The cowling just popped open upon contacting the ground.

[@theflyingfrog]

@@htewing me too!

[@Lightning-bol]

If the engine failure caused a engine part to cut the hydraulic line they would lose all pressure explaining no flaps and no air brakes and they would opt for a belly landing knowing they would stop faster than no brakes and might have even thought that dirt embankment would help slow them why would anyone think it would be loaded with 2 foot thick concrete

[@gflight295]

But you hear the engines on.

[@chipbug]

The plane looks like it was flyable. Why they decided not to circle around a bit longer to assess the situation first would be the key to understand about this crash.

[@Suicune-oz4ou]

I'm just an uneducated noob but my first thought was that the only thing that scares pilots so much that they feel like they need to get on the ground regardless of the risk is fire. Fire is the scariest thing on ships and on aircraft. In most emergency situations in flight it is better to stay in the air and troubleshoot until they have assessed the situation and can plan accordingly, but fire can rip through a plane in minutes. If they thought there might be a fire (maybe becayse of smoke coming in through the aircon from the impacted engine?) I would understand them panicking and just being desperate to get on the ground. That's the only thing I can think if that makes sense for experienced pilots to skip checklists and not discard as much fuel as possible before attempting a belly landing in such a strange configuration.

[@solandri69]

If they shut down the good engine or both engines were damaged by birds, the remaining engine may not have produced enough thrust to maintain level flight. The plane would've been constantly losing altitude, putting them into a rush to get it onto the ground.

[@MarcoTernavasio-pv3ec]

Not right, the plane is able to fly with one engine, take off too.

[@bagelbomb1887]

​@@MarcoTernavasio-pv3ec but not if they shut down the wrong engine leaving only one badly damaged engine that cannot maintain enough thrust to stay airborne and it is easy to see why losing altitude could cause panic

[@Quotenwagnerianer]

@@bagelbomb1887 Can we stop with the speculation and wait until the final report is out?

[@thekennethofoz3594]

I appreciate your expert opinion, and your warning that we have to wait for the official findings before making judgment.

[@The_1_Assassin]

I think they must have shut down the wrong engine after the bird strike. Because the thrust reverser didn't deploy on #1 engine, but it did on #2, the one that had the compressor stall. And when possibly the right engine malfunctioned or started producing less thrust, they felt there was no choice but to land as soon as possible, even with no flaps or gear. Or they could have simply forgotten to extend them as there was no time to perform checklists and they might have thought the airplane was configured as they'd already done it before they decided to go around. My heart goes out to all who lost their lives and their loved ones.

[@PilotBlogDenys]

I mentioned that

[@ErynnWilson]

The more times I watch the landing I'm not so sure the thrust reverser on #2 engine was deployed. It looks to me like the engine cowling popped open when it contacted the runway????

[@g_pazzini]

that’s possible. even pilot could mistakenly pull the feather lever for flaps on atr yeti accident a while ago

[@mcmuffin-z5v]

@@g_pazziniyea hand shivers 😢

[@shaggydoggs]

@@PilotBlogDenys it must have been the Russians, or Trump

[@Vampire.Vegan.]

Excellent analysis. Both yourself and Blancolirio are the best sources of information for incidents like this

[@geofo60]

Thanks so much Denys for the comprehensive discussion regarding this tragic event. Also for recommending Juan's channel. My knowledge of aircraft is minimal to say the least ( I'm a car guy/ petrol head) but I have learned a lot after watching both yourself and Juan. Respect from the UK.

[@michel9372]

This looks unfortunately like a classic alignment of holes in slices of Swiss cheese. The plane was about to land when it hit a flock of birds (hole 1). The pilot had a split second to decide if he should proceed with landing or go-around to address problems and try again. He cautiously elected to go-around (hole 2). That led to the retraction of the landing gear (hole 3). There was probably a sense of urgency caused by alarms signalling a serious problem with the right engine (hole 4). That could explain why they stopped the wrong engine (hole 5). With not enough thrust to go-around, the pilot had to land the plane immediately (hole 6) with no time to lower the landing gear (hole 7). Without thrust the plane became a glider and was affected by vortices causing a ground effect which would make it glide too far on the landing strip (hole 8). The spoilers were likely armed but didn't open because the landing gear wasn't lowered (hole 9). The left engine having been stopped, there was no thrust reverser on that side (hole 10). Combining the gliding, the absence of landing gear, breaks, spoilers and thrust reverser on one engine, it was clear the plane would overshoot at high speed like a bar of soap on a wet surface (hole 11). Finally that mound built over a reinforced concrete wall stopped the plane (hole 12), killing nearly everyone on board. It wasn't their lucky day.

[@comalab2387]

nothing aligns in the swiss cheese model. the location and number of holes is RANDOM. they either are aligned or not. if a safety layer is compromised the figurative slice is removed which increases the probability that a trajectory now finds a way thru the remaining slices.

[@joso5554]

In that situation, there’s no immediate hurry to stop the engine, except to shut off that annoying alarm. One should think twice and check twice before shutting down the wrong engine…

[@davidf6326]

I don't believe that's how the Swiss cheese model is meant to be interpreted. The 'holes' refer to errors and shortfalls in judgement, regulations, maintenance etc, not to the external circumstances such as weather, bird strikes and the like. In other words, it relates to shortfalls in the elements that can (and should) be controlled, not the contributions of those that can't.

[@tommaguzzi1723]

​@@comalab2387it's how Mentour Pilot describes these situations. No doubt he will be talking about this very soon

[@directreply350]

This analysis is very good and I think the report will show a similar pattern

[@steeloisgombo]

As a Korean, this accident is truly tragic. It is truly regrettable that the government took the measure of pouring reinforced concrete under the localizer to save on the cost of localizer maintenance due to typhoons. It is a national disgrace to have taken such a dangerous measure at Muan Airport to save a few pennies.

[@FeelnLikeIDoEveryDay]

This is what kills me. The stink of corruption. All I see is a skilled individual doing their level headed best in a bad situation and just running headlong into human incompetence at the highest levels hard at work again. I’m so sorry 😢

[@nrakma]

There was a concrete block wall just beyond the struck lighting mound. So how close is too close for a barrier at the end of a runway? 10 meters, 100 meters, 1,000 meters, 10,000 meters, 100,000 meters or more?

[@nrakma]

It may be that the skilled individual not skilled in flying.

[@gottagowork]

Oh, so that's the reasoning for it being there in the first place? Hindsight is 20/20, and always will be. Chernobyl didn't have a containment building (among other design issues), "because it's cheaper". Still, it looks like several holes of the Swiss cheese have lined up to cause this, not just a single factor (rarely is). At the speed they had, I'm not convinced the wall *not* being there would have mattered. They would have gone well beyond the airport perimeter, and likely exploded, no matter what.

[@tonybolstad9514]

​ @nrakma that perimeter wall looks to be made of cinder block construction. The aircraft would most likely have shattered that without the fuselage breaking apart. The construction of the ILS antenna "wall" is very much against accepted safe aviation construction practice

[@MichaelBuck]

Perspective from a 737 Captain: Only frangible structures allowed in RESA area. Concrete is not frangible. ILS masts are frangible by design. The design here was more like a car crash test concrete wall. Insane design! Besides the airport design flaw, I see no reason why PIC did (what appears to be), a flaps/gear-up landing. The 737 can manually deploy the gear, and the FO can even do it while siting (just releasing his shoulder harnesses). In the event of manual reversion (both hydraulic systems INOP), you can also lower your flaps with an electric motor (takes longer, but works). But I see the engine reverser #2 activated (the engine which had the surge from a supposed bird strike), meaning that they couldn't have a manual reversion (well, they would deploy, just REALLY SLOW, and you can see them fully open), maybe just the loss of system A, which will inhibit the ground spoilers, the landing gear and some other items (Engine #1 is not visible). But again, you can still lower those manually, and not cripple the plane. Either the “bird strike” made a blade lose and crippled the plane (which has happened before), or lack or training. Anyways, all just is assumption on observation and a final report would definitely enlighten us upon the crew’s decision and reinforce CRM and TEM. My prayers to all the families in these hard times. Some other outstanding questions remain. If th PIC was alert enough to the issues at hand why did he do a GO AROUND procedure on the first attempt to land? Meaning, he obviously was aware of a problem and rather than just land the first time wanted a little more time to SWITCH to runway 19 which is the opposite direction of runway 1 he was initially cleared for. Why was this PIC apparently in a hurry to land and NOT GO THROUGH THE CHECKLISTS? He had plenty of fuel and TIME to go around for at least an hour or two. This would have allowed him to prepare for the landing, possibly chose to do a WATER LANDING after the rescue crews were deployed such as boats and helicopters and frog men. The WEATHER was perfect, so excellent conditions for a water landing. Some speculate that the SMOKE from the initial bird strike was able to be sucked into the vent under the right wing that feeds the CABIN. The left side vent under the left wing feeds the CREW Cockpit and is separate so the PIC would not have known about the smoke other than from the flight attendants reporting smoke in the cabin. Its very possible that the CABIN passengers and Flight attendants panicked and perceived incorrectly there was a fire in the cabin. This then was communicated to the PIC via the flight attendants. Only a FIRE in the cabin could necessitate the PIC to IGNORE all flight procedures to get the plane down ASAP so emergency ground crew could get to the plane and put out the fire. Anything else means you CONTINUE TO AVIATE and fly the plane while going through all appropriate checklists and communicating with ATC and ground emergency personal on the best solution to get the plane down SAFELY without any harm to your passengers or crew.

[@hb1338]

There are credible reports that the position of the concrete structure was in compliance with ICAO regulations.

[@jamiteichroeb921]

I like your thoughts on this accident. Possible fragmentation of turbine blades. Something countermanded the PIC’s decision to go round. Waiting for official results. I’m not the patient girl.

[@jamiteichroeb921]

@@hb1338unfortunately, the structure insured a severe death toll. I probly watched the same reports as you did.

[@Antoinemalone]

Love your videos man. I have flying anxiety and this is one of my worst fears but love seeing these educational videos about crashes.

[@sumiland6445]

I find extreme calm on airplanes, trusting God, Who made all the laws of physics, completely in His Hands.

[@SiegeSniper]

Very Sad , Sympathy and condolences to families from Australia 🇦🇺

[@linanicolia1363]

Condoleances for all the families, wherever they come from . In death, we are all united. No more separations of any kind......Total equality.

[@thomasgrimm1664]

Thank you very much for your analysis! This so much more helpful than anything I have heard on mainstream news.

[@KathrynsWorldWildfireTracking]

@Pilot Blog - you are my new favorite analyzer. Also; I have information for you about the "wall." A Korean Local came into the Sun (news) KZbin channel that covered the wreckage / recovery live all day. He said in the chat; the reason the localizers were on such a robust structure - was storms. Apparently, a typhoon damaged them before, and they wanted them to withstand the next typhoon. I don't know if this is true, but he seemed a very earnest person, helping with Korean translations in chat. Thank you for your calm, thoughtful, and intelligent coverage. You and Juan Brown (Blancholiro) are blessings in a sea of chaos.

[@CRASH.CORNER]

Wow, that’s an interesting detail about the typhoon damage and the reinforced structure. It’s incredible how local knowledge and thoughtful analysis, like yours and Denys’, bring so much clarity to these situations. Truly a blessing in chaotic times. 🙌

[@andersgrassman6583]

Yeah, I could imagine someone getting the task to "fasten the stuff really good", and the person tasked not really an airport planning and building specialist, so perhaps just doing what would make sense in some more ordinary civilian setting. And noone thought about checking the installation from a safety point of view - exept they should withstand strong winds. So the matter perhaps ended up "in between chais" / "fell into the cracks on the floor"?

[@DanRyan-v5y]

​@@andersgrassman6583 there is also the fact that apparently these are all shared with the military as well, so they will override any civil safety concerns

[@brodriguez11000]

@@andersgrassman6583 Not a specialist, but usually stuff like this is ran through more than one person.

[@fewwiggle]

Are there a lot of planes landing during typhoons . . . . 🙁

[@Keatwonobe]

You're sharp as ten tacks, man. Good breakdown with great questions.

[@wmt3115]

Outstanding, thorough explanation. You are the only media to give this detail. Great Work.

[@greyjay9202]

Denys and Juan are the gold standard for analyzing aviation incidents. Both men are experienced commercial pilots, and they stick close to the facts as we know them. South Korean and U.S. air crash investigators will uncover the root causes of this incident, but I think Juan and Denys have hit the nail on the head. A preliminary report will likely be issued within a few weeks, followed much later by a final report.

[@rikudouray]

Too many redflags before and after. What's sad is the victim remains are still lying around in the hangar.

[@xenadu02]

Don't forget brake accumulator holds enough fluid and pressure for one solid application of the brakes even if all pumps offline and all fluid lost. No excuse for failing to pull manual gear extension cables. Also no excuse for a concrete and dirt berm off the end of the runway. If the end was energy absorbing material and frangible ILS as intended we'd have more survivors. Belly landing calls for flying as close to stall speed as possible and touching down at the start of the runway. They came in pretty hot.

[@bb-6359]

Exactly. The one thing I don't understand is why their landing gear was not down. I think this will be the big question that investigators will be pursuing. Unless there was somehow some sort of catastrophic failure that somehow took out both the hydraulics and the manual gear extension system that jammed all three landing gears, this is clear pilot error. I'm speculating here, but the way they landed, I suspect they thought they had gear down, and they just forgot to put gear down in the stress of the emergency. Highly unfortunate.

[@stratocasterblue]

No the accumulator is just a tank full of fluid and if you have no pressure you have no pressure and that is what happened

[@mertc8050]

This looks like a gigantic pilot error. No landing gear, no flaps, no speed break, right engine reverser is deployed left one isnt but we have seen from another video the right engine was producing fireballs dont know if its double engine failure (its not since they did go around) or lethal mistake of accidental shutdown of working engine instead, there have been incidents where this occured killing lots of people.

[@Bardmusic66]

I believe there will be some level of pilot error.

[@joetrapp9187]

There is no excuse, and that airport had years, if not decades, to bring it's runway up to international standards.

[@S0l1DShark]

I liked your idea “we are in the sky after the birds, and birds are birds”.

[@EdL-m3b]

I'm in S. Korea. The blackbox has arrived in Gimpo airport and they will examine it today the report said. The president who was impeached recommended the families of passengers be taken care of and compensated. The head of Jeju Air took full responsibility. The two survivors were taken to hospital I go to and it's huge modern hospital with latest equipment. They are in their 20's and part of cabin crew. In case if you haven't heard - they said they couldn't remember what happened - probably due to losing consciousness(?).

[@lenseofanomad]

yes as what every news station is saying

[@FloridaIndependent]

Wrong. They are ashamed of their guilt. They panicked just like the rest of the crew instead of helping the pilots.

[@EdL-m3b]

@@FloridaIndependent Stick with Florida news.

[@someday6553]

Are you Korean?

[@EdL-m3b]

@@lenseofanomad Probably English speaking ones. I also speak Korean and live here so you can say I get reports faster.

[@heinz-dietersindhoff7344]

As a professional pilot my congratulations to your professional analysis ;-)

[@michaelwhite278]

Recapitulation? Lol

[@esseel7896]

as a LOL

[@heinz-dietersindhoff7344]

@@esseel7896 well....yes somehow 🥴

[@lukapretegiani3348]

please don't be as bad as a oilot as he is, sir.

[@kevingraham3161]

What a great report, makes so much sense what you spoke about. You and Blancolirio are the best.

[@tysgem7]

I’m so very very sorry this happened to you all in South Korea. My heart aches for you and your losses. If only that wall were not in the way…….the flight crew did a tremendous job under the circumstances I believe. My condolences 🙏🏼🙏🏼 from nyc ny

[@diane9247]

Thank you for this analysis, Denys. Those poor families. May their loved ones rest in peace.💐

[@DireConsenquences]

Ppl in Korea are really unhappy with how long it's taking to identify the bodies. I'm pretty sure that trying to put any identity to bits of human charcoal and random chunks of flesh is going to take a while. I don't think these people understand just how violent the impact was, and that if it's taking a while to identify the bodies, it's probably because there wasn't much 'body' left to begin with. And it's not like I don't understand their pain, I do. But the investigators and the coroners I am sure are working as hard as they can to get the bodies back to their family members. When you're working with something as bad as this, it's going to take a while.

[@yaohan91]

I saw a video where one of the PIC on the ground was answering the public during a press conference. He said in a devastating manner and trying as hard as he could to hold back his tear and said at the minute we can't give you back the body yet.... because there is no intact body......

[@clivesnook7145]

I'm not sure, but it looks like Jeju did not have a contracted Crisis Management Company, which was a major factor in how MH was poorly managed, and even going back as recent as 2015, Asiana 214 where the airline was heavily fined for not having such a system in place........... but hey, confirmation bias?

[@shelleythompson-brock6412]

Absolutely. Prayers for all families affected. Including those who are dealing with the aftermath of this tragic event.

[@clivesnook7145]

@@shelleythompson-brock6412 Prayer only if people are religious......

[@haha123loveskitkats]

Ya I've been confused by this. I've seen various news outlets implying passengers' bodies will be intact, like did they see the crash? They were blown to pieces :( rip

[@magnusenamd]

I believe your guess may be correct. I have followed so many crashes and problems that I know several who shut down the wrong engine. So this is not too impossible at all. For 30 years I have followed so many documentaries and now in recent years I follow people like you.Cool you brought up the case I was thinking of. Would probably say the most famous case. So frustrated that people make such crazy mistakes and kill women and children and themselves.

[@Papershields001]

What if they lost both engines, turned immediately back to the field for tailwind landing with too much energy, then the relight works on one of the engines but they are already committed to the belly landing?

[@AldrichSandjaya]

They would find a lake

[@quitbeingIllusion]

@@AldrichSandjaya only sea is there

[@FordManiac76]

They should have started the APU to regain electronics and emergency hydraulics to lower the gear!

[@causewaykayak]

So You would not make mistakes 😅. You say you get frustrated but it's not your place to get emotional. You are like the weepy journalists. Maybe you also get satisfaction staring into other folks graves. 😂

[@vulcanvoyager]

Just come across your channel, excellent analysis! You speculated on the possibility of wrong engine shutdown: The Kegworth air disaster occurred when British Midland Airways Flight 092, a Boeing 737-400, crashed onto the motorway embankment between the M1 motorway and A453 road near Kegworth, Leicestershire, England, while attempting to make an emergency landing at East Midlands Airport on 8 January 1989.

[@millaufan]

I drove past that area on the M1 motorway 10 mins before the crash happened on the embankment leading up from the M1 - John,UK

[@juliocean1331]

Thank You for your respectful, detailed and informed analysis of this tragic event. The Accident Report will provide answers to the many questions surrounding this event. Condolences to all who lost loved ones in this heartbreaking accident. RIP to all who sadly did not survive. Thoughts and Prayers are with the two surviving cabin crew at this very difficult time. 🙏💐

[@Blazerfan11]

Another example of shutting down the wrong engine was British Midland Airways Flight 092. The "Kegworth Air Disaster," in 1989. The pilots shut down the wrong engine based on their knowledge of the air conditioning system of previous models of the 737, which did not apply to the 737-400 they were flying. Smoke had entered the main cabin, and in previous models of the 737, the main cabin air conditioning came from the right engine. So they shut down the right engine. However, it was the left engine that was damaged.

[@susanwestern6434]

The plane came down very near a high traffic motorway, I seem to remember.

[@clives344]

Remember that event as we were driving along the M1 at the time.

[@MarcoTernavasio-pv3ec]

The engine was workin at full power, you can hear it from the registration.

[@Bootymcdonald]

An example for a disaster of the same type that occurred in recent times is Transasia 235

[@castheeuwes1085]

With all computer-power in these planes, WHY is it possible that a good working engine can be turned off after a big system failure? And now I learn here that it happened multiple times already..

[@petersp63]

Incredibly Fascinating getting a pilots view! of these tragic events! R.I.P those that lost there lives and recover soon the survivors!

[@frostblasts]

Your analysis is on point, a lot more detailed and a lot earlier than mainstream media.

[@bombacimulayim1453]

Yes you are correct, ground effect worsened the situation. Harder impact on first approach will save more lives. Wrong engine was shut down.

[@Cars-k8e]

Why would there be a hard impact on first approach? They could have landed normal with an engine stall on one engine

[@EventHorizon8-p3g]

​@Cars-k8e if normal landing wasn't possible, harder impact = more speed reduction and the plane stops faster. Some airlines do hard touch down to spare the engines as they are less under strain to slow the plane and engines can have a longer lifetime

[@bombacimulayim1453]

@@Cars-k8e because gentle aproach caused graund effect and plane floated , unable to land and it cannot stop within the runway.

[@Cars-k8e]

@ not only the gentle approach caused it, but the high speed.

[@samuraiwarriorsunite]

The people filming did a great job of capturing this tragedy. I'm sure the video footage will be heavily analyzed.

[@luvsmallhome]

My son is asking why someone could capture a video of a plane crash.

[@KathrynsWorldWildfireTracking]

The airport needs to release the footage they have ASAP. Now is not the time to be hiding things. We need to know everything about what happened, as soon as possible to try to prevent more tragedies. Don't tell me the airport didn't have cameras...

[@MrStian78]

@@luvsmallhome because planespotting

[@xXDrocenXx]

​@luvsmallhome My answer would be flight spotter. It's a hobby for some people and some have a equipment to hear the radio of the pilots/tower. So it's for them easy to get some footage.

[@arcosprey4811]

@@luvsmallhomeI plane spot very commonly usually around the area of landing but many people do it

[@JMChladek]

There's one incident I can recall with a 737 crew shutting down the wrong engine. The year was 1984 I believe and it was a British Midland 737-400. They incured turbine blade damage on takeoff, but were able to climb out on one engine after shutting down the other. Only problem is they shut down the good engine. So when the bad engine acted up again, it went out and they were unable to restart the other engine before impact with the ground. Concerning the cell phone video of the compressor stall, investigators need to make sure the image didn't get flipped. That can be done accidentally or intentionally.

[@gbedmonds1594]

Very good analysis Denys, I think you've found the reason to this bizarre accident.

[@edinnorthcarolina--ovelhog5786]

I am a retired airline pilot and I appreciate this well thought through report.

[@andrewalcock461]

Any thoughts about the transponder stopping at the point of the bird strike? Is this an indication that all electric systems stopped from this point? That would support your theory that the wrong engine was shut down and the APU had not started.

[@Treyorrrr]

At first I thought it was just the ADS-B signal getting blocked since they were low to the ground, but all other tracks I checked to that airport show the data to the ground.

[@Joachim-d9b]

I visually observed a goaround at an airport in Germany and later looked it up at flightradar24. The flightpath ended in the same way in front of the runway.

[@PabitraPadhy]

@@Joachim-d9b was it like GPS location, once you reach near your destination, then the trip is complete?

[@Joachim-d9b]

No, all other flights were shown completely including taxiing to terminal. Only this one ended around the time the engines spooled up to go around.

[@PaulHester66]

I thought it could be connected. Somehow a loss of all electronics, would explain a lot, still controllable but do flaps need electronics to work?

[@ricky_pigeon]

Thanks for making this video Denys.

[@nicolasbator1091]

Loving that coop with blancolirio, being following both since a while. Take care dudes.

[@cuttysark7934]

I do see that there are three factors here: the bird / engine problem, the possible pilot error, and the concrete slab at the end of the runway. An absence of any one of these factors could have lessened the casualties.

[@deaddropholiday]

The concrete slab is a red-herring for me. At the speed they were travelling they still needed several thousand meters to come to a stop. Which means even without the concrete they were ploughing into structures/trees beyond laden with fuel.

[@HardCoverJacket]

​@@deaddropholiday It seems like if the plane crashed through the airport cinder block boundary wall there is a road and grass lands before the nearest house. So trees wouldn't have been much of an issue. The way the plane landed most if not all of the passengers could have survived. In my non professional and ignorant opinion. (Not sure of people in the cockpit. I'm not sure but the front could crumple if the planned tipped or went into the ground) friction fire could burn/kill them.

[@barto6577]

@@HardCoverJacket Google Earth shows only about 600 meters to the road, and 900 to the hotel. There's no way that plane would have stopped before the hotel. After the perimeter fence there's a paved strip with the rest of the landing alignment lights on it.

[@andyq752]

Thanks Denys for your excellent analysis. I am a new subscriber and am very pleased to be here! So far I have watched about 30 videos about this crash and every one brings fresh questions! RIP to those lost souls and deep condolonces to the families and friends.

[@phillipsanchez4192]

Your videos are hands down the best inofrmation I have seen on this incident. Very tragic no matter what combination of things led to these deaths.

[@KlavdiLu]

Powerful work 👍🏻, thank you!

[@Asiansxsymbol]

As an aviation expert from many flights as a customer, I can concur everything this guy says is true.

[@katemakeuplooks]

Really glad I discovered your channel. Love the way you present facts and your own speculation but qualify that with “let’s wait for the results of the investigation”. Great stuff, thank you 😊

[@Alexiosftw]

I'm not an expert or pilot for that matter, but having read about many hundreds of aircraft accidents and incidents and also possess decent knowledge of aircraft types and systems, this accident has me all sorts of confused. I guess the data from the fdr and cvr will be very helpful when it's released. Thanks for the update, Denys!

[@retrovideoquest]

I understand the the squawk 7700 (a few days before this crash occurred) was due to a "medical emergency" with a passenger, not anything wrong with the airplane (I think it was the Airline who mentioned this)

[@commerce-usa]

If true, yet another level of complexity added to the flight deck crew, The initial report on this should provide a lot of insights on the crash.

[@DoubleMonoLR]

@@commerce-usa They were referring to a previous flight that was discussed in the video, where they diverted to Seoul.

[@MrStian78]

@@commerce-usaWhat are you talking about???

[@mapleext]

Nice job ! You and Juan are very reliable, and report the facts quickly and thoroughly. MentourPilot’s reports are basically the very highest quality documentaries -usually more of a wrap up after lots of research. I like all three of you and am learning a lot. Your idea of wrong engine shutoff would answer a lot of questions -like you said, we must wait and see. Hate this loss of life. 😢

[@MAYORofSHEFFIELD]

It's time to consider that the crew grossly mismanaged this event. Also I've heard that the previous diversion this aircraft had was due to a medical issue and not a mechanical one. Previously it was reported as a diversion due to a hydraulic issue. I expect further clarification on that soon.

[@MAYORofSHEFFIELD]

Solid synopsis by the way. Covering the hydraulic systems and covering all the pumps in that way is very useful for people looking for a good understanding of how this may have happened.

[@cy4330]

Everyone is blaming the barrier but that is not the cause of the sequence of events. It's everything on pilot's decision.

[@krossbolt4100]

It's time to WAIT for a proper investigation team to assess what happened with the CVR data and everything else.

[@joetrapp9187]

@@cy4330 I worked at an airport for years as an Engineer. Runway overruns have been a focus for a couple of decades, and nearly every airport has removed these obstacles, lengthened and widened runways, and added EMAS to the ends of runways to slow down overshoots. This airport, apparently said, "Nah, it's not a big deal." People focus on the acute events, but the chronic issues that lead to tragedies are managers not doing what they were supposed to.

[@fatalradius]

Kinda crazy to blame the crew so soon. The captain landed that plane perfectly, without landing gear. Let’s wait for more info.

[@gulthepilot]

Capt myself here on this bird..The minute I saw the over run on the belly I knew it was pilot error....I initially also thought Rev unlocked in flight number 2....coz only multiple failures let that happen...look at all the dirt that ll come out now followed by new circulars and sim exercises every 6 months...its sad.

[@TheUrantia001]

like being back at school, the beuracracy...this culture is a different breed, and the same rules shouldn't be applied to a more developed western consciousness..it's just fact, have lived in Asia for years...very backwards, and i'm not talking about the reverse thrust...too few people discuss this...which is why incidents like this are allowed to happen..

[@hb1338]

No 737 captain would speak as you do, or make such wild assertions based on so little knowledge.

[@gulthepilot]

@@hb1338 right....🤣

[@cassandratq9301]

It is the wall that killed the people.

[@NeverEnoughCoffee]

Very useful and understandable information on the crash. Thank you for this channel!

[@smakfu1375]

All I do know is that something very strange happened: no spoilers, no slats/flaps, no gear, yet we have a long-fast final and, from possible bird strike to landing on runway 19, it was only ~7 minutes? I'm inclined to agree that something like shutting down the wrong engine occurred, or they had (or believed they had) a dual engine strike. Yet it appears the no1 engine is still producing thrust, yet no reverser was deployed, which would explain the lack of reverser. And yet, none of that explains why the gear wasn't dropped or why the wing was no longer configured correctly. If they did, as speculated, shut down the wrong engine, kicking out the hydraulics, and with both generators out of the mix, they'd have to start the APU to power the electric hydro pumps. But then why were the flaps retracted - the only reason to do that might be to reduce ground-effect on a fast landing, but then we're back to the fact that you'd need the APU or one of the generators driving one of the two primary pumps to retract the flaps. I suppose it's possible they retracted the flaps while on the go around while they still had residual generator power from windmilling in engine 2, but that seems improbable. What I do know is that in the time that they had, they couldn't have coherently executed all the checklists involved with the issues they were encountering. This channel is doing an excellent job covering this and the Azerbaijan 8243 shoot-down.

[@gregb1599]

If the wrong engine was shut down, then they would have crashed past the airport they had engine power to make the turn to return to the airport. 7 min without engine power at the low altitude there is no way they could glide that far, and also its shown they landed fast, meaning both engines must have been operating a one engine landing could not have landed that fast.

[@SonsoftheEagle]

Remote control disaster. Planes can be controlled via radio. CA-BOOM

[@rob.ale90]

@@gregb1599 the engine that got bird struck can still function and produce trust of course with reduced efficiency

[@smakfu1375]

@@gregb1599 It depends on when they shut the engine down and how much residual airspeed and altitude they’d acquired during the go around. If they did shutdown engine no1, it couldn’t have been long before touchdown, because you can clearly see it’s still producing hot exhaust. This all happened in ~7 minutes. Frankly none of this really makes sense, including how quickly they went from final on 01 to the attempt on 19. Whatever happened, I don’t see how they could be following standard procedures, as there wasn’t enough time.

[@gregb1599]

@rob.ale90 Then explain why they landed with gear up as if both engines were functioning, then they would have had full hydraulics to get both the gear down and extend the flaps and a happy ending.

[@EntertainBend01]

The airport originally had only supports for the steel antennas. After a hurricane damaged the supports, the DNP representative of the county ordered the aiport to build thick ass concrete around the supports. Can't believe how the DNP lobbied so hard for an airport to be built on a very high risk bird hit zone and lobbied for this shabby ass airport to be allowed for international travel.

[@TheUrantia001]

very apt points...

[@nasiruddin540]

How flaps and landing gear malfunctioned in same time...by any reason, why there is Block at the end point of runway!!!

[@megadutcher4107]

This is exactly why the Dutch invented "Polder Politics", these decisions should be left up to engineers not politicians.

[@MarvinWestmaas]

@@megadutcher4107 Is that how we ended up with things like C200, working excellent from the start, because we left it to the engineers? Btw, we should thank the 'waterschappen' / water boards for our polderpolitics, but sadly this concept isn't really that visible in national politics especially now with a government with parties more concerned about virtue signaling to the far right instead of implementing actual effective policies. Case in point, the crying over border patrols when we don't have the manpower available to perform the added tasks adequately, taking away from the workload they already were performing. This actually goes directly against the 'polder model' which has it's roots in the historical need for cooperation in water and land management requiring collective decision making *by stake holders*. Current government is like telling the water boards after a disastrous flood to not bother fixing the current holes in the dikes, but instead of focusing on a very small part and 'build a tall wall there to protect us'.... like that other far right populist guy in that other country. Where in a true polder model, the government would not make policy 'voor de buhne' but focus on policy which would actually get results. Like all the crying about sending every refugee back to Syria right away, as if it's a political decision and not one done on 'ambtenaar' level, we have an entire department which is tasked with determening if places/regions are safe, those things are not decided by Geertje or other politicians. .. nah, besides our water management, there is currently not a lot of 'polder politiek' going in here. And certainly not the kind were useless populist politicians 'let things to the engineers'.

[@IustinDornescu]

Regardless of the plane/pilot issues, the fact is that the emergency situation turned into catastrophic disaster because of the concrete structure which obliterated the plane...

[@PatrickGreen-o4c]

Your analysis is always the best, clear and concise, thanks Denis. Happy new year to you and your family, slava Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@grantp4022]

I saw a similar landing about 3 years ago, and I saw a pilot land a Boeing 767 , no landing gear, done to perfection. Passengers said, it was so smooth, it felt like a normal landing, and from what I saw, it looked like one as well. Right engine caught fire on landing, but put out right away. Nobody hurt. These guys panicked and entered the runway to deep, and too fast. The re - enforced concrete burm at runway end, being the final killer. If it was a mud field at the end, all would have lived. The people that designed that airfield should be responsible for this tragedy, although I'm sure they thought it was far enough back to be safe. I also believe the Pilots did panic in this case, so we'll await investigation.

[@EternalStarVoyager]

Honestly, it looks like the pilots forgot the wheels weren't down. I've been on a commercial flight where pilots made that mistake but fortunately they realized it with enough time for a safe go-around.

[@linvol20]

That would explain why it was hovering over the runway like it was waiting for the wheels to touch.

[@Sp3ll633]

And the speed of the airplane?. It was way too fast. You'd want to use the full length of the runway if you have high speed isn't it ?

[@TheUrantia001]

@@linvol20 for sure

[@criticalevent]

@@Sp3ll633 If they realized their mistake and tried to do a go around, as many pilots in this situation mistakenly try to do, that would explain the speed.

[@benn746]

Holy fuuuuuu what a last thought to have "I dropped the landing gear right?"

[@LarryLezon]

Given the info currently available to you - good analysis. And, your theoretical hypothesis is very intriguing and would not be surprised if you end up being "spot on".

[@maxheadroom9014]

I made this comment under your previous video. I agree, it is highly probable they shut down the wrong engine. "Bird strike on right engine but erroneous shut-down of operating (left) engine (Kegworth British Midland Airways Flight 092). Pilots realise error and attempt restart. Meanwhile, slik configuration chosen to retain airspeed to bridge distance to runway. Mayday called. Restart fail and too little time (panic) to run landing checklist (no flaps or gear deployed). Pilots opt for slick belly landing. At threshold too much airspeed has been retained and with no flaps/gear it takes too long to set aircraft down given speed and ground-effect. Poor reverse thrust on right engine may have been ineffective and left is still shut down (reverse not possible). Finally, aircraft sets down after 2,000m of washing-off airspeed (and ground effect), skids the remaining distance, then off the end and into the ILS structure (the bunker). Pilots kept centreline but this too proved fatal. IMO, pilots made a single bad error but recovered well and the aircraft would have been relatively fine if the ILS structure was not there."

[@pauldietz1325]

If the ILS structure had not been there, in my opinion the plane would have hit something else -- the boundary wall to the airport, or perhaps buildings beyond that. Maybe it could have been marginally slower, but it was still going ~150 mph at the final impact.

[@drewski5730]

The second engine might have simply failed too…. People are forgetting that a flock of birds can take down both engines. This scenario may have caused enough panic in the cockpit to circle back and land without gear and flaps.

[@margoloor894]

The accident aircraft executed a steep right hand turn in order to perform the landing as seen in the videos and then landed down the center line of the runway. How would that be possible with the loss of the hydraulic system and therefore control surfaces? Plus, I noticed the same thing you noticed - in the landing video, the right engine exhaust is clearly visible. It might not be fully operational, but it is definitely burning fuel and working. In the Sully movie, one of the contributing success factors was the captain switching on the APU ahead of checklist, almost immediately when the engines were spooling down. Always made me wonder, why switching on the APU is further down the checklist, not the first thing. Or even, why would the aircraft not switch it on automatically, with loss of power from both engine generators. Still, regardless of all crew decisions, survival likelihood would have been greatly increased without the mound in the overrun area, that the aircraft crashed into and exploded.

[@JStock-id1qi]

I believe the 737 has control cables for flight control on loss of hydraulics. I'm not 100% sure...

[@Ghredle]

Your summary is just great.. better then pilot blog

[@NicolaW72]

Indeed, exactly.

[@robindenker2504]

Sorry to disagree, given the speed of the aircraft and it’s direction of travel, the aircraft most probably would have-careered it into a more catastrophic situation, crossing a major highway and toward what appears to be resort communities taking more lives!

[@NicolaW72]

@@robindenker2504 A more catastrophic situation was nearly impossible, given that 179 out of 181 people on board died. This crash IS a worst-case-event. Every alternate scenario would had at least included the chance of a better outcome.

[@Voidb3rg]

You and blancolirio are both great! Having watched both of you, I feel completely informed. You both have somewhat different observations that make a cohesive whole!

[@cageordie]

Unbelievable how fast he was still going at the end of the runway. Even if there hadn't been a homicidal concrete wall I don't think they would have lost much more speed before hitting more bad scenery. No flaps, no gear, no spoilers... I'd rather have stuck it in the sea.

[@missakaiddamalgoda1879]

But still it would have been very little casualties if they didn’t have that wall

[@ZoneMaster-ftw]

Ya know the last thing that can happen in an emergency situation is an argument between the pilot and co pilot. Im not rushing to blame anyone but with how everything folded out it is a possibility

[@WM-sl1nf]

It does make me wonder how different the outcome would have been had they landed towards the water.

[@dew9103]

There’s no direct comparison that I can find but garuda 200 seems to be the closest. In that case the plane touchdown at 215 knots with gear down and bounced twice then overran the runway into a rice field. 21 people died

[@ZoneMaster-ftw]

@@WM-sl1nf with how much speed the plane was approaching the runway, the result won't be much different because water also has density and has the tendency to sink into. It would be like crashing into an underground wall

[@solandri69]

The video from the other side of the runway (which shows the explosion) that all the news channels have been playing has a full version which shows the touchdown on the runway. The person who shot that video posted where he shot it from. People were then able to use that, buildings in the background, and the plane (presumably lined up with the runway) to triangulate where it touched down. Estimates are it touched down about 6000-6500 ft down the 9200 ft runway. The fact that they didn't try another missed approach despite landing that long also supports the hypothesis that they shut down the wrong engine. They wouldn't have tried a missed approach if they thought they had insufficient engine thrust to get airborne again.

[@DanRyan-v5y]

So effectively only a 3000 foot runway with tailwind, no flaps , no brakes, maybe even no thrust reversers. Not really surprising it went off the end.

[@teebob21]

​@@DanRyan-v5yYes. The aircraft was still travelling at least 140 kts when it left the runway. There was no chance of stopping in the 250 meters between the runway and the ILS berm. This was pilot error and the aircraft mever stood a chance.

[@hb1338]

Official reports based on photographic analysis state 1200 metres along a 2800 metres runway. Given how little the plane slowed, landing long probably made very little difference to the outcome.

[@hb1338]

@@teebob21 Name any single error that the pilots made. Each such error MUST be supported by corroborating evidence.

[@teebob21]

@hb1338 Pilot error: Failure to deploy the landing gear before landing, for one. Evidence: the landing gear was obviously not deployed, as made evident in multiple videos of the accident.

[@sameersharma1501]

Very detailed and fact based analysis and approach. Keep up the great work!

[@chrispy104k]

16:33 - I remember that incident where they shut down the wrong engine. It's pretty obvious from the landing footage that the Port engine on the 737 was not working since there was no heat haze. I'm inclined to agree with you that maybe they shut down the wrong engine. Terrible sequence of events.

[@KenjaTimu]

I think the landing gear got retracted because they wanted to go around. If you only have one engine you'd have to retract the landing gear to go around? After pulling up the landing gear they shut off the wrong engine? Then they couldn't put it back down because the hydraulics weren't working because they shut off the wrong engine. And they couldn't go around because they had zero engines.

[@puneethck6555]

Could it have been possible that birds hit both engines and completely flamed out engine 1? With engine 2 partially damaged it could have provided just enough thrust to climb slightly but the pilots thought that it could quit at any moment hence causing them to rush the 2nd landing?

[@mfree80286]

There is a little refraction under #1 , see 18:34. Back and forth around that moment you can see a 'bubble of pavement' rise under the engine from refraction, it's a narrow cone but it's present.

[@drewski5730]

It could have simply failed too

[@jackdbur]

Pilots in a panic not the first for SK pilots SFO incident. Their short go around is typical of a PIC totally loosing his head.

[@volumus_HK]

Pilots also shut down the wrong engine in the case of BMI92, also a Boeing 737, where the fan blade broke on left engine but the pilots shut down the right engine. At first, I was baffled by application of the right reverse despite the engine being strike by a bird. Now I also share the same view as your supposition that the pilots might have shut down the wrong engine in a haste.

[@commonsenseisntcommon1776]

Why no landing gear? Its gravity operated

[@apacheglider]

thank you for taking the time to say that we should wait for and believe the final report of the investigation 👍

[@tommcglone2867]

This one was quite personal for me. I flew on this plane in its Ryanair days. Flew back to Manchester from Girona in 2012. To say im shocked is an understatement. And what the actual hell is that embankment doing so close to the end of the runway!?! Its amazing an accident like this hqs only occurred now.

[@KathrynsWorldWildfireTracking]

A Korean local in a live chat explained a typhoon damaged the localizers before. They wanted it typhoon-proof. He seemed honest and earnest.

[@timothyhingham3672]

​@@KathrynsWorldWildfireTrackingToo smart by one-half. I guess they didn't realize they made it airplane proof too, which honestly is pretty incompetent. I'm sure there were "dumb" laborers building the berm telling their bosses it sure seems like a stupid idea.

[@Michael_K_Woods]

I’ve seen enough investigations to know that crew resource management is often a negative factor. Whether it’s a FO too afraid to speak up, or a captain too dominant, these traits can really cause a tragedy when something unexpected happens.

[@marclandreville6367]

Cockpit discipline is a major factor in CRM: is the captain a one man show? Who's doing what? Is there concurrence between both when running a checklist? Is the checklist followed properly or even done at all? You'd be surprized sometimes.

[@KathrynsWorldWildfireTracking]

Either "Obedience Culture" dies, or people do. I hope, if anything comes out of the Korea tragedies, is a new attitude that people have a right to act on their own, to save their own lives.

[@foreverpinkf.7603]

The best explanation so far. Good work.

[@martinzhang5533]

Also, on Chinese social media there were pax who were on the previous emergency flight you mentioned in the video that said that it was a medical emergency and not related to the plane itself

[@Cars-k8e]

Then there should not be a squawk 7700 for an medical emergency.

[@A-n-n-a.6]

We all put our lives in their hands and trust them and it’s all good till it goes wrong for all. R.I.P 😔🙏🏻

[@62Cristoforo]

Flying is an act of constantly challenging the laws of physics and gravity

[@louispaparella5766]

Many years ago, my Mom would put me on a Lockheed Electra, and tell me to be careful. My response was always the same, "Mom, talk to the pilot, I'm not flying this bucket of bolts!" Those things vibrated worse than a dog crapping barbed wire!!! Winter time was scary. I couldn't see anything out of a side window on landings or takeoffs. I didn't know what the pilots were looking at!!! This was in the 50's and 60's...

[@babaoriley124]

Have been a Patreon of Juan's for five years. He is the best but, Sir, you have a hell of a lot going for you as well.

[@leejongwon.note5]

It touched dow at 1200m of runway first. That means just 1600m runway remained. As I calculate the everasing speed while skidding on the ground, the speed is 480km/h. Speed is too fast to landing...

[@tyronetrump1612]

ever try to slow a 737 down? They are slippery and take forever to slow down even in normal conditions ( roughly takes 1 nm to slow 10 kts) AND are one of the few out there with the highest stall speed - even a 747 has a lower stall speed

[@hb1338]

The aircraft landed at around 300 km/hr. If the pilots chose clean configuration in order to extend the glide path, that is about the lowest possible speed.

[@gforcemaybe3459]

The speed when going off the runway seems to be around 300km/h. I counted frames and measured/estimated the distance from runway markings via Google Earth.

[@1stellar_]

They not using any flaps just mad dogging it onto the runway , crazy

[@Kristianpont]

I believe your estimated speed is correct. I'm getting the same result from analysing the footage. I think they attempted to take off again.

[@psychologyrelated538]

Crazy how these things happen, thanks for covering this in detail!

[@TravisBerthelot]

Builders: We need a strong structure to hold up our antenna. Pilots: Sometimes planes need to go beyond the runway. Builders: Learn to land better. Pilots: Sad face.

[@holycow666]

I'm a builder and I know that a strong structure has to be below the surface. It's called a foundation. There's no reason why a foundation should extend high into the air. Putting this reinforced concrete wall at the end of the runway is madness.

[@betsy6202]

Denys!!!!!! Thanks for your report !!!!!!

[@patolt1628]

Well we don't know exactly but your assumption is the most brilliant I've read on this accident. It has the advantage of explaining the sequence of events in a plausible way. Glad to see you on aviation topics again. I wish you, as an old (in all senses of the word) follower, a happy new year. Take care

[@John.Christopher]

This is the same guy talking about Ukraine war?????

[@patolt1628]

@@John.Christopher Yes, on a different channel. He was a captain on Ukrainian International Airlines. Now he is in Switzerland, as far as I know

[@Julsan001]

What my non-pilot brain reacts to is the paniced mayday reaction to bird strikes and so shortly after landed. I understand that they could shut off the wrong engine but it feels like it should be something more catastrophic related to the 'bird strike' like maybe broken window in the flight deck or filled with smoke as it seemed like the pilot was holding his hand on the wind shield before crash. That still does not explain the belly landing which did not seem intentional in my eyes. Scary that they could have turned off the wrong engine because even on a computer you get a confirmation before deleting a huge file "are you sure you really want to delete this(fully functional motor, left motor)?".

[@PeterWTaylor]

What you suggest at 12:13 is exactly what happened to another Boeing 737 in the Kegworth crash 1989 so it's a very plausible theory.

[@darby5987]

Denys, thank you for an honest and non judgemental evaluation of the accident. As you know , right now we don't know what went on in that cockpit following the bird strike nor do we know what systems immediately failed. Go around? Continue? The PIC made the call without hesitation just as the Boeing manual called for. Over the coming weeks and months we'll find out why the crew decided to immediately land rather than enter a holding problem to work the checklists and the problem. It's too early to second guess them. Why were the flaps fully retracted instead of being left in 30-40 or 15, no landing gear, slats or spoilers? We'll find out later. For all we know today there may have been so many bells, lights and whistles sounding in the cockpit that the pilots became fatally task saturated. Again, we'll find out later. The only upside to the entire tragedy is the two survivors are crew. Though they aren't pilots they are trained and will have a professional perspective to give to the investigators.

[@ammarbader3068]

Aircraft manufacturers should start adding a light indicator on the engine shutdown switch to guide pilots in such circumstances to the affected engine. Also, what about the possibility that both engines where partially damaged by the bird strike, because the other engine (engine 1 on the left side) looks to be still working in the footage but not continuously, this will explain the rush to land with this configuration.

[@bluskytoo]

there are several lights associated with a shutdown engine. Hydraulic warning, electrical, pneumatic. , oil pressure. Its obvious which engine is not running.

[@ian2989]

Kegworth air disaster BMA092 they also shut down the wrong engine on their 737.

[@seadogjack2022]

Very good analysis, you help me understand the situation from an expert point of view, rather than a layman’s point of view.

[@guisousa7139]

Remember guys, not every bird strike produces flames like an afterburner. The other engine may got damaged aswell and stopped producing 100% power to maintain a flight or even a G/A Maybe thats why they skipped the procedures and came in hot

[@rhouser1280]

6:14 Such an important point with these. We have more information now and all the time in the world to think about what the best course of action could have been. In the moment, those guys had some info but a few seconds to make a decision that could change everyone's life on that flight.