Playing Aces on a Low Board | Koon v Seidel | GTO Analysis

Analysis of a hand from the $25k buy-in, $10m GTD Party Poker Caribbean event between Jason Koon and Erik Seidel.
Preflop: rangeconverter... (use EQUILIBRIUMPF for 20% off on postflop solutions and ISITGTO for 10% off preflop solutions)
Postflop: www.piosolver....

[@CipherSerpico]

I know I’ve said this a million times - but I just wanna say thank you for yet another excellent video. You really have a gift for explaining complex concepts in a way that is so easy to follow. I have ADD so it is hard for me to follow things sometimes, especially when it comes to PioSolver. But for whatever reason, I am always able to follow your videos. Thanks again.

[@zamanski7094]

Love these videos learn a lot from them! You should do a GTO break down on some of the mike Postle hands!

[@whaturtle]

That would be a God Technique Optimal

[@jmcstone8279]

Thanks for giving us players, who don't have much support, an excellent & understandable outlet to gain from. Hope to see more wonderful vid productions in the future.

[@BluffinBTN]

I find these videos very thought provoking and I enjoy them a lot before I go play $1/$3 at the casino. Its helped my thought process in thinking more about what my opponents think I might have and what they think I think they have. :)

[@Amethyst_Friend]

That last bit is over-thinking it!

[@clevertrevorsdad]

Love this balanced channel 💕

[@reznor1718]

Amazing seeing the solver show strategies for leveling on what your range looks like to your opponent by disguising your range.

[@Ruftenkind]

I love your videos sir! Always a joy to watch.

[@martinleithe7167]

Yay, another video from my favourite channel!. Awesome

[@StuartFerguson55]

He's turning his hand into a bluff though... say the commentators.

[@krin8831]

According to them he's trying to bluff him off straight or sets lol

[@vasildyulgerov795]

I think this is a reasonable assumption since Eric shouldn't have overpairs on this board as they should bet turn for value and protection. As you can see in the video he should bet close to his whole range on this turn, but he didn't, so we can only assume what his checking range looks like, but it makes more sense to consist of sets as he is checking them with the idea of check raise and they don't need as much protection as the overpairs. So on the river I think it's more likely for his range to consist of mainly sets and straghts and bluffs than overpairs that didn't bet the turn. Also for Koon holding two aces is very good since it blocks hard A5s

[@StuartFerguson55]

@@vasildyulgerov795 Opponents range is nuts or air? So go ahead and raise top pair!

[@vasildyulgerov795]

@@StuartFerguson55 Set is not nuts on this board and not sure if I uderstand you correctly but even if it is why would you raise TP ?

[@StuartFerguson55]

@@vasildyulgerov795 I'm just trolling you. Turning top pair into a bluff against a polarized range makes no sense at all in almost every possible situation. The raise is clearly for value to anyone who knows anything about poker. A player of this caliber would never turn one of his strongest holdings into a bluff after taking this line which unreps his hand. The commentators just have no idea what they are talking about suggesting that this is a bluff to get a set to fold.

[@sofiethijs1833]

I just LOVE your content SO much!! You should do live commentary and we would get pro over watching 1 stream 😂 keep it up mate, keep the content coming 😍😍✨

[@su2sa1li4]

I liked you using the solve for the why video... please do more, it's multiple analyses

[@sxyy2559]

Big fan. Could you do some GTO analysis of Mike Postle hands to prove how impossible his win rate is???

[@ivantononi1455]

2:24 why is the solver folding 8s, 7s, 6s and 5s a portion of the times, but always flatting 4s, 3s and 2s?

[@FindingEquilibrium]

The graphics are a bit deceptive. The way the charts work is that they show how much of the REMAINING range takes that action. So that chart shows how many of the few combos of 4s,3s and 2s that opened UTG call, which ultimately ends up being a lesser percentage than 5,6,7,8, since all of those pocket pairs opened UTG.

[@ivantononi1455]

@@FindingEquilibrium Thanks for getting back to me. I am still a bit confused though, we are still preflop here and the hands shown all opened before getting 3bet, so there shouldn't be anything not remaining at this stage (and will be shown in grey colour on later streets). The only thing I can think of is that we are deep OOP and if in villain's 3betting range there are hands like 78s or 67s or A5s for example it blocks our outs and decrease the chances of us hitting a set and ultimately we end up folding on a lot of flops and turns if villain puts pressure, whereas villain rarely will 3bet hands containing a 4, a 3 or a 2 (maybe A4s or A3s but not so often) and we are more likely to hit our set. I may be wrong though.

[@FindingEquilibrium]

@@ivantononi1455 4s, 3s and 2s only open a fraction of the time UTG (see around 0:51)- that's what I mean by the remaining range.

[@oliver8510]

How can they get commentators who don't realise the river raise is for value vs over pairs?

[@IRNjuggle28]

They're just results oriented. They'd have framed it as for value if Eric had been bluffing.

[@Gos1234567]

But are overpairs checking the turn after Koons checkback on the flop?Just checked and at 4.22 he should be betting his range in that spot

[@johngriller4997]

gerry o sullivan he should, but it’s also fine to nodelock here for metagame purposes esp if he’s planning on including a lot of river raises in diff spots. This would be one of them where it’s very hard to play against it.

[@jonnyb3647]

Great analysis, keep em coming

[@TMM_23]

What a great work bud, keep it up!

[@synchronium24]

0:45 A few things about the preflop UTG opening range are interesting to me here. KQo is opened more often than AJo, Q9s is opened less than K9s, J9s or T9s (perhaps because it is lacking in both connectivity and a K+ high card), and K6s is opened a small percentage of the time but not K7s. 2:30 22-44 is always a call, but 55-88 folds some portion of the time (and almost half the time in the case of 55!). This is far more confusing to me than anything in the UTG open chart.

[@Roopeit]

@Cashane Though board coverage is bullshit since no1 is going to exploit you in MOST cases. KQo plays terribly and is a marginal open UTG.

[@Bisirsky]

12:54 Anatoly Filatov: "Wtf, if they have strong hands, why they check, lol fishes"

[@JohnSmith-su3ze]

As I'm watching this video, I've suddenly realized I've been playing pretty close to GTO when I'm focused and playing disciplined and mindfully. I always thought GTO was some esoteric strategy, but I now realize its a slightly refined version of the solid poker strategy I was already playing. Maybe I'm a better player than I thought I was?

[@Amethyst_Friend]

Way to humblebrag.

[@JohnSmith-su3ze]

@@Amethyst_Friend It's not a humblebrag. I'm interested in hearing peoples responses so I can find out if there might be some truth in what I'm saying I'm only interested in improving my game

[@loafes1352]

GTO consideres the entirety of the poker game tree, it’s not hard for any reasonable player to be playing GTO lines on any given branch even quite often. What is much more difficult is playing all the mixed strategies and more importantly playing the right frequencies. Even the best players aren’t going to be playing everything at the right frequency, especially if it comes to some odd lines like understanding when to Donk

[@jonjon8668]

French guy talking loud in the background talking saying "I'm overwhelmed by the modern game." after using some old school French poker words describing some spot he played. 😂

[@vitalzab1]

Commentators shoould apply for the Stones, they would fit there well.

[@johngriller4997]

Lmaooo A+

[@Drcn011]

Hello. I'm from Russia, and I don't understand much of what you are speaking in videos, but as I understand, you said it would be a bluff with AK on the river from Koon. Isn't it a value bet against weaker aces of Seidel though?

[@srki22]

Do you still have this sim? If the answer is yes, can you run it longer on the river because I think that option of raising big with AA should completely disappear (maybe even the option for the small raise), or the percentage will change but the EV will be exactly the same. From a theoretical standpoint, the EV of mixed actions should be exactly the same, that is why you don't have to point that out. If it is not the same that means that sim was not run with good precision and maybe there is no mixed action.

[@Gos1234567]

Im still so confused on the AA raise,it cant be either for value (what worst hand is bet/calling there?) or value (what is folding to a raise as how has Koon got 55 or A5s there,maybe a small percentage of the time.Bluffs are folding to a raise but just call with AA then) I think this is neither and just a raise to balance the rare times Koon has the nuts or maybe a set there,ive seen other videos where pio balances bluffs not with air but merge type hands that block value,i suppose AA does block A5s there.

[@user-bz6jb1mo9z]

Great work bro.

[@whotookmybadjas]

How does Seidel defend against a bet on that flop? I imagine 55 being a good XR right? SPR is pretty awkward though...

[@KamratKamala]

Thank you!!!!!

[@connman8d617]

I know solvers are supposed to be the end all but I just can't agree with checking for a 3rd time if I'm Eric. I think this would be a fine spot to overbet the pot and try to rep a bricked draw like perhaps T9 or even 98. I think Jason might find a hero call some of the time with Ace high and will definitely call with any hand he's been slow playing like Aces or a flopped set perhaps. I think 200k is reasonable. In this case, Eric goes for 100k and gets raised which is a dream scenario.

[@Dugsart]

Once the river comes, and both players have checked flop and turn, what are the reasons for and against 55 overbetting there? From a GTO standpoint?

[@FindingEquilibrium]

The solver isn't really overbetting there, but one reason would be to get value from overpairs, but that is a relatively small portion of Jason's range.

[@Dugsart]

Im having trouble understanding the overbetting concept. In other spots, button vs bb say, ive heard it said that overbetting certain rivers is viable because button has the range advantage. The "range advantage" only consists of a few hands though. Just like here... where the oop player is stated as having the range advantage, and in fact has a nutted hand... whats the difference?

[@BWBBRO]

When Koon raises the river it's gotta be pretty difficult to put him on a 5 the way the hand played out. There should be very few 5's in his 3bet range here, and those should be often betting the flop or and/or turn. Wouldn't that open him up to some 3 bet river bluffs? Is the solver ever 3 bet bluffing the river with any portion of Seidel's range here?

[@effortlessawareness8778]

A 3 bet river bluff is so unlikely given its a tournament. And even more unlikely that Seidel would ever 3bet bluff on a river. No one ever does that. Seidels lifetime tourney stat on %of 3bet bluffing on river is 0. Because a raise on the river by koon is probably 7:1 Favoring value hands. So now Seidel raising here with a bluff with ie KQs to think that is this the 1 out of 8 times that Koon is bluff raising the river to have the gall to 3bet without a 5 here is extremely tough. But i do believe that this is a good spot for seidel to exploit Since he never 3bet bluffs on the river ever. If i was seidel I would certainly Be pulling this move now, his table image as an incredibly competent TAG would get him so many folds However When he bets rivers its hard for ppl to not believe him so they will call the river bet. If he check raises the river he will get more fold equity.

[@BWBBRO]

@@effortlessawareness8778 Yea I did forget it was a tournament which makes bluffing more unlikely-and yes I am aware of Seidel's tighter image. I guess my main point is how hard it is to put Koon on a 5 given the play from preflop to the river. Pretty interesting hand though.

[@CaveCow]

why would Jason try to balance his range with AA on a board that favors UTG and give a free card? You get AA only so often. Do that with AK, AQ or AJ instead. He will still be continuing with AK, AQ, AJ a lot so AA with its rare appearance does not matter. Just gave free cards to get crushed.

[@LucidVision1]

For what it's worth, I think 55 should make an exploitative bet, and not check to check/raise. You see the solver value betting AK a good % of the time in Jason's shoes if checked to, which is included in the EV analysis. I'm not positive how the games are right now, but do people value bet AK in this spot a high% ? My intuition is almost never.

[@DJ33970]

I don't like how Koon played his AA at all on any of the post flop streets. I'm betting the flop, barreling turn and checking back the river on this run out. I also think that turning his AA into a bluff on this river makes no sense as he pretty much never gets called by worse. Terrible.

[@jonjon8668]

And that's why you play 1 million buy in tournaments and Jason doesn't... Oh wait...

[@loafes1352]

And I like checking back flop often. Turn I’d probably be betting but I like checking back with some frequency. The river I’m not a huge fan of Raising as I’d expect most overpairs to have led turn, I’d probably be mostly flatting after taking this line

[@Gos1234567]

@@jonjon8668 Nice one!lol

[@Gos1234567]

You need to mix it up a bit more

[@Gos1234567]

Did you have a video on check raising strategies with Chidwick?Seems to be gone

[@FindingEquilibrium]

pokergo took all vids using their footage down

[@Gos1234567]

Finding Equilibrium damn them!That was a great video.

[@Drdarkplatypus]

How is EV lost while betting the river when the preflop aggressor should hold ace highs in this board which would be blocking the wheel leading Sidel to value bet larger than usual

[@FindingEquilibrium]

I was specifically referring to hands that Jason would bet as a bluff if Erik checked. Also, if you are targeting ace high, a smaller bet would seem to make more sense. In any event, I don't think Erik's play was an error - I was just trying to explain perhaps why the solver was mostly checking.

[@Drdarkplatypus]

@@FindingEquilibrium I see your point now, it does make sense for a smaller bet or checking in this situation, thank you ! Btw love your videos.

[@CaveCow]

yeah, and the fact there is ante doesn't mean UTG suddenly becomes BB who's calling with more crap hands. UTG's openers range is usually tight, but that is quickly swept under the carpet mentioning ante while in the background we see a screenshot showing 55 is practically the bottom of UTG's range with - 76 folding 71%, and 65 folding 81% of the time. If we are talking ranges than surely this flop wasn't favorable for the UTG opener. And that is why Jason decided to raise in the end. If he would play the hand knowing that this board is heavily favorable for opponent (as the Finding Equilibrium says) he would just call. Jason thought the UTG had at least mid to top of his range starting form 88 or 99 and up, hence the raise! Why would he raise on a 4 to a straight board knowing it is so favorable to opponent? Why raise knowing that every card on that 5 card board could be a set or there could be tons of two pairs? You sir are just robbing Jason of his poker knowledge. It is clear that is not what he was thinking here.

[@wcrider]

I m a better player after watching this.

[@johngriller4997]

Finding Equilibrium making the games tougher for everyone now ughhh. ;)

[@wcrider]

@@johngriller4997 True 😅

[@MrWeenuk21]

Mr. Equilibrium! me tick 🤒🤢

[@mariodiaz3976]

55 is not the nuts. 58 is

[@FindingEquilibrium]

I said "given their ranges". They shouldn't have 58 in their ranges in a 3b pot very often.

[@guntherhunter5231]

These commentators are cringe