Poker Variance is WAY BIGGER than you Think

[@chromersv]

I knew my 5 year downswing was just variance, thanks Pete

[@split317]

😭😭😭😭

[@wayne9287]

Don't quit you are just having the worse luck in history of poker👍

[@mossy8419]

@@wayne9287 99% of poker players quit just before their big upswing

[@TexasPoker40]

You’re only 5 years in, I’m at 15😅

[@TheJGB2112]

Same as nick airball lol

[@seangrover702]

Been a full time pro for 12 years. The biggest thing I’ve learned is that variance is way crazier than you think.

[@StuartFerguson55]

Longest breakeven stretch in hours?

[@imnugget8085]

What's ur longest variant timeline

[@seangrover702]

Well I’ve played mostly live hold em and a few million hands of online plo. But I’ve had break even stretches of 18 months before. But overall just seen lots of players run well above ev for long stretches and seen other players run poorly and been forced to quit poker. So luck really does play a big factor in your long term results.

[@dustinp26]

weird thing to say considering most people already view poker as luck. Sounds like it's crazier than YOU think.

[@king_cj]

​@@seangrover702ts better to be lucky than bright

[@iamamishiamamish8155]

The interesting thing to me about all of this is that variance is really the pro's greatest ally. Without variance, people's true performance would be apparent straight away. Variance helps hide players' true performance, and helps them convince themselves that they're just 'running bad'. Combine that with the fact that some positive memories are more salient (you remember the huge pots you won more than the slightly losing sessions) and fish keep coming back. You need the fish, since it is a zero sum game. I'm really glad I don't rely on poker to make a living.

[@andiandrei7353]

combine with the fact that peter clarke doesnt play poker for a living and you see how "profitable" poker really is

[@Gingnose]

There's no variance in chess but enjoyed worldwide

[@iamamishiamamish8155]

@@Gingnose true but you also don't see people consistently betting on their own chess performance, losing, then coming back for more

[@jstiller30]

​@@Gingnose There is variance in chess, just not in the same way. Any activity that requires human judgement will have variance in your performance. The variance is obviously much smaller in chess, but its undeniably there.

[@xRakanishu]

@@jstiller30 That's a completely different application of the term "variance" than what's at play in poker. Apples and oranges are fruit, etc.

[@ervinhorvath9119]

You are the most underrated poker coach ever! For real, please keep doing these videos.

[@Jacobson-dp7gg]

Not really, there are hundreds of better players and coaches than this guy who are far less known

[@ervinhorvath9119]

@@Jacobson-dp7gg Maybe but from what I know this guy is the best. Please share others so that I can check them out. Thanks

[@wolf-ro7ml]

​​@@Jacobson-dp7gg Can he even beat some relevant cash game limit ?Or just made momey from coaching.

[@Jacobson-dp7gg]

@@wolf-ro7ml he was losing at 200 zoom, the game he played for the last 2 years

[@moldyorangepeel]

17:40 That live poker octupus description got a little unhinged😂

[@a5suited201]

One thing to add, the variance calculator assumes u play that winrate the whole time and does not factor in mental game or time of day etc, theres no way a 3-4bb/100 winner is playing +3bb poker when they are on a 20bi downer u can always assume the variance calculator is being generous

[@iLengzai]

im a constant 3bb-5bb winner but currently im on a 24bi downswing, i sure dont play like im a 5bb player haha

[@aksharpatel5119]

Your win rate factors that in. You might be 10BB when your A game and 1BB when your C game and this evens out to whatever your average win rate is

[@aless13260]

@@aksharpatel5119 exactly, if your winrate at your A+ game is 3bb then you are doomed to quit those stakes sooner than later

[@iamamishiamamish8155]

Man the analysis is complicated enough and the points important enough that we don't need to further complicate it by factoring in varying win rates. It doesn't materially change the analysis anyway.

[@TheStein36]

@@aksharpatel5119Then you would call that your “observed winrate”

[@Victor-ks3sp]

This is very cool. I’m not a poker player, but am very into statistics. I do wish you’d talk more about the confidence intervals and the probabilities of the outcomes. Talking about the worst outcome of these simulations as if that’s one ”unlucky guy that could be you”, kind of downplays how the worst outcome in these examples is highly improbable. At some point you’re statistically better off staying home playing poker than going to a 9-5 job because the probability of dying in the commute to work is higher.

[@Charlie_Ses]

Nice comment. Not a stats guy, but how would you work out the probability of the worst (or best) case scenarios?

[@HomeStudioBasics]

This to me is absolutely the most important video I've ever seen on Poker. Bar none.

[@fiddleslayer5147]

Great information! The truth of online poker is a hard pill to swallow.

[@terencehill3972]

It makes you sometimes question how big the luck factor really is and whether it's even worth putting in that much time into studying and playing...

[@tomcads1604]

You make more when you're running good AND playing well, so studying is always a plus

[@axel8grease]

Funnily enough, more time playing = more samples = reduced standard error.

[@pob-4810]

It is worth the time dude 🤦‍♂️ You don’t think someone like Phil Ivey would profit playing hundreds of thousands of hands in the long run without studying poker? People like you look way too short sighted in the results at the moment instead of making a profit in the bigger picture

[@morten2808]

Same issue in financial trading, it basically put me of pursuing it as a career when I did my masters in finance. So many "ballers" think they are the shit in picking stocks having the smallest sample size. Imagine you can go through an entire career into retirement and not really know if you are a good stock picker or not. Also, just imagine picking an actively managed fund as a customer, not having full insights into their strategy or overall performance, many funds consists of several portfolios, and they quietly shut down the under performing ones while advertising the winners to you. It's a strange business

[@Charlie_Ses]

So basically, financial trading is purely down to luck.

[@samwisegametree]

Yep, not to mention all these possibilities exist even if you have 100+ buy ins, never check your results, and your life doesn't interfere with your roll in any way. There are so many variables which make things worse, like fear or discouragement creeping in during downswings affecting your routine and the quality of your play.

[@HomeStudioBasics]

Yup and this is especially true when you know you should make a certain play and don't. It's a killer.

[@chrisdangelo6047]

lol i started to picture the poker octopus even before u said octopus

[@LivePokerGuide]

Great video again Pete (best I've seen on this topic)! As a live player, I just wanted to add that BB/100 at 1/2 live is much higher than 16 for the best pros. It can be £30ph, which is about £105 per 100 hands, so that's over 50BB/100. I think that is definitely achievable for good pros with a TAG style in a deep stacked game and with good game selection. And if you play somewhere, where they have a cash race tournament, that might add another 12BB/100, which is just ridiculous. The only caveat is that I think standard deviation in live poker is higher than you think because of the straddles (and blind raises). If you run bad or good in straddled, pots that will have a massive impact on the observed win rate.

[@danielegarja]

I may be wrong but also the fact that in live games there are more multiway pots and you win less hands uncontested preflop should increase the standard deviation.

[@PhonyBologna]

@@danielegarja yes, but you're ignoring the fact when you get someone putting in 150 big blinds with A3o on AJ549. This significantly decreases the variance. Also flatting 3b out of position with some random 64s hand where they are check folding on 80%+ of flops, also decreases variance. My win rate is also over 50 bb / 100 live, but online its 5.5 bb / 100 at 100 NL ignition over 100-150k hands.

[@carsonnennstiel158]

Yea I’m averaging approximately 30bb/100 in 2/5 and 5/10 jax games. (Roughly 10bb/hr)

[@carsonnennstiel158]

50bb/100 at 1/2 is definitely feasible

[@Way2fast4u82]

@@PhonyBolognawhere is this game?

[@HeuristicalWorker]

I do not play poker, but have followed it for a long time. I have traded stocks, options, and futures for the last thirty 32 years, both professionally and personally, in size, volume, frequency, and risk AND your video has a great deal to say at the difficulty of the many variations of speculation and or investing. Most loose money in options and in futures is just as bad. Similarities are if not quite related if not exactly the same. Win rate or success rate, outsized loses, drawdown, and control maximum loss. I deeply thank you. David Korn, Lake Stevens WA (north Seattle).

[@davidr1620]

Probably one of the most important videos I've ever seen about poker.

[@axel8grease]

I'm a casual poker player who got recommended this video. Super interesting watch, and I could relate as a gamer who has played games like XCOM or Battle Brothers. You get to intimately know the variance

[@Chris-si4ox]

Do you ever get to the "long term" in live poker? Outcome is probably normally distributed - you get most players who are realizing ~EV but then there's a tail that are either v lucky or v unlucky

[@karlinchina]

I play live 5/T. Variance seems high, tho maybe randomly higher for me. Most months lately have been up or down 26k-32k. My biggest pots lately were cold 3betting the flop with JT on QJ9 because I thought the raiser had either a flush draw or a naked T. That was a 7k pot. Another one recently was four ways to a straddled and 3bet pot. Three checks, Button jams 1500 into 1000, I call in the sb with top pair, others fold, I hold. These are high variance spots.

[@seguren]

This is probably the most important thing for anyone who is considering becoming a pro poker player to look at. You need to know what you're getting yourself into, and decide if you can handle the stress of running bad. If not, then poker might not be for you.

[@terencehill3972]

"If luck weren't a factor, I would win everytime" - Phil Hellmuth

[@uns70ppabl35]

Im not sure if the deviation is necessary smaller at live games. Especially in local casinos. As a live player I can tell you that its very important to run good when there is a big fish on the table. You need to be able to be on his table at a first place which often is also relying on chance. Also games are very different one from another. Deepness of the games changes, stakes are changing, sometimes there are stradels etc... Overall running good or bad in the bigg pots can change a lot in a 10-20k hands sample. Im speaking from personal experience.

[@andersnielsen6044]

You can also ask the question: If you do not know this basic info about the game, then why on earth do you even play? It is like playing soccer and not knowing how many players is playing on each team or not knowing the offside rules :D

[@godfreypercy5190]

[@aliyukolo9295]

I had heard of a lot of investing with Mrs Jane and how good she is, please how safe are the profits?

[@jennifermontague3213]

Jane was my hope during the ‘bear summer’s last year. I did so many mistakes but also learned from it, and of course she is also my number source when it comes to crypto and TA.

[@luckyree3841]

I know Mrs. Jane too and I have been trading with her, she is such an amazing woman and her skills keep me happy all week knowing I earn $10k extra income trading with her

[@anglebarboza5829]

Her accurate singles, coupled with her sound advice and risk management techniques, have completely transformed my trading trading strategy.

[@paulgrenier5206]

I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls ! I lost so much money on crypto market but now making around $5k-$7k every week trading different crypto’s and stocks

[@CRT4Dummies]

this is a very good presentation and a good example of what makes youtube better than traditonal television. can you imagine this content being presented on the television? me neither. thanks for your effort, sir. well done.

[@dennisje2925]

Thanks. Nice video. If you scroll even down you can see a single line of 1000000 (or less). Than you really see the extreme downswings over a period when you BB/100 is quite good (like 4bb/100)

[@LIONTAMER3D]

Playstyle can adjust variance upwards or downwards. If you're on a short bankroll or in a competitive cash game, adjust downwards. If you're exceedingly well funded for the game you're in, let it rip & adjust upwards. Always adjust upwards in a tournament, especially early on.

[@TimeHandler]

You're saying we should adjust upwards in a tournament? Interesting, why is that? I've always thought it was the opposite, cash games take every edge, tournaments usually take every edge that surpasses the EV of your edge over the avg number of hands you're likely to last, which is very much a guessing game that not everyone chooses to play, but something i bare in mind none the less, and i do pretty well in tourneys. Not saying that means i can't be wrong, but can you explain?

[@LIONTAMER3D]

@itsafractal.7770 because it's easier to build up chips without even risking elimination earlier in a tournament than later. Gathering a large amount of chips later in a tournament invariably involves putting your stack on the line & I'm not in the business of winning coin flips.

[@leonidasp.3813]

Great video. I used to play with this tool very often, especially during downswings to see what's possible. Very helpful. Most players underestimate variance and they believe they're too good or too bad. At my 2/5 live sample the std deviation number I get is 360/100. Is it bit strange?

[@eugenec4746]

I see very few estimates of live std dev, and ones I do see, like in this video, are WAY too small. 360/100 does not seem unreasonable to me at all.

[@ncannavino11]

Awesome video. Showing this to all my friends who don't play poker

[@Tom_Bee_]

So i once dropped a disparaging comment on this channel regarding Jordan P. I still can't stand him. That being said, i don't want to just publish that and never contribute anything else. Reason being, this Pete guy makes a lot of sense in his poker analysis and i find him easy on the ears. If i was in the market for an irl coach, i seriously wouldn't hesitate to give Carrot Corner a go. I'm 100% confident that your courses represent good value for money. Thanks for all the free presentations, Pete. Your help has really moved my game from a feelsy, break even/small win game to a more profitable, more data driven, more thoughtful and deliberate paradigm.

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

I appreciate this comment. Not being able to stand Peterson is definitely a valid position. I too wish he would stick to what he is good at and I don’t think that is philosophy. Maybe that wasn’t your point but I vaguely recall someone leading a comment about him being terrible at philosophy. Anyways - really happy to hear that your game has been improving like this.

[@aless13260]

15bb/100 or 20bb/100 in live poker is considered quite low, in games like 1/2 15bb/hr is quite doable if you're good online over big samples

[@Jacobson-dp7gg]

Bad players use variance as an excuse to hide behind. Good players take control of it by putting in volume and improving to a higher winrate where the downswings are dampened

[@jamesforeman8028]

Agreed. Downswings are great for finding leaks, since they seem to pop up so much more

[@julio6377]

Such a grinder, im amazed!!!

[@ilarivaisanen]

The scary part is that the same applies to life. The worst luck of 1000 got cancer at the age of 6 and died, the best run of 1000 got good looks, dream job, spouse friends and family and stress free life. I wish there was less luck involved but it is what it is.

[@l0v3nul]

I suppose poker variance plays a role only if you do not have a cash out function like in some sites online right?

[@adamba99]

Your video make my day better bro i had a bad session and after watching this i understand variance better

[@kholkeholkepolke1135]

So, does variance refer to the end result, or just the initial distribution? I'm thinking it only refers to distribution of cards, like after 10 million hands you'll get boats so many times. But it probably doesnt account for how many times another boat out boats yours.?.. And, even if it does, theres no way variance can play a roll in pot amounts. So, all in all volume over variance is really just a theory?.. Or a template for distribution?..

[@brianlee1417]

So at live poker winning 15bb/100 is around 5bbs per hour?

[@blackbeardgoatjr2434]

Just finished watching the Barcelona EPT 2022 final table. Talk about variance! Craziest final table ever

[@loicgrossetete9570]

Note, this apply to many many things in life, that is why you can't look at the guy who succeed and do the same, usually they were just playing risky and got lucky

[@UnknownWarriorZz]

How would you extrapolate a proper sample size for those of us that only play live poker? I always generally thought hours was the best metric for a live poker player and was told 2000 hours was a decent sample size? You can’t possibly get this many hands in playing live.

[@SpiteBellow]

You're very informative and I think your accent is rad 10/10 video. I've understood this for a long time but people around me with big egos are just so naive. There's a real hubris with reg battles and the lot of them can go fight each other. I'll just be busy crushing my local live game :)

[@545coolkid]

Saving this link for all the recs who cry that online poker is rigged, no it’s literally not, table selection is important because of this, ensure you are playing with fish to minimize variance, when you play live it’s always fish so it doesn’t matter, that’s the difference, even with that you will still could still get harsh variance. so many people in poker say “online poker is rigged” mean awhile only getting 10k hands max a month. although, chances are if they are saying online poker is rigged, they are way more of a fish than they realize as well. Great video

[@lance862]

You need to look into large field MTT tournament variance...

[@Petty-Cash]

Game selection has become almost impossible online. Yeah weekends are good, evenings are busier than afternoons but that's about it. No site lets you table or seat select any more.

[@harstar12345]

I haven't watched any of the video yet, but having looked at variance before it really is shocking how crazy you can run (good or bad) without any control, 9 max 200bb poker is the only game people would be comfortable playing 😂

[@DoCuOrange]

Do you have any thoughts on reducing variance by managing your stack size? I.e. it is obviously better if you are convinced you are a winning player to build up your stack as high as you can in any session, however this does increase variance (when you run your KK into AA on a 3 bi pot for example). Asking for a friend, obviously :D

[@DeeteeeGrowth]

Are you including rakeback when you talk about bb/100? Because it can add multiple bb/100 to your winrate and is usually variance free

[@andrewfraancis]

Rake is also variance free in general which he didn’t factor in

[@andytan4055]

Do u add rakeback to the variance calculator? If i am earning 3bbs pre rb, and 5 bbs after rb, Which should i put for my winrate to more accurately calculate variance?

[@MaFd0n]

moral of the story: whatever you are telling yourself, you're gambling and you rely on luck.

[@losyart]

Tournaments are even more sick in terms of variance . for thousend of tournaments u might not even be at top 3 places . Its heartbreaking and soul-crushing for very long stretches at times

[@mullettkid324]

Yep, yep. None of us are chainsaw, nor do we understand what leads to a standart defiantion!

[@acehole7147]

Great video Pete - what I needed to hear too given I'm going through a rough patch atm

[@marksimpson2321]

The important things are to enjoy trying to get better at poker rather than focussing on $/€/£. Secondly, volume helps reduce variance...

[@harryharrison3476]

That's crazy. Excellent vid, must see for anyone even remotely considering going pro.

[@Endbossross]

I liked the last video you posted and I like the way you verbalize your ideas, and many of the ideas themselves. This concept does not illuminate the many real life issues a human could endure, ultimately impacting his/her win rate. Consequently, the sample of 100k hands might be altogether inaccurate as a representation of a human’s skill in the illustrated example.

[@chatanakredyt]

Do you think 8bb/100 on Rush&cash 100nl is possible for most players? Seems very hard to achieve

[@dominictang9328]

Good video. I kinda knew about variance extremes already but wish I didn't! I think the video gave a lot of emphasis on the extremes, but perhaps you could have said more about "most of the time" you'll be "somewhere here"... which is slightly winning or slightly losing. Eg what % of the time are you within 2~3BB of your 3BB win rate (whether observed or true)

[@ComradeAndrej]

How would you calculate as accurate as possible all these stuff for GG rush&cash (winrate and observe winrate wise since their rake is straight up gangsta)?

[@Bazzy13]

YohViral is exactly who I thought of when you first said about the moths 😂

[@emilecarette8993]

Why ? What you mean by moth in that context please ?

[@Bazzy13]

@@emilecarette8993 in the video, Pete talks about playing live for hours on end with your mouth open catching moths and I immediately thought of YohViral, he then said "like that YohViral guy on Game of Gold, you seen that?"

[@emilecarette8993]

@@Bazzy13 lol ok. To add my 2 cents, that same player YohViral said that there’s close to zero variance in live cash games. The reason being the winrate is so high you can’t have a huuuuuge downswing. I have to agree with him. Being a tag winning player for thousands of hours live. With a decent but no too crazy winrate. I never lost more than 10 bis. A negative month is like once a year.

[@Bazzy13]

@@emilecarette8993 I like YohViral, he's brilliant and obviously a very successful player, it's just that face he pulls 😂

[@Tom_Bee_]

Phil Ivey gets a pass bc he's Phil Ivey, but damn can he even think with his mouth closed?

[@tasoslefth8375]

The good thing is that many crushers give up on their poker career because they get crushed by variance and that many fish think they are crushers because they run like god making games very soft.

[@tomcads1604]

Speaking of game selection, what are the best sites as a lower stakes Euro player that still allow a HUD?

[@ligafftheindifferent3495]

I play a lot of video poker. This might seem unrelated, but bear with me. Yesterday, I was dealt 8c7c2d2hQs. I was playing 50 play deuces wild. The 50 play simply means that I will draw to the hand 50 times and get paid for each result. With the strong draw to straights, flushes, quads and straight flushes, the superior play is to discard only the Qs. All of this is very basic if you play video poker, but maybe not so familiar to the general public, but the correctness of what I said is really not the point. Now here is the part that applies to poker. When I discarded the Qs, I drew 50 cards (each from a different "new" deck). I did not get even ONE straight flush. There are a total of eight cards that would make a straight flush. (Jc,Tc,9c,6c,5c,4c,2c and 2s). The point.... You can run INSANELY bad.

[@rustycolon9368]

I'd also add, don't play any video poker. It's essentially a slot machine..

[@Endbossross]

We, as human beings, respond emotionally, whether we like it or not, to social situations that impact our human experience. Furthermore, social situations that influence procreation and sexual behavior conflict so strongly with cerebral exercises(eg. poker), that extreme inconsistencies in a given sample would be inevitable.

[@stu_gahtz1740]

Im playing full ring cash 1/3 500 max and im definitly pretty aggro. i just passed 500hrs. At 300 hrs i was up 20 buy ins and now im floating around even. a prospect of a coach i am talking to told me that 500 hrs in and being even is not good. Of course its not ideal but considering 10% rake and im a generous tipper i think my first 500 hrs have went pretty well. i feel like he was leveraging me to make me think i need him more. Whats your opinion? Now i want a coach either way but i thought he wouldve atleast seen hope with the sample i have. Atleast im not a losing player and ive had ZERO coaching so far only what ive learned off subscription sites.

[@andrewfraancis]

You should measure in pre rake winrate as rake is basically just a tax you pay on your play.

[@nurein3993]

best moment: the director's cut 12:20- 12:33 ... wow. "variance is insane man." hahaha. word.

[@prob_theory1751]

Good visualization and discussion.

[@terencehill3972]

Could you please also make a video about the following: I have been playing Poker for a number of years now, but my Total Winnings are always significantly below my All-in Equity Value. It doesn't converge like it should. Why?

[@tylerpayne8264]

Your red line, equity without showdown. Must be negative. And if that’s not what you’re talking about then your chart is taking out rake. Probably equity without showdown is your problem though. Not really even a problem if you’re winning anyways, some fields fold too much so your red line should be higher, and some fields show up with hands that are too weak, so your blue line will be higher.

[@terencehill3972]

@@tylerpayne8264 Thanks for your answer. But no, my question has nothing to do with the Red Line. Google All-in Equity. Cheers

[@motitei97]

In spin n go community there are expected value deals which protect you from variance. If you are in downswing you receive money if you are running hot you give them money according to your chipev= equivalent to bb/100 (it's a predictor of how much money you expect to make) and BOOM we eliminated the variance out of equation. Why is not in cash game community ev pools?

[@rustycolon9368]

There's no such thing as downswing or running hot. It's all just variance and randomness in the cards that are being flipped. It's the same as the 'hot hands' fallacy in basketball. Every single hand is totally 100% independent from the last hand.

[@motitei97]

@@rustycolon9368 Ok, you didn't understand my point. There are ev pools in spin n go format (if you are winning 3.3bb/100 you get paid exactly 3.3bb/100 no matter if the variance it's in your favour or against you) and my question was why there is no ev pool in cash game.

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Just because a stretch of variance is random doesn’t mean we can’t attribute descriptive terms to one. Calling a sample a ‘downswing’ is like saying ‘that roulette wheel has been red 11 times out of 13’ it’s random but still describable.

[@rustycolon9368]

@@CarrotCornerPoker If your description implies future events based on previous ones it doesn't matter what you call it - it's flawed.

[@QuickPoker]

My lifetime hourly rate at 1 dollar 2 dollar live poker is 20$ an hour. So 10 BB per hour 🎉. What does this equate to as bb per 100 hands? Hard to quantify 😅

[@NC7491]

Assuming 30 hands per hour, it's 33BB/100.

[@carsonnennstiel158]

In live games you can if you game select well, can win 30bb/100 but that’s also could because I’m playing in some super juicy Jacksonville live games. But if I’m not averaging 10bb/hour it’s a failure.

[@carsonnennstiel158]

And this is 2/5-5/10 stake level.

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Yep again I’d stress that love games can play bigger than the $ value of the big blind which inflates the bb/100 number. Game selection also help. I’ve coached a live player with a 32bb/100 winrate over a really big sample so it’s possible but this is with deeper stacks and bigger pots (sometimes a straddle literally doubling the stakes)

[@The.Harsh.Truths]

Anyone who is honest with themselves knows that poker is basically gambling, but with a slight edge if you’re good. The entire poker community talks about poker like it’s chess so that it encourages more people to play. In any given night, you’re flipping a weighted coin with a 55% chance of winning if you’re a good player. You can lose on that 45% for months and months before it evens out.

[@rustycolon9368]

Absolutely. Selection bias is also very real, meaning that the 'pro' poker players who tout GTO and other 'strategies' are the ones who win, while maybe 100,000 other players who use the exact same strategy fail and lose.

[@The.Harsh.Truths]

@@rustycolon9368 right. I just find it obnoxious how the entire professional poker community and adjacent brands all collude in this false narrative that poker is mostly a skill game. Yes, over hundreds of thousands of hands, your EV will start to surface through the noise, but you may have blown out your bankroll before then. I hate how poker pros and those interviewing them will talk about the final table performance they just had like if they played a little better they’d finish 3rd not 4th. Like no bro, that AA vs KK where you doubled up is where all your gains came from. Then the AK vs AQ where you were all in pre but villain flopped the Q is where you busted. Your “skill” and “read” in the one medium to small pot where you hero called or hero folded made you an extra few chips that got washed out in the coolers anyway.

[@diegozavaglia2969]

Having 55% is quite close to printing money, same as casino games do :)

[@mattsmith9968]

8bb at RNC? can you give me number for your dealer?

[@adean4146]

how do you decide what your winrate is?

[@vicious7462]

Great, great video! "Dealing with Variance"The game outside the game. Think the usual on most poker coach websites is the 30k hand chart with about 20 - 30 BI upswing. Absolutely meaningless well said. Also side note the best online player of the last 2 years (in terms of significant amount of hands played and then winrate)has made 72k since Jan 1st 2021 and he clears the next best by about 20k. To put some perspective on how difficult it is😁

[@jrm8206]

Dont forget to add 150k in rakeback

[@harley-zh3jk]

What do you mean by 72k ? Money or hands ?

[@stupidguy97]

"the best online player of the last 2 years (in terms of significant amount of hands played and then winrate)has made 72k since Jan 1st 2021" Source? If true, it suggests that online poker is a waste of time now except as a hobby.

[@tasoslefth8375]

@@stupidguy97 not really if you live in a third world country

[@vicious7462]

@@stupidguy97 there are people who have won more in terms of actual dollars who obviously play on higher limits but their number of hands played in a 3 year period are only between 200 - 300k hands which is small in comparison the guy I'm on about primarily plays 100nl on stars and has played 1.35million. Smarthand gives the details

[@nurein3993]

i was not only shocked (dab me up chris), distressed, but also rather fascinated and it wasn't suggested at all.

[@aznpokering4184]

Live winrates and standard deviations are much higher than the video suggests. In my 3500 hour sample of live poker (took me just about 2.5 years), my winrate is well over 100 bb/100, but the SD is also like 500+ bb/100

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

My guess would be that you play in a game with straddles, deep stacks, big preflop sizes and huge edges that actually plays a lot bigger than the technical value of the big blind. In this case the true stakes of the game are 3-4 times the size of the bb value and so the bb/100 is a bit misleading for an online player who is used to 2.5x opens, 100bb stacks and no straddles.

[@moeyoutubechannel]

​@@CarrotCornerPoker😅

[@aznpokering4184]

@@CarrotCornerPoker Spot on

[@Johnny-cz2wv]

So you're saying you won 1000 buyins over 100k hands? Lolwat

[@aznpokering4184]

@@Johnny-cz2wv Not buy-ins, but tens of thousands of BBs yes, I started off playing 1/2 buying in for $500, and currently play 2/5 and 5/10 where I will buy in between $1500 to $2500

[@daniellu8662]

Yeah people show some small samples like 25k hands like it means anything

[@TheMarceloSilva]

Thank you very much, can you do the same video comparing Cash and MTT players? appreciate!

[@chrisdangelo6047]

just a short rant i remember back in 2014 i played about 300k hands of 5nlzoom on stars and won 10.5 bb/100 never really had a big downswing i came back in about 2022 played the same pool and stake with a winrate of 2bb with big downswings along the way boy its much harder than it used to be

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Big winrates like 10.5bb/100 are certainly far rarer now but I don't think they're totally impossible with the right game selection. What you've experienced though is the immense volatility of a small winrate. The soultion? Keep getting better.

[@insomnyteq]

Octopus grinder is my spirit animal

[@isildurany2888]

count me in !

[@jasonhounsell3297]

Double digit win rates are a given live. One the home games that ran last year, I had a 70bb/100 winrate. It was ridiculous. 15x opens, 5 ways almost everytime in a 40x 3B pot. If you don’t get paid every single time you have value you have been robbed.

[@Sp33dyBeanz]

ive always said that to be a winning poker player you have to have variance on your side even if youre a winning player. some amazing players never make it

[@stu_gahtz1740]

Also this was very insightful. Great video. Thanks. 💪

[@thepokergod1980]

Can anyone advise how to calculate BB/100 for live cash?

[@angrybeaver2204]

Early prediction: This will be the Pete Clarke YT video that finally goes viral. Real talk and we can all relate. Thanks for this one.

[@mattstieg5388]

🤓 Taking notes of my big hands has really helped provide me perspective. Also notes on mt picket pairs...ex - my last 6hr session 0/3 w KK lost to: flopped A, turned 2 outer boat to under pair, and rivered gutter w flopped set (stacks in on turn). Good sizing and folded when they hit (they showed). Also 1/14 pocket pair set mining that saw flop (all 9s or under). AA once, little action. Very active tables & wasn't passive or spewing, but missed a lot. I saw negative variance, and losing $850 (< 3 buyins) at 1/2 doesn't mean I played terribly. There were ups n downs in session as well before the ultimate cash out. I hope we don't hear this and think results dont matter or become nihilistic. Also, most of us wont play this many hands.

[@Charlie_Ses]

I'm just a recreational player averaging about 50,000 hands a year online. That said, I've studied quite a lot and my game is up to a decent, but not great, standard. I play on Party Poker, and the in-house software rates my game as Super Pro, if that means anything to anyone. That said I generally struggle online, and especially as my game has advanced the variance has gotten wilder, and more difficult to deal with. I play 25nl and 50nl. I play only 50,000 hands a year because I don't like to multi table, and I like to think about my game as I play. But in essence this says I can play a decade and run bad, which really puts me off the game, though it does make me accept that I should only play for fun really, and not have any expectations of profiting over that time. A dumb endeavour, but treat it as a hobby I guess. That said my live results have been much, much better, though I don't put a lot of volume in. I have done very well live over the last year or so, sometimes you are just printing money, and I have always been shlt scared about the forthcoming -30BI downswing over a year, as I've had such downswings online. But this maybe shows that playing live, with a good enough edge, that that may not happen. But essentially people can play entire live poker careers and not know if they are actually any good or not. Madness.

[@webguy943]

Yup. Dont play online. Its rigged anyways

[@diogomoco2126]

Can you make One for mttta?

[@joffreyparent3132]

[@seanof30306]

Learning to understand variance has made a HUGE difference in my game, and it's so easy! When I'm having bad variance, I just call. When I'm having good variance, I raise.

[@albertog3285]

Playing 300bb deep live cash game 8max hasn't higher std dev. Than online?

[@nowwela]

Saulo said that he has seen 80 buyin downswing in confirmed winning player

[@DeCeroaHeroeChess]

That is just sick.

[@il2626]

good player of 200nl (martaimrko he was at 10bb/100 for a good stretch) and he went on 65bi downswing too

[@FastPitch357]

I wouldn’t care if you were losing in practice. All that would mean to me is that your mental game/performance under pressure is bad. Your content and knowledge speaks for itself

[@daviddivad777]

then play 1 million hands! you will def have a crusher's graph

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Will you make all of the carrot corner content for me while I do that? Or should I just stop feeding the goats 😀

[@daviddivad777]

@@CarrotCornerPoker fair. but nobody said it had to be done quickly

[@claudiakoning]

No, it's not higher than i personally think. I am playing tournaments, sngs and spins since about 20 years and had several 500-1200 Buyin Downswings. A 200-300 buyin downswing is even relatively common. Happens almost every year.

[@bigbear123ms]

thanks for the video i thought live poker would be higher variance cause u play fewer hands

[@SimonStaxPoker]

What would you recommend if you're always at the bottom of the variance graph 😂😂😂

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Coaching

[@bazzza4613]

Fantastic video. best cocah out there.

[@Dodanos1]

3bb/100 variance sucks.. Thats why i always stuck with micros

[@L4Y_SP]

i think u just saved my sanity

[@mikemcgovern8990]

I heard about this on your podcast the other day and was horrified to see how brutal it can. Just need to grind out 10000000 hands to ensure a decent return 😂