Preakness 2024 Wet Track Analysis: Mystik Dan, Just Steel, Seize the Grey, Uncle Heavy

In this horse racing handicapping video recorded on 5-15-24, Jarrod Horak shares his 2024 Preakness Stakes wet track analysis. The field has been reduced by one following the scratch of morning line favorite Muth for trainer Bob Baffert.
#preakness 2024 field: 1 - Mugatu (20-1), 2 - Uncle Heavy (20-1), 3 - Catching Freedom (6-1), 4 - Muth SCRATCHED, 5 - Mystik Dan (5-2), 6 - Seize the Grey (15-1), 7 - Just Steel (15-1), 8 - Tuscan Gold (8-1), 9 - Imagination (6-1).
Kentucky Derby 2024 final order of finish: Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Catching Freedom, T O Password, Resilience, Stronghold, Honor Marie, Endlessly, Dornoch, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Domestic Product, Epic Ride, Fierceness, Society Man, Just Steel, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch
The 2024 #kyderby was the 12th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4, and Mystik Dan nipped Sierra Leone by a nose, with Forever Young another nose back in third. Catching Freedom and T O Password completed the Super High 5.
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[@nataliegoldman726]

Wet track, I'm going Uncle Heavy. Love an underdog.

[@JarrodHorak]

I think some others have the same idea. Uncle Heavy has gone from 20-1 morning line to 7-1 currently. He won't mind the footing and you just know that Ortiz Jr. will give him every chance to succeed.

[@charlesbadrock]

Great point with the comment a wet track at one place may not be the same as a wet track at another place I'm not picking Mystic Dan to win but if it's an off track that moves him up even more he got a picture perfect trip in the Derby and as you know many trips wins races I'm picking CF 3H to win the Preakness but since Muth got scratched that's cuts his value in this race right now I don't know if I'll bet the Preakness or not the 9H will be out in front right from the gate he will attempt to wire the field he's not without a shot but I do see CF running him down in the stretch to win Best of Luck

[@JarrodHorak]

Nice analysis of the Preakness. I agree that the 9 will be in front and the 3 definitely has the ability to run him down. If Mystik Dan wins, it would generate a few more weeks of excitement, and I can live with that.

[@italianwaterice9594]

the surpise entry of Catching Freedom makes me think Cox has him in tip top shape

[@JarrodHorak]

I totally agree. They talked about skipping the Preakness and targeting the Belmont, or skipping Preakness and Belmont and targeting the Matt Winn/Haskell. Cox wheeling back in two weeks has to be viewed as a positive.

[@blabberer8950]

Have you seen the wet track at Pimlico this week? Nobody is closing. I think the wet track favors Mystic Dan but we'll see.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@blabberer8950 The track was fast on Thursday and early-pressing types held the edge. The track was fast again on Friday with the edge to early-pressing types. The Preakness Day track condition is completely different. Rain on Saturday and the track is wet and listed as good but is probably closer to muddy. We will have to see how the Saturday track plays as the card progresses. Right now it is cloudy and we will have to see if we get a drying track or if more rain comes in. Still a 30% chance of rain today.

[@italianwaterice9594]

@@blabberer8950 such a broad statement.... you Mystic Dan fans really are searching for any hope

[@blabberer8950]

@@italianwaterice9594 Fan? I am more of a Fan of the 8 but in this condition I like the 5 after what I saw at Oaklawn in Feb. I put 1000 to place on Mystic Dan. I am a handicapper, not a fan boy. You seem to be the fanboy who took my post way too personally.

[@paulv7554]

Well, I'm not quite as dismissive of Mystic Dan as I was when they first announced him for the Preakness. I'm leaning toward the 3/8 exacta but I'm still noodling the idea of Mystic Dan taking the first two legs.

[@JarrodHorak]

Mystik Dan suddenly has two things going for him. (1) Likely winner Muth scratched. (2) The track will probably be wet. I would not mind him winning as the buildup to the Belmont and the possibility of a Triple Crown would be exciting and good for the sport. I agree that the 3 and 8 are solid contenders and could easily finish 1-2. Baffert's remaining entrant might be lone speed and could be long gone if they leave him alone on the front end. The winner should be 3, 5, 8, or 9 depending on trips, race flow, and rider strategy.

[@paulv7554]

@@JarrodHorak I agree wholeheartedly. 3, 5, 6, 9.....the exacta and perhaps even the trifecta will be filled out by some combination of those. Mystic Dan gives me the Fierceness vibe a little. Is he going to be off or on? I feel like Tuscan coming in fresh is almost certain to run a good race and CF is very reliable, albeit not the best pace scenario. Since you are not dismissing the 9, I'm going to give him a second look.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@paulv7554 I feel as though the 9 is capable of wiring the field if they leave him along early. I don't see him stalking and winning, and Dettori probably knows that as well. The outside draw might allow him to ease over and seize control early. That is his best and possibly only shot to win. A loose leader on a wet track can be dangerous, if it plays out that way for him. The pace is a bit murky if that scenario does not happen.

[@paulv7554]

@@JarrodHorak I think I'm going to bet as if that scenario with 9 loose on the lead does not happen. If it does happen, I'll probably lose

[@JarrodHorak]

@@paulv7554 It is hard to cover every scenario. He may shake loose and weaken anyway. My advice is to play the horses you like and bet the race the way you see it. If you are right great. if you are wrong, so be it. There will be other races to bet.

[@thomaslovell401]

3,5,7 box

[@roblegg3983]

Jarrod, I think you due to pick a winner. You were off in the Derby and the Peter Pan - *But so was I. So I think you due to hit the win pick. I really think the #8 or #3 will win, even on a wet track.

[@JarrodHorak]

That Derby beat was ultra-tough to take. Sierra Leone was clearly best. Thought I had the Peter Pan with The Wine Steward but he could not quite hold on. I did hit a nice exacta with my second choice Antiquarian, and bet Sierra Leone across the board in Derby so that softened some of the sting. Now it is time to get back on the beam with a top choice winner. 3 and 8 both look poised to run quality races in the Preakness.

[@roblegg3983]

@@JarrodHorak I know you will be all over Sierra Leone in the Belmont.....he could ROMP like Point Given did. BUT will Fierceness go back to his reg. pattern and fire a big one?

[@JarrodHorak]

@@roblegg3983 You are right that i will probably go right back to Sierra Leone in the Belmont. I would like to see Fierceness bounce back next time. He is brilliant at times and can beat anyone on his best day.

[@silosvince]

I originally was going to dismiss Mystik Dan because of his trainer not too sure about him going in. I would think McPeek would have him in good form if he s going to run. To Mystik Dan's credit he was the only horse close to the pace setters that stayed. A few more feet and Sierra Leone/Forever Young might have gotten to him. I rerun the video several times ..... Catching Freedom would not have caught Mystik Dan that day. Just steel, Fierceness, Track Phantom, Epic Ride and Stronghold all faded. 23, 46 and change ....Was that too fast to compromise the pacesetters? Did the bumping in the beginning compromise Just Steel? Is Tuscan Gold any better tomorrow than when Catching Freedom beat him last they met at the LA Derby? Would Imagination's pedigree hamper him from beyond 1 1/8? I bet on him on top of Stronghold one way. So, who do we have? Imagination in front, Just Steel, Tuscan Gold, Seize the Grey just right behind, putting enough pressure on Imagination. Mystik Dan, Uncle Heavy and Mugatu stalking, Catching Freedom waiting, will have to go around everybody. Imagination will be stubborn, will likely hold 2, 3 4 spot. He might wire the field if Tuscan Gold and Just Steel will give him a breather. Dettori smarts might be the key. If Imagination cannot hold on, it will be between Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom or Tuscan Gold. This small field will favor Catching Freedom.

[@JarrodHorak]

It looks like four likely scenarios. (1) Imagination wires the field. (2) Mystik Dan duplicates his Southwest/Ky Derby trips. (3) Tuscan Gold moves forward and wins in 4th start just like Cloud Computing and Early Voting. (4) Catching Freedom shadows Mystik Dan and outfinishes him as the best closer. I can see any of those things happening depending on race shape, track bias, and rider decisions.

[@silosvince]

@@JarrodHorak. Thank you Sir. Quite true on those 4 scenarios. Plus racing luck. Hehe . In my heart I have not given up on Catching Freedom. My wallet says give Just Steel a chance to shine. I am confused. I would have loved for Muth to win but no Muth. Imagination was not good enough to beat Stronghold, yet I hope he would wire the field. That is why I am confused. CF, JS, TG, MD, and I. Must be a way to bet them. And make a few dollars

[@JarrodHorak]

@@silosvince Catching Freedom is interesting. Cox did not have pressure to run back in two weeks like McPeek, but he did it anyway and that has to be viewed as a positive move. Just Steel can run with these on his best day and will be a price. I am using him in some exotics for sure.

[@johnmartin7158]

@@JarrodHorak. You were nearly bang on with your picks or bang on. Well done, Sir. Hope you won a lot of money on the race. Cheers NZ.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@johnmartin7158 Thanks for watching and commenting. Unfortunately, I did not have the right wagering combinations and did not make money in the Preakness this year. I keyed in on Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom and played them down the board in the trifecta, along with some other wagers. Also had some tickets with Mystik Dan on top. I used Seize the Grey in some wagers but mostly in the underneath slots. He ran a bit better than anticipated.

[@blabberer8950]

Sloppy track. Give me Mystic Dan all day long. He is bred for the slop. I am probably going to bet 500 to place on Mystic Dan.

[@JarrodHorak]

Wet conditions can be tricky to decipher because all wet tracks are different. If you like Mystik Dan, you are looking for him to duplicate his muddy Southwest romp. He is one of four logical win contenders in the 8-horse field. Good luck with your Preakness wagers.