Predicting Crisis from Historical Cycles | Neil Howe & Ben Hunt w/Dr. Richard Smith

Neil Howe and Ben Hunt in conversation with FSC Chairman Dr. Richard Smith.
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Howe's new book, The Fourth Turning is Here, is a captivating new vision of historical cycles, and what they have to say about our current crises. Hunt, the founder of Epsilon Theory, is among our most vital cultural and economic thinkers.
With Dr. Smith, they cover:
- The four-part cycle of American history and the personality types it generates
- The cycle-driven push and pull between community and individuality
- Where we are in the cycle today (and what it means for the market)
And much more...
This is a big day for Cycles TV. Howe and Hunt's insight on cycles are deeply informed by history and decades of research, a well of knowledge that comes through in full force in this discussion. Their perspectives on the role of community in historical cycles is particularly illuminating.
0:00 Intro
8:32 American history through Howe's four-part cyles
15:55 Are historical cycles "real"?
30:36 The benefits of community
39:01 How to unify a population
43:33 The four archetypes of history
45:32 What we know about 2040
54:14 The generational timetable
1:02:00 How crises come to be
1:11:28 Our duty to community
1:27:11 Investing in "the real"
Questions or comments? Leave a message in the comment section below.
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[@hopepantazis4508]

What we don’t know, we fear. This discussion provides a beautiful perspective on all that we DO know about patterns, cycles and our resiliency to weather through and emerge from the past. Thank you.

[@cstacey52397]

Incredibly grateful for all three speakers time, insights and timely discussions. Thank you 🙏🏻

[@TheDirtOrchidBlack]

"Early decisions made in a timely way can sometimes prove to be very important... we can get through with much less pain and strife than we otherwise would require."

[@wobblyuniverse]

Wonderful talk from you three gentlemen. Many thanks!

[@yeliangarcia4623]

What a gem!!! Here's why this 4th Turning might be more hectic than imagined: this video has less than 3k views

[@PeterAndrin]

What a great discussion! I was really interested in listening to the full episode I too am hopeful we can reach the springtime and get through this crisis without violence and war.

[@andreaturno4904]

Enlightening in so many level. Thank you for sharing the discussion

[@MrMarccj]

Looking forward to this one...

[@francisbacon2401]

Yes we learn best (internally) through experience but rarely step back to the big picture - cycles of impermanence.

[@timeomoney]

Uranus cycle in astrology.

[@GenX1964]

9:04 Sometimes I worry about Neil cause it's like Randy Misner of The Eagles singing "Take it To The Limit" night after night. I mean how many more of these does he have in him?

[@Travelbythought]

Uranus cycle(Uranus rules change) equals 84 years. Positions of the outer planets determine the generational character.

[@3506Dodge]

'transactionality' is not caused by technology. It's caused by different approached to new technology built on older social and cultural models and belief systems. For example, social reformists in New England or the West Coast see and use social media differently than hierarchical social traditionalists in the South.

[@francisbacon2401]

Political science is a pure oxymoron. What is politicized is corrupt.

[@3506Dodge]

What about the Second Stimulus, the Science and Chips act, the infrastructure Act, and the Inflation Reduction act. Those seem perfects example of early decisions made well.

[@ginamurray711]

I think Neil knows some scary things that he thinks it prudent not to share publicly. Listening to numerous interviews he’s done, I’m hoping he leaves little bread crumbs for motivated people who can’t afford to hire him as a consultant.

[@danesovic7585]

Interesting that Neil moved to W Virgina, the least "diverse" state. Living in a big city is probably not a very wise during the fourth turning.

[@nuki3234]

As long as machines manipulate outcomes the number of votes is not relevant!

[@adamsn06]

The boomer who is not Neil Howe doesn't understand the 4th Turning.

[@jacknaneek1681]

Howe and Hunt together? So double the empty headed narratives and triple the horse manure.

[@felicitymabudusha4761]

Graphics graph chart pls! Talk is cheap!

[@chrissanft4676]

Buy the books

[@pictureworksdenver]

The problem with generational theory as per Strauss and Howe is that by simplifying history as a series of repeated cycles played out by generational archetypes it overlooks and fails to hold to account the unique narcissism, poor stewardship and outright hubris of the massive baby boomer cohort which has so shaped the dysfunctional society we inhabit today.

[@cameronmoore2713]

How so? Neil howe often mentions the narcissism of boomers and how that is characteristic of the prophet archetype. The theory states that other generations often view prophet generations as narcissistic. The theory discusses quite extensively how prophet generations play a large role in awakenings that results in society turning away from community and order and strengthening individualism and how this weakening of public institutions and order leads to the next crisis. Neil howe has also talked about how prophet type generations like boomers often create a climate of culture wars and two competing values systems, and how they are not good at agreeing on anything and working together to accomplish things.