The Crisis Phase: The Fourth Turning Explained by Neil Howe

Renowned book author Neil Howe joins us on the channel for the first time to discuss his socio-economic theory and how it applies TODAY! The theory explores the cyclical nature of history and generational change, suggesting that society undergoes a recurring cycle of four "turnings" approximately every 80-100 years. We are now in THE FOURTH TURNING, the time of crisis.
#fourthturning #economy #crisis
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Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver
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Guest: Neil Howe, Managing Director Demography
Company: @hedgeye
Recording date: April 8th, 2024
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[@jackgoldman1]

1980. The future will be awesome. 2024, I want to go back to 1980. LOL.

[@kauaifishing1365]

Yes…no cell phones, no woke bullshit,

[@jimsummers487]

Yeah…… 3 serial killers operating up and down 1-5 simultaneously… ……and crack cocaine

[@DisEnchantedPersons]

When money is everything, there is no connection. Money and morality don't mix well.

[@mikkimikki5376]

Kai, Wow. This is great! Love and Light to each of you! 💖

[@SoarFinancially]

Thank you so much! 😊

[@Maggie-zb7gx]

If public schools are a civic institution that was suppose to create order, I am giving those up and avoiding them for my children!!

[@jamesdeininger3759]

Excellent interview! I love listening to Neil Howe

[@pnola9840]

The time flew by! So educational and insightful!

[@SoarFinancially]

Thank you, very kind. Appreciate you tuning in.

[@thehungergames8918]

Thank you guys 😃🙏👊🤝

[@SoarFinancially]

You are very welcome 🙏

[@BatmanBoss]

Excellent show 👍

[@SoarFinancially]

Thanks 🙏

[@user-ye9go7pn6s]

Like Mega-Trends, The Third Wave and other “big picture” analytic framework books of the past, I’ve found Neil’s books and this interview to be insightful and helpful in organizing and understanding the huge panorama of events, forces and dynamics we read and hear about every day. Like many other authors and public speakers lately, the answers may not be clear or easy, but sometimes, I’m happy just to be able to ask smarter questions or even just a better framework around which to organize my thoughts. Thanks for sharing your work and wisdom.

[@maxcactus7]

Absolute standing ovation for this convesation/dialog! Utterly wonderful exchange - brillantt work on both sides of the table!!

[@SoarFinancially]

Thanks so much! Thats very kind. Appreciate you tuning in.

[@MrMarccj]

Great interview Kai, well done. Neil is sooo interesting but, the most interesting was a comment you made at the end, that is, passive investing leads to a misallocation of resources. That blew my mind!

[@SoarFinancially]

Glad you enjoyed it! Thanks for tuning in.

[@ionagibbons9906]

I live in the U.K. but can identify with everything that is being discussed by generational changes. Me and my children do message everyday to share and discuss but I think the reason why this seems more possible is because I think the generational parenting style I grew up with was more about fitting in and I went to Art college and was seeking the individualised way to see society and I didn’t find safety in what looked outwardly as homogeneous expectations. I think also gen X started to self reflect therapeutically so self improvement wasn’t measured as economic success but somehow feeling like you wanted to understand yourself better. I think this mindset continues into our children who are also self reflecting and this brings more discussion openness even questions around parenting styles and by having a more discursive relationship on inner growth topics with our children is allowing us to have this platform that allows us to message every day and it feels ok to say, ‘can I have your opinion about this’ because we know or trust more that we do care about each other fundamentally not as examples of economic conformity. So I think the rise in self reflection ‘doing the inner work’ has played a big role in building family dynamics that feel family built internally constructed not societally made.

[@brian1246]

Great interview.

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks buddy

[@richardkut3976]

Excellent episode, thanks.

[@SoarFinancially]

Thanks 🙏

[@michaelwardsr6244]

Super!

[@user-bw5jr7rq9r]

He is great at looking back. I understand and appreciate their studies. It is all well considered. But I have learned that when one grasps a truth, it changes. All the efforts of their studies were for a U.S.A. on the rise. Now there is a debt mountain, the demography of an aged population, a population suffering from serious health and medical issues, and lastly a world that has no illusions about the operation of an ossified bureaucracy at odds with most of the world and its' own population. It's going to be an interesting ride.

[@glennsmith5696]

I have 5 children spanning millennial and gen Z the difference in the two generations is like a line in the sand

[@amiyalon4800]

So Amazing that you brought Neil on to the show. Big applause on that!!! I actually read his a book. listening to him in person helps makes more sense of this complex topic, so enjoyable and eye opening. Bring him on some more. And if you are already brining aboard guests such as Neil, why not bring along guests such as Yuval Noah Harari and Dr. David passig 😊

[@SoarFinancially]

Hi - thanks for watching. Appreciate the suggestions, we will look into it :)

[@adriankikes4463]

Perfect timing as I just finished the book a couple weeks ago!! 🙌🏾

[@SoarFinancially]

I have yet to order it. Thanks for tuning in 🙏

[@claashielscher7967]

Phantastic interview, very thought-inspiring. May the people wake up and overthrow their woke and treacherous governments.

[@SoarFinancially]

Thanks for the feedback 🙏

[@missedcalls]

Sorry to break it to you, but millennials are the woke ones and are also the heroes so I think there will be more woke in this future world than you think. Socialism, strong communities and a bigger state too

[@Jakethebeard]

Half of the things neil says is storytelling voodoo. The other half is solid gold.

[@jxschw]

replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman...what about how many per man?

[@UncleNiikii]

It's the same 😊

[@IvyANguyen]

37:00 - I am not surprised about this as a Millennial! We can't afford any housing and as such don't care what form it eventually takes as long as we can actually own property.

[@dwardodwardo643]

Tanks for having this type of conversation, I think it's very important. Why as a metal seller you'd do it? ;)

[@SoarFinancially]

We are not metal dealers - our sponsor is. Thanks for tuning in.

[@dwardodwardo643]

@@SoarFinancially Your focus is not in promoting metals? If you sell yourself or not. You're selling metal it's cool, don't be defensive about it ;)

[@ginamurray711]

Commenting midway through another interview to see if this host is actually able to get some actionable information out of Mr. Howe.

[@SoarFinancially]

what are you looking for? Stock tickers?

[@theceltbeserk1]

Good interview I will say, Yes...Boarder fences. My Gen X view. But I want to no part of the Socialist/Marxist views coming from younger generations.

[@ipeteagles]

It's the globalist atomizing complexes more than young people imo

[@paullilliott7565]

The whole turning concept is invaluable! This 4th is going to continue to be HELL - but I also see 4Ts as times when people are kicked awake - the more they learn, the less brutal the next 4T. I was turned off the current book by Howe's biased ignorance on Ukraine.None the less, the patterns they have found are brilliant - and the comfort that those of us still alive will have a Spring season.

[@jamesdeininger3759]

I haven’t got to the part on Ukraine yet. I’m about 1/3 of the way through. What does he say about it?

[@tomwheeler2012]

There are benefits to low growth and negative growth. Look at the Black Plague for an encapsulated snippet of depopulation. There will be more housing than people so new construction will primarily focus on replacing buildings that are beyond their useful life and cannot be rehabbed. Does construction industry collapse. No because now infrastructure which is govt or civic related construction (airports, railroads, highways, bridges, canals, ports, power plants, power distribution lines, restoring estuaries like the Chesapeake, New York and Boston, restoring wetlands, prairies, forests and rewilding. You're also looking at a renaissance in new civic buildings from stadiums to govt buildings. You'd think innovation would be slowing down but computers and Artificial Intelligence means there is still growing brainpower in technology....it's just that artificial intelligence will be replacing the people lost thru a declining population. If you look at the population decline of the Black Death and then the renaissance that happened afterward...technology did well but its focus of the technology changed...even war was reduced because there was no surplus population to send off to die. Today Russia and Ukraine war as well as the support of war in Europe shows how deeply out of touch leaders are...there is not one single country in Europe that has the surplus population that it can write off as unnecessary/surplus. There are 600,000 dead Ukrainians and probably 600,000 dead Russians and unlike past wars...that represents the loss of a century or more of growth...both countries will now have a fraction of their GDP and population once the war ends.

[@MrClark46902]

Love to see an interview with Peter Zeihan

[@user-pj1nw2hb3x]

All this cycle stuff is well known. But nothing good is going to come outta this one, because this time they have the technology. Serfdom forever more.

[@helenkessler6012]

Hello

[@SoarFinancially]

Hi 👋

[@paulginsberg6942]

Financial repression. For sure. Protect yourself and family and community if possible.

[@tababobebe7639]

Bill Strauss died more than 16 years ago. He missed out on a fourth turning.

[@johnbirman5840]

I get how inflation is an advantage to long term debt (like the USA has), But... you still have to pay interest (and at least on paper) one has to actually at some stage pay back the principle. It is better to build a bridge today at such a price - compared to building in 20 years, with today’s dollars vs tomorrow’s dollars. And present taxes - unless you get more cannot pay interest and principle. You need Inflation AND higher tax revenue. And unless more taxpayers are born or brought in via other methods to make up for this lack of demographic tax paying group, it ain’t gonna work.

[@cherylcoyote]

I've been following Neil Howe since I discovered The Fourth Turning in 2011. The book has not only informed my life and choices since then, but the accuracy of the patterns and predictions has often been shocking. It was chilling to realize that Steve Bannon has used the fourth turning ideas as his cookbook for the future of politics, not only in this country, but worldwide. As abhorent as I find Donald Trump to be, I feel a little sorry for the guy. He is the perfect stooge to find himself in the eye of the perfect storm that ends a fourth turning. I'd ask God to help us all, but God knows what we're all in for and so, unhappily, do I. In the immortal words of Dr Sidney Freeman, "Ladies and gentleman, take my advice: Pull down your pants and slide on the ice!"

[@AshleyGraetz]

Fourth turning what a lark. Your looking at the fourth fascism....

[@andywinger4197]

At 25 minutes: "... Kennedy, Rusk, Westmoreland, you kids go to Vietnam." That is a much too simplistic statement on a very complex issue. History is so interesting and nuanced. Howe's take on history is too simplistic for me. I quit listening about half way through.

[@GoodmanMIke59]

Maybe as millennial, speaking to the guy who coined the term MILLENNIAL, you should avoid being rude and not research while he's teaching you. ... Why not ask the Boomer what it means to be COURTEOUS?

[@claudiocapitao3833]

Neil Howe words: "We boomers love offending people, it was the favourite thing we did..."

[@therearenoshortcuts9868]

well the good news is we may be close to the bottom of the curve ... things will be better 10 years from now? lol

[@jianliu9420]

"predicted" lol, its just a matter of study of history and the civilization's cyclus. Shit just repeats it self if you rember long enough.

[@MrMarccj]

"history doesn't repeat but it does rythme". Whoever coined this phrase didn't understand the difference between a repeat and a rythme, that is, they are the same but the words are different. History repeats exactly but we give it different names.

[@coreytrevor5890]

USA 4% world population, 100% historical significance according to this guy so far.

[@jodooxq]

I think it's time to go our separate ways! I can't stand this collective society with omnipotent institutions and sheep for people. I do not want to share my life with third world immigrants and I don't believe in this climate change nonsens.

[@user-pj1nw2hb3x]

Agreed.

[@mehditaba6303]

4th coming!! i came 6 millions times already. Beyond my PHD.

[@paulinkster3868]

Why not send the older people to fight our wars? They've lived full lives, experienced everything & stuffed up everything through not caring about the values passed on by their decent God fearing parents! Why when there's war do they always send the youngsters who haven't even lived? What do they know about the fight that these older men are having with each other? Stop being selfish cowards you boomers & go fight for your selected Leader's cause! I dare you to be unselfish for once & do something for other generations after you!

[@davidmann2524]

You ripped this off Adam Taggart

[@SoarFinancially]

I think that is a compliment. Thanks :)

[@ClockFixer]

F J B !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@k31rifleman]

2009. Fourth turning started Muslim Barry Obama

[@MJackB]

Every time i hear this crap. Looses me like 2 min in. there is nothing profound nor revelatory at all. Totally bogus trying to create a pattern where there is none. World demographic has changed beyond measure so trying to quantify a 80yr cycle Globally amdist all the nuance is absurd

[@miguelinarodriguez6676]

This is not a new concept. “Writer Mark Twain is frequently credited with the aphorism: ‘History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.’ Which means, while details change, circumstances change, settings change, names change, similar events will essentially recycle.”

[@user-em3np4vr8c]

This guy is boring!

[@jodooxq]

All you millennials, you be you, but please do it somewhere else and leave us grown-ups in peace! We don't want your brave new world....

[@Maggie-zb7gx]

As a millennial, my brave new world I am fighting for is rather traditional. Family is everything and everything is for family. Not “women going to work” or whatever you think is so freeing and worth while. So horrible I know 🤣

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

He is so happy … his predictions are coming true .

[@user-tm8km1po6k]

😂