#388

Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End, joins The Realignment. Neil and Marshall discuss his follow up to The Fourth Turning, his 1997 bestseller that predicted America's current era of political turmoil and international disorder, how and why the crisis will resolve over the next decade, the impact of generational turnover on American history, and why today's challenges rhyme with those of the 1930s-1940s.
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0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - What did Neil see in the 90’s?
6:12 - History of previous generational “turnings”
23:38 - The 4th Turning
33:31 - What is the millennial crisis?
42:15 - Generational archetypes
56:55 - NY Times piece on Neil’s book

[@kevinmahoney1995]

I love Neil Howe. His theory is a beacon of optimism for Millennials & Gen Z. I just wish I could share it with people and have them take it seriously.

[@Jigsyboy1]

Ha. Only if the don’t mind 24 / 7 surveillance. Digital passports and tokenized “money”. Welcome to the great reset

[@thecoolestofthe834s2]

Yay western civilization is going to burn and I'm gonna have to eat rats to survive after the government burns! Yay like wtf reaction do you want

[@xLeeroycranex]

Howe + Zeihan = Map into the future

[@Sopushynskyi]

There is another guy - Peter Turchin who predicted US crisis.

[@michaelmalone7408]

It’s always a good interview when you wish for more time to hear the host and guest speak. Great work Marshall!

[@beverlychaney18]

He is very wrong. His writings take away your GOD GIVEN RIGHT OF CHOICE, AND THE ABILITY TO REASON AND TO SAY NO!! HIS WRITINGS ARE PROPAGANDA, TO MAKE PEOPLE MORE COMPLIANT AND EXCEPTENCE OF THIS EVIL.. STOP TAKING CREDIT WHEN YOU DON'T READ THE PAPER OR RESEARCH WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE PRESENT. THE FUTURE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN YET.

[@cardeldaniels7886]

I’m so very proud that a brother such as myself is having these discussions. It’s a discussion that few people of any cultural persuasion are having. Yo go bro!

[@wildregen]

@@dantech1 When people who are marginalized in a society do not know what is to come, they cannot prepare resources within their communities. You have a community, and so does the OP. Every community needs a representative, a leader- that is why race matters. Because you two are not in the same community...OP is calling that out, and is proud about it. Why would this be an issue for you specifically?

[@paigejohnson452]

@@dantech1 Got it- if black people stop mentioning race, racism will go away. Noted!

[@cliffhutson8048]

Root for the under dog yo

[@brunopadovani7347]

He is very articulate and well read.

[@Peace2all4vr]

Your bringing racism to introduce this subject almost made me cop out of this video. BUT I wanted to hear what he had to say about the Fourth Turning at this time. BTW, I listened to a LOT of videos about the FT, and none of them were introduced by people who referenced their skin color.

[@willieb.hardigan5780]

As a gen x er and as I always have done, you will have about 65 million people that will not listen to authority or “the experts” and will adapt and create solutions to the ever changing environment and turmoil we are about to face. The world is lucky to have us as we all face the unknown.

[@malapertfourohfour2112]

Really into public masturbation, aren'tcha? 😂😂😂

[@igranderojo]

unfortunately GenX will get little or no credit for their contribution. Millennials will be celebrated as the Hero Generation.

[@Spyrit2011]

@@igranderojo It's not about getting credit, it's about getting it done.

[@igranderojo]

@@Spyrit2011 spoken like a true GenX Excellent to remind me of that. Thank you

[@mikenkk1]

I read this book in 1997. As much as I enjoyed and devoured it, I'd almost forgotten it by the time the 2008 great financial crisis hit, 79 years after the 1929 crash.

[@kingcountyband]

I appreciate you mentioning Neil’s long time writing/research parter who devoted so much to this topic!!!! Well done! Lots of people just rush over that stuff but you made sure it was not just swept away in the intro and question asking process. Thank you!

[@advocate1563]

Marshall you are on fire at the moment. Another great interviewee. Thank you from the uk

[@juliepepin6220]

I am thoroughly enjoying this interview. And, as a Gen X'er, I wonder where we are in the conversation--skipped over again. 🙃 I'm wondering if we are the lost generation of our time period, like slack tide between high and low tides when the change pauses.

[@bigtinyhomeadventurebigtin5201]

We got screwed. As usual.

[@doodedoodotdotdeedooyeah]

We'll be the heroes who save society.

[@brendamartin3444]

Yes gen x is the lost generation…

[@77Tadams]

Honestly, a gen X here. I think we are going our own way really. I was born in 77 and my husband in 78. We do our own businesses because we can't stand working for boomers and we can't stand hiring millennials. I would rather hire boomers to do the boring tasks because they don't complain as much as a millennial. Gen Z seems bored with everything and honestly don't want to deal with them. So, please let us keep being the forgotten generation. I don't want any attention!

[@TheAlexa6]

We are the best generation. Caught between selfish and insufferable boomers and millennials, lol.

[@neurologicalworms]

As a millennial I also find this to be a positive outlook. Things look insane in our country and world right now. Looking at it in retrospect to the cycles of history and generational attitudes makes it all feel a lot more regulated in a sense , rather than purely chaotic.

[@daltanionwaves]

I agree that it feels less like it's completely out of our control. But at the same time, it makes it seem even more likely that we are going to have to deal with a major crisis. Not a warmup crisis like in 2008 or 2020. But something that will actually be consequential for most people. But still I think Gen Z will have it harder than us, because they will be the least capable. As spoiled as we were, Gen Z grew up without even having to learn how to lose at sports, or finish their homework... It was still possible to go hungry in the 90s. And the 90s might have been as close as you can get to a color blind society. The US has only become more racist each decade since. The things that Gen complain about, reminds me of that spot right before the end of all great empires. When the decadence is at its peak, and culture is still coasting downhill from the great wealth achieved by the hard work and suffering of past generations. The culture loses its values and begins to fail to take care of its old people, and at the same time lowers the age of consent to allow explicit relationships with children. It's strange that that is even a reoccurring feature of the cycles of empires but it is. For whatever reason. It does seem like the boomers will have been the generation that started the fires that will burn everything down. And we'll be the first generation that will have to start rebuilding society after it finally collapses at some point here in the next 20 years or so

[@muffinland]

I just pray our final crisis is a toe-dip into authoritarianism, and not a great power war like the last 4th turning.

[@timetraveller4116]

It just sucks when you die young in a turning😅

[@thefamilydog3278]

⁠​⁠@@daltanionwavesI turned 45 this year, right on the cusp of Gen X & Millennial, so I think I have a good perspective on this and I have to disagree. I don’t see how you think Gen X was somehow more spoiled or didn’t have to learn how to lose. I felt like I was in the last cohort that DID have to lose, and the last to be told that the world doesn’t give a shit about your problems. We were also the last generation to be left home alone before 10 years old and have it not be considered child abuse. I feel like the kids 5-10 years younger than me were the ones who saw the rise of helicopter parenting, getting participation trophies, etc…I could go on but I’m already getting too long winded for the KZbin comments section lol Just wondering what the basis is for your opinion, since I basically lived the opposite of what you’re saying in many respects?

[@BigJFindAWay]

The Boomers didn’t start it but they sure as hell escalated it like crazy. Where the Boomers screwed up was in thinking they could change the basic nature of society, that you could live freely without accountability, that you could spoil your kids and they’d love you for it, that you could engage in short term gratification and everything would be fine. That’s where the Booners really screwed us all over. But… The Silents neglected their kids and let them run wild because for the Silents everything was about your work and you had to always work. And the GI generation, greatest generation thought they screwed up big time by creating suburbia and all the isolation, lack of community cohesiveness, and sterility that comes with it. And because the GI Generation were not the ones controlling the purse strings at the time when suburbia got started some of the blame goes to the Lost Generation too because they were too caught up in parting to realise and provided the funding for the building of suburbia. And the Missionary Generation screwed up by promoting activist government that was supposed to be able to fix everything and engineer society. And before them the Imperial Generation were content to just let government manage things.

[@herknorth8691]

There's a lot of details that don't make sense to me: I get how the Great Depression and WWII would be a catalyzing event for the GI Generation in their youth, but why would the 2008 financial crisis be an appropriate allegory for the Millennials' Crisis? As a Millennial, I remember looking at the '08 Crisis and thought "Huh, good thing I don't own any stocks or property or I'd be hurting right now!" and that was pretty much the end of it. I had heath problems then that were of much greater concern to me at that time than something happening with the value of things that I didn't own and couldn't imagine being able to afford. Is the current "Hero" generation not supposed to do anything heroic until late in their lives? That doesn't seem to be what was said in the book. Painting the 90's as an era of individual liberty also doesn't ring true to me. Laissez faire societies/governments don't do things like the Waco siege, for example. By the way, Clinton was a Baby Boomer who presided over that event. As far as Boomers not really caring about taking and holding power, how does one explain politicians like Biden, Schumer, Feinstein, and Pelosi who have done exactly that for amazingly long periods of time? I'm not saying Howe is wrong, but I'm saying that I certainly don't understand some of the points he's making. I kind of wish that someone would get him to flesh out some of the quick points that he makes in many interviews and then just moves on, leaving me scratching my head.

[@HenryBenedictUSA]

Covid is the appropriate allegory for the beginning of the Millennial Crisis. What happens next I’m not so sure, but it feels like we’re headed for a significant conflict within the next 1-10 years. I think Covid was the catalyst for an awakening within the population about what it would take to be a “hero” since being one requires great sacrifice and inner strength.

[@marygee3981]

I agree. But I did enjoy listening to his thoughts. Interesting.

[@emknight84]

The 2008 crisis robbed a lot of millennials of their future before they ever even got started. I think we are in our 3rd or 4th once and a lifetime financial disaster and counting.

[@patricknachtigall3426]

I think Howe is right. It's not that the Financial Crisis unleashed immediate chaos. But that was the event that started leading toward a white-underclass, and one that became politically active within a year or two. It eventually morphed into MAGA, which, speaking non-politically, is rooted in total selfishness, anger, and that famous 60's Boomer dualism---embodied by a Trump--the quintessential boomer, or rather, a boomer caricature come to life. That election following 8 obama years, has put class, race, the rich-poor divide, and the urban and rural divide on such a path of division, that we now speak about the possibility of a Civil War. As for the politicians you mentioned, they are all part of the generation of my parents....50's kids that were too old to serve in Vietnam and already had families by Woodstock. By that point, Biden already had a family and lost his wife and child in a car accident..he wasn't hippying around. As for Clinton and Waco---Clinton and the 1994 Freshman class of Republicans were the ones that ushered in the dominant boomer years we are still living in today. They were not about ideology..they were about selfish expediency. Compared to Trump, Clinton looks like Mother Teresa, but back in 1992, it was shocking to see the entitlement and audacit of Bill and Hillary. And the total demonization of the left (ironically), by the Boomer-led Republican Party. Once George W. Bush (Greatest Generation) left the stage, the boomer dualism and constant outrage political scene began. I do agree that it seems in the book that the millenials were supposed to rise in their youth......my take on that is that all of the previous generations died much earlier. Today, not only are boomers not going away or dying (see all of Congress), but they can refuse to give over power well into their 70's and beyond, which was previously unheard of since most died by 72.

[@karouselkar3149]

Biden and Pelosi were born years before boomers.

[@stevebarrera7513]

Thanks for this great interview and great questions asked for Neil to discuss his theory.

[@cheeseman417]

Neil Howe is the best! Thanks for hosting him on your channel. I think the generational theory as far as the individual's experience, really only works or makes sense if you are part of the same age group and your parents, grandparents, etc. are part of their respective generations, so for example, if a first wave Gen x'er had a kid at 17 or 18, their actually part of the same era or if you have parents that are 40 years older, the at home family dynamic will be very different than what's typically experienced.

[@neurologicalworms]

Can you reword this? I'm really interested in what you have to say but I'm struggling to understand. I think you are saying that we are molded by our parents and their generational attitude. So if my parents were 20 years older than I am than my attitude towards the world will be shaped much differently than if my parents were 40 years older than I. Right? Interesting.. I am 32, so I am at the age of mothering young ones. I have two children ages 3 and 5. I feel like in past generations the woman all entered motherhood within a few years gap of one another. In my experience woman are having children within a gap of like 12 years. Meaning that my peers are all very inconsistent with one another in their motherhood journey. I know 40 year old woman having their first and 28 year old woman feeling that they are running out of time. Half of woman are saying they want children but keep claiming they aren't ready. A lot of the millennials will be raising young children in their 50's...... I wonder how that will impact. On another thought though- it's almost like a nature vs nurture debate. How much of our generational attitude develops based on our parents vs our experiences within our societal /political cliimate? If I am 13 years old than my culture and peers group influence are that of other 13 year Olds. It doesn't matter how old our parents are or who was raised by grandma....the strength of the peer climate is most persuasive.

[@shazamshazamshazam696]

But there will always be a mean to which the influential majority will belong. However, extremely oppressive governance will corrupt the influence of the mean.

[@raymond_luxury_yacht]

Yeah I'm a late 60s child and had kid late. His values and what we teach him are based on my growing up which is a very different time to those younger parents with kids the same age. I'm always wondering how this affects my kid and what impact that has on those around him, and how they impact him.

[@deirdremacdougall8415]

Thank you Marshall a excellent interview with Neil Howe.

[@ginaclifford6916]

Bobby Kennedy is actually speaking the truth to the American people. Listen to some long form conversations with him, not what the mainstream media says. Just listen to his conversations!

[@antonburren336]

💯 and I'm NOT a boomer! Please have him on the show so the viewers can see that he is in no way into conspiracy theories. He's one of the few honest men brave enough to throw his hat in a corrupt political system.

[@hparkindc]

please don't...

[@jameswilkerson4412]

You mean the anti-science? The ‘COVID was engineered to hurt certain ethnicities’?

[@vulgarprophet2689]

I don't agree with some of RFK Jr policies but he is sincere. I haven't gotten that far into the video yet are these guys saying that Pfizer didn't pull any shenanigans?

[@jameswilkerson4412]

@@vulgarprophet2689 if by ‘sincere’ you mean ‘sincerely ignorant and willfully conspiracist’ sure.

[@ericmetts2289]

First time ever hearing about Neil Howe and his concepts. Gotta say. It is mind blowing. We're right smack dab in the middle of a fourth turning that is about to climax.

[@juergenernst1320]

The fourth turning is a classic. Can't believe it's new to a lot of folks

[@patricknachtigall3426]

I've heard Neil Howe interviewed tons of times since 1997. This was the best job by a host that I've ever seen. The host is clearly very well-read like Howe. Very impressive! Awsome job!

[@freda7436]

Very interesting interview... I think my worldview just experienced a 5 degree shift to correct for parallax. Thank you, Neil Howe and, as always, Marshall.

[@rodneycaupp5962]

This could have been , "Just another video". This guy is bringing it all out. Very awakening truths. Very scary truths. Interviewer is doing a great job not controlling, ...letting it roll.

[@ohthankg-dforthebourgeoisi9800]

We’ve lost 2 “Vietnam wars” worth, numerically, of Millennials too “excess death”. Are you paying attention to this yet?!

[@sheilastanaland]

Do you mean, "to 'excess death'."? (to, rather than too?)

[@JohnKerbaugh]

Drugs and suicide?

[@anhomunculous1454]

“No one is gonna cut benefits to senior citizens…” Until Gen x are seniors.

[@PreferredMethods]

Haha if they get their way… well things will be practical.

[@debra1363]

The oldest Xers have 4 years to go.I hope they don't get shafted this time around.

[@LucasFernandez-fk8se]

@@debra1363hopefully they do. Im sick of all our money going to boomers and Gen x. They had it easy growing up. Big cheap homes, cheap cars, cheap gas, high salaries, low taxes. And all they did was spend us 30 trillion into debt. Gen x and boomers need to stop LEECHING OFF THE YOUNG

[@madderanger7838]

Howe and Stauss' theory has kept me from being too swayed by popular sentiments. I think that the theory helps take off the blinders of the the issues of here and today and illustrates a horizon for us all and roles of the cohorts. Everything we feel that is earthshattering isn't. It has happened before and not really that long ago so stay calm and know we will get through this.

[@angelozachos8777]

@@darktagmaster1861 “Hottest month ever recorded” ? WHERE ? Total Surface Area of planet EARTH : about 509 600 000 square km (197 000 000 square miles). Where was it hottest ?

[@janetdouglas1272]

I am a Gen X'er in mindset since being a teenager.I bucked the stupid status, seek money & pleasure ethic of my generation ( Boomer), as I was born at the very end of those dates. I have great hope in the Millennials and very much believe we can get thru the coming chaos & pain when these tired, sick, decrepit systems fall apart soon. Personally, I'm proud of my Gen X ethics, we are the realists.

[@thierryf2789]

This is silly. What you're saying is that if you had been born 2 yeas earlier, you would have been stupid. This is quite a stupid thought to have, never mind the virtue signaling ...

[@MissJean63]

I was born in 1963 and you and I are a micro culture - Jonesers as in Keeping Up With the Jones! It’s just a thought.

[@mikeirvin9694]

I'm less than 4 months too old to be a millennial, so I'm technically a gen X'er. Carter was still in the white house my first couple months of life. One of my parents was a boomer (the other was a wartime baby and therefore a silent generation). My age cohort stopped listening to boomers in the mid 90's, especially on culture and values. Boomers are our parents, we have always known they weren't right in the head. They raised us after all. 50% of boomer presidents account for 75% of the presidential impeachments in history. Whatever comes next, boomer values will not shape it.

[@bitbucketcynic]

For those born near a divide, it's more a matter of mindset than timing. While I was born in 1981, my parents were rather old (my father was born in the Great Depression, my mother was born as WW2 was heating up, and both are now long dead), I was raised with their older values, and I've always related much more strongly to GenX than millennials and consider myself an Xer that came in late. And I'm thankful for their tough love-most kids today would break under the strain of losing both parents in their early 20s and having to sink or swim alone in the world.

[@wayneroberts6642]

I was born in 1970 probably the most reckless of the gen x, but proud. Lost a lot of friends already though. We were the first ones to say no we're not doing things that way. Keep up the fight.

[@Jtitor177]

I’m an older millennial. I have always desired community since childhood and still do to this day. Even how we look to create solutions to our loneliness via social media is to build community. We seek out others opinions, we network, we want to connect with other like minded individuals, create groups, we want others to subscribe and connect with us. Gen Z is all about the clicks, the views, the reactions, are very self entitled, individualistic and does the exact opposite of what we millennials do.

[@phuckfumassters]

Generally speaking I agree with you. I'm an older millennial as well. I want all those things you mentioned. The part I disagree on is the Gen Z part. I find Gen Z to be annoying and narcissistic as well and they don't realize they are being manipulated(Millennials too, but I realized it and woke up so to speak later on). Gen Z wants the same thing we want, a sense of belonging, purpose and community but they go about it the wrong way using socal media. The purpose of social media like the name implies is to be social and create a sense of community...but as a consequence it attracts mostly narcissists and trolls

[@TheCommonS3Nse]

This explains so much about how we moved away from the collective view of society. I’ve understood that to be a problem since reading Hannah Arendt’s Origins of Totalitarianism, but this explanation of it as a cycle helps to illustrate why we ended up so hyper focused on individualism despite the problems it has presented in the past. We ultimately need to find a balance between these two extremes. I’d really like to read Neil’s book to get a better understanding of this cycle and maybe understand how to break free of it.

[@angelozachos8777]

People today are Ret-Ard-Ed . I don’t want any of that COLLECTIVIST garbage you talk about , so long as a large percentage of the current citizenry seems perfectly comfortable with fragmentary , governmental authoritarian measures. If COLLECTIVISM had won out these past 3 years , all you weirdos would have forced me to inject my 3 children with some concocted liquid 💉 which they never needed in the first place NO to Collectivism ❌

[@clifb.3521]

These are fantastic generalizations. I need to read this book.

[@MichaelWeist1]

Great interview! I love your style and questions. I remember reading this book in Hong Kong four years after it was published and shocked how accurate to trends they were. Keep up the great work!

[@VicariousAquarius]

Excellent broadcast. Thank you Marshall.

[@jamesmcmann8536]

Sara Palin's zingers about community organizers were attacks on opponent Obama, who was a community organizer. It's also what Saul Alinsky was. C'mon Neil!

[@garryrichardson4572]

This talk reminds me of the concept of Integral thinking. The concept of God and religion can bind us together and some things that may seem like a myth or even a lie could in fact be there for a reason for inter personal interaction. Turning the other cheek to your enemy/ oppressor has long term merit to bring balance.

[@jayromer3536]

Neil is awesome

[@laurenwilliams9163]

What a fascinating conversation! Thanks for this. :)

[@Lindadeir]

Excellent interview. I will be watching more of your episodes.

[@mr.wonder4629]

Great interview. 47:33 Really important statement about the paradox of boomers being in charge but not taking responsibility for the results of their decisions.

[@detrockcity3]

They are the most selfish generation in history. They milked the country for all it’s worth, they handed over immense power to banks and governments with their permanent naïveté, and now they’re going die and leave us a world of wars and shortages and tyrants. Plus a completely dead social security apparatus that they consistently forced all future generations to continue paying into at gunpoint for their own atomistic benefit.

[@queserasera1674]

​@theeclecticbombshell7562 Yes, Trudeau and Newsom look a lot more promising./s

[@relevation0]

​@@queserasera1674😅

[@redpillcopinthephilippines9647]

I really enjoyed your interview of Neil today. I encourage you to keep going. You have a talent and a excellent command of the English language. All my respect.

[@darrylbarnes7275]

I don’t even know how to respond to your comment about his “command of the English language”? Is he not primarily an English speaker? Is English his second language? I never read or hear this comment in regards to someone white. I’m not sure if the comment is out of racial ignorance or just racist. I get this often, but only from people that would label themselves white. It’s always an interesting comment to think through. How come you couldn’t leave it at the fact that you enjoyed the interview?

[@littlestbroccoli]

That is racist.

[@FFTS]

How different is this turning, though? We have biological weapons, geoengineering, AI, surveillance, poison chemicals in our food and water, corruption on a massive scale including in all institutions that are supposed to help us (the UN, WHO, CDC, FDA, education, FBI, CIA, etc) and the average IQ has dropped 4 points in the last decade alone.... this turning might not turn out like all the ones before.

[@annamineer2521]

It won't. They don't want to hear that though.

[@patnor7354]

This is one turning without a happy end. people seem to assume that the crisis will end and then things will get better, not realizing that sometimes these crisis can send a society on a much worse course, or even end it.

[@FFTS]

@@patnor7354 That's what I am concerned about... "the 4th world war will be fought with sticks and stones".

[@jameswilkerson4412]

The WHO and CDC were FIGHTING a pandemic. You sound like someone who rejected health experts just because they were telling you something you didn’t want to hear.

[@vulgarprophet2689]

​@@jameswilkerson4412TrUsT tHe ExPeRtS. Are you joking?

[@vailguy99]

Well done. After reading Pendulum a friend suggested the 4th Turning. I read it several times, however, your interview clarified some gaps in my understanding. Well done! SUBSCRIBED!

[@bg3886]

My parents were sharp. They saw this during the 90’s and vividly remember similar conversations as to this one growing up

[@nookers]

Excited to get a copy of the book. I've been following the generational theories of Howe & Strauss since around 2001!

[@FushigiMigi]

Summary: Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times.

[@jmwichert8842]

That's half the cycle.

[@detrockcity3]

Why does every simpleton boomer love this simpleton cliché?

[@detrockcity3]

I hope Boomers understand that they ARE THE WEAK MEN WHO PRODUCED THESE HARD TIMES.

[@MichelleHell]

More like, the elites can only take from those who have. When the masses are have-nots, the elites have nothing to take from them. So they spend decades fattening us, then decades consuming us.

[@martifreedman4067]

Just came across your podcast, and want to tell you how impressed I am. Very interesting guest, and I like your hosting style. So many hosts seem to feel the need to talk over the guest, and put in their unnecessary 2 cents, thus interrupting the flow of the guest's narrative. Well done. I have subscribed and look forward to future podcasts.

[@generationreport]

Some great questions

[@angiewillsonarte]

I enjoyed the interview. My cautionary thought is the lumping together of generations. I am 60... right on the edge of Boomer and Gen X. I was a teacher and then went back to school and got my masters in counseling. I was alone post divorce. I then became a school counselor and also a therapist. Money was never the driving force for me... doing good was. I think I had parents who instilled those values in me. I’m not saying this to brag... I’m saying the awful leadership of our government makes me furious. It’s so corrupt. It’s been so for a long time... not all boomers are greedy “it’s all about me” people. All of my teacher friends and counseling friends cared deeply for our students. There were some dud teachers... always are. But most were so committed to kids. Had to say my peace! I love Millenials, Gen Z.... I love people. And our country is so off track it’s frightening. Sadly... I think it’s going to be quite a reckoning... no empire survives forever. Politicians are bought... they go in.... and then... they change. Bernie Sanders is the only one who stuck to his guns... and corporate America won’t have him or an RFK...no great president is coming to save us. These are great discussions... and the widening wealth gap is really the key to the horror that’s coming. It’s so awful to watch a country I believed in turn into what it is.

[@raymond_luxury_yacht]

Well tank goodness you have the right to bear arms against domestic threats to the constitution. Most people in the world don't.

[@ResurgentVoice]

@angiewilson247 You are right to be suspect about the whole “generations” hypothesis. I’m a Gen-X/Millennial and there are so many holes in his theory that you can drive a bus through. He constantly shoehorns events to fit his ideas. There is a MUCH better book that deals with this topic, but does so in a much more academically rigorous way. Look for the book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin. That book nails it! It is a billion times better than Howe’s book and Turchin uses data from civilizations around the world and throughout history that have risen, collapsed, and rebuilt their societies. After you read End Times, current events and news reports make sense and reinforce to me how right now Turchin theory is! 👍

[@somebodyontheinternet1090]

It's been a 40 plus year losing battle for good wages and good housing I can't wait to see why this guy thinks these problems will be solved bc I see mutiple ongoing crisis as part of the system of usa social -politics. Nothing gets fixed bc some people with power and money like the world the way it is

[@Lazris59]

Well, I'm pretty sure they explained it. A major shock to the system, like real physical life or death struggle not a pandemic like covid. Be that war with china or civil war, something that puts us on the brink of non-existence. Those kind of events force people to fix those problems or cease to exist.

[@somebodyontheinternet1090]

@@Lazris59 I actually hope all his research is wrong going forward bc if we wait until the planet boils us alive to try and save ourselves it will be too late

[@jmwichert8842]

Because if they aren't solved society will collapse. The wealthy are happy to hoard the economic surplus when they can keep the masses distracted and fighting amongst each other with culture wars and such. That's probably not going to work much longer.

[@p51mustang24]

I think Peter Turchin has the answers you seek, and the ones where Howe comes up short. Howe gets a lot right, but Turchin looks at the same cycle through a more blunt framework: Overproduction of elite aspirants + immiseration of the masses (declining real wages, failing social issues ie millennial's failure to hit life milestones) breeds revolutions. You can actually overlap these 2 frameworks in a way that makes sense.

[@somebodyontheinternet1090]

@p51mustang24 that frame work I am more open to accepting

[@wbcorkery]

Great interviewer and guest. Thanks so much.

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

Excellent interview.

[@mariannorton4161]

Also, that Howe is an economist may explain his lack of understanding of the social contract or why it is necessary. It takes root in GB and that history is easily found. Basically, the blue collar worker gives his or her life giving advantages to those who benefit from that labor without ever contributing to it other than a wage that up to that point, was slave wage labor. They have the 'good life' while those below them do the back breaking work it takes to run a society. Fair compensation is in the form of pensions etc and had our system not destroyed the pension system, the burden would not have shifted so heavily onto the government. When it comes to actual costs, those costs are swallowed by the medical industry that has made it an art to figure out how to bill the most, for the least amount of work. Were these charges brought into line the cost of SSI would drop through the floor. Again, these charts are easily found. He is right when he says the boomers caused this mess, but misses a crucial element as well. Many boomers sat back and let the younger, smarter generation take hold without asking what their lack of wisdom would bring to the table. The costs are high regarding concepts such as individual liberty, the costs of societal sterilization and basically replacing hard won values with the "me" form of thinking. All things do come back around and it's sad to know what price we are all about to pay.

[@tomskitv]

Excellent questions and great guest. Thank You!

[@DanaJumper]

Very nicely done interview. Reading the book now and this is quite timely. Thanks.

[@bundleofperceptions1397]

"And the seasons, they go 'round and 'round And the painted ponies go up and down We're captive on the carousel of time We can't return, we can only look Behind from where we came And go 'round and 'round and 'round In the circle game" -- Joni Mitchell, The Circle Game, 1970

[@michaeljensen4650]

One of the great paradoxes of human nature which is most apparent in our modern world is our desire to be part of a community in a world that is defined by class, wealth and malignant individualism. Sadly the communities we chose or are forced to participate in are destructive and antithetical to true social cohesion and social welfare.

[@rodneycaupp5962]

We're captives on the carousel of time.... WE could've been more than a name on a door.

[@dadedowuh]

Great discussion. Thank You, Michael

[@dougg1075]

We all used to watch the same thing on tv, the same news , the same Christmas cartoon specials , everything. It was a shared culture. It’s over

[@consciousawarness]

Awesome exchange!

[@yakurbe7039]

I was telling my boomer dad what I was listening to, how millennials were a collectivist generation and boomers were an individualist one, and his immediate reaction was that generational theory is overly reductive and simplistic and paints with too broad a brush to capture what individuals are like. I don't think he saw the irony there. +1 for the theory I guess.

[@Lazris59]

Wooosh

[@jmwichert8842]

Whenever you look at the microscopic level, you will see variety and nuance. That's not what Neil is doing... it's the 30,000 foot view. It's hard to argue with what he is saying when you look at the flow of history.

[@TheCommonS3Nse]

@@jslice6964 Boomer dad is not right. He’s looking at it from an individualist lens and essentially saying that some overarching theory isn’t predictive on an individual level, but that ignores the crux of the argument, that the general consensus in society shifts from individualistic to collectivist and back again, not that individuals change their perspectives. For example, the period from the civil war to the Great Depression is known as the Liberal era, the period from the Great Depression to the 1970’s was the Keynesian era, and the period from the 1970’s to now has been the NeoLiberal era. Those are definitive eras of economic thinking that shift from individualistic to collectivist and back again, but that says nothing about whether an individual during the Keynesian era would be individualistic or collectivist, but rather what the general economic worldview was at the time. You can’t just deny the relevance of those eras and their impacts because it isn’t predictive on an individual basis.

[@angelozachos8777]

@@TheCommonS3Nse Your interpretation of history is indistinguishable from the conventional pablum taught in our government-run public school institutions 😂 My critical explanations of the historical events which you outlined , are dissimilar to yours ✌️

[@TheCommonS3Nse]

@@angelozachos8777 So let me get this straight... my interpretation of different economic paradigms shifting over time, which is generally believed, not just among public schools but also among most economists, is wrong, because it doesn't match your critical explanations of historical events... which you haven't actually laid out here. I have a lot more respect for people who are willing to put their beliefs out there for criticism rather than just saying "WRONG" with zero explanation as to why someone might be wrong.

[@honuman39]

Great interview. It gives some sense of order to the disconnected reality we're in.

[@michigandersea3485]

As a millennial, though, a lot of my friends, and I myself, grew up with the Fight Club or Office Space mentality and it really beat the sh*t out of our lives and happiness

[@lazerwolf001]

We grew up with the idea that “the man” was stupid at best evil at worst. Corporations were evil, we should be individuals and our best expression would be through rebellion. Given the economic conditions we faced (2001 .con crash and 9/11, 2008 financial crash crises, 2019 pandemic) and still face this indoctrination was not conducive to building constructive relationships.

[@jaycrow6871]

@@lazerwolf001 it almost seems like it was intentional propaganda at this point. Having everyone as a individual makes it easy for the state to just let businesses do what they want with impunity.

[@cendrizzi]

And then faith will be put in corporations and other institutions only for the next generation to learn how corrupting they are.. I mean it repeats for a reason right?

[@orangetuono38]

​@@jaycrow6871Individuals that embrace victimhood cannot have personal agency. The concept of Citizenship skipped a generation.

[@edwardmiessner6502]

@@orangetuono38 Well that's just the thing. Under late stage capitalism those who do not have big wealth or solid connections are deprived of personal agency, so they embrace victimhood instead of citizenship.

[@colkutz8313]

Fascinating discussion

[@ChadThunderNut]

Great interview

[@MichaelSkelton]

Fantastic interview 👍

[@thistimeisdifferent]

Hey mate. Great video. Read the book a few years ago. 👍 cheers

[@tfustudios]

Palin wasn't disparaging community service. She was addressing 'community activists' in regards to Obama's credentials.

[@mikeh7842]

2x Obama voter... Was about to post the same.

[@tfustudios]

@@mikeh7842 Yep! 2X as well!

[@lorityson79]

He should have mentioned 'community service' has become a necessary line item in a resume, preferably paid. We used to call it getting involved..., sort of like mobilizing to 'change the world' because the revolution was just around the corner..

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

^^^^^ exactly ^^^^^ Community service = Kiwanis, Lions, jury duty, military Community activism = turn out the vote for dems, defund the police, create union shops

[@TheCommonS3Nse]

@@lorityson79 I think that’s part of the individualism problem. People no longer view community service as a way to give back to and improve their communities, but rather as a line item to make them more appealing to employers. Community service has shifted to become a self serving enterprise, not an outward act of generosity. Whether she was arguing against “community service” or “community organizers” doesn’t really matter, she was still arguing against community involvement. She was basically saying that being a community organizer had no intrinsic value, and that her experience as a small town mayor was more relevant. That is an individualist perspective in which your community organizing doesn’t pad your resume as well as a mayoral job does. It ignores the fact that community organizing is about helping your community, not helping your resume.

[@joemachine4714]

Community is local, but young people today are trying to create community at the national and global levels (with central planning). Since there's no "one size fits all" it ends up hurting most localities. I find this highly frustrating about young idealists 🫤

[@MichaelSkelton]

A consequence of globalization and social media. *Information* can travel instantaneously, but yet not people, not physical goods. This is the inherent breakdown of globalization: why should people pretend that we live in a global society when our food/material supply chains could disintegrate immediately from e.g. poor weather, natural disasters, pandemics. I agree that a sense of community must still exist at the local geographic level. It will only take a few days lapse in the electrical grid or petrol supply for people to re-learn this lesson.

[@javaskull88]

It’s a troubling but fascinating time to be alive.

[@prose217]

Great interview. First time seeing this channel. Interview skills 10k 🎉

[@adek2989]

13:20 millennials live together because they have to financially. As a boomer, we knew whenever we wanted to “sell out”, we could make money. No more. My kids have much less chance to survive as well as we did.

[@maplenook]

Then help your children get started

[@edwardmiessner6502]

@@maplenook You don't know if he/she is able to help his/her Millennial offspring, most people born 1946 to 1964 (Boomers and Jonesers) cannot because we don't have the money, having been unable to save for retirement because our wages and salaries just met our expected lifestyle for our employment station. If we were lucky!

[@steviewonder417]

Revolution is the only option

[@MichelleHell]

They bought all the property, raised the prices. We are working off that sell.

[@TheHsubh]

Like the show. Subscribed. Thank you

[@russellgallman7566]

Marshall, I'm a leftie, and I appreciate the work you are doing. I find people with a heterodox, macro-type view quiet interesting, insightful, and usually informative.

[@michigandersea3485]

Same here.

[@steviewonder417]

Revolution is inevitable. MAGA will grow into a prole army. Most of the let will find themselves on the side of the current hegemon. Their ideology of reactionary bourgeoise revolutionary values will keep them from “going where the people already are”.

[@procopiusaugustus6231]

I bought the original Generations when it first came out. Seemed to make sense and I’ve followed their predictions over time. Still seems on point and has tracked real life events and trends pretty well.

[@frankbarron1907]

Book is fantastic. I highly recommend it.

[@mikkimikki5376]

Great show! ❤

[@marycollins8215]

Superb host and guest. TY

[@samhail5479]

Good job on the interview

[@ruperterskin2117]

Right on. Thanks for sharing.

[@BathroomRemodelingTeacher]

Great interview 👍 fascinating discussion and very spot on

[@ByRaymondFerguson]

Great interview!!

[@LighttheWick]

Mr Howe seems to miss mentioning the group between the Boomers and the Millennials and the group after the Millennials, who likely won't go along with their wishes.

[@jameswilkerson4412]

Gen Z should be on track to be similar to the Silents. GenX should track the generation from just before 1900 (I forget its name)

[@hollyh-zw1yb]

Read this book a few years ago. Excellent.

[@AleksPTA]

What an amazing discussion

[@jenna2431]

I read the book, but the milestones quoted for the turnings seem somewhat capriciously chosen. There didn't seem to be a rubric at all-- just sort of, oh, this matches our timeline.

[@angelozachos8777]

Yes 👍🏼 It’s all very contrived and “devised”

[@ericsand1390]

Very good conversation

[@kaoskronostyche9939]

Good interview. Thank you.

[@zenowl3093]

Great interview, good points!

[@matthewheathcock]

Great interview thanks

[@redredred1]

Great interview - subbed.

[@marianhunt8899]

After the 1970's it was the Oligarch who were liberated. Liberated from paying their fair share of tax, liberated from the consequences of their actions (dangerous deregulation) and liberated from any responsibility or concern for the general welfare of society as a whole.

[@steviewonder417]

Abolish taxes. Starve the fascist government. MAGA, the libertarians, and Tankies need to join up, smash the oligarchs, and restore The Republic.

[@jameswilkerson4412]

@@steviewonder417abolish which taxes? Which institutions and services that they fund would you like to destroy?

[@steviewonder417]

@@jameswilkerson4412 you don’t understand the yoke that is superfluous labor. Read more Marx. The government produces nothing, but as a domain of capital itself it consumes massive amounts of real material surplus. The perpetuation of the existence of the fascist government requires the working class to labor that much more to sustain it. Abolish the state and you reduce the toil of the workers, simple as. The world is already a cornucopia and the nature of our economy which is 95% fake and unproductive in real terms is concealing that reality. This is deliberate of course. The goal of the ruling class to expand superfluous labor into ever more domains of capital, to create endless toil and thereby retaining class relations, forever, that is their own power over the prole.

[@jayromer3536]

Well done Marshall. Neil is the best

[@lenr7068]

Let's do it. Bring the pain. So scared!

[@KirillFrolov77]

Exceptional! How to see a good side of a crysis 101.

[@HappyCrone]

I'm an older parent to a Gen Z teenager and I've often said how much he reminds me of the Greatest Generation in the sense he is serious, frugal, thinks of community and is rigid in his thinking of right and wrong. Gen Z already thinks of themselves as in a war, and they are loyal to their peers when their peers are under any perceived attack.

[@roxieearly9484]

I'm a resident grandmother and I agree with you on this group, my granddaughter is all you shared and more.

[@HappyCrone]

I am not trying you speak for Gen Z, but to reply to your question, I think their top concerns are fascism and climate change...

[@steveareeno65]

I am a father of a gen z'r also and I see many in their generation confused (gender identity, etc) and full of anxiety.

[@CraftEccentricity]

@@HappyCrone Sadly, climate changers ARE Fascists.

[@mikemackey874]

Great video brother

[@admobandy4821]

HUGE +1 on "being responsible for consequences"

[@BIGDO13]

Great interview …

[@michigandersea3485]

Did the Civil War really reinstate a sense of national community? IMO it created centuries-long grudges by white southerners against free blacks and white northerners, and the failure of reconstruction enabled those grudges to become enshrined in law for 80 years

[@lazerwolf001]

This take might be spot on.

[@jmwichert8842]

It did resolve the conflict in that slavery was over and mass industrialization and the push west began. But there were fundamental differences that still exist and will probably always exist in a large, diverse country.

[@steviewonder417]

No where more diverse in the country. Meanwhile coastal libs live in 95% white cities and towns replete with gated communities and the spoils of concentrated financial capital.

[@ryanjacobson2508]

It resulted in the non-Southern regions emerging dominant, politically and economically, for many generations. Basically, until the Reagan Revolution and many white Southern Democrats as well as virtually the entire Military Industrial Complex (heavily concentrated in the South) defecting to the Republicans. Thus as the GOP became dominant they suddenly had to make room for and even celebrate The South, a region long derided to a large degree as a backward afterthought.

[@t-bo2734]

Every other "fourth turning" seems to see Americans united against an external threat while the other fourth turnings see Americans at war with each other. This period/crisis is more in the mold of the 1860s than the 1770s and 1940s. Perhaps the outcome will be as well.

[@robertp5998]

Good stuff.

[@richardkut3976]

Good stuff!

[@kylestone8849]

Awesome books.

[@juanheredia2293]

This reminds me of something going on in mexico called the 4th transformation

[@sheilastanaland]

In the major conflicts that we have experienced in the "winter" season, we have been able to prevail, in the sense that our country has grown stronger. But if we hit another war, fought on our own ground, where we are not able to overcome?

[@genxlibertarian9656]

great interview

[@edwinstar100]

I would love to hear a discussion on what replaces religious institutions, as this was a huge part of regulating societies. I think the arts could become he place where people meet and share values, help each other...like choirs, poetry groups, painting circles etc. Schools do little to plant this idea.

[@prime2669]

Eyeballing galore!