Predicting the Future of the Comic Book Market | Moneyball Comics

Big Premiere Issue! I use sales data for Amazing Fantasy 15 to help determine which cultural, political, economic, and social events directly affect the comic book market. Through my analysis, predictions can start to be made about the future value of comics, and it will help inform me of the best times to buy and sell comic books.
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Moneyball Comics
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Comic Book Stores, Discounts, and Utilities
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BCW Supplies - www.bcwsupplie...
Dark Dominion Comics - darkdominionco...?bon_ref=MGRwsBWf
Things From Another World - shrsl.com/33hkn
Third Eye Comics - GET A $5 COUPON - i.refs.cc/TmSZ...
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Comic Book Supplies that I Use
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Bags and Backer Boards: amzn.to/3C3c37n
Bubble Wrap Pouches: amzn.to/3AsfS5B
Heat Press: amzn.to/3INSvGK
Plastic Comic Bin: amzn.to/3CjaG4C
Sealing Tool (Tacking Iron): amzn.to/3KcObCc
Top Loader: amzn.to/3Av3H7Z

[@MichaelHollen]

I love the analytical approach to better understanding pricing using statistics and significant events. I work in investments and causation clients frequently against conflating correlation and causation, and that also applies here.

[@MoneyballComics]

Thank you! I have several theories and figured I would start a new series where you can watch me work through my thoughts and analysis as we go along to help narrow things down to determine the greatest influence and impact. I think we generalize "the pandemic" and "MCU speculation" too much. Do/did they play a role? Absolutely, but there are other factors at play and I'm curious to figure them out.

[@MichaelHollen]

@@MoneyballComics I also follow Swagglehaus and love his index pricing. The pricing follows a similar regression to the mean pattern which followed FOMC rates.

[@Markus465]

15:52 Don't forget that Spider-Man: Homecoming was being filmed in 2016 and came out in 2017. I see a big spike in those years. It will probably continue to spike as more Spider-Man movies are made as well as the fact that as years go by that book gets older, making it more attractive on that basis alone.

[@MoneyballComics]

Great point! I'm making note of this event and will keep track of this on my list of significant events.

[@FlipFlopComics]

Incredible research and hypothesis. Your dedication and passion for this hobby is inspiring. Thank you for all the hard work. Excellent content. I agree with throwing out 2020-2022. I know this may be an obvious trend, but I wonder how the death of key figures like Stan Lee has an impact on values. I was also thinking of unemployment rates and how that may impact sales data. Lastly, I'd like to say that She-Hulk was a complete dumpster fire. 😂

[@MoneyballComics]

Thank you! Lee's passing is something I will note for next time. I was looking forward to She-Hulk and was very disappointed. It just wasn't for me.

[@moose10661]

On your YoY graph down years should be in the colour red.

[@wahoocomics]

My biggest takeaway is that I should've started investing in comics 10 years ago, haha. But, yeah, I agree...we should throw out the Covid years when trying to analyze the market going forward. It's an anomaly.

[@MoneyballComics]

I know! We could have bought all of those sweet Doctor Doom comics years ago!!

[@davidsamuelson2089]

I applaud you for using base statistics to remove the large anomalies of COVID from a real statistical analysis. Three standard deviations from the mean is hardly a normal occurrence.

[@moose10661]

Would there be a trickle down effect in 2011 and 2021 when AF 15 broke the million dollar mark, and when Heritage sold a 9.6 for 3.6 million respectively?

[@jabezcreed]

I think the political elements don't play the effect on markets people world assume. As long as wealthy people have money, I think we can sell clearly that they will always want to collect high dollar items. The pandemic (stimulus and resulting crypto surge) made everyone temporarily more wealthy, but the volume of sales during the MCU era is more of a strong signal.

[@MoneyballComics]

I tend to agree with you here. I'm looking to both prove and disprove what events have helped shape the trends we've seen affect comic book values, and will make note of which political elements did and did not in fact have any impact.

[@BZackheim]

Wow you’re tackling a hell of a task. Giving new meaning to The Brave and the Bold! I think you covered events very well. I can’t think of any others that would have impacted sales except the release of the newest Spider-Man films. Would it be useful (and more conservative) to only map the lowest sales? Instead of eliminating entire years, it seems to me that looking at lowest sales would stabilize the trend line and show where cooler heads prevailed. Just a thought. Also, it would be great to map this to trending hashtags on social media platforms over time.

[@MoneyballComics]

Thanks for the suggestions! I will add the release dates for the Spider-Man films and see if I notice any impact or trends there. I can build a view of the lowest sales per year and see if that is interesting. The tough part with some of these grails and sales is that there may only be one sale of a book in a specific grade and it could be outrageously high or low than the adjacent years. It's all data and fun to look at, though!

[@shepherdsknoll]

I wonder how much the market diminishes as the books increase in price ?

[@WillSinclair-vw3wo]

Did you take into account the Spiderman movies and the federal stimulus checks? Adding the correct dates for elections and the significant events may show new influences. Stan Lee’s death is also an event you can see effects of in your graph. November 2018

[@MoneyballComics]

I did not take the release dates of the Spider-Man movies and Stan Lee's death into account for this initial analysis, but I will make note of these dates going forward. Thanks for the suggestions!

[@troyevans6839]

Thanks for your efforts. It'd be interesting to adjust the prices for inflation over the same time period of the trend line to access an average capital gains.

[@MoneyballComics]

Thank you and appreciate the suggestion. I'll make note of this.

[@davidsamuelson2089]

Would you be kind enough to let every dealer know it’s not 2021 anymore? They still price books like those days are coming back.

[@davidsamuelson2089]

Like any other bubble, the people that are here pre-boom are still here post-bust. All the middle folks are long gone.

[@davidsamuelson2089]

No non-comic fan goes to a movie and decides to toss 5 figures in a slabbed book. They move on. Films had an influence on garbage modern maybe.

[@poing333]

I love this nerdassshit 🔥

[@MoneyballComics]

Same!

[@moose10661]

Rather than use a movie release date as an important event wouldn’t it make more sense to use the date when the character’s inclusion was announced? Also, people were likely speculating on what characters would be included in the movie long before the official announcement was made. Also, both comic fans and the general public attended the movies (note I’m using the past tense as most of the movies of the past few years are woke garbage) but not too many of the general public were converted into comic fans, as sales of new comics continued to trend down. Also, even a low grade copy of AF 15 would have to be considered an investment, not part of a collection for the most part. I don’t know if the previous sentence has any bearing on your analysis, but I thought I would put it in anyway.

[@davidsamuelson2089]

Comics are not nor have ever been a true investment. They are a gamble. Even formerly superior golden books are not a guarantee of gains. You’re better off over time to invest in a S&P 500 mutual fund than a comic. With comics, you must consistently find the needle in the haystack whereas with a fund you get the entire haystack.