Predicting the future with the power of the Internet (and pissing off Rob Miles)

OVERTAKE MEMESTINY SAVE THE WORLD: manifold.markets/?referrer=Wr...
Manifold Markets is a prediction market: you can bet internet points (NOT REAL MONEY) on the probability of future events. The bets of the users, in aggregation, produce calibrated probabilities. Ditch the news. We have real-life crystal balls now.
Manifold's leaderboard: manifold.markets/leaderboards
Collection of markets made by the epistemically degenerate writer of the video:
Will I be the Manifold Markets user responsible for the highest number of referrals by 2024? manifold.markets/Writer/will-...
Will Rational Animations' fundraiser for GiveDirectly meet its objective? manifold.markets/Writer/will-...
Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024? manifold.markets/Writer/will-...
Will Rational Animations' video "The Power of Intelligence" accrue 1 million views by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Writer/will-...
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
manifold.markets/Writer/will-...
Is Bing Chat conscious? manifold.markets/Writer/is-bi...
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second? manifold.markets/Writer/if-ai...
Examples of newsworthy markets on Manifold:
Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
manifold.markets/Dustin/will-...
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Gigacasting/...
Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Heaffey/will...
Will TikTok be banned in the US? manifold.markets/Aurelius/wil...
Will either Donald Trump or Joe Biden be elected president in 2024? manifold.markets/April/will-e...
#predictionmarket
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Previous video about prediction markets: • Prediction markets: ca...
Manifold Markets: manifold.markets/?referrer=Wr...
More about Manifold Markets: manifold.markets/about
Manifold Markets' live-updated calibration data: manifold.markets/calibration
Vincent Luczkow's code for generating calibration data: github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy
Metaculus: www.metaculus.com/questions/
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MERCH, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
🟠 Patreon: / rationalanimations
🟢Merch: crowdmade.com/collections/rat...
🔵 Channel membership: / @rationalanimations
🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: ko-fi.com/rationalanimations
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Discord: / discord
Reddit: / rationalanimations
Twitter: / rationalanimat1
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Nathanael Moody
Alcher Black
RMR
Kristin Lindquist
Nathan Metzger
Monadologist
Glenn Tarigan
NMS
James Babcock
Colin Ricardo
Long Hoang
Tor Barstad
Gayman Crothers
Stuart Alldritt
Chris Painter
Juan Benet
Falcon Scientist
Jeff
Christian Loomis
Tomarty
Edward Yu
Ahmed Elsayyad
Chad M Jones
Emmanuel Fredenrich
Honyopenyoko
Neal Strobl
bparro
Danealor
Craig Falls
Vincent Weisser
Alex Hall
Ivan Bachcin
joe39504589
Klemen Slavic
blasted0glass
Scott Alexander
noggieB
Dawson
John Slape
Gabriel Ledung
Jeroen De Dauw
Craig Ludington
Jacob Van Buren
Superslowmojoe
Michael Zimmermann
Nathan Fish
Bleys Goodson
Ducky
Bryan Egan
Matt Parlmer
Tim Duffy
rictic
marverati
Luke Freeman
Dan Wahl
leonid andrushchenko
Alcher Black
Rey Carroll
William Clelland
ronvil
AWyattLife
codeadict
Lazy Scholar
Torstein Haldorsen
Supreme Reader
Michał Zieliński
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Directed by Hannah Levingstone
Written by :3
Line producer: Kristy Steffens
Quality Assurance Lead: Lara Robinowitz
Animation:
Michela Biancini
Colors Giraldo
Keith Kavanagh
Owen Peurois
Neda Lay
Backgrounds:
Hannah Levingstone
Zoe Martin-Parkinson
Hané Harnett
Compositing:
Renan Kogut
Patrick O'Callaghan
Narrator:
Robert Miles
VO Editor:
Tony di Piazza
Sound Design and Music:
Epic Mountain

[@RationalAnimations]

OVERTAKE MEMESTINY SAVE THE WORLD: manifold.markets?referrer=Writer Manifold Markets is a prediction market: you can bet internet points (NOT REAL MONEY) on the probability of future events. The bets of the users, in aggregation, produce calibrated probabilities. Ditch the news. We have real-life crystal balls now. Manifold's leaderboard: manifold.markets/leaderboards Collection of markets made by the epistemically degenerate writer of the video: Will I be the Manifold Markets user responsible for the highest number of referrals by 2024? manifold.markets/Writer/will-i-be-the-manifold-markets-user?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' fundraiser for GiveDirectly meet its objective? manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-fundraiser?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024? manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-second-vid?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' video "The Power of Intelligence" accrue 1 million views by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-video-the?r=V3JpdGVy Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100? manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by?r=V3JpdGVy Is Bing Chat conscious? manifold.markets/Writer/is-bing-chat-conscious?r=V3JpdGVy If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second? manifold.markets/Writer/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-every?r=V3JpdGVy Examples of newsworthy markets on Manifold: Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024? manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor?r=V3JpdGVy Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-b71e74f6a8e4?r=V3JpdGVy Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023? manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=V3JpdGVy Will TikTok be banned in the US? manifold.markets/Aurelius/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or?r=V3JpdGVy Will either Donald Trump or Joe Biden be elected president in 2024? manifold.markets/April/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru?r=V3JpdGVy

[@pyeitme508]

Nuke

2

[@RobertMilesAI]

This is fake news! I'm pretty sure I didn't say the script was dumb because I didn't know how to say Memestiny's name, I said it was dumb because it talks about a bunch of markets that can't resolve, and also calls for me to make a fart noise! I've been backstabbed and quite possibly bamboozled!

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

Hello to my favourite KZbin channel!

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

Please resolve to what extent this video represents your views and/or pisses you off. Takk.

[@gordontaylor2815]

This comment ought to be pinned as well!

[@felixroux]

@@gordontaylor2815 I'm fairly sure only one comment can be pinned per video unfortunately

[@Your_Friend_Corey]

We need your videos more than ever.

[@CarpenterBrother]

This definitely works. I just signed up and ended up contemplating for 30 minutes before betting 10 Mana points for a single poll. lol.

[@gordontaylor2815]

There's something amusing about the example they used for prediction markets seeming to have already been reached (about 203K subscribers as of about 20 minutes after the video went live)!

[@bayesian0.0]

yeah often markets take a bit to get resolved by the market creator! but notice that the price of that market is 99.6% YES, so insofar as there's money on the table, it's 0.4% returns, which isn't as much as you can find elsewhere so few people pick it up :p

[@ataraxia7439]

Need to get that utopia probability up

[@FacepalmProduction7]

Seeing memestiny as top manifold user made me wonder: When will Rob talk to Destiny about AI? If set up in a way where Steven asks questions and tries to find any flaws in Rob's beliefs, it could be really interesting. The convo would also get a lot of engagement as I think both communities would really appreciate the matchup.

[@AZALI00013]

the quality on this channel is just amazing and so consistent :0 thank you for everything you do !!!

[@themachine5647]

I cannot believe how great this channel is, if I ever become Emperor of all Earth I will make sure that this content creator has a hand in shaping our future.

[@Ryann9]

Azali?!? I didn't expect you here

[@sirdumpybear]

azali?? here??

[@xymaryai8283]

ima confuse anyone who sees this, this video needs less accordion

[@Daniel-li6gu]

This channel is so underrated

[@ThiloIsntPro]

I intentionally dislike videos and subscribed via web-scraper, just to keep the vibe chill

[@inues]

Im happy the alg pointed me back here and particularly for this video. For your data i subscribed a while ago and haven't seen much until this video. Now I'm definitely going to be on manifold and checking out kore of your vids. Thanks for making them and goodness bless you.

[@Nethershaw]

"The epistemically degenerate writer of this video..." 😆

[@rayzhang3425]

Ooh I love it! I’m skeptical though of putting weight in people’s opinions on things hardly anyone has potentially related knowledge of or experience in. I think the power of a market like this lies in the ability humans in general to make hypotheses based on recognizing patterns from their lives, and address the issue of individuals having incomplete experience by asking many individuals with (hopefully) independently incomplete experience with an approximation of a random distribution for how likely past experiences in one’s life lead them to believe one way or another, which approximates sampling the distribution of those events themselves. It’s when it comes to things that are very unlikely to have had any relevant priors in any arbitrary life, that I worry would be inaccurate due to any possible relevant factors being drowned out by cultural influence which is even less independent than before in globalization, especially in a community speaking the same language, though that need not be the case for this general concern. I believe in the power of these things in areas we collectively have experienced before, but I’m worried people will abstract that belief to other issues without consideration of weights, as we already have with zealous but surface-level fanatics from hype over so many innovations before it. Do you know of any studies that consider the subject of each market as well? If not, perhaps it could be done with a modification to the code provided for AI-powered topic detection? Do you yourself believe in the current predictive power of the public when applied to the field of artificial intelligence, given the mysticism that surrounds it this year of our Lord ChatGPT 2023?

[@htidtricky1295]

Direct democracy suffers the same problem. Some questions require careful consideration by subject matter experts.

[@MoSoda]

I loveh oe animation goes up a notch after every video and still has its own style!

[@mariogonzalez-re5oh]

Does anybody know if the page has data for Resolution? Calibration means that you are able to say this will happen and it happen while Resolution is for something like head or tails being able to call when it is going to be heads or tails instead of asigning a 50% to both outcomes.

[@flyingfoox1365]

Only 200k? I forgot this was a smaller channel, your guys’ content is awesome!

[@HomeofLawboy]

I think it can be better to use internet points rather than actual money, because it doesn't incentivize people to act in the real world to try and manipulate the outcome of predictions. Like, if a person sees a very high or low probability on something that they personally have the power to act on the outcome, it could be way to earn some "easy" money if they can make sure the outcome goes against the prediction.

[@Dan-dy8zp]

It still does though. This wouldn't work.

[@Sugar3Glider]

Your videos are so good, it makes me think I need to be weary of something spooky.

[@XOPOIIIO]

I remember I was counting calibration in the past. I wasn't even good in programming, but somehow made it.

[@krzysztofszczepanik8380]

3:55 devil vortex saws

[@ataraxia7439]

I now know how metaculus is pronounced. Great video as always!

[@no_mnom]

I love rob miles his videos are so good!!

[@elizathegamer413]

a question i have also is length of time of payout. yes the money is fictional, but if i bet 10 dollars and might get 11 when the poll closes in 10 years then like, thats 10 cents a year. however if i do the same bet, maybe even with worse odds but its less than a year from now, id get way more. essentially, my thinking is that larger amounts of activity will appear on shorter timescales. in addtion, as a larger timescale closes, a majority of activity will appear (essentially, less than 50 percent of the total activity during the first 50 percent of the time the poll is open); this might skew the predicability factor as things could swing wildly as the polls approach closing. A third thing is that long term polls may swing because the world might change enough to skew the real odds. All of this is to say i think that sort term polls can greatly benefit but long term polls might not be great

[@ashleycarvell7221]

Question though, as the market value gets closer to the true value, the best predictors will see that the margin is too small to be worth the bet. How do you decide what probability to start with? It will massively influence the quality of participants

[@Paperbutton9]

I think if you could maybe create some sort of gated participation, utilizing a aptitude or some sort of questionnaire, you could maybe fine-tune the people participating depending on the type of prediction, ultimately the margin may seem small at the moment, but thats thinking in Fiat currency, not true value, the implications are huge

[@wanderingvagrant1551]

ah yes, the beginnings of psychohistory

[@zotaninoron3548]

I don't know if it was addressed in a previous video, but it seems like there would have been some discussion about conflict of interest and how that impacts calibration. For example, it strikes me that any question regarding reaching a view threshold on a channel or video would trend towards yes with more engagement because not only does that result in compounding attention, but also the probability someone will be invested enough to elicit other actions into guaranteeing their outcome such as view botting.

[@christophmorley7510]

Very interesting concept. I had a similar vision in mind but especially tailored for a biodiversity simulator, based on the future of the genpool. Predictions regarding genes that will be persistent can be impactful, positive gene examples can be found in agricultural crop and negative genes in problematic antibiotic resistances. Organisms could be seen as a type of investment fund. Inherently very complex, it surely will not be easy to figure out how to define the parameters; is the indicator based on the total change in biomass/ volume/ number of the gene (+all related products?) or measured with all the associated organisms biomass? And how are mutations accounted for? To even add another layer: can there be drawn a connection between genes and entropy change?

[@leonardsalt]

I wanna smoke what this guy had

[@Sporkz_]

My iq just got boosted from -2 to 1000.

[@melvin6228]

Hey, I wonder how you make your animations. If you could make a short episode about that, that'd be awesome! Kurzgesagt also of course did it, as did many others, but I guess I like your style. And I wanna see how you do what you do behind the scenes ;-)

[@nyrdybyrd1702]

While I like the manner in which this request is presented.. nah, who am I kidding; I'z just tryna say some nice before I ripped into it. Who am I?. a grumpy butt. Then why should you care?. 🤷 Ion't pretend you do. Why is this request/suggestion objectionable?. 👍 good question, I answer: Simple really (twofold), because I'd rather Rational Animations focus on their message, not their method & appeals to convention are stupid, especially ones involving friggin Kurzgesagt. 🙄

[@DannyOBrien]

Thanks!

[@chadjones1266]

Thanks again

[@happmacdonald]

My concern is the incentive for users to skew probabilities in their own favor. 😠

[@smitchered]

The more people watch this video THE MORE PREDICTORS WE GET, I can get behind this basic maximalist goal. Also sorry RA but apparently I keep underestimating you, because I just lost some mana on the "will The Goddess of Everything Else have 1 Million views by the end of 2023". I have updated my beliefs in your channel's direction! Thanks for these videos as always.

[@floofpenguin8329]

This video should have way more views

[@IWouldLikeToRemainAnonymous]

Another caveat is that the more vague and up to interpretation the question is the less reliable the prediction will be. A concrete question like 'Will either Donald Trump or Joe Biden be elected president in the year 2024' is a lot easier for people to assess and to do so all on the same grounds of what is being asked than the question of 'Will AI create a utopia for humans by the year 2100'. Not everyone has the same understanding of AI; not everyone has the same ideas of what a utopia is: and though it is easy to calculate that from the year 2024, the year 2100 is 76 years away, people tend to overestimate the speed of certain technological and societal changes and not even consider other changes that do take place when it comes to predictions of the future. The year 2100 is just the contemporary idea of the 'near future', just as when the movie classics of 'Back to the Future' and other stories set in the near future but made in the 1900's made predictions about the early 2000's. It is easy to see many predictions of the current year by people from the 1900's were terribly wrong. Other questions will have other problems of similar origin - bad questions to ask for 'the wisdom of the crowds' effect. The case study for 'The wisdom of the crowds' effect is predicting the number of beads or grains of rice or other small things in a glass jar. Everyone who submits a guess is first shown the jar full of beads or whatever it might be; It is making a guess about something tangible, clearly visible, not susceptible to political beliefs or other biases and the guess does not need to take into account the effects of chaos theory. Keep this in mind when creating questions in these contexts and (ideally don't even bother to make a guess) when viewing such questions.

[@firewolftheguy]

I think this video persuaded me to use manifold! Good job!

[@Paperbutton9]

i actually felt brain swell from knowledge

[@Jan12700]

This Screens like a scam with a Rugpull and that Coffeezilla will do a vid about this soon.

[@obsidian_oki]

how havent more ppl found this gold

[@FAB1150]

Lol at the video sponsor paying with the fake money

[@stealthemoon8899]

Have you geard of Kashi? It creates securities with a value tied to the outcome of events and lets you trade them, effectively creating a prediction market

[@SiplasNoplas]

Is it prediction or just hyperstitial self-reinforcing prophecy madness feedback loops? (Outcome more likely to occur because betting site says outcome more likely to occur causing more people to bet on the outcome occuring which...)

[@terdragontra8900]

when manifold makes a prediction about this channel, maybe, but it isnt well known enough to affect the US presidental race, for instance

[@descai10]

What is the accuracy when measuring a significant amount of time before the market resolves? The markets often shift rapidly right before they resolve due to new information.

[@gabrote42]

The first study cited measured at the halfway point. That means it was well callibrated at that time

[@Jaggerbush]

A peak behind the curtain - 🗣️ episode... These always disappoint for some reason.

[@bckends_]

Insee Rob Miles, I click

[@thomasst.reinhart-zechner1084]

Robert seems to develop ethical reasoning beyond "I said u so"....look forward to where it may quickly lead

[@deaddybros206]

Nuevo suscriptor

[@linuxgaminginfullhd60fps10]

I think in the end you were supposed to use the fart machine. The highly sophisticated human invention used to replicate human fart noises.

[@catlover_w]

Love your vidos

[@Julzaa]

I know one other predictive market, it's called Venue One and it's a decentralized prediction protocol!

[@kittythepet485]

That peoples beliefs about probablilities and the actual probabilities themselves are two different things could be stressed more here? I am interested to know how accurate this tool will prove over time. If the crowd is more or less accurate with certain predictions it might have fascinating sociological value.

[@pietjonker2480]

The link is buggy for me. When I click the purple button to start, nothing happens :(

[@gazorpazorp9798]

WALLSTREET BETS HAS ENTERED THE CHAT

[@AbramSF]

Well those YOLOs are going to totally screw up the accuracy of the data.

[@metachirality]

​@@AbramSF well then it's just a lot of free mana because we can just bet against them since they're guaranteed to be wrong :P

[@Kopygoter]

Now who was it that said the internet will be the end of humanity...

[@cortster12]

Well, the internet isn't AGI.

[@endy9059]

This is true meta

[@matthewboire6843]

If this stuff does end up being accurate then it could be quite useful.

[@etdr]

Did anyone partake in the Newcomb's Paradox implementation on Manifold?

[@Josephkerr101]

*fart noise* XD

[@Sugar3Glider]

Probability Market, more like Presumptive Market. Rebrand as S.W.A.G. Silly Wild Ass Guess

[@scfdx2]

I just checked up Manifold. The website offered me interest topics. Nearly half of the politics topics involve my country (Israel). Should I be worried?

[@4dragons632]

Well I'm interested, but also some of your internet money is going to be locked up forever in certain questions, like the will everyone fall down dead question. That's never going to resolve so the only reason to put internet money into it is to plant an opinion flag. I guess it gives the money a purpose, beyond just trying to invest and get more money. Maybe thats actually good design.

[@victorlevoso8984]

You get it back as a loan as an incentive to invest on longerm markers.

[@Melcas2]

im a subcriber

[@SolidFake]

Transistor

[@iluvpandas2755]

Wait so Writer from the Rational Animations discord created this to make the most refrerals?

[@jfmhunter375]

You can do this but with real money (regulated) at Kalshi

[@petersmythe6462]

Markets that resolve in centuries or never end up being pure financial speculation on the estimated behavior of others.

[@jfb-]

twitch channel point predictions

[@rustix3]

How can we see the questions on already happened events? Like what % did manifold provided for invasion of Russia into Ukraine before it happened?

[@ianphilips5315]

I hope I lose my bet!

[@timhaldane7588]

The arms race to predict (and redirect) the future through mass surveillance is essentially what my D&D campaign was about 10 years ago. It's weird to see the real world gradually evolve into the science version of what that world needed magic to accomplish.

[@Egg-Thor]

NOTIFICATION GANG 😎

[@higztv1166]

YAS THATS US

[@victorlevoso8984]

❤

[@MehnixIsThatGuy]

This seems little different from an opinion poll with a betting option. Opinions aren't exactly what one would consider a trustworthy source.

[@NotHungarian]

written by: :3

[@GeekOverdose]

6:26 it's Destiny's account?? or one of his fans probably

[@jamesonpace726]

Everything changes, becomes more "professional", is actually not as good as before, calls itself progress....

[@jillianonthehudson1739]

Is this just another way of training an AI?

[@thastayapongsak4422]

prediction market is such a stupid term. It's literally sports betting but on real events.

[@josephwatson4002]

Who is Rob Miles?

[@Yemadas]

It's a pity that you can only sign up with a gmail account.

[@Nixion.]

:D

[@pyeitme508]

Ha 😂

[@Neuro_nActivation]

That's an awesome goal for a video

[@stcredzero]

Who the hell is :3 ?

[@mintbeach4754]

26th lol

[@Toast_In_a_Bottle]

I am one of the first few comments

[@kennethdarlington]

Yes, but these probabilities are of limited use. Say, for example 70% of your video will gain 1mil in a week. And... what? What you could do with that info? Leave YT if not? It only makes sense if there are opportunities to act on that probabilities. For example the stock market is not only for the investors but for the companies selling shares too.

[@beowulf2772]

ez 200k haha

[@Kingsleyrulz]

A bit too capitalist for my liking but I get it.

[@NedInYaHead]

What about Capitalism inherently makes it bad? Capitalism is a tool, just like anything else; if applied in the wrong way or for a purpose it isn't suited for, of course it won't work, but if this works why knock it?

[@theindiependant5950]

Is this an advert?

[@dirtyduck6987]

Yes, but not really

[@joshwells3247]

Unsubbing for profit 💲💲💲

[@imperialofficer6185]

I LOVE THE FREE MARKET I LOVE THE FREE MARKET I LOVE THE FREE MARKET I LOVE THE FREE MARKET I LOVE THE FREE MARKET