Prof. John Mearsheimer PREDICTS the Crisis in Ukraine

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In this video (June 2015), the prominent political scientist John Mearsheimer argues that the Ukraine crisis is predominantly the fault of the West, particularly the United States and its NATO allies. He delivers a thorough analysis of the geopolitical dynamics that have led to the conflict, focusing on the roles of NATO expansion, EU enlargement, and the following incidents in Eastern Europe. Mearsheimer's insights delve into how these Western actions have been perceived by Russia and the subsequent reactions that have escalated the crisis.
Key Points Discussed:
Introduction and Strategic Interests:
Historical Context: Mearsheimer outlines the historical context and strategic interests that have shaped the Ukraine crisis.
Shift in U.S. Priorities: Emphasizes the shift in America's strategic priorities towards Asia due to China's rise, while Europe remains significant, especially regarding NATO.
Ukraine's Geopolitical Significance:
Buffer State: Ukraine's role as a buffer state between Russia and NATO.
Internal Divisions: Highlights Ukraine's ethnic and political divisions, contributing to its instability and strategic importance.
Causes of the Crisis:
NATO Expansion: The expansion into Eastern Europe and the 2008 declaration regarding Ukraine and Georgia.
EU Enlargement: The EU's efforts to integrate Ukraine economically and politically.
Promotion of Democracy: The West's support for democratic movements in Ukraine, seen by Russia as attempts at regime change.
The 2014 Crisis:
Overthrow of Yanukovych: The pro-Russian president's overthrow, described as a coup supported by the West.
Russia's Response: Annexation of Crimea and support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine to prevent NATO's foothold.
Western Missteps:
Underestimating Russia: Criticism of the West for not anticipating Russia's strong reaction to protect its strategic interests.
Russian Strategy:
Defensive Posture: Russia's actions framed as a strategy to maintain a buffer zone and prevent NATO's expansion.
Consequences and Solutions:
Geopolitical Tensions: The conflict's impact on global stability.
Neutral Ukraine: Advocates for a neutral Ukraine as a buffer state to address Russia's security concerns and de-escalate tensions.
Conclusion:
Western Responsibility: Mearsheimer concludes that the West's failure to understand and respect Russia's strategic imperatives has led to the Ukraine crisis. He calls for a reevaluation of Western policies and a more balanced approach to international relations in Eastern Europe.
Dans cette vidéo (juin 2015), le célèbre politologue John Mearsheimer soutient que la crise en Ukraine est principalement la faute de l'Occident, en particulier des États-Unis et de leurs alliés de l'OTAN. Il propose une analyse approfondie des dynamiques géopolitiques ayant conduit au conflit, en se concentrant sur les rôles de l'expansion de l'OTAN, de l'élargissement de l'UE et des incidents survenus en Europe de l'Est.
Farsi
در این ویدئو (ژوئن ۲۰۱۵)، جان مرشایمر، دانشمند برجسته علوم سیاسی، استدلال می‌کند که بحران اوکراین عمدتاً تقصیر غرب، به ویژه ایالات متحده و متحدان ناتو آن است. او تجزیه و تحلیل کاملی از دینامیک‌های ژئوپلیتیکی که منجر به این درگیری شده‌اند، ارائه می‌دهد و بر نقش‌های گسترش ناتو، گسترش اتحادیه اروپا و حوادث بعدی در اروپای شرقی تمرکز می‌کند.
Arabic
في هذا الفيديو (يونيو 2015)، يجادل عالم السياسة البارز جون ميرشايمر بأن أزمة أوكرانيا هي في الغالب نتيجة لأخطاء الغرب، وخصوصاً الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في الناتو. يقدم ميرشايمر تحليلاً شاملاً للديناميات الجيوسياسية التي أدت إلى الصراع، مركزاً على أدوار توسع الناتو، توسيع الاتحاد الأوروبي، والحوادث اللاحقة في أوروبا الشرقية.
Russian
В этом видео (июнь 2015 года) выдающийся политолог Джон Миршаймер утверждает, что кризис на Украине в основном является виной Запада, особенно Соединенных Штатов и их союзников по НАТО. Он представляет тщательный анализ геополитических динамик, приведших к конфликту, сосредоточив внимание на роли расширения НАТО, расширения ЕС и последующих событий в Восточной Европе. Взгляды Миршаймера объясняют, как эти западные действия были восприняты Россией и последовавшие реакции, которые усугубили кризис.
Spanish
En este video (junio de 2015), el destacado científico político John Mearsheimer argumenta que la crisis de Ucrania es predominantemente culpa de Occidente, particularmente de los Estados Unidos y sus aliados de la OTAN. Él ofrece un análisis exhaustivo de las dinámicas geopolíticas que han llevado al conflicto, enfocándose en los roles de la expansión de la OTAN, la ampliación de la UE y los incidentes siguientes en Europa del Este.
Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for fair use for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research.
#ukraine #russia #usa #nato #europe #geopolitics #analysis

[@carloscontreras3633]

Amazing lecture. Saw the whole thing and I am impressed how he got so much right.

[@James-hm9on]

Should be on every MSM outlet in the west .

[@alekanal8765]

Professor Mearsheimer's logic is amazing and it is great to watch it from Czech republic. The war could have had been avoided and many lives saved. For Czech establishment the war started on Feb 22nd 2022 and nothing happened before. This propaganda has been getting cracks over the period of time and the truth has been comming out gradually . Thank you professor 👃

[@dasanthambyrajah569]

Excellent

[@newsinsights360]

I don't agree with the comment that the first two charts look the same. 1) Opposition to NATO is much stronger in eastern cities as compared to opposition to EU. 2) The higher amount of "other/don't know" answers in eastern cities suggest that people are afraid to voice their opinion in eastern Ukraine for obvious reasons we now now in 2024...I would be interested to know what an opinion poll about joining the west would look like in countries of the Warschau pact before the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. This being said, I love a good debate and John Mearsheimer is a clear and intelligent man, and is probably on point when talking about causes and consequences of this conflict.

[@leewinslett2592]

I LOVE Professor Mearsheimer, and he’s often right…but de facto, NATO has expanded and gotten stronger. World events and motivations of superpowers are unpredictable to the extreme.

[@bobdeverell]

NATO has certainly gotten larger but it seems to me that it's military is very significantly weaker than it was 20 years ago.

[@JIu4Ho]

NATO is in crisis at the moment. NATO is about to get "reputational hit" from the defeat in Ukraine even though they don't fight there, but only supply ammo and etc. Also trump it seems is about to win next elections and he is not a big fan of wasting money in NATO.

[@markharcourt2214]

NATO will always get bigger. It has to pay wages for unelected peoples, and to fulfil NATO military obligations by purchasing military equipment from the US. To continually pay for increased wages and increasing prices of military equipment, NATO requires more countries to contribute $. But remember, its all for your safety

[@Asheve]

@@markharcourt2214the main thing which nato imo isn’t wages and etc it’s leverage over eu countries for US

[@markharcourt2214]

@@Asheve Yes, thats another "benefit and feature", similar to The unelected EU politicians to tell elected presidents of countries what to do. If they don't, they just withhold money from them.

[@robray111]

I hadn't known anything about this and with the ongoing war most sources have now become too biased for my taste. So this blast from the past paints a much more credible viewpoint, for which I’m grateful. Having said that, I think his consequences weren’t as well thought out as the logical chain that lead up to the war. Because of the war, NATO has become relevant again, Western Europe has become independent of Russian Natural gas, and the European militaries are re-arming. Eventually, we may even see Russia turn into an agricultural appendix of China, whereas had events followed Prof. Mearsheimer’s logic, it would still very much be a superpower today

[@supachaichanteing3586]

Prof John is one of the most distinguished IR professor. His theory is logic, being demonstrated very clear and right all the times when Russia tooked control over eastern of Ukraine, the crisis happened 6 years later. It the point of my view from Thailand.

[@youseffarawila8125]

The professor is obviously right. One exception is that we the people lost control over our government and handed the reins to special interests that are passionate on behalf of a foreign country. We are no longer rational nor benign. Achtung!

[@googleaccountuser3116]

Wrong terminology. A crisis is usually an unintentional national event. A war is per definition an intentional international event. This is a war not a crisis.

[@johnpayne498]

He also predicted there was no way Russia would attack Ukraine.

[@Zzzk155]

As political scientist, Mearsheimer's prediction doesn't always right. And on some other occasion he himself humbly admit that not all his prediction become reality

[@johnpayne498]

@@Zzzk155 Then maybe not introduce him as the guy who predicts stuff correctly? That ok?

[@laryxislust6664]

I think he said Russia would ukraine if it were to join NATO​@@johnpayne498

this in a context in which NATO expansion stopped. But it was precisely the Ukrainian attempt to join NATO that triggered the war...Even today, his view is that the Russian position is not to take over the entire country, it is not a question of imperialist expansion, but of confronting warlike and fascist expansionism on its border. And in fact, Ukraine will most likely be defeated, there will be a change of government and it will probably have to accept a position of neutrality if it wants to maintain peace and rebuild itself.

[@Zzzk155]

@@johnpayne498 what's your point in that? Political scientist getting wrong in prediction is not rare occasion. There's no way everybody can predict everything precisely. So it's still ok to claim he's prediction is right because other of his prediction came true (war in Ukraine, antagonism between US and Russia + China or the return of great power politics)

[@FEDISFEDUP]

Americans have never started tasting the real power of power until the fall of Soviet Union and this tadting will teach them to pay attention to the history although they are still very young.

[@siddharthelango4316]

Prophetic

[@cassiojp]

No, he just read the events unfolding 6 years earlier.

[@antoniescargo1529]

2014 Regime change in Kiev. Victoria Nudelman. 😮

[@MI6.69]

Hello dear professor, I always listen to you with pleasure!!! I just want to comment briefly. USA Western World THINKING LIKE A RATIONAL PERSON! and Russia acts like a nomadic tribe! they are inside you... Draw conclusions please

[@tameimpala37]

If you spend your day making predictions you are to get a few right. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

[@richardbishop6752]

Peter zeihan had a pretty acurate assessment like 10 -12yrs ago as well