Programmers gone in 5 years | Prime Reacts

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[@benaloney]

In 5 years, I’ll be cleaning up AI tech debt in a React code base…

[@ggm000]

its like when people keep saying "PHP is dead"

[@montecristo7963]

I'm learning mern stack dev now is it still worth it? or i should give up my learning journey and go find other field ?

[@RaZziaN1]

mern is worst choice to learn if u want to land job, at least if u don't have experience already.

[@montecristo7963]

@@RaZziaN1 Ok, what should i learn instead ? android dev with kotlin or java or what ?

[@olabiedev5418]

it depends on where you live , most job interviews will contain stuff about DSA and wants you to solve problems so study DSA a long with mern or whatever you end up choosing, @@montecristo7963

[@aarholodian]

@@montecristo7963 Not to be mean but if you have to ask this kind of question, you should learn fundamentals of computer science first, particularly as part of a college degree. Learning a "stack" will not get you a job in the current market, especially not mern

[@warrenrutledge8540]

As someone with 40 years in IT, I can tell you that 30 somethings in every decade have declared that there will be no programmers in the future. Relational databases and 4th generation report writers (80s), object oriented programming (90s), web services (00s), low code development (10s), and now AI (20s). Each one improved things and made it possible to make bigger, better systems but I have yet to see programming go away.

[@codingcrashkurse6429]

And if it goes away - so what? Still enough to do in the IT Field^^

[@STEELO-247]

I'm so glad someone finally said this.

[@FirstLast-gk6lg]

This is obviously different

[@GalacticSnake]

If you don't see how AI is completely different from those other things your past experience has totally blinded you.

[@slicer2938]

actually funny thing with all those predictions. we've needed programmers more than ever. AI is not going to replace Programmers. AI is just a buzzword rn because of Chatgpt. most people aren't aware of what AI actually does and right now there is only speculation theres no valid proof we'll get rid of programmers in any capacity.

[@mikolv21]

In order for AI to ever replace programmers, customers/product managers will have to be able to clearly define the requirements and that will never happen.

[@nickwoodward819]

yup, and relying on a machine's interpretation of any spoken language is a recipe for disaster, even if the requirements do seem clear in english.

[@pinatacolada7986]

Exactly, expert programmers will become expert question askers and answer checkers. And the cowboys unable to clearly define the requirements will inevitably deliver buggy software, reinforcing the need for expert question askers.

[@KleptomaniacJames]

Is this a joke or cope?

[@almazingsk8er]

@@KleptomaniacJames A little over-generalized but I think it is genuine. For me, I find it very hard to see a world anytime soon that has enough foresight to allow AI to fully handle coding all new features in enterprise software. Not until AI can process, understand, and take into consideration a large microservice codebase. So many requests come in from different product managers, and with no/little oversight, it is SO EASY to introduce bugs. Or it's possible to introduce bugs that are hard to catch, that can get lost and build into really ugly monsters. That also brings in the question of data privacy. What company would be willing to hand over their entire codebase into a closed-source language model? How much would a custom implementation cost?

[@ProjectXiel]

My take on it is that if AI could ever completely replace programmers, it would be the end of commercial software in general, why do you need Adobe products, why do you need KZbin, or Netflix, a CRM, or a video game, if you can just prompt the AI to give you anything you could ever want, this would not only end programmers but entire industries would become obsolete.

[@mytechnotalent]

If we do have AI literally code everything and we release code without any oversight then let the lawsuits prevail when people die from product defects.

[@edwinnunez3233]

ai lawyer checkmate

[@Yummeh]

Eh, if they program better and safer than regular people I don't see how this is situation wil lbe worse that it is now. Nobody is going to use an inferior product.

[@shauas4224]

@@Yummeh no ai is able to write better code consistently, let alone consistently

[@Telhias]

We will put the AI in jail for it just like we do it with corporations that cause people to die... Wait.

[@Yummeh]

@@shauas4224 Currently they can't, I agree. But just wait a couple years down the line, the scientists will not be sitting on their asses.

[@bk1507]

Stability AI CEO is a notorious bullshitter though

[@boismd]

the looks give it away

[@ExecutionMods]

Yeah I could tell. He talks as if AI is currently AGI. GPT4 isn't taking anyone's job.

[@a1337turtle]

it's literally marketing to retarded executives who only think in costs via spreadsheets

[@chordogg]

Yeah it’s all over him. Totally full of shit.

[@floor_3d]

Vested interest... of course a dude who is head of an AI company is going to say that his product will revolutionize something. Such a bullshitter

[@austinedeclan10]

If AI will be good enough to create entire software without human guidance, what makes the business types think it won't be able to do their jobs as well? If AI becomes better than humans at coding, it'll also be better than humans at running businesses.

[@henryvaneyk3769]

Yup, no more stock traders, market analysts, investment advisors, etc.

[@CrucialFlowResearch]

You will also have an AI who will spoon feed you processed food, because human beings doing anything themselves is so uncool

[@trappedcat3615]

AI will never master cleaning toilets or properly making a bed. Janitors and housekeepers have the best job security.

[@PERLADLC]

An important aspect of this is the social/human aspect. A lot of aspects of business are related to people, your trust in them, etc. People might still want to do business with people that’s why people / customer facing roles are probably safer in short term.

[@austinedeclan10]

@PERLADLC The roles that interface with clients and investors will only exist to be mouthpieces for the AI CEO program

[@bjorntrollowsky4279]

Any developer who was so lazy to not check properly how generative AI and machine learning works should believe this statement as it might be true for them specifically :) As for those who actually understand how these technologies work at least on a basic level, they simply dont have such fears.

[@dehancedmedia2900]

SO true lol, if you are a developer who genuinely believes ai will make your job obsolete then you are probably right

[@zerkxes9716]

don't tell them lol

[@Yummeh]

Sure, currently they just use your input tokens to predict some related output tokens, but what about 5 to 10 years.

[@zerkxes9716]

@@Yummeh AI and ML will only provide you with solutions that already exist. It cannot think. Its only a probability model. It does not derserve so much credit

[@narcos1024]

I've been learning code for the last 2 years and I can confidently say that AI will never take our jobs (it helps), unless quantum computers come along and even so i don't think so. There's way to many variables that AI just can't deal with.

[@SirSomnolent]

It's always good to remember that the modern world is one good solar flare from being complete board flip

[@Yummeh]

The most it will do is knock out some power grids and or satellites.

[@shirkit5798]

@@Yummeh not if it`s a grand one my friend. But probably will never happen

[@koxafis]

​@@shirkit5798 Agree, but I think we are just lucky that we haven't had a serious world wide disruption.

[@Burbun]

I've seen this a few times, that people would just forget how to make electronics is some magical thinking by technophobes.

[@SirSomnolent]

@@Burbun everything is magic. For example, you have no ability to feed yourself yet every day, you eat.

[@alexaneals8194]

We can't even replace Cobol as a language. How in the world are we going to replace programmers with AI?

[@c_ornato]

"This new technology is making most of your programming skills obsolete by automating the process! You'll be out of a job in 5 years!" Words uttered after: The invention of punch cards The invention of screen+keyboard interfaces The invention of compilers and high-level languages The invention of IDEs The invention of no-code platforms The invention of AI And yet the job market is better for programmers now than it was in 1969, even though coding has only gotten simpler since. And although it's gotten easier, it's only made our projects more and more elaborate. The reality is that, as with any engineering job, better technology doing most of the work for you only allows for you to reach a new level of complexity. ChatGPT could probably figure out how to make a bridge that's better than those built in the early 20th century, yet I don't see any architects getting worried about their job.

[@sacha9593]

"And although it's gotten easier, it's only made our projects more and more elaborate." I agree: thanks to AI each web developer will be able to works on its own custom JS framework.

[@sharklion3]

I completely agree with this take. l would even go so far as to say worrying about your job "disappearing" if you don't work hard enough is just alarmism. In the 90's programming was way harder and way more technologically limited than it is now (higher barrier for entry and more limited resources for learning and coding), so wouldn't that imply more inexperienced programmers enter the workforce over time? I would say in today's world there are actually many more inexperienced programmers in the workforce because the barrier for entry has lowered and they can rely on modern tooling.

[@aes0p895]

And it's not even AI, it's just language models trained on the syntax of programming. They don't actually understand anything.

[@me-low-key]

Generative Ai is fundamentally different tho? If we arrived at affordable AI agents that are better than let's say 25%, 50% or 75% of Software engineers then at least 25%, 50% and 75% , respectively, of Software engineers will be replaced. What metric we use to evaluate "better"? I personally don't know.

[@someoneelse5005]

@@me-low-key The problem with generative AI is that it doesn't fundamentally understand anything. Take chatgpt for example, a GPT is completing sentences. It is not solving problems. This is a very important distinction, there are a lot of jobs that can be automated through this,m but none of them require you to think that much in first place. Engineering of any kind if not one of those jobs.

[@keyboard_g]

If the relationship between devs and ai becomes remotely adversarial, the AI will be toppled with dick jokes and obscure nerd references so fast.

[@HyperFocusMarshmallow]

That’s how we achieve alignment for sure. Make sure the AI is really prude! 😊

[@freedustin]

Yeah but it won't be in training mode anymore by that point.

[@angelr194]

@@freedustin It would need to enter in training mode at least for a moment always, there is always a bug, ALWAYS

[@ra2enjoyer708]

@@freedustin It is always in training mode, otherwise its data becomes stale. Much like with the current chatgpt which is frozen at time of reddit before Biden got elected.

[@KleptomaniacJames]

is this a joke or cope?

[@n00blamer]

At this point AI is really good for indexing documentation. I can ask: "How to resize X11 Window with XCB", and it will give a code snippet that more likely than not will work (more or less). It saves time, but you can't just copy-paste the code you still have to read it, understand it and how it fits into what you're creating. It's like a consultant that knows a lot of stuff. Five years to completely replace programmers, probably not.

[@someverycool4552]

It could only happen if there's enough emergent behaviour. To me the biggest surprise of all of this has been the emergent capabilities. So if during this 5 years the magnitude of computing and complexity of LLMs or any other AI is increased enough times, will this bring in new emergent behaviour that could replace humans? Obviously we don't know, but I also don't think it can be said not to happen, due to the sheer advance GPT has made seemingly out of nowhere.

[@nickwoodward819]

@@someverycool4552 we do know. emergent behaviour is the result of mistaken methodology rather than evidence that LLMs are somehow more than the sum of their parts.

[@ifstatementifstatement2704]

Exactly

[@KleptomaniacJames]

@@nickwoodward819 we absolutely do not know, and even if we did, we don't know what that looks like in five years.

[@InsertName74284]

Absolutely not, while AI may provide good snippets sometimes they are often full with small errors. One time I asked chatgpt about syntax for a basic compute shader, it provided something that looked good but was in fact wrong and since compute shaders have VERY limited debugging and only throw error "kernel X not found" if something happens (didnt know it at the time nor did gpt) I spent like 1-1.5 days debugging, I would have spent like 1h reading docs instead (didnt know where to find them nor anything about code structure at the time) if I did not, told an senior collegue and he laughed and told me "AI is not that advanced ESPECIALLY for gamedev, dont use it", have asked it a couple of times since then to test if it got better and nope every single time it has hard to detect bug that usually will lead to late runtime failure or tank performance (even when asked about a way that uses better techniques), and since gpt has gotten better over time I am not wasting my time on that ever again.

[@SimGunther]

Contrary to Forest Knight and the StableAI bozo in the thumbnail, there'll be more software engineers, but less programmers because we're all validating everyone's garbage prompts to do the same thing we've been doing for 80 years: Making the rich richer and the poor poorer

[@pinnacle4616]

can someone explain this to me like im 5

[@HyperionStudiosDE]

muh gommunism

[@0re0n]

You need to be a terminally online zoomer to seriously believe poor people in 2023 live worse than 70-80 years ago.

[@hungrymusicwolf]

@@pinnacle4616 ​Everyone is getting code by asking eg. ChatGPT (or other AI), that code is then placed into code bases. The current AI was trained on code from the last 80 years. So basically we're taking old poorly written code and then applying the "make a copy using a printer, then make a copy of the copy, ad infinitum" problem and the "bad programmers wrote 90% of the prompts that led to the code that came out of AI that AI was trained on" problem. So like you're 5: AI was trained by old code with poor standards. Programmers with little understanding wrote poor questions to AI resulting in poor code. AI then learns from its own code (which leads to the copy of a copy problem) and on top of that most of that code was a result of people asking poor questions. At least that's what I think he meant. I'm stupid too so I might be wrong.

[@rdococ]

And I can almost guarantee that your worldview is shaped by the 'rich' towards that goal.

[@kennethbeal]

Thank you, loved this: "Just use Vim and enjoy your life." Back in the 90s I studied nanotechnology. One "vision of the future" was that tiny robots would be able to handle all our needs, and the future would be "relationships and entertainment." Seems like we're arriving, at different paces and rates. Thank you! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours.

[@henryvaneyk3769]

Ì hate to break it to this cupcake, but there will be more programmers than now. This from a developer that has been coding for 34 years, and was told this many times before. These people probably have no clue that coding is at most 25% of the work we do.

[@helbertgascon]

As I always say... there are millions of people capable of speaking fluent english but there are only thousands of people capable of writing good songs, poems, story. What AI is capable of is just writing the language. It can't compose a great codebase. Even if it becomes AGI. AI works by generating context based on your prompt. It guesses the next word/symbol to use based on how it was trained. It does not have the capability to think. It can only guess.

[@Yummeh]

@@helbertgascon Do you really think the current LLM's are the final product, lol. This is just one iteration in creating an AI that can think for itself.

[@realhumanbean7915]

​@@Yummeh Something which will totally occur within the next 5 years.

[@Yummeh]

@@realhumanbean7915 did you expect ChatGPT 5 years ago? Who knows how fast it will go, not saying it will but it would be stupid to disregard it.

[@helbertgascon]

@@Yummeh do you even believe data scientists would shoot themselves on the foot? If they create an AI that's capable of replacing their jobs then why would they do it? Current LLMs can do better maths than programming today. If I have an LLM that's capable of that then what's stopping me and millions of other people from using it to create our own LLMs to use for free? Can't we just prompt it "create a python script that scrapes the whole internet for all information and compile it as training data then use it to build me a AI Model of my own." Then OpenAI goes out of business 🤣

[@gillall4828]

The AI can steal my job, but can't steal my love to programming. Simple like that!

[@mr.k8660]

yh but your love to programming won't be transformed into money anymore...

[@shinoobie1549]

you're gonna love programming at the homeless shelter or on the street

[@FreeSenpai]

it just might, make money for myself instead of a dumb mba @@mr.k8660

[@QuestForGood]

@@shinoobie1549 🤣🤣

[@someverycool4552]

@@mr.k8660 So you buy option calls into any companies that have change of reaching AGI. You will be set for life. Then you just continue programming for fun.

[@-TheBugLord]

Honestly, I've seen a lot of newbie programmers perform worse due to AI. They overly rely on it and do not practice critical thinking

[@nileshkujur8025]

Don't chase trends. Just do things that you actually like.

[@agustinlado]

LOL that poll. _Mild_ change? My god the delusion! You don't need software development to be 100% automated for the job market to get completely out of whack. Pretending there'll be no or _mild_ change is just plain stupid.

[@Kaldrax]

On one of those threads someone stated, that they think there wouldn’t be software developers anymore, because the domain experts could just tell the AI what they need and it makes it for them. A) there is a big difference between a software developer and a programmer and B) None of the domain experts at my company are even capable of defining their process requirements. They cannot articulate what they need, and what they want is most of the time not what they need.

[@xybersurfer]

yes. people often don't realize that we do much more than just write code. on the other hand, it gives the domain experts the chance to learn the same lessons

[@HarpreetSingh-xg2zm]

The consequences of not articulating clearly aren’t as strong with ai. If ai can make the program in a few minutes and it was not to your requirements, you can iterate and have it redone. That’s hard to do currently because software development takes much longer.

[@Kaldrax]

@@HarpreetSingh-xg2zm That's not my point. The problem is people who are not developers do not know what they really want. They are missing abstract thinking/don't consider side effects or dependencies of other company departments. That's where developers are needed for requirements. Current AI systems cannot think about the big picture, as soon as it gets somewhat complex, GPT4/o faulters.

[@delucaluigi2]

If that’s true it should be translated like this -> There are no workers at all in 5 years. If you can get rid of programmers you can get rid of anyone else.

[@kuhluhOG]

getting rid of manufacturing workers and crafts(wo)men is considerably harder seriously, programming is something which happens pretty much entirely on a computer building a toilet/house/etc. would require pretty darn complicated robots which also incorporate lots of experience (and most people working these can't even put these experiences into words)

[@Sestaak]

Bad, out-of-touch take.

[@shlokbhakta2893]

This idea does hold water though, if the AI has access to the resources of a company as a ceo then who is to say the ai won’t invest in robots to replace jobs like welding, if something can generate perfect welds every time there may be some cost incentive there. Just speculation not what I believe just like thinking of conversations from another angle

[@delucaluigi2]

@@kuhluhOG with robots and ai installed you can substitute also all of them

[@codyt_arsis6698]

@@kuhluhOGIf AI can substitute for world-class programmers, it possesses the ability to design and construct entire houses, potentially automating up to 90% of jobs. Consequently, this advancement could lead to the reduction of 90% of roles, including those of plumbers, carpenters, welders, and more.

[@gwaptiva]

And we'll all be in flying cars. Without actually watching the vid (yet), my money is on Shill for OpenAI (or someone other machine learning thing that has nothing to do with AI)

[@nryle]

You say shill for open ai, my immediate thought is incompetent doomer rationalizing not improving. Time to watch and see 😅

[@y00t00b3r]

and what was your conclusion?@@nryle

[@nryle]

@@y00t00b3r he didn't actually watch the video

[@nryle]

@@y00t00b3r I looked again, I thought the tweet was a video.

[@Telhias]

I feel like, rather than programmers, we will have software engineers. You won't be writing much of the minutiae of your own code, but rather arranging ready-made and ai-made pieces. I also foresee the birth of new, even more high-level languages that facilitate communication with AI to create code much more rapidly. Something more akin to the psuedocode flowcharts that AI would be capable of interpreting and implementing. Every software engineer would be a true 10x developer allowing even lone indie developers to create projects much more complex in scope.

[@CrucialFlowResearch]

You will also have an AI who will spoon feed you processed food, because human beings doing anything themselves is so uncool

[@jacksonlevine9236]

No way, the minutia is what the AI sucks at lol. I could way more imagine the AI making overall design choices while humans implement the minutia.

[@Telhias]

@@jacksonlevine9236 In my experience it is the opposite. AI is good at giving you these simple, answers and implementations to common problems however it sucks at putting them together into a more coherent whole. AI sucks at the overall design way too much and that is something I don't see it improving on. There are not enough examples (for a dataset) of translating an idea for a project into a design plan for it. As such an AI is incapable of learning it. An AI tends to go for broad, generic and non-specific statements - perfect for a corporate non-speak and creating boilerplate - however if you press it to give concrete examples of an implementation it trips and hallucinates. Moreover if you have a human overseeing AI work and putting it together, you can ensure that it is working. If AI oversees human workers, you will never know if the project plan is viable and AI is not simply creating busywork. AI needs supervision. If its work is not quality controlled then it is useless. If you oversee an AI design work you may as well do it yourself. As such, if AI won't improve on minutiae it will be just another tool rather than the revolution everyone talks about.

[@jacksonlevine9236]

@@Telhias After thinking more about it, I don't think it will take over either job. Both require a human to make sure it's not doing dumb shit 😂

[@Telhias]

@@jacksonlevine9236 Yep.

[@kurt7020]

"There are no programmers in 5 years." - AI strongly disagrees. Having written a lot of (terrible) code with LLMs - I strongly disagree.

[@aes0p895]

embarrassing opinion. How do you check to make sure things actually work like the robot claims? Make it pinky swear?

[@heckyes]

If there are no programmers required in 5 years then it seems like there will be no economy left that we can recognize and we'll be entering into the Star Trek universe. AI will just program itself, to build itself, and build everything else.

[@AYSMOKASHI]

my backup plan is to take a little hut in the woods farm and hunt

[@dissident1337]

This is the fantasy of CEOs who don't know anything about tech.

[@MikePaixao]

Future coders will just be who is best at arguing with Ai until it delivers? we finally did it! we managed to make everyone a producer!? 🙃

[@edumorangobolcombr]

Which one is easier to replace with AI, programmers or CEOs?

[@Teixas666]

id say the CEOs because we are dealing with decision making being done thru algorithms, something today's CEO's may already be doing anyway and isn't mainline already because of he lack of legislation around it(when it comes to responsibility) unless we were ot hit the singularity in the near future programmers are unlikely ot ever become irrelevant(tho a lot of the busy work is prone ot automation)

[@kevgoeswoof]

Programmers. Even if most are paid over a country's respective national average, they have no unions in many countries and CEOs are most of the time already rich and powerful fucks. (But those companies will then create bad software products and experiences of course.)

[@Runescapian0wner]

@@Teixas666 There is a reason CEO's make more money than those below them. They serve as the face of the company, embodying the company's vision and goals to the public. CEOs navigate negotiations, forging deals that propel the company toward greater heights, solidifying their pivotal position at the helm of corporate leadership. AI is based of information it's fed. How does AI solve a problem that has never been solved or create innovations that have never been thought of? The amount of programmers a company has can be replaced with AI, but not all. They will still need programmers to incorporate the AI's output.

[@Teixas666]

make no mistake here: i do not disagree with you, i'm well aware of the reasons CEOs are compensated the way they are, but the matter in discussion was about what job is more prone to automation much like the programmers tsome of the roles of a CEO can be offloaded to automation, provided they dont do it on any critical decision making that requires an otherwise active participation(mainly because as both myself and you alluded, the responsibility involved CANNOT be offloaded). but day to day and inconsequential decisions are plenty and i would not blame them if they figured some automation already takes place on the hush hush@@Runescapian0wner

[@tongobong1]

I am quite concerned about the demand and supply of programmers in the next 5 years. If there will be too many programmers competing for too few jobs then salaries will go way down and it is going to be hard to get a job even for much lower salary than you can get now.

[@ttcc5273]

If there are more jobs than programmers to fill the jobs, salaries will increase. Weird wild stuff.

[@poseiso]

If AI can ACTUALLY replace real programmer we're going to have a larger problem to worry about than losing job lmao

[@rixis2940]

I think we're still too deep into the AI hypetrain to make any good predictions. Although I think the advice to learn more than just JavaScript and React is good.

[@PandemonicHypercube]

This is good advice even in the complete absence of AI. If a technology is basically the default setting that a university graduate comes out of school with, then it's never going to be as valuable as a skill that few have chosen to master

[@c4tubo]

LLM's can only code as good as all the code it can find already on the internet. If all the new code that needs to be created already exists on the internet, why would programmers still be writing any new code? LLM's cannot create anything new. If you are a programmer that doesn't think human programmers are creating anything new, then just quit now.

[@DemHoNMomentz]

Also consider the fact that the average code making up the training data is... average, not great.

[@Opama-devlogs]

And most of the code that you can find on the internet is learning material code and some public small projects that is poorly documented not production code that works

[@cricque3091]

Well I have 25 years experience in programming on a pro level. But actually been programming for almost 35 years (since I was 10). I tried copilot, chatgpt ... This week I had a task to complete. Each AI just told me "this is way too complex". Even when specifying everything this could not reproduce much or any working code. And the code most of the time it suggests really is not production ready. But hey it can autocomplete my line ... sometimes ... And yes tedious code it can produce. But you do save time, instead of doing alt tab and asking Google, you ask your favorite AI first. If that doesn't really do it, you can still ask Google. So you might save some time. Unit tests is another thing we all like ... But the unit tests produced are often sub standard. Yes it can generate your todo list with unit tests. It can help you, but understanding what someone actually wants and needs is a skill that is going to take ages. What do you need ? A customer response: a website !

[@yapdog]

As with all things that will be affected by (re)Generative AI, there'll be a lot less opportunities out there, as the barriers for entry will be raised higher every coming year. Why? Did you notice the "(re)" that I placed in front of "Generative"? These tools don't really generate anything. They're used to regurgitate--with variance--existing data. They're not intelligent in the least. However, in order for them to continue to be useful, they require new data. Only those who're truly capable will be able to provide that data, and thus their value will increase... but only after this sugar rush period with (re)Generative AI subsides.

[@JacquesvanWyk]

I agree 100% with you here. I hate this trend these days of people trying to scare other people with AI will take your job. I dont understand how someone that is currently a developer saying these things. I will say yes learn ai and use it to make yourself a better developer yes thats what i am doing.

[@kell7689]

The Vim argument is kinda strange and kinda hilarious but otherwise I think you're on the right track

[@JW-gm6wr]

Programmers from India should have been gone long time ago for all this crap they are producing....

[@CaimAstraea]

You are overestimating thes LLM fml no cap. Most of the time it's spewing unusable garbage , I have to correct it multiple times , it should be like this and that and it's always apologetic and whatnot. It's great though for repetitive / generative tasks.

[@adamwdotnet]

In 5 years we’ll look back at the AI hype like all of the previous no code / low codes hypes

[@xeros4000]

eh, maybe we will still need programmers, to fight back against the rogue AIs trying to take over the net. nobody can really predict what will happen 5 years from now.

[@atlanticamorphine]

There is a finite amount of good programmers who love what they do, there is an infinite amount of work to be done and only more of it, as there are more and more computers around.

[@DemHoNMomentz]

Here's the three likely scenarios/interpretations that would make his statement correct: 1. AI code generation becomes accessible, non-restrictive and easily integrated into IDE's, and for some reason a new term other than programmer is used to describe developers who make use of it. 2. Artificial general intelligence is discovered, making human labour obsolete all-together (although people would still program recreationally, I'm assuming he means no professional programmers). 3. A Cataclysmic event that sends humanity back to the stoneage or wipes us out all-together. Personally I think the third one is the most likely to happen within 5 years out of the three.

[@shyshka_]

robotics and AI are 2 different things. AGI doesnt mean all jobs are replaced, because you still need to put the AGI in a physical vessel, to do the things you want for you. And frankly robotics has been lagging behind AI for decades now

[@innocentsmith6091]

@@shyshka_ And the biggest problem with that is the same reason all crustaceans become crabs. The laws of nature put restrictions on size, shape, motion, senses, power generation and use, replication, and self-repair, that will effectively mean that purpose-built robots (what we have now) will always make more sense than trying to make androids. Human evolution already took all of the concessions into account. Maybe you can do better with a machine, but making a baby is a lot easier.

[@MadisonKanna]

great video it seems like everyone who says "programming will disappear in 5 years" is selling no-code tools or profitting off the the fear in some way

[@Daijyobanai]

" JUST USE VIM, ENJOY YOUR LIFE" - primeagen 2024

[@mariovrpereira]

Your final comment was exactly what I needed to hear. Your thoughts always inspire me, but the end of this video was precisely what I needed. Thanks!

[@Muaahaa]

No programmers is hard to fathom, but much fewer? I can see that.

[@HyperFocusMarshmallow]

I honestly don’t know. AI-progress is hard to predict. The boundary conditions are the following. - We could not replace every programmer with AI today. - Eventually we probably will. Will it happen in five years? Not sure about that. I doubt it will replace everyone in that span but it’s very plausible that it might remove the need for many software tasks that currently need developers. But it might even be that we will need more developers for a while because a developer with an AI could achieve more. A company with such a developer would get more return and be able to hire another developer etc. The limiting factor would be what kind of products we can imagine in tandem with an Ai. If the most lucrative ideas requires almost no developer skill to achieve together with AI, then non-developers might be cheaper. And on the extreme, if AI would become very powerful and fully autonomous and generates things on its own without our input, aligned or not, then we might not need anyone for anything really. 😂 In five years though? My best guess is that we will have need for developers in five years and more. But if at some point we don’t need developers, I’d be hard pressed to guess what occupation would be a safe alternative. Probably many things in the short run, but in the long run? Who knows. I wouldn’t want to be a guidance counselor.

[@lucashunter6441]

physical labor will be safe for a while. Blue collar robotics automation is lagging behind white collar AI automation. So being a deckhand on a ship, a roofer, or a plumber will be safe for the foreseeable future.

[@wzywg]

All I ever do is write code to move data, from one place to another. I don't see, in 5 years, AI figuring out how to connect a shitty CRM to a shitty legacy PHP app.

[@shriomtrivedi1276]

New here. Can anyone tell me what is a react kitty?

[@noeljose]

AI is gonna replace you Soy devs: "ho....nooo!!!!!!!... we are doomed" Real Devs: "Don't Give Me Hope"

[@asdqwe4427]

If there will be no programmers, there will be nothing else either.

[@grinsk3ks]

There will be no programmers because, nobody is learning to code anymore. They think they don't need to and use ai instead. All the real programmers will be gods in 5ys.

[@lunaticberserker5869]

What's the point of struggling with prompts for 20 lines of code when you can just write and get over it?

[@BruderRaziel]

The future is not skynet, it is R2D2 where some advanced "thinking"-imitating machines will need memory wipes regularly.

[@CallousCoder]

Oh there will still be a lot of developers. Because AI has no domain specific knowledge, you have problems with IP infringement, because you don’t know where certain code blocks are stolen from. AI has little concept of lowlevel software it can’t really red schematics and specs and figure out memory maps for hardware. Let alone write bootstrap code to start new hardware. Especially new hardware with new instructions 😊

[@CallousCoder]

@@RPG_Guy-fx8ns yeah so I’m training a model with data I only know as a hardware designer and software engineer…. Seems like a waste of time and effort, it’s kiem hiring an intern and training him up, by that time it’s trained I already done it. And some code is literally stolen line for line! The rarer the prompt the more likely. At least in useless chatgpt. And currently chartgpt can’t process schematics and schematics are finicky because it doesn’t show all the details like the adresses of hardware ports anymore with these systems on a chip or i2c and other bus technology. Then comes knowledge domains, AI doesn’t know about specific knowledge domains as rules and regulations are never completely specified to the letter (that’s how law works), so you’ll need actual intelligence to figure it out and submit your ideas to whoever is going to enforce those if they meet their standards. And that’s even in simple business software already. In critical applications it’s far far more complex. You will get conflicting information and you need to make a choice and be sure to well document your reasoning for those choices. So when it comes to a dispute you can show you thought it well through and can defend your case. Let’s bet that there will be not less developers required in the next 5 years! AI is only going to help do the tedious bits, like scaffolding and basic straight forward algorithms well. And you still need developers to prompt and check the cancer that’s the code AI generated works and fits your domain and coding requirements

[@jorgamund07]

Yes, there will be 0 programmers in 5 years. Then there will be 1 programmer paid $1 million/hr because people are desperate to fix all the bad AI code. Then he'll subcontract out, and there will be 2 programmers making $500k/hr. Then 4 making $250k/hr, etc... until we rebuild the whole dang industry.

[@Ziggity]

Absolute best case scenraio for AI is that we don't need "code monkeys" anymore. I don't know a single code monkey, people are paid for their problem solving skills.

[@miloszivkovic6256]

I had an argument with a colegue recently. If we take Pareto (80/20) principle as basis for every project ie. it takes 20% of time to do 80% of work and 80% of time to do last 20% of work we see that generative AI is not capable of producing consistent solution, it only speeds up the first 20% of time it takes to setup general project outline. This happens because AI is not precise it's simply statistics, in art these imperfections can be designated as style but programming requires precision.

[@vitalyl1327]

Programmer is not the one who write code. Programmer is the one who interrogate the users / stakeholders of all kinds and translate their mental gibberish into a coherent view of what need to be done. AI is not going to make this task much easier.

[@mohamedh.guelleh630]

It's like saying calculators will replace mathematicians. If that's the case, then you were always replaceable. AI is a tool, use it to be productive or become obsolete.

[@peddfast]

Thats essentially what programming is, in a more detailed manner that computers can understand. Programming is essentially "I want the system to work like this". High level languages abstract away some of the more specific details. Natural language is one such language except it is not made for specifying concrete requirements.

[@rishabhkaushik22]

Hypothesis: "The face of the ceo looks like..." Proof: Lemma 1: The name of company is HuggingFace Lemma 2: "Hug" literally means to "take a s#it" in hindi. And the suffix "ing" is used to form present participles, making it present continuous tense. Conclusion: Prime has a third sense and is absolutely korrrrrrrrekt. Ergo ad absurdum. Et tu brute. etc etc

[@EricMazzoni]

Wasn't Stability AI trying to sell itself due to financial issues? Yea, if I was him, and I wanted to cash out with at least a billion in the bank, I would say the same thing. I would be at the door of Salesforce, on my knees, pleading with them to watch my presentation. But I work in content marketing, and Ai is, in actuality, decimating the industry. But now, instead of fixing garbage writing bought for $1 on Fiverr, I get to try and make generic and repetitive AI writing sound original. Not sure which is worse 😅

[@kjetilhvalstrand1009]

If there are no junior developers, there wont be any senior developers. It be horrible to find anyone.

[@Brunoenribeiro]

Maybe, just maybe, the CEO of Stabillity AI went a little overboard about the effects of AI? ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

[@sergiuc_5010]

That was actually wholesome. Thank you mustache guy! You seem like a decent dude.

[@RoyRope]

Prime please for the love of god, make a mark in your calendar for over 5 years and do a new video then and flame his ass off when we still program.

[@rando521]

i highly doubt ai can write code in par with a good dev. because its training data is from the average dev and the average dev can make a lot of mistakes.

[@PaperBenni]

I'm sorry but the take that learning vim and the terminal would save you from master programmer AIs were they to exist is utterly insane. If you pretend that you understand more about what happens when you type npm run build that if you click the build button in a GUI is bs. I use vim because it's more fun that intellij, but I recognize that the end result of my work is the same regardless of the IDE I use, the only difference being minor speed and quality fluctuations.

[@omegaman7377]

I think it is possible because the majority of employers are over estimating the capacity of AI . And the salaries of devs might fall a lot because their impression of the AI making the majority of the work.

[@neopabo]

This isn't a crazy take. You only three things to happen to automate a job fully: 1: Be able to explain the process 2: Be able to plan 3: Be able to execute AI can already do all 3. The few people who managed to merge it together just want to monopolize it, or are terrified at what they made

[@SpookySkeleton738]

"you may as well just buy our stuff now because it's going to replace you" t. guy who's selling stuff why anyone listens to the people SELLING you the ai is beyond me. as usual, i'll believe it when i see it, but i doubt that Transformers will be the technology to replace engineers.

[@wpelfeta]

This is why I'm putting 50% of my paycheck into the stock market. When the cyberpunk corpo dystopia rolls around, I'm going to be one of the shareholders. It's the only way to survive bros.

[@haraldbackfisch1981]

So you support the corporate dystopia u fear... that's the issue with us... no principles at all, just opportunism. Maybe fall for what u believe in? Otherwise you're just another cog in the machine

[@king_atillart]

@@haraldbackfisch1981 idk man, I'd rather be a thriving opportunist than a starving "principled" man

[@me-low-key]

Why would money worth anything if humans are irrelevant?

[@haraldbackfisch1981]

​@@king_atillart fair, but realize that it is the reason why we can't have nice things. There is this wonderful phrase, that goes sth like this: The world will improve when people start planting trees, knowing full well that they won't ever enjoy their shadow. You're just playing a zero-sum game that is only good for fast-lived, egocentric hedonism... and not even great at that tbh...

[@623-x7b]

Every programmer now has a pair programmer so divide roughly by two the need for and unskilled soydevs going first haha

[@pencilcheck]

I would say that "marketing" and "sales" will be gone in 5 years. Lawyers, accountants and doctors will be gone in 5 years, social media tweeters will be gone in 5 years. Programmers/Programming will increase in 5 years

[@AvalancheGameArt]

You know, real software isn't written in python.. excuse me chatgpt language

[@DonaldSMay]

LLMs can only create code by training on large amounts of already existing code. But when the majority of code is AI generated then the training data used to train the code generation model will also be AI generated. This feedback loop will ultimately cause the quality of the output to substantially degrade. It is the same idea if you keep compressing an image. Eventually all of the interesting details (like it actually working) get lost in the noise. How does the AI improve and get better without these human inputs? If there are no more programmers how do these models evolve? I don't understand how that is possible. The AI does not really understand the code (at least not to our definition of understanding) which is why it is able to hallucinate and make up methods that do not even exist. I honestly think that there will be some programmers replaced by this, but they will be entry level at best. The concern though is if there are no entry level jobs, then how do you develop more experienced engineers?

[@leonardooliveira4431]

This is true until page two, because if a AGI is to be created it could think the way we think and be able to rationalize. Said that, yes i think if a AGI was to be created this would replace developers, doctors, engineers and everyone else... This in 5 years? i dont think so

[@oweisyahya5485]

The moment dev is fully automated its the same moment that everything else is fully automated ...

[@bgiv2010]

"Don't plan on Skynet." Oh no planning on universal privatization is totally different. You know... That future thing you said was scarier than AI developers. It's basically the same thing just with less fantasy.

[@chandrap8391]

Dont take it literally. Pls watch Emad's full take. He said... "When everybody is a programmer then nobody is a programmer". Just like how anybody with a Smartphone is a movie maker making videos.. everybody will become a coder making the speciality skill of coding obsolete. Sure, there will be programmers.. but salaries will be abysmal for average Dev Bros making 150K today.

[@BboyKeny]

So in 5 years all the programmers go to heaven?

[@3polygons]

If you think of it... there might be no programmer jobs, but "programmers gone in 5 years"... How?. Maybe working in other stuff, but once a programmer, always a programmer. A jobless programmer is still a programmer :D . Unless we're talking about human extinction in 5 years. :D 💢 (spoiler alert: nope, neither happening) Same reason why despite the much more probable destruction of artists and illustration jobs (sigh, I should know...There go my usual clients, farewell, you'll be missed), a painter will keep being a painter no matter what, even if is forced to only do it by hobby and passion from a certain point when everybody would prefer to hit a stupid button instead of getting the product of human emotions, sweat and tears. There will be, even in an extreme moment - quite far away- some kind of profile of a very techy individual handling the AIs (programming or not) or sth related to it, something that the majority of the population (aka normies) won't want (or feel capable enough) to deal with. I see that too far away, though, and a lot of nuances (legal, sociological, etc) and humanity related factors to complete the puzzle, as to do these wild guesses right now. Still, do I like AI? Heck, no.

[@timedebtor]

My backup for programming is clowning and juggling. What the f*** do you mean there's no backups when there's out of programming. That is a complete lack of creativity. Everyone's going to need clowns when everything is sad.

[@ne2ve2]

Yea, "AI" is an ok tool as of now. Especially if you tweak it in the right direction. Aren't programmers with a background in "AI" will be doing the tweaking? "AI" won't be able to tweak itself, it's freaking stupid. It's incapable of "understanding" anything, it just mimics what it was already fed and alters the result in the "optimal for the query" way. This tech literally feels like a dead end which won't do anything but harm for the economy if some higher ups decide that AI is good enough by itself. Pretty sure it won't be fixed in a decade or two. But by then programmers would probably need to have some experience creating AI models if it truly is a worth tool. This whole "AI will take your job" bandwagon is ridiculous and is usually pushed by people which don't know anything about algorithms behind NN, DL, etc. And if programmers just disappear then who the hell would make AI better? There are so many fields besides videogame development and web development that its nuts and AI *might* do relatively good in the fields where there's a insane amount of data, so basically everyone else is safe but the fields which are currently in exceptionally high demand.

[@TheSkepticSkwerl]

There is zero chance this is true... My job isn't just programming. It's configuring and synchronizing multiple systems. Maybe I won't have to take hours to program something. But chat gpt isn't gonna take that program. Install it. Get it working test it. And so on.

[@richardgreen8569]

Honestly, I needed to hear this. You've really helped to settle a tumultuous internal debate on this. Ultimately I knew what you're saying is spot on how I should feel about it but sure does clear up some doubt having someone I respect lay it out like this, thanks

[@liminal6823]

We're entering a time where AI will eventually perform hundreds, thousands, millions of years of human cognition in minutes or hours. The velocity of this change will not be convenient to anyone. The market will demand software written by these systems and that software will be completely out of reach of human programmer participation. A smart pivot in 2024+ is into quality assurance, system design, formal verification, UX, robotics, creative technology, e/acc, compassion and ethics.

[@RippanCSGO]

Anyone who actually work in software development knows this isn't happening anytime soon. You think AI gonna understand a request from PM's & customers? I understand new grad/self taught programmers think writing code is all we do... hate to break it for you, I'm happy if I can get 2-3 hours of actual coding a day. Will AI change how we work? Yes, it has already done that, but its a tool just like a calculator is for someone working in math. I love using it to write unit tests because thats boring as hell...

[@dietcokeheadd]

The reason why programming can never be fully replaced is it's an ouroboros. AI coding needs a lot of human inputs, and to be trained on human code. It isn't yet inventive or general enough to create new ideas on it's own. They're better for optimizing or providing starting points than they are at finished products. No more programming would be like forcing everyone to use an SDK version that never gets updated.

[@Korrath]

I don't know about programmers, but I'll serve up a different hot take straight from the oven; AI will be better at replacing c suite / upper management in less than 10 years. Including CEOs. The only people that will need to be convinced to do this would be the board of directors of the company. And the lamentation and wailing heard from the LinkedIn fucktards shall be as sweet as music of angels.

[@dsxmachina3737]

That is such a stupid claim. Website-Devs will be gone in 5 years. But Website-Development isn't programming anyway. Change my mind.

[@wdeath]

If AI becomes an engineer(currently it is an Artist, that knows "everything"), then all brain professions will be replaced, except some Phd in math or physics. So many other professions will fall years sooner until programmers fall, because programming is highly engineering job.

[@Delaterius]

Here's your template. Just copy and paste for literally any two professions. "There won't be any X jobs soon, so become a Y. Y jobs could never be affected by advancing technology."

[@rycka7260]

People saying that, are the people that are falling back themselves. If they would evolve as fast as technologies around them, then they would know, that as soon as AI will replace programmers in some menial tasks, they will be doing other, more complicated tasks and projects. Stuff that is done today will be outdated and we will have new languages, new architectures, new patterns, new technologies etc... P.S. and well guess what - AI also needs to be programmed and constantly learned. So essentially what he is saying programmers will be replaced by programmers...

[@baseballMMAgames]

I still build stuff with 1900 era hand tools. I enjoy it. So I personally will always enjoy just building software and systems. Can’t control anything else so fuck it.

[@securedigitsplus]

Programmers will still exist in 5 years, and beyond. In order to program stuff correctly, you need a programmer to make sure something is built correctly. Artificial intelligence will continue to be used, however, some of the things AI does is wrong, wonky, or not to specification. Maybe at some point in the future there will be no need for programmers... But the same could be said about law enforcement, judges, politicians, teachers, doctors, business leaders, et cetera.

[@andermendz]

I mean Tech World keeps moving, if you're going to get stuck in 2023 tech and don't even learn all the new stuff that's coming, then you'll be obsolete in the next 10 years. Anyone who thinks that programming is about learning something about coding and then that's it, will be obsolete.