Property: Into The Depths...

[@Aermydach]

Awesome work, Martin! Your services are invaluable. Please never stop what you're doing.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Many thanks!

[@rogerwells6512]

Hi Martin i am a new zealander living in the bottom of the south island i have been watching your vids for a year now and really enjoy them thankyou for sharing your information

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Cool, thanks - my wife comes come Dunedin!

[@ashthegreat1]

Is Tim Shadbolt still around?

[@mariaantwan7479]

Went to an auction today at Bondi Junction. Reserve price was $1.65. 1 bid of $1.5 - No sale 😬😬😬 Walked around and so many empty shops. Outlook is looking bleak 😰

[@wingkeechan5329]

And 3 months later, same property with reserved price at 1.5m, one bid at 1.35m again rejected... and it goes on...

[@georgekeiser3867]

Do I detect some nuttiness in that comment? How about some religiosity? Please tone it down by at least 37% so that you can pass through the KZbin filter in future. Thank you for your co-operation.

[@georgekeiser3867]

I went to an auction last week in Carlingford. Reserve was $1.6M. No bids. I found out from the agent this week that it sold for $1.52M 2 days after auction. I think people are just too greedy. Especially those that bought recently and need to recoup transaction costs

[@mariaantwan7479]

George Keiser 😂😂 I’m still so confused. I have no idea what I did haha

[@georgekeiser3867]

@@mariaantwan7479 You did nothing (neither did I) - except show empathy to someone who had disappeared for a time. What you tried to do was apply a real world solution to a virtual problem. You have to understand there are heaps of online weirdos here. That's why I told you not to disclose any email a few weeks back. Just don't worry about it and we block any weirdos moving forward 👍👍 btw, how many new subscribers did I get you with my "appeal"?

[@jackmehoff7953]

Thanks for the info Martin. Have been keeping an eye on listings/sales in New Farm Brisbane. One unit has been on the market for about 6 weeks, originally listed 425k +, then offers over 400, 395, and now listed for offers over 375. Was last purchased in 2015 for 400k...

[@anthonycarpenter1449]

Great content Martin. Ive noticed in my suburb, south east melbourne. The main real estate agent for the area that would often achieve the best sold prices and always displayed them is now putting "undisclosed" or "contact agent" on sold properties for more than half of them.

[@Taojas]

There are a sea of listings with no stated price, just: - What would you pay? - Price on Application - Awaiting Price Guide - Negotiable - Contact Agent - Submit all offers - Expressions of Interest* (*This property is being sold by expression of interest, without a price and therefore due to QLD legislation a price guide cannot be provided. This website may have filtered the property into a price bracket for website functionality purposes.) Indicative of where the market is at...

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Very true

[@nikolapaskas2441]

To be safe just offer 50% less from previous high. Wont make mistake

[@graymorkem6759]

Bring Tony back for a spray please Martin. Love his raw honest opinions and agree with most of them.

[@jamesberry3426]

Hi Martin, Been watching norther beaches sydney property closely for six months .Many auctions canceled due to sales before auction and many property sales are at price withheld.When you enquire to the sales agent they say it’s confidential. Why the secret ?Keep doing what you do mate. So honest love this channel.

[@gavin1971]

I have also been monitoring that area. I would guess 70% have withheld the selling price. If they disclose the disappointing sales result other potential sellers in the area will be reluctant to list their property. Wait about 3 months and all sold prices will be known.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks for the info

[@seekerofawareness]

January 2021. The Word Economic Forum summit in Davos. Conveniently themed "The Great Reset". Interesting to say the least.

[@theo.k.corral6895]

"World Economic Forum" one of many CRIMINAL SYNDICATES created, used and funded by the "elites" ( the "elites" create these groups to keep the attention OFF THEM...just a bunch of patsy groups) and to push and implement their EVIL agenda!

[@bajajrakesh10]

Best analyst regarding Property market 👍

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks a lot

[@JJ-wi2uw]

The worst is yet to come.

[@henryholt1359]

There will always be winners and loser's..but long term, our human predicament based on false hope, infinite growth, blindly stripping/ poisoning/destroying the biosphere for the next dollar, and the fantasy of techno fix, reality is there no solution or escape, collapse is imminent.. but nobody wants to go there.

[@charlesponzi9608]

Depends on your perspective. For buyers, the best is yet to come.

[@tomtesoro7994]

'the worst' is ONLY because the SCOMO government has an ideology which belongs in the 'scrooge' era.. OZ has so many natural advantages and a low population ( vs the wealth ) that any moral intelligent political leader could invent, create, project NEW ideas for the regeneration of OZ industry post COVID.. The virus has given us a window into the LIES, deceit, distractions of the neo-liberal SCOMO government for the last 3 elect lions where 'Government debt' WAS NOT USED to provide growth to the oZ economy and the necessary social services the population demands.. ie environment, education, health, private debt, culture.. etc.SCOMO must now be shown for his 'the emperor has no clothes' values.

[@JJ-wi2uw]

@@tomtesoro7994 ALL sides of politics have drunk the Neo-Liberal "Kool-Aid" and we now function in a Global Economy where manufacturing is cheaper elsewhere. Neo-Liberal capitalism does not encourage innovation, it encourages Rent-seeking and a race to the bottom. For far too long the Australian economy has been based on houses, holes (resources) and the immigration ponzi.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

J J bingo

[@bluehorseshoe6599]

Sydney: 176 Sold at Auction, of 604 Auctions scheduled, 72% Clearance Rate! And that folks, is Numberwang Aussie Style 😂😂

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Correct - a silly calculation - meaningless

[@Chris-by8eh]

@Martin: the issue is as I see it. I am 55 years old. and I lived through the "recession we had to have" 1 house and 3 investment properties. Was hell earning enough holding on to them in the recession for 3 years. If you are 47 years old or under, you have never experienced a recession in your working life. They have no frame of reference. They only know of the 'GOOD TIMES" Despite what the government says " I thought recession are needed when the economy runs ahead too hard too fast like 17% interest rate to cool the economy. I am thinking the saying "oh this time it's different."

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Yes, different and more complex.... normal neo-liberal assumptions are not working... so expect a bumpy ride.

[@Shadow1986]

OK, boomer.

[@dasasco8362]

Kin Kora is central QLD and that’s the story across the board thought out the mining sector

[@nickt6965]

I would be very surprised if most of the most stressed property investors were not part of the AirBnB ecosystem and now their income has been completely devastated by all the CoVid19 travel restrictions (both domestic and international) and things are not going to get any better in the near future, international tourism is not going to recover for many years Martin, can you tell how many of these properties were in fact linked to AirBnB prior to CoVid19?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Significant impact, but varies by locale.

[@nickt6965]

@@WalkTheWorldDFA I'll bet that Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane CBDs are the most affected

[@peterlast3200]

Could there be a connection between property investment stress and self funded superannuation?

[@timbassett9766]

Martin , your 40% prediction drop is too conservative

[@timemasterhms]

I'm hoping for 40%, but I'm not sure it will get that bad Australia wide, in every suburb. It'll be the outer suburban estates and inner city large apartment blocks that get hit hardest. The oversupplied stock basically.

[@Mazza666]

@@timemasterhms I'm also hoping for 40% drop but doubt it will happen. Property in Australia needs to drop to at least 50% cheaper to be able to live comfortable

[@timbassett9766]

trbcop Rrrr exactly , housing should not be an investment vehicle , it is a basic human requirement

[@tigers456]

@@timemasterhms Disagree. The most expensive will fall the most.

[@timbassett9766]

M T , and the difference being ?????

[@chisel83]

5065-67 is in Adelaide's inner East and are pricier suburbs so mortgages would be high. Looks like the other postcodes are SA regional/holiday spots where they would have bought at the peak and now losing money hand over fist due to CV19.

[@farqitol]

Anything from corelogic has about as much integrity as an article from REA with "Nerida Conisbee said" in it. It's just crap, you know it's crap, they know it's crap and no one is pretending it isn't crap. We're stuffed

[@strategicviewpoint6672]

Some Second and Third Order Effects: Less Stamp Duty for State Governments- Either budget cuts, pay freezes or increased taxes (or more bailout money from federal government) Less Rates for Local Councils (assuming that rates are really calculated upon property values) Less income tax for Federal Government due to negative gearing write down (Sod the Coalition on this issue) More mobile renter class due to competing landlords- possibly incentives offered and more long term leases Commercial property in the toilet due to the huge reduction of businesses post Covid-19 (and growth of online sales)

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Yep, the dominoes will start to fall...

[@peterk4501]

LIES , DAMN LIES , AND CORE LOGIC

[@darrylknight2675]

Very true

[@misfitsrecovery]

Why?

[@perewihongi6457]

Peter K haha

[@damianbowyer6258]

Terrific Breakdown of the Property Markets in the Capital Cities, Martin.

[@btiger1281]

Unless if you have the Cash you would not buy nothing, the media can talk it up but when you start going around Brisbane lots of units commercial property and houses for sale, lease or buy.all good to talk things up but its smoke an mirrors.

[@tuannguyenable]

The whole australia has only 2 realestate listing website ( domain & realestate .com.au) . No wonder y the true devastating picture has been manipulated by the 2 crooks!

[@geoffvalero3516]

yes they are guilty of spruiking and setting the narrative to suit their agenda.. but dont forget the whole country was seduced by greed and the idea of a quick buck

[@tomsoleymanbik3266]

Well two is plenty for a population of 25 Million. America has Zillow with 330 Million what's your point?

[@tuannguyenable]

Tom Soleymanbik ; they are all Ponzi-Scheme!

[@johndouglass3010]

Martin.. Great work. We In major Australian cities have economic uncertainties obviously. Like many, I would get a call or just choose to have a claimed long weekend in beautiful regional Cairns, Darwin, Perth and the WA, anywhere North of the Tropic of Capricorn, or down south, on Tigerair. We spread our dollars regionally. Now Tigerair is not flying, airfares have doubled with expensive Qaintarse etc, so regional centres are starved of our dollars. So I don't. Any non-socialist solutions ?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Well said

[@Platinumcalculator]

I recall a couple of years ago Applecross (Perth) had high mortgage stress - which is an affluent suburb in Perth

[@davidlazarus67]

Martin with property stress increasing have you noticed any increases in bankruptcies? Or is it too early for that?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Too soon... give it 6 months....

[@gavin1971]

@@Travelingman-1980 Different times or have you been asleep.

[@davidlazarus67]

Travelingman 1980 No. I asked about bankruptcy, which is losses being crystallised. Maybe prices haven’t fallen enough to trigger enough foreclosures. Maybe the Reserve Bank have given instructions to stall foreclosures for now.

[@bondisteve3617]

Thanks Mr. Martin...in these continuing graphical posts that Martin is showing Aussie hopefully can better understand their position in the world all these years after the Sub-Prime incident in America...well done Tory Liberals of Australia.

[@tigers456]

Have to agree. By promoting negative gearing, they let the property market run rampant. Chickens are coming home to roost.

[@turbostyler]

I went to two open houses today. Both houses in Brisbane with prices over 1 million. There were a bucketload of people looking and interested.

[@rougebull77]

looking interested in how much less they will be this time next year probably

[@gregorywootton3870]

Not everyone is a doomsayer.

[@nevmcc3884]

Probably ex Sydney and Melbourne investors looking to surf the next big wave

[@turbostyler]

These are expensive blue chip suburbs with high buy in. Definitely not something you'd buy to rent out. Established families mainly.

[@camwood7600]

Love detailed analysis! Thank you 😊

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

My pleasure!

[@johnhoogy]

We got out of the market in January 2019, so glad we did, now wondering when the right time might be to reinvest. Some predictive modelling would be good based upon history and what we are now able to see moving forward. Great work Martin

[@chisel83]

The next few months will see a glut of properties as people will have to take the bull by the horns before the banks force them to sell. Around mid 2021, after the handouts "should" have ended, i think we will get a clear image of just how deep the bloodbath will be. Just my 2c.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Wait... in my view...

[@chrisgregory4796]

@@chisel83 I see you put that the handouts "should" end. They can't end, there will be no choice but to keep the payments going pretty much indefinitely. They may as well just rename it mortgagekeeper.

[@chisel83]

@@chrisgregory4796 Agree. Who knows how much can kicking petrol is gonna be left in the tank.

[@DatKidJohnny]

Simple. Just look at what your money gets you rent wise. I'm seeing in Melbourne houses that sold for 1.5M rented out for as low as 550/pw now. You will not consider buying in Australia in the near future.

[@MW-il4sn]

Just sold an investment property in Geelong. It was listed as COVID started expecting around $600k. We had 3 sales fall through and now have a contract at $540. So, a 10% drop and I’m calling this a big win.

[@bah667]

How do you think prices for Rural acreages will do?

[@ashthegreat1]

In a worst case scenario where people are flocking out of densely populated metro areas.... I’d say very well.

[@zaly1600]

In my area and properties close to me are having open houses and not many to none are turning up. One property, in particular, has dropped the price from $1,240,000 to $1,130,000 in 3 weeks because no one turned up for the first few open houses. The market to me here in Newcastle is looking very quite.

[@nellytea7114]

2 observations from the Newcastle property market. 1. New listings seem to have slowed to a crawl 2. Sale prices are being withheld Not sure if this is a national trend, but it seems a clear change to the Newcastle market.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks great local insights - we need more of these - as the high level data simply blurs out the differences.

[@darrylknight2675]

Martin do an interview with Jan Somers, that would be good.

[@JJ-wi2uw]

With the dire outlook ahead; the LNP would have the perfect excuse to stop/restrict negative gearing so as to save a heap of money and help balance a blown-out budget.

[@phalyoutube9698]

Carlton, Parkville, Monash . . . University suburbs. Student housing.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Exactly...

[@mizmelbourne]

Is there much devastation if a property investor is forced to sell at a sub-optimal price? They won't lose the roof over their head..it's just an investment which hasn't done well.

[@phalyoutube9698]

Devastating if deposit lost and left with a debt to pay and you have no way to take advantage of the tax-deductible loss moving forward. Especially for someone who just started out, bought at the peak, has HECS debt and can’t see their friends or family for support. I’d say devastating psychologically. The young ones hit the hardest.

[@Miicksta]

Could this reflect the impact of working from home arrangements and people starting to see that you don't have to actually live in inconvenient suburbs just because they are closer to the CBD?

[@ifnottoday]

WHO DA BEST? YOU DA BEST!!!

[@w37320]

The Newcastle market seems to be still pretty strong. Lots of demand, not much supply.

[@jcautec]

It will be interesting to see if we fall like Ireland who experienced 54.5% over 7 years of fall. It wasn't linear falls, some quarters were high others were low, some were even slight positives before falling again. Dead Cat bounces, bear traps, false floors. Going to be very interesting.

[@leonardvillani6409]

Hi Martin, a question about the data for investor stress, how do you adjust or clean the data to visualize or potentially correct for those investors using negative gearing? I would imagine most of the mortgage holders who fall into this group would be the more affluent in society, and I think they technically fall into your definition of stressed by their own design. Not condoning the strategy of using negative gearing, and I do think they will likely feel the pain over the next few months, just interested to if we could gain that insight from your data.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Negative gearing impacts are accounted for - but at low rates, makes little difference....

[@cheynedahl6097]

Would love to see some data for northern NSW prices seem to be booming here. A lot of people have no idea what’s happening seeing a lot of FOMO buying.

[@henryholt1359]

Prices are going up here in coastal East Gippsland.. properties are getting snapped up as soon as they come on market.. I know folks that lost their homes in fires are missing out due to investors.

[@geoffvalero3516]

yes gullible FTB's lulled into buying now...they missed the once in a lifetime boom and jumping in just at the peak of the bust...they and the whole country has become so neurotic of missing out..these buyers decided to jump off the cliff close their eyes cover their ears and hope for the best.

[@chisel83]

There's no way but down Martin.

[@tatsin6766]

good info..... woud rally help if you include the rate of change....

[@MrJarod2003]

Hi Martin, where can you get a full list of postcodes for Austrlia? very useful data.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

The ABS have lists from the past census, as do Australia Post.

[@MrJarod2003]

@@WalkTheWorldDFA I'm trying to append the census data, but its hard to find a list of postcodes with SA codes linked

[@mizmelbourne]

Melb CBD, Melb Uni, Parkville, Carlton, Hawthorn East, Chadstone/Holmesglen, Southbank, Docklands.. these suburbs are all apartment-heavy and popular with wealthy foreign students. They don't appeal as much to the local demographic (local students who live in the family home).

[@brettdavies3887]

Marion Bay outer Adelaide ??? it’s country SA on a complete different peninsula not sure how your data is organised but it’s a weird classification

[@aaronskuse8058]

Wondering how prices are looking for bushfire effected suburbs. A literal fire sale soon?

[@hakubaholiday9006]

Thanks for all your hard work Martin. I'm an Aussie living abroad for the past 20 years so Im a little out of touch on many fronts about what goes on in Australia (that's why I love your channel). I'm curious, does the ABS conduct similar research and analyze data as you do? Do they see what you are seeing? If yes, where do they publish? If no, then shouldn't they be?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

No, ABS does not analyse this. Perhaps they should.

[@geoffvalero3516]

if ABS and Core Logic actually did do this the truth would get out and then the narrative would not suit the vested interests..

[@als6045]

Who thinks generous gov measures like Job Keeper to prevent people from walking away from their debt, as cost of current stimulus is peanuts compared to having to bail out a bank and their foreign creditors. Just seems too generous for Libs and makes you wonder :)

[@SB-hj8ov]

ScoMo and the treasurer had already pumped in $250Bln into the banks before they announced the JK scheme. It was a blink and you miss kind of event. After September we will suddenly find ourselves that the CV pandemic as not threatening. CV was a hit job to cover a recession that was inevitable. A Feb 2019 episode of Nugget News with Martin and Robert Montgomery as guests was an eye opener on what was coming.

[@vw1704]

Al S I predict there will e a robo debt 2.0, The Lib government will want its money back to pay down the deficits and instead of looking at taxing the big companies they will audit the middle class that they gave the money to in the first place.

[@gregorywootton3870]

No walking away from debt in Australia, the bankruptcy will follow you.

[@gregorywootton3870]

@@vw1704 Paid up member of the ALP?

[@vw1704]

Gregory Wootton I make predictions based on previous behaviour..... nothing to do with who I vote for. I am not a blind one eyed supporter of any party. I look at the merits and flaws of all policy ALP or LIB etc. The robo debt fiasco was abhorrent many people were forced to pay back money they were actually entitled to and Treated like criminals in the process. I am a reasonable yet dissolutioned voter who is sick off seeing the incompetence of all the parties.

[@markradovic4493]

Martin, you had Warriewood's district as Central Coast but it is in fact Sydney. Great video by the way.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Ok thanks - I will check...

[@stevenyi9484]

Why US dollars? aren't we in Australia?

[@Frankjevile007]

(Only half way through) but wasnt affluent stress the cause of the US property crash?

[@annakryzilinski4748]

Property won't fall significantly until the banks fail: no more free money. Even with COVID lock downs increasing, millions under or unemployed, business closed for good, unless and until the big 4 banks can't keep lending, property will stay in its bubble.

[@annakryzilinski4748]

@chris0tube Fall yes. But by how much, and when? As I said, not until the banks stop lending, fail, or both. The keyword is "unless" the banks fail. Therefore no money, no cheap loans, for the uninitiated who still have a job, a cash deposit and see themselves as "home owners" or "investors." So the real bursting begins, and only then. The few who have to sell now or soon because of "mortgage stress" won't be enough to flood the market and burst the current bloated bubble. There will have to be tens of millions of properties hitting the market simultaneously to properly crash the over-bloated big fat bubble. The few vendors not afraid to sell now means fewer properties on average hitting the market now, so are being sold because of residual demand: those with ability to borrow, cashed up, and solvent banks willing to lend.

[@annakryzilinski4748]

@chris0tube "Waite & Sea" Great name for a real estate agency ;)

[@Avijit373]

Than god Martin for changing the shirt 👔

[@cashcow131]

lol

[@ChasingMidnight001]

thx

[@massimilianomarrazzo2392]

what information do you need to make that mortgage stress databases?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Survey data for a start

[@BrandOdyssey]

Property prices are already down 10% since beginning of year. Core logic are nonsense propaganda that spruik price rises.

[@comemyfanaticscom]

I know this question is imprecise, but why the concern on the RE market? Ultimately it is consequential of monetary system (debt markets, velocity of money, and real economy, etc.) - this matters! I'd think the clear goal of the government is 70s-style stagflation/lost decade to inflate away debt, while continuing to import capital (hundreds of thousands of people from Hong Kong are already being targeted... that's a LOT in capital flows); real assets maintaining nominal value while real wages diminish. The government will not let the monetary system fail, and in turn the RE market. Seems that RE is simply a canary in the coal mine, but if it falls over it's not the canary you should be worried about. Governments are killing the economy through asinine and idiotic policies of "virus containment", acceptance and mitigation is the only hope for economic recovery. Lockdowns are killing people now and have the potential to kill a generation. You really should interview Martin Armstrong. Marty is on the mark more than most people.

[@bayleybomber]

I can't understand how you can have Harry dent on and only have 9 k views

[@Mazza666]

Martin, what should someone do if they have recently purchased property and that property drops 30% suddenly?

[@extraordinarydave]

If downpayment and transaction fees are below 30%, default it.

[@geoffvalero3516]

live in it...who cares if price goes down..if it was for speculation/investment then get out now

[@Mazza666]

@@extraordinarydave what are the consequences of defaulting?

[@Otters71]

Kin Kora (and Gladstone in general) seems to have massive drug crime issues. That might be influencing the price decline.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Which is cause and which is effect - see Mandurah...

[@byroncornuel4101]

Was just about to mention methandura!

[@ashthegreat1]

Where was the little bit of philosophy on the side?

[@redsed1565]

95% HOUSING CRASH UP AHEAD!

[@garrybuckley6843]

STOP!!!!!! real estate always goes up aaaaahhhhh, sorry I need to go and watch some corelogic data or maybe some government factual site that can back me up or re-watch that documentary on the wizard of OZ where her house just went up and up and up always makes me feel better😕.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Reality eventually dawns...

[@draganakrapovic7588]

Where's ambidex0 😉

[@judetubemoran6275]

Getting bail.

[@nonyabiz1839]

Apparently he's washing Lamborghinis now. 😆 (scroll down)

[@sammyd7857]

Bring on the crash. I can buy a couple of decent places

[@Teslaharmonic]

11th

[@mariaantwan7479]

My dogs name is Tesla 🐶

[@captainkesh]

Phenonemom¿ Lol

[@jameswillis8969]

The post corona boom will sink doomsayer hearts in classic inverse function

[@unopens]

Who will drive the boom? Indians or Europeans?

[@jameswillis8969]

S S Everyone except the working poor Aussies I suppose Investors, migrants, property barons, slumlord millionaires and the block contestants to name a few

[@monsirto]

The Australian market is an artificially stimulated mess. Watching the train wreck as geopolitical reality impacts a nation of idiots is as amusing as it is tragic. We are on the edge of a precipice. Pay off your debts and batten the hatches.

[@jamieb3502]

People still buying in Brisbane like it’s boom time. Prices are not falling at all, FOMO is through the roof

[@geoffvalero3516]

FOMO- Strayan invention..who says strayans cant innovate?