Rare Cards, The Mistake of Modern Collectors

It's always difficult to figure out if new trends are innovations or mistakes. When does tradition and knowledge become hindrance and limitation? I'm offering a way to look at card collecting today which may well point out flaws in the minds of new members of the card community...but it may also be an antiquated perspective. Let me know what you think,

[@daviddavis8758]

Great analogy with the supercars!

[@mail6565]

Collecting since 1975 and through the junk wax era. True, the junk wax era at the time was fun, lots of card choices, lots of shops popping up with access to cards, pre-Internet. 1989 Upper Deck changed collecting, holograms and $1 a pack if you could find them, double other company packs. Then 1993 Finest baseball, $20 a pack I paid, rare to find, great design, refractors. That set changed the hobby going forward. Great Video, insightful.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Wow, I hadn't heard that the first Finest packs were going for that much some places. I never really looked at the Baseball side of the shelves, but it seemed to me that they were in the $2.50 - $3.00 range.

[@JustRyan76]

I 100% agree. There is just too much product because there is not enough competition. Too many "rare" cards leads to those rare cards not being rare at all. How many versions of topps base is there? regular, gold, camo, acetate, blue, red, black, etc etc etc each of those numbered leads to just so many produced parallels and the cards not being rare at all. Topps making 1000 different products leads to the market just being so over saturated.

[@sportscardprofessor]

I thought it was fun around 2010-2012, there seemed to be a good balance of collectability for parallels, but man things spiraled out of control.

[@justins8639]

The 1/1 is an extreme example, but I get it. Another example, I would look at is something like Bowman Chrome Gold Refractors that are numbered to 50. Going back just a few years ago there was truly 50 of these, making them very rare. Now there is the Gold, Gold Shimmer, Gold Lava, Gold Mini Diamond, Gold Mega, Gold Wave, and probably more I am missing. Not to mention the Yellows out of 75 that have the same seried of parallels that almost look the same as a gold. All of a sudden as a collector if I want a nice Gold 1st Bowman of my favorite player and I am not overly picky, it is not so rare.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Those are fun for a while, and then fatigue sets in. The one advantage to those cases of repeated rare versions within a set is if you're focused you can pursue a very personal set with little competition.

[@sp123]

A decent way to look at value is build. On card RPAs } on card autos } Chrome cards } foil cards } paper cards

[@kcsal1876]

Good content. Like the topics

[@RacerRed]

this is one of my favorite videos of yours. I made a video about why modern sports cards don't make sense a few months ago. I didnt articulate it like you did, but i landed on the exact same conclusion. Also, grading a card rings more rarity because it certifies condition. For example, I own a Terry Bradshaw rookie auto PSA 5, there are only 17 of them yet its worth a fraction of a Justin Herbert 1 of 1 which there are probably millions of Herbert rookie cards out there in psa 9 or higher condition.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Man, it's not easy to create an insightful discussion while on a mountain road like that. There weren't too many ruts, but I'm impressed with your analysis while barreling along like you did in that video. I don't know that I agree that the older cards are going to increase that much, but I do agree that the newer cards are likely to plummet. I just think that the whole market is currently overinflated and will sink backwards a ways more. Cool video...although the bear sighting certainly helped.

[@GoneFishin610]

I feel this. Yeah, some cards will be a bit more pricey, but I may not retire off of them. Anything I buy, I buy because I find it interesting and wouldn't mind keeping it/opening it in 15 years. I guess that's a principle for me.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Best philosophy to go by.

[@TheSportsCardDad]

Great video, agree with a lot of your points

[@jaredjoy896]

Great informative video. By the way if you type in 1998 Peyton Manning and set it to football on Becketts online checklist you get 513 different cards not 80 something.

[@sportscardprofessor]

I wasn't factoring in inserts or college cards. That said, I wonder what Beckett would say about Mahomes RCs.

[@davidthecardcollector]

I use to collect M2 diecast cars and I stopped for the same reason, they would have a car that was limited to 4 or 5 thousand and then they would do the car in a different color with same limited number. It's the same with a slight difference.

[@sportscardprofessor]

I looked into collecting Nascar diecasts but found that very issue. It's almost as if greed is common to everyone.

[@drew8703]

Tyranny of choice - I agree with that sentiment and it's one reason I stopped buying cards back in 1994. I had limited money and wanted to buy a cool pack without having to do lengthy investigation and analysis in deciding what to buy. However, I must add in coming back and collecting its actually a huge plus because I'm aiming towards a comprehensive collection of basketball rookies from 92 thru 97ish (staying away from Kobe though), and there is decent but not totally overwhelming number of rookie cards for the main players I'm most interested in (Jason kidd, Robert Horry, Grant Hill, Glenn Robinson, etc.) that makes them somewhat easier to find something when perusing and they are at a reasonable cost. I don't really think there is any truly iconic rookie card for any player in that era, just some that are cooler than others (is there really a Shaq rookie that is unquestionably everybody's favorite?). So while the number of options at the time they were coming out actually pushed me away, in coming back it's actually appealing and can provide me with a goal that could take years but be enjoyable and keep me interested in cards for that time period.

[@bearcards3497]

Excellent video, totally agree. I sometimes think about the sustainability of (many of) these modern cards. Once the excitement for these players dies down, even for some of the best of this generation, how many of these cards in twenty years will be holding their value? Especially when each player has hundreds, even thousands of cards/parallels, numbered, etc. for each year. You're right, we're all in the same sand box, and I'm 100% a collector too (so that's my lens as well). As a kid/teenager, it's true... the LARGE amount of card sets became overwhelming... and that was a big part of me eventually drifting. Too much to keep up with and with my completist mentality, it didn't match up well. And you're 100% spot on - I literally had the thought of my cards from 1989 and thereabouts would have similar values to cards from 20 and 30 years earlier. Nope LOL. Great insight as always, thanks for sharing this!

[@sportscardprofessor]

I figured out how to complete all of those sets...keep at it for 30 years. You'll get there eventually.

[@bearcards3497]

@@sportscardprofessor haha right?! I think '92 is when I started really slipping, and by 1994, even with things settling a little, I was nearing the end (for a long while) but man, it was fun while it lasted!

[@plasticpimps]

Great channel and very informative. Just curious who is the guy in the 3 cards on the top shelf behind you? Almost looks like Milton Berle ..But my eyes aren't so great anymore.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Fortunately your eyes are not gone yet, that is Uncle Milty.

[@sp123]

This is one reason why I collect WNBA; they have one set a season so everyone knows what cards and or parallels to chase

[@sportscardprofessor]

I like having a little bit of variety to diversify the annual experience, but I'm sets first and extra cards second. Throwing a bunch of random cards into packs takes away the opportunity to appreciate the cards for the year. It just becomes stuff.

[@davidthecardcollector]

I been buying the 2020 Sabrina Ionescu prizm. I think that 2020 prizm set is going to be a iconic one among WNBA sets. Just my opinion.

[@bkd9511]

Spot On Point. If You Close Your Eyes... You See The Rookies Of The Players That Have Meaning. I.E. The Namath Rookie And So On.

[@markmaestas1129]

Cards are not an investment...at least not a good investment.

[@jedforceone]

Great video. I think in some ways we're having a double whammy unfold because not only do we have sometimes hundreds of 1 of 1s and other small print runs, but some of the more traditional main stays like Topps series for baseball (as an example) are running print runs of near and possibly over a million. This creates a scenario in my opinion where "rare" cards (i.e. one of ones) aren't rare due to overwhelming number of short print options and flagship traditional cards are overwhelmingly plentiful. I agree heavily with your comments on slabs, there's nothing wrong with slabs... But how valuable can a PSA 10 card be if there's literally over 900,000 of the same card in circulation in a mix of opened packs and tens or hundreds of thousands of packs that haven't even left the box/case yet? The thing that gets me the most, and why I feel like your point about people envisioning an increase in value to today's cards is that people are now dropping $200-$500 on a box (sometimes as few as 1-3 cards per box) and that checklist has less than 1% of it's cards trading at the value of a box! That's crazy! Topps Tier one cards $250 for 3 cards. A huge huge portion of them can be had for $2 on eBay, the near rest of them are under $100 and only a super select minute percentage of them are either over a few hundred dollars, or never sold (like I'm the 1-3% range)... Even if you're banking on some of those 1 percent cards to rapidly increase in value... If it's investment you're after that's some slot machine kinda strategy there... It's weird because even after all of that... Man cards sure are fun though aren't they? 😂

[@sportscardprofessor]

I actually like the overproduction...problem... because I will always maintain that cards are for kids, and even if most packs are sold for adults there have to be some corners of the hobby for kids to enjoy. It's ironic that the Junk Wax mess has resulted in providing 2022 kids with affordable boxes to explore that are the exact same cards that I learned to collect with. Modern kids get to enjoy my childhood.. And , yes, cards are a blast.

[@jedforceone]

@@sportscardprofessor In all fairness, the overpopulation makes my life easier too because I generally collect sets and typically the more average cost ones at that and its never been easier. I’ve always thought card collecting to be in a very good spot in terms of hobbies. For example, I’ve always felt that for the baby boomer generation the Mickey Mantle cards were more than just the player you knew growing up. They were the cards you played with as a kid, the player you watched or listened to play, the player you grew up pretending to be when you played, and possibly most importantly the player you spent your childhood building shared memories over with your dad or grandpa or some other friends and family members. Today’s now middle aged collectors, the end of gen xers, millennials and beyond, we are now fueled by the nostalgia and memories of buying, collecting and trading cards as kids but also for many of us we spent time buying and collecting cards with our dads or family members. Just like for the generation(s) past, collecting cards is a way to remember both our childhoods but also the people we enjoyed spending time with when we were kids, heck it’s a hobby you can do at any age so you can still collect with family members across generations. Furthermore, it’s a simple and relatively inexpensive hobby (sometimes…) you can begin doing with your own kids starting at a pretty young age.

[@sportscardprofessor]

@@jedforceone A lot of comments I've received have been parents mentioning how they are ripping Junk Wax boxes with their kids and bonding with non-current player cards. I love that idea...though can you imagine if our parents ripped a 30 year old box of cards with us in 1990?

[@brethitchcock5885]

I think the lesson we will learn will be centered around topps becoming a publicly traded stock.

[@te2edgesportscards177]

Loved this video @thesportscardprofessor. I'll put together my response on my channel and link it up here. I'd be interested in doing an interview with you, if you're up for it.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Thanks, I'll check look for it. As for the interview, I'm not really set up for it right now, but I'll keep it in mind. Thanks.

[@te2edgesportscards177]

@@sportscardprofessor we’d be using Zoom

[@sportscardprofessor]

@@te2edgesportscards177 I think I'm ready for an interview. Sorry that it's taken so long but I've got to be in the right head space. Are you still interested?

[@te2edgesportscards177]

@@sportscardprofessor I've been pretty busy with work lately and haven't done much with the channel. But, I'll let you know when I get some space and we can connect on the interview piece. Be well.

[@drew8703]

The Toyota Previa is and always will be a supercar.

[@sportscardprofessor]

Eh, that was a '90s vehicle. Those don't matter.

[@drew8703]

@@sportscardprofessor did you mention your favorite supercar? I think a Lamborghini was the coolest, a yellow one to be exact.

[@sportscardprofessor]

@@drew8703 Oh, so Lamborghini can make a super yellow car, but Fleer can't make a super yellow card. I see how you are.

[@drew8703]

@@sportscardprofessor no no no, I'm a fan of the yellow card, or at least I like the yellow aspect of it. I was offended when it made your worst of list.

[@travmaster7003]

Go back to the 90's major major amounts of cards, inserts, & up & coming companies w/ X amount of bi-products, that said rarity was misread, as scarcity was thought of to be rare, no, scarcity is any players card in a very limited quantity, rarity is say for e.g. a panini RC numbered to say 99, the basic autographed swatch manufactured rookie card, plenty of them, all sports, all players, the rare part having the "eye factor" within the collector early in the players career, seeing the way they are built, their attitude, maximum effort givin, does the player showboat then they probably complain/ is the player humble immediately admits everytime they just want to win, make the players the player G.M. puts on team, the player makes the whole team just butter individually throughout the season as team mates give shuttle or loud praise to said player = rarity, it's in the collector & who they deem early in said players career that special 1 & collectors collection reflects that, basically putting their money where their eyes see fit, that's rarity, every1 else are just sheep following the heard of running from the sheep a.k.a. losing faith in the selected chosen player after just 1 or 2 injuries, perfect example, I always had a collector thing about collecting L.A. Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson, when dodgers let him go in the after 2016 season (in which he was big time clutch), I was like WTF? Wut are u doing, he's a L.A. native, championship pedigree @ that, after bouncing around for 4 1/2 season & me taking advantage of stellar deals on every single 1 of Thompsons cards & auto's (even when friends & fellow collectors where like, "sure u wanna spend $5.0p on his RPA, me: umm YEAH !" & now he's back, probably the hottest "new player since deadline" making & taking advantage of his opportunities, & the SHEEP LOVE IT AS I LUV THEM, THATNX FIR READING IF U ARE STILL HERE !