RAY DALIO: STOCK MARKET BUBBLE? CRASH? MISSING THE BIGGER PICTURE!

In this video I cover Ray Dalio's latest article on whether we face a stock market bubble, potential CRASH, and why I believe he's missing the bigger picture.
TAKE CHARGE OF YOUR FINANCIAL JOURNEY:
✅ : www.unrivaledinvesting.com
💡UNRIVALED INVESTING MEMBERSHIP: Includes weekly letters with new stock ideas, stock market commentary, real-money portfolio updates, and a community of like-minded investors at Discord (for Premium subscribers).
📈: WHICH BROKERAGE DO I USE?
► Interactive Brokers Link: www.interactivebrokers.com/mk...
🤖 LEVERAGE AI FOR YOUR STOCK RESEARCH:
www.AITICKERCHAT.com
FREE first month CODE: Free1MonthTrial
UPDATE: Now includes nearly all U.S. stocks above a $300 million market capitalization!
🎁FREE Stock Analysis Tools: • A GIFT for you! New Fr...
🎓AFFORDABLE EDUCATIONAL COURSES!
► Learn how to RESEARCH financial statements: www.unrivaledinvesting.com/of...
► Learn how to VALUE stocks: www.unrivaledinvesting.com/of...
🐦 Twitter: @UnrivaledInvest
DISCLAIMER:
This video is purely for informational and educational purposes. This is NOT investment advice. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Daniel or Unrivaled Investing as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of opinion. Daniel and Unrivaled Investing are not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this website or in these videos. Daniel and Unrivaled Investing’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice.
You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed in this video or on this website. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned by Daniel or Unrivaled Investing may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
INTERACTIVE BROKERS DISCLAIMER:
Interactive Brokers provides execution and clearing services to its customers. UNRIVALED INVESTING is not affiliated with, recommended by or an agent of Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this video. For more information regarding Interactive Brokers, please visit www.interactivebrokers.com.
None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation, offer, or solicitation of an offer by Interactive Brokers to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument or to engage in any specific investment strategy. Investment involves risks. Investors should obtain
their own independent financial advice and understand the risks associated with investment products/ services before making investment decisions. Risk disclosure statements can be found on the Interactive Brokers website.
UNRIVALED INVESTING is a customer of Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers and UNRIVALED INVESTING have entered into a cost-per-click agreement under which Interactive pays Unrivaled Investing a fee for each click-through of the Interactive Brokers URL posted herein.

[@unrivaled]

In this video I discuss Ray Dalio's assessment of whether the U.S. stock market is in a bubble and why I think he's missing a bigger picture. For compelling investment ideas, stock market commentary, educational materials and real-time updates on my personal journey, consider www.unrivaledinvesting.com

[@rowanwood5397]

Howard Marks also made an appearance a couple days ago and said ~ "we are still in the zone of reason".

[@LocalGeezah]

10:20 what do you mean by 'the commodity'?

[@jonathanlee5185]

👍A good-humoured take on financial journalism and a fun contrarian indicator. Also, I agree with Dan👍

[@jdubya3316]

What about the correlation between the labor participation differences between 2008 and now. A Lot of boomers retired vs 2008. I think when the government stops meddling I think we would crash in a natural cycle.

[@spineleafcover5932]

I've heard you make this comment a few times about passing on price increases to the customer; I'm struggling to understand the difference between an insurance company (like Fairfax) passing on price hikes through higher premiums and any other business (restaurants, retailers, etc.) passing on their own higher supply costs by raising sticker prices or menu prices and so on. What makes premium rate increases any different than price hikes in other industries?

[@unrivaled]

Great question: One big difference, the need for the good or service (i.e. insurance is often required or best practice, vs. fine dining which is discretionary).

[@tacocruiser4238]

Recessions typically follow periods of full employment. The U.S. has been at or near full employment for a couple years now. That is a bearish signal for stocks. Conversely, periods of high unemployment are actually bullish for stocks going forward. I know this sounds contrarian but its true.

[@MrSlurrpy]

Err 2-3% reduction of (fed spending as a % of GDP) is not the same as 2-3% reduction of GDP. It doesnt work like that. Fed spending is just a part of GDP (a significant part at that) but still the relationship is not linear.

[@catalin600]

nice. how it works?

[@Tomjones12345]

I missed not taking a position in meta when it dropped to 90. I get how ray et al can see alphabet as undervalued but still seeing meta as undervalued? I know this isn't on the broad subject of the video but I've seen others say this about meta and I'm a little puzzled by that. Great video as always!

[@masterjointu]

Recency bias

[@frsr416]

that was my best decision brought at 96 a share 500k

[@sheanathan3566]

Glad you don’t just follow the herd, Daniel. I totally agree with your points

[@frasersamuel2867]

This market does have pockets of over priced shares. You need to be cautious and remember you need to buy quality companies at reasonable prices. Some companies aren't trading at reasonable prices

[@mattanonysaurousrex]

Look at our nation's household debt. If we the people can't understand the negative impact of our own debt, what chance is there of people voting for fiscally responsible politicians? Throughout our education, we're all trained to believe our political system is great, even perfect. I have much less faith in my fellow voting American. Not because, they are right or left, but because people don't understand, or vote based on the issues that matter most. Unfortunately, I don't have any better solutions. But hey! Maybe robots will keep the ship afloat!

[@paulevans2246]

👍

[@MrAnarchocapitalist]

A reduction in government spending would only hurt GDP if you assume no alternative uses for those dollars. In other words, Fed borrows $100 Billion (sells bonds) and spends it into the economy. In the absence of that fed spending, and the absence of people buying $100 Billion in bonds, what happens to that money? At least some of it would likely be put to more productive use than whatever unproductive nonsense the government would have spent it on.

[@philippgrinstein7060]

Thank you for the informative video!

[@mrneveryoumind]

you're wrong on tesla. You can't just value a company on how it's doing right now. Look at its future with robots, AI, FSD, robotaxi, energy..

[@TheKarldav]

When dalio is out its time to get in! Haha dalio syndrome the guy who is always wrong

[@robbymccabe]

It doesn't matter if AI is revolutionary, the only worthwhile question is if it's profitable. My take, if it's free already, it isn't very profitable.

[@makeurmoneyeasy]

Facebook and instagram and many more applications are also free. And Meta is quite profitable. This is one of first stages of emerging industry, it’s is not that useful at business side of the story, so companies not charging much to get masses on the hook and learn. We always will have some sort of good free AI, but real value will be behind paywall. And it will one of the most profitable industries ever known by the date.

[@erikjohnson1746]

Like Google, Facebook, TikTok or water? Huh?

[@camhouston7387]

My question is: what if we never solve the hallucination issues? What’s its practical applications under those circumstances?

[@ramanmittal6783]

Sorry he won’t be around to see the bubble. It’s going to pop like everything in nature, but not anytime soon

[@ElLotdog]

Half of what Ray Dalio says is obvious, the other half makes no sense…

[@catalin600]

says who?

[@bobjohnson1737]

I respect your analysis on Tesla but i also think there's 2 different ways to evaluate Tesla; you either do the baseline DCF model treating it as a car company and giving almost no value to the other narratives or you value the narrative with it; your version of evaluation would have kept you out of investing in Amazon in the early days as well. Nothing wrong with omission bias but it would be good to call that out.

[@bobjohnson1737]

it's also important to note that tesla's decline from ATH was important for those that got in at the ATH, which i don't recommend but if your horizon and conviction is long enough to say 2030, we're still far far out to truly understand its potential. And for those like me that got in at much lower prices, it's the most exciting stock of all of the mag 7 and the people that never got in early enough and low enough don't really uknow when to get back in thus the negativity and the evaluation discrepancy you see online.

[@trevorglenn3215]

Yes sentiment follows stock price I also been buying since 2019. People forget Microsoft traded sideways for a decade. Kicked themselves for not realizing the monopoly.

[@ayo9057]

Little Ray is far past his prime. Reminds me of Biden.

[@g.c955]

so sad that he just have to live with his 27B net worth

[@modo203]

I think AI is a load of overhyped garbage. Ask anybody who had to deal with those stupid chatting bots if they managed to solve a single problem. Everybody wants to press the pound key to be transferred to a real human. Complete BS.

[@unrivaled]

It's funny, I talked with my Dad about this (he was in your camp) and I explained that the "press the pound key" is the legacy tech, that I 100% agree is awful. I'd encourage you to try out GPT 4 and have an audio conversation with it. That will set you back $20. You can also try out www.aitickerchat.com, first month free, and you can see the logic on its ability to review documents and provide written feedback and analysis.

[@alejandroguerrieri2924]

Ray dalio 🤡🤡🤡🤡

[@soup100]

Dalio is a con!

[@mds2672]

Dalio had a nice run but he needs to retire. He lost a ton of money in China that he will never get back, and hasn't beaten the market for many many years.