🔴 Navigating Market Cycles (w/ Howard Marks) | Real Vision Classics

Legendary investor Howard Marks explains how he invests successfully, fully aware that nothing is a sure bet. In this conversation with Grant Williams, Howard, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, breaks down how he has navigated market cycles, and outlines the dangers that lie ahead in a world dominated by moral hazard and political polarization. Filmed on January 31, 2019 in Boca Raton, Florida.
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Navigating Market Cycles (w/ Howard Marks) | Real Vision Classics
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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that - now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Real Vision Classics are the best videos from our premium subscription service released free, often a few months after the original air date. The original air date is in the top left corner as the video starts. Film date is located in the description.

[@Michael-st9ky]

Real Vision Finance when I first came across your channel I thought it was gonna be another ‘conspiracy’ gold peddling channel. After a few videos I’m glad, I’m wrong. Really solid content, thanks for the free Gold Nuggets!! New Sub!

[@Michael-st9ky]

After further research y’all are vastly underrated... I’m surprised you guys aren’t killing the KZbin game with 500k subs yet

[@IrineuEvangelista]

Lucky us lol

[@dennismorris7573]

Howard Marks - a true American visionary (and not a bad investor, either!).

[@matteodebastiani2594]

Howard Marks is one of the goat in this game. Man what a great inspiration, thanks Real Vision Finance for sharing, that's a no-price lesson !

[@zorro149]

One doorknob in the background is up and the other one is down. It's like someone started to enter the room, heard the talking and realized they were recording, and just stood there for 49 minutes and held the doorknob down so it wouldn't move.

[@Samklemens]

Thank you so much for this. It's like a college education, only better and free.

[@InfluenceBeats]

yessir!

[@justintucker9172]

KZbin videos of Bill Miller, Stanley drunkenmiller, Howard, buffet/munger, prem watsa, and so on is truly all you need.

[@Rheault101]

This guy talks with such intelligence and clarity its impressive.

[@231wildy]

Always refreshing to hear Marks speak his mind.

[@Potatoroomr]

This is more relevant today than ever very ominous

[@jeeed6390]

Like almost all Real Vision videos, this is another crucial education. Keep them coming.

[@Garen1]

this is pure gold, watching it 3 years later as they talk about jpow

[@DoctorMotorcycle]

Howard marks! Yeah yeah! Mastering the market cycle is/was an awesome read!!

[@rempelfamily7567]

Amazing insight, especially now. I truly enjoy listening to those who have knowledge combined with wisdom, and you have both. Thank you for taking the time to share with us.

[@Thefunksoulbro]

A great and wise man, I'm new to imvesting in shares. I was drawn to this man's philosophy.

[@d0cf1sh]

So much in here. Your interviews are essential viewing RV.

[@roccoforte6889]

He really is worth it to listen to... had a lot of clearing out done through listening this video

[@m3tamonk3y4]

Serious question - How does the current long-term cycle allow for; 1. The removal of Glass Steagall (1999), 2. Iraq (2003-11, +$2T), 3. Greenspan keeping rates low for too long (2000s), 4. The GFC, and 5. QE 1, 2 & 3? Each of these applied significant pressures on the US and global financial systems. If we are to believe "we're coming to the end of the long-term cycle", should we also assume we would not be at the end of the cycle (or approaching a deleveraging event) if some of these events had not occurred? If so, what does this say about the long-term cycle theory?

[@visheshbharara1458]

I thoroughly enjoyed the discussion 😊

[@mattpickering4223]

Wow watching this now…..the foresight is amazing…..we’re definitely stuck in some kind of loop or cycle. Thanks for this great video.

[@OGSmoke49]

Once you read his book, “Mastering the Market Cycles”! You’ll definitely understand the market/Life/Human Psychology way better…

[@bb3683]

Oh god i was waiting for these two to have a conversation for months... And it happened... Yeay

[@toms641]

Great interview. As other, I have to disagree with "derivatives are the problem." But I do think a huge problem is companies borrowing money and buying back stock. Especially when the low interest rates are subsidized by U.S. savers. These companies drive up the price of their own stock, officers benefit. Then the company is ripe for a bankruptcy, because of the heavy leverage. And the U.S. savers will be called on to subsidize the bailouts.

[@InfluenceBeats]

This guy is bang on!

[@c130comm]

Outstanding talk

[@i486DX66]

RE: 12:00 - disagree on the usage of derivatives as "side-bets". Derivatives can be used to establish a position in the underlying whereas without derivatives, no position may otherwise be taken. There is very little difference between long stock and being short a deep ITM put or long a deep ITM call.

[@wissamali2823]

Just simply brilliant and beautiful to listen to Howards Marks.

[@marcosyoutubechannel]

When Grant talks of what will bring people together, well the USA had it with 9/11 and the wealthy and powerful picked at the ruins to feather their own nests and laid more seeds of division

[@spindillio]

Matthew Worner Are you referring to bad monetary policy? If you are, then I agree with you.

[@OffGridInvestor]

You realise that THE WORLD TRADE CENTER was bought down and 3500 of these "bankers" and "powerful" were killed right?

[@Nikolleshi]

THIS GUY IS VERY SMART!!

[@vvolfflovv]

how the f did this slip through my feed. too many great videos to keep up with

[@thomaskauser8978]

And you had Greenspan hiding long term capital management problem with the Y2K print?

[@FadhlAhmed]

Interviews where participants are drinking white wine and not water = indicator for quality.

[@dommazahra4302]

Does anyone know how to get a hold of his research?

[@20-prasadmalgaonkar39]

just one word quality

[@serenax.3622]

Is there an update to this? Really want to hear his thoughts after the covid riots

[@osoquik4447]

Read his memos. They can be found on Oaktree's website.

[@othelo989]

Howard Marks has a very alpha position at the start Legs kicked out taking up the interviewers foot space. DO IT.

[@Knowledge.to_Come]

I kept staring at the crooked door handle in the back, and listening to howard i came to accept the imperfection in a trance.

[@helldeirch]

markets go up and down but profitable companies will always recover and increase in value, Marks understands this, the host is just a bubble guy

[@donaldf.switlick3690]

Money-in-Politics is The Cause; everything else is a Symptom.

[@Eternal_Truth8]

32:00

[@chaseneuhausen8062]

Great commentary @ 33:18 about the lack of bipartisanship and how lack of political compromise serves to benefit no one

[@fooling6373]

I think what Warren was talking about, and if not she should have been, is that your wealth is from capital gains and taxed at a different level than the rest of us, hourly wage earners. You can afford tax accountants that shield your income. And most important is that you have a wonderful health plan that allows you to pass on your wealth after death. The rest of us end up giving all our money to hospitals and doctors in the last years of our life. I like you, I like capitalism, I like free markets, however, if you think that we are treated the same, in regards to taxes and the availability of hanging on to our wealth you are living in a bubble. There is no comparison, it is set by the wealthy, for the wealthy. That's a fact.

[@jc.1191]

I agree. The wealthy benefitted from the resources of the state. Roads, education, etc. They have not paid for it, we have massive deficits. This needs to be addressed.

[@squidlord6123]

Boomers will enjoy this. 70 years of complacency. Things are changing. Populism is here because you guys have run the car of the bridge.

[@deesus1085]

I liked the part where he became full of life and sat straight regarding having to pay more taxes.😂

[@OffGridInvestor]

It was more about having your OWN MONEY earned over YEARS taken away from you. Because in that case there'd be NO stock market or pensions or ANYTHING.

[@thomaskauser8978]

Short rates can't go to zero and 19 trillion dollars lost is still just a drop in the bucket of a 225 trillion dollar global economy?

[@jessenoell2154]

Howard, where do you stand on the carbon tax? Emissions from homes in the most affluent neighborhoods are commonly 15 times higher than the average home. A U-M study of Boston and L.A. found high-emissions neighborhoods were primarily high-income or extremely high-income locations. In contrast, more than half of the lowest-emissions neighborhoods in both cities were home to residents living below the poverty threshold. Would it be confiscatory or punitive to place a carbon tax on the wealthy to cover the costs of drawing down the carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it as char into the ground? Should the wealthy pay disproportionately for the drawdown of the 1.2 gigatons of carbon emissions by the military since 2001 or should the oil companies foot the bill?

[@leswhynin913]

Not unfair to either price externalities or impose more burden on those who are contributing more to the problem

[@shanearnold2372]

There is also another thing that can be done about social security he didnt list.... and that is congress make up the underfunding, because the money that was deducted from peoples checks, and the employers contributions did not go to the fund, some of it was diverted to pay for other programs..... in any other setting that would be considered fraud, and should be here as well, but he didnt list the solution of making up the underfunding of the self supported system social security...... or even prosecuting the people who "stole" money from the fund to pay for other projects

[@dsande9]

this is ridiculous on all kinds of levels. lets have the rich have a circular conversation with themselves. fyi, there is no difference between republican and democrat on any policy that matters to the oligarchs.

[@Viper4ever05]

yea..basically. Its funny when people think there's an actual difference.

[@jc.1191]

Yup! That's why we keep getting gun and abortion rights being thrown around. Just distractions. It's really just oligarch vs oligarch.

[@jonl9192]

I think our move to the left is happening in such an extreme and quick manner that it should be short-lived and spring back to capitalism fairly quickly.

[@shanearnold2372]

What would changing the system do he asks...... it would ensure those people with strong backs do not die..... end up on the street..... in prison.... or mental health facilities. He imagines the people who complain about the current system as people largely benifiting from the innovations that incentives in capatalism created, yet that middle manager he imagines is not the only one raising alarm bells.... and that middle manager is also at risk from automation. Yes a lot of what he says in this talk are on point, but in the complaints against the current syetem he seems to see be rooting for status quo

[@Bubblegan]

I strongly disagree with his opinion on derivatives. They are essential to the entire system.

[@falakoala4579]

Liberty how so? just for insurance to share risk? im trying to fully understand them but its complicated

[@OffGridInvestor]

While the BIGGEST bailout was AIG and that WAS FROM the derivatives they made. The insurance and derivatives on the subprime mortgage backed securities was 20 TIMES THE AMOUNT of the ACTUAL subprime mortgages. This shows HOW MUCH was just SPECULATORS. You shouldn't be allowed to have ANY derivatives on anything UNLESS you SPECIFICALLY have a dog in the fight or foot in the deal. PERIOD.

[@Tenebrousable]

Cycles are the result of incentives. When they reduce interest rates, capital investment will be made, that don't correspond to real world savings. Thus, the investment wasn't really affordable or profitable. It was just a mirage. Over time, reality asserts itself, and the investment will be bankrupt. Investments go bankrupt naturally too. Because of miscalculation or shanging market. The best way to make those miscalculations systemic, is to lower interest rates with the central bank. Austrian school of economics. It's not that Fing complicated. Capitalism isn't imperfect. Government fiscal and monetary policies are systemically so.

[@FerroNeoBoron]

35:04 Thinking that gun control can't go through because of some abstract idea of somebody being divided despite saying that 80% of Americans want it is a rather strange diagnosis.

[@OffGridInvestor]

There's this thing called the constitution....

[@Evan-gs7gu]

This guy thinks we just need to support candidates that cross the isle. He doesn’t realize that it’s a systemic issue with plurality voting. If he actually wanted to solve the problem of crossing the isle, he would need to recognize that the voting system needs updated to ranked choice or single transferrable vote, and gerrymandering laws updated to be done with open source algorithms.

[@thomaskauser8978]

Treasury bills is your best chance for a return going forward?

[@jonl9192]

The fed lowering interest rates in a bull market is not capitalism/free market

[@AISB12]

this host is clueless about politics. smh

[@keevancrawford6708]

I hate that they call it market and business cycles.

[@georgedoolittle9015]

again "do not find current affairs complicated." everyone knows Italy is going to steal the gold. they always do.

[@AISB12]

the guy tells him that finance has been/is a game of side bets and the host in the end likes the betting and wants a discussion on the wealth grab... If rich folk found ways to accept wealth inequality and get creative about investment into infrastructure then maybe you wouldnt be scared of the wealth grab. and then these guys think republicans wanna work on anything accept tax cuts.

[@AISB12]

@Stansel Almon Welcome to the future... and yes. except*

[@Richard-cr4ff]

seriously US needs to be separated into two - one socialist US and one conservative US. see what will happen after 20 years.

[@Michael-st9ky]

Richard lol we already do! It’s called New York and California

[@Michael-st9ky]

More States rights my mate, but socialist don’t want small Govn. 🤦🏽‍♂️

[@jc.1191]

We already have that. Socialism for the rich, and capitalism for the rest. Just look at tax proceeds, and the federal budget. It adds up to crony capitalism.

[@danguee1]

It's a bit disingenuous to talk about how different the economy and the markets are: the economy swinging from 2% to 4% GDP growth is, in fact, a 100% swing..... (sure I get that it's not that simple and that economic output is still fairly steady - but it will affect a lot of jobs and the profitability of a lot of marginally profitable companies and so that 2/100% swing is as big a deal to many as a 20-30% change in the S&P.

[@OffGridInvestor]

He's trying to say that how the economy and jobs are going versus how the markets are going are DISCONNECTED. And strangely enough THEY OFTEN ARE.

[@johnjones4502]

800 point moves are like the 87 collapse hoax.Nothing

[@squarecracker]

I Believe In An Omnipotent Omniscient Omnipresent God Who Is In Control Of Everything All The Time There Is No Such Thing As Coincidence In My Frame Of Reference

[@chessdad182]

I liked Mastering The Market Cycle. But some of his political beliefs I’m not keen on.

[@cramsa]

I wish I would like the guests, but he sounds like a mainstream hack to me...

[@TC-cv1dg]

30:30...the nerve to claim another has used "skulduggery". As if surmising current event in correlation to historical data (History is what says Nepoleon) is not "skulduggary"...convincing those with excess to avoid risk by trusting historians to place wagers (not wages) on predictive hypothesis. And in closing the sale always give disclaimer. Lol...yet call out others ("those on left" I think he calls them)for presenting the self evident fact that greed has become over bearing in current economy.

[@mschlosky1]

Do poor people have special interest groups ? No they don’t but exon mobile and big pharma do .. how much of our tax dollars have gone to supporting these mega corporations that the average tax payer hasn’t seen a cent of ? You act like the labor and government $ that helped build these companies had no part of these corporations accumulated Wealth .

[@bobsmith2886]

Marks is overrated, I read all his letters since the 1990s and he completely missed the subprime meltdown. He saw the dotcom bubble (like almost everybody did). He noted froth in the housing market but he missed the fact that it would become a second Great Depression and banking meltdown.

[@mschlosky1]

You are out of your mind dude! never have corporate tax rate ever been so low in this country pay your fair share and quit crying

[@kaizen4all]

Please stop spamming with these older videos

[@mikeypp1977]

really man? you're telling me you didn't learn anything? Even if released later, it's free and they are top notch conversations. None of what they are are covering changes so fast that 6 months invalidates what is being discussed.

[@alexj5444]

This is from their paid content which otherwise wouldn't be on KZbin at all.

[@suzannekeddie1162]

Was not what he said relevant for todays times, and its free, no 9ne is forced to watch them

[@falakoala4579]

could just scroll past it. pretty amazing this is free to view actually. be thankfull

[@zoocame]

too much talking about FED and politics

[@mschlosky1]

Y’all are extremely out of touch with the average American person ..why do you think fascism is rising? Income inequality