RESIGN? Trudeau and Biden's overlapping leadership crises

The two progressive leaders of North America are in big trouble right now! Should they step aside?
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[@CultureCrossed64]

"Democrats are really bad at picking VPs" seems to be an important take from this video

[@BenTomlinson1994]

Al Gore was considered a "good VP" but it was a Democratic rebrand after the Reagan era where the Democrats in the 1990s were to the right of most Republicans today on economic and foreign policy issues. Social Issues they were only slightly left of modern Republicans today.

[@David-bh1rn]

@@BenTomlinson1994 I disagree with democrats back then being to the right of conservatives today they're at most the same. Also on social issues democrats back then still disagreed on gay marriage and a lot of tough on crime laws were implemented by the Clinton administration.

[@niningsetia4213]

Jajajaja God is arsen😂 Hahag

[@Pan_Z]

​@BenTomlinson1994 you kinda just admitted today's GOP aren't particularly Conservative.

[@Pan_Z]

​@David-bh1rn it's important to note Bill Clinton was pretty moderate within his party. He supported bills only a minority of Democrats did after the Republicans won the House & Senate.

[@HerodotusVon]

You focused a lot on the similarities between the liberals and the democrats, but I think there are a few very important contrasts too. The American economy under Biden has performed a lot better than the Canadian economy, local Democratic politicians are consistently over performing in special elections, and in polling Democratic representatives/senators consistently outperform Biden. I think it is fair to conclude the Democrat’s issues are much more specific to Biden himself, whereas the liberals, as evidenced by their by-election loss and overall track record are much more unpopular as a party in Canada. I think replacing Biden will prove to be significantly more helpful to Democrats than replacing Trudeau would be to Liberals

[@JJMcCullough]

That’s an insightful analysis

[@angryzak4389]

I don't think the American economy has "outperformed" under Biden. Sure, if your metric is based off of government statistics then sure. But the fact of the matter is the overwhelming majority of people in America are not satisfied with the economy and view it as being poor and people consistently saying their lives were better off 4 years ago.

[@RandomDudeOne]

It would be interesting if Trump was elected President and the Democrats took control of the Senate and House. At least Trump would be neutered somewhat.

[@MinecraftLively]

Point of conflation: the stock market and GDP is doing well, the economy for lower and middle class is not.

[@christiananderson9015]

​@@MinecraftLively real wages increases have been substantial and unemployment is at 4%

[@rodionmalovytsia1020]

I really love the way old footage is framed within a tv of that era, gives us a greater sense of history and immersion. If this idea came from one of your editors, JJ, please tell them they did a great job :D

[@JJMcCullough]

It was me baby!!

[@zachryder3150]

I can't believe I didn't notice it.

[@felixfourcolor]

it's so natural that I didn't even notice it

[@lucasharvey8990]

I thought JJ edited it all himself.

[@zxyatiywariii8]

​@@JJMcCulloughIt's awesome!

[@donmc1950]

Former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was of the opinion that the people get tired of a leader after 10 years. Trudeau is now approaching the 10 year mark.

[@brianbarker2551]

Yeah, ten years is about it for any person in that position. Harper lasted about that long too.

[@David-bh1rn]

That doesn't really explain how things shifted that much in the past 2 years

[@colamity_5000]

Yeah, hes also presiding over a time of high gas prices, high cost of living, and has had to contend with Trump and COVID. Don't get me wrong, he hasn't handled all of that perfectly and he also lost a lot of good will with his snap election; but the point is that eventually a leader just kind of runs their course and people want a change. Extending an already tenuous mandate by two years with a snap election is unsurprisingly leading to a very unpopular leader.

[@colamity_5000]

@@David-bh1rn We know why that happened: inflation, gas prices and general cost of living. Obviously a lot of that is mostly beyond Trudeau's control or his complete control at least, but the voters just don't have any good will because its been 10 years.

[@orthopedix6202]

@@colamity_5000 Out of Trudeaus control? wow that a bad take.

[@Lukie4reals]

One thing I think is worth mentioning about Joe Biden is the fact that by the time he leaves office if he’s elected again he’ll be 86. I imagine many Americans don’t believe he’ll even last that long, so in their minds they’re just as much voting for Kamala Harris for president as they are for Joe Biden.

[@toggle2565]

They say they are fighting for democracy when they know that a Biden won't make it to 2028.

[@jimmym3352]

Even before the debate I strongly believed Biden would just resign shortly after inaguration and we'd get our first female President. This essentially is a vote for VP's since I also believe Trump would die in office. I can't believe he's still alive as heavy as he is.

[@Gameprojordan]

​@jimmym3352 Trump is literally slightly chubby for his height. Dude is like 6'4. Being around 250 pounds isn't that bad for his height. It's overweight yes but not a morbidly obese sloth that's 2 cheeseburgers away from having a stroke and needing to breathe through an oxygen mask for the rest of his life

[@lennyward7662]

@@Gameprojordan I literally just checked this and his approximate BMI is around 37, which is only a few points away from being morbidly obese. That alone doesn't mean he would die in office, but couple that with his advanced age, barely younger than Biden, I do suspect that both men would probably pass during the next 4 years.

[@retronymph]

But if that's the case they should put Kamala on the stage to actually contest Trump's obvious lies rather than put up a walking corpse. Americans can know they're effectively voting for Kamala but then if Joe Biden is this bad at communicating why isn't she the candidate outright?

[@jj947]

I’m pretty sure the last president who was eligible for reelection but didn’t choose to run again was Lyndon Johnson in 1968. I think he contested a few primaries, saw he was unpopular, and dropped out

[@JJMcCullough]

Correct, but not this late in the game.

[@user-ev8zm7dk4i]

@@JJMcCullough The game has been set. If biden dropped out voters would see the democratic party as weak and divided.

[@bas3q]

@@JJMcCullough Right, LBJ's "I will not seek and I will not accept" comment came on March 31, 1968 with the election on November 5th...giving the Democrats twice as much time to replace him as they have with Biden now.

[@roryburch861]

True but in 1968, RFK was the presumptive nominee for the Democrats until he was shot in June, leaving Humphrey to take over with roughly the same amount of time a new Democratic candidate would have now. Obviously it didn't work out for the Dems last time, but I think that it's not inconceivable someone else could do enough campaigning the meantime to defeat Trump

[@jayveerisdabest7500]

Dubya was eligible to run again due to the Iraq war

[@MPascolin]

Trudeau lack’s self awareness and I find him extremely embarrassing on the world stage

[@nathanandsugar5252]

*Invites a Nazi ally for veneration in Parliament "fought against Russia in WW2"= Nazi collaboration ation (See Stefan Bandera)

[@jimmym3352]

Don't worry, here in the U.S. no news is ever mentioned of him. So he's not actually embarrassing you. Usually CNN just gushes at him as the best thing ever, though they haven't done that in a while.

[@captlazer5509]

​@nathanandsugar5252 who does he think is, putin? With nazies in the Wagner Group. Jeez.

[@Gameprojordan]

​@jimmym3352 lol CNN isn't watched by the vast majority of Americans. Same with fox. So basically what you said is the die hard "vote blue no matter who" democrats support Trudeau, which is obvious

[@edgar-edgarton]

Trudeau is an idiot!

[@amcalabrese1]

One issue on replacing Biden comes down to campaign finance. Biden’s campaign has raised a lot of money. Apparently (I say apparently as I am not a campaign finance expert only reading what I do in the papers) if Biden is replaced by anyone other than Harris, that money has to be returned. It cannot be transferred to another campaign.

[@NaviRyan]

Yep also to be quite frank the democrats aren’t as united every other possible replacement is despised another faction of the party.

[@thatrealawkwardguy]

But wait democrats said democracy was on the line this election your telling me money is more important to them than democracy??

[@CiabanItReal]

So what, they'll just donate it to Jane Doe.

[@osirisapex7483]

Any serious Biden replacement will have the financial backing to run a national campaign, so this is a trivial issue

[@osirisapex7483]

Any serious Biden replacement will have the financial backing to run a national campaign, so this is a trivial issue

[@user-saraswatidevi]

Im surprised so many people have just now started to worry about the age of biden, hes been like this for years

[@devinmes1868]

Exactly, it's silly. People were making the same arguments 4 years ago.

[@chrisschuenke8316]

Thats because mainstream media tried its best to gaslight the public. Tough to continue the deception in front of 50 million people in real time.

[@-ThatGuy-]

I'm amazed that people aren't bugged by either Biden's or Trump's age. Why the hell are we okay with ancient people with failing minds making decisions on the behalf of Americans who are gonna have to live with those choices for far longer than either of these fossils will be alive for.

[@dman4435]

@@user-saraswatidevi he could at least finish a sentence 4 years ago. Now Biden is just too old. The media can’t hide it.

[@talphazero1036]

What's crazier to me is that the age argument gets throw around so much without Trump's age being a credible 'defense' (only 3 years younger). Biden is just on a different dimension of senile-ity. If the thinking was that a boring, simple easy-going Candidate would've won against Trump in 2020, why didn't they just find themselves a sexy, young 42-year old Justin Trudeau clone to run instead of using grandpa Biden? The American overlords that actually run the system must have at least a hundred of those in reserve, and plenty of them could've been Jewish or Black or some other exotic ethnicity that isn't White for extra brownie points

[@thematthew761]

As an American, I think we take it for granted that our leader can't simply be knifed by their party and if you elect them, you're with them for four years

[@LiberateAlberta1907]

I may not like your choices in leadership when it comes to Trump and Biden but I respect Americans and I'm completely honoured to have you as my neighbours. All 400 million of you! 🇨🇦🇺🇲🙂 Thanks for having our backs in regards to Trudeau! You are great neighbours! 😊

[@thematthew761]

@@LiberateAlberta1907Thanks!

[@JJMcCullough]

That’s a cultural tradition more than an institutional difference.

[@rushyscoper1651]

politics in US is very primitive i would say and lack such complexity. but with more drift between dems and progressive and center right and right wing i can see such complexity rising, TV news is no longer what set the tune, social media naturally promote more complex and messy politics

[@thematthew761]

@@JJMcCullough Yes but presidents are never expected to resign and you can't call a no-confidence vote on him, and there is no way to call an early election either.

[@DiscomasterZero]

What's interesting about these 4 people is that when you put politics aside, you can change the boxes around entirely and still make some interesting contrasts. For example, Poilievre and Biden both have decades of political experience; Trump and Trudeau were both boosted to their position by name recognition alone with no political experience.

[@Alex-js5lg]

@@DiscomasterZero Trudeau was an MP for 7 years before becoming PM. I wouldn't call that "no political experience."

[@yansen1568]

​@@Alex-js5lgTrump tried to run in 2000, and yeah that's political experience although a bit less than the others

[@DiscomasterZero]

@@Alex-js5lg I stand corrected. However, If you measure prior political experience prior to attaining the highest level of leadership, 7 years is still closer to Trump's zero than he is to what will be Poilievre's 22 years when he becomes PM in 2025.

[@boxycthulhu3519]

@@yansen1568running for office doesn’t count as political experience if you don’t actually serve in the office lol

[@meghanlynn7609]

​@Alex-js5lg true, however he was placed in the role of party leader with relatively no political experience. His name recognition and winning a boxing match largely contributed to him becoming party leader then PM

[@rockingbeat]

Trudeau had a Guy Fawkes beard?

[@Alex-js5lg]

That was Trustin Judeau.

[@Jabberwockybird]

Trusin Judeau planted those bombs in parliament

[@thomdrolet2624]

He is bombing in parliament.

[@lesasmith4692]

😂

[@Alex-js5lg]

I don't even expect either of them to resign their positions, but damn do they both need to announce that they're not seeking re-election.

[@weston06.]

I don’t know if they’ll be successful, but I do believe that there will absolutely be (and there already is) a large concerted effort to push Biden out. There are so many roadblocks along the way though that I can’t see them being successful. And given how well DJT’s polling against Biden paired with the fact that they consider him as a grave threat to their party, I’m somewhat concerned about what corrupt shenanigans they may pull to keep Trump out of office (I’m not saying voter fraud or anything, but the NY trials against DJT are definitely politically motivated, and they seem to be pushing this “threat to democracy” narrative a whole lot). Whatever the case is, I’m certain that the 2024 elections will make the political divide in the US exponentially worse than it already is.

[@mikemorr100]

One of the problems the Democrats would have, in finding a replacement for Biden, is just finding someone willing to step into that role. You need to find someone who wants to be president and is also willing to take a huge risk of losing a major election and ruining their name for the next election.

[@ghandibanks]

Would be career suicide unless they choose a candidate who is 60-70 years old.

[@EldaMengisto]

Or somebody who can provide a decent vision which would attract the borderliners.

[@Throgman33]

I love how when discussing north american politics no-one ever knows or cares what mexico is up to

[@alquinn8576]

they elected a communist and their currency slumped as a result

[@justincaver324]

Well, it’s because Mexican politics is basically always liberal they’ve been having a super majority for like a decade

[@cute_axolotl]

Probably because Mexico speaks a different language than US/Canada and is also much more culturally distinct.

[@player276]

That's probably because Americans/Canadians aren't educated on the interworking's of Mexican Drug Cartels.

[@saulgoodmanKAZAKH]

I wouldn't say the countries are culturally, historically or politically similar at all. They just happen to be on the same continent. JJ talked about the North American-American distinction in his videos already

[@jujube3736]

Something similar happened in NZ with Jacinda Ardern. She realized she didn't have the pull she used to and stepped down so she wouldn't have to face loss in elections

[@zxyatiywariii8]

I envy you, New Zealand, I wish Biden would step down.

[@PrawnAddiction]

But then her successor lost in the worst defeat for a sitting government since the introduction of MMP, nearly halving his party's seat count from 65 to 34.

[@jujube3736]

@@PrawnAddiction Yeah that was my point. She knew she would lose so she stepped down so it wouldn't necessarily taint her reputation

[@PrawnAddiction]

​@@jujube3736 That was exactly my conclusion too.

[@Dantinus]

Picking Harris as VP was actually a pretty smart move on Biden. Harris was ineffective and unpopular Presidential candidate that didn't even make it to the first primary. Other than the appeal to minority and women vote you mentioned, she also served as a fail-safe so Biden won't get "25th Amendmented" because that means if Biden was removed, Harris become President and that will kill all chances of the Democrat returning to the White House in 2024.

[@adamperdue3178]

Sort of the same logic as Trump running with Pence in 2016. Trump is extremely divisive on a lot of issues, but he's not actually extremely conservative, and in fact is quite liberal for a Republican (for example, he was the first President to endorse same-sex marriage from the start of his presidency; and only the second President to do so at all as Obama endorsed same-sex marriage a few years into his term, seemingly waiting until public opinion had turned in favor of it). Yet Pence is/was an extremely conservative man, who at one point was one of the major figures behind the push for conversion therapy. The theory was, beyond the fact that Pence would pull in some of the more radical conservative support, was that if a leftist assassinated Trump, then they'd be forced to deal with Pence for the remainder of the term, who by all accounts ought to be a worse alternative to leftists than Trump.

[@peterroberts4415]

​@@adamperdue3178100%

[@christiananderson9015]

I'd argue a sub 60 y/o candidate already has a edge over 77 y/o trump. Its not Biden's record its his age. Kamala would bring out black voters far better than Biden

[@jready1455]

@@adamperdue3178 A lot of people forget Trump was a democrat most of his life. He also mentioned in the debate that he wouldn't ban abortion. Democrat's still use the argument that he is a dictator and far right even though Biden used more executive orders.

[@awesomeguy9513]

Harris was appointed as the Border Czar a job she has failed at in pretty much every aspect, seeing as how the economy and immigration are the biggest concern/issues among the US voting base she pretty much has no chance as the economy under Biden which she was VP to is is a bad state and said before she failed the border These are just the things as VP take into account her history in California and yea having Harris on the ballot is pretty much asking for a lose

[@pinerider19]

As an American, I am glad to see that we are both suffering together.

[@jiveturkey9078]

I know what happened to us.

[@ezraclark7904]

Wouldn't it be nice if campaign season wasn't a year long😂

[@jj947]

@@ezraclark7904 only a year? lol when one campaign ends the next begins

[@nnkk7742]

They need that time to solicit all of those bribes, err.....completely legal tips.

[@JJMcCullough]

There's no real way to keep a campaign season short, unless you force parties to only nominate their candidates super close to voting day somehow.

[@doctorbobcat7123]

What if the world followed the recent British example and have it be about 2 months lmao

[@JJMcCullough]

@@doctorbobcat7123 The British are in non-stop campaign mode. Prime Minister Question Time or whatever is institutionalized televised campaigning every single day.

[@blockingsea]

Chrystia Freeland talks like she's a 12-year-old girl trying to act like a teenager when she speaks and I'd rather cut my ears off than have to listen to her say "Mr Speeeeaker" until she loses the next election. She also is our finance minister making her the main person to blame for our economy's poor performance right now. Also, also, when she asked a question she looks so uncomfortable and almost scared like she witnessing a murder or something horrible. She acts like a trained dog to nod in agreement every time Justin Trueadu speaks in public. She did it at Brian Mulroney's funeral when Justin Trudeau spoke. Just a weird and almost disturbing way to act in general let alone at a funeral.

[@Leafsdude]

It's disappointing to me that the first thing people talk about w/r/t politics is irrelevant personal taste. Who care's how she talks, or how she sounds? Does she do the job? That's all that matters. Note that Trudeau's "good looks" and "good voice" winning him the election is the same issue, but in reverse. We need to elect based on competency, not whether they're likeable/sound good.

[@oriontigley5089]

Wholeheartedly agree, ​@@Leafsdude

[@blockingsea]

@@Leafsdude Fare enough. I do agree the job is what matters but yet the main issue with Biden is that he's unfit to rule because of his age and that's a key issue that Americans are worried about and If I don't like the way she acts on top of the way she does her job it's going to snowball. If I'm acting childish than i'm sorry. Freeland isn't a good finance minister The hyperpending and hyperinflation she caused are some of the biggest issues that are effect Canadians right now.

[@nathanandsugar5252]

Freeland is pro censorship. Sorry not sorry.

[@TheChuckfuc]

​@@Leafsdude it's her 12 year old attitude that's reflected in her voice. Groceries are 3 times what they were 5 years ago. Gas prices have skyrocketed. She supported the illegal use of the emergencies act or war time measures act on peaceful protests. Etc. We could be here all day. You get the point. Do the people get a straight answer? No. We get "mrrrr. Speeeaakkkeeeer. Thaaaa conseeervatiiivvves are just not like with it. Weee r like totally fighting the weather." She paid 6 figures a year. Probably more illegally. To represent canadians. Annunciate your words. You're not a teenager making coffee. At least pretend that you care.

[@jacobr4166]

"Underperforming nepo-baby" still holds up.

[@cliffh.3279]

I’ve always felt like I vote for the party in Canada, not really the guy at the top. That being said, if they did switch the country’s leader out of the blue, I’d still be pissed off because I do take them into account with my vote

[@JJMcCullough]

No one “votes for the party” because the party doesn’t mean anything independent of the party leader

[@BS-vx8dg]

@@JJMcCullough That makes a lot of sense, but it's actually the opposite of what they teach in sterile political science classes.

[@JollyOldCanuck]

In theory that should be the case, but the leader of the LPC or CPC are allowed to set a platform that contradicts their party’s policy document and are not required to implement their party’s policy document in any way, shape, or form. Policy is usually set by the party leader and it’s taboo for a MP to break rank when it comes to voting for or against policies that your party leader wants to pass through parliament or block. When you vote for a party in Canada you are effectively voting for their PM candidate because individual MPs hold little to no power.

[@cliffh.3279]

@@JollyOldCanuck damn I didn’t even know that’s how it worked. I’ll be keeping that in mind for 2025

[@fascistpedant758]

@@JJMcCullough Technically, we don't vote for the PM as they vote for the President in the US. The PM isn't on the ballot. The PM is the leader chosen by the party with the most seats in Parliament.

[@LordBitememan]

It should be mentioned that Canada has been sick of Trudeau for a while, given in his last two elections the Liberal Party lost the popular vote.

[@LiberateAlberta1907]

@@LordBitememan I voted for Trudeau in 2015! I still to this day felt I betrayed Alberta when I did that! I have been suffering from Voters Guilt ever since. I barred myself from ever voting again lol

[@LordBitememan]

@@LiberateAlberta1907 Well, the great thing about a vote is that you can always vote the bums out in the next election and repair the damage. All things considered I still say that the worst thing to happen to Edmonton in the past ten years wasn't Justin Trudeau, it was Ken Holland. :P

[@LiberateAlberta1907]

@@LordBitememan As someone whose lived in Edmonton for 4 decades, I agree lol

[@LordBitememan]

@@LiberateAlberta1907 As someone who rooted for the Red Wings in the 2010s, I sympathize.

[@omnacky]

We keep getting cucked by the riding system

[@colefender7270]

Slightly above 50/50 is overly optimistic in my opinion for replacing Biden resulting in a Dem victory. Given that Kamala has been a fiercely unpopular VP purely by favorability ratings, I think the voter enthusiasm will not be sufficient when compared to Trump’s base of voters, who tend to be very excited for the opportunity to write down his name at the ballot box. That being said, it’s 4 months out, and the state of the race could be totally different 2 months from now. But the division over Biden remaining as the candidate certainly appears to be hurting the Democratic Party’s chances for November.

[@Winspur1982]

Thanks for admitting that 4 months is actually a rather long time for things to happen. Regardless of our opinions on who the Dem standard-bearer should be, I think we have to accept the uncertainty and mutability of the world as given and not pretend that we can freeze time if we all just pray hard enough / use our Final Fantasy Stop spells learned from Pod Save America (I'm of course assuming you are Democratic-leaning).

[@billfrench1069]

Also, 50% chance for Biden against Trump is outright delusional. The Economist has him at about 25%. Trump is up 3 points nationally, which is simply insurmountable for a Democrat to overcome if true.

[@ricardoguanipa8275]

I appreciate that JJ calls them "Right of Center" party than the misused and abuse term of "Far-right"

[@RegnumHungariae]

right!

[@mikeymullins5305]

why shouldn't we call a duck a duck?

[@numbers8908]

@@mikeymullins5305 Well if the far right are ducks, then I'm not hearing the center-righties quacking

[@TheLurker1647]

Every time I hear someone describe the "far right", they attribute every virtue to them. Liking your country is far-right, having kids is far-right, exercising is far-right, personal responsibility is far-right, being on time is far-right...seems like being far-right is a darn good thing to be!

[@tiredox3788]

​@@mikeymullins5305I mean is the Canadian Conservatives really far right? It looks like they are more acceptable of other religions and LGBTQ people that most Conservative parties.

[@gkarenko9593]

I'm Canadian, but I have a hard time believing the United States can't come up with two better candidates to run the country.

[@maplemusic8851]

Same. Canadian here too with US citizenship but I honestly feel that we need better, younger candidates. I am a Trump supporter because he is the best we have.

[@byronthevideomaker]

I knew the moment i heard biden say "a thousand trillionaires" i know it was so over for him

[@retronymph]

Joever*

[@KurusuPanda]

​@@retronymph Bidone

[@Notimportant253]

I saw that and Audibly winced. That debate HURT to watch, couldn’t make it past 45 minutes.

[@georgehenan853]

@@Notimportant253it was hilarious though

[@richdobbs6595]

You would think so, but I beg to differ. There are lots of examples in history where governments continued, albeit badly with mad kings. I think there are lots of folks that will vote for Biden strategically, just to hope to not have Trump. We are a truly divided society.

[@delta.alpha.novmbr8802]

30% is generous imo. And I voted for the liberals in 2014. Never have I been so disappointed and disgusted with a decision, and I have herpes…

[@zxyatiywariii8]

I hear you, I voted for Biden in 2020. 😵‍💫 I'd be kicking myself now if I could afford the wear and tear on my one pair of work shoes. 😫

[@delta.alpha.novmbr8802]

@@zxyatiywariii8 lol. I feel ya

[@KyleJustinLyons]

Don't underestimate the amount of immigrants that don't follow the news like this who just love trudeau because he allowed them over here and is very charismatic. I don't see him winning a majority but could see him retaining power/another miniority government.

[@thematthew761]

@@zxyatiywariii8why

[@redwolf6213]

I wish as an American there would be a vote of no confidence in the polls. I don't know exactly what that would entail if that where to go through but it would tell congress: 1. That the American people do not want either of nominees to take power 2. That there are people who aren't completely swayed by either party and want a real solution for leadership then just going with the flow that politicians make us choose. This is all wishful thinking. I dont have any real background in politics. But for me if there was an option to say "i have no confidence in either nominee" i wouldn't hesitate.

[@southcoastinventors6583]

We don't have a direct democracy so it wouldn't matter you just end up getting other people equal unqualified but new enough that people will not know how bad they are until serve. Also to do the right action would also be incredible unpopular because one of those things would be to raise the age of social security to about 75 years old.

[@spacemanspud7073]

Why do you think they care? Politicians think if us as a "means to an end" not an end in of itself. If voter turnout was 10%, they would say "huh, how sad" and then look towards the percentages

[@manlethamlet]

This is basically voting independent/third-party.

[@goldenmelon6136]

Well you could turn in a blank ballot

[@Winspur1982]

Nevada always has "None of the Above" on its ballots, as I understand. But of course there are other ways to signal your views. I don't think Nevada is worthy of great praise for its ballot innovation. In the long run, I think this sort of thing only fuels apathy and cynicism, which we don't need more of. I wrote in Jamaal Bowman in this year's presidential primary (Uncommitted was not on my ballot) for what it's worth.

[@Amogumogu]

9:00 that clip was truly the MVP of the debate lol

[@LiveFreeOrDieDH]

Yes, my fellow Americans, we have finally beaten Medicare. Truly, our long national nightmare is over. 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅

[@TheSteelDialga]

Yeah, I feel like the rest of the debate for Biden wasn't as bad as that moment. Kind of feel like people are cherry picking examples

[@felixfourcolor]

8:45

[@Gabe0mazing]

@@TheSteelDialgaI mean that’s kind of irrelevant considering that we’ve never had a sitting President who is incapable of stringing together a coherent sentence. The videos comparing his 2019 clips to now are particularly disturbing considering this is the current leader of the Free World, and he has rapidly progressing dementia.

[@TheModdedwarfare3]

​@@LiveFreeOrDieDHthe beast is slain

[@krim7]

If people wanted a new candidate to replace Biden, they should have cared about this issue a year ago. One of the biggest problems with American politics is that a huge swathe of voters do not care about politics until a few months before the election.

[@Diphenhydra]

Then they complain when things don't work out the way they wanted.

[@Gameprojordan]

Democrats were literally forcing news companies to downplay how much of a failure Biden is. They did it to themselves by ignoring the issue until it was so glaringly obvious that they couldn't ignore it any longer

[@Calvin_Coolage]

And they only care about the least important election in the country.

[@georgehenan853]

And some people care too much

[@ApolloDawn85]

People have mentioned Biden’s age being an issue a long time before now. Most people who voted for him believed he would be a 1 term president whose main purpose was to beat Trump and by 2024 step aside and let someone younger run, but thats not what he did. His ego got the better of him and announced a reelection campaign even though most people didn’t want him to run again. Problem was no other Democrats were willing to challenge his bid since they didn’t want to divide the party against Trump. So Biden basically ran uncontested, but here we are… the Democrats are divided a few months before an election due to Biden’s ego and their inability to think about the long term consequences of running a 81 year old man on mental decline.

[@modern_memory]

Both Canada and the US share one thing: Both the main parties in both countries have several very well educated and qualified individuals who a) could be their party's leader, and b) could run their country, and c) are almost completely unkown to the average voter.

[@loganleroy8622]

Right, but those people aren’t as charismatic and good on TV and therefore don’t inspire people with the same excitement to go vote. So the question is, do you want to win or lose with someone that would actually be a good governor, but will never see power?

[@IsomerMashups]

​@@loganleroy8622 Biden isn't remotely charismatic...

[@loganleroy8622]

@@IsomerMashups Well actually Biden was extremely charismatic in his younger years. He isn’t so much now, but in the 2020 election he was able to hide his mental failing with the media willing to help cover for him. Look at tapes of Joe Biden in his 40s, you’ll see he was very witty, sly, and charismatic.

[@megazombiekiller9000]

@@IsomerMashupsHe used to be, and most of his voters either remember the Obama days or hate Trump enough to not care at all.

[@Bears2024]

A new JJ video to listen to while I do some yard work! Perfect timing

[@joshuasummers7554]

I'm gonna let the frustration from this videos topic fuel my workout 💪

[@BS-vx8dg]

While I often listen to podcasts and KZbin videos while working on chores. J.J. is one I _do_ prefer to watch sitting down. His choices of illustrations and photos really add something to the experience for me, plus it's fun to grab a piece of paper and a pencil and try to keep tally of the number of times he goes up and down on his bouncy ball.

[@dutchysmoke]

Same doing some gardening

[@madmanmortonyt4890]

As an American who has experienced both presidencies I can say with retrospect that I don’t feel comfortable with either politicians, and I don't believe the democrats will rock the boat anymore lest they potentually incur the public's wrath again. Making such a change at the last minute will portray a lack of confidence and unity within the party, which is already showing in how they conduct themselves. In general, it feels like both parties are unwilling to take any risks with a fresh face and would instead rely on someone more familiar. The tradeback, of course, being that these familiar faces are Trump and Biden.

[@MinecraftLively]

Ok but the difference is Republican voters had a primary. We want Trump. Dems did not. Biden was imposed on us, Trump was voted the candidate. The situations are not analogous

[@Gameprojordan]

Zero comparison. Trump is a major risk to the status quo and the conservative voter base love him overwhelmingly. Biden is literally another Clinton/Obama/Bush stooge that overwhelmingly supports the status quo neo liberalist policies that have been in place for decades, and was assigned the position and forced into office by the uniparty

[@retronymph]

​@@MinecraftLivelyTrump largely refused to participate in the primary process and he still wiped the floor with the other candidates.

[@Calvin_Coolage]

​@@retronymphMostly because the few people who had a shot at the nomination out their foot in their mouths and actively went after him. DeSantis for the biggest example.

[@loganleroy8622]

Nah Trump actually has a massive block of supporters within the Republican Party. He controls ~30-40% of the party that like it or not don’t usually participate in politics, but they do turn out to the polls if he’s on the ballot. If that other 70% could have organized around a different candidate in the GOP, those Trump die-hards would just stay home.

[@raptors11111]

Kind of a stretch to call the Canadian conservatives "conservative" or "right of centre" though lol. Theyve compromised on so many issues and moved so far left i dont even know what theyre conserving anymore. But for how things have been the last 9 years ill gladly take Polievre and Trump down south.

[@loganr746]

Well I mean it is quite clear that the Canadian conservatives are definitely right of centre when it comes to economic issues and I would also argue that they are fairly right wing on certain social issue (like with their policies on trans kids), although granted they are significantly more progressive on them when compared to the Republican Party from the US.

[@raptors11111]

@@loganr746 normal =/= right wing though lol. It's crazy how far left society has gone that just not supporting gender delusions is now "right wing" lol. But the reasons i don't think theyre conservative: No promises to cut immigration, no promises to reverse Trudeau era gun bans, no promises to limit/restrict abortions that i know of, no promises/urgency to balance the budget and cut social programs....really all i keep hearing is how they'll axe the carbon tax

[@Wettofromthaghetto]

People's Party 2025

[@raptors11111]

@@Wettofromthaghetto voting peoples party is how we end up with more Trudeau though. I despise our election system lol.

[@fraslex]

Nothing about the Conservative party is "left"

[@LucasSchimmel]

I wonder what the results would be, if Canadians were told to vote for the American president, and the Americans to vote for the Canadian parliament.

[@mechano6505]

There's been a couple polls on Canadians and Biden would win, I don't think there's practically any Americans who even know enough about Canadian politics to make polls meaningful the other way around.

[@sirene88]

Trudeau has always reminded of Tony Blair and not in a good way. In that both of them started popular and through their own actions and decisions make themselves unpopular whilst seemingly not knowing or or caring as to why that is. Also find when Blair or Trudeau smile I shudder but that’s just me

[@TheLurker1647]

Tony Blair is History's Greatest Monster, and Trudeau isn't far behind.

[@thematthew761]

At least Blair always had an heir

[@HamSandwich277]

I don't know what advice I could give Biden, but I can tell you it wouldn't be "Hey, you should paint your face orange before your next presser. Trump way out-organged you during the debate".

[@Gameprojordan]

Biden is too mentally incoherent to do that. He'd probably start smudging the paint off his face and trying to eat it before Jill runs on stage to pull his finger out his mouth and escort him to the bathroom since he also shit his pants about halfway through the ordeal

[@weston06.]

They want him to look younger, lol. Maybe dye his hair blonde too, you know, to emphasize that youth.

[@cutepuddleslime8201]

You seriously need to do a video on Trump's history as a politician, the claims of what he has done and what the sources really say. Or even just how American politics really work. It is so politically conflicting and confusing for me to see both sides of the spectrum, and I can never tell which side is telling the truth or not. And watching your videos is so refreshing to see a moderate perspective that isn't heavily polarizing that one is better than the other. If anyone here though has video recommendations on the topic I mentioned in the beginning, let me know. Thank you!

[@johndaly2816]

Young Americans always point to Canada when asked which country they want the US to be like. Seems like they need to read more International news.

[@IsomerMashups]

At least we didn't just declare our PM a king.

[@zonatechimp1568]

​@@IsomerMashupswtf are you even talking about

[@IsomerMashups]

@@zonatechimp1568 Apparently you're politically unaware enough to not realize the Supreme Court of the USA just ruled that the President of the USA has almost total immunity to criminal prosecution.

[@maplemusic8851]

I am a Canadian living in the US with US citizenship. Canada is an autocratic hellhole these days. Trudeau is the worst.

[@milkwalkerjones633]

@@IsomerMashupsThat's such a laughable oversimplification it's scary but I guess I would expect that from people who get their identity from TikTok.

[@gyorgyor7765]

Of the 7 leaders of the G7 nations at their last meeting, anywhere from 5 to 6 of them could be gone from office by this time next year. UK Prime Minister Suniak is already gone having lost his election (side not there have been 6 different UK Prime Ministers since Trudeau became Prime Minister), rumours suggest President Macron could resign over the disasterous for his party parliamentary elections, Biden could resign because of mental decline caused at least party by age, the German Chancellor is extremely likely to be defeated by the next election, and of course Trudeau might be forced out by cacus revolt over his growing unpopularity. Japan I don't know. Only Italy's PM appears to be safe for this year.

[@yansen1568]

Japan's PM is troubled, in September there will be a party leadership election where he has to defend his mandate, in polls his party is only slightly ahead and behind in party-list polls, his party also lost a lot of by-elections and local elections

[@Hoopsnake]

For the Democrats, I think you nailed a key point - they're worried about the downsides of swapping Biden but aren't considering the positives. not to throw too much shade, but having lived in both America and Canada, many Americans care much more about politics as entertainment than as anything else. I think that's what leaves so many liberals scratching their head over Trump. His voters love being part of the show, and are so disconnected from politics as an active thing that it doesn't matter to them what he does or says. But that goes the other way - a new Democratic candidate would be such "big news" that it would end up being an entertaining story to hook people. For Trudeau.... I put his chances about as bad as you do. I think he's been extremely lucky in that the other parties have struggled to get not just messages but even appearances to Canada as a whole. The Conservative party in Canada has an immense self destructive urge to play the "Bloc-Alberta" which makes them sometimes lose sight of the bigger picture, which has helped Trudeau immensely. Maybe Trudeau should have spent time cultivating other talent within the party?

[@OddGamerCA]

At this point it’s about who we would rather NOT have as president/prime minister

[@zxyatiywariii8]

Ikr, it's sad. We need better choices.

[@mysticalmonotreme]

Interesting analysis, as always. I would quibble on the Liberals' chances of electoral with Trudeau because he is at the centre of their current issues, most notably how disconnected he is from the public mood. Indeed, I doubt that the Liberals would have even addressed the housing and cost-of-living crises had Poilievre not been constantly harping on it. His and the cabinet's reaction to the loss in Toronto-St. Paul's was telling as well. Instead of pivoting or showing any capacity for self-reflection, Trudeau believes that he needs to work harder on forcing unpopular policy on Canadians, which I see will result in a greater backlash. Lest we forget that the LPC has been pushing hard on the "far-right American politics" narrative for months now and there has been no appreciable movement in the polls with the LPC 15-20 points behind.

[@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745]

Wow I'm so happy you're covering this

[@abrakadaver7495]

Canadian and American Leadership Crisis? France and Germany have entered the Chat.

[@fredsystra7584]

I think it’s the failure of policy that has lead to the absolute cringe from both democrats and liberals. the belief that the government does better with money than canadians themselves is laughable at this point.

[@canuckguy0313]

@18:43 I never had “JJ writes the Liberals’ ad campaign for them” on my bingo card but here we are.

[@nikzito2]

i know you dont include mexico in your videos a lot but mexico will also be changing its head of state at around the same time! she's already elected but i thought it was interesting

[@warlord95Sweden]

I think he didn't include Claudia Sheinbaum because she is left leaning

[@nikzito2]

@@warlord95Sweden oh yeah i wasnt expecting her to be a major part of the video, just a quick mention at the beginning when saying that the us and canada were changing leaders at the same time

[@feliz2892]

Nah Mexico is juste closer to latin America than North America in politics and culture.​@@warlord95Sweden

[@ferni...]

​@@feliz2892 in politics yhea... maybe Culturally? Maybe to central america, but in South America i cant see anything beside problems with drugs contacting Mexico more with S.A. that with the US

[@freopt]

@@ferni... language and everything that comes with that (media, communication, etc.), level of development, corruption, football/soccer, constant use of the word gringo as an attempt to distance themselves and self identification as latino, geopolitical alignment and overall prominence, catholicism The U.S. is extremely influenced by Mexico and minimally by S.A. but Mexico is South American in everything but geography, the same way Guyana and Suriname are geographically S.A. but culturally N.A./Caribbean

[@alpacamaster5992]

Trudeau is in a far worse position than Biden in my opinion

[@-ThatGuy-]

Yeah. The conservative party leader in Canada is more akin to Biden in 2020. Safe and moderate by comparison to a very unpopular sitting prime minister. In Biden's case he may be incompetent and unexciting. But his opponent is equally incompetent and potentially dangerous. Biden is much safer in that a lot of people don't feel they have much of a choice but to vote for Biden just to keep Trump out. Trudeau is nowhere near that safe. Lol

[@Sam19509]

Yes he is down 20 pts in the polls because he has spent like $0 on attack ads defining his opponent Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives have been running misleading ads about Poilievre for two years non-stop on tv, radio and online via KZbin Ads. They fundraise and spend a lot more money on campaign attack ads. When a general election is called there are legal spending caps placed on all parties so the Liberals will spend on par with the Conservatives and I think that is where their lead craters. 😂😂

[@gwenpolo1307]

I mean, at least the majority of Canadians view Trudeau as a functional adult.

[@dman4435]

@@alpacamaster5992 agreed. There is such a small swing vote in the US. More possible to move. When 70% of Canadians don’t like you. That’s a hard chunk go change their minds.

[@mechano6505]

@@gwenpolo1307 He's further down in the polls though, and his opponent while also divisive is not actually Trump-level divisive according to polling.

[@GabePuhJ]

I love your traditional journalism skills. The fact that I can't tell what political party you support or how you personally feel about the topics you talk about makes for a refreshing break from traditional media and their highly biased reporting. Love your videos, JJ!

[@TommyCrosby]

Politics is one weird place where you pretty much never see someone in charge leaving at it's best heights or to answer the call for change. It's almost always "come get my place from my cold hands"

[@KingUnKaged]

One interesting difference is the speed with which their respective popularity declined. Biden seems to have taken a relatively stable slide downward over the course of his term, whereas I feel that Trudeau became radioactively unpopular almost over night.

[@JJMcCullough]

I think in some ways the blackface thing actually did do a fair bit of damage. He stopped being cool and support for him had to become a lot more qualified.

[@sumdumcanadian1804]

@@JJMcCullough Also the way he handled the recent protests from the freedom convoy to the pro Palestine has lost him favour. Carbon tax is largely unpopular, funding for Ukraine is not popular either. Seems like everything he does just becomes divisive. (and his cabinet members are just as incompetent as him)

[@TheLurker1647]

@@JJMcCullough It was surreal, the night he won the first election. I was at a movie screening in Toronto, and after the movie the host said, "Justin Trudeau is the new Prime Minister!" and everyone cheered, while I groaned (I knew what the outcome would be, but still). I just couldn't understand how people could be suckered in by the guy. He was never cool, he was always cringe.

[@Hoopsnake]

@@sumdumcanadian1804 Curious as to where you are in Canada. Funding for Ukraine is one of the few things I've seen that is widely popular, given Canada's large Ukrainian population, even in (or especially in) regions that aren't generally pro-Trudeau. By the same token you didn't bring up what I most commonly hear as what angers people the most consistently is his increases in immigration during a housing crisis.

[@lajya01]

Poilievre has controlled the political game since he's the conservative leader and he's very good at channeling the problems of Canada against Trudeau's policies. The previous leaders were playing too defensive and let Trudeau in charge of the game.

[@benjaminwilson2945]

Cool video. It would be interesting if you made a update video on the British political parties.

[@AnthonyOnPatrol]

Was at the Rolling Stones concert at BC Place this past Friday, they brought Trudeau up and it was probably the loudest boo I’ve ever heard

[@thomasprat7760]

People have been (rightfully) saying that Biden is senile since 2019, it’s so crazy that it took so long for some people to acknowledge it, and even crazier that some people are still denying it. (No I’m not a right winger.)

[@Pistolsatsean]

Calling either of the current establishments progressive is laughable

[@haskell_cat]

Justin's political career began earlier than that; he was a candidate in my constituency before he became a candidate prime minister. I went to the local debate and he was absolutely amazing. I had never voted Liberals before and I have voted Liberals ever since 😮

[@JJMcCullough]

Earlier than what?

[@haskell_cat]

​@@JJMcCullough I meant "earlier than when he ran for Prime Minister", but that was my mistake. The overall vibe of part 1 (1:42-3:10) was that Justin did not do politics at all until the Liberals took a big Chance with Justin as their new, completely different leader. But watching it again, I now see that in that very section, 2:20-2:30, you do mention that he did start his political career with smaller roles. Mea culpa!

[@williamrosswhite]

Also of note is that Obama picked Biden to pacify the more regressive and conservative elements in the Democratic party. Because he was campaigning as a progressive while not actually being one, he needed needed The Establishment incarnate to balance out his candidacy and that was Biden

[@onefalcon7536]

The issue with the Democrats selecting another candidate is that Republicans might go off to sue states over the new candidate perhaps leaving this new Democratic candidate off the ballot in key battleground states like Wisconsin.

[@realCyng]

If the roles were reversed that would absolutely happen, but republicans don't have the balls to do something like that.

[@yansen1568]

Wisconsin has a D governor though and their Supreme Court is Liberal majority

[@simonpodliska1072]

its about time the U.S chooses someone new to lead us, besides old idiots like Biden and Trump. Thats why I would like to put forward my great great great grandfather's skeleton as president. He's well respected, and really knows how to get things done. He's not as young as he used to be but he's a safe pick for sure

[@sneakers_guy5488]

Some advice I would give to the Liberals (and NDP) is to tone down on the virtue signaling, people find Trudeau and Singh insufferable. I say this as someone who's voted for Trudeau the last two elections. Also, the majority of Canadians have a limited desire for progressive politics, the Liberals and NDP need to read the room and reflect what most Canadians actually want, and not cater to the fringe loud minority online.

[@Leafsdude]

Still always curious. What does "virtue signaling" even mean?

[@FDR-1933]

.

[@sneakers_guy5488]

@@Leafsdude What comes to mind for me is when you express a position that you hold as a means of showing how much better you are than others for holding it. Ex: Touting your new DEI policies to demonstrate how much more anti-racist you are when compared to your contemporaries. To be clear, holding the position isn't the problem, it's the framing of holding that position making you better than others for holding it. Even though I think the policies I want implemented are the right thing for the city/province/country I'm voting in, I also realize that those that hold opposing views are doing what they think is right. Some would say this is moral relativism. I can see their point, but there are many ways to organize a thriving society as can be seen around the world.

[@rge9857]

And you will vote for him again.....because you're a Liberal.

[@akiradarveauwillms]

Agreed. Both parties severely overestimate the support for progressive politics in Canada. In fact, even the Conservatives overestimated this and it showed in the last two candidates they ran, who were publicly supportive of progressive policies and billed themselves as 'alternatives to Trudeau.' Now conservative parties in Canada at the national and provincial levels are getting more confident about policies such as parental rights in schools and limits on minors accessing gender reassessment, etc. and are still doing well in the polls. The main problem is that working Canadians, and now the large numbers of Canadians who are suffering from a weakening economy, just want to own a house and put food on the table and so Liberals and NDP lose many of the people they claim to serve when they focus on progressive policies that don't impact the majority of Canadians.

[@PapaJoeB]

I was hoping for this one :). Thanks JJ!

[@night6724]

polls show Trump outperforming those younger more exciting democrat candidates like Kamala, Gretchen whitmer (Gov of Michigan) and Gavin Newsom

[@tysawyer4502]

I was born in 2004. How tf am I a voter already

[@tomhalla426]

I first became aware of Biden during the Clarence Thomas Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Biden was singularly partisan, and not very interested in substantive issues. Trudeau reminds me of Jerry Brown, another nepo baby.

[@MinecraftLively]

I love how Thomas has been sticking it to him at every turn HAHA!

[@tomhalla426]

@@MinecraftLively Pulling out Anita Hill was an anticipation of the Kavanaugh hearings. Very few people who watched the hearings found her credible, despite the legacy media lionizing her. Blasey Ford was a similarly unconvincing witness.

[@seneca983]

Big props for giving predictions with actual probabilities (as opposed to e.g. prediction of a single outcome).

[@garth8602]

You truly are very unbiased and it’s a really needed refreshment in times like today.

[@MomovskyChannel]

The worst thing is the fact that Biden did not turn like this last week. He was like this during the primaries, where he confidently won. Who were those Democrats who voted for him during primaries and now want him to drop out? One may also even argue that he was like this 4 years ago, but that's a whole different conversation. At least let us look at those people who decided that Biden was OK to re-elect 1 month ago with 87% of votes. Let's ask them questions.

[@jimislaughterback6280]

I'd vote for a pack of hot dogs if I were convinced their administration as a whole were more effective.

[@lajya01]

Is Deez Nutz still on the ballot this year?

[@ItsSeanMcCarthy]

Obviously as an American, and as an American who’s heavily interested in politics, the post-debate Biden fiasco has been everywhere the past few weeks. I watched the debate live and found the entire moment just an incredibly sad reflection of the state of American presidential politics given Biden’s performance and Trump’s relentless lies and mistruths. Regardless, this “story” isn’t going anywhere because it’s been a theme of Biden’s presidency, and frankly just a stigma with him, for a while now. Not a single person I know hasn’t said they’re not nervous or worried, regardless of what they think he should do or how they lean politically. I live in Massachusetts, and our own Governor visited him and later said that something to the extent that he needs to really think of whether or not staying in is the right choice. Massachusetts voted for Biden by nearly 65% in 2020. We’re a solid blue state. The amount of Trump and RFK Jr. bumper stickers and lawn signs has only ballooned since this all went down. This is an issue I am more surprised by how poorly they’ve handled since than it actually happening in the first place.

[@BlueprintScience]

It’s being said that Biden would be competitive absent his mental state concerns. But it is worth keeping in mind that he was still losing both the popular vote and electoral college by a bad margin prior to the debate and that news cycle.

[@RegnumHungariae]

JJ, I hope you are doing well, you seem quite down recently.

[@London_J]

I think it's clear that both nations are done with the Heavy progressivism. Yes, There is ways to make progress, yes progress is needed in the world and our nations. But not every policy can be progressive. Specifically the energy field and taxes field.

[@winconfig]

You have a special way of being palatable to a vast majority of people. Thanks for your unique style. You're truly one of the better people I've discovered in the past year-ish.

[@AlexPotvin]

Hello JJ, I like to validate unimportant statements sometimes: You say voters are wary of keeping the same folks in for longer than 8 years on this continent. This immediately piqued my curiosity. Canada's last runs marked by party changes Harper - 9 Trudeau - 9 Martin-Chretien - 13 years, benefitting for aftermath of the previous. Mulroney - 9 years, hyper contentious era. Quebec Legault - going on 6 years - will likely go to 8 and lose at this rate. Couillard - 4 Marois - 2 year blip Charest - 9 Bouchard - 4 Ontario Doug Ford - 6 Wynne - McGuinty - 15 years Harris - 4 Manitoba Kinew - fresh Pallister - 7 years Selinger & Co - 17 years Saskatchewan Wall and Moe - 17 Years Calvert & co - 16 years Alberta UCP era - 5 years NDP blip - 4 years Conservative era - 44 years BC NDP - 7 years, heading for a likely third win if the right wing vote does not consolidate completely. BCL - 16 years NDP - 10 Years SoCred - 14 years NFL parties last 3-4 terms or longer. Last two were 11 years respectively. Nova Scotia is a bit floppy..Longest in recent history was 11 years. New Brunswick - Irving owns the place but follows your rule the most otherwise. I think that's the only one so far. PEI seems to be 3 terms. Not a big power or population centre. Weird dynamics there currently that's seemed to have shortened terms. Yukon - a bit volatile, 3 term is the longest. Unclear were the current power agreement may go after this term. NWT/NV - government style too different to be relevant IMO. Nutshell: I don't think the 8 year rule applies to anyone in Canada. If I go to Mexico, presidential terms are 12 years. Senatorial 6 years and the legislature 3 years. Morena's had control of that chamber for 8 years. Senate they control for 16 years. If you go back further you had PRI dominance for YEARS prior to the 1990s turmoil that saw the rise of PAN. USA: Gerrymandering in countless states (some do electoral commissions like Canada) and electoral college skews this extremely weirdly as Democrats technically dominate but are more often than not shut out of many states nowadays. At some point that may change, but I don't find it to be a reliable way of measuring this. And... I guess party hold on many states is increasingly solid too so, there's that.

[@psycghost777]

It's Joevor True Though

[@CorrosionX4]

Justin Trudeau will never be able to walk down the streets of Montreal in his future

[@rushyscoper1651]

u assume he walk, those ppl fly above ur head and shame u for using ur gas car.

[@handsomelyditto4215]

not like anyone needs to ever do that

[@awesomeguy9513]

He basically ruined his family name for decades to come, think who’s gonna wanna do business with a Trudeau after Justin’s awful leadership that’s just PR deadweight for any company

[@williaminnes6635]

That fucking island is his last redoubt. I'd be surprised if it ever flipped. If anything, the enduring lesson for the Conservatives is to look at Montreal as at best Bloc territory in the suburbs, and an intrinsic electoral wasteland in town, stay on speaking terms with the Bloc, and not worry about trying to message to the rest of it.

[@williaminnes6635]

The most hallucinatorily optimistic scenario is that the new islamophobia censorship bureau decides it really wants to take some scalps and provokes a nasty backlash against the Liberals that results in the Bloc expanding its beachhead on the island.

[@shonenjump01]

I haven't watched the whole video yet, but I already know it's gonna be really good.

[@ZS89908]

We need a leader from Ontario to represent the overwhelming majority of Canadians. The prime minister being from anywhere else is fine but will end up being out of touch and will find themselves doing embarrassing things like Trudeau has done. We need perspective. A french prime minister who doesn't care about English-speaking Canada or a prarie prime minister who couldn't care less about the biggest cities in Canada IS a problem (even if you dislike Toronto from that dumb old stereotype) its still not OK when you factor in the number of people living there versus everywhere else.

[@Clyde_Ono]

Left of Centre =/= Progressive

[@Lawfair]

Agreed, and being the less conservative party doesn't make one left of centre or left period. On every issue that matters to me the Democrats are ideologically coterminous or to the right of the mainstream conservative parties in most if not all of the Anglo-sphere and Europe.

[@MyEnemiesLoveDeath]

Democrats are not to the right of European conservative parties on immigration or trans issues

[@Clyde_Ono]

@@Lawfair good add, was gonna say myself that the Dems esp have been shifting to the right since Clinton perhaps. Also anyone that supports genocides are not progressive.

[@Clyde_Ono]

Minor critique btw JJ. You are one of the most objective and fair commentators out there. I can’t believe you are actually conservative and friends with a-holes like Jamil Jivani. 😉

[@nickfifteen]

​@Lawfair this is what drives me nuts about the Democrats. Like, with the Republicans, I know what I'm getting (and I know to generally stay away from them). The Democrats however are conservatives with progressive paint on, and that comes off as a bit deceptive or at best disingenuous, because, no, I don't know what I'm getting with the Democrats. So it's a choice between rotten conservatives and conservatives pretending they're not. No winners here.

[@alexisrrn]

Who would be Kamala Harris' Canadian equivalent?

[@lostcauselancer333]

Kamal-eh Harris

[@Bruvva_Wu]

Freeland

[@MastaBaitaAmbatukam]

Jagmeet Singh.

[@JJMcCullough]

I mention her in the video

[@CKNYTO]

trudeaus trashy ex-wife ;)

[@Knobbler]

always good to know what the homeless population thinks

[@professordogwood8985]

1:59 I love the looks on Sacha and Margaret's faces. Sacha looks overwhelmed, while Margaret looks like she's rolling her eyes. Justin meanwhile makes a very photogenic mourner.

[@verrico7536]

Love the hidden leaf village shirt + rock lee!!

[@lovelessmbv1991]

or as jj would call him, green naruto

[@krombopulos_michael]

This is probably one of the most optimistic Biden/Democrat forecasts I've seen. Trump is widely disliked but he's still consistently leading in polls, especially in swing state polls, which he never did in his two previous elections. Previously, I thought this could narrow as the campaigns ramped up and the decision came closer, but now I think one real disadvantage of Biden staying on the ticket is that he just can't campaign hard enough to turn this around. Normally after a bad debate, a candidate would want to get out there and make as many public appearances as possible to change the narrative, but Biden didn't really do that. It's clear now that the debate performance was not just some abberation; his team expect he will look like that fairly often and are only having him make limited appearances to control the exposure. They're no longer playing to win, they're just playing to minimise the loss. Thats why I think a hail Mary replacement candidate would still be better. Even if they are also not that popular and it's a high risk option, they could still campaign vigorously and put attention back on Trump himself, instead of having the campaign focused on how feeble his opponent is.

[@EnigmaticLucas]

I don’t Biden has ever had enthuastic supporters. Most Biden voters in 2020 didn’t really vote _for_ him so much as they voted _against_ Trump.

[@jeannedenbigh8919]

The most corrupt in Canadas history

[@MrJonyish]

Loving how your hair looks these days JJ keep up the amazing growth dude! Looks good on ya!

[@djiboutinationalanthem5252]

Its interesting that the US and Canada might turn right within this year, since two days ago (July 5) was first day since Jan 20 2001 that the US, Canada, and UK have been led by their center-left parties.

[@adanactnomew7085]

IT'S JOEVER AND IT'S TRUDEAUVER

[@I-did-September-11th]

Justout & Jover

[@joshntn37111]

All Democrats could move to Canada and we can have all the Conservatives Canadians.

[@Dimitristhe]

I've noticed that with very small exceptions, since 1945 the U.S., Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom have never been ruled all together by parties on the same part if the political spectrum. You always have one country on the otherside. For example, while Britain, US and Canada were ruled by Conservatives in the 80s, Australia had social democrat Bob Hawke. And until recenrtly, while US, Canada and Australia had left of center governments, Britain had a conservative one. The current period is one of the exceptions. If we include New Zealand, however, the rule always applies.

[@hanshengchen615]

JJ will the Liberals go to the third place?

[@JJMcCullough]

I don't think so

[@0Synergy]

@@JJMcCullough Your right on this, NDP are INCREDIBLY unpopular because they are propping up a deeply unpopular government, if the polls stay on current course it will be Conservative super majority with a tiny Liberal opposition party and a nearly dead NDP.

[@TheLurker1647]

Singh is so hated and ineffectual, not a chance. He might even lose seats himself. The NDP abandoned their base. Working class people vote Conservative.

[@arachnid33]

@@TheLurker1647Exactly. The ndp voters appreciate Jagmeet Singh , his Rolex watch collection and bespoke suits. 😂

[@jadenova]

Biden's issue isn't age but mental competency.

[@corey2232]

I'd argue that's the same for both candidates. Trump can certainly yell louder & yap on more, but what comes out of his mouth is more insane than ever.

[@Owensully123]

@@corey2232 you can disagree with the things Trump says but his mental competency is obviously ahead of Biden’s.

[@scapeagoat2520]

@@Owensully123Biden is aging, for the better or worse you can decide. Trump is actually proven to be developing dementia

[@scapeagoat2520]

@@Owensully123Trump is developing dementia though

[@scapeagoat2520]

@@Owensully123Trump is actively showing signs of dementia though

[@jjrneptune]

I once knew a Mr. McCullough with a son by the name of JJ, same name I go by. I always am reminded of that whenever I click on one of these videos. Anyway, solid stuff and I think the American perspective was captured pretty well.

[@joryjones6808]

I woun't say it is just progressives asking Biden to leave, unless you define progressive as anyone left of center. NSMBC, a very coperate and dem establishment, was leading the charge in asking Biden to step aside.

[@gordonstearns2232]

As someone on the left, my opinion is that it was an enormous tactical error for the Democrats to not hold a full primary a year ago, although it is also understandable why they didn't do so at the time, seeing how unusual it is to hold a primary for an incumbent. (Biden's handling of Israel's invasion of Palestine has permanently poisoned his reputation with many young progressives, and had it happened a year earlier than it did, I think holding a primary would've been a no-brainer). But at this point, I think switching candidates is simply too big of a gamble. We have polling numbers to show that Biden's support took only a small dip after the debate, and the polling margin between him and Trump remains razor-thin. You mentioned the short attention span of voters, and I think that in two months time, we will probably not be talking about this poor debate performance anymore. Trump, as you mentioned, also continues to do things that shock and horrify voters, and if the shock success of the Democrats in the 2022 mid-terns shows anything, it's that this latest slate of SCOTUS decisions will be probably be just as bad for the Republicans as the overturn of Roe v. Wade was the summer before those elections. (As a side note, I would love to see a video on the SCOTUS decision about Presidential immunity. I guess I'm biased as a left-leaning person, but as someone who works in law and has taken some college-level constitutional law classes, my opinion is that it's one of the most shockingly awful decisions in the court's history, completely indefensible by virtually any legal standard. You are a right-leaning person who has a lot of respect for a democratic and liberal system of government, so I think your opinion would be a good test for me to see if my dislike of the decision is based on the actual facts of the decision, or just my dislike of Trump.)

[@alabasterledge]

I don't think replacing Biden would make a huge difference on election day, but it would make some. More to the point, if the US Democrats do win, surely they'd want someone more energetic and effective at the helm for four years. But they feel they're stuck.

[@Gabe0mazing]

But it’s not razor thin anymore. Trump has gone from an average lead of around 1.5 points over Biden to now more than 3.3 points. When you throw in RFK that lead jumps to 4.9 points. Trump now has a chance of winning of 72% per pollsters. The simple fact is that Biden has proven himself to not be cognitively coherent enough for the office of President, and his poll numbers show this. Trump is almost certainly going to be reelected, the only question is whether he has a Republican congress to back him.

[@antwandadon2341]

What was Trump guilty of again?

[@gordonstearns2232]

@@Gabe0mazing Idk where you're getting this from. I consider FiveThirtyEight to be the gold standard (they get a lot of shit, but they were almost completely right in 2008, 2012, and 2020, and they gave Trump a much better chance in 2016 than most other outlets did), and what you're saying is completely unreflected by their data. They currently have a 51% chance of Trump winning the electoral college, 49% chance of Biden winning; just a few days ago, it was 52% chance of Trump winning, suggesting that Biden is already recovering from the debate. The raw opinion polls show a slightly higher advantage to Trump, but still within 2.5%, and those opinion polls are less meaningful anyway, since they don't take the electoral college into account. The extreme pessimism that is going around left-wing social media right now is simply not supported by the data.

[@gordonstearns2232]

@@alabasterledge I agree that this is a big problem. I hope, and also think it's fairly likely, that Biden would resign after a year or two if he wins reelection and lets Kamala take over. But I do unfortunately agree that the Dems are stuck; I think JJ's 53% chance of the Dems winning if they dump Biden is too optimistic, given that there's no consensus pick to replace him, and given the enormous chaos and uncertainty that a new primary would result in. (The alternative, of the Democrats just replacing Biden with someone else, would probably go better, but would rely on Biden voluntarily stepping down, which at this point seems very unlikely).

[@thishandleistacken]

Heya. I'm born and raised in Montreal and my lover, who grew up in Ontario, doesn't believe your pronunciation of "about" is real... and honestly I don't know... I've literally heard no one speak the way you do. Is it a particular region or is it a schtick you're putting on since that's what Americans think we all sound like?

[@therealshug]

4:42 "and his decision to make him vice president helped set in motion the sequence of events, that led us to where we are today." THANKS, OBAMA!

[@jonrolfson1686]

Reasoned, well constructed explanation of how things are and what has happened before. Add to that properly caveated predictions of what might be expected to follow from the incumbent Parties’ predictable choices in both countries. It must be noted that Canadians are tonsorially spoiled for choice with Poilievre vs Trudeau. US voters are rather more challenged: we have to try to look beyond two ridiculous, painfully obvious, patently obfuscatory, multi-decade responses to normal hair loss.