Risky River Check-Raise BLUFF! Will It Work?

[@CrushlivePoker]

What do you think, does this river play work often enough to be profitable?

[@1vailchris]

It's very read dependent. I wouldn't expect a rec-fish to fold 2P+ if they played it this way, but a good player might. I wonder if a smaller x/r looks even stronger, like $675. If I was V with 2P, that would put me in the blender. My gut tells me that V was betting pretty thin here, and might actually have had AT, if he didn't react badly when he saw hero's cards. Maybe AdTx, blocking the nuts. Hero's line doesn't look very strong, so maybe he thought he could get looked up light by worse pairs, like KT or QT.

[@johnf1772]

Just not sure how often someone bets T9 for value, then folds. Quite often that same guy checks behind (right or wrong) because he figures worse hands won't call. Case in point here, hero believes his top pair is beat now

[@RaulGroom]

What are we saying we have? KQ no diamond maybe? If I'm villain I'm very skeptical of this check/raise as I'm not sure what hands hero gets here with from out of position that complete on the 9.

[@johnf1772]

@@RaulGroom Sure, KQ with a diamond can play this way. 87s can. Adxd can. The ongoing issue is if you have these hands you're wanting villain to call with two pair, and if you have nothing then you're hoping the villain folds two pair. You gotta pick one.

[@pot_kivach160]

No. 6x river raise speaks about a weak hand rather than a strong one. I'm not folding any two pairs or better. In no way a nut flush would've played this way (nor a straight, nor a set). So: this bluff was very obvious, and most of the time would've ran into a stronger hand than not.

[@AntiGraham]

Villian had 10/9 suited. The villain believed he was in the lead on the turn, the majority of the time but hero called the turn bet, which means the Jack may have improved his hand. The river gives the villain middle 2 pair which makes him the winner the majority of the time, but it also means a small stab on the river entice a call from top pair. The check raise from the hero makes the villains holding a bluff catcher. The sizing means the villain has to defend just over 1/3 of the time. Due to their history and playing the villain believed the hero, was bluffing less often than that and made the fold.

[@supersmoo7377]

On the flop this hand is great for check-raising. You have three to a straight and a back door diamond draw. You have two over-cards. You can likely get any pair under a Ten to fold. If the turn is a good card for you, you continue betting. If the turn is a bad card, you can check and evaluate.

[@jamiegrehan2677]

Yes, but i was also thinking a call flop, check raise turn no matter what peels also .. gets more money and there is no bad turn cards for your holding

[@MyChannel439]

"Send me their names". Ok...nervous laugh...😅😅😂😂

[@maxb.4658]

*Laughs in privacy protection *

[@ndjoyce13]

Just curious: When will the winners of the WPTA seat giveaway be announced?

[@qazzaqstan]

I like the x/R river (unless Btn has a reasonable frequency of triple barreling with complete air), I am curious about the sizing here simply because I can imagine a lot of people are inelastic in this spot and even 425-500 might do the same job as 875, but don't know.

[@stevesanderson8360]

Thinking he had A-10 w/A diamonds

[@1vailchris]

Same.

[@chelseafanfromasia]

Not a great bluff to be honest. What strong hand would check call oop both streets on a super wet and dynamic board, esp when the flush card came in on the turn, and opt to check raise river? Would hero play a set this way? Very unlikely. Would hero risk the villain checking back the river when hero clearly sense the villain wasnt too strong by his weak bet on the turn?

[@pot_kivach160]

true. the bluff was bad also for 1) attacking an unknown hand. (H did not put enough of pressure to him). V could've had flushes/sets/straights. They all would've played same way. Just b/c V was LAG does not rule out his nutted hand possibility. 2) raise sizing: 6x?! What hand do one expect to call him if he did wanted a call? Nothing less than a flush. No nut flush would've played this way.

[@atfti]

Haven't finished the video, but all the problems that happen here happen as a result of the flop check. Hero had the lead and didn't press it. Yes, the villains could have something that hit the flop, and they could randomly have a low pair with a high kicker, but by checking, Hero allowed Villain to get a lot of value from his high card, *whether or not* that's what he has. That's the problem. Calling is indifferent, check raising just to get jammed on is awful, and folding feels like you were giving up too much equity, when in fact, you gave it up (unless the Villain wildly overbluffs) when you checked. Because now Villain has a strong merged range on a board against a range Hero reports to see no value in. That flop probe smells like Villain has something.

[@jameswalker7420]

Is Bart wearing a backpack? Or a safety vest? Or is it a multifunctional safety vest backpack?

[@johnf1772]

AdTx would bluff the river.

[@MikeJones-zu7cq]

Been there. Super soft games. Love the casino though

[@EllieBanks333]

Well, for starters, the play worked. So there's that. But was it a great play? Or did it just work? I never complain about a lack of reveal, but here it might be useful. What did we get villain off of? Seems like if he's the type to go for thin value on the river with like 65, then the play worked perfectly. Is he though? Did we get him off T9? I'm not sure T9 should fold here, maybe it should. I really don't think this should work against JT though. If I were villain, I would not really be worried about a flush here. I don't see this line from a diamonds hand very often. How does hero have a set here? Does he ever river 99 & check-raise like this? If I have a value hand here as villain it seems mostly like TX, so I'm not thinking TT. I'd probably think hero has KQ or a bluff here. We will never know, but I think there is a solid chance hero bluffed with the best hand.

[@1vailchris]

I was putting V on AdTx.

[@EllieBanks333]

@@1vailchris I have not seen you for awhile! I tend to agree & think a call works most of the time here. I have serious doubts over V having 65. If V had T9 maybe this is a perfect play. It probably should not work often enough on JT+

[@1vailchris]

@@EllieBanks333 I haven't posted many comments to YT lately. Been busy with work, and spending time on 2+2. Glad to know my absence was noticed. As soon as Bart said V shouldn't be barreling off with AT, I thought, "why not?" If V has the Ad, of course he'd be surprised to get check-raised on the river. I'd think Ad5x and Ad9x would just snap fold the river to the x/r, and AdJx probably 3B's pre or bets bigger on the turn. I think all of V's 2P combos bet bigger on flop or turn. So, yeah, I think when V goes 1/3-1/2-1/2, calling off with QdJx is totally fine. In fact, I like check-call better than a donk-lead for a block bet size, because if V has the Ad, he may have been planning to raise as a bluff. I'd have taken the same line as V with AdTx, and likewise would have been surprised to get check-raised, holding the nut flush blocker. Ironically, I wonder how often V would barrel with his 2P on the river, unblocking all of hero's flushes and straights. I would think most of V's 2P would want to just check back on this river, after hero raises pre, then check-calls flop and turn. If I'm V with 2P, I'd be wondering what worse hands we can target for value, and I'd be very concerned that hero either turned a flush or rivered a straight, and may be planning to x/r. From V's perspective, if he has the Ad, he knows hero can't have the nuts, so of course he's surprised to get x/r'd. I kind of wonder if he wouldn't have called with AdJx. AdTx is really the only hand I can think of that would flat call pre, go bet-bet-bet, be surprised to get x/r'd, and wouldn't be angry at himself for folding after seeing hero's "bluff". Seems like hero was actually bluffing with the best hand.

[@daithi1966]

Flop: Check with intention to call, and give up on turn if I don't improve. Turn: He's not capped here, so I'd check call the turn. No reason to get value owned. River: I'd hope for check/check, but that's not what happened here. Raising a bet is probably the best play, but honestly, I'd have screwed up and just called.

[@Cellphaxg]

The best videos shoutout

[@TomRauhe]

I would raise to 225 on the turn, easily.

[@benjamintaylor8665]

mfers be trying to get fancy. whats wrong with calling with top pair. too many nutted hands available to the villain to be trying this bluff. hero prpbably had best hand anyway

[@Badbentham]

Yeah; Villain's line of 1/3 pot Flop, 1/2 pot Turn, 1/2 pot River with this runout smells quite strongly like a fishy bluff, tbh. While I can imagine only very few two-pair hands taking these sizings.

[@Fixundfertig1]

I'm the only one seeing two big Austrian flags on Bart's shoulders?

[@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511]

well g'day mate! let's throw another shrimp on the barbie!

[@Fixundfertig1]

@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511 what do you mean? 🤣

[@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511]

@@Fixundfertig1it's dumb and dumber confusing austria and australia

[@Fixundfertig1]

@@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511 okay 😂

[@4mula183]

​@@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511 bro what are you on to? He wrote Austria and meant austria

[@kevinr2172]

Hero’s hand was strongest on the turn and if he raised to $250-$300 the hand was over before the river weakened his hand.

[@ben-jammin121]

Raising with top pair, mediocre kicker seems like an overplay to me. Only getting called by better, and you block a lot of the draws

[@Samscoinsandheavymetal]

Monday morning quarterbacking is so nouveau riche these days

[@dennisdupuis1567]

He thinks he’s bluffing so risks $725 ? Just call with top pair

[@robertbarnes9211]

He said he might be bluffing, but most likely he's thin-value-betting two pair or a set.

[@drfunkinstein1]

$150 is just an easy snap call on the river

[@MBell1]

Fix the audio Bart!!!