Russia Ukraine Conflict - Who is winning? Where are we going?

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What happened in the war since December? -
What is the object of the war for Russia and also Ukraine? -
How many casualties on each side? -
Who is winning? -
Why is our government lying? -
Is there an off ramp for the US? -
Why is there no off-ramp for the neoliberals and neocons? -
What is a possible short term and long term settlement with or without an off ramp?
Recent Pentagon leaks show that the US government has been lying about the conflict in Ukraine.
This story here is not that there was a leak. The Pentagon leaks all the time. This was leaked on purpose. But who and why? Even that's NOT the story. The story is that the West is lying about Ukraine. They have suffered huge losses. The Ukrainians are are out-manned, out-gunned and under-supplied by large numbers in every category. They are not capable of mounting an effective counter-offensive as of today.
Ukrainian soldiers are being eliminated a much higher ratio than Russian soldiers a ratio of at least 4 to 1. Russia has been winning since day one. They will continue to win until the Ukrainian army is destroyed. This is not a war about Russia taking territory , but about destroying Ukrainian troops. We continue to fund the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars even though our Petagon officials know they will lose.
How do I know?
FIRE POWER
warontherocks.com
"Mar 31, 2023 - Ukraine is firing 6,000 to 7,000 artillery shells per day. U.S. firms produce 15,000 per month. This is a critical shortfall."
(Ukraine was recently were advised to cut down to 3,000 per day to avoid running out, which it has done.)
Compare that with the 20,000 to 30,000 shells Russia fires per day.
TANKS
Kyiv Independent:
"In all, Russia has at least 2,000 potentially restorable tanks, meaning it will not run out during its war in Ukraine - even if it has to roll back its relics from the early 1960s."
Forbes Magazine -- a very pro-Ukrainian magazine wrote:
"Two or three years. That’s how long the Russian army might have before it runs out of tanks, according to one estimate."
This is how I could solve the crisis today.
Ukraine will be in three partitioned zones.
1. Eastern and Southeastern Ukraine or historic "New Russia."
2. Neutralized Non-Nato central Ukraine.
3. Western Ukraine held by peacekeepers from Poland and other countries, Romania, Hungary, Israel, etc..
A very simple solution to the problem could be had if Russia and a new Kyiv government would ditch the Liberal Nation-State World Order and move toward an Original Civilization-State Model. This means that a "nation" is not defined by geopolitics, but by its historic civilization. It is a world view and a philosophy more than a political system. It is how the whole world ran up until the late 1600s. People would need to be reeducated out of liberal ideas to achieve this. But it is already happening.
1. Donbass and Crimea (or portions of Donbass would be ceded to Russia. Kyiv could choose to recognize them or not. Russia would have a limited number of troops in place for security with other "observers" to watch for human rights violations toward ethnic Ukrainians. Possibly Chinese and Turkish "peace keepers."
2. By treaty, Russia would recognize the national sovereignty of central and western Ukraine as a demilitarized non-NATO neutral country by constitutional law. Peace and security would be guaranteed under the UN's international law.
3. Kyiv would not have to recognize Crimea or Donbass. However, Kyiv must recognize the autonomy of those regions, and in addition, Zaporizhia and Kherson (or the southern parts). People in these "gray areas" could have dual citizenship, etc. But the four oblasts would rule themselves and have the right to self-determination in relation to both Russia and Ukraine. There should also NEVER be any visa requirements for Russians and Ukrainians to pass freely between both countries to live and work.
4. In Western Ukraine, for a time period, there would be "peace keeping" troops guaranteeing security of central and western Ukraine. They should be from Poland, Hungary and Romania, but also Israel, Turkey and China could be among them. Turkey and China would also be preferred investors in the Ukrainian economy. So they would have a vested interest in keeping peace among ethnic minorities in western Ukraine.
5. Central Ukraine must remain demilitarized. All Nazi political parties -- or parties emphasizing racism or ethnocentrism -- would be banned in all regions of Ukraine. Nazi slogans and symbols would be outlawed. Nationalist militia groups would also be illegal in all regions -- east, central and west.
6. Everything would be done under a revised UN framework emphasizing international law (as recent documents out of China and Russia have outlined) and ditching the unfair liberal "rules-based-order" of the West in favor of a multipolar civilization state model.

[@purchasedbyblood]

Thank you brother for your very logical insight

[@sacredandthepropane]

Very informative. Thank you for your work and uploading. The Lord bless and keep you

[@casteretpollux]

Ten minutes in, this is clear and appears in line with most commentators. I think with a major Ukraine offensive likely in month's time Russia would be unwise to push forward from Bahkmut but should build a establish the most advantageous defensive line they can.

[@jcr4runner]

I will go out on a limb and say there will be no major Ukraine counter-offensive. They will try very hard to hold on to Bakhmut or push back once it is taken. Russia actually has 120,000 troops in Lughansk waiting for the Siviersk and Sloviansk/Kramatorsk cauldron operations in the summer. So Russia has about 190,000 mobilized troops in the southern and eastern lines as defense to about 200,000 Ukrainian troops, 80,000 of which are already spread along the eastern front. But Russia also has about 190,000 still in Russia and Belarus. They could do literally anything. They could attack Kharkov or do an amphibious assault toward Mykolaev or Odessa. Look for that to happen as soon as Russia announces yet ANOTHER mobilization of a few more hundred thousand. Of course, Ukraine continues it's perpetual mobilization efforts that will get more difficult as time goes on. August/September is the point of no return. (I'd argue that happened long ago, but by then all will agree it is over.) That will be especially true if the recession worsens and gas prices are again $5 / gallon in the US and higher in the EU.

[@randomuser2461]

What is funny is that the cost of 300,000 moab bombs at a cost of 170k each is only around 53 billion dollars. We could literally bomb each and every of the originally stated 300k russian troops with their own moab for what we are spending... How have we not won the war already. Can they fire a modified moab from a himar as a low range version of those larger missiles with some mods like solid rocket boosters and some other stages and fire from a 40 mile range and eliminate positions? It could help unentrench units and maybe blow up mines.

[@jcr4runner]

You believe $130,000 went to Ukraine's military? Most went to the military arms industry in the US. Big profits too. 50 billion went to run the Ukraine government. Pay pensions, keep social services running. A few billion went to Zelensky and the Oligarchs. A few billion went straight to the black-market arms dealers. A few billion went here. A few billion there. Pretty soon we're talking money. But we know it's all worth it to protect democracy.