Sell Your Real Estate Now, But Do Not Buy Too Soon!

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There is a balancing act coming. Prices will fall, so it will be time to Sell any problem or over-leveraged property, however, you do not want to buy too soon!
The Liquidity pumped into the Economy created Bubbles in all asset classes and ushered in Inflation. The Bond Bubble popped in November 2020 and Huge losses have resulted. The Bond crash also caused MBS and CMBS to crash as the Bond Market began to complete and resolve the excesses as rates rose. Banks wobbled and are still reeling.
Many over-leveraged Investors will lose their properties, jobs will be lost, and there will be many heartbreaking issues.
It has been called "Blood in the Streets"; that is when to buy.
You will not want to buy, you will be afraid, that is when Generational Wealth is made.
The Timing Model is very clear that the Real Estate Market has Peaked! It means it is not going higher for a long time. The Cycle completion is most evident in the Commercial Space and huge losses are going to be incurred.
The Spring Market will probably be the last good market; if you need to sell, do it now!
I want to your Business. We love working with clients and earning commission. However, we do not NEED your business to pay our bills or make the mortgage payment. We are free to work on your behalf.
Patience is now required. If you purchase now, you risk losing 30% or more that may take 5-10 years to recover.
However, if you are patient for the next 12-18 months, you might be able to have a Life Changing Oportunity.
I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication.
Schedule an appointment to review your situation.
Let's get ready to invest when the time is right. Contact me to schedule an appointment.
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[@auntiefiat9769]

Not a Realtor or a guru, but have been saying this very thing for six months. Great time to sell, but wait to buy. There is a crash coming. Seems like a no-brainer...but I have been wrong before! So confidence is high, but hopefully not foolishly high.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. It is always confusing when the markets have a change of direction. Cognitive dissonance sets in; the novice wants the crazy market that comes every 18 years to continue. Denial sets in. Then Reality destroys those unprepared. Fortunes are lost! Then those prepared, make Fortunes. Michael Douville

[@circlelabs]

We have no shortfall. Boomer owned homes will be up for sale over the next decade plus. AI related job loss is going to push folks to unemployment and UBI. Who is going to be buying these homes? Perhaps if prices collapse by 40-50%, but not at as is. The residential market is just frozen/suspended right now as people are locked into 3% rates. They can't move. Selling is a great idea. But go into gold, silver, cash, bitcoin, stable coins, energy, farmland.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. There certainly are many variables; Baby Boomers have only so much time left, and the next generation moves up. Yes, there will be many homes vacated by Boomers. Lots of those homes are in the wrong location as demographic shifts continue. The National Association of Builders is estimating that RIGHT NOW there are 4.5 million Homes needed, FNMA estimates 7.5 million, The Millennials are just entering their Family Formation Years and they rival the Boomers in sheer numbers. There are also an estimated 10 million people who have crossed the Borders all will need homes. So, the Demand is there! I agree the prices will come down, but the charts show 2 more waves of inflation which will drive prices up.....crazy timing issue. Michael Douville

[@charlenemariecoraninmemory5130]

my half life story is here i live in Hawaii Kai Oahu hope everything is well

[@Ascendsean35]

WAtching this gave me even more stress and anxiety haha. I've been back and forth on selling my house for months. But afraid to lose the 3.5 interest rate. The house has appreciated a lot, but i have tbe entire mortgage in savings parked in CD's and money markets. So i feel bullet proof no matter what happens. If i sell and im in all cash, i'll be instantly stressed needing to make sure i'm keeping up with inflation until i buy a hedge. Good video!

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the thoughtful comments. You seem to be in a very good financial position. This is what most dream of, affordable mortgage and a good secure cash position. This Cycle will complete, there will be a Recession, and then it will finish and start again. I believe another 2 waves of Inflation are coming which will warrant hedging with Real Assets. Real Estate does very well as long as any leverage is easily serviced. Sounds like you are doing well, good job! Michael Douville

[@AaarRrr-sj9ok]

Lot of people can’t afford homes at these prices and interest rates. Market will correct in 2-3 years which will be bad for new entrants.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. It may take 2-4 years to completely resolve the excesses. 4 years is more the norm. The Carnage will be spectacular! Those that bought too late, will be under stress and many will lose the property particularly if Unemployment rises to where the charts say it is possible. That said, there are always Winners and Losers. It is ALWAYS that way. I started with nothing, and we sacrificed. The opportunity to succeed is certainly still in play, however, no one guarantees success and there is not a trophy for everyone playing. Michael Douville

[@mikehysell1374]

Hope you're correct but as a person who has been hoping to buy a home and hearing this same thing for 3 years now,

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. I not only think so, but I have also not deployed any New Capital since Q2 of2022....almost 2 years. I love to get paid, but not at the expense of my clients. Soon, I will tell you it is time to buy, but not yet. Michael Douville

[@drod9953]

The recession is over because the depression is about to start..

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. I actually think when the NBER dates the Recession, it will have started November of 2023. It will take them a couple years to assemble all of the data, but my data just keeps getting worse. The sheer magnitude of the Liquidity that was injected into the Economy is staggering. The accompanying malinvestment needs to be resolved. Unfortunately, I agree with you; this could get UGLY! The Silver Lining will be the discounted assets that will be available........... Michael Douville

[@dpz3782]

Man I’m worried, I’m buying a house now in a location I want to start my business. I’m going to keep all the cash on hand I can in case the value drops and I can buy more homes on the area. Fingers crossed.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Your home is way different than a discretionary Investment purchase. The value of Home Ownership is immense and the security a home of your own provides for your family is sometimes incalculable. If there are more waves of Inflation on their way, real assets such as Houses should do very well. Michael Douville

[@sarahowens2494]

So you believe that home prices will drop in the short term and then rise again? I’m in Phoenix and want to sell my house to put cash in investments that hedge against inflation then rent for a year. We are looking to re-buy in a year or two

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. The data and the timing model along with the crazy economics we have today all make me believe that asset prices will fall. The Bond Bubble started the process and Bonds have encountered huge losses, Commercial Real Estate is leading the way down for the Real Estate Asset Class and Equities should follow. Although headline employment appears good, below the surface, the Economy is shedding full-time jobs and replacing with multiple part-time lower paying jobs. Credit Card debt has crossed the $Trillion Dollar level, and Savings are at a 40-year low. What could possibly go wrong!!! I also believe more Inflation is coming and a Recession. That makes for very complicated potential outcomes. Without knowing more of your situation, I would be remiss to advise you. As you know, Phoenix is my home market. My suggestion would be to call my corporate office and schedule a time to meet with me or another CREIA to review a course of action suitable for you. Michael Douville

[@johnray3069]

Atta way Mike

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the nice compliment. Sometimes there is an awful lot of data to sift through from so many sources. Always nice to have a helping hand send very pertinent and current information. Michael Douville

[@paullowe-westusarealty2353]

Great insight Michael

[@michaeldouville690]

@@paullowe-westusarealty2353 Thank you for your comment. This will be the 4th completion I have experienced. They are all very similar. Michael Douville