Signs Of The Late Stage Bull Market: Felix Zulauf Reveals

[@Earthman24111]

Felix's opinions are among the most logical and balanced I have heard in a long time. He has a broad enough view to be insightful.

[@robertfloyd2212]

Great interview Meb! Always enjoy Felix's analysis and outlook.

[@FlyNavy1]

Zulauf has predicted 10 of the last 4 bear markets.

[@malvo-crypto]

😂 lol

[@crouchhill]

Maybe then, I can invest my hard earned money with you 😂

[@niallsheehan474]

True but its been the Fed pumping liquidity that has kept them up , because what they saw in 2008 was scary . Felix just said the liquidity is running out , if you have made 50% why risk it for 10% more

[@oneeleven9832]

Don’t start crying when it happens you have been warned..

[@rubibarer]

If all problems are die to centralised banking control, than decentralised are favourable, if currency will decline then again fiat currency less favourable, if bonds and stocks show hesitation, than crypto is the answer.. the world old economic served by the old dogs , maybe it’s time for a change !

[@mikezuraw6420]

A chilling and necessary discussion about risk. Thank you for this.

[@andrewhoover4641]

At some point he will be correct, and when it hits, all weaknesses and false paradigms will be exposed. Don’t be too heavily weighted in any asset class, and for self preservation, have a hedge.

[@ericmetts2289]

That inro music drives me nuts lol. Love the pod though man. Thanks

[@TradingDre]

I love it. The music, that is. As far as the podcasts go...they are always phenomenal. Thank you, Meb!

[@dwdwone]

It sounds like a 70s monster comedy produced by a local TV station.

[@rickfool1452]

amateur mistake: talk less. let guest talk more. keep questions concise no matter how much of a big shot you think you are.

[@hafeld8348]

Zulaf was wrong last year. U.S. is the biggest growth driver in the world. So there should be concentration. Someday the market will go down. Anyone can say that.

[@jimbobarooney2861]

The US markets are packed with global funds, pensions etc, the winning streak feeds itself. I'm in Europe with a standard defined contribution pension. I was little concerned with the concentration of Mag 7 stocks, so shifted down to a lower risk level.

[@Meishach2112]

When was the last time Zulaf was bullish?

[@andrewweber2010]

"Hi, my name is Felix Zulauf. For the past two years I have been consistently WRONG about everything in the markets. If you want to learn how NOT to make money listen to me. I have a track record for being UNsuccessful."

[@karendavtian6651]

Thank you for exelent analysis 🙏🙏🙏👍❤️❤️❤️

[@kenbelshe7969]

Interesting interview and he might be 100% correct. However, I would love to hear something about his track record. I have thought for a long time that it is irresponsible for financial shows to not share what the interviewee said last time. Or the previous 5 times? Why not apply the same logic that we apply to other concepts / industries? For example: every time a baseball player steps onto the field, everyone knows every detail of their career. Times at bat, hits, walks, singles, doubles, triples, hrs, etc. why not in finance.

[@armandogonzalez2304]

I agree with you but there’s a big difference… a baseball player’s past performance doesn’t change. In investing you can be « wrong » on an investment and then « right »… ex. If you bought Tesla over the last two years you were consistently wrong and suddenly it went from being a « bad » investment to a great investment. But I agree with your overall sentiment, we should have scorecards more readily available for all market commentators and prognosticators

[@davebrewer7170]

Great to hear Felix

[@bpb5541]

diversification will save no one. not when everything is declining.

[@Richard-y5u]

This guy has been getting it totally wrong for two years, and charges 15k€ a year for the service. What a 🤡

[@GringoAzteco]

So…just listen to his advice, do the opposite…and…….YOU’RE RICH!!!!! 🤑

[@povarful]

​@@GringoAztecoyou could clearly see the top of the market. If you don't, you don't understand this market.

[@AwakeningTVII]

Its called Contrarian, learn this, you are welcome !

[@annaweiers2947]

Why do you listen to him yet?

[@gentronseven]

@@GringoAzteco they should definitely do the opposite of what he's saying, next year Apple is going to 80 PE instead of 40.

[@tomaszarnovsky3148]

Thanks. Wow 10000% 👌

[@raskelnik]

This guy is great.

[@twhite8308]

🧡Love🧡this🧡video🧡

[@MichelLesa-r4x]

Great content, as always! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?

[@__Dave__]

Best intro track in the game

[@robrol8365]

What about the Trump corporate tax rate cut at 15% for all companies that make their products in the US, the magnificent seven are going up.

[@massonh7476]

ZULAUF’s predictions have been TERRIBLE for the last couple of years.

[@JamesIdentity]

Thinking everything will keep going up forever and pe‘s of 40+ are normal is 🤡 take.

[@bryceclark8985]

You can’t time it but considering new administration and other matters within 1-2yrs seems likely

[@gentronseven]

@@bryceclark8985 The way you time it is by having a condition in which you exit and take profit. If the nasdaq sells off and stays below the 200 day moving average, it's over. Otherwise, have at it. You might lose 10% or so but you're going to be fine if it crashes, it only doesn't work well if the market ranges for several years. You can pick other conditions if you want but go back and test it, it's not incredibly complicated. It's why these markets take so long to break down.

[@gentronseven]

@@bryceclark8985 You can time it, you can change your allocations to something that will decline less or not at all or hedge it out with positions that will make money in a decline. It's actually not even that difficult to identify places and times the market will decline if you pay attention and you will lose significantly less making modifications.

[@MonteRosa849]

Don’t listen to Zulauf’s advise, more wrong than right! Instead tune in to Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe’s DataTrek Research!

[@eclkt]

Thank you

[@HODIUSDUDE]

@11:02 "The economy could weaken more than many expect". I'm not sure how it could be, when every week for the past year, there have been multiple YT videos predicting an economic collapse.

[@antoniolombardo3296]

Everyone is prepared for a bubble. You know what that means….

[@anwarnayani5849]

So mind boggling music are we in night club

[@eekblom-nt6sh]

Ty for allowing comments. You can measure BS by noting who allows comments.

[@jaygatsby1]

Love Felix. One of my faves. Great track record. That said, a small quibble. Anyone who has spent a hot minute in crypto has experienced brutal drawdowns/bear markets/crypto winters. On an experiential basis, they have endured far more than the Goldilocks tradfi boys who have had an interest rate based secular tail wind for their whole careers.

[@tecomaman]

most years are historical high

[@drew9312]

Perma wrong perma bear over years. How these guys remain on media without challenge amazes me

[@1ntrcnnctr608]

yeah, always interesting to listen/watch these interviews months later, not when released. just take note of the bias being fed to the algos which then form the narrative so u can fade it at the right time. financial media is prob the biggest circle jerk of the world, but most ppl wanna hear predictions instead of learning how to react to market moves n dynamics playing out. its like w attention farming; gud or bad doesnt matter, only here its exit liquidity thats being generated.

[@gentronseven]

If they want to save the stock market at this point the federal reserve literally has to buy 500 million iphones to double Apple's profits, $4 trillion of NVidia chips and a Tesla for every man woman and child in the US. Then the current valuations will be justified. I'm not even sure this is an exaggeration.

[@hafeld8348]

So go short and become rich. LOL

[@gentronseven]

​@@hafeld8348 most people who are managing money are selling now or have been selling. So in effect are short. You don't become rich by buying or holding stock, you become rich only by selling it if there's no dividend. When 20 year bonds have 2x the yield that Apple has (4.8% bond vs 2.6% Apple), and Apple has grown their profits 5% the last 4 years while a smaller and smaller number of people are paying a higher and higher price, yeah, I'm just going to sell to one of those people. Apple is the worst offender because they have the most stagnant profits with limited potential, but it's broadly true across the entire magnificent 7. The people not selling it are in fact irrational, it's what makes market bubbles and blow off tops.

[@margator1036]

China will eventually have to create an internal consumer economy. That means lots of new consumer debt creation in China.

[@NupeAtl]

The algorithms have decided to rug pull stocks and pile into crypto.

[@BuddyDog9267]

Is "meb" a real name? Why chosen ? 😮

[@JA-he2qz]

guy comes out every dec. and is negative, at one time he will be right. It may be this time as mkts are very much resembling that of 2000 and a bit of 2009.

[@niklas46810]

Typical for a Swiss analysts to complain about the high weighting of US stocks. I have talked to many Swiss fund managers and they have all been wrong. I assume he has underweighted US stocks for a long time and overweighted Swiss stocks which have significantly underperformed. Even if he is right eventually, he won’t be able to make up for the accumulated underperformance.

[@techfz1]

Honestly for 2 years I have lost on every purchase of puts on s&p

[@peayservices5821]

This guy has no clue how bitcoin works!

[@issenvan1050]

You can benefit from TIMESTAMPS.

[@drew9312]

Would’ve lost many 100%s over years if I listened to him

[@rubibarer]

It sounds like this guy is interested in foreign markets rather than us economy , he supports swiss yen and eastern currencies.. so its only obvious that he lacks the last 3 years bull run.. i have heard the decline for the last decade since covide it only went up, however, the debate of food cost compared worldwide and doge , tariffs and inflation.. the only indicator your missing is the wages !!! People need to earn more money ! Pay less tax and prosper! None of your statements did not say anything about this!!!

[@issenvan1050]

It ain’t about Trump, it’s all about the Benjamin!

[@viking722nj]

The recession will bring down interest rates without any help from the FED

[@bpb5541]

i think stagflation is here and will get worse.

[@jamesmorris913]

At 43:00.."Iran could close the Straights of Hormuz"...I don't think that's likely now, since we'll have a REAL Commander-In-Chief of the military, for a change; in less than a month. They can TRY it..but they will likely find their entire Navy, at the bottom of the Persian Gulf, if they do.

[@gustave7494]

😂

[@larsnystrom6698]

Iran has no intention to close the Straights of Hormuz. They have friends that want it open.

[@shayscott7498]

Are you referring to Bone Spur?

[@nicholas5396]

Not disagreeing about the gist of the bubble however there is an argument to be made that the Cyclical Adjusted PE is not a god measure for the US anymore as the economy is service based and not industrial based. Batnick and Carlson had a good chart and discussed this a week or so ago.

[@gentronseven]

I don't know what their argument is but PE is a fantastic measurement. If you think of these as actual businesses PE makes more sense as a measurement especially for slow growth companies. All financial instruments are ultimately for generating profit. The reason that PE has been higher from 2009-2020 is because interest rates have been lower. An interest rate = PE, the PE is the current yield you get on a company. So if a company has a 42 PE and stagnant earnings, it is the same as getting a 2.3% interest rate. That's a ton of information about a company from just one number, every company with a 40 PE is yielding ~2.5%, I can compare that to what my forward treasury yield projections are (the risk free rate) and make inferences about what kinds of increases in profits the company would have to have, in this case, they'd need to 3x profits for it to make sense. IE, if Apple would need a plan to make 6% profits to make sense. So if the market isn't overvalued right now, how are Walmart, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon etc going to 3x their profits fast enough for me to want to own them.

[@nicholas5396]

@gentronseven not disagreeing with your analysis. I'll emplore you to hear what they say about it starting at the 15 minute mark. Link to the show below. Definitely worth adding to ones thesis about the markets. kzbin.info/www/bejne/iauncpSMf7yGgacsi=jD_01uxjL-rRPnEB

[@gentronseven]

@@nicholas5396 Thanks I'll check it out

[@gentronseven]

@@nicholas5396 It's interesting that he said the ratio broke in 1980, which is also when the interest rate cutting cycle began so I think it lines up. The other thing about PE is that the majority of market participants don't use anything resembling fundamentals to make investment decisions. It's more like marketing and selling any other product than we like to pretend, which also explains market bubbles pretty well.

[@breadloaf2163]

@@nicholas5396 the guys at The Compound are always bullish. PEs don't matter until they do. Remember 2021 and the reversal the year after.

[@issenvan1050]

3.1% GDP is not well?

[@gentronseven]

It's actually pretty bad because of the percentage that is government spending is very high, there's even still covid related expenditures for 3 or 4 years inflating government spending still since it has taken that long to spend it. There hasn't been much economic growth in 2023 or 2024 outside of government and it's evident in the employment numbers too. (I'd also argue in company profits too, which are anemic, even the mag 7)

[@rc8582]

This guy is really old fashioned, he’s completely ignore or didn’t realize we are entering into AI revolution, many traditional economic theories and the ways for valuation perception will change.

[@margator1036]

Eventually the U.S. will have to turn to a VAT tax to help pay for entitlements in addition to the payroll tax.

[@larsnystrom6698]

The US has forgotten the difference between consumption and investments. A subtle hint for you Americans: investments are those which pays back with a little extra 🙂 All taxes in the US are on production! Taxes on corporate profits, on salaries, and so on. You of course put taxes on what you want to discurage. So it seems to me like the US want to discurage production. VAT is a tax on consumtion. So, a compleatly different beast!

[@gentronseven]

@@larsnystrom6698 lol, none of the top stocks in the US are anything but hyper growth get rich quick schemes, that's how these blow off tops happen but they aren't going to learn from this one either.

[@alanmrsic893]

Natural Gas LNG is doing very well 🎉

[@issenvan1050]

If PBoC doesn’t sell an ounce, how will gold fall 10%?

[@margator1036]

For the factory workers of the rust belt things may be much better. For me I will gladly pay more to reduce our dependence on China. China needs to decide if they value Russia or trade with the West more.

[@shayscott7498]

The MAGA Walmart crowd love Walmart so China can rest easy.

[@CherylKenney-u8p]

I've kept much of my savings in cash for safety, but I'm unsure if it's right for retirement. Contemplating investing $400K in stocks, as I've heard investors can profit in tough times. Unsure about my next move.

[@BrienenDreier]

It's impressive how much you saved during your working years, a feat not many achieve in a lifetime. Now that you're retired and rely on your investments, it's wise to redistribute your capital to mitigate risks during market fluctuations. Consulting a fiduciary advisor can help simplify this process.

[@JuneHaussmann]

@@BrienenDreier It's unfortunate most people don't have such information. I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively through a fiduciary advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Doesn't matter the economy trend; great wealth managers will always make returns.

[@CherylKenney-u8p]

@@JuneHaussmann Do you mind sharing info on the advisor who assisted you?

[@JuneHaussmann]

Look up her full name online and you will see every information about her. Her website ranks top, you can as well see her certifications and years of expertise on SEC and FINRA broker check.

[@JuneHaussmann]

@@CherylKenney-u8p Absolutely!

[@viking722nj]

German auto industry can't find enough skilled workers, and they're shrinking

[@issenvan1050]

Why should BTC 🚀 while gold is going down by 10%?

[@vijjreddy]

trump wants tariffs to pay for his tax reductions for the rich and corporations....and whatever other expenses he has in mind..

[@FlyNavy1]

By "rich", if you mean small business owners who employ 2/3 of all Americans, stay poor.

[@davidteitelman3890]

Dip b4 next rip?

[@Detonator007]

It is always “after Christmas “ duhhhhhh