Signs of the Times #5 - On BRICS+, Multipolarity, and De-dollarization, with Glenn Diesen

[@SalvatoreBabones]

Calling a country a 'pole' of power implies that other countries align to it. Few countries align to Russia, China, or India.

[@kapk]

Don't think you understand Asia, South Asia, Eurasia.

[@sage4age]

In terms of definition, polarity does not require formal allies, it merely refers to the distribution of power among states. The conventional realist understanding views this in terms of capabilities. According to Kenneth Waltz: ”The economic, military, and other capabilities of nations cannot be sectored and separately weighed. States are not placed in the top rank because they excel in one way or another. Their rank depends on how they score on all of the following items: size of population and territory, resource endowment, eco­nomic capability, military strength, political stability and competence” (1979: 131). These five capabilities are what counts when we measure power and make claims about weather the world is unipolar, bipolar or multipolar. But of course, the different poles will have relations, alignments, and allies. However, Waltz understanding of power-as-capabilities can be contrasted to power-as-effects. Glenn actually emphasizes power-as-effects when he discusses Russia as a great power. Glenn mentions the fact that the West cannot beat Russia militarily on the battlefield, that they did not manage to crash its economy, and did not manage to isolate Russia in the world. Good evidence that Russia is a pole of power. Essentially power-as-effects. So instead of counting capabilities we should study effects. The English School would emphasize a tripartite definition of great power status: military superiority, a great power club, and recognition. Russia is surely not recognized by the West, but perhaps it is China that is Russia's significant other now. So does Western non-recognition really matter when great power management is gradually being institutionalized in Eurasia? Relevant literature: - Waltz, Kenneth Neal. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co., 1979. - Bull, Hedley. The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics. London: Macmillan, 1977 - Buzan, Barry. From International to World Society?: English School Theory and the Social Structure of Globalisation. Cambridge University Press, 2004 - Hagström, Linus and Björn Jerdén. "East Asia’s Power Shift: The Flaws and Hazards of the Debate and How to Avoid Them." Asian Perspective, vol. 38 no. 3, 2014, p. 337-362. Project MUSE, dx.doi.org/10.1353/apr.2014.0014

[@danielhutchinson6604]

The end of the US Colonial Empire appeared to show signs, large signs of a lack of currency in the USA, after 1967. That led to conversion of Currency among the G-7 Nations to Fiat Currency as Bankers agreed that an economic system that transferred currency in imaginary amounts was simpler than actual flights of planeloads of cash. The Vietnam Colonial Conflict continued to drain US Treasury funds even as the Pacific became a Containerized shipping scene. That expansion of shipping spread into the Atlantic, as Tankers began to increase in numbers fron the Indian Ocean to mingle with the rest. We became Shoppers who were selecting things from ships instead of domestic sources. The Ship Owners grew rich and powerful, the Nations who supplied the G-7 seemed to show little reflections of wealth. Like any Colonial Empire costs increased to support the delivery of cheap Goods, that could be converted to profits by Commodity Brokers. The G-7 Nations seem to have used up most of their domestic supplies of industrial minerals for conversion to manufactured products, and began to build industrial production facilities in their Colonies. BRICS represents a Trade Union to represent the Colonies as well as the 4 original founding Nations. They began asking for fair prices for the Goods that are delivered to Buyers, and no longer allow Commodity Brokers inside G-7 Nations to dictate prices. That may not be a textbook explanation of Modern Economic situation's, but it certainly outlines why the G-7 Nations no longer can afford to deliver profits to Investors in their Countries. It seems to develop as the announcement of the New Development Bank, in 2014, announced their loan program that allows the former Colonies to feel economically more secure. As Nations who were subjected to loans that were so large that they subjected Nations to status of Indentured Servants, who owe all their resources, as if they were Tribute Payments to the Colonial Empire. The system of Colonial Exploitation was condemned by the United Nations, and now it appears to seem like an economic threat to the US Government, so they attack.

[@bradleyp3655]

Pole implies that it is to hold something up or to be upheld. I have heard the term node or multi nodal. I get the impression of a network of interdependent sovereign nations pursuing their own interest based on mutual respect of sovereignty, mutual trust, and mutual benefit.

[@thechloromancer3310]

The very fact that 30+ countries attended the BRICS+ meeting in Kazan, and that a large number of them applied for partner status demonstrated that many countries DO align with these countries. We’re it not for the threat of US ‘color revolutions’, destabilization campaigns, coups (either military or via political manipulation of politically captured countries), etc., that number would be even higher.

[@trekpac2]

Excellent interview. I always learn such a lot from Mr. Diesen.

[@fassilgabremariam7849]

Using the dollar is not only risky but also expensive

[@barrywong4327]

Glenn is right on in his assessment of the inherent flaws of hegemony and universalism. To put it simply, these doctrines have directly led to forever tensions, conflicts and wars on this planet. The US and the so-called west are principally responsible for perpetuating these tensions, conflicts and wars. Glenn is extremely eloquent in expressing his views. Obviously, he is against these doctrines. A couple of days ago, I watched a discussion between Glenn, Alexander from the Duran and John Mearsheimer. I wish that Glenn would be more assertive in pushing back on Mearsheimer’s insistence that the US must maintain its supremacy because that’s the only way for a great power to attain absolute security. As far as Mearsheimer is concerned, there is no alternative to this outdated imperialistic thinking, to which I’m sure Glenn would totally disagree. Anyway, thanks for the wonderful conversation.

[@fassilgabremariam7849]

Europe committing suicide

[@lluizgu]

You are a smart cookie sir. Great intellect!

[@_-martin-_]

I'm from Denmark. I really hope that my fellow Scandinavians are waking up to the fact that it is the US that is the true aggressor in this world! We need to end NATO and make new security and trade agreements with our continental neighbours, Russia and China! Because peace and prosperity matters! Endless wars and conflicts pushed by the US is not in our future interest!

[@charlesyang4923]

To put the long story short. BRICS is not anti-West, but non-West and BRICS is not anti-America, but anti-US hegemon. For the record, BRICS payment system is NOT about creating BRICS currency replacing dollar, but to establish BRICS clear system dealing with national-currency based cross border trades amongst BRICS member and partner states.

[@charlesyang4923]

Make no mistake. BRICS+ payment system will eventually start with a “BRICS numeraire” pegged upon hard coin and tangible commodity” to calibrate exchange rate between national currency before settling bilaterial trade among BRICS+ member state and extendable to BRICS+ partner belt states whilst m-bridge is set to open to all central banks and regional banks of all nations for digital currency transaction, like CBDC.

[@davidchou1675]

Yes but don't forget that this isn't to replace the dollar (de-dollarization) but merely to provide an alternative that protects them from U.S. and European sanctions. They don't actually want to de-dollarize for many important reasons, not even China and not even Russia* (eho's basically stuck with internationally worthless rupees as it is), so all the hype about a "BRICS Currency" (BRICS+ Numeraire) is just unonformed media sensationalism. * India fears even more Chinese clout since any such Numeraire would be Yuan/Renmingbi-based -- and China actually doesn't want its currency serving as the world reserve since that screws up its exports and supply chain dominance...plus, they have a whole lot of dollars on hand which would lose most of its value in such a scenario! Also, it's practically guaranteed that the US would literally go to war over de-dollarization as that would impoverish them instantly...et cetera.

[@mehdi_so]

Professor GD❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ is a fantastic resource that unfortunately is not valued enough in his own country 😢

[@davidchou1675]

I think it's important to understand that there are two different "levels" or types of multipolarity in operation: The first consists of the U.S., China, and Russia -- in that order -- with the secondary level made up by the likes of India and Brazil...that latter level depends on the existence of the first; there would be no role for India or Brazil to play without the emergence of Russia and China. This fact is important when considering how things can play out in a multipolar world, since the leverage of the secondary poles are a direct function of the moves made by those primary ones. It probably sounds very obvious but I haven't ever heard anyone touch on this fact (and I don't think that that's simply because it's all so obvious) and this fact is what will determine how the specific contours of the multipolar world will crystalize -- and churn and change...! So all this talk about multipolarity probably over-emphasizes the power of these secondary actors like India, Brazil, and Turkey; these countries are trying their best to milk all they can out of the increasing chaos (in the strict political science sense) but they remain heavily constrained despite their own propaganda (for instance all the Hindutva "Jai Hind Bharat") though sure of course not as constrained as under a uni- or bipolar system.... So not just the interaction between the three Great Powers but also how the Lesser Powers like India et al. try to pretend they actually have an equal say by playing off different powers against each other!

[@davidchou1675]

So I disagree with the professor that something like India is a true Pole; no one actually looks to India for patronage and indeed they can barely help themselves (despite a decades-long effort; only around half of India has access to a toilet, believe it or not!)...India is barely a power at all and that's mainly due to the size of the country, geographically and demographically. Indeed, it seems like India's sole power rests on its ability to play the spoiler for Chinese ambitions, that's all -- it's not clear who actually looks to India for anything besides countering Chinese influence.

[@_-martin-_]

Glenn Diesen reveals the ignorance and incompetence of our European leaders. As a Scandinavian I am particular embarrassed by the surprising incompetence and dishonesty of our leaders in Scandinavia. Also, all the geopolitical history and facts that Glenn points out are simply not discussed in the public space because the level of US propaganda in our news media is at and all time high! I thought we were better than this! I thought integrity and truth mattered for Scandinavians! When did we become this stupid!?

[@charlesyang4923]

I don’t think BRICS+ group would agree to have a sudden change or abolish of the existing global financial system before establishing a new one. In fact, BRICS+ is proposing a parallel system allowing and attracting global users beyond member and partner states for improved efficiency, cost-less, sanction-proven alternative system beyond dollar. BRICS+ member states, and extendable all global states, can buy time to decide and dispose their existing dollar-nominated assets (bonds specifically) with minimal impact to the stability of their macroeconomics.

[@davidchou1675]

Very nice to hear the good professor (be allowed to) speak at length...too often he's paired with "blowhards and gasbags" who though not ignorant are not detailed or otherwise useful in what they say -- Diesen however when given the opportunity provides so much information. BTW, the Russians are trying to invest in India but...well, India isn't known for its attractive business environment; just ask Charlie Munger LOL

[@thechloromancer3310]

The solidarist group (The US-led West) just happen to be the group that has rampages through Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, destabilizing the region and leading to millions of excess deaths. They are also the group that are providing diplomatic cover for Israel’s genocide while STILL supplying the bombs that Israel rains down on Gaza and Lebanese apartment blocks. The most important human right is the right to life. The last few decades has demonstrated quite clearly that the Western bloc is the most flagrant violator of human rights. The West’s attempts to weaponize human rights issues against non-compliant countries should be called out as the farce it so obviously is.

[@termyfl2677]

china prefer multipolar than bipolar.

[@daveh5947]

Stupid Question! Countries can now Trade with each other without going through SWIFT, Sanctions or No Sanctions.

[@sage4age]

@daveh5947 Of course they can! But it is not self-evident what Russia is going to do with excessive amounts of rupees. Trading in national currencies might be safer for states, as you avoid the rod of the US, but it comes with friction that individual investors and firms rather avoid. The value of national currencies are not stable, which is why people from Argentina to Nigeria sleep with dollars under their mattresses. And even though there is de-dollarization among BRICS countries in their bilateral trade, it does not by necessity translate to de-dollarization at the system level. NDBs portfolio is largely a dollar portfolio, same with AIIB and Chinese loans to Africa. And do you think India wants a BRICS currency dominated by China? Ooo nooo.

[@sage4age]

By the way, the channel is directed to students, not experts like you. As a teacher I often get questions like that. Those questions are not stupid, those are questions coming from students eager to learn.

[@attentionarapeller]

​​@@sage4age"the valew of national currencies is not stable" Are you so sure that the dollar will stay a stable currency still for à long time? I think the fact that China and Russia are trying to create an alternative to the dollar is because they think that the dollar is no longer a stable currency and that the USA become more and more a dangerous country regardless if there is Biden as president or Trump because their principal exportations are wars.and sanctions. To say that does not mean that I am a blowhard or a gasbag but only that I am seriously concerned by the fact that in the world where I am living I have not the right as you have, to formulate my opinion without being deleted most of the time. In conclusion I enjoyed very much the " exposé " of Professor Dison.

[@gregwang8628]

What is the true meaning of US led international order?

[@thechloromancer3310]

The definition for a pole of power should not be centered around the amount of economic or military power a country has, but centered around a country’s ability to leverage its economic, military, and diplomatic power to influence other nations and shape global events. The US obvioulsy qualifies, as its bevy of vassal states allows the US to lead Europe into economic suicide and provide diplomatic/economic cover for Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians. China qualifies due to its huge influence as the top trade partner for 149 or so nations, as well as its ability to forge diplomatic outcomes such as the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia or the formation of a unified Palestinian political coalition for the sake of conduction peace negotiations. Russia demonstrated its ability to shape world events by intervening in the US-led effort to depose Syria’s leader, and its ability to go toe to toe against NATO in a proxy war in Europe. Saudi Arabia arguably counts as a pole due to its influence as the leading nation of OPEC, and the most influential nation in the region. India... has not yet demonstrated its ability to greatly influence world events, though the potential is clearly there and likely just a decade away.