Keir Giles - After 2007 Munich Security Conference Moscow’s Intent to Challenge West Became Clear.

[@EASTSIDERIDER707]

If you hadn’t locked your doors I wouldn’t have been forced to smash your windows. 😅

[@leninha5549]

Finally a S A N E analist who knows what he is saying... !! THANK YOU SIR..THE WORLD NEED PEOPLE LIKE YOU... !!!!

[@stephenbethell9176]

Keir is always fascinating to listen to. Thank you Jonathon for having such great guests.

[@markb8468]

I've been following your channel since you had about 3k followers. Great content and questions to your excellent guests, as always. Thanks again Mr Fink!

[@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531]

Ditto. These are some of the most thoughtful interviews on the subject.

[@tkonzl6059]

Brilliant conversation.

[@appstratum9747]

Always a pleasure listening to Keir. And as ever, Jonathan, a great guest and useful conversation. Let me thank you again for this sort of excellent content.

[@SiliconCurtain]

Our pleasure!

[@squireson]

The fear of a Russian collapse is misplaced. Afterall, having collapsed twice in the previous century, Russia has quite a lot of practice !

[@g0679]

Adderall.

[@VorbildRoß]

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Another example of weakness and lack of foresight by western european leaders was the expansion of the Nord-Stream pipeline project. In June 2015, an agreement to build Nord Stream 2 was signed between Gazprom, Royal Dutch Shell, E.ON, OMV, and Engie. By the start of 2015, Ukraine had already been attacked and a strategic portion of its territory had been colonized by Russian expansion. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 "We shouldn't be afraid of our own power","Defence is not escalation", "We should have all options on the table", "Aggressors, autocrats are provoked by weakness", "If Russia wins we're gonna see more wars around the globe, and this is nothing that we want to see" I wish many NATO leaders had this clarity of mind. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Beware if you have any Russian neighbors. They might want to be protected too. Isn't this how the Russo-Ukrainian war start? A bunch of separatists ask for help, then the tanks a few months later come in into the non separatists regions on a "special military operation"? Next Putin will announce he's sending special operations forces to every high school Russian language class in Europe on the pretext that they have to defend Russian speakers from oppressive homework .

[@stevenjohns-savage7024]

Thanks guys 😊. Stand strong ✨

[@JaneSoole]

Totally agree.

[@sebastianthomsen2225]

SLAVA UKRAYINI !🔱💙💛✌😊

[@christinamuzzu6414]

The silence and, when pushed, refusal to say anything other than "I don't follow politics" or "I have heard from both sides" by all the russians I have spoken to throughout Europe is a depravity. They could say or do so much to correct these skewed narratives here, but they don't. I really wonder if any of them would defend the countries they profit from if something happened.

[@JaneSoole]

Does the fact that Russia joined Hitler to carve up Europe in the first years of WW2, not give a hint as to its future behaviour?.Stalint only "joined" the "West" when Hitler turned on Russia.Putin And even today, you would think from Russian/Putin narrative that Russia defeated Hitler on its own...all West help dismissed/buried/ignored..Could you comment on this please..

[@CollectiveDefence]

Russia has long been an empire of lies, altough it’s a significant trait of bolsheviks, regardless of their geographical location. The Molotov-Ribentropp pact and subsequent events where not the first steps of the Soviet Union on a malign path. Its rot and barbaric, totalitarian nature were seen as early as in the Russian Civil War. I would suggest Antony Beevors books on the Russian and Spanish Civil Wars. Excellent author, excellent books.

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

Ukrainian victory means decades or possibly centuries of peace in Europe. Russian victory means chaos, confrontation and instability.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Definitely till the next totalitarian dictator, rallies the popular nationalism of poorly educated? Oh, wait that's America, 😮

[@goenzoy712]

It's utter nonsense Mass migration is a theme what only started 18 countries in Africa will be bigger then Ukraine in 2035 by population So there is no easy period ahead whatever happens in Ukraine

[@mollirodhaet7224]

What is nonsense?@@goenzoy712 troll. How does it feel to project Hitler?

[@happyfelix1440]

@@goenzoy712Victory of Russia means probable attack on Baltics of Poland.

[@terryhand]

@@goenzoy712Obviously, with climate change added to the equation, mass immigration will be a huge challenge for counties in the Northern hemisphere. But this is a completely separate issue to the chaos and instability the OP is referring to.

[@VALUST17]

Great interview!

[@therivalyn195]

Thank you both for another information packed interview ❣

[@gerhardwiegleb5189]

A great moment on KZbin.

[@johncromwell2529]

Thank you

[@JaneSoole]

Totally agree.

[@cheryldavis7813]

Thank you Keir for a grounded and balanced perspective.

[@JayDeeChannel]

A fascinating episode. In hindsight, putins 2007 munich speech should not have been a surprise if it wasn’t for naive politicians. GWBush looked into putins soul and was hoodwinked.

[@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531]

KGB colonel, expert handler of foreign assets, has no trouble with US Republicans. They're easy fodder for manipulation. Obama and Biden? Putin doesn't like them. They see him for what he is.

[@stevezettle3212]

Maybe Bush saw a kindred spirit. Or maybe he wasn't a rocket scientist.

[@janstageman2412]

Another brilliant interview, Thank you Jonathan. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 💙💛

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@migproductions4045]

The best in depth analysis each and every time!

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@АбырВалг-л3с]

I am from Russia. I approve this interview BASED.

[@dh1380]

Interview = Based Putin = Cringe

[@djparn007]

Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

[@sebastianthomsen2225]

SLAVA UKRAYINI !🔱💙💛✌😊

[@TKMcClone]

Excellent interview, one my favourite guests on the Russia topic. 💙💛

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@davidwright5094]

6:18 If I recall correctly (and it is possible that I don't), Vlad Vexler rather disputes this take. I think he says something along the lines that Putin was driven to take extreme measures (my words) by becoming increasingly aware, and worried, that he was losing the support of, in particular, the generation of young adult Russians. [By extreme measures, I refer to starting a war to annex significant territories, which he expected would boost his flagging poll ratings.]

[@SiliconCurtain]

This does sound plausible to me too. He was losing the generation that were increasingly not watching TV, and were less interested in ‘imperial’ ambitions.

[@spartafly3014]

Fantastic interview, Jonathan and Keir! Thank you so much for sharing your insights!

[@thecount1001]

12:20 he's talking to you John Mearsheimer.

[@cathjj840]

Good one

[@levonlarson4048]

Unfortunately, Mearsheimer's bald head flashed through my mind at that point as well.

[@thecount1001]

clearly you are well informed. it's clear that's who he is referring to. JM clings to his academic models like a dog on a bone. there is no amount of evidence, including Putin's words directly that will alter his view. his entire career is at risk if he does. @@levonlarson4048

[@dh1380]

This guy is pretty darned articulate

[@daveslater]

Thank you for another!

[@luminyam6145]

That was an excellent interview, thank you. Sharing that with my sons.

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@shanecollins8427]

Tremendous insights from your guest . My own analogy on the Putin and the rat story is The wagner mutiny ,when they seemed to be on their way to Moscow Putin was nowhere to be seen. Keep up the great work. Shane

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@Andre99328]

Great interview. Very clearly explained difference between western European and Russian society. Slava Ukraini.

[@davidhernandez4318]

Great interview - as always!

[@Jono-x1g]

Thanks again, Jonathan. Great content.

[@andyreznick]

Algo food and thumbs up! Thank you, gentlemen.

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@Dada_ism]

Totally agree - to make people willing to help, they need to understand what will happen to THEM if they don't, or in other words, what's in it for them

[@JamesC785]

Finally someone else that understands the significance of "putin's rat story" :))) Thank-you Kier Giles, clear & succinct.

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@henriikkak2091]

I *completely* agree with your assessment of the situation. This is a difficult thing for a Finnish person to admit; I've got nothing at all to nitpick. Kudos

[@SiliconCurtain]

And you guys are closer to the ‘pointy end’.

[@NyPer920]

As always, thought provoking narrative. Thank you,

[@jimsack1]

Superb perspective.

[@HatBilly2008]

Both,❤😊 Great video, well done.

[@janazikmundova6794]

Could not have missed this one...and rightly so. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@W0tn3xt]

Appreciate the conversation. I would argue that putin's playbook of raising his popularity by means of military aggression (with a manufactured casus belli) goes back to his earliest days in power with Ichkeria, quite a few years before Munich 2007. The images of Mariupol 2022 and Aleppo in 2016 are carbon copies of Grozny in 2000, just as putler came to rule russia As for the rat story, either the interpretation is that putin ran away from a rat, or that he IS the rat. Neither particularly flattering or that threatening. Just goes to show what a sh*t fabulist he is. Wouldn't be surprised to find "the fable of the rat" in kids' school textbooks across the russian federation some time soon. Heck, maybe fsb colonel gundiayev and the pope will even make it doctrinal

[@The_ZeroLine]

Credit to Giles for being possibly the the first I’ve seen to point out the obvious (to me anyway) fact that many “experts” and academics like Mearsheimer continue to stick to their arguments purely for reasons of ego/reputation and their career. It may be that many are hesitant to make such a direct and personal criticism or they have far too much faith in the integrity of their colleagues.

[@SiliconCurtain]

I totally agree. Keir is fearless in his analysis and fearsome in his criticism of poor quality analysts.

[@The_ZeroLine]

@@SiliconCurtain You’re pretty excellent yourself for the most part in that department too.

[@joansparky4439]

@@SiliconCurtain Keir overestimates the goodwill of the "western elites" and wrongly assumes their goals aligning much much more with their "peasants" and nations than what he described about the RUS elites.. in reality it's all the same soup which is exemplified by how this conflict turned into a hot war in the first place.

[@harryo7978]

Some "common sense" but the politicians just dont listen. Im 68 lived in uk all my life, my parents Ukraine/Polish, in 1940 sent to die in Siberia by Russian Terrorists, i can still remember the horrible times they lived through. No fake news.

[@mollirodhaet7224]

Jonathan, you are a powerhouse of useful engagment. Steady we go. The next few days are going to be interesting. An owl told me so. Much love. Be well, be safe.

[@m.walther6434]

Why didn't experts and politicians see it coming? Of cause there are a plethora of reasons. I'd like to stress two causes. First economical interests, we are accustomed to view politics through economic lenses, is there some profit in it, and in a war there are no profits money wise. But other leaders may have other motives, The greatness of the nation, the pureness of the Arian race, the desire to rule the world, revenge, highly irrational but also possible. In addition, it is not very clever but only human to avoid considering the worst case, when the worst case may be a war. The Munich Agreement as an example.

[@tatyanatavares4168]

Brilliant interview. Thank you so much. It gives me hope for Ukrainian, European and western democratic values future.

[@phillee2814]

The greatest success of terrorist federation propaganda in driving wedges and division inside and between democracies has undoubtedly been Brexit, which has (as most intelligent and informed people warned beforehand) extremely expensive for the UK in particular but also, to a lesser extent, the EU. Without the immense costs of Brexit, we would be in a far better position to increase our defence spending, and the fact that we are struggling with that to a depressing extent is a HUGE win for the terrorists, who undoubtedly feared what an intact UK and EU could have spent, and UK technical military expertise is not matched by our ability to apply it in building the first-class equipment that we know very well how to do, but now lack the means to actually implement. I still think we can and should do more because anything we can do which falls short of the struggle of Ukraine (and nothing can match that) is achievable. The bond between our countries is that they look to our achievement in standing alone in Europe against Nazi oppression at the start of WW2 and recognise the same belief in freedom and willingness to fight for it, and we should be responsive to that. We are falling a long way short of the privations we suffered then, and if we were only to go halfway toward that it would make an immense and overwhelming difference. We signed the Budapest Memorandum, assuring Ukraine that we would have their backs when they gave up the second-biggest nuclear stockpile in the world. We now need to step up and pay the price along with them for the abject failure of the decision to push them, and not the terrorist federation of the Muscovian empire, into giving up that power. That needn't mean boots on the ground except in technical and advisory roles, but we need very much to increase our pain tolerance and accept that we are worth nothing if we do not stand by our word in defending freedom and democracy. We have one of the largest GDPs in the world, and if 5% of it is the price of keeping freedom anywhere that we have influence, it is a price well worth paying. Yes, that is 5%, or one pound in twenty. It may seem expensive, but the cost of NOT paying it is far, far higher. 🇺🇦Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@mah4705]

To help understand the Russian psyche, look back at history. They were under the "thumb" of the mongols for 200 yrs. and developed a cultural ideology from the events that removed the chains through a strong man leader, and havent evolved since.

[@CarolynAcosta-mw2dl]

Very interesting. I've always wondered why the US will say what it is not going to do--one would think that one would keep it quiet and would let the opponent guess. Thanks for another very interesting interview!

[@user-yq2wk6yg8s]

The idea of announcing, 'no boots on the ground' is to keep the people at home happy. They're understandably averse to seeing their sons getting involved in any more foreign adventures.

[@Dada_ism]

Investment in defence needs to include counterpropaganda

[@gillydior]

🇬🇧❤🇺🇦

[@jimcusack433]

Speaker Mike Johnston may soon be unable to help Putin if another Republican Congress member resigns.

[@WalterBurton]

👍👍👍

[@Dada_ism]

Navalny was so popular because he made sure his messages were presented in a 21st century way, with lots of showmanship. Can't get very far without that nowadays, no matter how great your contributions to your folks. PR is a priority, and today's villains build mainly on that, while the good guys still try with dry facts and reasoning. I'm not saying facts and reasoning is the wrong way. What I'm saying is facts and reasoning need to be combined with showmanship so as to build a much stronger PR. If Zelensky hadn't been a comedian before, not sure he would have made it even past February 2022. If Macron or Scholz were the head of UA, they would have taken that ride instead of asking for ammo. UA knows this, and uses PR wisely - but the civilized world is lagging behind even in that one simple thing (simple in comparison with delivering weapons and ammo)

[@asfafasdad384]

Nice guest two intelligent Gentleman

[@wakabuilder]

Kier does have a clear way of putting forth an argument that makes sence.

[@sebastianthomsen2225]

if ruzzia cant keep the kuznetsov afloat then i dont think they can maintain their nuclear weapons online.

[@LisaNH934]

Like 👍 subscribe ✔️ share ✔️ ...comment 😉 🇺🇦 Thank you Jonathan!

[@philgay3997]

Love your interviews.with all the drone attacks on Russian refinery's, could you interview a refinery engineer on the damage done an the time it takes to repair.

[@Dada_ism]

Better education, better opportunities, better pay, less chances of being lured into signing up with the army and literally kill for money. Poverty is the culprit, exploitable for all sorts of evil, so education is the last thing a dictatorship needs

[@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg]

Hss anyone recently heard any more to confirm or refute the rumoured death of Gerasimov in January? It has all gone quiet. If he has not been seen in public since then (apart from a medal presentation ceremony which could have been archive), he isceither dead or seriously injured and still in treatment. It would be good to know.

[@EU_values]

🇬🇧🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦👍

[@deanejoyce5393]

😁 loved this. .. Speaking to “Why is this so important?”…Take the case that it’s about an essential ingredient to Humanity’s survival. That ingredient essential to our survival is called Freedom… Ideas created Freedom and Freedom itself, acts like an idea factory… The bigger the freedom, the more ideas you get. Ideas create wealth, betterment of humanity, etc, etc… We have big, big problems today and on the horizon like a monkey with a grenade ( Putin) and forget about Putin, really, really big, big problems like extinction events. To solve big, big problems you need “big, big freedom” to come up with the “ big, big ideas” that saves humanity… Freedom is really… really, really… really, really important Putin and Russia are violently suppressing freedom in Ukraine and around the world. Last; Freedom is like a truth. You are either for freedom or you are against it… You cannot be for defense of freedom of one country and not another So when the Donster says he is for Israel’s defense of freedom and against Ukraine’s defense of freedom, he is suppressing freedom, just like Putin suppresses freedom… This is everything America is NOT as Trump et al. ( by his words and actions ) is eroding the very thing that created the idea that produced his own wealth .. FREEDOM… Cheers

[@dennisg8164]

Another excellent conversation Anthony. Notwithstanding the fact Russia is still a country living in the 16th century it has, as does the usa, a significant proportion of an older population that have similar attributes of the trump maggots. Their fairytail viewpoint of Ukraine being historically "Russia" won't be changed easily. I folow Peter Zeihan as well. He came out with the opinion that with Russia modifiing a huge inventory of 1500 lb. dumb bombs to relatively accurate glide bombs at very low cost will be the demise of Ukraine. He has a very interesting position on the demographics of Russia and the main motivation of the Russians to plug the 5 invasion access points in eastern Europe. It's existential to Russia's existence. It would be interesting to hear your and your amazing guests opinion. Maybe a debate

[@RatusPretentious]

Of course, Czar PoopLiar wants it back! Ukraine was the biggest arms manufacturer, apart from Poland, but was a key asset in soviet ship plane & vehicle manufacture & tech design! E en China hired them to fix tech problems!

[@lisbethmllegaard8437]

👏👏👏….

[@RobBCactive]

Keir speaks very clearly but he ignores that democratic leaders have to live within the bounds of political possibility. The overreach in Iraq invasion and subsequent security failure had consequences, specifically Syria. For years the general public collectively shrugged their shoulders at repeated acts of aggression.

[@alex990ism]

russia will only use nukes if the regime is threatened, if the west comunicated clearly its intent to just get russia out of ukraine and not touch the regime while they do this, mainly by letting ukraine do this with modern weapons, i don't think there is a chance for nukes, from my point of view, the only concern of the international comunity regarding russia or any other country for that matter is the uphold of international law

[@sebastianthomsen2225]

SLAVA UKRAYINI !🔱💙💛✌😊

[@davidgleinbach7316]

11:44 NIXON CALLED IT RUZZY SLIDING BACK TO EMPIRE AMBITIONS IN THE END.

[@spacemunky8164]

The azov battalions love this channel!

[@goenzoy712]

How does this go together? Calling a regime fragile and then talking from something going from 2007 to 2024

[@davidwright5094]

Regime hasn't been _static_ over that time period. Degree of fragility can in principle fluctuate, or increase/decrease, over time too. As a metaphor, many human beings who have been going from the 1930s to the 2020s are, today, fragile.

[@SiliconCurtain]

The fragility seems to be accelerating, with major shifts in 2012, 2022 and 2024.

[@mbp1652]

You lie ALOT

[@xtrajently]

The guest has absolutely no basis to claim that some part of Anti Corruption Foundation, clings to some unsavory political views or doesn’t think that killing Ukrainians, isn’t something terrible. In my view, this is pure slander. If someone thinks it’s not, I’d really like to see some evidence of these claims.

[@TomTomicMic]

You do not know that he has absolutely no claim, he didn't present it, but that doesn't mean he hasn't got it, but his Wider point is that Western experts have their own viewpoints, it can be easily worked out who is for Ukraine and who is against it!?!

[@MidnightRambler]

Delusional.

[@johnmuirhead7855]

Sorry I fell asleep LoL

[@davidwright5094]

Never mind. At least you seem to be keeping yourself amused LoL.

[@Raikenbolai]

Honestly who are these guys listening to within russia that isn't saying that NATO is the prime reason for the intervention?

[@phillee2814]

I can't blame you for avoiding the terrorist propaganda channels, but it is true - they have changed their rhetoric from NATO expansion and the rotting West to Ukraine's right to exist as a sovereign state. Dehumanising Ukrainians and describing them as pests or an infection. Pretty disgusting stuff, so as I said, I can't blame you for not listening. Too much of it will rot your brain, so it is best kept for small doses and only when research is needed. The rewriting of history and historical maps is another theme, pretending that they are the old and dominant power, instead of the truth which is that Muscovy was a breakaway city (well more of a village then) from the Kyivan Rus, from which they later (under that Peter who they describe as great but was just as terrible as Ivan or that great German Tzarina of the Muscovite Empire, Catherine) stole the name by which they have been called since. It is actually Ukrainians who are the true Russians and Muscovians who are - well - Muscovians. Not Russians, as they rejected the Kyivan Rus and with it, any valid claim on that identity. I certainly don't blame Ukraine for wanting to have nothing at all to do with them, and changing their name to make the distinction. The Kyivan Rus did stretch from the Black Sea all the way to the Arctic Ocean or White Sea, that contrast being the reason the Black Sea is so named. The extent of the Kyivan Rus is what saved Europe from the Mongolian Hordes, right up until a warlord and self-proclaimed prince of Muscovy (which had already changed its name from one which apparently translates as "Dung heap" in an attempt to become more acceptable and influential) submitted to them instead of Kyiv, adopting their practices and values. We are still living with the result of that stab in the back, which is always the reason for an embrace by Muscovy.

[@Raikenbolai]

The Silicon Projection podcast

[@jessehachey2732]

Cope harder 🙄

[@Raikenbolai]

@@jessehachey2732 lol.....this channel is pure copium. Divorced from almost any reality