Sir Ivan Rogers KCMG. "Brexit. What's Next?" - Full speech.

[@WillemUtUje]

Amazing to see this speech now (early September 2019). How come this man isn't more famous in the UK? His EU's perspective and predictions are spot on.

[@christianfournier6862]

Absolutely stunning! This “Brexit - What next?” lecture of december 2018 at the U* of Liverpool is actually the true unabridged (one hour) presentation of Sir Ivan’s book “9 lessons in Brexit”. A shortened (less than a half hour) “9 lessons in Brexit” version taken from a speech at IIEA on march 2019 is also available on KZbin, but the cuts have made it much less comprehensible. The missing word in both speeches is “Revolution”; although, if one listens carefully ‘between the lines’ to Sir Ivan’s words, one can find several allusions to the similarities of the Brexit process with the French Revolution. This too started with lofty and loosely defined aims, but soon went careening uncontrolled amidst a flurry of violence, devouring its own children and finding itself pitted against the whole of Europe. I do hope that these similarities are only rhetorical, but seeing now (in september 2020) the level of verbal violence attained and drastic decisions taken during the past 21 months, I dread that Sir Roger’s worst fears are becoming reality. - •

[@Plumduff3303]

Our wonderful government has a plan to invest in a shipping company with currently no access to a port and allegedly has no ships or experience other than in the pizza business. With government negotiators this good What could possibly go wrong...oh yeah EVERYTHING

[@tonywellard458]

Someone on a kick back?

[@flitsertheo]

Well, at least Ramsgate Harbour is being dredged now by a competent - Dutch - company before said harbour turns into a beach.

[@BANKO007]

"Schrodinger's Customs Union". Hahaha!! Brilliant!

[@stuartpaul9995]

Yeah, I liked that line too.I also admired the way he causally threw out `plausible bullshit` , without making the least apology for the obscenity. An adult talking to adults. Impressive.

[@nacholibre4516]

🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

[@michaellorke1980]

I like the "right honourable gentlemen for the 18th century" even better....

[@ioanasingureanu]

"serious substance not plausible bulls**t" 😍

[@jrapprentice]

First time I’ve heard anyone talk about a BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) . It’s absence from the debate so far, by people making the decisions, is an indication of their total lack of comprehension of the principles of negotiation.

[@melvinpenman1102]

40 years of lies for the British press and British govt, always blaming the "bogeyman" Europe rather than admit they wrote the rules and supported them. Is not easy to turn around. The UK is set for break-up and economic destruction, third world country is on the horizon. at least they can always blame "johnny foreigner". What an absolute perfect case of suicide.

[@LostSpider]

wow this presentation was give 18 months ago and it was spot on predicting the promises from the conservative candidates to leader of the party

[@fernandom5070]

At last a down to earth person with the correct education and experience to make a proper assessment of the Brexit situation .... British people , please wake up to reality before is too late .... I wish you all the best from Spain in any case .

[@californiadreamin8423]

Brexit Monger Are we leaving ? Watch this space. It's not your fault you've listened all your life to the Daily Mail, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Nigel Farage . Are you listening to what this man is saying ? Think on it.

[@californiadreamin8423]

Brexit Monger Really. Don't be too heartbroken .

[@californiadreamin8423]

Brexit Monger Really !! Don't be too heartbroken , after all it's not your fault.

[@NicholasWarnertheFirst]

@Brexit Monger dream on Monger-features.

[@stephenconway2468]

@Brexit Monger €8 per person in Spain, and you think that is so important? It is the savings by being in the EU. The open access to all of the EU and the 750+ treaties giving excellent access to most of the world (certainly places where the money is). That is worth a heck of a lot more than €8, and the UK only gives a few pence of that.

[@TorianTammas]

Amazing that someone states the obvious and it is a surprise to many.

[@arekkrolak6320]

Am I the only one who waited for him to cover the MR=MC equation? :)

[@patrickvangelder3349]

that was from the previous speech by Rees-Mogg

[@SirRandom]

It's not an equation, it's a leftover from the "gender studies" lecture where MR (Mister) is being replaced by MC (emasculated)

[@jamesatkins1802]

Marginal Cost = Marginal Revenue A subject of interest to business types.

[@weizenobstmusli8232]

We are living in the age of internet fed populism. Its sad, that a bunch of trolls can have such big impact on the future of a whole country. The stage of Brexit negotiations shows clearly the complete incompetence of those who are driving Brexit. I wish you all the best, dear Brits.

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

Populism is what some call any expression of democracy they don't like.

[@GorinRedspear]

@@PaulBeardsell-0 The term is being hollowed out, just like racism. Now, racism is despicable, but not everything being classified as racism is actually racism, and some racist acts are not recognized as such. Same with populism. Populism means appealing to the public against the elite. Nothing wrong with that (unless you're part of the elite). It has gotten linked with making promises to the people regardless of them being possible, even presenting lies as facts. That's where the problem lies with most populist causes. So basically, instead of calling populists, populists, let's just call them politicians...

[@TheJohnsonseviltwin]

@@PaulBeardsell-0 Or, more pertinently, Populism is a misguided movement funded by dark money and probably Russia.

[@stuartpaul9995]

@@GorinRedspear The fundamental problem with populism is that is it simply doesn`t work. Every time it`s been tried in any country its never been anything but a miserable failure.

[@trevordaviesable]

@@PaulBeardsell-0 No it isn't because the ref. was based on lies both visual and verbal. No one in their right mind would vote for that. But they did whist at the same time demonstrating their gross ignorance. Now people are better informed and it is now the Uk should have a second referendum.

[@philipocarroll]

45:30 No country has ever left a trade block before so we can't predict the consequences. Maybe not but we have models to look at and they are all pretty bad. In small scale we can look at Ireland in the 1930s when it started a trade war with Britain in a similar fit of nationalistic pique. The result was generations of stagnation and emigration. On a larger scale we can look to the breakup of the Soviet Union and the catastrophic effects on trade and the successor economies. We can also look at the effect on Yugoslavia, a composite nation rather like the UK. When the economy crashed it precipitated a violent breakup of the state. Now the UK has deeper roots than Yugoslavia did, but 44% of Scots wanted to leave in 2014 when things were not too bad. When the economy tanks, places like Scotland will be hit hardest and the backlash may well translate into independence. Northern Ireland too will crash with the predictable rise of paramilitary structures.

[@stephenconway2468]

To add to your Irish example, you can compare with Denmark. In the 1930's they were about the same size and both right next door to a strong neighbour. Denmark did well....and Ireland had to wait till the late 1950's early 1960's to change it's approach.

[@philipocarroll]

@@stephenconway2468 Funny despite escaping the horrors of World War II, Ireland ended up poorer than Denmark and stayed poor with a falling population until we joined the EU. That's right, our nationalist, protectionist economics were worse than a war. After generations spent as a failed part of the British economy we finally prospered as a successful part of the European one.

[@stephenconway2468]

@@philipocarroll - That's my point too. I know that when I studied this, the protectionism was politically motivated and crippled the economy for many decades. It took people like T. K. Whitaker to convince the politicians to change matters, to create a proper long term strategy and become open. Then afterwards and with the joining the EEC, and later EU, Ireland reversed it's fortunes.

[@aspidistra51]

Great points, Britain is cutting off its legs

[@stephenconway2468]

@@turquoiseowl - To those you have actually grown up in the USSR and left to be now in EU, then can tell you how stupid such an association like that is. Not just insulting, but it just shows your total lack of knowledge.

[@chrismalcomson7640]

Interesting how sir Ivan doesn't advocate not leaving the EU or having another referendum but merely points out the realities of brexit.. All I hear from brexiteers is blind belief in the politicians sorting out the minor difficulties brexit will cause and everything else is project fear. I live in Spain and amazingly many expats I know are almost evangelical in their hatred of the EU.. It doesn't seem to matter they will continue to live in the EU. When I tell them of my concerns they calmly say 'The Spanish have to much to gain from a million plus Brits living here to cause any trouble'.. I have to say I don't share their optimism so I'm getting my Irish passport just in case...

[@Gillemear]

42:15 Isn't that exactly what Johnson and co are proposing right now? (August 2019)

[@koz]

Exactly. To The T.

[@Gillemear]

@@koz It great watching this video from nine months after it was posted. Sir Rogers is as good as Nostradamus

[@hopethisworks1212]

Where were they hiding this chap for the last two years? Why was he not on tv telling people what we could expect by leaving before the vote?

[@BigHenFor]

He was the UK Ambassador to the EU. He noticed how May and her team was screwing up the negotiations. He said so in a detailed memo that was leaked. They shot the messenger, and gave him a choice - be sacked or resign. He resigned, and I don't blame him. He should have been the Prime Minister's chief advisor on this matter but, the febrile atmosphere in Westminster made that impossible. And it's our loss.

[@mweskamppp]

Who wanted to listen to a pesky expert. One of them know nothings.... And we see the crumbling of the UK politicians. The unelected officers are quite ok and should be listened to a bit more.

[@hopethisworks1212]

Good to know that you want to keep out foreigners, but clearly are one........

[@mweskamppp]

@@hopethisworks1212 I am not british thats true. And Mr Rogers is an unelected beaurocrat and an expert. At least we have Mr Juncker who was elected to the EU parliament and then from the parliament elected to be Comission president just as Mrs May in UK. I dont want to keep out brits, i hope they may stay and I hope they wont feel the need to return to UK because they cant pay the health insurance in spain. Who knows what will be paid in future? So much uncertainty.

[@skyblazeeterno]

@@mweskamppp --- yes its weird as generally hate the concept of the House Of Lords...but look at their debates on Brexit...civilised and with facts... thankfully they threw the idea of a no deal exit out the window

[@DonalLeader]

Thank you for this compelling, informed and lucid presentation. As a citizen of the ROI I am increasingly resentful and angry about being potentially the collateral damage resulting from a UK no deal hard Brexit. I hope the principals in this matter are paying attention to the wise and utterly convincing terms of what is laid out here. We are all better together.

[@TheSuperblaw]

@Brexit Monger Dear God, is this how you conduct 'debate'? You barely concealed racism shows your true agenda. It makes me laugh that for the first time ever, the Irish will dictate how it's going to be in the future. Mind you, you now have your 'sovereignty', enjoy!

[@colinfryett8174]

@@TheSuperblaw ROI have only just started to give money to the EU they have had a free ride for years lol

[@tommyroche9142]

@@colinfryett8174 Bullshit.

[@TheSuperblaw]

@Brexit Monger First of all, despite my name I am not Irish! I currently have a British passport. Your initial post reeks of British arrogance and your follow up post simply reinforces that point. As for 'our' tough talk, I think you'll find that all the tough talk has come from the UK. For what it's worth, you are right the ROI WILL suffer, disastrously if a NO deal goes ahead. However, the same applies to countries like The Netherlands. Frankly, (to use your word), it is not the Irish PM who is looking ridiculous, I give you Teresa May instead. She has exacerbated huge and damaging divisions in her own party. She made a disastrous decision to hold an unnecessary general election which far from strengthening her position made her weaker. Now she is totally dependent on the extremists of the DUP. She has lied several times to the British public and every time she opens her mouth the pound sinks. The EU is FAR from perfect, there are some really fundamental problems which need addressed and there is an unwillingness to do so. However, Brexit is a red herring, the basic problem is that Brexit came about because of the genuine and understandable anger of the British people having to endure something called 'austerity'. A simple way to punish ordinary people for the huge errors caused by the banking crisis and the subsequent recession. The harsh reality is that the vast majority of British workers have in effect taken pay cut after pay cut in the last 10 years. You can blame the EU for certain things, but the madness that was the austerity programme was the sole baby of the Tories, under the guidance of Osborne the chancellor. The whole thing was a total failure and a few nasty politicians like Farage, managed to channel this anger into anti-Europe coupled with anti-immigrant feeling, thus was the ground set for the leave movement. Finally, I refer you to Sir Ivan Rogers and the attached video of his speech. He represents everything that makes (or used to make) Britain a formidable country. He speaks in a erudite fashion, backing up his points with calm objectivity. Only an idiot (and I mean this sincerely) could argue with the series of points he makes. It still astonishes me that so many people still don't understand what they have voted for in the UK, as departure day approaches even the densest of voters will realize that they are not going to get what they thought they were going to get. In fact, as Sir Ivan points out, the most 'positive' deal for Britain is much worse than what we currently have. Even with May's best deal scenario, Britain loses big style. I hope that Parliament will chuck out the May deal, call for a general election and suspend the withdrawal until the electorate have a second chance to vote, this time their decision will be both informed and detailed.

[@TheSuperblaw]

@Brexit Monger I do agree with your last statement in that I hope all the worst predictions don't come to pass. However, regardless of your point of view on this issue, all economists (including even the Brexiteer friendly) concur in saying that the UK will lose out, the only question now is the amount it loses and how long the damage lasts. Your notion that Britain is in the process of regaining its sovereignty is deeply touching. The one thing that this whole debacle has revealed is that Britain is NOT sovereign, in fact it hasn't been for some time, this applies to most countries in the world. The idea that as soon as the UK exits (if it actually happens!) a huge new swathe of democracy will sweep the land, is pure fantasy. Britain will be reduced to an insignificant participant in the world economy, too small to influence anybody or anything, with the growing realization that it literally doesn't count anymore . By no longer having a voice where it matters, will come as a sharp blow to those proud British patriots. Do you really think a character like Trump is going to give Britain preferential treatment when it comes to making a new trade deal? I think we already know the answer. And the Chinese? Perhaps the most worrying aspect is that for the many decent, hard working British workers the future is just a tad uncertain. The car plants in Sunderland, Swindon are foreign owned (like many things in the UK) and the owners are simply not going to invest in plants where they have no tariff free access to the EU. The pound will bomb if a no deal goes through and the housing market will implode. Just under three months before the UK officially leaves and yet we still have no actual idea of what is going to happen. Absolutely astonishing, the standard of politicians (of all persuasions) is shocking. From May to Corbyn, they have to be the most inept crew of chancers that have held high office. Their level of understanding and general ignorance is shocking. Then again, you get what you deserve.

[@karlsonkopfspalter3127]

I´m glad that there are some people left in the UK who haven´t lost their minds and understand what is going on. Great analyses of the negotiation. It will be interesting to see how much of their waters the UK will be allowed to fish after they struck a trade deal, although i´m a bit sceptical that the UK gets a trade deal on services. The EU 27 could in an event of "no deal" just cut the UK services sector off, and wait for them to relocate to the continent. But i´m a bit worried about the prospect of 60 million impoverished, angry Brits with nuclear weapons.

[@flitsertheo]

If the British are as competent for handling nuclear weapons as for anything else they will blow themselves up first.

[@markusass]

And so you should be. Economic blockades are an act of war.

[@thankyouforyourcompliance7386]

It is so nice to hear for ages a UK representative saying something intelligent and imformed about Brexit. This speech should be printed out in a major UK newspaper to help Brits getting the idea of what they are doing.

[@redpeony]

No point! If Brexiters could read beyond the five or six slogans that comprise the totality of the Brexit case, that are mindlessly pitted against the wall of solid evidence of the harm that Brexit is doing to Britain, they wouldn’t be Brexiters.

[@leonjfborges]

I am not British, but for all the things that I saw, I think that the speaker touched down on serious points to ponder. I know that some leave voters knew what they were voting for, but there are others that they didn't have a minimum idea of what they were voting for. Some of those who keep on defending Brexit they make the most ridiculous comments. The same happens with the remainers. The bottom line is that at this moment UK is not ready to leave without a deal. Nowadays the strength of a country is dependent of other countries. All is interlinked.

[@Shub99]

He's speaking about Real Politik methodology of establishing inter country relationships .. which is what Brexit was all about and is the only thing once the referendum results were taken as gospel. British politicians and leadership have shown their complete lack of knowledge and understanding of how the world works, how trade negotiations occur, about strategy and anything related to governing. They have shown the acumen of the average citizen on all aspects. The no deal brexit seems the only way out for these moronic politicians to retain some semblance of their ego and bone chilling fear over admitting they were wrong. The long absent empire nonsense will be shown as nonexistent and of no value once no deal brexit is triggered. Experts know their job ...

[@iainmackie7064]

I like this. It gives a view on both sides of the coin. Many advocates of staying or leaving suggest it will be great/disastrous to stay/leave. Clearly they can’t all be correct, although they could all be wrong. I have always believed it was a close run thing either way, not a black and white better/worse decision. Everybody accepts there are benefits from being in the union, and that there are negatives. That must mean the opposite is true, that there are disadvantages to being out and advantages to being out. I don’t remember any side saying life would be perfect either way. So I don’t subscribe to the earth will stop revolving if we leave, or crash out. I suspect in some areas it will be better, and in some it will be worse. But I expect the worse to appear before the better. That’s normally how it works with Change. But I like the way this man explains it. I do sense he comes from a not in favour standpoint, but at least he tries to be neutral and leaves out the hyperbole and exaggeration and sound bites. Although I find it hard to accept his view that WTO Trade doesn’t work. After all, the rest of the world seems to get by on WTO well enough. Perhaps not the best option but surely a credible start point.

[@ronaldderooij1774]

Well, coming from the Netherlands, I hope for your sake you are right. Our analysis here is that the UK committed economic suicide which will last for generations to come. It does not please us here at all, as the UK is our second largest export market after Germany.

[@thankyouforyourcompliance7386]

The Brexiteers already started the "Dolchstosslegende" blame game and it seems to still with simple-minded Brits as it sticked with simple-minded Germans after the WW1. The UK should look at how this ended (leading to WW2) and stay away of this false narrative.

[@sandall7398]

It seems a shame but no Leaver will pay the slighest attention to this. The man is speaking fundamental sense, understands how these things work and has been there and done it. He's therefore an expert. But we've had more than enough of those. We'll let Rees Mogg, or a David Davis tell us. They could certainly never be mistaken for experts, therefore the Leavers will believe every word they say.

[@francoisehembert3243]

Sand all the business community is, well at least large companies

[@Irreverent_B]

The Troglodyte Brexiteer BS sloganeering comments on this video shows exactly why we are in this stupid mess. I doubt the vast majority of them watched the entire video or understood the implications, which are not opinion but fact.

[@aspidistra51]

Matthew, Matthew. this is the internet. No-one listens to a video that contradicts their worldview!

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

Unemployment down, GDP up, deficit lowest for 16 years. Despite Brexit or Because of Brexit?

[@JohnMoseley]

@@PaulBeardsell-0 Companies leaving, pound down. Because of Brexit. And we haven't even left yet. And even the leading Brexiteers have stopped predicting sunny economic uplands. Don't you believe them anymore?

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

@Jan Schlossar - no, unemployment is down since the referendum, look it up. And GDP is up, tax revenue is up, budget deficit lowest for 16 years. Despite Brexit or because of Brexit? You don't want to hear things that challenge your beliefs, but all this is true.

[@Irreverent_B]

@@aspidistra51 Not just the internet, though the shortened attention spans it has lead to may have something to do with it!

[@anonymous.youtuber]

The lesson is clear : our politicians should stop lying and bluffing and start working together instead of creating a mess.

[@anonymous.youtuber]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/opaol6WPltKZZpI Just to demonstrate it’s a more complex situation than you were led to believe. It seems getting in was easier than getting out. So you got a point there. It seems you’ve been misled twice. By your own politicians that is. It’s a sad story and I certainly don’t blame you for anything. Fact is we the people cannot handle the legalese. So what we need is politicians that are trustworthy and willing to take advice from those that can handle the legalese. What we don’t need is politicians that constantly ask themselves how to get more power or how to sabotage their colleagues.

[@anonymous.youtuber]

turquoise owl what makes you think i thought that ?

[@anonymous.youtuber]

turquoise sorry, what I meant was that during the campaign the emphasis was on some fantastic benefits ( like e.g. fresh millions for the NHS each week) which can divert people away from the true complexity. There was too much polarization, ridicule and even hate in the air. In such circumstances one decides based on emotions , not on facts. I don’t blame any voters, I just wish the debate had some serenity. What we see in the media looks like some cheap comedy.

[@stuartpaul9995]

You`re probably right and they probably won`t.

[@Droledope]

Human nature is not going to allow that

[@michaelgodfrey336]

I can't make up my mind about this shit. However it strikes me that Leavers are aching to relieve themselves of EU rules only to be subservient to another set of rules (WTO)

[@norawright807]

And Trump's America. The USA 's food hygiene standards are much lower than the EU's, so low in fact that the EU and the US could be living on 2 different planets.

[@norawright807]

Michael Godfrey, I was addressing you.

[@Tridhos]

The MP for the 18th century, that cracked me up. Now who could he possibly be referring to?

The socialists who reintroduced the child brothels perhaps...

[@XalphYT]

He's talking about Jacob Reece-Mogg, the best prime minister that the UK has never had. Jacob Reece-Mogg leads the European Research Group which advocates for a hard Brexit. Jacob Reece-Mogg is one of those backbench Tories who is furious with Theresa May's deal with the EU.

[@aspidistra51]

@@XalphYT You should watch your hero Rees Mogg making an ass of himself arguing WTO rules, with a WTO expert,"No No, I have article 24 in my pocket..." He is the biggest pseud in English politics. David Cameron returned would make a better prime minister and that is a fucking low bar

[@boptah7489]

@@aspidistra51 Oh really you mean this interview. kzbin.info/www/bejne/j32wm2p9qqySrZY Notice how the 'expert' ends up agreeing with JRM. . this is why we need to leave on WTO terms. because Brexiteers know best.

[@Tridhos]

@@XalphYT A guy who is very good at suggesting others should lead but has shown a severe lack of backbone when asked whether he should do it. Mogg should put up or shut up. However I can well understand why he should be reluctant to take the job as he is kept busy voting for tax havens and cuts in the NHS.

[@janstaes2172]

finaly, was realy looking forward for this. no one in goverment has as much experience with eu dealings as sir Ivan Rogers

[@newcastle106]

This speech was made at the HESELTINE INSTITUTE presumeably named after michael heseltine.When he was business secretary he coaxed ORANGE phone company from germany to a brand new dust free building on the silvertown estate near the tyne tunnel.They took the money but didnt move in we were told at the time they would repay the millions but we dont know if they ever did repay the bribe from the uk .A shipbuilding and fishing port area and coal industry area sadly let down by those in power.yellow hi viz anyone.

[@Dear_Mr._Isaiah_Deringer]

Orange never operated in Germany. I think you mean France?

[@miguelsilva9118]

So.....you don't know if they ever repaid the money, but you go ahead and assume they didn't (otherwise why would you bring up that example?). Is this real life?

[@tonycodolo]

One of the best summations of our situation I have heard so far.

[@dominicfastbender4029]

It was simple. We were told out meant entirely out and that is exactly the question put to the public. There was no conditionality. Leave voter myself but I agree almost everything he said. But I am also focussed on upside and opportunities following Brexit. Perfectly willing to pay a short term price for a more long term gain.

[@miguelsilva9118]

The question put to the public was one and only one: member of the EU, yes or no? The rest was all in your head.

[@ronaldderooij1774]

I think you misunderstood the lecture. There will be no long term gain for the UK. It is impossible. If the UK wants to have a trade deal wit Australia, the EU is more important for Australia than the UK. Australia will impose EU legislation on the UK. If the UK does not want that, fine, no trade with the UK. This is what he is saying. The EU does not even get involved. The best chance the UK has, is in the USA. The USA is notorious for having bad standards on everything and has on the military side screwed the UK over many times. Good luck with them.

[@TarrelScot]

Those who single-mindedly worship at the altars of free trade and globalism forget that those ideas are predicated on the existence of abundant cheap energy that we have enjoyed for the past few decades. That era is rapidly coming to a close, and the future is one of relative energy-scarcity. In this future, localised supply and consumption will be the more logical approach. When precious energy is needed to sustain health-care, civic society and food production, it just won’t make sense to squander it importing goods across the world from the cheapest producer, or shipping cheap labour from the other side of the continent. Brexit may well be the catalyst we need to reset our economy to one of near self-sufficiency, with international trade based on need rather than a race to the bottom of production costs. The sooner we prepare for this future, the easier it will be to transition into it.

[@wthwasthat8884]

Mark Janes self sufficiency? The UK only produces 60% of its food.

[@miguelsilva9118]

Yeah....no. The massification of renewables will make energy cheaper than ever. Add to that the savings that come from having clean sources of energy (think healthcare, environmental cleanup, etc). If you want to think very long term, the inevitable advent of cold fusion (still very much way in the future, but that's why I said "very long term") will make your post seem even more backward and small-minded.

[@redpeony]

DH I agree that Local trade is preferable for environmental reasons. Did you not notice that Europe is closer than America, Africa and the Middle East?

[@stevepetty7009]

Knowledgeable intelligible and sobering... clearly one of Michael Gove's experts?

[@jake4101]

Brexit: Britain's mid-life crisis.

[@redpeony]

This is the first generation to experience extreme ageing. The elderly and the uneducated voted for Brexit. Cognitive decline starts at about age 60. Many of the oligarchs are well over this age. Are there any plans in place for how to deal with the cognitive decline of the oligarchy? This is the beginning. What will happen as it slips further into senile dementia?

[@koz]

Also: Please try and take the time to have a listen to Sir Ivan being questioned by both sides on the matters back in February 2017. VERY little has changed since. : kzbin.info/www/bejne/fp6mdWiIqsiGhLc

[@JonnM]

A true patriot.

[@ReubenAStern]

Why do so many people think that people who voted out, expected life to instantly improve? Most of them were working class, hit hardest by the recession. Over them years, the working class pretty much got used to it. They knew it would get worse before it gets better. Of course we never expected politicians to act so pathetic about it. Right now it looks FUBAR. But going back is not an option.

[@nicholaswoolfenden5254]

Brexitards listen and learn. And cry. A great job, thanks.

[@ioanasingureanu]

@marquis d'abrantes trolling becomes you.

[@johncanning5209]

have you learnt nothing from the last two years, it is this elitist, condescending and even ignorant attitudes to the British people that has caused brexit in the first place

[@brucegoodwin9826]

john canning. Correct, they have not been honest about where they were taking us since 1975. There should have been more honest debate in the last 45 years. The consequences are probably out of our hands now watching the slow motion train wreck in the EU.

[@scruffylee]

you imply by using the construct BREXITARD to persuade yourself and others like you that sub-intellects voted for Brexit ..this is why you and your EU fantasist are dangerous we saw your lot off twice in Europe in the 20th century Soviet socialist and National socialist Nazis) and we will see you off again in the 21st century.. your are a danger

[@californiadreamin8423]

Brexit Monger Me I listened to Jacob Rees-Mogg who earns over £100,000 a year MORE than his MPs salary. I listened to SIR John Redwood who earns £120,000 a year MORE than his MPs salary. I listened less to Boris Johnson because he forgot he'd earned £53,000 or 75% of his MPs salary, until after forgetting 9 times, had to pretend to grovel when he stood up in Parliament to apologise. I listened to Nigel Farage who has about the 3rd lowest attendance in the EU Parliament out of over 700 MEP's , and had his pay docked because he used his staff to work on his 7th attempt to be elected to Westminster. Last but not least to Arron Banks who before too long will be made an offer he can't refuse , along with Nigel Farage , by the National Crime Agency.

[@Kyleinasailing]

It's about time someone professional actually outlined the truth of Brexit. I'm 65 and have worked in Germany for 33 years, my working time is up but the consequences of Brexit for the next generations is going to be fundamental. I want there to another referendum with only those upto the age of 50 to be allowed to vote. It's not about politics its about longterm economic security. If the EU is not perfect, then work from within to change it. They, the EU bureaucrats and institutions cannot all be the despots made out to be, by some, in the UK. We should also not forget that the UK has during its EU membership contributed many laws and regulations. Brexit, is the equivalent of shooting oneself in the foot with the weapon one has helped to create.

[@Centurian-br4cs]

The EU will not change Thatcher found this out as did Cameron and now May they push their ideals ahead of Economic Development. The EU wishes only to create a socialist system of government if the question was only about money known would want to leave but its not more and more legislation stifles small business development this in tun is shrinking the middle class creating a greater divide between the Have and the Have not's that is what divided the country. The EU is utterly corrupt unable to account for 95% of its budget so its accounts have not been signed of in over 10 Years. Having served in the armed forces for 12 years i know the cost of freedom is a price worth paying. Future plans for EU will include Criminalisation of free speech in the form of Hate speech regulation. Eu wish to set Tax levels across states www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-commission-pushes-ahead-with-plan-to-end-unanimity-on-tax-1.3746080 Data protection legislation has already caused many Small/Medium Businesses to go under Article 13 which was introduced under the guise of Copyright protection it is a means to Deplatform decent from the internet. There is much more but these are the key points i have discovered thus far we are Better out even with the short to mid term financial consequences. Freedom isn't Free.

[@Anakinuk007]

It is about politics. The economy is second fiddle, to be a sovereign, free nation. We don’t want freedom of movement, have Westminster reduced to your average local council. We don’t want a federal Europe, we don’t want our army given away to be controlled by the EU. We do want to run our own affairs, and hold our own politicians to account, as well as our own courts. The EU is not Europe, it’s an institution. It’s pretty clear the EU is going to collapse, we are better out now than later. As for only allowing under 50s to vote in a referendum - that’s just nonsense. I respect older voters, they have more life experience and in general are wiser. Many of those have children, grandchildren and would feel they are doing what is best for them. Which is a decision to leave the EU. The UK is one of the oldest democracies in the World, each person has a vote to wield, even the brainwashed, not able to think for themselves youngsters. If anything, the voting age should be restored to at least 21.

Professional...you obviously don't know who that arsehole is. Anyone over the age of fifty shouldn't be allowed to vote....lol you've lived in the fucking Reich too long matey.

[@ralphvandereb66]

agreed max 50 to vote and minimum 40 years because before the age of 40 you know nothing really about how the world works so fair enough you can have your max 50 and balance it with min 40, but you wouldnt agree to that would you, because you want it rigged to satisfy your personal wishes. bleib zu hause in deutschland woe du gehoerts

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

You seem to have missed Rogers - whom you say you respect - saying that one of the impossible things now is to have a referendum with Leave as one of the options. He said precisely that - go back to the video and hear his reasons for so saying.

[@Aquelll]

I own a book by Ari Turunen called "Don't you know who I am? - The history of arrogance". United Kingdom is the only country named in the table of contents. I know you will end up with a humanitarian crisis but I think it is good the UK have to finally learn some humility during the coming years. That is the only reason I see Brexit as a good thing. Failing is a part of learning. I will happily welcome you back into the EU when you have.

[@peterwillig1782]

A brilliant exposition.

[@Plumduff3303]

Given the skill of the government's trade negotiators and the basic premis you need no skills whatsoever to run a multi million pound operation I heareby tender as someone with periodic flatulence and a doctor's note to run the UKs wind turbines.... I have no experience bar the farts but I do have a lap top and a bank account now where's my 14 million quid..?

[@hortenciarodrigues5059]

Excelente!t ! O sr Nigel Farage, à cabeça de todos os outros fundamentalistas como ele, deveria, de vez em quando, ao menos, ter uma atitude menos estúpida e arrogante, dedicando-se a aprender alguma coisa com gente que SABE. BRAVO! Excelente intervenção. Mto Obrigada.

[@nicholaswoolfenden5254]

Truth is referendum result is not actually binding. Unlike a Parliamentary vote, it has no sovereignty as I understand from political science. Let's hope parliament does a good deal for the good of UK businesses, it will have to bear the wrath of the ignorant destructive BRetards.

[@jont39]

It's as legal as the 1975 referendum

[@carlbirchall6869]

If it had been a legally binding referendum it would have been declared null and void due to the breaking of electoral rules. It's only because it was an advisory referendum that it hasn't. It is mad when you think about it, that it's still left unchallenged as it's not legitimate, but the two major political parties are tying themselves in knots over it for fear of an electoral backlash.

[@Tridhos]

@@jont39 The 1975 referendum confirmed the decision taken by Heath the then PM to take the UK into the EEC which was approved by Parliament. Parliament is sovereign and always has been as was recently confirmed by a government white paper. The Cameron government decision to hold a referendum and respect the result was only binding on that Parliament as no Parliament can bind its successor. If you recall May asked for a mandate for Brexit and lost her majority as a result.

[@Carl-im9gh]

@@Tridhos Heath had no business handing sovereignty to foreign powers to be so parliament would never be sovereign again. That was the reason for the 75 referendum. Theresa May did not ask for a mandate for leaving the EU. That mandate was handed to the people by parliament, who voted 6-1 in favour of a referendum. The country voted to leave the EU and now sovereignty has been restored to the people where it once belonged.

[@chadleach6009]

Parliament voted to decide the eu question via referendum, making it binding.

[@didierlemoine6771]

after Brexit, UKexit :))

[@Droledope]

Engexit

[@kimweaver3323]

Scotsit. @@Droledope

[@spankeyfish]

Northern Irexit grows more likely the closer we get to No Deal.

[@Droledope]

That was always the plan, it was never really about the EU

[@reellezahl]

sadly yes. Brexit is (if it happens) the final death blow to the British Empire, the most ironic and stupid end.

[@JesuChristus]

To my fellow Englishmen, please watch it and try and understand for Gods sake!

[@Droledope]

Englishmen-exit

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

He doesn't say anything other than he wouldn't want to be where we are. But we are where we are. And he is not saying Remain is an option - he specifically says it is not.

[@XalphYT]

50:15 I am pro-Brexit, but just listen to this guy throw down.

[@koz]

I won't hold it against you, since none of us truly knew exactly what we were really being asked to vote on back then. :) Currently it's looking like a lose-lose situation, which none of us ever wanted.

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

@@koz - Unemployment down, GDP up, deficit lowest for 16 years. Despite Brexit or Because of Brexit?

[@agn855]

Well, stock piling is also creating revenue. And similar to the time before WWII known as the "roaring twenties" AKA dancing on a volcano made people think/belive everything will running fine. It didn't.

[@johnbrittlebank1450]

On my tenancy agreement it states how many people can live in the house,in a lift a maximum number of persons applies,similarly a vehicle or public hall,this is for safety and comfort,maybe we should paint 70 million in large letters on the white cliffs of Dover.

[@alfonsoponce1]

Thank you. At last an honest man.

[@victormuckleston]

honest / politician = contradiction

[@JordanHammond7]

Excellent and sobering lecture. However in his conclusions I'm confused how he sees the disenfranchisement that a second referendum would cause to a single and aged segment of the population a worse outcome than the damnation of the generations to come who were ineligible to vote. Many times in history bad decisions were undone with a second and more educated vote. Why would this be any different? If people haven't changed their minds, the result will be the same. If they have, then the majority will be relieved to have been given a second chance.

[@koz]

I'd rather 38% of the population (not electorate) got annoyed for a while (until they got distracted by something else on the internet) than destroying the country and its reputation for generations.

[@victoreassis]

It's really naive and utherly stupid to think that UK doesn't have a say when has a seat at the table and will get one when it's out. Very good video, btw.

[@oneobekanobe]

The EU is not perfect but then what is? One thing is for certain, Britain is the ultimate European melting pot and Europe's default international ambassador. With a leading role within the EU, Britain is truly global by influence, wealth and power. Britons need to look their fellow xenophobic brothers and sisters in the eye and ask the question. 'Would Britannia have ruled the waves if Britons were shit scared of Johnny Foreigner?' Freedom of movement of EU citizens in and out of Britain is the best single thing that has ever happened to Britain. It is the people after all, who create wealth and power.

[@xenophon3681]

There's a difference between ruling and being ruled you halfwit.

[@oneobekanobe]

spyros @ @@xenophon3681 Unless you are the Queen, you must be that witless individual who does not realise that they are ruled by a democratically elected Government that you voted for or against in the last election.. But then you wouldn't know that because you think Westminster is in Brussels and the ruling Government is in Berlin and that Merkel is just a puppet who is actually 'ruled' behind the scenes by George Soros and his gang of Bilderberger's, of which the Queen is the chairperson. Did I get it right, O' witless one?

[@xenophon3681]

@@oneobekanobe You were referring to the status of nations, so responding by saying "hurr durr you're ruled by a government" and talking about individual citizens is a pretty pathetic effort at eliding your lack of an actual response. As for your extraneous rambling, it will impress no one with any real intelligence. You can bugger off now, there's a good chap.

[@oneobekanobe]

spyros @ @@xenophon3681 The response I got from you in the first instance, was grounded on xenophobia, Mr Xenophon. And by oozing toffee from your nose does not make you intelligent, nor does it cover up your discriminatory sentiments. And as for my pathetic eliding effort, it clearly hit on a sore point. Oh, and by the way genius, nations are made up of individuals. And if anyone should be buggering off that would be you, after all, it was you who has invaded my space

[@Centurian-br4cs]

You do not do the Layman justice the Brexiteer is not afraid of foreigners but rather the working class of Britain have seen no prospects since the 2008 financial crisis. Europe is the slowest economy in terms of growth because of its protectionism and the importation of people from outside is jurisdiction further hampers economic mobility of the working class. Simply put the Brit regardless of his race is competing with individuals who are prepared and able to work for much smaller wages than them and wages can be kept so low because of the vast pool of people available. 3.5 million migrants have come to the uk of working age since Tony Blair. The question of Immigration is one of job opportunities not xenophobia. The issue with social cohesion due to the large number of persons from the middle east comes into play as statistically they are more inclined to commit crime and far less likely to adhere to British law in favour of there own Religious laws and therefore have no desire to integrate.

[@irishjim2255]

A question from an American. The UK is agreeing to give UE 39 billion lbs. Why? It seams EU must have invested that in the UKand now must be returned. What is the answers?

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

You misunderstand. The rich countries fund the EU and the EU gives that money to the poor countries of the EU.

[@Firefoxfifty]

The country in which I live..Ireland..was a net benefactor of EU structural Funds and Grants during the 80's and 90's. Now we are net contributor to the EU budget so the EU investment in Ireland is now paying off. That's the whole Idea of EU funding is to bring up the poorer parts of the Union up the standards (Health,Education,Employment,Standards of living etc) of of the richer parts so in the end we all benefit.

[@miguelsilva9118]

The 30 billion pounds are for commitments that the UK has already signed and agreed to. It's like you signing a contract to rent an apartment for a year, but then leaving after 6 months. You're still liable for the remaining 6 months' rent, so you either pay them in full or try to reach an agreement with the landlord.

[@irishjim2255]

Miguel Silva Thanks for explanation You mentioned apartment. Is there something concrete that you can point to. Hard to see how England would give money for breaking a lease. To me, the only thing that makes sense is that th EU must have invested money in England and now demanding return of those funds. Don't think I don't appreciate your respons. I'm an American. Just curious. So much talk about funds but no goverment accounting. I did hear Farage says England may not have to pay.

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

@@miguelsilva9118 - in some minor way that is partly true. But a so-called Hard Brexit is much cheaper and does save £39bn. I think you saying you must pay what you owe is true - it's always true - but it doesn't answer the question posed.

[@SnazzBot]

This reminds me of the court case at the end of Chernobyl.

[@MichaelFlynn0]

"It will be a shit-show" - Lord BucketHead.

[@getmartincarter]

The extent of Minford’s knowledge is set out in his book and his evidence before the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee - have you read his book ? It’s in its second edition and addresses the Counter arguments

[@miguelsilva9118]

It was certainly set out, all right. That's why everyone sees him for what he is - a fraud. And an ignorant fraud at that. No relevant economist agrees with his views. And you'd be relevant to find an irrelevant economist that does.

[@IslandForestPlains]

Brilliant.

[@miraculixxs]

From my POV the UK made the same mistake as the Swiss gov't. Which is to let the EU believe that no deal is not an option. The UK should have started first and foremost trade deal negotiations with non EU countries, namly USA, China, India, possibly Russia, and dare I say Switzerland, all while leaving the EU countries in the unknown. That would have sent a different message and would have given the UK much more leverage.

[@miguelsilva9118]

"The UK should have started first and foremost trade deal negotiations with non EU countries, namly USA, China, India, possibly Russia, and dare I say Switzerland, all while leaving the EU countries in the unknown." You mean commit illegalities? Sure, that's a great way to start negotiations.

[@miraculixxs]

@@miguelsilva9118surely it is not illegal to negotiate trade deals once article 50 has been invoked.

[@miguelsilva9118]

@@miraculixxs Actually it is, because the UK is still in the EU, and EU countries cannot negotiate their individual trade deals. And there's a very good reason for that: when any good enters any EU country, it is in fact entering ALL EU countries (due to freedom of movement), so one country's shitty trade deal could wreak havoc in 27 other countries. So, it is indeed illegal to negotiate trade deals once Article 50 has been invoked. Only after you actually leave the EU can you do that.

[@miraculixxs]

That should have been contested. The path chosen has been the wrong strategy entirely as is evident to everybody now.

[@ronaldderooij1774]

@@miraculixxs It cannot be contested. The UK is not allowed trade deals before Brexit is done for reasons mentioned by Miguel Silva. Nobody in the UK government is even contemplating it, as they see the logic. Besides that, most of the countries the UK will want to trade a deal with, will demand EU standards, as their production will predominantly go to the EU. The UK is too small for different standards. So you won't gain anything from it, I am afraid.

[@Stafford674]

Maybe the problem lies in his manner of presentation but he really doesn't sound like someone who has spent his professional life representing UK at the EU. He sounds more like an EU representative to Great Britain. Can anyone identify for me a point at which he expresses a greater loyalty to his country than to the wishes and needs of the EU?

[@stuartpaul9995]

This man puts the meat on the bones of what I`ve been thinking. I echo him, or maybe he echoes me, who knows. But i`d extrapolate a little further - There are simply too many Brexit straws, they will break the back of the British economic camel. Britain is over. No future. Vote with your feet. And quickly, the clock is ticking.

[@danielwebb8402]

Wow. A civil servant type doesn't agree with brexit and thinks those that do were / are stupid. In other news, rain is wet. If a builder from Mansfield on 30k a year watches this, will they feel talked down to and condescended? Yes

[@totokfr]

Tell your builder to listen to Fintan O'Toole ' s wonderful discussion at kzbin.info/www/bejne/gKencopriM-Xl6c He's coming from an Irish viewpoint but mostly discusses Brexit for the UK . And he definately doesn't talk down to anyone . His friendly irish manner is a joy to watch and what he says comes as a breath of fresh good sense completely devoid of any politicians ducking and diving in these times of bull sh*t and slogan calling .

[@californiadreamin8423]

Brexit Monger How do you know what people who voted to leave, are thinking ? Who is deluding who ?

[@ib1378]

@Brexit Monger truth hard to take?

[@johnconlon2207]

Another real expert. But the U.K. had too many experts so no need to listen to him then!

[@Plumduff3303]

Brilliant

[@harold4506]

He's wrong about other members wanting to pool their sovereignty. They are against any further integration, in increasing numbers.

[@JohnDoe-kv3cm]

For being against it we see surprisingly few exits beyond brexit....

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

No one allows any other country a referendum on leaving.

[@reellezahl]

You mean this? twitter.com/neweuropeans/status/861651860196913153

[@spartafly3014]

Brexit = Facts vs Feelings. When you ask what leaving the EU will entail you get a reply full of facts. On the other hand if you ask what benefits leaving the EU has, you get "we are better on our own", "Britain has been through worse" (sic) and "we don't know how it will turn out, but if we are positive and believe in it then it will end up well". If you strip away the lies about WTO rules and structure of international trade in relation to the UK economy all that remains for leave is.... Feelings

[@nuttall47]

There is no going back, the only choice is to leave completely, Mays deal would be a disaster.

[@koz]

The choice that is in our nation's BEST interest is to stay right where we are and call off the whole foul-played, false claimed, illegitimate process. Anyone who thinks that ANY deal or Brexit won't leave the country worse off for generations really hasn't done enough research on the matter or are simply blinded by their own racism and so-called National pride. Grow up.

[@arkatub]

@@koz I'm a minority and I think Brexit is the right choice, do you think I'm racist?

[@koz]

@@arkatub Not at all. What a strange thing to say. Where did you get that idea? (Oh, I now see the moronic comment above..). But I am interested to know how you think you'll be better off outside the EU than where we are now, to make you decide to leave though. Was it an emotional choice based on feelings whipped up by media, or one based on a pragmatic dissection of the facts available to us at the time. This is a serious question by the way. I am fascinated to try and understand why those who voted to leave did so.

[@arkatub]

@@koz the thing that pushed me over the edge was what happened in Greece. Also I think the euro is inherently unstable, I think it would only take 1 country to exit the euro to start the ball rolling on it's disintegration. The Greek issue and the euro are kinda linked. (I'm Malaysian btw)

[@koz]

@@arkatub Thanks. But what part of "what happened in Greece" made you think that the people of the UK would be better off by leaving? ( Did/could you vote, btw? ) Also, the UK is not in the Eurozone, so we already have 'control over our money', in that sense. Surely? We've been very lucky to have avoided having the Euro, I agree. Though looking at the currency prices these days, we've practically joined it anyway, since the prices are now so close to parity. ;)

[@philhaji-michael8471]

Excellent analysis of the problems we face in leaving. The truth of it as usual generating the expected ball of spite from Brexiteers whose unicorn has just died!

[@davidclark1952]

Trouble. With this bloke he only see things from one side but there is always two sides .. we went out and now

[@cristinapita7955]

david clark what side is that? He was a brilliant civil servant (with vast experience in the EU). He is putting it to the British as it is... what do you expect?! That it will all be easy?

[@everready2903]

Great video, thanks!

[@colinfryett8174]

10 billion of the net savings if we leave the EU, multiply those by 14 up till 2030 then use the economic credit multiplier because you have the benefit of spending that 10 billion and taxes raised on it with some economic growth and so on, do you know the figure I come up with is £1.5 trillion and by leaving the EU we will be able to fund and repay the national debt by the time 2030 arrives.

[@SchnuckySchuster]

The parallels to pre WW I times are striking. No deal brexit will be Leman Brothers on steroids.

[@claudiavivarelli7571]

Sir Ivan Rogers is the classic civil servant who sides with his bureaucratic friends in The EU and speaks for the banks and corporations.. he seems to forget that there is a large number of people who have only lost in the last thirty years.. since the Maastricht Treaty... the big mistake was we were never asked then if we wanted to stay members of a club that have no interest in the individual or running things democratically.. he himself has benefited enormously and can’t understand why we are all not happy for him.. the way he describes the EU one would believe it is a winners club.. instead keep an eye out for Salvini, the yellow jackets and Victor Orban.. it’s just the beginning.. the Brexiteers are not alone.. like the British Empire the EU’s days of glory are over... buy your German cars now.. because soon they will be unaffordable.. and Sir Ivan I don’t think you can see the wood for the paper...

[@totokfr]

People who buy Mercedes will buy one even if the price rises a bit ( Mercedes will absorb much of the increase ) . People who buy Nissans on the other hand ....... ? 80% of the cars made in Sunderland are Left hand drive . Nissan will just move to the European mainland . I can't see Mercedes moving to the UK any time soon .

[@claudiavivarelli7571]

tony King you have forgotten that the pound has devalued and will devalue even more making the price of Nissan much more affordable for the Europeans ... The people who buy Mercedes, BMW, Audi are the bankers certainly not a farmer from Lancashire... any car manufactured in the U.K. if subjected to tariff will absorb it with the devaluation of the pound.. on the other hand German cars with the devaluation of the pound plus the extra tariffs will cost the double..

[@ulrichknille398]

The people in Sunderland will experiment a very sad result of their vote to LEAVE; when Nissan decides to move their production from England to the continent. Maybe the factory can then serve to store medicine and food supplies when the buildings will no longer be used to produce cars. I can also imagine the Mini being produced in Germany as might be the wings for the Airbus planes. Then all LEAVE voters may address BoJo ode Rees-Mogg or - bigmouth Farage and ask them whether they have any jobs for them.

[@claudiavivarelli7571]

Ulrich Knille yes, it may be tough in the beginning.. changes always are.. but in the long run Britain has made the right decision,,, what is hurting Britain now is the uncertainty that this limbo of let’s have another referendum is creating... see Guardian article on Toyota invests 240 million pounds into Derbyshire plant...

[@TorianTammas]

@@claudiavivarelli7571 This assumption of yours is based on a study or a gut feeling. In case it is a study please share it. How many years are in the long run? May be 50 years? What do people do like the 2 million with zero hour jobs or even poorer people who are badly hurt by anything they lose as they need the little they have. If it is a gut feeling thanks for your personal opinion.

[@tomlakoma278]

British won't live EU. They have puped already. They thought they can eat cake and have a cake. You were wrong

[@jonathanaldridge4114]

Its our country not the Eus we can have our cake and eat it we do it every day.

[@koz]

btw: If anyone is interested and has a couple of hours to spare. Have a listen to the questions and legal answers and opinions being given here, from just before Christmas : kzbin.info/www/bejne/oXKooYZoqMiGaMU

[@vavaleo8316]

Forget about Pragmatism, it is forsaken in this lands!

[@ralfrath699]

After the Brexit next is the Re-Brexit - what else? The British ridiculous Brexit-show must go on! What else? ✌✌✌👌

[@henriikkak2091]

Disintegration of the United Kingdom is what's next. Once the penny drops that Brexit wasn't the answer after all, the underlying causes that are driving English nationalism will lead the UK to the next crisis. Only this time the UK is far less stable to begin with, so it's impossible to predict how that will go down. Europe has a nasty track record on populist nationalism. There are some uncomfortably familiar elements of history repeating itself. Scapegoating and war rhetoric -- check. Isolation and deterioration of diplomatic relations -- check. Unelected populist leader emerges -- check. The parliament's hands are tied at a crucial hour -- check. Violation of international treaties -- check in case of Brexit without the withdrawal agreement and the backstop. The Scots may up and leave first, joining the EU again. The Irish border issue will be left for the international community to solve. UK doesn't want Northern Ireland (supermajority of conservative Leave voters don't mind violating the Good Friday Agreement or even the Union in order to achieve Brexit). While the prospect of uniting Ireland is tempting, Republic of Ireland doesn't really want Northern Ireland either. Unlike Scotland, which has a good chance of becoming a stable Northern European country, Northern Ireland is too weak to go it alone.

[@josephmaxwell5033]

In all seriousness this gentleman has nailed it and honestly portrayed that; The one will never beat a block of 27 Too many mistakes have already been made, negating the whole negotiations and apparent the futility of carrying on with them. So what is the solution or what is the best that we can now do to achieve stability. Reluctantly, the only reasonable conclusion to be derived from this very informative and apparently accurate submission, is to remain in the EU. Fortunately, we currently remain a senior member of that Union. The caveat that I must add, because I despise this autocratic regime. In conclusion: A dire resistance from a Churchillian Bulldog would be better released from within the EU than from out with the security of that union. Make them rue the day, that they ever beat us to the European Punch, Resist and Change from within, but only if we still have a Vito? Labour, if they are smart, could do very well in flipping from their current stance to becoming that Churchillian Bulldog. After all, Corbyn hates the EU. 😂😂😂😎 The Tory Government with its perfected lack of transparency, lies and dammed lies, will never be trusted again. Or at least not until this national humiliation and climb down is forgotten. We have got to continue to fight them, The Bruce Way!😂😂😂😇😎

[@louisbanaszak3125]

we will vote you out all partys

[@xenophon3681]

If the EU wants to play tough and hurt us in a way that "no developed country has experience in generations", as he says, maybe we'll leverage our power against them with equal viciousness. How do you think the EU would like it if we offered the Russians the opportunity to establish naval bases in Britain? Or the Chinese? If the EU wants to treat us as an enemy, we can treat them as one too. The Americans would be on the phone ordering the EU to give the UK a generous free trade deal instantly.

[@pitpossum2]

Oh sure, let the russians have naval bases on your territory. You might want to leave the NATO pact before that. You would even do the russians a favour, since they can stop their clumsy attempts at concealing their assassinations of russian dissidents on british soil... Unbelievable...

[@xenophon3681]

@@pitpossum2 I love how remain shills squeal "there's nothing we can do, we have no leverage!!!" and then when someone cites some form of leverage they shriek "that's wrong! that's immoral!". And yeah, we might threaten to leave NATO too.

[@baukebaljeu8636]

You sound a little confused, young fellow. The UK is leaving the EU, not NATO.

[@pitpossum2]

@@baukebaljeu8636 Well, I think Xenophon's strategy makes perfect sense. It's like trying to achieve a business deal by threatening your potential business partner with you personally putting a fork in a light socket unless he complies. 😉

[@xenophon3681]

@@baukebaljeu8636 You seem not to have basic reading comprehension, I said that we might threaten to leave NATO as part of our negotiating strategy in order to leverage America to pressure the EU into giving us a better deal, not that we are planning to leave NATO currently. Try not being condescending when you can't even understand a basic argument.

[@kyaume21]

MR=MC ?

[@amayastrata4629]

Marginal revenue, marginal cost. Economics

[@HondoTrailside]

I'm pro Brexit, but unfortunately I don't believe it is going well, and I think it will get a lot worse. And the reason is that while there was a democratic majority for it, it was only by the slightest margin. That makes the vote democratic under the agreed terms, but the outcome politically disastrous. My Brexit involved the recognition that there would be sacrifice. I also think that the collapse of the EU is close enough on hand, maybe, that it might have been better to just let the EU broader membership lead the way to the exit. If what one is willing to settle for is highly integrated trade and political institutions, which is what I hear post-Brexit, the EU is your best bet. Also not discussed is that even if the UK fulfills the promise of the vote by leaving, then I assume parliament will re-assert itself and many of those remainers within it will simply campaign for more integration in the EU. This thing never ends, and once we leave, mission accomplished, the UK parliament will be betraying nobody by returning to business as usual which will inevitably be more of the same with the EU. My only quibble with Sir Ivan's vision is that his King Lear quote applies just as much to the many people who are left out of the competitive Britain project he has lead all his life. A Britain that exists as a magnet from London for capital and brains is simply writing much of the country out of the story, for ever. Here in Canada we have immigrants from many places many come under a merit provision. I have heard data in one instance, and the average immigrant from one country has an IQ of 120, vs those he left behind who have an average IQ of 80. I would guess Canada is around 90. This creates distortions in both countries. It is a way to become a world leader in knowledge industries, and to create permanent underclasses. If the UK stays in the EU the political problem will just get worse.

[@austenj4539]

I'm glad that I live in a country capable of actually leaving the EU. Whereas, pretty much all other Member States are clearly locked inside a moving vehicle.

[@koz]

That thing called the mainland continent, you mean? ;)

[@austenj4539]

@@koz Well, if you [or anyone else] can put forward the chances for countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, Malta, Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, etc could leave the EU with their dependence on the Single Market/Customs Union, then I'm listening.

[@wthwasthat8884]

Austen J the irony of your comment is quite galling. And the worst part is your complete lack of self awareness while posting it.

[@miguelsilva9118]

@@austenj4539 Why would they do so? It's in their interest to work together, a concept which is clearly lost on vast swathes of the British public, so accustomed to the classic "me me me" Anglo-Saxon attitude.

[@totokfr]

Very good metaphor Austen , the moving vehicle . Yes indeed - a luxury coach bowling down the motorway at a right old crack . And the Brits are going to bail out and pile into a clapped out 1970's Mini and try and keep up . Good luck with that Austen .

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

What many commenting here seem to choose wilfully to ignore is that Rogers makes plain there is no room for a 2nd referendum where one of the options is Remain. That Rogers seems(!) to demonstrate that no way forward is a good way forward and endorses nothing else other than better handled negotiations with the EU looks like little more than a job application to me. Rogers has been negative from the start.

[@totokfr]

Its true what some commenters say . This guys tone is a bit offputting . For a much friendlier discussion on Brexit , from an Irishman journalist ( tho he doesn't just focus on the Irish side of it ) , check out Fintan O'Toole at kzbin.info/www/bejne/gKencopriM-Xl6c No hectoring ; No talking down just a clear exposé of some of the complex issues surrounding Brexit and also some surprising facts that I didn't know like - did you know that Nissan Sunderland takes delivery of 3 MILLION parts a DAY .... yes a DAY from all over Europe . Check it out . Well worth a listen whichever side your on .

[@MintiePro]

Listening to this twice... he doesn't actually make any points... just slogans and slurs... from a bias view of the decision. He's not making any points that actually address the given title, and nothing new here. The point is to be more self sufficient, than relying on the inevitably doomed EU. 'Give it 2 more years' - ye, the EU probably won't exist in 2 years.

[@koz]

Making 'any points' isn't/wasn't his job. He's simply explaining the reality of the situation when it comes to the EU, from his deep, 'embedded', professional and personal experience.

[@koz]

Regarding the title, I agree. But it's not about him saying what we should do next, it's more about "here were are now" and "here's the options and the likely processes and outcomes we'll need to look hard at".

[@MintiePro]

I do understand, but the lack of respect he expresses towards Brexiteers only infuriates. I have considered the consequences, and can accept the responsibility for arguing the case for Brexit, of which beliefs in the principle of it have not and never will change. A re-vote would likely end up in a similar result, and for someone with his experiences as you suggest, should certainly making a speech look into the positives and opportunities that can be made for Brexit, and in building and working towards a better and more fair relationship with the EU or individual nation states into the future, would certainly be a more 'professional' outlook on topic.

[@Itchyback]

UK having constitutional crisis? Let me laugh... Oh, you're serious, let me laugh even harder... Somebody link me to UK constitution.

[@andrewgoodbody2121]

Are you being facetious or genuinely ignorant of international law terminology?

[@Itchyback]

@@andrewgoodbody2121 UK doesn't have a codified constitution.

[@dangermouse9348]

@@Itchyback No, it has an unwritten constitution based on over 800 years of laws and rights starting with Magna Carta. A legal system that has provided the blueprint for virtually every democratic nation that exists today. But hey let's just ignore that and hand over legislative power to a bunch of eurocrats that we have very little real power over. A bunch of people who are elected through European elections that hardly any people bother to vote for. Simple fact, ever since the elections for MEPs started the number of people who actually vote has fallen since the elections started, and hasn't passed the 50% mark in decades Let's give power to people like Junker who earn a fortune and hide their earnings in tax havens. People like Junker who say things like “Of course there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?,” and "We decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back." In other words scum who only care that their vision is fulfilled regardless of public opinion. If that's what you want then there are 27 other countries out there where you can choose to live. At least for now. I'd hurry though, because I suspect in a few years there will be a lot less than that.

[@Itchyback]

@@dangermouse9348 You idiot, Look at your legislation. Is there something EU ordered you to put there? Your legislation is UK made, so shut the fuck up about being governed by EU. And see, UK is independent, sovereign and governs itself. You're leaving EU and EU is not trying to stop you. Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

[@reellezahl]

@@Itchybackand the irony is: we ‘wrote’ the door. Much of EU laws and regulations were designed by Britain!!

Apart from the fact the UK exports more to China than the EU. We are a net contributor of the EU, so literally get less than nothing out of our membership, any benefits gained are negated by its horrendous ever growing expense. The British were under no delusion that it was going to be easy to untangle the mess, but very complicated with a few negative consequences. however there are far more benefits to leaving than remaining. They didn't prepare anything for a leave result because Cameron the king of election fraud stacked the odds massively in favour of a remain result. He was forced to resign because the police were about to press charges for over 40 cases of fraud, the Remain campaign were found guilty of election fraud. It's why May was forced to hold a GE rerun, nothing to do with Brexit. We do not trust any of the Remoaner MP's and certainly nothing spewed by the EU's unelected despots to be telling the truth. How can we trust people who slandered Leave campaigners as racists for wanting out of a failed political experiment being governed by a bunch of unelected despots? We blame the liars, schemers and criminals within our own corrupt parliament, and they will get their comeuppance. If they think we will be satisfied with leaving the EU for draining the swamp to skewer the bog monsters. Battle number two is ousting our own bog monsters from parliament. The tolerance lollipop has fully run out, there is a civil war on the cards if they fail to comply. The EU and the Euro are collapsing in front of our eyes, so what's so wonderful about it? May was supposed to be negotiating terms of leaving, not keeping us in as a voiceless satrap cash cow who has to beg the EU's unelected despots permission to leave, on the off chance they can negotiated a post Brexit trade deal. There is no guarantee that will happen. Leaving under the WTO has been fully prepared for by our Civil Service, it's their job to ensure this so claimed Remoaner cliff edge, does not take place. The EU member states can no more afford to lose customers than anyone else can, so all this fear mongering about shortages, is utter BS. We trust our own knowledge of the EU, they cannot account for their use of our money = illegal criminal racket. not the opinions of butt hurt bad losers.

[@r5u26d3]

He’s gone native, an appeaser, pretends to support the Uk, but his real loyalty is to the EU. Clever person who can understand the complexity of the EU because he is clever. Ordinary people don’t like the EU because it is too complicated . And they don’t like highly paid cleverdicks like this gentleman making it more complicated. Leave this club and start again. Why not make NATO into a great trading bloc for instance? We need to move on.

[@miguelsilva9118]

I know. Stupid clever people with their cleverness and knowledge and experience. I bet that when you get ill you go see your local pub drunk. He's a real man of the people, he'll know what to do.

[@miguelsilva9118]

@@turquoiseowl I have quite a few doctors in the family, and know a few more through them, and none of them are drinkers. Must be a UK thing. Good luck with your health, though. With practices like that, you're going to need it.

[@miguelsilva9118]

@@turquoiseowl Like I said: must be a UK think. Not really a problem over here.

[@MeStevely]

Still can’t tie a knot then.

[@MrDaleplan]

Where is the love

[@adamabele785]

I hope he does not get convicted for fearmongering

[@koz]

Telling someone that bad things will definitely happen as they continue to run towards a cliff edge is not fear-mongering. It's fact.

[@adamabele785]

@@koz Who wants to hear facts if it makes one feel uncomfortable? Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies! People believe in lies, if it makes them feel good. On Brexit day everything gets solved by witchcraft over night. I mean you are standing at the edge of the cliff and take a big leap in the faith of politicians to fix it in the minute between leaping and hitting the ground. This is not talking facts, this is talking religion. In order to escape your fate, you should not change direction, you need to run faster is what Brexeteers keep telling. What I say: In order to know what Brexit means, we need to wait only 3 months. I´d like to know what happens when shit hits the fan. Does it turn into gold and you get a shower of money pouring down on you, or does it remain shit and people might experience they´ve been shited on by the politicians just once more, but this time with a serious long time effect, that can not be washed away by an election. I´m afraid it´s the latter. As Brexit is a religion and a talk about feelings, I can smell the odor of Brexit three months ahead and I can see no traces of golden glitters for now.

[@josepholeary3286]

This is authoritative, and makes it clear, I think, that a second referendum is now inevitable.

[@philipocarroll]

I don't think so. I can't see it the Commons voting for that. I think the two options left are a pointless Brexit via May's deal or an economically catastrophic Brexit via no-deal. Extending article 50 is only possible with the agreement of 27 other countries. Rescinding article 50 is illegal in the absence of a decision to remain in the EU

[@PaulBeardsell-0]

Note the person you admire, Rogers, said such a referendum was impossible - or at least one with a Remain option. Go back and look again.

[@richyrichmountain]

This guys entry on Wikipedia reads like a whose who of the Bilderberg Group and the New World Order. Not sure, but I think he might be a vested interest!

[@koz]

I think the more logical phrase you're looking for is: "first-hand professional experience". Unlike many people in government today.

[@richyrichmountain]

koz thank you, I was happy with the words I chose, but okay, let’s take your “first-hand professional experience”, and add my “the Bilderberg Group”. I also propose we add the words “in carrying out the agenda of” between the two.

[@koz]

Ahhh Bilderberg. ;) The only conspiracy theory here that I can see, is Brexit itself.

[@richyrichmountain]

koz sorry you will have to elaborate. You’re not making sense. Why are you talking about conspiracy theories? Are you drunk?

[@getmartincarter]

He hasn’t read or ignores the case for not having any trade deals with anyone including the EU

[@miguelsilva9118]

That's because it's a ridiculous proposition. Why waste time on it? Go back to the 10th century.

[@bupe007]

In finance the Chinese are the big players. Europe included UK is just looking at the international economy. The whole Idea of EEUU is based on a will to make Europe great, BUT we Europeans neither achieve to bring Greece or Portugal or Italy any further, so the whole idea is dead. Brexit is a good chance at least for Britian to get out of this shit and to follow the market of the world, which Great Britain ever had. Good luck Britain! People buy in Primark: Made in Pakistan, made in Bangladesh, made in India made in China and Vietnam...all the asian countries, so what?

[@larslarsen5414]

Maybe Western democracies should learn from Singapore. Forget democracy and instead have some experts to run the shop...

[@miguelsilva9118]

Yes, I hear slave labour and draconian laws are wonderful this time of year.

[@andyinsuffolk]

Interesting. My main take from this is the ineptitude of Westminster. You cannot blame a 'former representative to the EU' seeing things from an EU viewpoint but I believe currently 56% of our exports do not go to EU states, so the EU being our biggest export market is dependent on the form of words used. If you accept that the EU is a trading partner in itself then it's worth remembering that we buy more than we sell to them. The evidence that membership of the EU is an advantage to our predominantly service based economy is not very clear either - much of the commentary on this concludes that there is no single market in services. Sir Ivan errs on the side of doom mongering but remember that just 8% of our companies and 12% of our GDP are involved with EU exports - the vast majority of what goes on in the UK has no direct involvement with EU commerce even though they must obey the rules set by the EU.

[@TorianTammas]

Andrew Sainsbury - The largest UK export market are the EU27. The UK exports 48% of goods into the EU and up to 3 million jobs depend on these exports. The EU exports about 8% into the UK. The UK depends on imports for the car industry on the EU. Most cars assembled in the UK have 60% parts from the EU27. Nissan alone needs 2 million parts every day. They have to be delivered just in time and keep the costs in check. The representatives of the car industry said that frictionless trade works only within the EU single market and customs union. They are only in the UK as it is one of the most neoliberal countries in the EU. So they have to downsize after Brexit and no production lines will be opened at other places. The representatives are liable to be sued so they they to keep their investors informed about the risks to their operation. Only politicians can fabulate without consequences for them.

[@TorianTammas]

@@turquoiseowl Car manufacturing plays an important role in the UK economy. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT), the automotive industry accounts for 4 percent of GDP, totalling £60.5 billion, and represents 12 percent of total UK exports. The industry also contributes significantly to UK employment volumes. Around 169,000 people are employed directly in manufacturing, and a total of 814,000 people are employed across the wider automotive industry. 70% of fish caught by British boats us sold to the EU27. The Japanese provide 144.000 jobs in the UK. The car industry

[@nigelmarsh8023]

If sir Ivan and is business friends,got their way and we stayed in the EU and the UK were billions better of.Do you think that they will be willing to share 50% with the ordinary people of the uk say a few hundred pounds each family at Christmas .it would only be fair wouldn’t it,or am I being greedy.

[@miguelsilva9118]

I don't know if you're being greedy, but you are certainly being incoherent. Couldn't understand a single sentence of that disjointed post.

[@nigelmarsh8023]

@@miguelsilva9118 .Yes your right,I could have put it better..

[@xtusvincit5230]

Without the UK, there will be no EU. All points moot.

[@SpirosPagiatakis]

Nah... Without the UK, EU will transform to EU++. Nothing negative in loosing a member that is always bickering, always had one foot out of the door, filled with delusions of grandeur from a long gone past empire and a big chunk of the population poisoned by a press not worthy to be used as a bog roll. It would be funny, if not for the suffering of english people who are not idiots, down the line Scotland left the UK, NI reunites with the Republic and both joined the EU. Maybe that is the EU plan after all... makes you wonder doesn't it? Then it would be without the EU, there will be no UK. You can laugh, but your hypothetical is as valid as mine. Imagine your face when you rejoin under the EURO.