Smart Money vs. Dumb Money in Election 2024 ft. Cem Karsan

[@RealVisionFinance]

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw 00:10 - Introduction and Market Overview with Cem Karsan 00:43 - Positioning and Seasonality Impact on Markets 01:19 - The Role of Flows and Positive Market Forces 02:23 - High Skew in the S&P and its Impact on Market Positioning 03:55 - The Delta and Premium Impact on Buybacks 04:49 - Simplifying Options Market Concepts for New Investors 06:14 - The Need for Downside Risk Hedging 07:49 - Dealer Positioning and Yield Extraction 08:50 - Understanding Delta and Gamma Impact on Markets 09:50 - Impact of the November Election on Markets 11:45 - Coin Toss Nature of the Presidential Election 12:51 - Higher Probability of Trump Sweeping vs. Kamala’s Limited Mandate 13:54 - Implications of Trump Victory on Labor Inflation and Tariffs 15:55 - Structural Effects and Reflexivity in the Market 17:23 - The Potential for Random Factors Affecting the Election 18:20 - Delta and Volatility Support in the Short Term 19:14 - Historical Election Data and Annualized Returns 20:21 - Positive Flows and Reinvestment Effects 21:44 - The Collateral Effect on Markets and Leverage 23:15 - Impact of Structured Product Positioning on Markets 24:37 - The Cascade Effect of Positive Flows and Reinvestment 25:37 - Understanding Skew and its Market Implications 27:16 - The Impact of High Skew on Market Movements 28:42 - Positive Flows and Rebalancing Effects 29:48 - How to Position with Options for Low-Risk Upside Bets 31:59 - Risks in Beta and Stock Market Positioning 33:00 - Managing Risk with Options in a High-Inflation Environment 34:40 - The Reflexive Nature of Stock Market Valuations 36:03 - Understanding the Altitude Metaphor for Market Valuations 38:01 - The February and March Opex and the COVID Crash 39:29 - Lessons from the Tech Bubble and the Importance of Timing 41:53 - Blowoff Tops and Market Dynamics 43:47 - Understanding Volatility Compression and its Impact on Market Moves 45:23 - Using Cheap Calls to Bet on Potential Market Upside 46:54 - Key Takeaways from the Risk Management Conference 48:29 - Growth of Structured Products and ETF Issuances 50:02 - Zero DTE Trading and its Impact on Market Volatility 52:28 - Cem Karsan’s Key Takeaways and Asymmetric Trades

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Thanks for joining us, Cem. Very valuable insights, as usual.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Always welcome

[@davidconstantinfit]

Can you cut the woman out? That laugh on every video is offputting

[@CrispinBac0n]

Looking forward to this already👌

[@fonzymoz]

First ad poorly placed

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for your feedback.

[@phaetson]

this ad is so cringe

[@KP-mq7go]

yes way too many