What if This Is the Minsky Moment Right Now?

[@TheCompoundNews]

This episode is sponsored by Public: Discover how you can lock in a 6% or higher yield with a Bond Account at: public.com/compound

[@freddonson5436]

Nick and Jessica? STOP and WATCH every time, my favorites! Calm, cool, and collected, with real information.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for your support!!

[@Anon-j5u]

Amongst the highest quality finance/economics content on KZbin. These two perform thorough analyses with reasonable interpretations and Josh acts as a great medium to channel the viewer's mindset. Thank you for offering this content free of charge. All three of you are excellent at what you do and you are appreciated.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you so much for your kind words, we really appreciate you taking the time to watch!

[@zn3738]

Keep bringing on Nick and Jessica

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

🙏

[@SlothPossum]

I love when Nick and Jessica are the guests, great show every time!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much!

[@liamperlstein9145]

Nick and Jessica are so great…learn something new every time they are on

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you, we’re so glad!

[@MonteRosa849]

One of the best financial channels! I love how you bring to us the BIG PICTURE! Context really matters! 👏

[@MarkHougen]

The Net Margin and ROE chart (at 33:25) was incredibly insightful

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

We’re so glad!

[@jacobreis3861]

Josh, The Compound and Datatrek...ALL brilliant! So helpful to us individual investors!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you so much, we’re so glad it’s helpful!

[@rgwei3521]

Investing is not a single factor game. It is amazing how Datatrek is able to analyze all the relevant factors and come up with data driven conclusions. Josh is an amazing host. What a great discovery to bring those two to broader audience base. Thanks again.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks very much for your kind words and for watching!

[@eh7599]

Great guests. I subscribed to Data Trek podcast

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much!!

[@bradstoker1436]

Wonderful presentation. Thoughtful experts. 29:00 The header says up to 2020; latest data point is 9/2024?

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you! It goes through Feb 2020. We just noted what the percentage was currently for reference.

[@johnchurchill4767]

Generally, I love the Compound & Friends and look forward to every episode, but Nick and Jessica are favs. Thank you all for sharing (some of) your work with the masses. - John Churchill (long time listener, fan, in Denmark)

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you so much, we’re very glad you like it and really appreciate your support!

[@Mark-ph5nh]

I like Jessica, thank you for so many information about the current state!!!!!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!!

[@HowardRoark1]

YES THEY ARE THE BEST. MORE EPISODES WITH NICK AND JESS PLEASE!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@baloodogg]

Always great information. Love when Jessica and Nick are on. You all are appreciated.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you so much, we really appreciate your support!

[@pietervanderhoop802]

Very good analysis, more information than on CNBC Josh!!!

[@oneyedman443]

Fantastic charts. As usual. Thanks Nick and Jess. (And JB)

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@jims2165]

Nick & Jessica are top notch. Please continue to bring them on. The way the present the data makes sense to understanding the current economic picture.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much!

[@anoosh9124]

My favorite podcast. Always something new to learn. Thank you Josh and the crew.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@Treyray108]

Great show today!! Nick and Jessica always do a great job with bringing the facts and perspective. Jessica has been a star since day 1, went to school with her and knew she was going to kill it back then.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Aw thank you so much 🙏 hope you are well!

[@MarkPoserina-xj5ft]

Nick and Jessica are like Shaq and Kobe of data / market analysis. Love hearing their take on markets. NEVER SHORT ALL TIME HIGHS!! 🔥

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much, your support means a lot to us!

[@Vix381]

These people are so smart!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@davidgardner4787]

These guys are fantastic!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much!

[@COUSAMAGA]

Thank you all for your time!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@rapidsk8]

Nick n Jess every time 👍

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching! So glad you liked it!

[@redpillrepository]

These guests bring it, every time. Thanks for another great show, Josh 💣💪

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching, so glad you enjoyed it!

[@adityarookey1]

Really like these 2 guests! Amazing analysis

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much, we’re so glad you liked it!

[@neilblondell4235]

Great content with Nick and Jessica! Watching from Asia!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much for watching!!

[@caseycasey4494]

This is gonna be good!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

😀

[@dinosaurdude5668]

Nick taught me that I need Oil in portfolio to hedge economy. Never understood that reason for having a position.

[@chriscoe7465]

These are great. I wonder if you can turn on video podcasts on Spotify to avoid losing context for the charts.

[@martytayman9138]

Three of my very favorite analysts. Add Brad Gerstner and Tom Lee and you have my “Fab Five”.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@AugustoLucarelli]

We had that in 2000. The federal budget was in surplus! The private sector borrowed too much and it collapsed. Josh, please, invite prof. Steve Keen into your podcast.

[@Lanark83]

Love the dynamic duo!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@meknizdceo701]

Really good information!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!

[@willyyimable]

Thanks for sharing

[@digilifepro]

Haven't even watched yet but seeing Nick and Jess on the title card I know it'll be a good one! Seems like the comments consensus too. @TheCompoundNews : fun fact- the first "The Compound" episode I ever saw featured Nick & Jessica and Nick said something that hit hard, and I was hooked on The Compound from then on: "The Fed Put isn't about a level on SPX. The Fed Put is the VIX." 🤯

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thanks so much for your support!!

[@satyam9281]

Real good value of the time

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you, we’re so glad!

[@jeffreyharrison4045]

Love these guests!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@amritsingh-e3h]

Thank you Nick and Jessica.....

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@KickingitLIVEly]

Loving the sweater tie combo #dtjb

[@SSModi852]

Great discussion. But I am not getting scared of those high PEs. Lost enough upswing being on cash😂

[@roobear5357]

These two are great for sober analysis by the numbers…re ROE avg for past top handful of companies vs today , I’d like to see that for all U.S stocks

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@Dubai_life_]

Thank you

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you for watching!

[@jtrealfunny]

36:30 Excellent explanation of a potential flaw in historical PE analysis (the companies today are much better at making money, more solid financiall,y and have higher ROE).

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!

[@BoyPlunge]

Awesome.

[@robharris5658]

Good stuff!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!

[@AugustoLucarelli]

We still have relatively low private debt to have a collapse. If we reduce the federal deficit too much that will force the private sector to borrow too much relative to the income.

[@jtrealfunny]

12:00 I will mention, with credit to Bill Fleckenstein, that bonds have reacted contrary to the feds easing policy; things like that and the gold price are good reason to be interested. And with El-Erian talking about foreigners building 'lots of little pipes' to circumvent the dollar it feels like there is more and more attention on the order of our fiscal house: credible people on youtube (Stephanie Pomroy her name might be) are talking about us being in developing world sorts of financial disorder, which coupled with the demographics and entitlement story sounds pretty grim. The real job of the treasury and the fed will be to manage the inflation necessary to get us out of our debt predicament (fiscal dominance as Lynn Alden calls it). So much name dropping. With our future president wanting to show us what a macho winner he is I can only imagine the interesting times ahead. Take it from the man. 15:30 Totally agree with the guest that the big question at these times is the multiple. Wish I knew more about historical multiple expansion and reversion; are these multiples justified and how so? Betting agains the rich getting richer has been a 40 year loser. Rich people own assets. And run the country. They don't seem inclined to take a haircut. Maybe tariffs can make us great again.

[@DoloresLehman]

Thanks for the analysis! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?

[@Hawking1969]

great job!!!!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Thank you!!

[@stevecohen11]

Please correct me if I’m mistaken, but Trump’s announcement today about 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and 10% on China are likely inflationary which will affect the feds trajectory.

[@SethJohnson-t7c]

That chick is smart

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

🙏

[@c-note]

Downtown Dapper Brown

[@pbjbagel]

Great content. But, is Nick Colas his real name??

[@supermutant]

Re: Minsky Moment - any connection between a bubble popping and loosening of regulations?

[@usonian11]

Apropos time to have a discussion of investment phases

[@dewallsworld]

The best!

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

😀

[@chipshiner2371]

Was looking for the es to make a new high to correct a high in electronic trading highs. Not today.

[@tengo-hambre817]

Looking at the forward multiples for tech whether it’s price to earnings or price to sales a year long or more bear market is not far away. The indiscriminate bidding of the majority of tech companies is a good indicator at which stage in the cycle we are in

[@briancase6180]

But, Josh: what about Amazon in the early 2010s? They wasted tons of money on the Fire Phone, and they didn't have ANY margins to waste....

[@pathflight9803]

Breaking news trump now doubling down on tariffs even Canada. Hope you enjoyed your bull market

[@DansChessLounge]

I wouldn’t be buying bonds right now in a bull market. Now is the time to buy equities.

[@stuartbarnes2375]

Minsky said stability creates instability

[@PC-cs5wp]

What happened at the END of the MID 1990s???????

[@NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE.]

A great buying opportunity for 10-12 years later?

[@matt.stevick]

👍🏼📈🇺🇸

[@SinergiasHolisticas]

Nikkei 1989.

[@adamlorden5666]

oh ow

[@jonscrivner9087]

"You don't have to like everyone who was voted to every post?" I wonder if that statement comes back to haunt.

[@SSModi852]

Everyone, their mom and the grandma and grandma's lawn guy is invested on margins 😂

[@teabee8990]

Your employment numbers do not include those who are not seeking employment and not collecting benefits from any source.

[@stevewood1090]

Why is he talking about forward To PEs? Analysts are in the tank and never lower earnings estimates until forced.

[@plinkfuture2557]

Instead of thinking that modern companies are ‘better’ than previous companies, couldn’t you just look at it and say that modern companies are better at becoming monopolies and therefore have higher pricing power?

[@doublet__7417]

your unemployment numbers are incorrect, they changed the headline from u6 to u4, u6 is 7.3% right now, not good not terrible

[@jluther1755]

Actually the headline number is the U2 number. With all the downward revision In the labor market like that recent 800,000 thought we Farted but we Shit ourselves downward revision how can you take the number seriously..

[@doublet__7417]

@@jluther1755 I had to double check, U3 is the current headline number, but I have always believed U6 to be far more accurate

[@jluther1755]

I don't think Jobs paying Less than 15 dollars an hour should be counted as Employment more Like a Pass time, going in the hole with the full time employment is the American way though or the federal minimum wage wouldn't be 7.25 an hour since 2009. Love watching Jamie Demon defend that federal minimum wage again and Again while his Bank commits felony after felony and he becomes a billionaire. Another comment mentioned the Hypocrisy I'd say Jamie Demon is the king of Hypocrisy and somehow Waffles Brown 🤎 Keeps defending that Ass hole. Love you anyhow JB.

[@jluther1755]

Also unemployment Rate doesn't reflect the millions that have left the job market. It's Really a Bull shit number 100 percent

[@jimmalmstrom6593]

Technically Druck not Soros mis-timing TECH in 2000

[@midwestcannabis]

189th like 🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️

[@edmundlively8137]

For every borrower there is a lender and for every lender there is a borrower. The two cancel out. 😃😃😃😃

[@rileyandersen7346]

20:05 USA USA USA

[@DavidPrattm]

Would be nice if he allowed Jessica to speak.

[@NickColasandJessicaRabe]

Keep watching Jessica gives a lot of analysis 😀

[@saudibonesawexpert8937]

I like Nick’s commentary and addition to the show. He brings a calm, rational, and unbiased perspective but holy god, you guys have got to change his camera setup

[@NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE.]

Rude Blasphemy?

[@simrans3675]

Why bruhv?

[@Kabul-v2h]

did we learn or we did learn… remove the what and leave we were it is.

[@concisecontenttv]

The top 10% own 90% of the stock market. The bottom 42% own none. So if "everyone" is the top 10% then okay Josh, everyone is happy no matter who got elected. smh

[@simrans3675]

It's over...

[@ZoffPhx]

Its not Ipos its meme coins now same story different characters

[@breadloaf2163]

Tad too bullish for my taste.

[@bryonseverns5919]

scores of crypto crap going up is a sign

[@birdmandan9524]

What Josh calls a “Vibe Shift” rational people call “Hypocrisy”. Love the Compounds takes on just about everything but this take is genuinely laughable. Next 4 years are going to be interesting.

[@yehmustafa2959]

WTF are you having this discussion now. Maybe next year, but not now.

[@anacisewski7703]

Shows the hypocrisy of people. They follow the gossip, not the facts. Sadly you guys follow the hypocrisy.

[@Treyray108]

Cry more 😭

[@NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE.]

Say you sold at the bottom without saying you sold at the bottom

[@simrans3675]

What happened? You seem upset...

[@dinosaurdude5668]

This comment doesn’t even make sense. How is talking about financial history hypocrisy? We hit all time market highs, meaning every time up until now was a bad time to sell, and it’s always been a time to buy - Josh Brown.