Sovereign Debt Markets Facing Turmoil in 2025 | The Loonie Hour Episode 168

[@kevindorion4997]

People who actually know what's going on know Canada is currently actually a failed state -currency manipulation -assest manipulation -mass government corruption -unfettered immigration -failed court system -mass exploitation of the welfare state (people collecting welfare not even in the country) -highest tax rates -destruction of all creativity -flight of capital -DEI in all public sectors -failed military -rampant crime both independent and organized People have no idea how bad it actually is, and it's going to get a lot worse before it even attempts to get better. The US annexing Canada would actually be the most beneficial option for both sides. Public gets less taxes, a constitution, protection and capital. US gets access to resources.

[@roseoverdose6451]

merging with the usa sounds mighty tempting right now.

[@rachelk8368]

The smart people have already left or are preparing to leave

[@raczyk]

Negativity always sells...but life goes on..

[@roseoverdose6451]

@@raczyk why would you even try to sell it, when everyone can get it for free?

[@prao4603]

The US isn't serious about annexation because it would ensure Democrat govts for ever. The only thing I see being remotely possible is AB voting to join the US, that might be acceptable to them.

[@tatianastarcic]

If the dollar collapses don’t be fooled your debts doesn’t disappear, they add it back to the new currency or mode of barter. best advice get out of debt. make regular investments be debt free and financially stable

[@Vincent-j8u]

Safest approach i feel to go about it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert

[@nicolasbenson009]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $317k to $850k.

[@sharonwinson-m8g]

I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

[@nicolasbenson009]

My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@TinaJames222]

I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.

[@fretstain]

Alright I hate to have to say this but can Keith move his camera away from the window. The light blowout is legitimately hurting my eyes when he's on screen.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

I need blinds!

[@prao4603]

It's part of the boomer experience bro, they blowout the future of young Canadians as well as your eyes.

[@Aubatron]

@@prao4603😂

[@signalarity7171]

Relax bruh

[@pin65371]

I'm gonna throw another guest request in the hat. I think most people have heard about that massive data center that Kevin O'Leary wants to build in Alberta but what I didnt realize is he is mainly just an investor. The groundwork for that project has been in the works for a while now. I was watching a podcast with a guy named Kyle Reiling who has been the executive for the development of that industrial zone. Its actually sorta wild. If that full project gets built out it would require around 10% of all natural gas extracted in Alberta.. lol He might be a good guest to have on to talk about these opportunities in Canada. That is just one project but IMO places like Quebec and Ontario should be looking at attracting large data centers. We essentially have an unlimited amount of power, we have a cold environment and we have a pretty educated and trained workforce to really attract massive investments. The only thing is we need to move fast. Alberta is doing that. Not sure if the rest of the country will keep up. It sounds like they want the first phase of that project in Alberta up and running around 2027. Then they just want to keep building through the phases so the workers are never unemployed.

[@prao4603]

Where is this "unlimited amount of power" gonna come from in ON and QC lol. It works in AB because there is cheap natural gas nearby that is being used to power the data centers. QC and ON would need to setup dedicated hydro or nuclear projects in order to power the AI data centers, but they won't and are inefficient at large infra projects any ways. By the time they build those large infra projects, the US-based silicon valley companies will have functioning small nuclear power plants to power their own data centers...

[@b-rare]

You guys should do an episode where it’s loonie hour hot box special and just pass blunts and have the same conversations 😂 I feel rich would be hilarious

[@donm2067]

I personally would supply the 🥬 That's an epic idea

[@shsal110]

33:30 the trust fund analogy is so great! Hope it catches on and gets into the mainstream dialogue

[@joeflake5829]

Great episode gents! Keith, please put up a blind, that sun behind you makes it tough to watch when you are on the screen. Happy New Year to all!

[@marcgatto9675]

To The Loonies and all the Loonie followers have a Happy Healthy and Profitable New Year 🎉

[@roseoverdose6451]

same to you!

[@johnkendall1171]

Steve. The information you relayed about sales centres 1:34 closing, projects on hold and only 5,000 presale’s when the average is 22,000 should lead us to another story. That is the future rise in unemployment. I think it is going to go through the roof. If projects aren’t starting not only do you not need workers but you also do not need the billions of dollars worth of products which will cause even more unemployment. That will drive interest rates lower. Steve….additional thoughts ??

[@G_Ellis606]

Lower rates = a shitty worthless loonie

[@joeman01]

Another informative, fun, and comprehensive episode for Canadians. 🎉🎉

[@Canadian_Eh_I]

Keep banging the inflation drum Steve. Its takes a few times for the message to penetrate thick skulls lol

[@jamesheron2282]

Canada has entered the Japanification era of our real estate. Japan peaked prices in the late 1980’s then stagnated those prices until where presently; 35 years later the dollar amount is the same as the 1980’s prices but the value of the Japanese Yen has depreciated greatly. Canada’s real estate will stagnate prices and our dollar will continue to devalue so in effect housing cost relative to local incomes will eventually return to the 3-5 times local incomes as for the next couple of decades Canadians will demand raises even with high unemployment as the devaluing dollar makes everyone poorer as house prices stay the same. Eventually the median local incomes in 15 years will become $250,000 and a home will still be around a million dollars so that housing is affordable once again yet on a per capita basis Canadians are far worse off. China, Europe and others are all heading into the same scenario due to global population projected to start declining before 2050 with China and European countries already losing millions of citizens per year due to low birth rates adding up from 20 years ago. It’ll be kind of nice to see the strains on infrastructure etc. start to ebb as population starts decreasing and Canada will have to adjust to these realities.

[@socialmedia-x8e]

Canada house prices: "Hold my beer" My guess is prices will be up year over year in Dec 2025. Edmonton will be up over 10%... needs to play catch up. In 15 years, pricing will be more than double of what it is now.

[@prao4603]

"Short Bitcoin and long 30Y US bonds" - the most boomer words ever be spoken on the loonie hour. 😂

[@Victor-herman1971]

short boomer

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

@@Victor-herman1971 lol

[@latorregolf]

Says boomer who's got Bitcoin wrong for 15 years straight

[@georgepoulos7379]

Happy and prosperous 2025 guys!

[@successfullguy]

replace the BOC with Loonie Hour

[@mark3xZod]

For the love of yer Mudder Keith, get some curtains for that window!

[@donm2067]

I'm surprised a boomer would let his money go out the window like that.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

@@donm2067 hahaha

[@grandmaG67]

I just upped our payment for precious minerals and added some equity and growth stocks. I'm going to add a gic into the mix now. I think we're in for a rough ride and if people don't protect their money it'll be taken by taxes.

[@marcoalbanese8221]

Happy New Year’s everyone!!

[@Chris-xc1tm]

Damn, spitting hard truths this week.

[@karim.mmmmmmm]

A house = land + materials + labour … when prices of any of these 3 falls down even a bit . Wake me up for a crash

[@shsal110]

+ development fees/taxes. Let's see how long it takes for that to drive what people are willing to pay. Been disconnected for quite a while, and govts are incentivized to keep it that way.

[@karim.mmmmmmm]

@shsal110 government is run by the banks ... real estate collapse means banking collapse ... meaning the whole economy collapses ... real estate is too hard to let go ..

[@addyinvest]

Happy New Year fellas! Great 2024 - looking forward to 2025.

[@sandymac7153]

Happy NY gents and thanks for all your insight

[@infillvaluecreation]

Sounds like the precursor to the hot Alberta market were a rare occurrence of 3-4 factors and quite possible most of those factors could be neutral or reverse in 25. Hard to predict another double digit gain despite some brave people out there showing their recency bias. Also the incredible supply reaction from the industry has been remarkable

[@EddyBergen-n5z]

Is your sound track 'Another One Bites the Dust'?

[@seventh7orbit]

Pricing real estate in gold is an excellent idea. 98% of investors don't realise that if their investments were priced in gold, they would hardly ever have to pay tax on capital gains.

[@mandrews1245]

History shows price of gold can flucuate wildly... People talk about it now because it is at an all time high. When it goes back down to $400. they will think differently.

[@CoconutPatel]

Happy quarter century 🎉

[@the5chord]

Link for the price of real estate ounces of gold?

[@donm2067]

Well, you could always do the fashionable thing and do your own research on this, it takes a total of 5 minutes and requires basic analytical thinking. You could start with a gold chart, then a house price chart, now this is where it gets complicated, you are going to need a calculator. Take the price of a house in a given year and divide it by the price of gold for the same year. Here's some other basic things you may need help with; *The stove is hot *Water is wet *Banks and politicians shouldn't be trusted.

[@stevevanpion3265]

Rich, you got to look at Russell Napier's recent (2mo ago) presentation...he said the Japanese largest investment positions are in FRANCE and USA (Brazil is another IMO BTW)...Merry Xmas HNY you guys !! 2025 is when it all "happens". As for politics I think Keith knows the REAL history, who controls what countries REALLY REALLY

[@ChrisMcCartney-i1u]

Rich throwing down on early on that Madonna reference.

[@BellaBella-jw9ef]

Keep them honest, Steve!

[@toddfromwork8931]

Keith is always right

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

You got that right.

[@DrMarkyMark]

Canada’s EV duties in on Chinese cars was to align with the USA as a trading block. We also have to protect our own car manufacturers in Canada. That being said, if Trump rips up the North American free trade agreement, all bets are off. Either we are in the circle of friends or we are out.

[@mandrews1245]

If Trump wants renegotiation I'd have one with Canada and Mexico and leave USA out.

[@quixomega]

I'm not sure the CAD will continue to decline very much. I think the main cause of the decline is the difference between economic conditions/interest rates in Canada and the USA. I know the idea of Canadian housing trading sideways for 10 years is popular with real estate agents because it's appealing to them, but I don't think the current real estate market is tenable. In order to buy a 1 bedroom condo in Toronto @ $500k (which is about the floor) you need to be making at least 100K/year. I've looked and I don't see any examples of real estate prices trading sideways for a decade.

[@quixomega]

I just realized that I agree with Kieth. Does that make me a boomer?

[@joeflake5829]

I have been in housing in the GTA for almost 40 years. The price increases in the last 9-10 years have been wild. It's going to be interesting if they do put an actual cap on immigration for the next 5-10 years. Something needs to be done for sure. The market in the 90's was basically sideways for about a decade, it did decline through the decade, but not very much, at least in the Toronto area.

[@wes5977]

Iam thinking about the century it is amazing it seems to me like rich 2000 was just a few years ago

[@surprisek3918]

Let's think about that: house prices remaining the same for years to come.... Let that sink in while the world around us changes. You have a little "nest egg" in that home of yours? No you don't.

[@bobwinters5572]

Who are the biggest buyers of gov't bonds? Private Banks. Who borrows money directly from the central bank and actually pays the policy rate? Private banks. Who needs to write off large amounts of commercial real estate mortgage assets? Private banks. The entire point of the central bank cutting rates is to lower the cost of money to private banks. But private banks need to keep money in order to write off their bad debts, so they need better returns on performing assets such as gov't bonds and new mortgages, so long term rates stay elevated. So, basically, rates are where they are because the private banks are busy fixing their balance sheets. As for other fund managers, stocks have done so well the past couple years that the managers are terrified of losing their clients if they don't deliver 20%+ returns, so those managers are light on bonds.

[@a.m.9344]

We are all sifting through an analysis of “Flatland” when we need a Mt. Everest 30,000 foot view. Will it happen in 2025?

[@DJRS2178]

Low sales volume (low volume, few trades) precedes a volatile move, up or down.... probabilities heavily point to down. Imagine what happens when the stock market that has been making new highs goes for a crash? Crypto and all other markets will follow.... people will no longer be complaining about inflation but deflation, the loss of value in the things they own. I guess the FED does know what they are doing, the public is just clueless and led to believe otherwise.

[@cortlandlaidlaw3888]

Where my SK shoutout. Long BTC since 2016, Long gold, waiting for TLT to do something :)

[@DiabeticDawg]

Two income trap baby

[@stevea3043]

Just bought TLT 1000 shares I’ll see you hear next Xmas pre new years 🎊 🎉 Also we are in for an election this spring period it’s already written

[@b-rare]

When the bond rates go up doesn’t that mean speculating more risk for the future ? Futures uncertain with our politicians, low cad, inflation could return, recession. When you lend money, you’d want more interest because of the risk. Isn’t that how it generally goes?

[@charlesfeng2928]

TLT tried to break the $87 for the last 3-4 days yet not able to break down yet. Maybe the boomer did some knife catching here?

[@markhoffman]

The fact that Canada will become the USA is mind bending.

[@uncubicle5993]

I think Canada will only obtain territory status like Puerto Rico/Guam. Why would the US absorb so many future Democrat voters?

[@Matt.k864]

Will people still invest into Canada with a unstable currency

[@prao4603]

Depends on how many more new immigrants we can import that are willing to become bag holders and rent-serfs for over-valued Canadian RE. Since we aren't really serious about developing our natural resources anyways.

[@rachelk8368]

Interview Peter Hann CFA from Alberta. He predicts we will be a fractured country in 2-4 generations

[@prao4603]

More like 1-2 decades

[@donm2067]

5 years.

[@toddfromwork8931]

That's not much of a prediction. China and India have already settled entire geographic areas of this land mass. They could both make legitimate claims to them today and the world would have to contend with those.

[@DanGale-c1j]

34:30 LOL RICH BOOMER

[@realiceburn6142]

Gold is not the metric you think it is. If you used a trending of gold price over the last 100+ years, and just used that line, it would be more accurate. BRICS buying up excessive amounts of physical gold over the last number of years has driven a price anomaly and its absolutely wrong to compare todays home prices to todays gold price to arrive at the conclusion that housing is anywhere near normal. It would be more accurate to do a trend line of Big Macs or Kraft dinner and use that.

[@prao4603]

Most people would argue gold is undervalued due to a lot of manipulation by Central Banks and govts. Physical gold that is, not ETFs, etc. The anomaly is the relatively lower price than where it should be.

[@oceanbearing]

You guys almost went full loonie in this episode. So basically the problem with Canada housing was a policy put in place by Harper and conservatives. Then every year things got worse and worse regardless who is in power.

[@samuelkirz]

Steve loves to talk about ounces of gold to price things but gold has not kept up with inflation since its spike in the 80s. He is picking and choosing where he starts and stops with the gold garbage. If you think the 80s spike is me choosing a starting point, why doesn't steve talk about how gold went absolutely nowhere between 2010 and 2020... do you want an asset that round trips to zero over a decade? You just start when gold was at cycle low and housing started going up because of interest rates and (in Vancouver) Chinese buyers. It's garbage analysis and I'm shocked that your friends who are financial professionals don't call you out on it. How about you test gold from the 80s highs vs Vancouver real estate

[@samuelkirz]

Don't forget the 2016 cut due to the oil shock. May have been needed for work in Alberta, but was not great in vancouver (pre foreign buyers tax)

[@pwnfour]

Doesnt Rich still owe a twinkie debt?

[@nickzivs]

“Everybody’s made money on the housing market.” - Boomer @22:51 100% falsehood, there’s a reason that you have so many young people living at home still, they lacked the capital to even enter the housing market because of when they were born. Sure, I will inherit a home that my father on paper has seen gains on, but it’s a home and those gains are a liability not an income-generating asset. When you were born matters so much in the grand scheme of this story.

[@Stormshfter]

Housing was never financialized before the millenium. We bought houses because we didn't want to pay rent until we died. This whole housing as a retirement plan wasn't sold to us in the 80s because it's bullshit that was sold to you by people who profited off of it along the way. Your house might represent 10 years of income today, but 10 years from now it will represent 5 years of income.

[@steyyyjspapa]

!!I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated..

[@AlbertEischted]

As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.

[@jamiejohnson-d9i]

I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market..

[@AlbertEischted]

I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.

[@jamiejohnson-d9i]

Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience.

[@steyyyjspapa]

how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking??

[@themickles]

Any advisor that isn't recommending 2-10% Bitcoin is not doing their job as a feduciery. If yours isn't them fire them.

[@ar6888]

FIRST

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

FIRST!

[@GearsDemon]

Long commodities, Short equity indices