Specialist Blurts Out Why Tesla’s 2025 Will Be Game-Changing

[@steveclauter6802]

When FSD becomes Unsupervised, everything will change. There are NO other competitors at that point. Do YOU want to drive, or even ride in, a DUMB car? I don't and won't. Christmas cheer and hope for a wonderful 2025!

[@jasoncrandall]

Uber came out in 2013. Everyone still driving.

[@lalithkx]

@@jasoncrandallThe difference will be price per mile for robotaxi

[@patlopez2093]

I think Randy is too optimistic. But I love hearing him. Thank you,

[@lessegomorepeace]

Happy Holidays to both of you gentlemen. You bring a lot of joy and useful insight to my life and I am grateful to you

[@HeavenGuy]

Leasing a new Y for $387/mo with $6k to close and then renting FSD adds up to about $.60 per mile without $ for insurance. Not a lot of room at $1 per mile to make money as a private robotaxi, especially since Tesla's cut isn't factored.

[@PrescottResident]

Did you do a similar video last year with predictions? If so- I'm curious how they turned out. I'm new here so maybe I missed it. Our local news channel does a show like that with local journalists. It's a fun watch at the end of the year :)

[@curtisyoung7107]

Hoping to see Optimus actively teleoperating working in space to build the infrastructure for Moonbase construction and exploration 😊

[@DougJessee]

@@curtisyoung7107 I hadn’t thought of the moon, but I did think of they would try one helping with the new space station.

[@rubenarce3324]

Optimus wouldn't be teleoperating on the moon or in orbit. It would be WORKING, completing given tasks. No need for a teleoperator.

[@gregorstoutbelly5598]

Thanks for keeping the community informed this holiday season guys

[@stevejordan-fd1om]

You didn’t mention the big trucks ! Semi !!!

[@TecnamTwin]

Yay! Randy is back.

[@newworld6474]

Thanks Brian

[@phillipbertrand8514]

For me (80 yrs old) will be a super bonus. Cant wait!!!!

[@JboKit]

You the man Brian!!

[@davidstevens-io3mg]

this was a great gab. Reallly great

[@williamsloggy5144]

TESLA Semi business will be huge. Cross country FSD Semi's on the interstate will be game changing. Cyber Taxi's sound cool but the real market for them will be in Europe and China. Most Americans still want personal cars.

[@dennisolsen8945]

I agree. I can see Robotaxis becoming popular in cities with 1M+ population, but I have an aunt who lives 25 miles from a town of 10,000 (largest town in 60 mile radius). When she goes to town, she may be grocery shopping, visiting a friend along the way, Dr appt, dropping something off or picking something up , etc. How long is she going to wait for a Robotaxi? What does she do with groceries if not the last stop? It just doesn’t seem practical for people in rural areas to not own a car.

[@vermontsownboy6957]

First, happily so. Happy New Year Brian.

[@sandmehlig]

I think the focus of unsupervised FSD in 2025 is going to be on RoboTaxi. For all other models it would be a welcomed side-effect, but RoboTaxi couldn't function without it (except when it gets stuck).

[@Rob_Womack]

Thanks Brian!

[@milescoleman910]

I think the effect on demand might be more interesting in a decade or so when the cars won’t have drivers. . A world where you can call your friend who is at work and say ‘hey can I borrow your car? I’ll leave a 20 in the dash?’ And the car can drive to your friend for his use and bring itself back.

[@dorapadilla5731]

How many Exaflops will Tesla have built od ptocessing power between Dojo and Nvidias B100 B200s.

[@sjvtesla]

This was awesome

[@brucedavey2962]

I’d be very happily surprised if Australia gets FSD soon, being right hand drive. I live in New Zealand also RH drive. In a way I want it to wait for a year or so as I don’t have the $$ for a Tesla car but will have when the share price doubles.

[@charlesrovira5707]

@6:06 Once *FSD UnSupervised* rolls out to the wider fleet with AI-3 & AI-4, (models S, 3, X, Y, CyberTruck, 𝛵au, and Semi,) the path to *CyberTaxi* is _barrier-free._

[@Leafbinder]

Anyone else been playing PoE2 ? I mean besides me and Elon ? Its a challange but a fun game. Great video Brian and Randy.

[@murphyjim]

The term Exponential Function will begin to appear as the robotisation of the production begins to take effect robots producing robots who produce more robots ... with an ever increasing factory size as more robots are added to the production line

[@jackcoats4146]

Will Juniper have bidirectional charging?

[@FutureAzA]

Highland doesn't, so it's pretty unlikely.

[@Matzes]

Unsupervised in first quarter is the most crazy prediction here

[@FutureAzA]

Agreed.

[@craighermle7727]

That doesn't happen with the current way FSD is acquiring data.

[@abspasadena]

Sounds like some excellent predictions. We will see!

[@MrEd2291]

Once the Chinese factory starts producing megapacks, I do not see Tesla at least announcing another megapack factory in 2025. Both profit margins and TAM demand it.

[@robertweekley5926]

It might not be "Exactly" right after the Shanghai Megapack Factory "Starts" production, but possibly when it is at 70% to 80% of "Full Capacity!" That would be a smart thing to do, and confirm it is Very Repeatable!

[@colinwp8285]

Problem with Gig Berlin, could be not just continued union pressure but, the biggest issue as VW has found, labour cost. Stock options as a package help for now but in time, people will be looking for wages they have been use to.

[@billbuffington3037]

Labor costs will be high, but Tesla is far more automated and robotic than any other car company. With Optimus and FSD coming, Tesla facilities can operate with far fewer workers than the competition.

[@robertwoodhouse-bm7kt]

Soon there will be a large number of German car factory workers looking for a new job and it´s likely the only factory hiring in Germany will be Tesla. They will have lost their jobs as the company could not afford them. No other company will hire them at the rates they used to get.

[@ddmitch1]

Do you think Robovan will be all-wheel drive?

[@FutureAzA]

Would it need to be?

[@ddmitch1]

@@FutureAzA In the mountains of Colorado, it would be a good idea.

[@dennisolsen8945]

Hope so. It snows where we live!!

[@doug3691]

Also taking the under on CT numbers, but looking for upside surprises in '25.

[@thanksno4911]

I was right there with you until the end. Expanding the population through a juicy end is NOT what I want to visualize, thanks!

[@tonydebreceni8966]

Flyin with Brian and Dandy Randy

[@Battle_pigeon]

When markets realise future value of Energy and Semi (Logistics as a Service). That’s when we’ll hockey stick.

[@reengineerit]

One thing is certain 2025 is going to be another wild adventure. Glad you guys are our sherpas for it all.

[@FutureAzA]

Randy's the shepherd, I'm the sherpa.

[@luismontelongo4148]

​@@FutureAzA😂

[@OuterSpaceDogs]

In my view. Even if Tesla makes 20,000 Cyber Cabs this 2025 year, that's Barely enough to cover Cyber Cabs Badly NEEDEED that would service: All of Tesla Giga Factories World Wide and The Vegas Loops, and Space X Campuses And the Star City, and XAi Brain Centers. That alone will give a great deal of Data for Self Driving Employees and Products and Logistics. Dude!

[@OuterSpaceDogs]

And further. By doing. So, there is zero need to regulatory waiting time to apply cybercab learnings because they're all in private property.

[@brianp8384]

Unsupervised in Q1 2025 would certainly be something but I’m curious what actual evidence that prediction is based on when HW3 hasn’t even got 12.6 and there’s not even a promise of v13 for it?

[@FutureAzA]

Gotta get over the v3 thing. It was an urban legend started by one guy who desperately despises Tesla. Ignore it.

[@murphyjim]

No mention of revenue from licensing FSD ... Traditional manufacturers have two choices 1. licence FSD. 2. Bankruptcy.

[@FutureAzA]

How much revenue do you expect from licensing FSD in 2025?

[@murphyjim]

@@FutureAzA A trivial amount - however the mere fact that the legacy industry have moved to that solution is v significant for the share price dont you think ?

[@Modok51]

How about the economic downturn in China! Unemployment is rising, negative population growth, unchecked new virus circulating causing lack of consumer spending, rising protest against China in Africa & multiple nations implementations of tariffs against Chinese products. These factors could lead to reduce Tesla sales in China in 2025!

[@murphyjim]

Dark Factories .. the easiest one to make is the megapack factory staffed by optimus. then an optimus factory (its more complicated) which brings in the exponential function into robot production numbers .. Then the cybercab factory in Mexico .. no humans

[@rkanagala]

Can Optimus make more Optimus?

[@mnsawmill2904]

India and to some degree Indonesia were talked about a lot in 2024, then came Elon's last minute meeting in China, nothing has been said about either since.. Did China pull the rug on them both ??

[@420Star69]

Do you guys take into account that when Optimus starts working in the factory in larger numbers, the cost of production will SIGNIFICANTLY fall.

[@FutureAzA]

Labor is already a small part of the total cost.

[@Matzes]

Cost of labour is around 2k per car, which is significant but not crazy.

[@420Star69]

@@FutureAzA that cost is that counted time on the line ? Or does it include vacation, sick leave, hiring/firing process, training process, safety training/equipment/facilities, chitchat time, management of line workers, hr department for the line workers, parking facilities etc etc

[@scotttisdale2773]

Share price over $1,000 end of 2025.

[@john_hind]

My prediction for 2025: Randy Kirk will write another book. It will either be called 'The Elon Musk Madness' or 'The Elon Musk Meltdown'.

[@garethrobinson2275]

Is that supposed to be funny? My prediction for 2025, I will be a lot richer than 2024. NB I've been all in on Tesla since $14.

[@john_hind]

@@garethrobinson2275 It was supposed to be a humorous way of highlighting a fact about investing in Musk that bulls and bears alike ignore. Unlike the bears, I see the upside, but unlike the bulls, I also see the massive risk, which has enormously increased with Elon's involvement with the US Government. The most optimistic view is that Elon is diverted from value generation and sandbags growth in his enterprises. But worse, Elon's enterprises accrete Elon's enemies and Elon is making enemies faster than he makes cars. To mention just one of many, how much damage can the CCP do to Tesla when they decide Musk is a very convenient scapegoat?

[@tfragia1]

Too early for Unsupervised. I'll go with FSD Supervised subscriptions will increase. How's that for bullishness? 🙂

[@Linda-dv9kt]

Any comments on Federal tax credit in 2025?

[@FutureAzA]

Haven't seen any guidance yet.

[@richardalexander5758]

TSLA at $550 unless FSD is approved. 2.4 million vehicles, and I agree with the Berlin expansion alone with mega pack plans. Mexico might get started as well. Model Q will start production, but no big numbers.

[@IndigenousEarthling101]

I think Tesla will want to install, ramp, and optimize their “unboxed” NV9X production equipment and processes before building new gigafactories.

[@pauldaggett6759]

OK since we are spit-balling here, I have a 2025 announcement with sales second half of 2026 - suppressed technology revealed of electrical energy that will dramatically improve range of EVs (and other applications). Elon will be first to market in Tesla’s….

[@lym3204]

Tesla will keep FSD supervised as long as possible. Even after Robotaxi is accepted unsupervised in some but not all locations.

[@Steve-Richter]

What effect would a 2025 Chinese takeover of Taiwan have on Tesla? Considering that the US would have to step aside and do nothing to stop China there would be a lot of pressure on the US political system to block all imports from China. Which means no critical components which Fremont and Austin need to produce a working vehicle. Are there such components? Putting aside the resulting global recession, would Tesla be able to operate if a hard block on Chinese trade were to occur?

[@batchint]

ryan macbeth says the usa will have a more issue with the off shore item in five years which might effect chips with ships maybe

[@dabrain22video]

how about the cybercab is the cheaper model people are skipping over that.

[@FutureAzA]

There was mention on the earnings call that something more affordable would be built on existing 3/Y lines. This wouldn't be built there.

[@silaskelly604]

Will 2025 be the year they get the windshield wipers fixed?

[@billbuffington3037]

With FSD, no one is concerned with the windshield wipers. Keeping rain, snow, and debris off the cameras will be the issue.

[@silaskelly604]

@@billbuffington3037 Thank you, I take that as confirmation that getting the windshield wipers fixed so they would stop dry wiping the sand and dust, destroying the windshield, wasn't a priority issue. Fortunately, the fart noise completion (?), rainbow road, etc., are going to get all the resources they deserve.

[@FutureAzA]

Mine have improved, but they're still too aggressive.

[@JohnSteele-j6j]

Have had 2016, 2019 and 2023 Model S. Never had a problem with the wipers. I don't know why they can't fix M3 & MY.

[@georgegettas5340]

I think that the $700 stock price estimate is very low-2-3x higher would be more likely!

[@sunrisejak2709]

2024 was a "gap year" as voiced by Tesla itself. FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, Semi, etc all hyped but not much revenue generation from those "potential" products. Auto sales look to be flat. 2025 should be a year of product release that Tesla fans can actually buy. FSD unsupervised? We've heard the movie promoted before. 🤞Tesla is forecasting 20-30% growth for 2025. 💪 But again,,,🤞🙏

[@COSMEREAUDIO]

Any gigafactory in India? 🇮🇳💕

[@joefiorentino7353]

Randy has a long history of making predictions that sometimes come through. Just a few weeks ago he was talking 500 pre share. How did that age? At some time Tesla will indeed be 500 per share. So does Randy see that as a win? I enjoy Randy just like I enjoy Elon but they both has issues with timeframes.

[@dennispolack4370]

Model also known as Model P.

[@restonthewind]

FSD will be unsupervised only with remote monitor/operators, so either only Tesla's robotaxi network will have it, or other vehicle owners will need a subscription (in addition to the usual FSD subscription or purchase). I'd bet on the former initially at least. If robotaxis are successful, they may reduce demand for Teslas because some people who would have owned a Tesla will use the robotaxis instead. Robotaxis will be transformative precisely because one taxi can replace many individually owned vehicles and cost less than individual ownership.

[@MoreOnEVs]

Wow! you must have bought a whole case of water bottles to get all that free snake oil😂

[@FutureAzA]

It's a volume discount.

[@DougJessee]

2.2 million cars, 1 new factory, maybe actual start on Mexico, 10k Optimus 2025, 1 mega pack factory…

[@FutureAzA]

Not unreasonable.

[@Battle_pigeon]

Bring back the flippity flop!

[@jamesle4118]

Tesla van?

[@dennisolsen8945]

I want one!! 😎👍

[@Matzes]

I think optimus is crazy valuable but also a loooong time away

[@FutureAzA]

I don't have a "when" on my Optimus prediction. It will happen, I just don't have a timeline expectation.

[@Matzes]

@@FutureAzA yea makes sense

[@saltvatn]

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

[@xiaoandmatt]

2.5 million is not going to happen. My guess is 2.1-2.2 million in 2025.

[@FutureAzA]

My number is closer to yours than Randy's.

[@dennisrivenbark3771]

Semi factory Mega Nevada will probably be finished in 2025, not to even mention AI

[@murphyjim]

Arbitraging of electricity using the car batteries and negapacks ... At some point he will do this (He has a licence in the UK from 2023) Question is when ?

[@anthonylosego]

Here is the question, is the ro bovan a four wheeled vehicle??? Do we KNOW? hmmmmmmm....

[@billyrocket62]

I think that the next woman in line to have Elon's kid is the Italian PM Maloni. 😅

[@Nerdmom1701]

👍🏻🙏🏻❤️

[@IndigenousEarthling101]

I think Randy is overly optimistic, and I hope he is right.

[@williambockoven4729]

prediction when Tesla takes liability for Unsupervised FSD

[@bmk789]

Do I still need to comment?

[@FLABoyInATL]

Randy’s price target is low👍

[@FutureAzA]

We said the same last time we got all time highs.

[@frankcorredine2475]

Slack? A slacker you and Randy are not.

[@anthonylosego]

I've heard the ro bovan has a top speed of 40km/hr. So I gotta wonder, seeing Optimus as a AAA kind of service, would that mean you are in trouble if you need a new tire on the freeway??? Just a thought.

[@cptobvious8428]

Love your show but not sure why you have this guest on. Sorry just can’t watch

[@nicksallnow-smith7585]

I enjoy listening to Randy but to be honest I do not enjoy listening to his shirts

[@paulcoenen7918]

😂

[@FutureAzA]

SO LOUD.

[@Steve-Richter]

What about leadership? Will Elon continue as the sole decision maker at Tesla?

[@gregrobbins3840]

Some Delaware judges might need to step in and run the company.

[@dougm659]

Elon is not the sole decision maker…..jeezus, he delegates a massive amount to his senior team! His job is to hire and motivate the best and he is brilliant at this!

[@Steve-Richter]

@@dougm659 Does anyone have the authority to build a pickup or van? It was wonderful that Tesla was a vertically integrated US manufacturer, that it was aggressively improving efficiencies. The obvious objective being to expand production, shorten the time needed to produce new models. Are you saying the management team decided to downplay their newly developed expertise as manufacturers to switch to autonomy? That makes no sense to me.

[@scottmiller2159]

Comment

[@nedywest71]

Where did you , if ever heard about any EU Self driving standards? Yet again make up? EU and UK are in fact looking to NOT allow Self Driving any time soon. Full / latest FSD is banned in UK as of now.

[@FutureAzA]

They've been giving demonstrations to European regulators in 2024. This is going to happen, the only question is when.

[@nedywest71]

@@FutureAzA Yes one Day will happen, no doubt about that but talking about 10 Years and more in the future can not be reported "is happening" . Be serious. A FSD has not happen yet! In its birth place USA there are just only few (two) cities allowing sort of RoboTaxi and yet you are talking a Global lunch is imminent. What a joke.

[@billyrocket62]

Trump wants more manufacturing in the USA, it would look bad if Elon started a factory in Mexico at this time. I do think that we will see a couple of thousand Optimus robots working in a Tesla factory in 2025, and tens of thousands more in 2026 working in several places.

[@brilanto]

Like almost all other 'American' cars made by 'Union workers' - already during his first term? What would be the difference? What can Trump do against Chinese OEMs producing in the US - undermining his rhetoric?

[@DiO-fy5ex]

BYD will have most of central and South America

[@FutureAzA]

Business is business. That's as far as that goes.

[@mlhutche]

Unsupervised very late in the year.

[@dougmanck4149]

When FSD is truly solved, it will be free just like cruise control is today.

[@robwashere69]

Not a chance. Maybe in 20 years.

[@FutureAzA]

Not so much free like cruise control, but included in the price like airbags.

[@pranshukrishna5105]

Bruh you didn't address my Argument. Why will China not overtake Tesla, after getting access to TSLA's FSD Technology

[@thordang5124]

You think Tesla will just hand it all over?

[@pranshukrishna5105]

@@thordang5124 If Tesla wants to enter Chinese market, they will be forced to share their technology

[@charlesrovira5707]

*China* can try to overtake, but it can't compete with grid scale. Once people's factories, homes, offices, and roads are all electrified, then *Tesla* can worry.

[@pranshukrishna5105]

@@charlesrovira5707 China will use FSD to beat tesla at its own game

[@camronrubin8599]

They will try , let them

[@markrolls5905]

Mate! What r u talking about, Robotaxi is the model 2 with 4 seats, glass trunk, steering wheel & pedals 🤔

[@oggyoggy1299]

No

[@jamespaul2587]

​@@oggyoggy1299Nope, it's an entirely different vehicle platform

[@FutureAzA]

Nope. I covered this, but some viewers didn't believe me. I brought on two veteran automotive engineers to examine and explain it, and they shared that it can't be. Then I went to San Jose and spoke to the engineers who designed and built the Cybercab and they also confirmed this WILL NOT be a human operated vehicle.

[@whatarefriends4]

They can’t do self driving

[@FutureAzA]

Who can't?

[@jamespaul2587]

Wrong: Juniper is not a new model, it's just an update, and Model Q and a smaller hatch aren't coming in 2025.

[@Steve-Richter]

Some of Tesla does not make sense. No pickup or van. Anyway, isn't putting Optimus to work on the production line an ideal first application in 2025? Remove the head and legs, leaving multiple arms on a mobile cart. Tesla could then justify the expense of creating a pickup manufacturing plant by designing a highly/completely automated production line.

[@tmaori]

Cybertruck is a pickup, albeit a futuristic looking one.

[@dennisolsen8945]

I want a van!!😎👍

[@MrGchernetz]

Randy stop eating the shrooms on Christmas time.