Spotting The Stock Market Turning Points

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How can we tell when markets are about to change direction from a selloff to a rally or from a rally to a selloff? These are the turning points in the so-called “Market Cycle”. In this video, I explore ideas from the legendary investor Howard Marks to see what we need to look out for, how to avoid making costly mistakes and how to spot when the stock market is about to turn.
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Timestamps
00:00 Into
00:27 Market Timing
02:02 Market Cycle
03:57 Everything Cycles
06:41 Why Do Markets Overshoot?
08:09 Why Do Markets Recover?
09:26 Prospective Returns
10:54 Resist Euphoria
12:22 Resist Despair
13:48 Taking The Temperature Out of The Market
14:53 Limitations
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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

[@Pensioncraft]

Sponsored by Blinkist: Get 25% off Blinkist premium and enjoy 2 memberships for the price of 1! Start your 7-day free trial by clicking here: blinkist.com/pensioncraft

[@bashh568]

@PensionCraft I don't see where on that link it says 2 for 1 memberships?

[@Starstreak170]

All I know is that the market is closer to turning now than 1 year ago.

[@investingwithkendrick]

I just wanted to say that I truly appreciate you, your the reason why I started my youtube channel in the first place. Thanks to you I now teach people about financial literacy and how to invest their money. Thanks once again, and I hope you could inspire more people just like myself to build a youtube channel. 😊

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Investing with Kendrick thank you for your kind words and I hope your channel is a great success! Ramin

[@davidfraser1966]

Very informative as ever. You have an amazing ability to be able to summarise and simplify complex financial concepts and theories. Obviously I’d much prefer you to just tell us what to buy and when!! Thank you Ramen.

[@Borat_Kazakh]

What? You mean you haven't heard the novel theory of "buy low, sell high"? I think Marks deserves the Nobel Prize in Economics for his radical ideas. Perhaps we can hire some PhD's in Absract Math from MIT to conjure up turning points in the cycle. Since they have always been correct so many times.

[@tastypymp1287]

That's very bugman thinking, always seeking a guru, always looking to be told what to do. Nothing more convenient than tyranny. Freedom is slavery afterall....

[@NedFlanders39]

Pumping them out recently! thanks for all the free content

[@muffemod]

What a pumpa!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you like it

[@LouisTheTraveler76]

Great review of the Book, Ramin. Here we get clear objective factors that at least give some guidance on buying and selling. If equities fell another 10-15 %, most of the other factors are lining up for buying.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤

[@SKMarcusA]

Thanks for the consistently logical and objective vidoes

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you like them!

[@gT-gi5nr]

Really good content . Thanks!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you liked it!

[@Foogle6594]

I hate the term "lost decade" because it sounds scary, but Investing regular amounts within these "lost decades" gave some of the best returns ever seen. That's because no normal person lump sums all of their money into the market and never contributes again, an investors lifetime is a lot more gradual.

[@supernumex]

I think the concept of the lost decade is more relevant to someone that already has lots invested or nearing retirement say. If most of their assets were in stocks, then the they'd have to wait the decade to be able to access that capital. Of course they can continue to invest during that time, but the gains of the depressed market are far outweighed by the large sum that is in depressed values.

[@XORTION]

Lump sum investing also works though

[@johnristheanswer]

I get your point however they have analysed all this and lump sum does work the same over 30/40 years if not better. Eg a 20 year old with 50k lump sum ( at top of market ) will still do better than that same person dripping in 50k over 30/40 years so I believe.

[@Foogle6594]

@@johnristheanswer yeah no doubt that a lump sum is better (most of the time). But for the average investor it's not an option either way and they will be putting money in monthly.

[@johnristheanswer]

@@Foogle6594 Yep , agrred.

[@HansWurst-zs6zq]

I'm waiting with buying until my grandma starts to tell me how dangerous stock market is.

[@rafaelf6994]

amazing as always

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you! Cheers!

[@AH-wr1ir]

quality content. thank you.

[@Pensioncraft]

You're welcome

[@David-wh7rm]

Really wanted you to explore where we are more in the cycle

[@stephencolvin7819]

Great content Ramin. I wonder whether buying index funds for a country or geographical area that is below the CAPE average is a good investing strategy?

[@Billy-Box]

Great content.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@ldg1414]

This is why I love small caps right now. They've been beaten down for a long time.

[@VegasMilgauss]

Always be buying.

[@BestDividendStocks]

Great analysis 👍🔥✅ So s&p500 will go up ?

[@MorsAquilae]

Great content, very informative. In the future, your videos will have helped thousands financially.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you.

[@tastypymp1287]

Pretty hard to assert that as fact.

[@IncomeBoost42]

The only problem is everyone thinks they’re timing the market right until they aren’t!

[@simon3814]

Ramen great vids thanks. Couple of ideas, I saw a great chart on a platform which tracked the decline in the SP500 on the y axis logarithmic % (all starting from the same point 100 on the y axis) against days on the x axis this gave a very insightful comparison of this SP slump versus other ones from previous bear markets since the 1930's how sharp it has been and length - that would be great to see and get your thoughts on how 2022/3 stacks up against previous bears in the SP 500. Also on the lost decades - what would be the outcome if you bought in at 20% lower on the SP500 in previous bears - how many years until you're in the money would that take and what would have been annual returns in those cases versus what we tend to focus on is peak to trough to peak again ?

[@gabrielnicolassolis]

Such a well of knowledge! Who likes Finance likes Ramin!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks!

[@shellyperera2010]

Thanks for such a clear explanation of the market. It's reassuring to know there are always recoveries after downturns even though it may not seem like it at the time. I'm keeping on investing through it all, staying diversified and thinking long term.

[@paranaueuk]

👍 for the "dark mode"

[@paul_k_7351]

Great video as always but I get confused by your use of the word “drawdown” and keep thinking you are talking about debt! 😅

[@minshum]

Great video as always Ramin but it was Buffett's mentor, Ben Graham who came up with Mr Market and his mood swings. Graham really doesn't get the credit he deserves.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @minshum I used to mention that but didn't this time around. Thanks for pointing it out! Ramin.

[@markwheeler6740]

Thanks aways for your helpful insight

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks

[@johnthompson3530]

Excellent video. That was worth it's weight in gold!! I would have paid for that advice :) Thanks.

[@tastypymp1287]

As it's digital, it weighs literally nothing....

[@Pensioncraft]

Very welcome

[@mirzacandrei5143]

What is your opinion of Black Swan Book by Nassim Taleb. Where he describes that the market is driven by tails risk rather then economic cycles. Would be great if give you perspective on that book. Thank you Ramin!

[@25Soupy]

Looking at the chart it appears we're due for another lost decade. See everyone in 2032.

[@alexm5632]

How about great reset, awn nothing buy 2030, which cycle is that?

[@Desmond.TuTu.]

Ahhhh Howard …. He’s not as funny as his brothers Groucho, Chico and Harpo…

[@sebfox2194]

...but he's funnier than his brother Karl.

[@Casey-Jones]

@@sebfox2194 and funnier than his partner Spencer

[@humanbeing6933]

Let the bankers go to the wolves.. buy gold coins… they are capital gains tax free and a vault costs just 6% of the contents.

[@edwinmarr-wr4pz]

Best British investment/finance channel on KZbin

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you!

[@ryanjackson4597]

NO ONE can predict the market… this is irresponsible