Stock Market Bubble Expert Warns "Things Could Get Bloody Fast" | Jonathan Treussard

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Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late.
The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months.
Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of?
Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instead?
For insight, we're fortunate to speak today with Jonathan Treussard, former partner and head of product at Research Affiliates, and now founder of Treussard Capital Management.
Jonathan, who authored academic research on financial bubbles at UCLA, indeed concludes we are in the midst of another such bubble now.
Follow Jonathan at www.treussard.com
Or email him at [e-mail]
#bubbles #nvidia #nvda
_____________________________________________
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[@adam.taggart]

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[@martintheguitarist]

Finally someone talks sense about this AI hype. I've been waiting for an interview like this for over a year.

[@thomasskowronski2710]

Regarding Nvidia as I read about it, the value is not so much in the gui cards but the software that drives them. Sounds like IBM and Microsoft again.

[@martintheguitarist]

@@thomasskowronski2710 The only software they are selling is drivers to their hardware. NVIDIA is basically just selling shovels to a gold rush but there is yet gold to be found. I work in IT and tested a few commercial AI tools. They were all completely useless.

[@richhands5269]

My three favorite channels: Adam Taggart, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥

[@user-eb3pi4tv9k]

Janet Yellen has done a great job of negating Powell’ efforts, she’s got more power than the Fed and her only job is to get her boss re elected, we all underestimated that.

[@prolific1518]

Political Reserve is doing its part by not raising rates. It hasn't been independent since the GFC.

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

Everything she says is a lie

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

Wow, youtube will not allow calling a politician a liar.

[@slowridefpv9668]

Congress spending packages are endless, Yellen is just doing their bidding.

[@davidfraser1966]

Such a good, interesting and thought provoking interview I listened to it over again. Adam, you’re a genius. Please get Jonathan back on. Thank you both 🙃

[@martinross6416]

I love these comments. The “I missed out on the bull and I’m jumping on the train” is a key indicator of the last stage of the bull. When the skeptics give up and go long who’s left?

[@infraaa_]

exactly. im watching for the bear-iest bears to start capitulating to start adding puts

[@incurableromantic4006]

"who’s left" The trillion dollars a quarter the government is printing and dumping into the economy?

[@rpblankenship]

Yup. Wait for Gayed to capitulate. Then short with max leverage.

[@carefulconsumer8682]

"All my money is tied up in Worldcom, Lucent and WeWork."

[@turtle1211]

The fact that so many comments are dismissive of this talk could be a sign “the pop” is close

[@bruceposch1449]

it's their first rodeo.

[@sumthinfresh]

Or we have heard it for 14 years and would have missed incredible runs if we had listened to every chicken little

[@incurableromantic4006]

Hard to be bearish when everyone who's been bearish for 15 years has got absolutely crushed.

[@ribama1]

Yes I been bearish for 15 years. Thankfully much of my money has been in Real Estate and managed by others . I still bearish maybe I'll die bearish.

[@bruceposch1449]

@@ribama1 I've been bearish for 45 years and done very well financially ...a pessimist never gets "crushed", and then is pleasantly surprised when things are good. Like the old saying...Bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered. There are a lot of hogs today that think they are bulls.

[@margrietlaan8020]

Didn't know Jonathan but he sounds like he knows what he is talking about. I liked this interview! 👍

[@alfred1535]

What is his phone number how can I get in touch with him

[@omanyquestions5135]

His line about existential fear driving things right now rings true to me. I know I'm not the only one who feels pinched & pi*#ed off because I lost 33% of my purchasing power in the last 3-4 years, while the wealth gap currently looks like the Gilded Age. I saved & have a cushion, but it feels like it could get wiped out so easily, & it's so hard to get ahead. I've been on the sidelines & I'll stay there until this bubble pops. My money's in savings @ 4.4%, but I understand the impulse to gamble on stocks & crypto, etc. The playing field is very tilted right now, & desperate times call for desperate measures. Unfortunately, we know how this ends for many retail investors, & it does not end well. And for good measure, the masses will likely get to bail out banks, & businesses who spent too much on buybacks & CEO pay. Anyhow... thank you Adam, for all the great interviews & info you continue to bring us. Incredible help to cut through all the noise & see the picture more clearly.

[@damienmills293]

Neil Howe's "Fourth Turning" thesis is powerful. There is certainly a sense of unreality right now perhaps akin to the sense of the inevitability of war in 1913 or the sense of despair in the mid 1920's. There's something in the aether. So many things in real flux. China's economy is in free-fall. US politics are a true example of absurdism. Europe has gone quiet, cowed by the war in Ukraine and strange pervasive cultural Marxism. It is as though the Gods are holding their breath waiting to see what their Creation is going to do next...

[@LittleOrla]

Best comment. Thanks.

[@robertlehr4702]

Jonathan is a wonderful ‘thoughtful’ guest.

[@johngalliano9859]

This guy is awesome! I was super excited for the last question, & I look forward to researching his answer. Thank you both.

[@pjb6848]

This guy was very interesting. Adam is killin’ it getting guests!

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you for having Jonathan on, brilliant discussion!!

[@Memanfree]

Once we all agree they are wrong, they will be 💯 correct.

[@cairns-holiday-homes]

An interview to watch or listen to again. Very thoughtful and thought provoking. Jonathan is a realist and points out that that we are hardly in a new bull market but well into one. There are all sorts of justifications - FOMO, Ai, strong economy, low real rates etc. The justifications are typical of a market closer to its end than its beginning. At some point we will be talking about FOLLE - Fear Of Losing Literally Everything. Extreme perhaps but so is the US and worldwide debt.

[@lfw3733]

Brilliant discussion! Thx

[@mktwatcher]

A 4 out 5 on a Bubble Scale is pretty dang high. So yes we are in a Bubble with many key economic foundations that are beginning to show a high degree of stress.

[@rogerhorner7431]

Thanks for the brief heads up on structured notes.

[@4000angels]

Great interview as always. Thank you, Adam.

[@beau6732]

Love your show Adam, some the best content on KZbin. ❤ These in depth intelligent and insights are way better than half the garbage vids other creators are putting out. Thanks!!

[@gregbailer8701]

Asteroid vs Dinosaur was the best analogy. The smart species burrowed underground and survived. Sell stocks and buy shovels when you feel the heat...just before you see the "flash". T. Rex

[@timmusick9875]

Great conversation, thank you.

[@ellaschris]

Have a great weekend, Adam brother thanks for all the great guests always eye-opening!

[@eggmackan3353]

One of the best guests u had on lately. Hope to see him again 👍🏻

[@rpblankenship]

Great work gentlemen. Appreciate the insights.

[@DomsPokeMMO-tf4tj]

This guy is great!

[@patrickyim1258]

Nvda revenue is “real” because of Meta paying 5x for their chips, and this craze benefited both Nvda and Meta to the tune of $3T, and Zuck cashed in big time recently.

[@bryanmorrow3146]

Great guest...great interview. Another shot at his views are in order.

[@carefulconsumer8682]

Very good discussion. Thanks.

[@annL5251]

Fantastic guest and interview!

[@user-dy3hz9yf8h]

Great guest Adam! Different perspective appreciated.

[@patticlancy6500]

I love these trippy countdown graphics!

[@scotthodor4292]

Its great to here a Phd sound as smart as youd expect a Phd to be. And so balanced too. Great conversation.

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

43:38 "Crazy things can get way crazier" Well said. This market could get much much crazier. Hyperinflation will go on until everyone is wiped out. Great guest for sticking to good instincts and data

[@briancutsinger]

Great Jonathan!🌞

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@jetstream3528]

100% spot on

[@tonybrooklyn921]

Thanks

[@budstep7361]

Wow, this guy is sharp 😲 Favorite guest yet, great pick Adam 😎

[@turtle1211]

and how did this help make $$? Listening to him in 2023 what have left you high & dry

[@bibibachmd9995]

Excellent!

[@airbourne2]

Thanks!

[@adam.taggart]

Thank you very much!!

[@StockGenius152]

When will people understand that it’s impossible to rationalize an irrational market? Short answer, never, emotions and psychology will rule unless AI takes over 😉

[@infraaa_]

something like 80% of trading activity is already done by algos

[@prolific1518]

​@@infraaa_exactly but people think it's irrational. Algos see the fake data and trade off that. The establishment picks which data it trades off of and ignores the revisions.

[@alekseidemidov6534]

Very reasonable with regards to AI and Nvidia. Would love to hear more regarding overall prospects of different sectors as the Nvidia part was a bit too stretched.

[@sglaser001]

If we had a free market in interest rates and a FED that didn’t engage in money printing beyond GDP growth, I suspect this bubble would have been avoided, the government would have less total debt and the economy would be healthier. Given where we are now, a free market in rates would likely be higher and the equity markets 20-40% lower. This would allow for reasonable future returns. Zombie companies would not have been unable to consume productive capital and not provide value to society.

[@LibertarianRF]

Word

[@echo3527]

You could say the same about health care costs which have driven up expenses for education and employers adding to the problem. Higher education cost leading to young people unable to trade up in housing so the market isn't moving properly.

[@alecvandeleest]

"An open sewer of human psyche" As an avid redditor, you nailed it. And we are proud of it

[@tomdonovan4842]

Good review

[@somehacker9031]

Adam - I think I startled my neighbors with my LOL when you asked about what AI was going to learn from Reddit.

[@riverraven7359]

Racism apparently, AI given internet access tend to go pretty intolerant. Combine that with elons combat robots and you get a neo nazi terminator scenario in no time 😭

[@sk-gi5wy]

Great interview. I wish John would have explained how to sell calls of Fannie Mae mortgages?

[@kavorkafanstar]

When are we going to have someone or multiple interviews about The Great Taking by David Webb? You've mentioned it. I'd love to hear from a financial lawyer to confirm or deny the legal setup he discusses, and other guests on this topic. You have people on that don't think the system or the debt can survive, I agree. I'd like this theory of how it goes down be discussed. Thank you. I love your work, majority of guests, and opinions on this would be appreciated.

[@HiggyBaby0U812]

Great interview. I started this today and could not turn it off.

[@RWROW]

Please consider a session that explains "liquidity": the different definitions, how it is measured per the different definitions, why "it" matters, etc.

[@adam.taggart]

This video is pretty much what you say you're looking for: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eaiXoIOEd9V2btksi=8_PLtovpDxfWs2Bo

[@markusbaumgartner181]

Time in the market beats timing the market.

[@bigpicturethinking5620]

Except for the people who just get in right before a big drop. But overall statistically yes.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Forecasting is all about timing.

[@henrykennedy457]

This guy could do chairman powell impersonations.

[@dl777]

Great interview. How does one easily invest in government-backed mortgages?

[@Hanginglimbs1]

that is an all time great scrunch

[@Notaslave1961]

Dirextions has individual stocks of the mag seven in double long etfs what happens when they reverse

[@agsmith001]

i think you guys were talking about JEPI 🤔

[@donmarek7001]

I have my eye on some things I would like to buy, but not at these prices. I'd like to see a 15% to 20% hit. Otherwise, it's short term CDs for me for now.

[@Hanginglimbs1]

"what is the risk of recession?" - according to Jeff Snider and Steve Van Metre, we've been in a recession for 37 years

[@eugenefirebird8938]

If the GDP and inflation statistics were real, that is the case. That is why the USA standard of living is way way way down from the 1970s -- when only one income could support a family.

[@Casey-rr7th]

Excellent content as usual!

[@mattm597]

I would love to see the market plummet (correct). I'm still years away from retirement, and I'm ready to start buying!!

[@adriandesousa1590]

I found you again!!

[@edreeves121]

The uhs, uhms and ya knows are back. Great interview.

[@sumthinfresh]

uh. um, soooo, monologue, pause, um

[@darrenhere5856]

5 customers represent more than 2/3 of their revenue but AI will save market... "Zoom has opted to add artificial intelligence features into its premium video-calling plans at no additional cost."

[@Adam-ey3ud]

Nvda is cheaper than Tesla but yes your guest is correct. The margins are unbelievable at some point that can’t be sustained

[@DramaQueen-im8qm]

"I do not have a bearish bias." --Adam Taggart, quoted in LOL Magazine

[@fhowland]

Love the channel, but jeeze, all bears lately! They were saying the same thing a year ago..if you listened to them you would've missed out on ~40% of gains.

[@TheGutz430]

lol, I did listen to them and I did miss out on the gains. Hell, I sold NVDA a year ago 🤦🏻‍♂️. Yet I’m still here listening to Adam, perhaps waiting for him to be right. Thank you Sir, may I have another?

[@fhowland]

@@TheGutz430 yeah .. I was too much in short term treasuries but didn’t sell any S&P thank god. I did about 20% last year versus 27% for the S&P

[@johnbirman5840]

I’m 50% BitCoin/ 50% Navidia. Am I diversified enough?

[@eugenefirebird8938]

Buy bottles of air. They are worth more than BC scam.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

😂🤣🤣 No, you should probably add some NFTs of an ape or something.

[@kennethcamp8730]

Please take the time to ask all your guests about the sustainability of government debt.

[@sumthinfresh]

If you look at the charts the Dow was down in 2022 which mirrored 2009. We had the dip. Bullish🐂

[@user-qs1jt3hc8f]

Nvidia was down 68% in 2022 from the peak

[@mOYNTdnbzso]

My brother in law advised me to get in before the whole shithouse goes up in flames. I paid him 2.50% for this advice. Epic move on my part.

[@davidcollins8150]

The reversal will happen in the debt market first according to another source

[@francisravenscroft-dw6gi]

AI cant fix humans irrational urges- like investing in 'implausible reality'

[@RobertLewandowski-vi6mq]

Don't buy the dip as they ask

[@Marcus1954s]

You have to listen carefully to the subtleties in his choice of words. Will revisit this a second time.

[@thach0x0]

He has missed the most unprecedented bull run on the tech /Nvedia regardless of the future concern.

[@Bruhne]

Strong economy huh? All I see are people being priced out of markets.

[@RobertLewandowski-vi6mq]

How's that sandwich working for you

[@davidcollins8150]

Been trying to get in front of the train wreck by shorting the elevated market. As a result, I am missing a leg - metaphorically speaking

[@tomadkins9057]

The skepticism toward Nvidia maintaining a global monopoly is doubly justified when you consider that every major government in the world is throwing money at semiconductors right now.

[@Wachoviagreed]

TSLA is down 50% but you also forgot they did a 3:1 stock split. So net effective, they’re up ~35% the last two years.

[@bossu2005]

Turned it off when he said "The Economy is Strong"

[@johnweibel1128]

Adam. Enjoy your guests. But if you ever book Don Lemon, I'm outta here!

[@notgunnadoit7461]

Adam I have a serious question for you. "What do you think of the current state of the global economy?" lol just kidding. But seriously when is SILVER going to start out performing gold? Today I watched gold hit another new all time high. While silver is still flat lagging and down. I'm a major physical silver holder and averaged down to around $14 per ounce over the past decade. Yes it's double for me on paper and I'm happy about that but silver historically should at least 10x as gold heads toward $3k. Watching the silver miners is just incredible to me.

[@futonfave]

I have wondered the same thing and I have come to the conclusion that silver was money back in the 1960's and is remembered as being a currency/money by the Boomers (me) But the new breed of investors just sees it as the same as iron ore or copper. It is industrial metal at best now. Bitcoin/cryptos have replaced as a place for 30-45 yr olds to put their next bet.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Silver typically moves 6 months after gold.

[@echo3527]

Finding an entry point on equities in this market is so tough right now. If you feel strongly, 70%+ about the direction on a stock 1) determine how much you are willing to lose and multiply by two. 2) Take that amount and set a 50% stop loss on the position. This way you have plenty of wiggle room for movement and will never lose more than your max loss (most likely far less). Always right size your speculative trades. I make trades with 70%, 90% and 100% probability of success.

[@brucehecht4984]

Bad example on structured notes. There are really good S&P 500 structured notes, but you have to pick the right ones. I shoot for unlimited upside, leveraged 20-30% upside to make up for no dividend yield, 30-35% downside protection, with the underlying issuer being very financially strong, like JPM

[@MattMatusiak]

I wonder what will happen to ETFs when the bulls run for the exits

[@insomniactravels6185]

Burst of a bubble requires a pin, AKA Black Swan event,--which is unpredictable. Until it happens, discussions about valuation have no meaning because investors clearly don't care about valuations.

[@incurableromantic4006]

"valuation have no meaning because investors clearly don't care about valuations" Truth - at the moment there's no logic other than money-printing and a return to ultra-low interest rates.

[@randy74989]

@@incurableromantic4006 Read this and recalibrate your expectations about P/E and stock valuations: Note: From Sean O’Hara, president of Pacer ETFs Distributors: “The world has changed. We’re not a manufacturing-based society anymore. We’re basically a consumption-based, health-care-based, technology, communication services, and brand-based economy here in the United States, and moving that way across the world as well.” ”The majority of the U.S. stock market’s market value in the ’70s could be attributed to tangible assets-things you can see, touch, feel, pick up and put a price tag on-and that’s good for traditional price-to-book investing. But today, 90% of the stock market’s value is based on intangibles.” “In a world where you can’t point to physical assets anymore, you have to find a different metric. That’s how we stumbled upon free cash flow and free cash flow yield.” “We think traditional growth is as flawed as traditional value. The metric that most people look at for growth investments is sales growth. The research we have tells us that sales growth by itself does not necessarily equal stock market performance. It’s only profitable sales growth that matters, so we use free cash flow margin as the screen.” If you are worried about valuations then de-risk your portfolios and invest accordingly. I diversify across the World with Equity ETFs, FDIF, HERD, and AVGE along with other individual stocks, and two intermediate-term Bond ETFs plus of course a large "Margin of Safety" in T-Bill ETFs and a money market fund for risk mitigation. I also have VCAR, iBit, and FBTC for alpha. I have a taxable account for my RMD annual withdrawals and have a short-term MUNI ETF and money market fund in it for emergencies and tax-free and AMT-free monthly income from the SMB Muni ETF. 🤔

[@Tential1]

16:00 this is how I know you're new to Nvidia. You see a massive price hike, and you think it's temporary. You're new here dude. Nvidia does this every year.... They had 30% Revenue growth historically for a reason. Again, do these people not have a Bloomberg terminal?

[@chrislovell7448]

New Harbor Financial...."you're fired!"

[@holdenc3082]

Are they still calling for S&P 1800? Lots of us remember.

[@Tential1]

21:41 yes, you guys always pick the top in hindsight and say "ha, see, the stock didn't break all time highs". What about when tesla was between 10-80 and you were saying it was overvalued?

[@graemetunbridge1738]

The 'China problem' is not just 'these chips getting into China' - they just aren't interesting enough to be difficult to replicate.

[@briangemmet3567]

The market is waiting for everyone to get long and once the last guy gets in it will rug pull all of us, hard to know when the market will decide enough people are long to pull the floor out but I feel like we’re getting close, maybe 🤔

[@practicingparents]

I’m sorry to say this so bluntly, because I like Adam and his guests, and I appreciate the intellectual discussion. However, if you were to invest almost exactly opposite to the overwhelming advice on this channel, you would be making big dollar! 😂

[@adam.taggart]

Well, I had Michael Howell on 2 weeks ago who's bullish on the markets. Just recorded one (out next Tues) with Ed Yardeni who has a 3 year bullish outlook. Had Bob Elliot on a month ago who is very bullish on the US economy.I also have Darius Dale coming back on soon, who when on last time said he was as bullish as he'd ever been. So I am trying to get a variety of viewpoints on the show. That said...the fact that so many of the data-driven analysts who come on this program are concerned about today's valuations should not be dismissed lightly.

[@practicingparents]

Thanks for your response, Adam. I appreciate those aforementioned guests (who I’ve enjoyed on your channel immensely), and I’d include Sven in there, too. A diversity of opinion is what makes a market, so I’m glad that we can have these debates. I think it’s fair to say, however, that you and your channel present as having a bearish outlook. Maybe it will all end horribly, but if you’ve been short the market over the last 18 months you’ve lost a lot of money, and if you stayed on the sidelines, you’ve missed a tremendous move. Keep up the great work though; I love the thought and intellect, and you do a great job asking questions and moderating the discussion 👌🙏🏼

[@sumthinfresh]

@@adam.taggart but it has been 95% bearish on this channel and the previous for 18 months. Even when you have a bull on the title of the video has a bearish spin. I understand caution but don't fall prey to Schiffism. He has been bearish since 2006. What's worse is he can't say he was wrong

[@friendlychat34]

Bros furrowed brow deeper than the Mariana trench

[@sauermaischeyahoo7834]

The railway was going to change the world, it did change the world, but many of those who speculated in the railway stock boom lost their shirts. The internet was going to change the world, it did change the world, but many of those who speculated in the internet stock boom lost their shirts. Artificial intelligence is going to change the world...

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Bingo... and you can probably say the same with the Blockchain and crypto.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Timing is everything.

[@richardwerszner1970]

Lovely boy

[@Diatom1k]

NOOOO, REALLY??