NVDA Wreaks Havoc on Technology Benchmark

06.18.24: Final Bar host David Keller, CMT celebrates Nvidia's rise to overtake Microsoft (MSFT) as the largest company by market cap, creating chaos in the Technology Sector ETF (XLK) with implications for Apple (AAPL). He points out that 10% of the S&P 500 members made new 52-week highs today, and breaks down the charts for ITB, LEN, BALL, CNC, TT, EXR, and CAH.
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00:00 - Intro
01:03 - Market Recap
04:15 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)
09:51 - NVIDIA (NVDA)
14:07 - Home Builders, Lennar (LEN), iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB)
17:50 - Ball (BALL), Centene (CNC)
20:15 - Trane Technologies (TT), Extra Space Storage (EXR)
22:05 - Cardinal Health (CAH)
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[@marcojuarez3358]

Thanks Dave for posting great content as always, have a great holiday.

[@vaughnmcguire5214]

Great content as always. Great haircut too Dave!

[@DKellerCMT]

Thanks and thanks! ✂ D

[@titusrider7948]

"This one goes to twelve" 🤯 unbelievable!

[@DKellerCMT]

Seriously. D

[@titusrider7948]

@@DKellerCMT Perhaps Thursday's 'Housing Starts & Unemployment Claims' numbers will bring it back to a comfortable "Ten" ?

[@Christopher.Capital]

So it could be best to take out, or NOT include dividends when looking for Support/Resistance levels, Dave? I've always looked at both, and have played around with that, to see what looks right. I think I may have found w/o dividends better in most cases, but not sure it's had black n white clarity...? But your experience says to not incl. dividends, yeah? Thank you

[@PE-TX]

Great review Dave and thanks for the XLK allocations explanation!

[@DKellerCMT]

Happy to help! D

[@solaron99]

Hi Dave, great analysis! What's that DIY yt subscriber counter you got there in the background?

[@StockChartsTV]

It's a Tidbyt.

[@solaron99]

@@StockChartsTV Thank you! 😊

[@mikem2492]

Thank You

[@DKellerCMT]

Thanks so much for watching! D

[@turki-0939]

hi ,thanks ,what's your thoughts about Microsoft $MSFT stock do you thinks its right now overbought

[@DKellerCMT]

Overbought? Yes. Overextended? Yes. Still going higher? YES. D

[@anandrao3651]

So Dave no longer mentions the McClellan Oscillator despite it now being negative 19 straight trading days (most in 2024)?

[@DKellerCMT]

Still watching it every day! Still negative. D

[@humbertohumberto4978]

what is the device David has on his desk?

[@DKellerCMT]

It's called a Tidbyt and it's pretty awesome. D

[@BigErnieBrown]

🎼 It's going up the rails on a crazy train"

[@DKellerCMT]

Great lyric to describe this frothy market environment!! 🎸 D

[@1309gsk]

the idea is to make money whether xlk gives or soxl........ave a good one............................wish you the best

[@machoheadgames8854]

I'm probably being too sensitive but seems like the titles/thumbnails are getting a bit clickbait-y.

[@DKellerCMT]

Things we have to do to get the video promoted within the KZbin ecosystem! Hopefully my straightforward and brilliant analysis compensates for that. :) D

[@tanleproe]

XLK wants to be like SMH, which is the best performing ETF that already has 23.3% of Nvidia and none of Apple. QQQ and Vanguard ETFs have fair weighted percentages. Time will tell. GL

[@DKellerCMT]

The more you learn about benchmark weightings, the more ridiculous you realize it actually is. D

[@tanleproe]

The same case will apply to Broadcom after it splits on July 12

[@hassann.mugisha6084]

Nvdia , 1000£ after the split , I'm so pumped for this. All is good, AI will take over everything, we are in this forever. No correction soon 😅I'm so happy for the nvdia it's going to be the only stock to be worthy 10T worthy 3x the stock market of England and 1x the size of the Chinese capital market. We are all. Happy. My prediction is unemployment will fall and we will rally to 7000 on snp , and 27000 for nasdq , and 3000 on small xaps

[@KimTran-vt8mf]

Don’t pump too high next month NVDA go to $100 don’t cry 😭😭😭

[@co1972]

NVDA $300 by the end of the year seems EASY! $500 is a stretch goal, but VERY POSSIBLE! NVDA $1,000 by the end of 2025... EASY! 😎👍

[@DKellerCMT]

WARNING! This comment may not age well. D

[@anandrao3651]

$1000/share would make it a $30 trillion company. I would say anything less than $100 trillion ($3300/share) is being conservative

[@rogermalouf7685]

So, what are your credentials to back up your opinion?

[@jackd.]

Really? You may want to have your eyes checked if you still don't see the bubble.

[@DKellerCMT]

I see plenty of bubble characteristics, have no fear. D

[@jackd.]

@@DKellerCMT I'm a New Yorker, fear's my life.

[@nickzivs]

Unfortunately, irrational exuberance doesn't mean correction/crash. The market and participants/animal spirits can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent. Source: I've been a bear trying to pick tops before and it can be extremely painful.