When U.S. Stocks Crash, These Assets Will Soar | Louis-Vincent Gave

These are the "anti-fragile" assets that will protect investors against structural changes never before seen, according to Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal.
Interview with David Hay: • ‘Biggest bubble in his...
*This video was recorded on April 11, 2023.
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0:00 - Intro
1:38 - Market outlook
11:20 - Interest rates
13:54 - Structural changes
15:42 - Inflation
23:00 - Emerging markets
33:00 - Energy
39:00 - Gavekal
#investing #economy #markets

[@ShockJock]

My god, this man is a genius. Amazing interview!

[@daveforgot127]

Your genius didn't even mentioned vacancy rates in office.

[@patricklexima9520]

​@@daveforgot127 never happy, huh?

[@Phila80]

The problem is inflation and real wages. Since 1978 wages have fallen behind inflation between 270% and 300%. Interest rates need to be high and asset prices need to collapse. I would rather pay $100,000 for a home at 6% interest rate than pay for the same home at $200,000 with a 3% interest rate, especially when real wages are in line with a $100,000 home. Real estate and cars use the same scam sales approach. Sell an overpriced asset with a low interest rate. With cars it used to be 0 interest rates. High interest rates represents a strong economy vs wages.

[@VenturiLife]

Because it's self evident

[@SuperSavageSpirit]

One of the best financial channels on youtube

[@helenbrooks4787]

With the bonus of lots of con artists advertising in his comment section.

[@SuperSavageSpirit]

@Helen Brooks yes youtube is that way on a lot of channels nowadays unfortunately

[@BlueWaterSTAX]

Thanks for having Louis on the David Lin Report. We appreciate the awesome content. I agree Gold, is my number one safety play.👍🥇🥈🥇🥈🥇🥈🥇🥈🥇🥈

[@fredfrond6148]

I think Louis’ assertions, which I agree with, point to copper. In my opinion.

[@dumbcat]

"Divide your investments into seven, or even eight parts, because you never know what misfortune will happen." Ecclesiastes 11,2

[@demri123]

Very sharp guy

[@MrMelrays]

Haven’t watched Kitco since you left. Great progress.

[@tlebryk]

Exactly what we need to hear at this point in the cycle. Great interview.

[@LukeLoewen]

Excellent interview. Really interesting perspective. And not boring! Not afraid to clearly state his opinion which Is a little bit rare I find. Mr Lin I have to say if nothing else the quality of your guests and your ability to ask the pertinent questions makes your channel a must watch. 👍

[@jtrealfunny]

I just found my way back to this guy. He's making the point about corporate rates not really 'blowing out' yet, maybe in banking but not in general." and that "in most regions central banks are adding liquidity" and "the availability of money is more important to me than the price of money." Really good points. I'm trying to fit this with the past 3 weeks. 12:57 he's pointing out all the liquidity was in the US so "all the excesses and crazy stuff was in the US, FTX, GameStop, BBY, all the stupid stuff took place in the US, and I don't think that's been completely wrought out yet." Take it from the man. He sees wages staying high because of demographic shortage of labor. From his global perspective he expects inflation to stay high and jobs to stay strong and is waiting for real pain in the markets. 19:30 Great point about a smart french guy observing that governments ALWAYS use monetary policy to do their dirty work because it gives them cover. These smart guys with the global perspective often have a little more to give than the domestic guys. 20:30 I see my job as a money manager as not to predict but to adapt. "What I am seeing today is a fiscal situation in the US that is ugly, the financial situation in the US is deteriorating, and the only thing the fed can do about this is inject more money and that is exactly what they are doing. They are selling off the US dollar." 33:50 On owning energy in a slowing environment, "I own energy for another reason, in an inflationary environment bonds no longer act as equity diversification. What does act as equity diversification is energy."

[@markperl5900]

Another great guest. Another great set of questions. IMHO, you have one of the most credible financial education channels on the Internet. Many thanks to you, David. I learn more about the world around me with every interview. 🤝🏻

[@TheDavidLinReport]

Thank you!

[@helenbrooks4787]

Plus many crypto con men in the comment section.

[@markperl5900]

@@helenbrooks4787 I'm sure you're wise enough to spot the snake-oil salesmen coming.

[@alexandretricaud347]

Thanks Louis, it's great to invite a Gave family member. His father is famous here in france.

[@tramnguyen-ze7ie]

Strongly agree with Mr Louis and love David ❤

[@christophermartinet7628]

David, just wanted to say I love your interviews. TY for the content and grateful you're out there asking the right questions.

[@toddsellars4694]

Another good show. Now David - please do a follow-up video to this one in 10 months. Verify and confirm Louis-Vincents's "claims". And see how accurate" he is. The same can be done for all your guests. This will add tremendous value to your channel, placing your channel head and shoulders above all others.

[@goonaa6924]

I second that ! Closely monitoring Cathy Wood, Gareth Soloway, Harry Dent, Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki , Raoul Pal and Jim Rickards before I make my move. All great minds in the 'space'. They all, by and large, supposedly have access to the same information - so just biding my time over coming months to see who calls the 'big change coming' correctly !

[@fredfrond6148]

Louis Vincent Gave is the only guy that can intergrade both Eastern and western economies into a coherent model of what is happening in the world. Gold, energy and foreign bonds are Louis’ choices. For the record I count tesla as an energy company and btc as a foreign currency. While I still hold a couple of big dividend oils companies I also hold tesla. The other choice which is my biggest holding is copper miners. The switch to renewables is gonna be big and copper is gonna be front and Center.

[@benheyward9057]

David that was a awesome interview

[@ag7279]

I have been learning a lot with your show. Great content 👍

[@dwaynediesel6079]

Great Job David. Keep up the good work ! One question i would have liked ot aks is how do we buy these foreign bonds directly? Do they have a comparable fed direct that we can purchase from ?

[@MR-MasterLuna2020]

This guy rocks . Thoughtful and communicates his ideas well. Cheers men. 👍🏻

[@runningboy4761]

I would like to hear more insights on the emerging market. This is an area not covered a lot so far and definitely worth digging in this year.

[@daneedwards8636]

Love this guy...have him on again plz..."im not paid to forecast "...AMAZING

[@cresleyc5391]

41:58 In fact Mauritius has always been an offshore solution for the western world, specially US, but few people know that. Wealthy people fund use this frontier to avoid taxes.

[@edwardk3]

This content is refreshing and well researched.

[@Navgator9]

Well balanced interview. David the F in soften is usually silent.

[@regulartxdude7813]

you mean the "T" in soften is silent.

[@Navgator9]

@@regulartxdude7813 oh ya! LOL😂

[@cjb8993]

Don't count long dated treasuries out. A good proxy, TLT, EDV or ZROZ. As rates collapse in the coming months/year, the long end of the curve will explode in price so to maximize convexity, go long. Lots of money pent up on short end of the curve, chasing treasuries and CD's in the one year maturity space or say 4.5% or so. That feels good now, but I'd rather go get 3% on a long dated bond that has as much as 50% price appreciation ahead of it. Yes, TLT projects to $150 in the coming couple of years, that's a MASSIVE gain if things shake out as I think they will.

[@fish.jockey516]

How many people do you think this interview is going to help? Crushing it as always David

[@salvationalamode3798]

Excellent speaker. Enjoyed the talk.

[@farmerdude3578]

This guy was great. Thank you both.

[@allenkim9288]

Thank you David. Newbie asking for some advice. He suggests 15% of a portfolio in energy. I believe this guy’s thesis. Can anyone share some suggestions of things I can buy? Emerging Market Bonds, Energy Stocks were things he mentioned....I love the conversation...but I would love actionable things I could look into :).

[@799jmartin]

Great job on the interview for both of you!!!

[@gy4148]

Great conversation! Thank you to you and Mr Gave! 🔝

[@dave8212]

Awesome guest! - thanks to you both 👍💛

[@rockytop6077]

People... please understand markets can crash straight up just like many countries are now doing. Example Venezuela, turkey, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and etcetera. Look at precious metals in Venezuela. ... gold is practically no ask? Meaning it's like 4 gazillion bolivars. Unattainable there wouldn't you say? Their stock market boomed with no purchase power whatsoever. Chew on that awhile and maybe I need to create a channel cause nobody discusses these points.

[@ryanmoe5302]

Fabulous interview and great to hear something from outside the u.s. further drives the nail into the post about diversity out of the dollar.

[@c7t1consulting87]

Absolutely STELLAR interview

[@TheRocksCookin]

David I'm getting addicted to these shows, love your work man, this guy was interesting!

[@robreid6195]

Great point about hedging against recession with energy stocks.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Why do people think you need lower rates they need to go up another double from 4.5 to 9

[@muratuslu1770]

quality guests! great work.! Thank you

[@Garce227]

🎉 Brilliant interview. So easy to follow and just alpha.

[@stumpy25lbs]

Excellent guest! 🙏🏼🙏🏼

[@ahndeux]

I think he is dead wrong on some issues. The fed interest may not affect HIM as much because he has access to the money, but for the regular people who has to pay more for loans and credit cards, it has a big impact. The regular joe blows are suffering deeply with the rate hikes and we don't have access to the easy liquidity that Louis has. The banks are tightening lending standards, so the availability of money is even worse. I also think he is wrong to think the feds won't reverse and lower rates at the end of this year or early next year. The SVB contagion is not going away. It was fueled by the rate hikes both in the US and foreign markets. That is why there is a big push by banks to snatch up short term US treasuries as collateral and some of the bids went as low as 0% in the past few weeks. That is not a sign of a stable financial market. I feel like he is out of touch because his specialty is in the Asian markets, especially China and Hong Kong. The Asian markets will still do better than the US market in the long run, but during a deep recession, they will be impacted just as much. US is a very mature market while some of the untapped Asian markets still has a lot more future upside. China will have their own set of problems to deal with especially with their hyperinflated real estate market and population decline in the next two decades.

[@mint-tedpreciousmetals7735]

Investing is not for the “regular joe blows” . The advice by any of these guests, is for people who have means to invest.

[@ahndeux]

@@mint-tedpreciousmetals7735 That is a silly statement. Even if you have $2M to invest, you won't have the same access to money that Louis has.

[@mint-tedpreciousmetals7735]

@@ahndeux why was it silly?

[@ahndeux]

Its silly to presume investing is not for the "regular joe blows". Even "regular joe blows" have a 401K account. The average joe may not short stocks with margin account or buy/sell options, but they are investors by buying index funds, bonds, etc using their retirement money. My statement that Louis has access to money which most of us don't have have still stands.

[@mint-tedpreciousmetals7735]

@@ahndeux I didn’t state he didn’t have access to more than the general public? Where did I state this? Furthermore yes a 401k account which they often have no idea what it is invested in etc and have no control over it. a 401k account is not what I was referring too in regards to investing. Long term value investing with an active portfolio which you manage and also you make a living off of investing, such as myself. We don’t have to work a job our investments and money work for us.

[@PFlow007]

Awesome guest...

[@chrispadilla1582]

Another great guest here. More truth tellers

[@SonGoku_dk57]

Great Insight! I wonder what has he left unsaid..?

[@JimWemm-ql1ge]

Thankyou!

[@Anamericanhomestead]

The PPT will not allow stocks to crash. At least not outside of a certain parameter.

[@edouardd2861]

Top quality guest !!

[@ceegee4875]

1) David I love your style of interview glad to see you start your own channel 2) I largely agree with your guest but my only question would be: why should we believe the recent credit data coming out of china? I personally don't. I never do but it feels especially different this time. Im not sure why.

[@ceegee4875]

I just want to reiterate how thoughtful, insightful and instinctual your guest seems to me. And also I want to take a guess at what seems different to me about china this time is that the world bank seems to be circling the wagons as it relates to china and the non performing loans extended to poor nations. That's just my gut feeling.

[@mardiv8614]

Excelent interview, very clear Mr. Gave

[@last-life]

I like this interview.

[@guillofm]

great interview, great questions! as usual

[@Jerry-hs9pp]

Great interview and all the insights from your guest !

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Great guest David...thank you.

[@rumcoke9123]

Id buy Russian shares if I could. The only one someone can buy is Polymetal but it trades in the UK and not 1 Canadian broker will allow you to buy it.

[@edwardtucker8219]

Great guest, David! I love the new channel. Get someone on who is using AI to predict prices. Bald Guy Money - Roger Hambleton - already did a video on AI predicting the price of silver. Maybe you and he can do AI on various investments and we can see where it goes.

[@moyrawoodward2291]

No mention was made of South Africa - does that not feature as an emerging market to consider?

[@kalvin1123]

Is there a stock index to buy that invests in the assets he's saying?

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Risks are out there but with psychology past 13 years with zero rates it has yet set in to people that the bubble is bigger then 2008 by 10 times. It will unravel huge but may take to 2027.

[@neutralobservation9418]

Thank you for this upload.

[@s.d.crockett486]

Great interview

[@DavidG-mp8kt]

Great stuff David 🎉

[@douglasthompson9482]

Very interested in the interview. I believe that he is very accurate. I am not at all threatened by a growing electric vehicle implementation. Petroleum will be here for many decades to come. President Biden or other world leaders are trying to sell the impossible dream presently. Gradually change will happen but in my lifetime, oil is here to stay. Energy, gold, silver, etc are definitely in vogue for today’s investor.

[@sebastianburnaz6760]

It is an extraordinary interview! What a crystal clear mind!

[@johnaustria7649]

Very interesting, valuable and logic view of Louis-Vincent Gave! Please David invite him more often!

[@Peter-MH]

Energy stocks are not a no-brainier imo - at least in develops markets, as they’re a sitting duck for windfall taxes. Already seen BP and Shell get hit, and there’ll be more to come!

[@CosmicSeeker69]

Just remember, when Louis says that the S+P will be down slightly @ EoY - that 'value' is in USD. So, what real term value the dollar by December 31st?

[@kidMclean]

That is one clever chap, absolutely loved this show

[@garyworthington840]

Thanks!

[@downdog70]

Keep this guy coming back - great interview.

[@remyruff]

One of the most intelligent conversations. Thank you.

[@jackskal4302]

this is the best conversation so far. Mr Gave sounds like a man i could hear him talk everyday.

[@luizamorim1626]

Louis-Vincent is really cerebral !!!❤

[@thorstentrapp274]

Smart guy. Really good interview.

[@Ravi-Singh-001]

Go long brother.

[@d7r_tv]

Solid guest. 🫡

[@datboi449]

with a worker deficit that will keep growing due to demographics, interest rates may be around for a while if unemployment is going to be the trigger for a cut

[@jschreiber6461]

He is right oil demand will always be there, but the cure for high oil prices, is high oil prices! So it might just briefly hit $150… maybe… for a day, before OPEC responds. They have to, otherwise their demand will die or switch. US aircraft carriers are nuclear powered, although everything else is oil powered. EM rely on cheap oil, if that’s not there they WILL switch to cheap locally made EVs, they already do that with e-motor bikes & rikshaws. Commodity metals however, do not have a substitute. Copper is copper, the only better conductor is silver, and that’s not happening! Steel is steel, as is aluminium

[@daveforgot127]

Would love to hear about his opinion on France right

[@jasonport2907]

Monsieur Gave is mistaken. Energy is now about 10% of the S&P 500, not 4%. 4% is old data, from 2022.

[@tgwtom]

Russell Clark focuses on capital vs labor in many of his varied talks. He would be a fantastic guest as is Louis .

[@EMan-cu5zo]

How do you buy into some of these countries?

[@SebastienMauroyPhoto]

I recommend to check out mr Gave's father. Charles Gave. This gentleman is a human encyclopedia of economics. Don't be lazy, practice your French😅

[@MateuszGrudzienPL]

I see Louis, I upvote

[@vcash1112]

Brazilian stocks looking tasty!

[@RichardPeterShon]

won't the surviving bank stocks initially drop from the trend and soar back up again?

[@GapBahnDirk]

Prof. Hanke talked about the money supply tightening and Louis says that the money supply is increasing again. Who do we believe?

[@michaelvittori8525]

I believe it's increasing but not as much as it was, so that makes them both right I guess, hehe.

[@GapBahnDirk]

@@michaelvittori8525 I'm baffled....

[@fengjikangqiang]

Ya I notice his different interpretation from the professor. If professor is right, M2 contracting leading to recession, so market is positioning for a recession, if this Louis guy is right, market is positioning for an inflation.

[@gringadoor5385]

Well done finding Bruce Banner in a good and talkative mood.

[@MrJuanete12]

"China, where I spend most of my time looking" says it all...

[@papaluvspi]

Brilliant

[@davidcollins8150]

Tell me exactly, why is Labor gaining an advantage over Capital bad?

[@centurione6489]

Chinese bonds?! ... I can't think of a more unsecure, unprotected asset.

[@anthonykarakas6391]

Its interesting that of the three sectors Louis mentioned, Bitcoin was not one of them..

[@gregspeth7910]

Which asset, I must have missed that part

[@daveforgot127]

Excellent point about the labor there's a lot of people that are baby boomers are leaving the job. That's a factor that no one is talking

[@UltimateBargains]

Jim Rickards recommends Productive Real Estate, Bullion Gold, and Investment Grade Fine Art.

[@mpireone]

Doesn't Aircraft Carriers run on nuclear power, which can run for about 20 years?

[@daveswita5483]

Just a great shoe central wisconsin 41 F Rain Got the old wood stove crank up and Shooter Jennings { WALK OF LIFE ] 10-4

[@googleuser2594]

China's economy is in very dire situations now facing collapse. It's hard to believe that the guest who is an emerging market expert doesn't know it. So why did he recommend Chinese stocks now? How much of his portfolio is currently in Chinese stocks?

[@matriximaster]

It is amazing how many people do not understand that we are l in an inflationary environment like no other. SHORTAGES and energy policy are the main drivers of inflation, not monetary policies. Raising rates will never correct thus problem. The incompetence of experts is destroying the world.