Supply of NEW HOME Inventory Skyrockets - Home Builders Taking a Bath!

[@jonathantaylor6926]

There is no housing shortage. But there is a huge affordability shortage. You can only lock out first-time home buyers for so long before you have real problems. First-time home buyers usually represent 35 to 50% of all sales and they are critical to the industry. Now only 24% of homes are sold to a first-time buyer and that percentage continues to decline.

[@shanerogers9386]

Correct. We have a flipper and investor epidemic with shortage is just a marketing campaign.

[@rathelmmc3194]

Exactly. First time buyers live in apartments or with their parents and believe it or not they can do those two things indefinitely.

[@billfunk3168]

People 40 years old and younger only 10 per cent of home owners.

[@Member3285]

If you look at houses on the market in the USA, we consistently have less than 1 house available to buy per 100 people for several years. Since 2020 that 'number of homes on the US market' per capita did rise from 3 homes per 1000 people to 5 homes per 1000 people, but that is hardly growth. These statisticians are saying things like, "5 homes is a significant increase over 3 homes", but they don't tell you that there are still over 995 people homeless or renting, that might buy a home except that none are available. In the USA, we have had a 42% decrease in available home supply since 2008. In Canada, they had a 24% decline in available housing since 2008, and their available homes on the market has declined from 150 homes per 1000 people, down to 120 homes per 1000 people, since 2020. The biggest difference between US and Canadian realty market is banking bailouts. The USA bails out its banks, and it causes inflation spikes, followed by market crashes. Bailouts are partly due to the exploitative nature of large investing trends like 'preferred stocks' making a run on the market, but the real estate market is different than the market run phenomena. Realty inflation is caused by money lenders, instead of investors. More than half of citizens in the USA earn below $38k. No, not according to 'average or median' published labor incomes, but according to the number of actual individual incomes in the USA (regardless of type). Our 'median home value' is a far cry from what a person can afford on a $38k income. Our 'affordability' goal line is not even in the same ballpark as the homes we buy.

[@matthill2957]

Me and my girlfriend are first time home buyers we are 29 and 27. We make 100k a year after taxes. Our hometowns average household income is 70k and we are struggling to find a home thats not above 25% of our income and we live in the St Louis metro east on the illinois side.

[@marylandhousingmarket]

Great information and love the graphs!

[@PS5820-wv7kk]

Thanks for the update! Great content. It's awesome that you list your references allowing everyone to look at the data themselves.

[@SachsRealty]

Thank you!

[@jaro9890]

Top-notch video! Great information and presentation. Even the new dress shirt looks much better on you than the polo shirt 🙂

[@SachsRealty]

Thank you.

[@ELDEREDTUCKERJR]

Love to see this happening! Nothing in the pipe line to stop it!

[@ZBREHoldings]

Love to see what? Prices still rising at least where im at lol

[@ELDEREDTUCKERJR]

Not only has housing cost risen to an insane amount, property taxes are insane as well as natural gas, propane, utilities, insurance, and repairs! If you do the math, and add up all the cost to own a home let’s say you live in it for 30 year, all you get when you sell it, is all the money you put in it back, to live in it! with current housing cost, inflation, interest rates, utility’s, taxes, maintenance cost, etc… you can’t duplicate or even upgrade from what you just sold!!! Your equity is being eaten up by greed, and an overpriced economy! The government is like a giant prophylactic, it tells you are protected, while it screws you!!!You are better off to rent, save your money, and invest! Common sense, and Reality!!!

[@davidlivesay6948]

Thank you, Todd! Always appreciate your videos!!

[@tracyking1489]

New homes are build so cheap and prices are high.

[@SachsRealty]

I’ve seen some pretty sloppy new builds.

[@Seafarer62]

And these houses and lots are right on top of one another. You can't burp as the neighbor will hear it.

[@lilpandanesegirl]

​@@Seafarer62 or fart lol

[@TravisPluss]

Great content, Mr. Todd. I try to Like as many of your videos as I can.

[@mktwatcher]

July was when the Fed was anticipating Interest Rate Drops. However Long Term Interest Rates actually increased.

[@SachsRealty]

Yep!

[@KCDEFENZ]

Great video. Thanks.

[@ComedyTelug]

Absolutely astonishing 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@NomadVida]

love watching your channel! Thanks for all your research!! Any chance in the future when sharing info & charts to set on dark mode would be greatly appreciated!

[@Echo-yr1cr]

Waiting on the sidelines with a purpose. I have a sub-4 mortgage. Looking to upgrade soon.

[@Dohair879]

I’m must live in the only area in Florida with very few new construction starting at over 1 million and a 4.5 month supply of old, outdated, overpriced crap. I don’t see prices ever going down in Palm Beach County.

[@frankdattilo1836]

Wait Wait Wait- Do not Buy, let Sellers marinate in their Greed… As a veteran successful builder/investor sitting on the sidelines, housing prices will decline on average 30%.. Fla, Texas, Arizona, Nevada minimum collapse 50%

[@MM-kf3gq]

Then investors will bye and middle class losses again?

[@LajitasRain]

I live in the Dallas area, I hope you are right.

[@frankdattilo1836]

@ buyers should & can step in asap

[@mwilliams82684]

I’m in Denver. We have builders with 30+ homes sitting and zero buyers! I was just at oakwood homes and they are doing anything to get you to sign 😆

[@shanerogers9386]

@@MM-kf3gqhow much can they rent a pile of ashes for ?

[@garyericinvestramberg1182]

Keep up the GREAT Work here🤴🥇👏 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟

[@garyericinvestramberg1182]

Hope you can get Melody on again soon? You two ROCK together🥇🥇 ps I have been a RE licenses Realtor Broker since 1976 in Michigan. YOU really know what you're talking about👏

[@SachsRealty]

I appreciate your comment 🙏

[@richeyweinstein7706]

Ok Florida, where are you moving to?

[@ricric8348]

Is it better to get "year end" deal or wait a few months for prices to drop? Thanks

[@stevenmccallan9202]

Up here in NE, new construction starts at 800k or so and goes up to multiple millions. Affordable housing here is an oxymoron.

[@calhitmen]

I live in Boise, ID and I'm just not seeing what the article is saying. I'm not an industry professional but I keep a very close eye on the market. What I am seeing is new homes sitting on the market and existing homes priced $20k-35k below new home market value, sell within a few days. Maybe I am missing something but I just don't see it.

[@morganhill2586]

Most of the pple buying are only using government assistance , FHO loans. Still having to pay pmi, insurance. Remember the amortization schedules make the home 4×s more And let's be honest Idaho isn't really relevant

[@ts4009]

We have a new track 45min west of phoenix az that has stopped mid build a couple weeks ago. 30+ houses waiting for stucco. Wasn't sure if they're all union workers off for December or dejavu of... Not much union in AZ

[@SachsRealty]

Thanks for reporting.

[@mwilliams82684]

They do that so it won’t hit their numbers. Same is happening in Denver.

[@ts4009]

@mwilliams82684 makes sense. Not done = not sitting. Yes?

[@brisom40]

@@mwilliams82684 The home builders WILL lose PERIOD!

[@ownsilver]

Where I live in Washington St they are building new homes in all four directions, as soon as they are built people buy them, the only empty homes are the existing pre lived in homes we have lots of them all over the place, I found out why that is contractors can offer incentives where homeowners cannot plus you have to have 20% down so right now it's a home builders market for selling homes

[@ALazyImmigrantInUS]

@@ownsilver That's absolutely true... Grandhomes in Texas are selling houses 4000 sq.ft- 5000 sq.ft ones with 2/1 interest rates that means first year 2% drop from current & 2nd year 1% drop from current then 75K incentives, so anyone can plan there but those sellers who already bought brand new hones from them , currently selling where nobody lived in those houses for even a single day ... are in markets for 6 months... Those type of homes are growing everyday in that Parker, TX area... it will definitely pull those buyers to the ground...!!!

[@morganhill2586]

30% is what u should aim for yet , you can get a 3% FHO loan

[@garyericinvestramberg1182]

Todd which top new home builders have their own mortgage company?

[@AbcDef-iq4no]

The number to watch in 2025 is days on market (DOM). According to the most current "FRED Housing Inventory: Median Days on Market in the United States" chart (released 12-4-24), the average DOM in the U.S. has gone up from 44 in May 2024 to 62 as of Dec. 4th. That is a big increase for such a short amount of time, and I believe this number will get much higher in 2025. Don't forget, it was a steady uptick in DOM that was downplayed by the media in 2006 and 2007, which ushered in the real estate bubble fully popping in 2008.

[@SachsRealty]

Right on!

[@Sruqi]

I do see in my city price droop little not much beck on market a lot of homes and sill on market more than 30 days to me looks like 06/07

[@PatamaGomutbutra]

I notice the listing 2x comparing to last year. However the list price still be unrealistic (they cut significantly later). When the greedy institution investors lost profit they will flood market. We have true shortage of house - there are abundant vacant houses out of market.

[@matthill2957]

Last year in the metro east of St Louis it was like 5 homes available per month. Now its like 40 available per month. But we need to get to 110 available to get to pre pandemic levels

[@laureeotero2745]

And builders are still building in New Mexico. I don’t understand this?

[@cfoster6804]

Building for investors.

[@morganhill2586]

Doesn't mean they'll sell

[@timeforachange-i3s]

This happened to new home subdivisions with unsold homes were sold for over $100K+ less than existing homes sold during pre-2008. People that were not impacted by the 2008 recession, utilized Obama's law that did not allow lenders to send a 1099 to people who owed more on the mortgage than what the home sold for. Prior to the Obama era, people always received a 1099 for the difference of the sales price compared to the mortgage amount. During the 2008 crisis brokers reported that people that were not impacted by the recession would go get a mortgage for an "investment property" find a home that had a 50% fire sale and then move into the home and turn the keys back to the lender for the original home that they paid $200K more than what they were selling for. They didn't receive a 1099 and kept the rest of their credit clean.

[@donaldjohnson-y6n]

The problem now is that the quality of new houses is about 2 steps away from being the crumble-cake cottage structures that they build in China.

[@SachsRealty]

A lot of building supplies come from China.

[@geestacks91]

New home builder will take over the market 2025 they have the power to make it affordable with rate buydowns. The resell market sellers aren’t willing to do the same or can’t afford to.

[@matthill2957]

Maybe they arent willing to, but they can afford to. A lot of peoples house doubled in price since 2020 they got plenty of equity to burn. And going back to not willing to some still have to sell. You get divorce, you bought a new house, you are moving for work, you die. All kinds of reasons for why someone HAS to sell their house and they cant just hold steady thinking they are gonna get 2023 prices forever

[@JulieOrt]

I live in San Antonio. All they are building out here are cookie cutter cheap quality houses. DR Horton and Lennar are running rampant in the outskirts of the city, and we have terrible infrastructure. I wish we had homes with character and that the county or city would build roads to sustain the fast growth. Makes me want to consider leaving the only place I’ve called home.

[@cdavis25232]

The greedy train is about to derail!!!!

[@mwilliams82684]

Denver new home builders are offering rate buy down 5% and closing costs. I’ve gone to several different sites and they all home completed homes 30+ and no buyers.

[@rishabharora3958]

@@mwilliams82684 curious, who is the builder ? And are they budging on price or just offering rate buy down and closing cost assistance?

[@morganhill2586]

Now, watch all the layoffs rampt back up

[@Treegrindertrading]

July 2024 was around the time the Feds pumped out the lies of all the rate cuts coming next year. Remember 😂

[@Savvygal]

Go check out the pile of crap Pulte is trying to sell for a quick move in at Wildhorse in Scottsdale. It is so cheap and ugly over 2 million.

[@joelballard4955]

The regrets are starting to come into play now. From what I’ve seen in the Midwest, the houses in track home communities are absolutely garbage and the lots have shrunk to ridiculous sizes. The pain and regret for everyone who bought in the last 24 months is just around the corner.

[@rossqm369]

give them away then

[@lilpandanesegirl]

don't buy hold the line! force them to lower the price!

[@elw6150]

Love it...."hold the line"!!!! Yes sir!

[@msingleton]

We need society to expect housing depreciation if we want affordable housing. Imagine an owner of a 2024 Honda getting mad because the dealer discounted them to make room for the 2025 model? They don’t get mad, it’s expected. It’s insane this game that builders and neighborhoods play to keep prices high. We need low low housing prices and a rich middle class. That’s a strong society.

[@11conormcloughlin]

The whole market is speculation. People want to say “affordable” but even with a significant cut most people cannot afford a home. People are tapped out financially. Inflation is still too high and every month more and more people become delinquent on their growing debts. The stock market cannot factor the economic health of average people because that too is a massive bubble. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been greater.

[@faithsrvtrip8768]

I can't tell you how many garbage houses I have seen for sale. House built in 1920 on post-n-pier foundation. Total money pit. Cute but not that cute for $196k in Tyler, TX. No insulation. Will need total re-do on foundation with steel beams, easily $50k plus to fix that. Another house, tear down, built in 1905, in Libby, Montana, on a very small lot, for $250k. I laffed. It would cost $30k to $50k to tear down that house and rebuild and there isn't anything, I mean anything in the town of Libby that is worth paying that much money for. Good luck. You can spend $50k to dig a dry hole and not have any water. Dig again. Throw your money into the money pit. I have cash but I am sitting tight. I can't wait to see people get their January / February tax bill and escrow adjustments. I remember my first one in 2002. Shocked me to have to pay extra $100 a month.

[@barnabusdoyle4930]

Buying a new construction house is starting to come with the same problems as buying a house built in the 80s. The quality of homes being built now is terrible and they will be falling apart in 10 years.

[@jtcouch]

You need to utilize Zillow and Redfin data for your research. What rhymes with "bonus"?

[@Valenzuela_Moses]

One thing to mention with the new construction FRED chart is to also compare it with prices. Even tho we hit a recession everytime, prices still went up except for the GFC

[@capnkirk5528]

Those investors waiting to gobble up bargains? They will lose their shirt because - there aren't any people who can AFFORD to rent them.

[@charletonzimmerman4205]

That's good as new houses , "STINK", they need to take a bath.

[@SachsRealty]

🤷‍♂️

[@TS-rd7oy]

Implying, not inferring

[@DavidMartin-hv3mn]

In our area, new developments 600.00 700.000 is the average on brand new homes, and they're sitting, and nobody's buying. The homes that are selling are between 150.00 and 350.00 even too much when they said the average is 400.000 Maybe the builders didn't get the Memo. And realtors are pushing if you build it. They will buy it but it's not working.😏

[@VividCollectiveWorks]

Home building is a commodity in the states. Like fast food. Nowhere else in the world develops like this with these rediculous subdivisions where you have to drive to everything. It’s not an investment. You are on the wrong side of compounding.

[@PHenry-wn3li]

The housing market is irrelevant when the economy is crashing.

[@Sandybeach-w9l]

Older homes, are better built, especially mid century homes. Better quality. I think there is a correlation of unaffordability, and thus have a glut of new homes. How will or could this change under DT? Fed already cut rates, and has indicated now only perhaps in 2025 a rate cut 2x, a quarter point, instead of 4x in 2025. They screwed up our economy since the 90s. THANKS!!!

[@Mr.Moose_777]

Do not feed the greed!

[@petermangano6206]

Todd, so far you have been blinded by what you think should happen (which is irrelevant to what has happened). I don't know what will happen, but I do know what I think should happen doesn't matter, so I devote my energy to just figuring out what is true, even if I don't like it...

[@escanorsama3838]

First!

[@highvibrational2007]

sorry... let the investors take the McMansions and leave the starter homes alone! Starter homes should not cost $400, 000🥵🥵

[@davidwarren9761]

Cash talks and BS walks. Builders will be riding in the back seat on these deals before it is over. They should adapt to a VA style financing where the first 50K or so is covered by the builder in case of default. Beats paying thousands of dollars every month in carrying charges. Pretty soon the builder is upside down in his own spec home. 80/20 loans are a piece of cake compared to 5-10% down. If the writing is on the wall they should do it now. They can always build more houses later when things improve if they are STILL IN BUSINESS and not in bankruptcy. It is all about conservation of capital. Don't let the black crocks and state streets win again. No more Resolution Trust style bailouts. We either fix all the fraud, waste and abuse or this nation will not survive.

[@jackgoldman1]

As always for the past 200 years, home building is the shock absorber of the economy. In 1980, 90% of all home building ceased as the economy had a crisis. The past 15 year, really 40 year home building boom is unprecedented. Many home builders, many small colleges, many businesses simply need to "go out of business". The strong will survive. The weak will die. Perhaps America may die being over leveraged with too much debt like home builders. Protect yourself. Live cash and carry. No debt.

[@barnabusdoyle4930]

It’s not usually the strong that survive in our economy. It’s usually the most connected and corrupt who can maximize ripping people off that climb to the top of the ladder. And the government is always there to make sure they never even stumble on the way up.

[@elw6150]

Not possible when the cash all belongs to the corporate machine!!!!

[@tobyk5149]

@@elw6150 victim mentality

[@Member3285]

New construction price has increased by 50% in Oregon (could build on your own land for $150k, now same house costs $250k). Land prices also increased by 120% in the same period (pre-2023 could find land at about $20k per acre or more, now it is $50k per acre or more). It is all due to inventory shortage (either buyouts for flips or seller pull outs) Mortgage interest has remained high 6%-high 7% for the past 2 years, even with down, VA backed, and excellent credit. There has been nothing but sudden inflation since June 2023 followed by 1.5 years of slowly increasing in costs. In September there was a very tiny increase in supply of homes on the market, but those were still cash-only, tear-down, unfinished homes listed for what is overpriced for a good condition home in need of no renovation or repair. I think this housing prices need political intervention, to prohibit for profit investments in SF homes, and to effect a diminishing return tax on non-resident (investment) home sales so the more they cost, the less the investor earns. We also need a reduction in subsidized housing, the HUD needs to get gutted because it is holding up the prices with it's fluff. Why would an investor list on the open market if they can get a subsidized property income from low income families? It's like having a property management company running your investment, except the government is doing it for free (at taxpayer expense). In short, subsidized housing should be government owned, not privately owned. If a government subsidy can be considered an investment? Then taxpayers are paying taxes to private interests: both the owner, and the resident, are exploiting tax money for profits. Personally, I think that should be criminal.

[@lisaknudsonlcsw3730]

Affordable and poorly built. I'd be interested in knowing the quality builders in the Southeast.

[@jaynawilliams8923]

Here's an anology for you. It doesn't matter how many $100.00 hamburgers you make. No one can afford that. You might sell one or two a day. But Blackstone can buy them everyday for lunch. It doesn't matter how many $450,000.00 homes you build, no one can afford them except Blackstone who WILL buy them at ANY price and turn them into rental proerties for us Peasants of Slavelandia who will "own nothing and be happy". The WEF is winning. We, The People? BOHICA! Gotta unsubscribe. This is great information that is totally meaningless and inactionable for the average person. But it was really great analysis. It's just, so what.

[@bobnankervis9722]

Or do like I did. Refuse to be dependent upon others, learn the skills to build your own home, then do it yourself. Remember there is not just 40hrs. in a week, last time I checked there were 168. It's what you choose to do or not do with the other 128. It worked for me

[@grizzlybear4122]

At some point reality will set in. When the home market crashes Blackstone will bleed out.

[@jaynawilliams8923]

@@bobnankervis9722 You must be in great shape to be female and 75 years old.

[@jaynawilliams8923]

@@grizzlybear4122 And you don't think they have already thought about that? They realize how worthless cash is.

[@Witcherworks]

If you haven't noticed, things only go up in price not down. It's called INFLATION! When the country population income dies not match the few who have more income, the people have lost

[@driverkpk]

Midwest, there's nothing to buy. All entry-level homes are gone within days

[@BlackHoleOfTime]

Problem is Corporations are buying them.

[@tobyk5149]

false narrative

[@erickanter]

@@tobyk5149 Wrong

[@nampmaljr9294]

I'm exhausted. Pandemic, economic shutdown, inflation, home price insanity. Vegas has no inventory.

[@tobyk5149]

… yet.

[@Thor-dy1xu]

"You'll own nothing and be happy"... : {

[@cfoster6804]

-World Economic Forum

[@tobyk5149]

trite comment

[@johnd4348]

Stocks always drop at the end of the year. Companies taking end of year profits and losses. for next year tax reporting. They will jump back up at first of the year.

[@bpb5541]

you said always.... just like most said, housing in the usa never goes down right before the GFC hit. absolutes do not exist in markets. be careful

[@jsd354]

Could the builders who overcharged their recent customers and are now starting to feel bad for gutting them just reduce their current inventory prices and pay back some of the excess profits on sales from the last 3-4 years? Then the customers would no longer hate them and these builders could feel more virtuous regarding their ethics.

[@tobyk5149]

corporations are not in business to “feel more virtuous” or to “pay back some of the excess profits”. Grow up

[@shadowbanned4days]

Dear god, protect your son Trump. He has plans to fix usa and needs our love. He will save our great nation and rescue Israel. Amen

[@annagreco7470]

Trump is a puppet sorry. I'm Disappointed about it. Thought he was for real but he isn't.

[@danedouard]

Both are mutually exclusive

[@cfoster6804]

If you actually read your Bible you know how this plays out and what's next ain't pretty....

[@bpb5541]

no one walking the earth stops the depression from coming... but there are people that will make it much worse. beware the wolves in sheep clothing.