Switch Successor's Worst Case Scenario

[@TGtornadoe]

I really appreciate how your videos are very soft spoken and subdued. So many other gaming channels constantly speak with an exaggeratedly excited tone or are trying to fit as many “jokes” in as possible and it distracts from the subject. Keep up the good work.

[@nintendoforecast]

Thank you!

[@-lord1754]

Nintendo analytics ASMR

[@breadone_]

i've noticed on average american creators tend to be loud and in your face, and british/european/australian creators are a lot more soft-spoken, which i like a hell of a lot more

[@timothydarden6133]

When the Wii U was in the market, Nintendo had enough to stay in business until 2052, provided an annual loss. Fast-forward to today and, well, the income since then speaks for itself. I'm certain Nintendo learned a cold, hard lesson with the Wii U and are doing whatever it takes to refrain from repeating the mishaps made then.

[@elcalabozodelandroide2]

Nobody knows what went wrong with the wii u. News media simply choose to sht on it for decades without a single warning nor any real reason and people trust them enough to kill thag console after 11 million got sold.

[@kailiciousthumbsup]

Soylent drinker

[@BlueEyedVibeChecker]

As long as it has at least five exclusives, it's already doing better than the PS5 and Series X... This isn't a roast, it's really quite sad...

[@PlayMilesPlay]

Cold hard facts

[@elcalabozodelandroide2]

Playstation 5 only games: Final fantasy 2 rebirth. Ff16. Thats it.

[@shantaehalf-geniehero4318]

@@elcalabozodelandroide2and marvels Spider-Man 2, ratchet and clank rift apart

[@fgvcosmic6752]

Do correct me if Im wrong, but the PS5 has a whopping _9_ exclusives now (Wow! So much!) The latest gen is so wildly disappointing haha

[@BlueEyedVibeChecker]

@@shantaehalf-geniehero4318 Rift Apart is on PC. The entire reason I bought a PS5 and Sony brought it to PC anyway.

[@annam6742]

Even if it only sells half as well as the original switch, that’s still north of 50 million units…

[@jamesrgamesoffical]

That would be worse than thr 3ds tho...

[@ToxDuris]

50 million would be a complete failure lol. even the xbox series is going to reach that.

[@robocu4]

Given the precedent they've set of an extended console life compared to their competitors, I think it's safe to say they'll hit any number given enough time. Any kid that owned a Switch is going to want the Switch successor, it's likely to have plenty of exclusives like any other Nintendo console

[@captaindestruction9332]

@@ToxDurisyou cant really look at Nintendo and Xbox and compare them. 50 million units sold looks far different to a company that makes a profit on hardware from day one and has a extremely high attachment rate on first party software. It obviously wont look good but wont be the end of the world for Nintendo.

[@simonlanglois4294]

"Even if the Wii U only sells half as well as the original Wii, that's still north of 50 million units..." Turns out, things can go much worse than that.

[@benwatts764]

4:26 I’m gonna start referring to the 3DS solely as “the tri-dimensional successor” and act surprised when people think I’m talking about some spiritual being not a games console

[@BriansMad]

people forget the ds has 3 dimentional graphics too though

[@ekurisona663]

10% chance... 0. videogames are only growing in popularity 1. they will have 2 options - cheap lite option $200, more expensive premium docked version 2. brand recognition and loyalty is off the charts 3. first party development is exclusive to their systems 4. 100 years of institutional knowledge 5. tens of billions of dollars in cash 6. family targeted content (early loyalists) 7. one of the only innovative entertainment companies (guarantees stream of novel ideas (failures and successes)) 8. treats employees well to guarantee their commitment

[@nintendoforecast]

I agree.

[@oo--7714]

Video game spending has pleataued though even on mobile, videogames aren't getting more popular the console market has already hard capped. Companies have just gotten better at extracting spending on gamers, even nintendo went into putting dlc, paid online subs and mobile mtx games like pokemon unite.

[@goliath2068]

@@oo--7714 Nintendo doesn't have anything to do with Pokémon Unite

[@andrew8168]

​@@goliath2068 they why isn't it on PS5 or Xbox? Nintendo owns 30% and has extensive say over everything Pokemon.

[@-lord1754]

​@@oo--7714You have a stat for this? Im curious. In defense of OP, Gaming is definitely bigger now than wii u era so we wont have a wii u level flop

[@maxodidily]

If it has a mainline pokemon game, I can't see their next console flopping.

[@yagtihs6329]

every nintendo system with a mainline pikimon game has done well. lets hope they can make the next one run at a framerate

[@RakastanPorkkanakakkua]

Fingers crossed for the day GF gets their shit together and makes a giant leap with Pokemon like BOTW was to the Zelda franchise.

[@xionfighter4273]

@@yagtihs6329 Pikmin 3 on the Wii U?

[@goliath2068]

@@xionfighter4273 Pretty sure he miss spelled Pokémon.

[@BronzeAgePepper]

​​@@yagtihs6329 "a framerate" lowkey killed ne. no specific number. just make the game RUN somehow. that's the bar for Game Freak right now.

[@I3endoubles]

The Switch in some ways was an evolution of the Wii U’s ideas. Many Wii U games could be played in handheld only mode but you were limited to the room the console was in more or less. The Switch liberated console level handheld gaming from the living room but it did so at the cost of the Wii U’s dual screen capabilities. I’m wondering if a Switch successor might fully deliver on the idea of a liberated Wii U. With more computing in the handheld and a bit more tech in the dock it would be possible to stream from the handheld to the TV inverting the way the Wii U worked. This could be interesting and make something like a DS virtual console easy to implement. Of course it could also end up lightly used like the Wii U’s second screen capabilities. The main risk would be the added expense, as it wouldn’t impact all of the qualities that have made the Switch so popular, nor would it preclude Nintendo’s usual habit of making systems backwards compatible.

[@mathgod3015]

I’ve seen this rumor, but for most, dual screens where you have to refocus your eyes between two screens yards away from each-other is not pleasant the way it is on DS systems. Besides, they wouldn’t want to invest in features that wouldn’t work in handheld mode. And the Wii U was traumatizing for Nintendo anyways so

[@ThisSteveGuy]

Nintendo has succeeded with the Switch not by trying to be everybody's first console, but their second. If you've already got a PS5, then why would you buy an Xbox? No, you get a Switch. This won't change with the Switch 2; they're still not competing directly with the other console makers. While those two fight each other for most powerful console, Nintendo is still in the position to grab the real prize. Another thing to keep in mind is Nintendo never had as much cash on hand before releasing a new console as they do now. They can afford an unlimited amount of hardware R&D and market research, so it's likely they are more prepared for this console launch than we've ever seen them before.

[@CatOnASegway]

I hope that extra pressure of the Wii U’s failure and the lack of a 2nd handheld console to rely on doesn’t cause them to shy away from cool innovations as when compared to PlayStation for example where every console is basically a slightly better version of the previous all Nintendo consoles have their own unique personalities which is a huge part of my enjoyment and excitement for them. Nintendo is the only console I buy for the actual console, PlayStation you’re just buying to play the specific games. The switch’s gimmick worked really well since Nintendo could take full advantage and do wacky cool stuff with it and software and in how the hybrid design automatically benefits every game by default while allowing 3rd parties to just port games without having to worry about weird wii controls or 2 screen setups

[@cristiany140]

Iwata is not with us anymore and miyamoto has lost any contact with what people consider fun since the wii music.

[@ekurisona663]

including or excluding🤔switch, their handhelds have always vastly outsold their home consoles since the gameboy - and that doesn't include game & watch (80s)...

[@cristiany140]

Yes. Worst case scenario they will make only handhelds. Smaller and with a longer battery life compared to the most advanced, but heavier and bigger portables (western mostly)

[@tvoltage]

​@@cristiany140best case scenerio if you like handhelds though

[@squidwardwithoutaclue]

We literally let the 3DS die wdym

[@ayrton474]

I suppose you mean before the price drop? Well yeah, it was fucking expensive for no reason lol​@@squidwardwithoutaclue

[@travisbplank]

I still argue that the Switch was really just a way for Nintendo to quietly bow out of the home console race and focus on handheld gaming without the bad PR of officially admitting defeat in the home console market.

[@ekurisona663]

not shipping the gba with a backlight was one their worst handheld blunders imo : | but of course that's in the context of all their incredible success

[@AltCutTV]

If I don't confuse it with something else; There was a GBA with front-lit screen before the the back-lit. So maybe the tech for low enough battery concerns just wasn't there yet. Like mentioned in the video. That GG likely put the fear of dog sales into much of the competitors as well.😸

[@LJAlex-]

Solid video, but I think claiming that general audiences won't buy a new AC game due to associations with Covid Lockdown is crazy talk. I think the amount of newly acquired loyal AC fans as a result of lockdowns far surpasses the number of those who wouldn't get a new game even just because they already have one.

[@nintendoforecast]

Yeah, I agree. I was entertaining a possibility rather than predicting a likelihood.

[@LJAlex-]

​@@nintendoforecast Thanks for replying, love channels with a back and forth conversation

[@ComradeSeanski]

i just can't see any situation where the switch 2 doesn't do well. The (alleged) backwards compatibility would be a huge win and I don't see the idea of a hybrid console/handheld losing it's evergreen potential anytime soon

[@TicTacToeCraft]

Do you have a source for the "confirmed backwards compatibility"?

[@ComradeSeanski]

@@TicTacToeCraft sorry not "confirmed" but it seems to be leaning twords it according to leaks and nividia listings. I changed my comment to reflect that

[@bartlett2335]

Well they waited so long that game consoles are near obsolete now so there’s that.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

@@bartlett2335 As long as Nintendo doesn't release their 1st and 2nd party titles on PC, I don't see Nintendo consoles becoming obsolete anytime soon.

[@isuck6049]

​@@TicTacToeCraft they for sure aren't stupid enough to do that, plus they have the most exclusives to release compared to sony and microsoft, including the bad games so it really doesn't matter tbh, I just can't see it happening anytime right now or in the distant future.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

9:28 In my opinion, Nintendo Land is a very unique game developed by Nintendo EAD 2 that strikes a remarkable balance in catering to both casual players and hardcore Nintendo enthusiasts who like to be challenged. It stands out as an exceptional title and one of the best launch titles a Nintendo console has offered. (Yes, I'm aware that I'm glazing much)

[@TicTacToeCraft]

Wow, I was today years old when I learned that editing your comment results in the heart given out by the content creator being removed. Makes total sense, though.

[@nintendoforecast]

I didn't realise this either, but I've re-hearted you. Thanks for commenting!

[@TicTacToeCraft]

@@nintendoforecast I changed "EPD 4" to "EAD 2", since Nintendo's EPDs didn't exist until 2015, so 3 years after Nintendo Land's release.

[@BronzeAgePepper]

you're not glazing, Nintendo Land is vastly underrated. Playing it with my college friends as a fantastic party game convinced me to buy a Wii U and I was shocked to find the game even holds up decently well in single player modes. I was pretty disappointed the hub area wasn't made into a stage for Smash Wii U.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

@@BronzeAgePepper Yeah, it's a shame Nintendo Land didn't get a stage. But hey, at least the hub music made it over to Smash Bros. since Smash for Wii U, alongside a new medley.

[@pliubumas]

Somehow the Playstation is able to survive by simply saying "here is our new more powerful console, our new great exclusives will not be working with the old one" and that's it, the sales are as good as ever and the PS5 has been able to survive only on promises without even delivering a good lineup of exclusives yet. I get that for decades Nintendo has offered gimmicks, but they don't really need to do that anymore.

[@hammerkirby5243]

Minor correction. The Mega Drive actually came out 2 years before the SFC in Japan. MD was 1988, SFC was 1990. Both of them launched a year later in the US so its 2 years either way. Anyway in Japan, the PC Engine was more competition for Nintendo than the Mega Drive. Love your videos.

[@KunaX3]

They're going to keep the current Switch as the small cheaper handheld, will probably receive a redesign at a lower price. They will support it for 5 more years.

[@RETR0_P0CKET]

I think the innovation for Switch 2 needs to be two fold. They need to really lean into the hybrid experience with a system that boosts performance much more in docked mode. Second and possibly more important is third party software. Specifically AAA software. They need to go out and make some deals with their partners for big exclusive games. If it’s not an exclusive go get the marketing and be the lead platform for the next Resident Evil, Persona or the next Dragon Quest. Work with Capcom to bring back Mega Man in a big way. Help Sega with Sonic the Hedgehog. They need a lot more big AAA third party reveals in their Nintendo Directs like they had with Monster Hunter Rise. That is what will get people to upgrade and keep the mainstream from looking at a potential offering from Valve, Microsoft or Sony. I am confident the docked experience will be much more of a focus this time around and they will use a bigger chip that is aggressively underclocked in handheld mode and then uses additional cooling in the dock to push clocks well beyond what the handheld cooling solution could handle on its own. This is the type of innovation they can use to stay ahead of the competition and offer a truly compelling hybrid experience. People can get their fill of any franchise in gaming and we all go through ups and downs with genres. Nintendo needs to start competing on the third party AAA front in terms of quality content even if they aren’t going to compete on the technology front.

[@Loanshark753]

Maybe liquid metal as that substantially improves performance especially with small heatsinks and less so with larger ones making it perfect for a hybrid console. If you are curious check out the Linus Tech Tips video about liquid metal in a laptop, desktop PC temperature decreases are much less impressive and therefore largely uninteresting.

[@BronzeAgePepper]

​@@Loanshark753 Nintendo is probably not even considering anything like that until it's had years of proven results in the market. They're the opposite of "new/shiny and possibly unreliable." Old and reliable and can withstand the test of time.

[@kcidd12]

I would be nice to have metroid prime 4 with xenoblode x plus content as their launch titles..

[@Stephen-Fox]

The one factor about the introduction of the DS to... Allegedly not replace the GBA but the thing had a GBA cartridge slot on it... I think you missed in this overall analysis is the feeling at the time that it was a response to the PSP - That if Sony hadn't have launched a handheld that so obviously was more technologically advanced than the GBA Nintendo wouldn't have replaced the GBA as quickly as they did.

[@nintendoforecast]

Yes, that's a good point. (Shows how much I think about PS!!)

[@nathanstevenson100]

I would love if they added some sort of Wii U-like functionality with the dock having some sort of chip that let's it play duel screen games like DS and Wii U ports, but of course still maintaining the ability to play in the same way the current switch does. Not sure how popular this would be, but it's something that would make me excited for it.

[@Cyberbrickmaster1986]

Given the current state of console gaming, it's not competition they should worry about. It's relevance. As long as they continue to have support, a great line of games and providing it at an affordable price, then people will have a reason to continue buying their systems. But if they follow down the path of Sony and Microsoft, then they'll eventually find themselves having to make games on PC, which would be a nightmare for the company to have to resort to.

[@PixelPikmin]

I think it’ll still sell insanely well, I mean it’s a combination of handheld and home console markets. It’s also going to be launching with Pokemon Legends ZA, Metroid Prime 4, and very likely a new 3D Mario /Mario Kart. Regardless of people saying GTA VI is the only thing that matters next year, people will still gravitate towards a new console

[@luigigrabspam4596]

Are we really sure Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon Legends ZA is coming to switch 2 we still have no idea when this thing will release

[@fishyperil2153]

Nintendo doesn't have to worry about GTA or anything else for that matter, they only need to worry about not fucking this up themselves

[@LUN4RA]

@@luigigrabspam4596uh, yes? metroid prime 4 may is not going to be a switch 2 exclusive but the new pokemon is for sure gonna be a switch 2 exclusive

[@Zetchzie]

I just want another DS entry

[@htsunmiku]

Fr. I'm really gonna miss dual screen games but I understand most devs won't care now

[@Cilvathorne]

Checklist is: Explain that it’s a different thing Explain why it’s better Explain why it’s different Don’t put every Switch 2 game on Switch 1

[@user-wb8iu1hl6i]

Sequels of anything rarely sell more than the original. I expect the Switch 2 to be the GBA to the Switch’s Gameboy. Just a higher horsepower version of the same thing that sells about 70-75% of the original’s units. Which in the Switches and GameBoy’s cases was massive so it will still be successful. Probably around 80 million total sales

[@MANUELEYTOR]

As a poor person living in a poor country my only concern is if it can be hacked. If it does then I'm all in on day 1.

[@ravenebony2267]

You want to hack it for...?

[@MANUELEYTOR]

@@ravenebony2267 piracy

[@MrPoeGhost]

@@ravenebony2267 What else do you hack a console for? Emulators, bro. ROMs. Utility apps Nintendo will never add. Themes. e t c e t e r a

[@oceanacemafer]

@@ravenebony2267 Free software? idk

[@markel3353]

Mumu pikin

[@EnigmaticGentleman]

Worth noting that Pokemon did have a spinoff on 3ds in 2012 that they majorly pushed, didn't do well critically or commercially though.

[@teapotsticker2809]

Banger video! I think that if the Switch 2 launches around the same window as the Switch did, Nintendo could be locked in to being successful if by the end of the year there are successor-exclusive new Mario Kart, Super Mario, and Luigi's Mansion games + Pokemon Legends Z-A is cross-gen. Bonus if exclusive Animal Crossing and/or Super Smash Bros games show up. What I wonder about is if there'll be original first-party Switch game releases past 2025. There aren't that many quality Wii U games left to port, nor are there that many consistently-rumored titles (like Fire Emblem 4 remake) left. I think they're saving most of what's left of the Switch in their back-pocket until they can gauge whether or not the successor is, well, a success. If it is, I can see what remains being released by the end of the year, maybe one or two titles early 2026. Otherwise, I can see them being spaced out a bit and going well into, but not past, 2026. Exciting times!

[@bizarduno]

Funnily enough, I am one of those weirdos that didn’t play BotW but I did pick up TotK.

[@misterjohn2]

I had a dream about the reveal trailer for the “Switch Attach.” It was a chunky gba lookin thing with a carabiner at the top so you could “attach” it to things lol.

[@Tokmurok]

The fact that Playstation and Xbox have fallen off so hard recently gives Nintendo a chance to steal their old player. I think the future will just be Nintendo and PC, for now.

[@PlushroomKingdomTV]

You should make a video on what you think the Nintendo switch successors home menu will like. Id love to hear whether or not youd think wed see themes, miis, and a social feature like miiverse.

[@nintendoforecast]

It's an interesting topic and I'd like to do it. I'm hesitant only because I can't find Nintendo really discussing any of its philosophy with regard to menus etc and so it might make quite a thin video as it stands. I'm looking though...

[@TicTacToeCraft]

Themes like those on the 3DS would be nice, but I doubt they will be added. Miis are gone. I also doubt Nintendo will try a concept similar to Miiverse ever again. My prediction is that the next home menu will be minimalist in a style similar to the Switch's.

[@-lord1754]

​@@TicTacToeCraft Im fine with it being minimalist but id hope we at least get options. They started getting better with pfps towards the end so maybe they are aware and switch just wasnt built to handle themes? Miis will never be fully dead i think theyll always port over a basic mii maker

[@TicTacToeCraft]

@@-lord1754 I wish we had gotten home menu themes similar to the ones on the 3DS. I wouldn't have cared if they had been NSO-exclusive or cost money like some of the 3DS ones.

[@-lord1754]

@@TicTacToeCraft Agreed

[@KunaX3]

499$ is not a good price for Switch 2

[@cristiany140]

What if the switch 2 result to be more powerful than steam deck but with longer battery life(I doubt it but whatever)

[@zacwoods]

@@cristiany140not possible to do. Just does not logically work that way. Their best bet is to make a home console and turn the Switch into its new Game Boy/DS when it gets a ton of great ports people didnt think were possible.

[@KunaX3]

@@cristiany140 I think it will he more powerful than the steamdeck, but still 500$ will be a hard sell.

[@oo--7714]

​@@cristiany140the rog ally x is that but the price is steep at 800 dollars

[@fgfhjfhjfbhfghf5771]

If Switch 2 doesn't have a Star Fox game then i hope it fails

[@funnydotyes]

with how sony and microsoft are fumbling the 9th gen its likely a switch with the power of a ps4 will sell very well

[@danielgrezda3339]

One idea is a basic switch 2 and a switch 2 vr with more power later on. Treat it like the new 3ds or dsi, if it's not that popular like the new 3ds that's fine, if it's really successful like the dsi than they can make it the next big thing.

[@RakastanPorkkanakakkua]

I wonder what emerging tech is going on that haven't reach mainstream. Touch screens and gyroscopes/motion senses were fairly new for most people when Nintendo reviewed the DS and Wii. If they could find something like this for the Switch successor, they could strike gold.

[@-lord1754]

Only thing i can think is VR but i doubt that

[@BronzeAgePepper]

​@@-lord1754 The VR market is very much in full swing since 2023. I just hope Valve and others step their game up, they can't be getting their lunch taken by freaking Zucc of all people.

[@-lord1754]

@@BronzeAgePepper I agree i just dont think VR would be specifically what ninty does. Could be wrong tho

[@QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4]

@@-lord1754Modularity? Just add all sort of thing to the system. Allows for continuous innovation

[@pliubumas]

No chance it's VR. Still way too expensive technology, hard to imagine the console would have enough power without losing portability, not really suitable for a family-centered console (many parents would hate their kids being on VR all the time). And it seems the potential market size is quite limited after all.

[@Clodd1]

Nobody's talking about this, but they might go back to splitting handheld and home consoles again. It’s a tricky situation, but at the end of the day, it's all about the games.

[@rayfox362]

I don’t think this is happening unless they do something very innovative with a home console, like a machine that has VR as its main focus. But sources we’ve seen do not point in that direction at all. Also, they barely can keep up with providing games for one console let alone two of them. It would have been nice to see more 1st party titles on the Switch. A lot of the ones we got were originally developed for the Wii U

[@zacwoods]

@@rayfox362they dont need to keep up with anything. New console is a home console getting all the new games and Switch becomes the DS. It just keeps getting more and more impossible ports as people master the chip set.

[@fgfhjfhjfbhfghf5771]

They better not. Hybrid should be the gold standard for all systems

[@rayfox362]

@@zacwoods you think the switch has an entire generation worth of games left in it without Nintendo supporting it with first party titles?

[@zacwoods]

@@rayfox362 I’m not saying totally not support it I’m saying use it as if it was the handheld console and not the home one. Meaning it will still get first party games but it will get first party games like a 3DS would get. A Pokémon game. A Mario sidescroller game. Etc… Games that dont take much processing power but can absolutely sell well. There are other IP’s like star fox, f-zero and ice climbers that can also have sequels put onto the Switch with no hardware drawbacks seeing as the last games for all of those franchises we’re on previous consoles already.

[@wyattmontgomery2481]

There’s one thing I have been wondering about Nintendo, and it is something that is so far in the future that it may seem weird that I have pondered this. But how will they handle the strength of their IP in future generations as copyrights for their oldest games expire and their characters go public domain? I realize that Super Mario Bros won’t be public domain until 2081 and current US copyright law, and therefore we all will either be really old or dead by that point. But Nintendo’s brand is meant to be timeless and for all generations. How will they adapt as competitors gain the legal freedom to use their characters without permission for games outside of their own hardware?

[@speedslider3913]

By 2081, I think we'll have bigger problems than Nintendo IPs. The way things are looking, climate change won't be acted on enough to stop it, and Japan already has an issue with tsunamis, so with sea levels rising...

[@BrainWasherAttendent]

By 2081 this world won’t support video games as we know it. Enjoy your time with Nintendo while you can.

[@wyattmontgomery2481]

@@BrainWasherAttendent That’s been a claim for decades now and hasn’t happened. Sure video games will inevitably change but you’re implying Nintendo won’t be part of that change. As a business, Nintendo operates itself now to make money with full intent to sustain itself well into the future.

[@nintendoforecast]

Great question. Ultimately though, it's not the characters that make Nintendo but the gameplay and the question will be whether Nintendo of the 2080s can still capture the same magic. If they can, they truly will be miraculous since the likelihood has to be that their star will dim over time. And if they can't, the fact that others are doing different things with their characters won't matter so much.

[@wyattmontgomery2481]

@@nintendoforecast Thanks for the reply! What I would say to your point is that I would assume Nintendo will nurture their philosophy for gameplay to future generations of team members. We see that even now with the old guard passing on their wisdom to the younger members of the company. In terms of others using their characters in the 2080s and beyond, the best conclusion I can come to with it is that they’ll still have a 95 year head start over everyone, as iterative elements and designs of later works would still be under copyright until a later date. Still though, all of the characters within the Mario series have remained relatively static in their base design since the GameCube and Wii eras. My point of bringing this all up is to say that I can see that, within our lifetimes, we may see some design changes in characters like Mario that will be under fresh copyright protections.

[@brianwright9215]

I've always believed the Switch successor should be as much of a "Switch 2" your system as much as possible and then the "Switch 3" should be the more innovative system. Switch 2 only needs to carry Nintendo over until the 1st or 2nd year of PS6 🙏🏿 Great video 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿

[@BrainWasherAttendent]

I think the actual design of the system will be more important. It needs to seem “new” and ergonomically improved and actually feel like a step ahead.

[@BubblegumSempai]

Black and White 2 only overlapped with the 3DS because it wasn't a global release. Pretty sure the 3DS wasn't out in Japan when Black White 2 came out in Japan. A better comparison would be that Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon came out after the Switch was released.

[@user-vi4xy1jw7e]

That's not correct. In Japan, 3DS launched in 2011. Black and White 2 came out in 2012.

[@JackFoxtrotEDM]

The Switch has been on its last legs for so long, and games have to make so many compromises to run on it. I have a feeling the Switch 2 has been in development for so long, that by the time it comes out, it'll already be outdated in some form or another.

[@dreamgood130]

The TOTK and BOTW comparison is such a good example and now has me kinda nervous that the switch 2 may not be different enough for the masses. But I have to think Nintendo of all companies won’t come out with basically the same console again. Let’s hope

[@lkhb8141]

I'm very worried for the next system. (I am excited for it of course and it will do 'well' enough I'm sure) The Switch has been such an unexpected hit and home-run in terms of sales, it's 'gimmick' once again revolutionising the gaming industry and due to being 'underpowered', thus quicker to develop for and cheaper, which makes it more accessible and to have pretty much all of the WiiU catalogue to fall back on really helped bolster the line up and fill out the gaps. But exactly as you say, looking at Nintendo's history, it has very often followed up a hit with a 'flop' in terms of what investors expect in terms of sales. I see three major problems for the next system. One, you were one of the first to highlight Japan's economic strifes and weak yen at the moment and how it could relate to the next system. Nintendo being a multi billion pound international company, I really hope a company of that size would have cash reserves in other currencies as an emergency for this exact situation. However even Sony who is richer and more global, has just astronomically increased all of it's products in Japan...so maybe the trading and procuring from third party companies to produce the systems, has to happen in the local currency, where the company is registered? I don't know, however the successor being more expensive would heavily impact its sales. Not for core gamers but the casual market, where the mass and profit lies, won't find the console as accessible. Also the form factor is a worry too. The Switch was such a great implementation of a true hybrid form factor that it would almost be ludicrous to not continue with it (however Nintendo does do whatever it wants and doesn't always do the rational and logical next step), however having a Switch 2, which has better graphics won't be enough for many to distinguish the difference or see the need to upgrade. Especially if there still will be many cross platform games due to the Switches enormous install base. Also again like with the WiiU, a casual consumer or parent will think, 'I just bought my child this OLED version 2 years ago, they are not getting the same thing again' especially when it's most likely will be a lot more expensive. My third worry is the success of this system. For shareholders anything less than what this system has been selling will be seen as a 'failure' in comparison and there is now an unrealistic pressure and expectation for Nintendo to do the same or if not exceed what it just has achieved...(capitalism for you..) and it's just not realistic in todays climate with inflation, everything costing more and more graphically intense games taking longer to develop and the novelty of a hybrid not special anymore with many imitators and rivals on the market now....On a positive side I think the Switch has won back the trust of certain 3rd party developers who felt it was not cost effective to develop a special lower spec version of their games and that they won't see their audience on a Nintendo system but due to the Switches success and missing out on that install base, they will develop for Nintendo again which is exciting but these developers will pull out again as soon as they see the system isn't selling very high numbers or if it's too cumbersome and expensive to port/develop for, which could lead to even longer gaps in the new system's line up resulting in a vicious circle of even less sales and so on. The fans will buy it and it will do well with it's own IPs but Nintendos own developers haven't been developing for a higher end chip or graphical fidelity yet so it will take longer in the beginning (like when first developing in HD for WiiU) and Nintendo can't really afford years of droughts especially with fickle third party support if it doesn't sell extremely well right out of the gate. The feared price of it due to the weak yen and general inflation and the novelty of hybrid having worn off and who knows we might even have a Xbox and even a Play Station handheld again by the end of 2025, so it potentially releasing so late or so much later than anyone expected worries me a lot. I hope investors and Nintendo can see and build the system to a success even if it 'only' achieves half of what the Switch managed. But mainly also just worried how long graphically impressive games take to develop...I'm actually pleased Nintendo is rumoured to be using an already over 2 year old Nvidea chip on and older Ampere architecture at this point since they might be forced into a graphical sweet spot with an older chip that is quicker to develop for since it can't do PS5 or Xbox series X level of graphics anyway and they can keep a steady stream of content coming to their next platform. I'm also not seeing DLSS as some sort of magical bullet to make everything run 60fps and look 4K. I just don't see that running or working effectively on a cheaper handheld with a 2 year old chip in it. So I hope everyone tampers their expectations. Nintendo will always prioritise price and battery for a handheld system. As long as the graphics will be base PS4 level, get loads of great first party games, some PS4 gen ports, not cost a fortune and successful enough to get a healthy amount of support for a full generation, I'll be happy (Just not sure investors will be and thus management at Nintendo)

[@YeeHawRev]

Video is great! Keep it up man, subbed! I will say, there seems to be audio cuts- maybe it’s just my headphones but you may need to mix audio cuts more to ensure they’re not as ‘choppy’

[@nintendoforecast]

Thank you! Not sure about the audio cuts - I'll have a look.

[@YeeHawRev]

@@nintendoforecast of course! It improved drastically near the end half of the video but the beginning was more noticeable

[@GamingMyWholeLife]

Fantastic Video. Really enjoyed

[@AlexanderStarshadow99]

If they consistently release good games everything will be fine

[@ThatguycalledJoe]

It'll fail if they decide to call it the Switch U or something stupid like that.

[@cristiany140]

Xbox One was a more confusing name if you ask me.

[@SnaabbeamSneebers]

Literally nothing is worse than "New Nintendo 3ds"

[@Miguel-jq6ol]

Aside from some big flagship titles I think graphical/performance updates for backwards compatible games are needed. They'll need that extra nudge to convince people to transition over their existing games libraries if this an evolution. Metroid prime 4 being a gold marketing opportunity for this as it's great already but picture it with even more power behind it. Same goes for your Zeldas and Xenoblades, games that push the switch to its limit but could be even better. Even notorious examples like the latest pokemon games (Though the issue there was more the devs experience with open worlds than the switch's capability).

[@ThePaulineu]

4:53 The 3DS was also responsible for the impressive revival of the fire emblem franchise!

[@Oxycircuit]

The success of previous Nintendo consoles were predetermined for longevity. You'd be surprised how high consciously sociopathic Nintendo is they hold back to sike out the competition and it's working. Just so much that goes on behind closed doors in such a hyper competitive environment.

[@CasualViewer-t4f]

The Switch had BotW, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 in its first year. That will be near impossible to match for the Switch 2 release. Hopefully Pokémon Legends delivers… Edit: The biggest challenge will be keeping the system affordable in Japan.

[@ekurisona663]

N's market cap is 1/15th that of the largest companies in the world (trillion dollar companies like MS and NVIDIA) - let that sink in for a minute...$73B...to look back at that little gray 8 bit box 40 years ago...N is truly one of the greatest stories ever told in business...

[@SnaabbeamSneebers]

Yeah it's actually wild. I'm 36 years old and one of my first memories is my family playing NES and then super NES. I'm not a spring chicken but they've been relevant for so long

[@diegoarmando5489]

My man Slade. Be sure to visit the Shrine as soon as you can and give him that Power Water.

[@PlayMilesPlay]

If they only make a more powerful Switch with no new features, I think they'll do just fine. They don't have the edge on the hybrid concept anymore, and Microsoft could very well come up with a similar concept, but backward compatibility w/ Switch alone would carry them forward(with fps boost). Just... as long as they learned from the WiiU, which had the same advantages. Keep the branding clear and name it "Switch 2".

[@goldmemberpb]

Nintendo's console strat is to announce the next gen as a " third pillar", so that if it flops, they can just keep the old system chugging along.

[@nourata.5893]

I think if the switch successor has backwards compatibility and Zelda and Mario launch titles. It will be just as successful or more than the switch.

[@Adam-oy6nc]

Do you think there is any reason behind the alternating pattern of Nintendo's home consoles between successes and failures? Is it just a coincidence or is there an underlying cause?

[@BulbminFan]

I like this question. Replying to boost

[@ItsMeChair1]

Wii was very much an anomaly. If we don’t count that, it was just a downward curve until the switch.

[@nintendoforecast]

They all had different flaws and as @ItsMeChair1 says, the Wii was the only console to interrupt the downward trajectory (and then only for a few years). Sure, Famicom did really well but it had almost no competition when it launched. The handheld market has always been Nintendo's stronger suit and if you adjust for the fact that GBA was on the market for such a short time, the only one to wobble was the 3DS due primarily to a weak launch and Nintendo being at a low ebb in this era generally.

[@LJAlex-]

Can you please help me find the sales data that shows this? I've heard this claim before but I cannot verify it. The only sales data I can find is that when combining handheld and home console sales, their sales look like a success followed by a flop, repeating. When you look at exclusively home console sales, every console since the NES was doing worse and worse in sales. Wii had a spike, but Wii U followed in the previous downward trajectory. Then of course switch was another spike. But before the Wii, there were no outliers of success in the home console market for Nintendo. I'm assuming it's just a perceived "flop" or "success" due to external factors such as game libraries and competition from others, not the raw sales numbers.

[@nintendoforecast]

Nintendo's website has incredibly detailed sales breakdowns going back decades: www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/historical_data/index.html

[@Wykesidefruitmachine]

This sounds like that Top Hat bell.

[@realauger96]

Can you do a best case scienero video?

[@nintendoforecast]

Oh, fantastic idea. I've got a load of videos I'm working on right now so no guarantees... but...

[@realauger96]

@@nintendoforecast np! keep up the great work!

[@Dionaea_floridensis]

I highly recommend Dogen's video on "why do japanese like small things" to understand why the Switch has done so well in Japan

[@cristiany140]

A yes. The fact that square enix released dragon quest xi on the 3ds at the same time at the ps4 version... and the 3ds version outsold it (only in Japan market obviosly. Not worldwide)

[@SnaabbeamSneebers]

​@@cristiany140I'm still ass hurt about them not releasing that version in the west. Then the fan translation project fell through. :(

[@Smexbi]

Just release at least 1 Pokemon Generation & it's a success.

[@Jdogtoocool]

I can see it happening again

[@jellyface401]

I do feel the console is going to go for more than 400 usd but less than 500. I don't see the console getting a discount ever too.. so less sales for sure.

[@BakedApple989]

Don’t even put that into the universe man. It won’t though handhelds are huge now, thanks to Nintendo. Everyone wants a second one

[@andrew8168]

If the actions of The Pokemon Company and Bandai (Nintendo Partners) are indictaions, then we can see Nintendo is relying on the modern audience to carry them through. That's never backfired so Nintendo is safe.

[@liamtolan47]

1.25x is the best way to watch this

[@AkdmxVEVO]

Great video, again 🎉

[@Adam-oy6nc]

Wow! How did you watch the whole thing in 4 minutes?

[@jtscorecrystal]

Mario movie 2, Nintendo 1st party exclusives, brand being stronger than ever right now,unlikely it will fail this day in age. But who knows 🤷🏿‍♂️ ill still be there day one

[@zacwoods]

They better not release another Mario movie… not wise. Sonic has the market cornered at the moment and they risk massive failure if they cant match the acting quality. They got away with it once because people were clamoring for decades. That’s gone now.

[@jtscorecrystal]

@@zacwoods okay.

[@oceanacemafer]

@@zacwoods Yes, they are going to make a sequel to the Mario Movie. Why WOULDN'T they when it broke records and was received very well by the public. Would be stupid not to.

[@zacwoods]

@@oceanacemafer because the Sonic movies right now are dominating the movie watchers’ attention at the moment. They’d make more money if they waited a while before making the next sequel. Let Sonic finish his story out first. Otherwise this can quickly become a “Superhero fatigue” esque kind of thing for both franchises if they both go tit for tat every year on movies going forward like some want.

[@zacwoods]

@@oceanacemafer i didnt mean never release one. I meant dont release one any time soon. You dont want to risk oversaturation. These arent even the only two “video game movies” that are live franchises either. Take your time Nintendo. Take your time.

[@drewzi2044]

It seems to me that tears of the kingdom should have had a dual play through. Zelda in hyrule and link in the underground. With the underground much more work done on it. That’s why echoes of wisdom is kinda disappointing to me - that whole concept seems like it was destined for tears of the kingdom, but they just did not have enough time to implement. That dual play through idea would have bumped tears of kingdom up into the ranks of groundbreaking.

[@krayozmines]

I hope switch 2 is a success even tho i don't like nintendo as a company. I cant deny they make innovative games. I think the naming convention for next switch needs to be something that sounds next gen. Playstion naming their systems PS, PS2-PS5 is easy to follow and people know from the name its a new console. I dont want the wii u situation to happen again

[@frogmouth2]

I would hope Nintendo fails like the Wii U again because whenever they’re extremely successful, they screw over consumers.

[@cutecharacterpower]

I really hope it isn't a failure. I hope that it is a success, but not too much

[@SquirrelLvrJr]

haha why not too much of a success?

[@cutecharacterpower]

@@SquirrelLvrJr because considering Nintendo is beginning to change, both internally and in their game making decisions, if they get too many wins in a row, they may become lazy. And if the new generation of Nintendo developer that is currently getting more and more proeminence is taught to not put to much effort in their game, then Nintendo will loose it's "flavor".

[@helmi5045]

@@SquirrelLvrJr Competition and challenge is good for a company and for the entire industry. One company „ruling“ the console or general gaming space would be absolutely horrible. The reason for why we got a console as great and innovative as the Switch is because Nintendo NEEDED to do something amazing that would sell millions.

[@F-ZERO]

I've been waiting for this one

[@Diddz]

the gaming landscape itself on the consumer end has also changed, safely trend chasing speaks for itself, lately all the games feel samey and like copycats of each other (games trend chasing fortnite for example)

[@cup.o.joe...]

I think it should be lesson learned for them at this point. In my opinion all they have to do is market the successor as something akin the switch but emphasize on the power and the games it will provide. It is likely the next console won't be a banger until they have a new 3d Mario game (not a port) and a new Pokemon game and some sort of 3rd party darling, something like hollow knight silk song comes to mind.

[@andrewmares6875]

Great vid!

[@mrmach2741]

I think theres still a few games on switch worth getting enhanced ports but thats out of necessity like totk getting 60 fps, not out of being a unique experience like wii u ports. it would get stale fast if they came out the gate with that, and by the looks of their current line up for the next half year it really makes me wonder what their development team work loads are looking like.

[@walterht8083]

I think it will be a great success. The greatest risk comes, imo, from the imitators of the Switch, like the Steam deck and the other powerful handhelds other companies are creating, like iirc, asus.

[@PER578]

The problem is that Nintendo successors tend to fail. Look at the 3DS and Wii U. They failed because Nintendo just wanted to continue something which is less exciting

[@DrsJacksonn]

True, the novelty (as long as it's something people understand) is what draws people in. Despite a Switch 2 being in the shadow of its predecessor, it might still not do bad in its own right though, like the 3DS. Especially since it won't have that much competition from Xbox and PS.

[@goliath2068]

First of all the 3DS didn't fail, it just didn't reach the same highs as the DS. Secondly, the 3DS's problems was being overpriced and not having compelling games for nearly a year. Thirdly, the Wii U failed for a multitude of reasons, and I don't think "continuing the Wii" was one of them.

[@user-vi4xy1jw7e]

TIL the 3DS was a failure

[@andreworders7305]

1:08 none of them were follow-ups either, which maybe doesn’t bode well for Switch 2.

[@bugrasevinc9696]

Second Switch isn't gonna be as successful, IMO.

[@user-vi4xy1jw7e]

Mind expanding on that?

[@bugrasevinc9696]

@@user-vi4xy1jw7e I think the form factor was the biggest selling point of switch. And I don't think it's gonna be as succesful when they do it a second time. And I think COVID helped alot with switch sales. Not based on any info tho it just seemed like it.

[@greenxclips1733]

If it fails Nintendo will just release all the “hype” games immediately and ppl will start buying it

[@golderzoa]

the Switch 2 Would have to vastly superior and offer enough to justify the purchase. knowing nintendo and their market strategy and the way laws have changed in certain places running on gimmicks alone has worked and will continue to work. but could also severely backfire if the next system doesn't offer enough to justify the purchase. having games from the switch line up run at a full 60FPS and have higher resolution options could be enough for a switch to the new console. and with better Controllers without drifting issues could push nintendo in the right direction alone. you underestimate the standards nintendo fans have and they are A LOT of them.

[@zacwoods]

Here’s the problem people are missing if they upgrade the chipset in the console can no longer be backwards compatible. Games developed for an Nvidia chip set cannot run on other chips

[@boshi9]

@@zacwoods Who said that upgrading the SoC requires transitioning away from Nvidia?

[@ItsMeChair1]

That depends on the gimmick. If they ride exclusively on magnetic Joy-cons, I think they sell comparably to NES and SNES. If they have something else, then I think it sells similarly to PS3 and Xbox 360.

[@travv88]

Ok so lets say Xbox releases a handheld. Now what? What differentiates it from the Steam Deck? What exclusives do they have? That's the problem. And the hardware won't be as powerful as the full sized consoles so they lose the major advantage they had of the hardware arms race. Nintendo wins unless they shoot themselves in the foot. Make a better version of the Switch with reasonably better hardware and put all innovation this upcoming generation into GAMES. Put the competition in the grave and save the hardware concept innovation for later.

[@zacwoods]

It’s not true, because if the switch 2 isn’t powerful enough, nobody will buy it. However, if they change the chipset, then it can’t be backwards compatible. They are better off creating a new console from scratch. No reason to be backwards compatible when everyone has a Switch already. Imo Switch should be treated like Nintendo’s Game Boy going forward. They need a real home console to continue competing.

[@travv88]

​@@zacwoods Nintendo isn't playing for powerful hardware. They never have. The constant fight for powerful hardware is what put Xbox and Playstation in a position where they have hardly any exclusive games. There still is no proper alternative to the Switch, it's still a winning formula. The Steam Deck and anything of the sort just compete with Xbox and Playstation, not Nintendo. Nintendo will not release their exclusives to anyone else and this is why they will win, so long as they don't go for some dumb gimmick.

[@zacwoods]

@@travv88 the Steam deck will dominate the Switch 2 if it comes out because most of the games that are on the switch are already cracked and ported over to the Steam deck and they play better. Nintendo literally cannot outdo the steam deck in terms of power and so anything they come out with is going to be better on the Steam deck right away by that point in time. Thats the big issue. Yes, Nintendo can say they don’t want high-power all they want but you have to remain at a certain standard. If you fall too far behind then developers will ignore your hardware entirely. Why would any dev develop something for a Switch 2 when they can focus on a Steam release that functions better in every way? The only way a Switch 2 will work is if its as powerful as the Steam deck and they said they wont do that because of the battery life issues.

[@zacwoods]

@@travv88 Remember, Nintendo games get hacked before they even launch. They dont have to release anything onto the Steam deck, a hacker will have it there days before even actual Switch 2 users get it in some cases. They still havent fixed those leaks

[@travv88]

Emulation won't destroy Nintendo lol, nor with the Steam Deck. They're not in the same market. Completely different products.@@zacwoods

[@midnitdragoon]

Nintendo needs to make a wii u 2

[@JT_Toons]

Switch 2 will have success similar to the snes.

[@randomguy970]

Where do you feel things like the Steam Deck and other pc handhelds fit into the switch’s marketshare? You have the example of Xbox making a handheld but really I feel an Xbox handheld would be competing with the Steam Deck moreso than the Switch. Even the PlayStation portal is its own thing really. It feels like a version of the Switch Successor which is just a more powerful switch would put them in the Steam Deck market, but something more out there would let them be in their own market moreso

[@nintendoforecast]

I haven't got numbers to hand but last I saw, PC handhelds had a tiny market share compared to Switch. That said, if they can market them right, they surely have breakout potential. I'm reminded of how in the 90s the more powerful 3DO and Jaguar flopped but the Playstation got the right time/price/marketing and hit it bigtime. Innovation will definitely futureproof them more (but it's also riskier of course).

[@jpuc5568]

I’ll only wish for failure only if it’s not backwards compatible

[@zacwoods]

It will fail if it IS backwards compatible.

[@TMS-Oddbot]

The safest way for Nintendo to continue into the future is with a system much like the Nintendo Switch, but they also incorporate other ideas from their past systems. The most notable increase would be toward making handheld and touchscreen gaming more appealing, because stylus, themes, and maybe even Streetpass make their return. I do think some elements of Wii could also return, however, but that would mostly be in the games if so

[@FoundOasis]

The GameCube was a failure the Wii U was a failure and the virtual boy was a failure. And I don’t wanna hear about how the GameCube has all these titles

[@BrainWasherAttendent]

lol GameCube has amazing games

[@FoundOasis]

@@BrainWasherAttendent it still was a failure regardless lol

[@MrPoeGhost]

@@BrainWasherAttendent The GameCube was also, objectively, considered a failure to Nintendo. That's why they shifted gears entirely with the Wii onward. Even the Xbox outsold it and they were the new kid on the block.

[@onebear6504]

With what's apparently inflation and housing crisis alongside layoffs and wages not keeping up (in the US at least), home consoles doing nicely will be surprising but still hoping switch 2 goes well!

[@cristiany140]

It is not going to be a flop but will sell less thab the current switch. Something like the ds and the 3ds

[@Something_Maybe]

It would be really funny if it failed

[@oceanacemafer]

Keeping up the tradition :)

[@MrGuy271]

I feel like Nintendo deciding to kill off their mobile consoles and consolidating around the home consoles was a big risk, one that paid off with the switch, but might not again in the future. Handheld consoles always did very well for them. It was a crutch when the home consoles failed. Now, all their eggs are in 1 basket, and if the home console fails, they will sink. They opted to make a bunch of apps for iOS and Android which have, on the whole, been a failure that is being rolled back. It’s good that they are trying to diversify into other markets I.e. parks, movies, upcoming museum, etc. but this is still all a rounding error on their balance sheet.

[@aegisleague4053]

They killed off their home consoles in favor of consolidating around mobile. The switch is a handheld that happens to have the ability to connect to TV.

[@crunchoyt]

@@aegisleague4053that’s true technically speaking, but it is not that simple. Every game is targeted for both configurations and that’s a very important part of switch success. Is not just a handheld connected to the tv.

[@BronzeAgePepper]

​@@crunchoyt It is a handheld by today's standards, and it's starting to show its age compared to the alternatives like those of Valve and ASUS. It just has a great software library to back it up, which is why I'm really hoping the next system has backwards compatibility.

[@fgfhjfhjfbhfghf5771]

Theres no reason they can't have an expensive premium Super Switch for extra big games and 3rd party ports while continuing to release games on the regular Switch like normal. They kept the 3DS around as a crutch before it phased itself out and they sort of did it to a lesser extent with the GBA before

[@crunchoyt]

@@BronzeAgePepper "It JUST has a great software library"... Is that just a detail? We have to stop talking about standards as if they where the same for everybody. It is clearly showing its age, and I agree, but it has nothing to do with the valve and asus alternatives. It has to do with the following: How possible is to port any third party game to the nintendo console? and, Is people still buying software in the current version? If the answers are "almost imposible" and "less than ever" they need to launch the switch 2. And I insist, it is a handheld but is not just a handheld, because something else happen to the game when you put it in the dock, and the dock is part of the experience, not an option that you have to buy if you want.

[@yao.aboagye]

It won’t fail cause it’s in the right era, just needs to perform better than this switch

[@TicTacToeCraft]

By "perform better", I assume you mean the hardware performance and not the sales figures, correct?

[@aggressivelymediocre350]

If it can play Pokémon games it will be fine