Taiwan on the Brink: Navigating the Tensions with China | George Calhoun

In this episode, James Connor of Bloor Street Capital and George Calhoun, Director of the Quantitative Finance Program at Stevens Institute of Technology, dive deep into China's faltering economy and its widespread impact.
From the real estate crisis to the semiconductor supremacy battle, uncover the truths behind the headlines.
Plus, get expert insights on China's geopolitical strategies, including the tension over Taiwan and the TikTok controversy.
Join us as we explore the intricacies of China's economic challenges and their potential ripple effects on the world.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at www.wealthion.com.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Introduction
01:52 - The Reality of China's Economy
04:27 - Unpacking China's GDP Misconceptions
09:39 - China's Real Estate Bubble: A Crisis Unfolding
14:59 - Stock Market Turmoil and Government Intervention
17:54 - The Impact on Consumer Confidence and Spending
21:22 - The TikTok Saga: Data Privacy and Geopolitics
30:28 - The Semiconductor Struggle: Taiwan's Critical Role
39:23 - Global Dependencies: Semiconductors, Batteries, and Beyond
44:59 - Hypothetical Scenarios: If China Invades Taiwan
48:43 - The Importance of Understanding Geopolitics in Finance
49:55 - Closing Thoughts & Wealthion Advisory
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[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, I hope you enjoy this discussion with George Calhoun as we discuss all-things China. I was surprised to learn that Taiwan controls 90% of the world's advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Every major company including Apple, Intel, AMD and Nvidia receive their chips from Taiwan. Let me know your thoughts on our discussion.

[@hrausss]

the link i just put is a cnbc documentary that explains the manufacturing of semiconductor machines. if you want to see who controls the semiconductor market it is the chip machine manufacturer there is only one

[@BloorStreetCapital]

@@hrausss It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment an for sharing the link. I will check it out.

[@americanlonewolf2152]

Obviously there are people who disagree. Amazing the number of posts with pushback. People are allowed to provide an opinion without providing both sides of the different beliefs.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and I agree! That's why we try to get people on both sides of the story on Wealthion.

[@vikasgupta1828]

Thanks

[@ethanoswald355]

Enlightening discussion gentlemen! I had no idea of the risks associated with Taiwan and chips production. Everyone keeps looking to short Nvidia on valuation well here is the perfect scenario to short.

[@MurrayLake]

On top of its exposure to Taiwan, Nvidia is going to face direct competition from mainland China. Huawei's Ascend 910B AI chip has been reported to be on par or slightly better than Nvidia's A100 GPU in terms of AI processing power. Chinese engineering is world class. US protectionism buys a little time but long term it will backfire.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

@@MurrayLake It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the insightful comment!

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Ethan! Yes everyone wants to short it but they get their faces ripped off. It reminds me so much of Tesla a few years ago.

[@darwinjina]

Since GDP is manipulated by the politicians/government then is there a better measurement?

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question Darwin and I will ask this during my next interview.

[@Tim_Kent]

Good question; Gross Domestic Income GDI seems to be more useful. GDP can be increased by reckless government deficit spending and by consumers getting deeper into credit card debt. ☮️ Getting further into debt does not increase your income and reduces discretionary spending because you have less to spend after paying interest on debt. 😱

[@Tim_Kent]

GDP is manipulated partly by falsifying the CPLie. When we adjust for inflation using the original CPI basket, GDP is falling. 😱

[@patricklafontaine137]

merci beaucoup 👍👍👍

[@incognitomontoya1131]

Agree to disagree on this point. Learn history.

[@tdavani]

Social safety doesn't exist in the US either and people are taught to shop on credit cards at 20% interest. The Chinese save money and invest it back in their society. You only explain one side and biased .

[@darwinjina]

perhaps, its not absolute since most countries do have varying degrees of 'social safety'. (and also what it means)

[@vijjreddy]

when china fudges its figures, we call it manipulating: but when we do it, we merely classify it as redefining the respective asset values (like car prices go up by 20% across the board, while calculating Inflation figures, we put it as 2 or 3%.. and attribute the rest to - IMPROVEMENT IN QUALITY OF THE CAR

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment but I would disagree. Regardless of what government it is, it's all manipulation. Doesn't matter if it's China, the US or Canada, they all manipulate the numbers to tell the story they want us to hear.

[@yehuanchun]

The simple fact is that China is changing too fast for these outside "China experts" to keep up. As soon as they form a thought, it is already out of date. Only those who are working or investing in China have something relevant to say.

[@JamieDupont-tj5lx]

I cant argue with this. This was especially true with lithium ion batteries, hydro power, wind and solar. There is something to be said about central planning.

[@Mdaddy4]

Agreed. Be interesting to know where he gets his data (better not be all from western MSM) and when was the last time he visited China (better not be over 5 years ago). Otherwise his credibility is shot

[@HungLikeAPeanut]

🖖

[@mattanderson6672]

Thanks guys!!

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Matt and for the ongoing support!

[@michaelbrown5311]

Did he say 'vaporized'

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Michael and for taking the time to view our content! Yes he did!

[@TB-ki1ux]

TapLike &Comment 4AIgos

[@paulvarey2416]

Great interview. Really enjoyed the discussion

[@StockGenius152]

😂

[@manimalworks7424]

Will your arm invade your leg?

[@greatsky8226]

"invade" is the wrong word, because Taiwan isn't a country but part of China. A country doesn't invade its own territory. Learning some basic English vocabulary can help you to title your video correctly.

[@darwinjina]

Couldn't it be similarly argued that Russia is not invading Ukraine, since Ukraine was part of the USSR ?

[@gregmccain343]

@@darwinjina valid point

[@gregmccain343]

interesting comment on linguistics but lacks validity given every major news agency in the world says the same thing

[@frankbeneditto2648]

As someone who has been to Taiwan, I can assure you the majority of the people there would vehemently disagree with you.

[@greatsky8226]

@@frankbeneditto2648 :"As someone who has been to Taiwan, I can assure you the majority of the people there would vehemently disagree with you." Can you prove it with facts? My proof is that majority of the people in Taiwan elect their government, the government of China: the Republic of China.