Taking Gary Black on a ride with Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 11.4.7.2

[@AlexandLam]

Ty Gary Black and Omar! Y'all are rockstars in the community!

[@KahnSkins]

Love this conversation! hearing the back and forth on expectations was really nice to hear. Hearing that institutions prepare their short term trading clients by announcing neg news even when bullish makes things make a lot more sense as well. Long term even without FSD Tesla becomes an energy distributer on top of an EV maker, and I think that will surprise on the upside!

[@mikemulrooney4824]

It's good to hear Dan conversing with you like a normal dude. Makes him seem more real than when interviewed by the media.

[@RobertLoPinto]

Dan? That's Gary Black.

[@TheMixtapeArchive]

This is a really cool format Omar! Hope to see more like this.

[@phntsm408]

Gary needs to drive this so he can get the full experience of feeling of how safe and carefree it is! Especially when you are familiar with the routes you've taken previously.

[@Jkushlick]

I have been using it a few weeks - really like it but not sure how you can drive with your hands off the wheel? It is more comfortable to drive that way but the system continues to give me a message to keep hands the wheel. If I do not it disengages. Any input on this would be appreciated.

[@vietle4973]

It’s nice listening to both of you talking and thank you

[@mphomollo2308]

Finally, a video with some sound. 😄

[@righteoustrademark]

I live in the north shore suburbs of chicago and it works great Gary. It’s close to driving with no interventions. I will pay the $200 per month from now on. It’s worth it. I’m on 11.3.6 not even the latest.

[@lancejones4636]

Awesome video, Omar. On pricing models... I think Tesla will continue to raise prices *for fleet / robotaxi operators* who stand to profit immensely from a Level 5 system. I think there'll be a separate lower-priced option/subscription for regular Tesla owners that will have the "robotaxi network" disabled. Once you enable it, the monthly fee goes up. Think "enterprise" tier in the SaaS world. Hopefully that makes sense. ☀

[@larsnystrom6698]

@lancejones4636 A franchise model would be approprate for RoboTtaxi. The idea is that Tesla want people with interest and local knowledge involved. While Tesla supplies software and know-how, and make sure a certain quality of the service is upheld globally to protect the trademark. Tesla itself would then not be involved in the day-to-day work of it, or compete with the franchise people.

[@AMPed.]

v12.. when in full FSD screen can we please have mini map digit of route line map like we have here in top right screen. have it colour based on traffic too so we can see what to expect! Please suggest to TESLA Autopilot Team.

[@chang-kp9sp]

Can car recognize traffic sign when it is in FSD ? I noticed that the car should have changed lanes when trying to make right turn . Also when entering round about it should have stopped for incoming traffic but it didn't.

[@daveingram1351]

This is a really good example, by accident, of why FSD is worth a hell of a lot - maybe not $12,000 though. What FSD does it turns what is traditionally "dead time" into usable time. My wife uses EAP on long trips, sort of like FSD lite, and she gets books read to her on the car system !! so she gets to catch up on stuff that is important to her instead of having to focus on driving. This cannot be under-estimated and really needs to be the focus of the sales pitch - you know " how much is an your of your time worth to you ? With FSD you get 2 hours of your day given back to you" etc

[@duguyisheng]

I use FSD a lot. I think you need to keep your eyes and mind on hte road. Definitely a lot easier mentally than self driving but it is unsafe if you are concentrating on other things. Still get occasional phantom brakes or unusual lane changes or other stuff. Don't be dangerous with it.

[@knpstrr]

The thing Tesla has going for it, is when FSD is trained and ready, it is SUPER high margin. 8 tiny cameras on a car are almost free which is needed on a per unit basis.

[@davidpearce4838]

Excellent conversation. Thanks!

[@WilliamWelsh]

i used to have FSD cause it was like "look what it can do ! it's so cool!" but for me now it's like autopilot where i WANT it on because it's easier and relaxing

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

We in Europe still have to wait for this feeling.

[@larsnystrom6698]

@WilliamWelsh I would want to decide myself if I hold the wheel or not. In my view, it's not ready until they relax that. I would still accept the responsibility, but I want to be allowed a little more relaxation.

[@11abhishek11]

We in India still have to wait for the feeling of driving a Tesla 🥲

[@hatslapper6860]

​@11abhishek11 that's because your motoring economy is dominated by 2 wheelers

[@mwmatthews1]

I do roll back at stop signs, and people do get impatient. lol.

[@ItsBondoBaby]

Don’t forget to consider how many used cars Tesla is selling with FSD already installed

[@tommornini2470]

Every Tesla has “FSD installed” - just a matter of activation now.

[@ItsBondoBaby]

@@tommornini2470 not what I meant. I’m talking about used cars with FSD already activated.

[@tommornini2470]

@@ItsBondoBaby I know, and it’s irrelevant.

[@larrylotter7190]

When licensing FSD to others, wouldn't it require installing Tesla hardware and cameras? If so, could that be retrofitted to existing cars, whether BEV or iCE?

[@ethanshy280]

I think that’s hard to do. With Teslas, the entire car is built around this ability. You would have to connect to the steering, acceleration, brakes, transmission. Then if you can do it, the cameras still need to be perfectly angled. I don’t think it would be reasonably possible. Every engine has different computers too. Maybe possible, but I’m skeptical.

[@AMPed.]

4:35 - would be good to have FSD voice intent so user knows what car is thinking. " right lane closed due to construction" . The speed limit should be limited to 35mph so that Tesla Vision has time to see and take smooth action. allowing user to go over speed limit causes FSD confusion not allowing to give enough time to make decision. We want smooth predictable car movements. When FSD is on in any construction zone or urban area, it should not allowed to go over speed limit. at 4:47 FSD voice says (going at 35mph), "right lane open, changing lanes now" . Please TESLA team add FSD voice intent and limit speed to speed limit for smooth predictable movements. It must pass the wife test..this is imperative.

[@tommornini2470]

You believe, Tesla knows.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

Wifey does not even use AP because its too slow.

[@mickeymcintire7621]

Awesome content and conversation 👍👍

[@iandavies4853]

Awkward content & conversation IMO. Garry isn’t for turning.

[@Berretotube]

Great collab! One intervention..at night…niiiiiiice. How did you find it, Gary?

[@romanwowk4269]

Great interview Omar. Way to multitask!

[@jonathanmelhuish4530]

It's a bit misleading to say they're "throwing it all away" to move to V12. They needed the previous versions in order to collect the right training data to be in a position where V12 would function correctly. They already changed the architecture significantly multiple times; they're not scared to just move to whatever architecture works best.

[@larsnystrom6698]

@jonathanmelhuish4530 FSD needs to have some basic knowledge to be able to learn by itself. It's much like a baby. It has a basic brain structure, enough for learning on its own. They aren't born with an empty neural network!

[@iandavies4853]

Plus all the labelling IS being used. It’s total misunderstanding to assume end-to-end NN can use video in, action out without infinite dataset & processing compute. Tesla achieved auto labelling, based on prior work.

[@corville1]

When going 10 over the posted speed and passing most cars on the route, will the car recognize a police car when overtaking it and slow to the speed limit or whatever speed the police car is travelling?

[@turbuls]

Thanks for sharing you guys' good small talks 👏👏👏

[@rj8u]

I completely agree with Gary about the end game which is when Tesla will take responsibility for the FSD in terms of liability for its owners and consumers. Your paying $15k for a software that it won't even take liability from its cumsumers. Forget Robot Taxi as of now, but focus first on liability.

[@tommornini2470]

Gary says Waymo & Cruise assume liability and Tesla doesn’t, but that’s a flawed comparison as Waymo & Cruise are selling Robotaxi service whereas Tesla is not, yet. Tesla doesn’t ever need to assume liability! They own and operate an insurance company, and can offer FSD liability coverage backed by the accident and safety data they have, and price it on a day to day basis. Assuming they meet there target of considerably safer than average human driver, the cost of FSD insured trips will be less than human insured trips, effectively lowering the cost of the FSD product, as EV efficiency and reliability lower the cost of EV ownership. As usual, Gary is reasoning by analogy, which is not the way to understand the future. At least he’s better than most. 🤷‍♂️

[@salsej]

It works quite well in Chicago!!

[@Robert...Schrey]

By emphasizing Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, you're suggesting that such advancements allow owners to better integrate their commutes or travel into personal time, making the car an extension of the home experience. In contrast, traditional cars, requiring full attention when driving, align more with the demands and active engagement of the work realm. Thus, while traditional cars symbolize the active effort and time spent away from home, a Tesla with FSD bridges the gap, bringing the comfort and passivity of the home into the commute.

[@tommornini2470]

Great way to explain this FSD benefit. Took a Mercedes owning couple to dinner last weekend, a 30 minute drive each way. They were shocked by how well FSD drove, but even more so by how the travel experience changed. More relaxed, more fluid discussion, zero navigation uncertainty. Changed their world.

[@mwmatthews1]

Or you can start working. A home office on wheels.

[@TheJazzper1970]

Alexandra Merz thinks FSD will remain at level 2 for the foreseeable future even with version 12. It makes sense for Tesla to limit their exposure to liability even if it perhaps doesn't maximise income.

[@gnargnargnar]

Not to Tesla does it make sense.... they have telemetry and data about the actual accident rate. It's why they're self-insuring FSD: they already know what the accident rate is and the potential liability.

[@audience2]

It should happen when it is less costly to take liability and cover it using competitive insurance premiums.

[@LaJuanHughes]

The problem with the subscription once you get it you don't want to miss what's new in the updates

[@andyiska9400]

Works in Vegas too!

[@ty10r]

Someone please tell me how/why he doesn't ever have to touch the wheel to let the system know he's paying attention?

[@supergrape0510]

well done, mars, good video

[@FarmtheSunUSA]

Fantastic video.

[@codemonkey2k5]

I recently saw 60% take rate on the Cybertruck pre-orders. Obviously, these are pre-orders, but that was a happy surprise. Also worth noting that those who have an early reservation are getting FSD for far less.

[@ericchild3363]

Which is why the CT take rate for FSD is so high. Not representative of the wider market, but still a good margin bump

[@tonyggir]

Good video. Lots of interesting comments on the stock by Gary. What the car can do right now is absolutely amazing. 5 years ago even what it can do now would have been thought to be impossible. No one else is even close. Certainly in 5 years it will be about perfect. Only question is how much sooner that will be. I would guess it will be ready in 2 years.

[@gyuunyuu]

Chicago's challenge isn't in navigation, it's in potholes.

[@bn1011]

Why the eff isn't Gary or someone super close to him testing out FSD Beta regularly? Someone in his position should own a Tesla with FSD, and if not, have easy access to one🤦‍♂️

[@Berretotube]

Good point

[@rvboondocker2559]

It does work in Chicago fyi

[@maxpelletier2237]

9:00 It's not just about the take rate. Tesla will create their own owned taxi service. Activation will "cost nothing" but be revenue only with dedicated robotaxi like waymo and cruise. That's a revenue stream that Black seems to be missing out about.

[@righteoustrademark]

V12 does not throw away v11 vision neural net.

[@bevteslarevolution1558]

I think the implications of Autopilot and FSD (Full Self-Driving) are underestimated and too closely correlated with Robo-Taxis. I recently took a 2000-mile trip using Autopilot, and today I’m driving a non-Tesla vehicle with some form of lane-keeping assistance and steering assist. Everyday driving is significantly less stressful even though the system isn’t perfect. It drives much better, about 90%, compared to any human driver on the street, as long as you keep your hands on the wheel. I am confident it will lead to better drivers on the streets. The comparison to full autonomy is not the main focus here. It’s more about how much it can support existing drivers, enhance their behavior, and assist the actual driver even though the main responsibility remains with the driver. I believe this is already a significant achievement that can result in substantial valuation. When FSD 12 with full AI matures, then we can discuss another level of achievement, which could lead to an even higher valuation.

[@jacobnunya808]

it actually did quite a good job

[@murda2999]

Two titans of Tesla!

[@thisisspartacus]

Gary always reminds me of Ed Harris.

[@carjic]

Good talk!

[@datamatters8]

Great conversation.

[@daveoatway6126]

Some of the waiting/full stop at stop signs is the result of complying with NTSA requirements to full stop even though more than 90% of human drivers don't. Regarding the comment about discarding the coded approach for the end to end - It was necessary to have a system to collect the huge amount of data necessary to train end to end. I suspect it was a planned decision

[@lancejones4636]

Yes, and they're not throwing away the entire system. It'd the "middle"... the planning section that's being converted... no real changes to perception system.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

Yes, and it would be perfectly correct in Europe. But obviously not in the US. The US boys do not even have to stop at red lights. For me all the laws seem to be important only if a cop watches. Outside of their view its mostly recommendations.

[@TeslaElonSpaceXFan]

❤❤

[@Goodhello369]

Go on a ride with Dan’s team. I actually support that happening. Let go of fear.

[@STEVEF777]

There is a step between liability and robotaxi and that is Level 3 where Tesla takes liability but still requires a driver behind the wheel if the system flips out. The take rate at Level 3 will be far higher.

[@health101DOTorg]

It can't be argued that FSD is also a safety feature, and Elon/Tesla has been good about not charging extra or making optional the non-required safety features it comes up with, so since FSD improves safety, it should be in the same category as AutoPilot IF it's just for personal use. If a Tesla owner who wants to use FSD to put his car on the Tesla RoboTaxi fleet, then yes, that owner SHOULD pay for FSD.

[@grambo1980]

No idea why they would even sell fsd outright. It should be all as a service

[@peterbroderson6080]

Robo-Taxi in future but look at Tesla Energy now plus the Tesla-Bot, wow!

[@reteplimy1]

You can feel Gary wants to jump the band wagon with the uber bulls :) He is a very reasonable guy which good.

[@mikemulrooney4824]

Good vid

[@legacytesla]

Listening to Gary Black parrot back talking points he heard online with no first hand knowledge at the start... "it's so overfitted here"

[@RobTSLA]

Awesome guys

[@Bestgetwise]

FSD should be standard, and priced dynamically, always available on every Tesla and only charged for when activated. Should be the same with insurance.

[@rctezluh42069]

upvoted!!!

[@cf843]

My FSD saved a man’s life. This car owes me nothing safest, vehicle ever made mic drop.

[@1zuta]

It's really interesting that so much attention is on robo taxis and that their valuations or future Tesla stock price will be based on robo taxis. As Elon said in one of Tesla's earnings their business in utility in terms of energy storage is hugely underrated. We'll see.

[@anthonyscott5134]

Gary needs to view the V12 Live demo video. I’m seeing today a lot of articles about how Mercedes has beaten Tesla to autonomous driving. I haven’t read any of them, but with what I already know, I know that are A LOT of Caveats to Mercedes system that these articles are ignoring, or glossing over.

[@gregexplorer8901]

I think Optimus will happen before RoboTaxi because is les risky if it does something wrong

[@elenahadjiivanova7989]

Tesla said lower production not lower deliveries didn't they.

[@audience2]

All the yet to be delivered cars at the end of Q2 are going to be Q3 deliveries.

[@why6212]

I'm not a skilled investor, but isn't the point to buy at a low price now, knowing the robotaxi will come in the future?

[@CYBERENA]

man wish I could have drink with Gary

[@ty10r]

You can tell this guy is an Analyst. I don't understand how Analysts can't comprehend that the stock's biggest moves come when the average person goes and buys it. That person isn't doing any sort of valuation models, etc. They're seeing things like the Cybertruck unveil, or an FSD video, going WOW and then buying it

[@TheSpartan3669]

Probably because you think that causal retail buyers have a bigger influence on the market than they actually do. Retail only makes up 20% of the market while institutions and their analysts make up the rest.

[@ty10r]

Tell that to GME

[@TheSpartan3669]

@@ty10r How's GME doing now? GMEs small market cap along with manic buying to capitalize on a short squeeze (and screw a hedgefund) drove its movement. The late unveiling of a truck announced long ago and a nonfunctional "self driving" system aren't comparable to the catalysts for GMEs run.

[@lecisko]

Maybe both Gary and Omar are forgetting that it will be a robotaxi where Tesla owns and operates the vehicle and it does not matter how much fsd license costs?

[@BFArch0n]

Disengage in the first minute. Yup. That's par for the course. V12 or sol

[@martinVULundTSLA]

cool omar and gary $TSLA

[@alanrogers7090]

Don't forget, once FSD is able to go live, Tesla stock will go nuts. After all, Tesla only needs to flip a switch to activate it as it is already in the cars. Instant profits.

[@lulumink0]

I like and I am believer in FSD and visual NN. But this is still too many disengagements. FSD is only ready, if there's no disengagement at bare minimum. We got lots of work to do.

[@NRV44]

You wanna grab a drink ;) Let's say FSD at $69 subscription a month and if Tesla has 10M cars out by 2030 or early. $69 x 10M = $690,000,000 x 12 months = $8,280,000,000. They should really consider lowering subscription cost and take rate will be way to higher.

[@Blade70]

Nice get!

[@sam_G0]

do one with dan o'the clown pls

[@ralfhorne-g4s]

looks like it's getting there, but as a consumer it's not worth the money. I personally think FSD with hardware 4 should be around half the cost of 12,000. But I have faith in Elon and where Tesla is heading!

[@inurear]

Market has already accounted/invested in Tesla as an ev-automotive-technologies company, not as a traditional ice-care manufacturer. GM and Ford demonstrated quite clearly that they are NOT going to make their own autonomous systems - even their attempts to buy "existing" projects were met with no real valuation bumps in their companies as the technology was either vapourwear or demonstrably useless. It is quite clear that the traditional car manufacturers will have to either: - demonstrate they can develop their own technologies in house - or purchase/license the technology from Tesla or other auto-tech company People don't invest in a company with that much multiple, if they don't think the company won't create/dominate that system in the number of years the multiple represents - nor do they invest in a company that has no track record of delivering on such technologies - so it's important for everyone to understand that there is NO COMPETITION between tesla and any existing ICE vehicle manufacturer.

[@thegodhead]

ARK price target of $2,000 a share is for 2027.

[@leogala1402]

👍

[@lindband]

With all the advance on AI I think FSD will come for free from factories as all companies will have one to offer.

[@NO-TALK-GuitarPlugin]

Can’t wait for a breakthrough version (maybe v13?)

[@iandavies4853]

V12

[@MrFoxRobert]

👋👍

[@chrisolvera3715]

Why would anyone purchase FSD with the vehicle when in a few years when you want another car you have to purchase FSD again. It makes more sense to never purchase FSD but to pay for the monthly subscription of $200. If Tesla is pushing to get a $25K car out and the person that needs to purchase a $25K car will not pay $12K for FSD but they might take the $200 a month here and there when they feel they need it. If Tesla would allow the transfer of FSD to another vehicle with a $3k-$4K transfer fee, way more people would purchase FSD at the $12K price. Anyone that purchases a Tesla with FSD is going to try to hold on to that car as long as they can because they will have to purchase FSD again and again. But if they allowed transering of FSD for the transfer fee more people would buy a new Tesla more frequently and there would be a higher take rate on FSD purchase. Elon does not seem to understand that fact! There has been many to say FSD will be worth way more once solved but who is going to pay $30K + for FSD? I think Tesla is looking at this the wrong way, you make more money from the agragate of selling more at lower cost than making less at selling for a higher cost.

[@ryanhaha4052]

It seems to me it will take another 4 years before Tesla assumes liability.

[@carsonc1272]

Gary is awesome but, if Gary can project a rate of revenue increase based on previous revenue rates, then why can't Gary project FSD completion based on previous FSD progress??? Based on where we have been and where we're at now my best guess is that Tesla will "take liability" by the end of next year. Multiply that by three for a safety factor and put Robotaxi revenue in the model starting the end of 2026. I give that window a 95% probability.

[@knpstrr]

I think Elon's video was a "proof of concept" video. The car was driving, slowing for speed bumps, stopping for signs, etc... and it technically wasn't programmed to do so. It "watched videos" and "taught itself" how to drive. Tesla more or less started over from scratch to switch to this method, and it already is close to as good as FSD 11s. As input is continually fed the driving will get better and better... forever learning driving with 360 degree vision watching at all times with essentially instant reaction times.

[@MrAlanfalk73]

Hotels with no number 13 floor are actually cheating those who stays at number 14 🤔😁

[@danerose575]

Once FSD data is in and it's 10 times better then humans I think Tesla can assume the liability for their own robotaxi fleet. I think that once it is so profitable and so much better than humans it can take on liability for mistakes and charge $300. more a month or the humans driving can take the responsibility and pay $300. less a month. My concern with Tesla taking responsibility is that there will then be a massively unlevel playing field where any time a Tesla has an accident Tesla will pay a million in damages and any time a human has the same accident they will pay nothing or $100k because of the way juries treat the issue differently. This will then create a dynamic where people deliberately try and have Teslas crash into them to get the money and publicity and car companies may hire people to exploit weak points in the software. Many people feel hostile to machines that can hurt them so it's a pretty big deal that I think Tesla should carefully avoid by being the best and not taking the financial liability for accidents.

[@matthewfe6671]

This drive was a mess. Terrible at the traffic circle. Couldn't handle the closed off lane. Much worse than Waymo or Cruise. They have people helping out remotely because they don't have a driver fixing the mistakes like we saw in this video. But those interventions are much rarer than Tesla. You just have to look at what Tesla has put out for that. You can even look at the screen and see it's missing a lot of cars driving on the road! It doesn't even follow the rules of the road - cruising in the left is not cool. Who would want to pay 12k for a car to drive them, when they can do it themselves - obviously very few based upon what they do now. Also, Cruise has a dedicated platform which can be cheaper without steering wheels, etc. so you are just plain wrong when you claim that the Tesla will be cheaper.

[@grahamCracker]

What Gary and many others may not be considering is the future economic drivers that will push FSD adoption. In the future, insuring a car without FSD will be financially prohibitive. IJS

[@codemonkey2k5]

The Elon drive, was way over the heads of most people. Those who got it, though are understandably excited.

[@iandavies4853]

Garry Black is soooo conservative. His logic is uninformative for revolutionary tech.

[@funkknob]

TL;DR: Gary reasons by analogy for 24 minutes...

[@Nimbus_2k]

I love Tesla but I’m not an a$$ kisser, I would not mind paying 12k for FSD but honestly it’s a ripoff because you can’t transfer and won’t add value to the vehicle, I believe they would get more cash selling it if they would allow FSD or EAP stay on our Tesla Account this way any car we drive with our account (could also be a rental) have access to FSD and would be the best move on their end, they sure need to work on it though since it’s not great compared to robotaxi

[@omm5960]

Tuned out and disliked @20 seconds when Gary Black--who knows nothing about AI and apparently is too cheap to cough up two hundred bucks to rent fsd for a month --asserted without proof that FSD is over fitted for SF.

[@macros4129]

He still doesnt seem impressed....

[@larsnystrom6698]

To put no value at all on RoboTaxi is like saying that FSD won't be good enough for that, ever. I don't think anyone doing that is a bull! So Gary, I don't think you should say that you are a bull. What you could say, Gary, is that you value Tesla the Wall Street way. Do you think Wall Street too are bulls? To suddenly accept that something like that has a value, from not having any value at all, seems to me an inane way of doing it. It's a known and mportant thing in Tesla's plans -- of no current value?