Ukraine's Strategy, Western aid and the war's future with Eliot Cohen, Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast

Today, we report on another successful Ukrainian drone strike against a Russian refinery, hear the latest news live from Georgia as protestors take on the pro-Russian government, and we interview Professor Eliot Cohen about Ukrainian and western strategy in the full-scale invasion.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Head of Audio Development). @djknowles22 on X.
Dominic Nicholls(Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
Nate Ostiller (News Editor at Kyiv Independent) @NateOstiller on X.
Eliot Cohen (Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies & Former Counsellor of the Department of State). @EliotACohen on X.
Episode Referenced:
Day 789, feat. discussions on America with Jonah Goldberg:
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...

[@wendykelling7738]

I really like hearing all the different perspectives from your team and your guests. Very interesting to hear Churchill and Richard 111 dropped into today. I was born among the London doodlebugs late in WW2 but have lived a peaceful life in New Zealand because my father was a Kiwi soldier - mostly in the Middle East - and my mother a war bride from Coventry. I have an odd sense that time has collapsed so that today is a kind of continuation of way back then and we just had a blip in the middle when everyone just bought things. Keep up your good work.

[@jonathanwestwood9373]

Please add more direct interviews from Ukrainian military. They are the only ones with direct experience and the military situation has changed drastically and needs to be talked about. Well done Francis, Please also consider direct interviews with Ukrainian, Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Break away) and Armenia. They are the next independents to fall to FSB & Russia. Please leverage your Telegraph connections and conduct interviews with people from these places and find out what is going on, on the ground. How can the UK and EU help these fledgling domestic countries from being overwhelmed by FSB tactics and funding? Come on, take the opportunity to enlighten and alert us, make us sit up and speak with our MP’s and Politicians about supporting these smaller countries. The FSB understands the importance of our election cycles and are taking advantage of the opportunities it presents. Get ahead of the story to come. Consider the Military strategy that would occur were these ex soviet non NATO countries to fall to the FSB and Russia? Russia will take advantage of countries that are not in NATO first before any other military consideration.

[@evilaquaman]

I think some EU states are dragging their feet on military spending, they might be waiting to see if Trump gets in or not instead of pressing ahead and getting on with it (anyone surprised the promised artillery shells are late?). It's in the EU's interest to not rely on others. I'd like to see Biden harden on this matter too.

[@ydnaharap]

Not in the case of those immediate European nations next to Russia

[@h2didenkov]

EU, especially Germany, has made many decisions in the last two years, that are completly go against the interest of the country and contrary to the needs of its people. It's a shame, it came to massive deindustrialization of itself.

[@evilaquaman]

@@ydnaharap agreed, there was also a question on the pod a month ago asking why are EU manufactured shells being exported instead of being sent to Ukraine?

[@rosssimpson6268]

Even as a serious anti-Trump-er, I believe Trump has a point about NATO countries not making sufficient - and committed - expenditure on Defence!

[@frederikzinn6568]

Well, Germany has spend twice as much in % of GDP (economic power) compared to the US. Furthermore the help Europe is providing is for free. The US benefits significantly more economically from its help than European countries. All this "tough talk" by the US is simply another expression of the US being unready for the 21st century. Trump's remarks about the ocean in between showcases this. If Europe cannot rely on the US it has to make a deal with China. The US with Europe can stay a superpower. The US against China cannot 🤷‍♂️

[@HDR422]

Self sufficient is more important than ever. When covid started we fought in supermarkets over toilet paper. All nations should be self sufficient, at least a little, with food, medication and weapons.

[@davidcooks2379]

I suggest a lot, not a little. We should have enough food to feed ourselves on a basic level if only with potatoes and carrots

[@coke2679]

Very few nation, maybe only 1, can be remotely self-sufficient regarding weapons and medicine.

[@Maja-Danmark]

We learned the lesson from having had all our things made in China We've learned that lesson I'd argue Who would have thought that we had to guard ourselves from the ill will of our allies - well, these years we have had to learn a lot as Europeans. I hope our learning curve is at its end, but democracy as a governmental structure is not a certain, and if an other European country turns anti-Western, we're in trouble still

[@joeyfotofr]

Besides its obvious survival value in facing any sort of emergency, self-sufficiency makes people more secure, psychologically, which leads to better judgment. That would not require an abandonment of global supply chains, merely paying attention to basic needs at home.

[@Gayzenon]

❤Ukrainian ❤

[@user-sv2pt5nc6m]

Keep up the excellent work!,,,

[@rodericksanden9941]

In any conventional war… Victory is a slow grind… Awarded to the game player with the most industrial capacity

[@spybaz]

Not true. The US has great industrial capacity but failed in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan; countries that have negligible industrial capacity.

[@stevebriggs9399]

​@@spybaz Vietnam was just a theater of the Cold War. The West won.

[@uma_americares]

@@spybazAnd russia lost many many wars as well, and always against much smaller countries and economies. Alliances matter 🤝

[@stevenpace892]

So North Vietnam out produced the USA????

[@silentblackhole]

@@stevenpace892 Their soviet masters certainly tried to.

[@georgekatsouris7407]

Listening your podcast everyday from Greece

[@stevenpace892]

To be clear I don't support Trump's remarks about European defence spending but I have always felt they should at least equaled US spending. US infrastructure has crumbled while Europe has diverted military spending to its civilian economy and thrived. Parts of the US have third world conditions. It has always been unfair but saying it like Trump has is a diplomatic disaster. Nobody should question article 5, all our lives depend on it

[@Mattjki]

Agreed! Great comment!

[@Maja-Danmark]

Europe hasn't been striving to be a superpower, and the US has had the military production expertise We've now seen where Europe has failed - one lesson is that a reliance on allies isn't foolproof

[@Maja-Danmark]

9:57 Even a broken clock ... The thing is that the rest of the time, this clock affects every other clock in the house, and time is thereby screwed

[@neilfox3208]

I listen to this podcast every day in Minneapolis MN USA

[@RenegadeSound]

Hi from London 👍

[@wesley135]

💙Slava ukraini 💛🇺🇦🇺🇸

[@juliechristianson8009]

Excellent content

[@dandun30]

A generation of Ukrainian men gone, 😢so sad

[@kacperzimowski4626]

a generation of extreme nationalists worshipping B*nd*ra g*n*c*de

[@davidcooks2379]

All because Europe still hopes to appease Russia

[@RyanBrown-nx8dw]

​@@davidcooks2379 no.. because ur americas slave

[@mitchyoung93]

@@davidcooks2379 Wuh?

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Far more Ruzzians are gone. All because of putin and his minions.

[@HuonStride-to2um]

One of your better , positive shows!

[@tvwatcher1883]

-excellent discussion

[@user-ns4cw2vz2g]

Європейські країни несуть витрати, помірно допомагаючи Україні, яка стікає кров'ю, захищаючи свободу. Але ці втрати будуть набагато більші, якщо Україна не вистоїть і карта світу зміниться невпізнавано на користь Росії.

[@facundolamas950]

Any source to validate the claimed May 9th "deadline" for the capture of Chasiv Yar?

[@ConnorJane]

Source: "I made it the f up'

[@Llewellyn2844]

The Russian Army doesn't wage war according to the calendar.

[@tigertiger1699]

Slav Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@danpotra2965]

Peace, now!

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Yes, make sure to tell putin and his minions.

[@midimusicforever]

Ukraine must win!

[@Maja-Danmark]

I'd question the name Georgian Dream And that of Truth Social

[@kalmansovari6878]

Give Taurus a chance

[@DeCypher67_]

I love when I hear the heavy breathing when Dom is talking as soon as the Odesa strike talks start.. hmm

[@grisall]

Not sure that we joined WW2 late to save Europe in spite of themselves. We joined WW2 because Japan bombed us and Germany declared war on us.

[@gagamba9198]

The USN was fighting German U-boats in the North Atlantic in September 1941. In June '41 the US agreed to send troops to Iceland to allow British forces there to redeploy elsewhere Neutral Iceland had been invaded by Britain and Canada a year earlier.

[@superflyguy4488]

How was The Republic of Cyprus allowed to join the EU when so many issues with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus remained unsolved, and still do.

[@ralphvandereb66]

Because it was partly under British protectorate

[@superflyguy4488]

@@ralphvandereb66 That has nothing to do with accession into the EU. The EU actually broke their own rules when allowing the RoC in.

[@charlesmackey8179]

Good job as usual.

[@cv6811]

It's great to hear the news and ideas from the telegraph. Shame that not all European countries are up to the job.

[@YAMIVA]

I think your sound is overdriven. Love the show, take care.

[@hamiltonau]

What does that mean?

[@williambrown5966]

Great work. We'll done the Telegraph .

[@phillipseiver1163]

Coeur d'Alene Idaho USA, Slava, Ukraine

[@robertsteele474]

Pass on some god Real Idaho potatoes to Anthony Hulse. He only seems to have virtual ones.

[@rodericksanden9941]

During the entire operation desert storm the United States expended 60,000 artillery shells

[@richardmarsden5610]

Toy town war compared to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Iraq didn't have 30+ countries (including 3 UNSC permanent members) helping them.

[@RyanBrown-nx8dw]

This isn't desert storm

[@jdo582]

NATO air power & cruise missiles. That's why. And Iraq not nearly as capable.

[@Jagonath]

In desert storm the US relied almost solely on Air power. There's a whole movie on this very subject (Jarhead).

[@user-ut6ji8my2h]

Why are people talking in the background?

[@ulfsoderberg2581]

We can win this thing?

[@oleksiifrolov4074]

20:00 It is similar what was happening in Ukraine during the Revolution of dignity

[@abrakadavra3193]

Unfortunatelly. Let's hope it doesn't end in a coup of a democratically elected government like in did in Ukraine

[@oleksiifrolov4074]

@@abrakadavra3193First, learn how to write in English.

[@abrakadavra3193]

@@oleksiifrolov4074 English is not my mother tongue but I think i get my message across despite an occasional typo.

[@jaarneal]

@@abrakadavra3193 The main issue is your use of the word "coup". The Revolution of Dignity was a "revolution" not a "coup". The difference is that the first is done at the behest of the people, and the second is done at the behest of elites. 1989 Romania: revolution. 2023 Niger: coup.

[@tonylyons7711]

❤❤🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦❤❤

[@stephencalcutt8396]

Ukrainian government can really be trusted on Russian casualties; for example, Zelensky argued that Ukraine has suffered 31,000 KIA a few months back.

[@rmdomainer9042]

Do not redeem!

[@yuglesstube]

Haha

[@ralphvandereb66]

Flip the figures round , could be closer to the truth , or else why would Ukraine be so desperate now . Peace talks not war and further destruction

[@rmdomainer9042]

@@ralphvandereb66 "Flip the figures round" So 000.31? That is no cause for concern

[@egoncorneliscallery9535]

That was the moment for any thinking person to question the number. There are a small number of extremely biased people who think 31.000 is actually true. The large majority of pro Ukraine people, including 'journalists' know it is not true but deliberately not question it in public. Ie straight propaganda. The shocking thing is that it was so far beyond reason that the lack of pushback by the media proved the propaganda beyond doubt.

[@jhngfdsdfgkjnbv]

“Moscow warns Washington, London and Brussels that any aggressive actions against Crimea are doomed to failure and will receive retaliation,” - stated the Russian Foreign Ministry.

[@rodericksanden9941]

I am 100% behind the Ukrainian effort… But until the western alliance can spin up industrial artillery production… Victory or even stalemate will be very difficult

[@philipporter3288]

Init unless the Ukrainian gets help and fast well yeah it will fall and it's our governments fault the stupid idiot's

[@terryross2388]

Dom: "We know the Russians want to take Chasov Yar by Victory Day (May 9)" How do WE know this? The only people to have made such a claim are Western media.

[@tyllerboomgaarden7344]

They wanted to take it two years ago, all of it. So it's not a stretch to imagine.

[@terryross2388]

@@tyllerboomgaarden7344 Two years ago the Russians had draft agreement signed by Ukraine which would have handed over a limited amount of Donbass (to the then conflict line). The UK wrecked this and now Russia will secure all of Ukraine and ensure it never again becomes a threat.

[@tyllerboomgaarden7344]

@@terryross2388 the only threat is Russia. Also, Citation needed. Also, excellent job at walking on your own point

[@user-wy9zb3go5r]

In the past month, Russia captured 4 towns in the Avdiivka region, it's odd to say that Russians would only see it as "successful" until they capture the 5th one (Chasov Yar). Isn't the recent success already something they can sell to their people?

[@rmdomainer9042]

Fun fact: to a westerner there is no "western media". It is just called media.

[@AlexTrevelyan]

At this point, the only people who find value in these podcasts are the exact same people who have been tuning into these podcasts for the last 2 years so they can hear what they want to hear. How could anyone listen to this fantastical nonsense for 2-years and conclude a) they weren't lying about or exaggerating everything they said before or b) their analysis was sincere, but so incompetently bungled they don't merit listening to. In a couple years they'll do an Iraq or Afghanistan-style mea culpa where they admit they had grave doubts as they try to rehabilitate their credibility in preparation for the Telegraph's future podcast called Taiwan: The Latest!

[@rodericksanden9941]

The Russian industrial machine is producing 3 million artillery shells per year

[@rmdomainer9042]

So they say. But they are Russians. They lie a lot.

[@rmdomainer9042]

Interesting thing about the Russian MIC. When their honchos visit Uralvagonzavod or similar factories, the halls are suspiciously clean and there is not a single sound even though the mic is on. When they visit their projectile and bomb factories, there are usually about 10 people polishing bombs with rags. Does not look active like any kind of ww2 factory.

[@yuglesstube]

Thr number may indeed be higher.

[@egoncorneliscallery9535]

Ukraine's current leader(s) only strategy is: denial and ask for more. When that has finally played out they will leave Ukraine with their money and leave the failed state to the new batch.

[@furgarr75]

❤❤❤

[@richardmarsden5610]

Russian T-90M Proryv tanks received factory protection from drones kzbin.info/www/bejne/aavJZXmjqq50hsk Russian T-90M Proryv tanks were equipped with factory canopies to protect against drones, this has not yet been officially announced. The first tanks were spotted at one of the training grounds, where the gunner-operator of one of the combat vehicles told his impressions of the tank. A protective canopy from the drone covers the top of the entire tank turret, and it also has hatches for loading the crew. The protection looks pretty good and is strikingly different from the homemade structures that the crews themselves previously installed on tanks. Lamp of Knowledge

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Unfortunately the factory makes pig pens

[@danpotra2965]

What a hilarious website!!!

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Here’s a virtual potato 🥔 to ease your pain

[@NeoCynic1]

Their Hobbit accents are so amusing because it makes them sound like ignorant imbeciles!

[@desdicadodog8452]

Excellent as usual

[@damarisquarz6262]

How Ukraines power situation?

[@buddyrojek9417]

Greetings from Ukraine . I have power. Ukraine has many solar farms and generators are easy to find if required. Interestingly the power needs of Ukrainians are lower than Soviet times because of energy efficiency and newer refrigerators and people use smart phones instead of older televisions. So I think Ukrainians will pull through even if the older Soviet power lines are taken offline. Right now Ukraine exports electricity, the grid could reverse if required

[@honahwikeepa2115]

The Ukrainian Laundromat mean that most of the money will go to the Military Industrial Complex.

[@ewaf88]

Richard Kemp, writing in the Telegraph, says that Ukraine only has 6 months left before beaten by Russia

[@davidcooks2379]

If we don't help them. If we help them enough, they will win

[@ewaf88]

@@davidcooks2379 We are helping them, but other countries are dragging their heels. France, for one

[@APW-ry2ok]

Russia will loose it has a tiny GDP compared to the free world.

[@egoncorneliscallery9535]

The hope against reality is to reach the US elections.

[@ydnaharap]

Can anyone answer and verify this statistic and does it soley mean 155mm artillery rounds? - The USA Army and Marine Corps have 155mm artillery projectiles (M483/M483A1 and M864) containing about 402 million Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM) submunitions. Why is there a shortage although they are ramping up thre previous 1 million rounds a year production. Alledgedy the USA has in stockpile 150 million 155mm munitions in stockpile in Europe again verification and where is the shortage??

[@isabelatarcomnicu6536]

The shortage is in Ukraine. What it is in storage is in storage, not in Ukraine.

[@jaarneal]

Even the US does not have 150 million 155mm munitions in stockpile. It probably has several million, even after all of the rounds given to Ukraine, but certainly not as many as 150M. The US must maintain a strategic stockpile of 155mm in order to support a variety of engagements all across the world... and it needs to be able to basically support all of these at once, so there is a good argument to be made the US can't just give all of their rounds to Ukraine. What if Hezbollah goes all out? What if Iran and Saudi Arabia get into a shooting war? What if Xi decides the time is right to attack Taiwan? However it is also true that many of these hypothetical engagements... simply don't rely on a strategy that requires a lot of 155mm ammunition.

[@creativeproducer9035]

Hate to say this but I can’t see how Trump’s position is not fair enough.

[@h2didenkov]

What an Orwellian thing to say about Georgian new law. Every Western nation has same laws. Notice, these people don't discuss what law it is and what it does.

[@davidcooks2379]

We have independent judiciary as well that makes sure that only real criminals get convocted, not just random people

[@dandun30]

They want to turn Georgia into the next Ukraine,

[@mitchyoung93]

@@davidcooks2379 The law just requires that foreign funded entities reveal that foreign funding.

[@nenad6787]

One very important Russian advantage is that Ru army is exclusively made up of volunteers, while Ukraine has effected several autocratic laws in order to force the pensioners, the disabled etc to fight for the homeland, as most ukro volunteers have already been killed off during the years of the conflict. Personnel problem that ukra has should not be brushed under the carpet by western analysts and contingency plans need to be drawn by western strategists lest we be hit by an unpleasant "surprise" when ucra totally runs our of men .

[@burritosls]

The fact that Russia is a democratic, free country, and Ukraine is an autocracy that is already close to a military dictatorship is no secret to anyone.

[@williambrown5966]

Georgia. Normal GRU / FSB Stuff. They will be bribed. Usual stuff.

[@robertsteele474]

Normal SBU Stuff. They will be bribed. Usual stuff.

[@jdo582]

It's worth noting that ATACMS uses cluster munitions too.

[@user-sm3xq5ob5d]

I am not the big historian. But from my layman's perspective I think the EU and its predecessors have given a framework in which to work together and come to concerted actions. All the infrastructure which makes decision making much more easy if not possible at all. I imagine for the purpose of thinking about the alternative. I.e. a bunch of countries in Europe each looking for itself. Which are not bound into a framework of communication channels, institutions and besides organizations, not able to wield economic power. Just thinking about the lack of money that has been given to all the members to improve infrastruction, boost the economies due to free trade. These countries would be much weaker and not able to donate so much in military help. And without the EU there would be not organization to join. So possible economic trade agreements would all be on a bilateral base. And not automatically with a substantial market. So without the EU Russia would have had few problems to have its way because it would have faced a fractioned groupof countries which wouldnothave been able to give a strong unified answer. However weak we regard the actual answer. Might be that Russia would have not seen the necessity to take action? No one knows. But it would have had much more free reign to pressure for whatever it wants. From a German perspective.

[@Horseracingtip]

I come here for the unbiased news🤣

[@davidcooks2379]

I suggets those countries that don't spend enough on defence should give the remaining money to those who do. Freeriding is unpleasant and unfair and selfish

[@rodericksanden9941]

The western alliance production capacity for artillery shells is a small fraction of this output

[@TysonGould-td2wh]

And I am Baltic / Slavic maybe Russian . A % of my DNA

[@yuglesstube]

This is delusional stuff.

[@hamiltonau]

Sure ivan

[@yuglesstube]

@@hamiltonau Anytime, Comrade

[@mikechevreaux7607]

Why Doesn't Peace ☮️ Talks Start By Zelensky?

[@user-wy9zb3go5r]

Peace talks would be the end of Zelenksky political career. Others will use him as a scapegoat and he doesn't want that.

[@stevebriggs9399]

​@@user-wy9zb3go5rBecause there are still Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

[@JohnNaa-cz4lu]

@@stevebriggs9399 There won't be Russian soldiers in Ukraine if that territory gets recognized as Russian.

[@davidcooks2379]

What peace talks? Russia will not stop until it's stopped

[@JohnNaa-cz4lu]

@@davidcooks2379 Probably not until they gain full control of the Donbas.

[@victoriahigman6802]

Trump is so rude and abusive. How does that help? Ok make your point but he is just so bullying

[@petergreenwood7731]

What is the foreign agents law? USA, EU, UK and many other nations have it It requires NGO's to report where their funding comes from Are the NGO's in Georgia scared to have this info made public? Are these NGO's funded by western nations who are undermining the internal politics in Georgia? Have they called it a "Russian law" designed to fuel anti-Russian sentiment? How does passing of this law effect freedom of speech, democracy? How does this law effect Georgia's possible EU membership? If Ukraine had this law pre-2014 would the efforts of V Nuland been outed?

[@egoncorneliscallery9535]

Your arguments are too smart/uncomfortable for the people watching this channel..

[@rodericksanden9941]

Currently… The floor manager at an artillery shell production plant… Is making more money than the engineer who designed the weapon

[@gagamba9198]

Scarcity has its cost.

[@piushalg8175]

Of course a secure Europe is in a vital interest to the US. On the other hand many European Nato members have not been willing to fulfill their commitmens in regard of defence spending.Therefore they are no tentitled to complain at all. Instead of it they have to do their homework and not indulge in anti-americanism. Yes, they have to grow up and acknowledge their foolish belief that Putin was no threat and good commercial relationships with Russia would be the solution. Si vis pacem, para bellum! This truth is as valid as it has ever been.

[@nenad6787]

Trump's words make sense. Europe should pay up.

[@Horseracingtip]

7:57. Trump is right again🎯

[@rodericksanden9941]

Russia… Because of arms export… Has been on a wartime military production footing ever since World War II

[@briandbeaudin9166]

So? Their weapons suck.

[@rodericksanden9941]

Russia is currently manufacturing between eight and 10,000 artillery shells per day

[@APW-ry2ok]

What about the tanks etc they are needed as well,golf carts won’t cut it….

[@gagamba9198]

@@APW-ry2ok In conventional warfare, artillery is the god of war. It was true in WWII and it's true now.

[@APW-ry2ok]

@@gagamba9198 Agreed and Ukraine has it with greater accuracy than Russia ,therefore they don’t need as much ,also the free world is backing them with a 40 trillion GDP. ( Russia has under 2 trillion )

[@mitchyoung93]

Wasnt this guy a chief propagandaist for Dubya's Iraq invasion?

[@bbhima5814]

Oh no, Trump expecting Europeans to act like adults.............................

[@user-zf9jc5yz7o]

what a tossers view.

[@Llewellyn2844]

Once again, the Telegraph delivers a huge, steaming pile of Russophobic bullshit and anti-Russian talking points.

[@burritosls]

It's their job to hate Russians))

[@isabelatarcomnicu6536]

Go read Russian media and be happy.

[@RyanBrown-nx8dw]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂