Ten Day Forecast: Very Cold ECM 00z Run But Will It Come Off???

[@suethomson1880]

Happy New Year Gav. Best wishes from the Thomson family.

[@GavsWeatherVids]

Thanks so much Sue. Will give you a shoutout in a vid soon :D

[@mattheworchard6923]

Shutting down the Atlantic is proving impossible this winter,don’t be surprised if the ECM flips back to more of the same old,thanks Gav ☔️🌧️

[@T_B1]

SSW: Hold my beer 😬

[@cityandy1618]

GFS 12z has moved towards the ECM cold solution

[@nickmoore8954]

Shutting down the Atlantic is impossible anytime, go to somewhere where Ur not near it 😂

[@nepaleseman1010]

@@nickmoore8954 Winnipeg comes to mind.

[@luker2981]

Slowing the Atlantic down with all of the low pressures is going to be very difficult, but with the displacement of the polar vortex I would not be surprised to see much colder weather very soon.

[@colinjennings3661]

I don't care if it's 14 degrees or minus 14 degrees as long as there's no more bloody rain!. Looks like the Iberian high is going to scupper any cold.

[@MK-1973]

Fascinating update Gav, really liked the comparison of the upper air / precipitation across GFS and ECM and the comparison between Brighton on the S coast and Aberdeen. I wonder if that cold ECM run will come off - there does seem to be some support from its ensembles. All the best.

[@stevensmith8454]

I'll hope for the best & expect the worst.

[@michaelmoran1964]

The position of that Atlantic Anticyclone will be crucial🤞🤞❄️❄️❄️

[@niklassandstrom7918]

ooo all of you cold lovers should join me in sweden . stockholm will averege around -11 next 10 days thats 7 degers below normal

[@fefner1642]

I personally think that the Ecm is the more reliable of them all if your after cold in the 10 day forecast. Lets see if it all pans out, 🤞

[@Andy_ATB]

The cold will be a bonus, can we just have some dry & settled weather, please? This mild ,grey, wet & windy rubbish is so depressing.....

[@chrisayling3882]

Very informative update gavin.

[@dannyletchford5746]

bbc monthly gives a cold January but we should wait and see .thanks gav and happy new year yo you

[@jamesbacon6489]

It will but later in the 2nd half mild unsettled conditions will return temporarily but I think mid early 2nd of Jan and mid early 2nd half of Feb will be the coldest of the winter.

[@nickmoore8954]

Only for a week though then the mild dross comes back

[@jamesbacon6489]

@@nickmoore8954 I believe this winter will be a mix between 2020/2021 and 2022/2023.

[@markkinnish1196]

Great update as always Gavin starting to look interesting I think

[@adamblunsdon7784]

Nice video gavs interesting for cold January

[@jonathanstockley4612]

Thanks Gav unfortunate how the warming will not be reversing zonal winds but thankfully a cold snap or maybe a more prolonged cold spell looks likely into the second week of January. We all know it won't last though and the Atlantic will be back in business probably about 2 days later to bring the deluge back.🌧️🥶

[@rantaviiva5218]

Surely, a prolonged cold spell ❄ will take place, here in Scandinavia. Where as 'cold weather High going to Spain' 🇪🇸 perhaps reaches its Northernly parts (eg. Galicia / Basque coutry) and then swirls elsewhere. Thanks Gav & Happy New yr2024!

[@Tha-King-Arthur]

+/- 7 januari it's -30 in Oslo and when the wind goes east then west en middle Europe will also get lower temperatures..

[@austensweatherobsessed6314]

Happy Eve of New Year’s Eve everyone! Glad to see the models re-upgrading the cold spell but I still have a suspicious feeling that something could go horribly wrong.

[@paulgriffin2872]

Some exciting weather could arrive after next weekend, that ECM run this morning was a classic 1980s redux, caution is required though as it could all still go tits up. So many times over recent years we have seen promising charts a week out only for something to scupper it and all the cold runs get eradicated, but many on the forums think we will get a cold spell due to many things being in our favour for once and that is without the SSW.

[@christophertaylor6082]

My first ever winter on the tools straight out of school in 86 & Boom January 87 was freaking cold !

[@pauljames5281]

Lots of interesting cold signs but will it happen as we all know what usually happens. Fingers crossed. Thanks Gav

[@GROMIT9]

Short answer not if that high stays in Spain it won't.

[@helenabela8272]

Apparently us in the UK and Japan (in reverse as their seas are to the east) are the most difficult to get a definite forecast 😮

[@CarlosTheVillan1874]

I hope the atlantic fights back and keeps the cold away

[@alunjones3860]

Does it make any different where the PV is displaced to?

[@alunjones3860]

i find it funny the CET website says "The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.86, which is -2.61 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -770.22 for the remainder of this year" So even if the sun were to suddenly stop shining, the CET would still be above the record low!

[@MichaelStevenson-j8g]

I still think we will get some cold weather before very long gav how long it lasts is the real problem always for the British lsles a difficult one to call 😅

[@Wookra]

Gonna be below -40 here in northern Sweden the first week of January in the forecast...

[@jamesbacon6489]

This Jan from 2nd week for a while cold high north or north east pressure will settle most over the UK but later on in the month unsettled mild conditions will return for a little while then after that the cold in Feb could come back with reinforcements until near late Feb.

[@andy5786]

We need cut the Atlantic off then we may get cold come in Gavin 👍🥶

[@darrenglynn597]

So when is (Storm Henk) going to hit according to (Met office ) is the next (24hrs) with a hell of a lot of (white stuff) also known as (Snow) unfortunately.

[@mauritsbol4806]

For now, expecting one day of cold. Maybe some good old snow if lucky. Really not optimistic right here

[@geoffclarke3796]

Cheers Gav. Hoping the ECM cold run doesn't come off as too cold for me.

[@cityandy1618]

I would like it as cold as possible

[@alannewbury7833]

Bbc monthly is evenworse than bbc daily in london so innacurate always reliable on failure 😂

[@duncanwood2957]

Good old cfs 😂😂😂

[@mauritsbol4806]

I will be using the first 4 days to reassess my prediction for the winter. I think i am going to go upwards projection from-0.0 to -0.5, to 0.5 to 1.0, but we’ll see

[@briancox8518]

Probably me mild tomorrow

[@johnb6723]

Troll from Trondheim?

[@nepaleseman1010]

I hope to god that we don't get any substantial cold weather. Thanks for the forecast Gavin very informative as usual.

[@arbirumasi2248]

will be snow in Albania 😢😢??

[@briancox8518]

Iam planning to visit Albania in Feb

[@BlackRose-vi2yg]

Answer..No

[@briancox8518]

I don't want to hear at least its mild

[@YoLo-bb2vc]

are we seeing a potential BFTE event?

[@hazzao4]

Come on Gav....stick your neck out. Will it or won't it?

[@COVID_Is_Not_Over_Yet]

not happening